 Okay, very good morning. It's Anthony here at Amplify Training in London, and it's Friday the 8th of November. A very good morning to you, and a shout-out to my boys at Regent's College. You did dare me to give you a shout-out, so there you go. I hope you guys are well. I hope you enjoyed the session yesterday, and I hope you enjoyed your golf last night at the driving range. So see you next time. Going straight into the briefing, though, and talking about things to discuss this morning, obviously the main focal point of Marcus is going to be the trade ongoing dialogue. It almost feels like reading the news this morning, having been off the desk yesterday afternoon, that the the market's a little bit indecisive about what to take from this current state of play. So I'll run you through the latest kind of update. Seemingly there's a partial agreement. The Chinese, as we were saying this time yesterday, have offered what they want. There's kind of Larry Kudlow, the economic advisor yesterday, kind of saying yes, this kind of multi-phase and rolling back of tariffs is being discussed, but then Peter Navarro kind of said something different, then some source comments came out. So very much classic trade war developments at the moment, which means that one of the things Sam said as a joke this morning, but I actually do think might become a reality. It's that Friday feeling and you get the kind of your spidey sense telling you that Trump really hasn't commented specifically himself at the moment on the situation, and obviously the power lies in the president's hands. And does he not want to give up some of that leverage on the tariff weapon or not? You almost feel like it's inevitable at some point today. He's going to say something quite meaningful on the subject. So at the moment, markets across the different asset classes usually can see relatively quiet. In terms of the S&P, we are well off the highs that we're seeing yesterday after some of the positivity. We'll look at that in a bit more detail at when the market kind of dipped at the actual Wall Street opens and fears just creeping in about the ability to get this partial one phase deal over the line, including the rollbacks as we discussed. But still up generally speaking from those initial headlines from yesterday morning, albeit much more shallow than where we were at the peak of yesterday's session. Currency markets things are particularly quiet. The dollar index is basically flat. So major pairs, euro, dollar and cable are basically unchanged on the session. We did see a little bit of movement in the Aussie overnight. So I'll update you they had their quarterly policy statement out last night, and it was quite dovish and so you did see a bit of a move low in Aussie. But perhaps counteracted by you had some fairly okay to decent Chinese export data in latest trade numbers, which might have counteracted any further follow-through on that move. Elsewhere, oil markets as well just drifting a little south. So quite interesting here if you're kind of mapping equities and oil prices fairly well correlated because some of the biggest driving themes here is the ongoing trade war. And a positive trade war is positive for demand for oil in terms of its initial pricing and implication going forward. And as people get a little bit more tentative about what they're hearing from the headlines, oil has just been backing off as well in a similar fashion to equities. And we're down about 60 cents at the moment. 56, 55 it trades in the futures. Okay, so let's transition my screens. Let's have a chat about the current state of play then and a couple of things perhaps to look out for today. So the US and China agreed to roll back tariffs on each other's goods in phases. Now the thing that's a little bit different, that's the same headline from yesterday, but both have come out and now confirmed this. So as they said, the economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, confirmed they're in advanced negotiations. He did say, quote, if there's a phase one trade deal, there are going to be tariff agreements and concessions. The thing that though that's happening is that there's a lack of commitment from the top and also details. So still quite a lot, I think, for this particular phase of dialogue to play out. A senior White House advisor also said on Thursday that Donald Trump is, quote, anxious to sign a deal. The negotiations are ongoing and the time and place for any signing for the pact is yet to be confirmed. So that still hasn't been nailed down as yet. The White House trade advisor, such as Peter Navarro, said on Fox Business last night that there is no agreement at this time to remove any of the existing tariffs as a condition of phase one of the deal. The only person that can make that decision is President Trump. It's as simple as that. And so, again, that rubber stamp hasn't come as yet and almost feels like I'm repeating what I was saying yesterday. I think there's a degree of caution in the air about, we always have this positivity. Looks like we're making progress. The market responds in quite a meaningful fashion and then it all kind of comes undone right at the last moment and really the balance of power will come from Trump at some point today, I think. You're going to see that. Now, a few other things to have a look at. This was what Reuters were reporting. This is kind of the headline from yesterday. And