 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network. I am already excited about this week 16 slayed across the NFL with a massive matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers lurking on Monday night in that game could go a long way towards deciding who is MVP this year the top two MVP candidates right now Fandall sportsbook are in that game Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson I've actually got a bet that I like in that game which we'll talk about later on We're also going to break down the MVP market talking about whether there is value on the board of Purdy now being minus 200 We're gonna talk AFC and NFC South and get Ryan Williams read in the futures market over at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sanis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I am every Tuesday by Ryan Williams Checking out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore w and Ryan not only did you nearly see the board last night? I was your recommendations for Eagles versus Seahawks, but also your guide drew lock a Mizzou grad like you But also you mentioned before the show went to your high school. So like could Monday have gone any better for you personally? Oh I mean, it was it was great to see the kid could see the kids succeed. I mean great post game interview With Lisa Salters there at the end and you know, just Awesome to see you know when a guy like a backup comes in and you know Had the game against San Fran a week before kind of struggled and struggled and Denver gets traded and didn't have a game like That where the team's just rallying around you Gino Smith's rallying around you the starter and That's got to be good for his confidence great for his confidence and especially as they look to you know Shape up the playoff picture for themselves to get into the wild card You know knowing that that exists in the realm of possibilities To have a backup quarterback who can come in and be ready to play is got to feel great for him So I'm sure he celebrated mightily last night And hopefully he's ready to get back after it this week Pete Carroll definitely did he had a backwards hat on during the press conference It's like always a thing when Pete Carroll wears a hat. So not only did he go had he went backwards half for the press conference So the Seahawks people were going nuts at that and like I'm thinking about the this NFC playoff race Ryan is like a viewer and I thought going into the year that the NFC wild card situation would be kind of like meh Whatever, but when I think about the teams that I want to watch like in the ASC like I want to watch the bills I want them to make because I want to build the playoffs for the NFC like I like watching the Rams I like watching the Seahawks. I think the Packers are pretty fun. So like there aren't a lot of bad outcomes I don't think in the NFC and honestly like that kind of surprises me. So I Think the NFC is fun I know that like the take has been a long time that they're good But I want to add on that they're actually kind of fun. So this playoff race Ryan down the stretch has been Kind of fun to track honestly Yeah, it's it's definitely been, you know fun for fun for the viewers fun for the fans To know that you know, you're pretty much there's only like four teams who have been out of the playoff picture For a majority of the year, but some of the you know, some of these teams who have still been in it It's been great to see. I mean, I guess in the AMC we kind of have the usual suspects I'm pretty much till like eight nine, but yeah and NFC. I mean my goodness Chicago and the Giants We're still in it, you know as of last week before the losses. So it's just it's just wild It's wild It's it's been more fun than I thought it would be given all the quarterback injuries It could have been pretty gross, but I think things are setting up pretty well Down the stretch. We're gonna talk about this playoff race is specifically honing in on the AFC NSC South Divisions right now over at Fandall Sport book three-way tie in the ASC south We'll talk to Ryan aside if there's value there for him right now But also talking NSC south doesn't read or officially benched this morning for the Atlanta Falcons So we'll break down that if that impacts the NSC south at all and take a look at that MVP race as well Before I dive into what my numbers say about week 16 But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast for shows for this week Because of the Christmas holiday. So no show coming up on Friday, but we'll still have NBA NHL thoughts tomorrow and then we'll have our full NFL week 16 preview with Dr. Ed Feng coming up on Thursday So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast If you like what you hear be sure to give us a five-star rating on Apple podcasts or Spotify You can also find this podcast in video form over on the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus Let's take a look at that MVP market Ryan We're right now Brock Purdy is the favorite at Fandall Sportsbook down to minus 200 to win MVP for this year And obviously, you know, you could bet Purdy at that number but also with Purdy being that short Odds have length and elsewhere. So any value for you elsewhere or is Purdy well positioned enough Ryan Where you're staying away from the market as it currently stands It's just so so crazy to see Purdy up there I remember, you know, when San Francisco's railing kind of heading into the buy I believe we talked about him and his odds were like plus 1600 1800 something in that realm and kind of said like hey if the passing touchdowns end up, you know Going to people other than McCaffrey Purdy could see himself in that scenario and now here the scenario presents itself We're pretty at the top. Mr. Irrelevant. It's just absolutely incredible. I do think there