to give you the crux of the Reuters article, they are citing multiple sources familiar with the talks. So these are unidentified sources are saying an agreement between the U.S. and China to roll back existing tariffs as part of phase one trade deal faces fierce internal opposition in both the White House and from outside advisors. The divide within administration over whether rolling back tariffs could give away significant U.S. leverage going forward in the negotiation. So exactly as per our discussions the other day. Summary of this event is obviously we rallied quite aggressively when the Chinese made this initial first step yesterday. However, this was the move that we saw in the S&P 500 at the open of the U.S. stock market yesterday after the plan to ease tariffs faced a pushback inside the White House. This was that Reuters report that started to circulate. And so again, my main point here is I would be absolutely vigilant for Donald Trump to really make the decisive point here. And again, if he does agree and he says actually we're going to go ahead and he confirms a partial phasing out, which would mean step one, the stopping of the implementation of the mid-December tariffs would probably be the first phase. That in itself I think you'd get again an aggressive response in markets in a positive fashion. So oil up, stocks up, they probably lead to higher yields in the short term at least, and then gold coming under some further pressure. But I would say if I'm going to side on either way of which this could go, I just think I still think that that's not going to happen. And I think if anything, the chances will be that he'll want to prolong this out a little bit longer. And I don't think that that leverage is going to want to be given away so quickly. I do though think that in the medium to longer term that the phasing out deal is one that will happen. Because I feel that is Donald Trump's way of managing the stock market to be where it needs to be in 12 months time to win the second term. What I mean by that is by partially unwinding the tariffs in a phased by phased deal, you basically keep the foot on the gas, the pressure on China to deliver and follow through on its commitments as part of its pledges on their side of the trade deal. So it's kind of like the best of both worlds to try and manage the market and its perception about its impact on global growth, appeasing your domestic base and keeping the pressure on China to deliver. So I do think that this is going to go down that route. I just think that timing is of the essence and I just have my reservations about it coming through as soon as right now. The one thing though that has been quite evident is this is now looking at the weekly performance in percentage change for the gold market. I know a lot of the guys here on the floor have been trading gold. It's kind of been a bit of a blessing of fire for any of the junior traders because it's quite a volatile product to trade overall. But it has seen one of the most significant movements and the benefit of course of being a global macro trader is we look at multi-asset. So it's about identifying then across a variety of different products rather than just focusing in one specific kind of asset class in that respect. And gold has seen some decent moves. You can see here on the percentage changes, it's pretty much down 3% on the week. That would be the biggest weekly loss in more than two years for the yellow metal and this of course has come with what has been overall a little bit of positive progression on the singular biggest risk for global markets which is the trade war. The last time you can see here you've got to go all the way back to really Q2 of 2017. The last time we saw gold take such a big hit as it has done most recently. A few other things though that have happened perhaps just helping to put a bit of a flaw under any deepening or worsening of sentiment is the fact that some Chinese trade data came out last night. Chinese exports declined less than expected in October so a little bit of optimism coming in in what has been a significant decrease in their general trade data as some of these signs start to come with a potential interim deal with the US but imports did contract for the sixth straight month. Now from a graphic point of view to kind of visually represent where we're at obviously Q4 of 2018 was when we saw this massive dip in Chinese imports from the US that was right in the crux of the severity of the kind of equity market correction and also the escalation of the trade war. So we have bottomed out somewhat since that point. Chinese exports to the US you can see is still significantly lower but we have had a pickup here in the imports from the US and overall a bit of a leveling out in terms of exports and imports in dollar terms albeit still in negative percentage for all four of those readings. The other thing we had overnight I did briefly mention we had some commentary out of the RBA in Australia they released their quarterly policy statement bit of a summary here the first paragraph kind of wraps it up the central bank took a decidedly dovish turn on wage growth and inflation forecasting figures to stay lukewarm over the next two years citing them as a major reason it was prepared to further ease monetary policy again they stood pat on rates early this week following three rate cuts to take their rate down to 0.75 percent sounding ever very familiar to the Bank of England of course not only is the Australian interest rate the same as what it is here in the UK at 0.75 percent but the Bank of England of course with their quarterly inflation report or monetary policy report I should call it these days saying that inflation is going to remain below target effectively for the next two years so again weakening demand or inflation prospects given the slowdown in global economic growth and obviously for the UK with the inherent risks surrounding the political situation but the RBA similar opening the door for potential further easing market pricing is that they're not going to change rates for the rest of this year but I believe I read this morning if I remember recall 60 probability that they do cut rates in 2020 is what's priced in for the RBA at the moment okay let's get the calendar up what have we got on the session today for this morning it is relatively quiet the French trade data I don't think really carries much sway for European assets so focusing really into the US afternoon and from a data perspective no major really 130s coming out of the US we get Canadian jobs data so the loony always quite responsive to that if you're looking in the FX market otherwise from the US you got their preliminary November University of Michigan sentiment that's looking to remain roughly unchanged from the prior month if going off street expectations the Baker Hughes rig count for any oil traders later on speakers wise you do have Bostick and Williams they've already spoken overnight what did Bostick say is a non-voter but did say that would have probably dissented against the last rate cut if he had a vote in a monetary policy meetings because the US economy is solid and not in need of easing so quite interesting then to see this kind of Hawk dove divide but pretty much then in fitting or in keeping with the notion interpretation that the Fed meeting last week was that they're a kind of on hold for the moment and will be responsive to incoming data and developments in the economy and taking action as they see fit so a little bit more on the hawkish side didn't see anything out of Williams specifically but then you've got feds daily speaking later again non-voter though that'll be at 445 and feds brain are a voter but speaking into the weekend won't be until overnight main thing is though I'd say everything on this calendar is a second second place to the trade war headlines and all eyes on Donald Trump as I said and what does he say to see off this week because knowing what he's like if I think about his behavioral pattern Donald does love to shake it up right at the end of the week so what I'll do later on when I have his full daily agenda and specific timing as of where he's going to be and what is what he's doing today I'll share that into the chat room and I'll tweet it as well for my Twitter account all right that's it for me we should walk good session ahead and a great weekend and I'll speak to you later thanks very much yeah hope we're all doing well and we're bringing in a couple of longer term charts that I was looking at yesterday just to get things started considering we're on the last day of the week bringing in here silver and gold and we just yesterday touched down the the lows of October both on these markets and the fact we twice tested that low which I'll just circle up now from the first of October and fail to confirm a break below could be a decent little opportunity for some sort of retracement especially if Trump does decide to have a bit of a Friday frenzy and these lows could well be a good opportunity to have got in and I guess the main target area then or an opportunity to look to get short could for silver be that low the 16th you see just before what would be the pivot today so that reaction last night and then overnight today a couple of tests to try to get below that first of October low and it just couldn't obviously not out the woods yet our key level just above to to to get through which would be around that pivot point gold similar gold similar here but we did have a more of a breakthrough only to snap back came back and that false break was I mean really good opportunity you have to say to to get in there and see that's now a fair bit above and and having a look at a gold yesterday I mean what a move it has to be said in the in the afternoon just came all the way down and it's been on a bit of a journey this week as I was saying but yeah after breaking that low that 1482 which is just such a key point isn't it having a look back at this whole sort of last 30 or days and a break below there and really the next level it was going to go to whether it was going to do it as quick as that people I guess we're unsure but the next level it was going to go to that first of October low like with silver the failure to break down has seen a decent recovery how long that will last I think that will be will be well I guess potentially decided with with a trump tweet or not but S&P here still you've got to say nicely up I mean look at that 240 since the beginning of the of October there on the third it's just been one way traffic really with hardly any down days and and if there has been they've been very small probably worth looking to maybe not just yet but in in time see if we can get any of these kind of trend lines on or are we going to get maybe a new trend