is value though in Lamar Jackson We talked a couple weeks ago I still thought Josh Allen was a little bit out of the race, but I mean my goodness, you know the two victories that they've had recently you know over top echelon teams in the Chiefs and the Cowboys and then, you know, you're thinking about they get another matchup with Miami I guess Josh Allen's back in the mix But Lamar is really the one and they have a direct matchup that's coming up, right? So like if Lamar goes out there and outperforms for our Purdy That could be some merit to get to make him the favorite And then you know, Baltimore's kind of got you know a little bit of a course to get Lamar that that MVP trophy yet again It just it does feel like, you know, the 49ers are gonna end up with with something I've you know with the way that it's been going. I don't think Christian maybe Christian McCaffrey closes the gap So plus 125 for often to play of the year Tyree kill had been there at the top for for some time and now with that injury You know, it still feels like Tyreek has a lot left in the tank to be able to close that off But I just don't see the 49ers getting sweep that all these swept out of all these awards So makes it makes it tough But I do think that direct matchup is enough to take Lamar Jackson at five to one seeing as how he's been You know pretty much in the at the top of the favorites at least in the top four For the past like seven eight weeks or so in this market So we'll see what Lamar Jackson has left. I do think it's interesting too. And you know Keaton Mitchell, I mean my goodness What a what a dynamic player and that's gonna be a tough loss for the Ravens who once again find themselves in Injury purgatory for another year But that's this could definitely mean more rushing upside for Lamar to be able to close that gap where you know He's pretty much I think he's sitting around 3,100 passing yards and things like that It's it's the way that they play the game in the way how dynamic he is in moving the ball for them So statistically if he can add on, you know, maybe a couple close to a hundred yard rushing games to end up the season And Ravens went out. I think that he's looking at taking home hardware So I agree with you in that the 49ers cannot be held out of these markets because of how good they are I actually show value on them to win that game on Monday against the Ravens we'll talk about that in the look ahead stuff, but That could that could be Purdy, but also Purdy and his press conference on Sunday said I think it should be Christian McCaffrey George Kittle on Monday said I think it should be Christian McCaffrey Does that give you any interest in McCaffrey at 16 to 1 to win MVP not offensive player of the year because He's gonna have a showdown, you know a showcase event on Monday, too what if McCaffrey has a vintage McCaffrey game in that one Could that potentially tilt the scales his direction because I think a lot of people are looking for reasons not to vote for Purdy Which I think is misguided because I think he's played really really well this year and yeah, it's a good System, but he's commanding the system like the best we've seen so Are you tempted all about McCaffrey at 16 to 1 because honestly Ryan I am and I'm at the point where I kind of need to be talked out of taking McCaffrey 16 to 1 Yeah, I mean it there is some interesting merit to it It's just such a heavily favorite quarterback award, you know, especially if we see Tyree kill Pop off as of late. So then you're looking at like an an offensive a Quarterback not getting either one of the offensive awards for the year I don't know the last time that that's happened off the top of my head But that seems like really out of out of whack maybe when Adrian Peterson won For for running back at the MVP Status but you know Christian McCaffrey, I mean this guy's just absolutely incredible, you know It's it's hilarious to think about You know the decision when people had their read drafts on who to take Justin Jefferson or Christian McCaffrey That looks very tough and you know just the fact that Christian McCaffrey has been able to make it through the year You know unscathed I have to knock on wood now because there are three games left in the season But you know everybody's talked about his durability and his health and just just so happy for him to be able to go out there And and really it just is unfair what the 49ers were able to get from Carolina from them I mean Carolina fans have to be kicking themselves with the way trades have gone over the past couple years But uh, but yeah, 16 to 1 I guess, you know if he the thing that Christian would need to do and Raheem Most of it is so far ahead from him in the rushing Touchdown market, you know, I think he's six behind 19 to 13 is the comparison if he can get the receiving touchdowns You know parties, you know still making moves, but they're all going to Christian McCaffrey You know kind of similar to this last week that we saw I think he could maybe you know close the gap there If Lamar kind of Peters off doesn't do too much Josh Allen. He Peters off And that isn't able to make it to the playoffs I think that press got with you know the way that they kind of played against Buffalo, you know I kind of write him off. I had written off Josh Allen for a little bit So there there is some interesting merit, but I do think at the end of the day Jim if he goes out and balls out It just so much so solidifies often some player of the year for him versus MVP Yeah, I think that like it is definitely out there obstacles to McCaffrey winning it like it would probably like if Buffalo keeps doing what they're doing and they they're 10 and a half point favorites this week It could be Josh Allen above McCaffrey and then they just give the calf we often supplier the year But like the narrative of the 49ers pushing McCaffrey is it's called my attention is what I would say I also think that Kyle Shanahan should be shorter than eight to one to win Coach of the year. That's kind of absurd to me. Honestly, like he should be shorter than that he deserves it if we're gonna credit the scheme to like Downplay Brock Purdy Maybe give Kyle Shanahan coach of the year to like account for that But that's just my own personal thoughts on that one with Shanahan Let's talk here about the two south divisions and their races now and where the odds stand at the for the NFC south or the AFC south I should say the Jacksonville Jaguars are minus 112 because this is now a three-way tie for first place in the south and now Trevor Lawrence incursion protocol and You know up in the air as to whether he will play For this week Coulter plus 280 and the Texans plus 290 Ryan Anything stand out to you as far as value when it comes to betting the AFC south right now Yeah, well, it's interesting because we'll talk about the NFC south and Pretty much have been beating the drums for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the past three to four weeks on this show And that's who Jacksonville is playing this week, you know in Tampa So, you know, I'm of the mindset that Jacksonville is gonna come into this game lose again And then I think that kind of squarely, you know, opens things up for the for the Colts and the Texans I do think the way that, you know, case Kenan has come into the fold for CJ Stroud there and just, you know Being a proven commodity quarterback as a backup With a couple playoff victories under his belt. I think, you know, the Houston Texans outlook does feel pretty strong I just I you know, we've talked about them this year Jim. It's just so hard, you know That's a root for this team. He was at the really bottom totem pole Of last year and then has a chance to make make the playoffs. So definitely pulling for them You know, Indy with Garner-Minshew, you know, I think there there is still some Interesting plays, you know for them. I do want to, you know, kind of see what the health of the offense is looking like though I know they had some rough injuries this past week with Michael Pittman leaving the game I believe Zach Moss Left the game as well too And those are two key pieces on offense that I don't think they can afford to, you know Miss down the stretch here with three games left. So I'm gonna take Houston at plus 290 And just ride that out and see what kind of magic we can get and if CJ could come back for the final two games To the season if not this week. I think he can this week. I know they said he's still in concussion protocol That's a technicality. He can't clear without practicing and they haven't practiced in Saturday So like he's still in there because he hasn't practiced. So like I think he'll go this week I'm not sure on Nico Collins. He was questionable on Sunday Without practicing. So maybe he goes but that one's more up in the air But when I look at my numbers for this week, I show a bit of value in the Texans minus two and a half against the Browns I show value kind of like you alluded to in the in the box against the Jaguars So like that kind of implies that I think that both the Texans are undervalued and the Jags are overvalued for this week specifically and obviously with just three weeks left that correlates heavily to this market, so I Think I agree plus 290 for the tech Texans is kind of fun They get to face the Colts on in week 18 that game could be amazing I really hope both those teams are still involved that could be a fight for the The AFC South crown depending on how things go for these for the Jags the next couple of weeks. So I'm pumped about this division. I agree with you that the Texans might be undervalued. I've been on them This entire year except for this past week. I did bet against them did that did not go well I deserve that for betting against my guys. So You get what you deserve in me betting against the Texans, but not gonna do that this week I do think that the Texans plus 290 is pretty intriguing and it's the South Ryan You talked about the Bucks when they were like plus 480. I think Maybe even a bit longer than that to win the NSC South and now they're down to minus 134 Saints are plus 188 Falcons plus for 640 as they now shift to Taylor Heineke as their starter but like huge match of coming up in week 17 between the Bucks and the Saints Bucks taking on the Jags this week the Saints get the Rams when you look at this market Ryan What's your read on this division right now? Yeah, well, let's Are listed there with Taylor Heineke, you know back in the mix doesn't read I mean they are just we'll have to get into them at some point Jim We haven't talked about the Falcons really all year, but what a debacle it has been for Arthur Smith Since being there so I can just write them off It does come down to New Orleans and Tampa Bay and I just look at the outlook that Tampa Bay has and you know the way that they're Traveler right now. I mean Baker Mayfield putting up the highest passer rating in Lambo ever I believe is what the statistic was going around like no other quarterback has had about your pass rating That's just incredible And so, you know now facing in Jacksonville Jaguar team that could be without their starter and Trevor Lawrence and you know We know that's gonna be tough for Jacksonville to put the tough pill for them to swallow because they tried to do Everything to get Trevor Lawrence into a game earlier this year when it looked like a foregone conclusion He was gonna miss so you know, they don't want the backup playing I think that Tampa Bay sets themselves up for success. The Saints against the Rams this week will be a fun one I think they'll be an interesting one a lot of points being scored in that