channel appearing you can see it's just starting to grind its way higher so maybe potentially a break of that to the downside could be an opportunity to come but at the moment it still seems there's there's life left in it but I think could well be something to to keep an eye on later on today obviously is where we close and and does trump come out and say anything also just having a look through here you can see relatively well respected this sort of break of the trend that we had yesterday morning we've come back to find some good support on there so from an intraday point of view 30 77 are pretty important level because it's also the highest from what they would that be Wednesday evening Wednesday afternoon and Tuesday evening so pretty key point good a line in the sand as you could want for now about 30 77 the pound yes they came under pressure after the 72 I think fit of an overreaction to be honest but if we have a look where I'd be happy to maybe be a buyer I think it has to get back above 12850 will we look back in there and see a similar you know move to potentially what could happen in gold and silver off these lows of the 24 failure to get back above there maybe but of course polls are really going to drive this but from an intraday perspective that 12850 pretty important level if we were to get above there there's still obviously a fair few points for it to go on and down up to get towards I do like the idea of a short R1 today however that would be a big big move for us to get there so a couple of resistance points I'd be keeping an eye on beforehand as well certainly having a look at the longer term picture here and it's going to put this on the 240 you can see the importance of that low from yesterday so again where we close the week will be pretty imperative if we can get below that 128 then why can't we drift down perhaps down to 127 in quick fashion has certainly been on a bit of a downward trend so again worth getting those trends on from the top look how well respected that is and it's almost like decision time to come for the pound whatever that can happen today or not I'm not too sure but from a technical point of view that's how I'd be looking to play this almost waiting medium term for that move to happen Euro nice little break yesterday this is again still the 240 you can see we broke through came back you know a couple of opportunities to have got in there whether you would have got stopped or not it's hard to say but a decent move lower putting it onto the 60 minute you can see it's just waving down now and as we put those pivots on just to give us the sense of direction we've just touched now what was yesterday early mornings lows and that's a you know found a bit of resistance there I don't you know see that getting broken through in the early morning trade just yet also got the pivot of course just a bit above there but relatively small range there a couple of short euros trades the last couple of days have taken a while to come in the R1 yesterday was a decent opportunity it seems but then it was hanging around there for a long period and it would have been offside for a while but yeah euro keeping around that low and and certainly similar with the pound if we can confirm a break below the I would say the low the 16th which we tried to yesterday if we get below there this week confirmed then obviously that next level down to one 10 37 could come quite quick as well the double top if you want to call it that seems quite some way away now from where we were trading just on the 31st just on Halloween last Thursday at 1 12 quick look over at oil was as I was saying just drifting lower and it just couldn't just could not get back above those those highs at 1 2 3 4 highs in a row but we just cannot confirm a break above and we're now back down trading 56 55 and again call it a little mini range if you like on on on oil where we close the week will be key if it's in there not too interested but if we can get below 56 I think we can drift back lower whereas if we were to have a decent day and get and close which we can't do at the moment above 58 then I think this market could go higher but for now seems to be the way that is just every push-up is met with the sellers coming back in until they give way I think a good opportunity would only come just as a medium term wise similar with that that pound idea just waiting for those breaks either way that's relatively quiet this morning on on that open and I think that's potentially the the theme for the morning some look at that calendar one more time you can see quiet quiet until you got Canadian numbers at 130 which is always a volatile release and one to keep an eye on three o'clock the the Michigan sentiment but small range and again probably wouldn't be expecting too much from that the only speaker of note is coming at 445 so probably a day to be patient and if the markets are going to move violently or in big momentum you're looking probably for Donald Trump to do something or there to be some sort of development in the election but that's not really going to happen for for some time so I wouldn't be looking to to go all crazy today I'm not convinced it's going to be a big move but I hope everyone has a good trading day even better weekend and fingers crossed for Leicester City that they beat Arsenal so we can get rid of you and I am I hope you'll have a great weekend and I'll catch you Monday