game We'll see if Derek Carr can keep up But yeah, Tampa Bay kind of controls on destiny because after that They do get that match up with New Orleans like you're saying and they close out against Carolina So, I mean you got to be able to handle business On on your schedule here and really take advantage love that the you know love that they're hosting that home game against Jacksonville and I think yeah, it's their division to lose and you you know It's it hasn't been talked about but you know Baker Being able to take this Tampa Bay Buck and Nair's team, you know back to the playoffs after you know being a year removed From from losing Tom Brady that the goat and what was gonna be happening there And not even knowing that he was gonna be you know the week one starter until you know, whatever it was You know the last preseason game So, you know very very excited for the redemption come back on on Baker as well Yeah, it's been fun to watch and like he's playing great It wasn't just that that Packers game. He didn't play well against Atlanta He actually kind of struggled in that game outside of that final drive But like overall it's been a very good year for Baker Mayfield, which is fun to watch given You know the public dumping in Cleveland and all that stuff They get the Jags this week the Saints and then the Panthers as you mentioned Saints get the Rams and then go to Go to Tampa Bay to take on the Buckeers that game is in Tampa I think that does matter a lot for this market as well It's a big part of why the Bucs are minus 134 right now That's another game week 17. That would be an absolute delight to discuss any other futures You are eyeing Ryan as we get set for week number 16 Well looking in the defensive player of the year market. I do think there is merit for TJ Watt at plus 400, you know I'm thinking about I mean record For Cleveland, I do think that will be an interesting one if they're able to make the playoffs You know, Michael Parsons being the favorite there He's had so many great games this season But as of late, he's kind of been out of the mix, you know So to speak and I think that does kind of factor in TJ Watt has been the absolute catalyst for Pittsburgh For all this time and I think it gets overshadowed with how much the offense has struggled but I mean, this is a guy who you know is it's Upper echelon when it comes to attacking the quarterback And so if he can you know get his stack numbers up and you know reach it reach a nice plateau there I do think that that's merit for him there But it does seem like a three-headed race when we're talking about the make playoffs market You know, I just kind of alluded to, you know Green Bay giving up a big game But I think they are you know Green Bay being three-to-one to make the playoffs Playoff Playoff picture is shaping up It just seems like with them having the longest yards here or longest odds in this market It seems like a little bit unreason To take a shot on them with way they close out their season as well too as they want to play You know against many playoff teams for these next three games So I think that that's an interesting one as well And then yeah, we keep an eye on the on the Super Bowl market each time and I do find it very interesting that that you know The Buffalo Bills are rear in their head once again But you know, you got to scroll down Jim you got to scroll down for their odds that at 14 to 1 here and There is merit for them to end up winning this division which seemed like an absolute Anomaly a couple weeks back, and I think that had to head match up with Miami You know to close out is really going to be you know an interesting one if the Bills can handle business here Especially if that you know the dolphins are dealing with injuries across the board on offense, so I I think at Ford's Think the home playoff game to start in a wild card that you know It's likely against Cleveland or whoever gets into that match up there And and I just really you know think that people don't want to have to travel Buffalo in January To have to play and we know that they can keep up, you know with the with the top tier of teams in the AFC So, you know, I think a match to get to the Super Bowl It is still well within favor and we've talked about the market Like I didn't think Josh Allen could do enough to get back into the MVP race But here he is once again, but you know, I think the best market still to get Buffalo futures on is for them And that's Super Bowl market you mentioned the division They would need the dolphins to lose a game before their matchup in week 18 But the dolphins face the Cowboys in the Ravens before then like that's insane like from a scheduling perspective Whereas the Bills get the Chargers and then the Patriots before that game like they may not play the second half of either of those games So I'm a look just gonna check plus 220 to win the AFC East. I don't think that's crazy So I agree with you Ryan. I I think that's at least intriguing I like that call out and I think the Bills might do it. It's pretty interesting That is Ryan Williams make sure you check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan a pleasure to have you on the Show for today. Happy holidays. We'll talk to you once again next Tuesday to talk futures once again. Yeah Covering the spread we appreciate that and Jim. I'll catch you next time my man Absolutely. Thank you, Ryan as always that is Ryan Williams find him on Twitter at Ryan Alexander Underscore W we're gonna dive into week 16. We'll talk about that Ravens versus 49ers game within that to get you ready for that one and also let you know other spots for my model shows Value for this week. 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Fandal calm gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fendal calm slash RG in Colorado Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia call 1 800 next step or text next step to 53342 in Arizona 180 8 789 7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut 1 809 with an Indiana 1 805 2 2 4700 visit KS gambling health comm in Kansas 1 877 770 stop in Louisiana visit MD. Gammie health Oregon, Maryland 1 800 gambler.net in, West Virginia 1 805 2 2 4700 in Wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call a hundred three two seven fifty fifty for 247 supporter, Massachusetts or call 1 8 770 open Y or text open Y in New York Let's dig in now to week 16 and outline where my models show value over at fandal sportsbook for this week Let's begin things with that very fun matchup on Monday night between the Ravens and the 49ers right now Fandal sportsbook the Niners are favorite by five and a half minus 1 15 there And I actually do like the 49ers in this game And it makes you optimistic to lay five and a half against Lamar Jackson and arguably the best team in the AFC right now But I think the 49ers might just be that good my secondary model does have these as the top two teens and football And it makes his bread Directly on five and a half So that one says the market here is very correct But my primary model the one that performs better the one that's had a better ROI Has the 49ers by more than a touchdown in this spot That model is a little bit lower on Baltimore because it weighs passing efficiency more heavily and the 49ers Lapping the field in that category in the Ravens above average, but you know not outlandishly above average in that department So it makes sense. They'd be a bit lower in that one But it also does perform better when you back test it and bet using it There also is a chance that the Ravens could play this game without left tackle Rodney Stanley He left Sunday night's game with a concussion and It'd be a pretty tough top proposition to not have Stanley out there when you're taking on this defensive line They're also missing Mark Andrews and Keaton Mitchell as Ryan mentioned So I know it feels weird to lay five and a half against a team as good as the Ravens are but I think the 49ers are kind of a supernova right now and It's it's important for me to be in on them until the market fully adjust to how good they are So I like the Ravens. I had a Raven Super Bowl ticket already for this year I think they're potentially the best team in the AFC, but I Think the Niners are just that good So I'll lay them to five and a half with the Niners in this matchup Minus 1 15 a Fandals sportsbook to take the 49ers in this game against the Ravens on Monday night I also would say I show a value in the over in this game that is correlated with the spread so Could potentially check out a same game parlay here minus five and a half and over 45 and a half at Fandals sportsbook To bet both those two together It's not parlaying them right now, but you could potentially do that because those two bets are correlated as well with the Niners the spread there and the over as well Other money liners spread while I'm showing value for this week is one we alluded to with Ryan That is a Tampa Bay Buccaneers Taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars and right now pretty even market here The Bucks are minus one away to win this game as are the Jaguars And I do show value in the Buccaneers to win this one We have seen players clearing concussion protocol more quickly this year than they were earlier on this year But I still think there's a decent shot the Trevor Lawrence can't go in this game Which case I think this number would move a pretty decent amount in Tampa Bay's favor I don't think this would be a dead ticket even if Lawrence were to play so it's kind of you know weighing the odds that Lawrence is clear and weighing what the Spread would be in that scenario versus what it would be if he sits and kind of taking those probabilities To get yourself a conglomerate number here But I think that once I do those calculations, you know do that mental math I think that this is a good spot to buy in the box with the information we have right now in large part because it's jegs defense Really struggling right now. They're getting shredded through the air recently They have underperformed expectations on early downs against the past relative to their matchup in six of their past seven games five of That's five of those were by significant margins as well And so that's the defense defense is kind of banged up not playing all that well right now But the offense even if Lawrence can play will not have Christian Kirk They will not have Cam Robinson and Zay Jones labeled as week to week Curtis hamstring late against the Ravens So it would be Calvin Ridley Parker Washington and Jamal Agnew in three receiver sets for the Jags That's not really what you want even if Lawrence is able to go So the primary motivation for me being on the Bucks is the uncertainty around Lawrence And I think there's enough there where I could lay the there bet the Bucks money line at minus 108 But the rest of the team's health for the Jags also allows me to take it even with the possibility Lawrence is still able to go so I'll take the Bucks here minus 108 I think that's a good spot to get them at and I do feel good about the Bucks in this matchup as I take on the Jaguar So to spreads or or money lines Ravens or the 49ers minus five and a half And then the Bucks money line at minus 108 as well Couple of totals where I'm showing value for this week The first one is honestly a head scratcher to me that is the commanders taking on the jets So right now the total is 37 and a half under is minus 105 and Unless Aaron Rodgers plans to play in this game I cannot see a reason why this total is as high as it is right now If Zach Wilson cannot go in this one Trevor Simeon would get the start and the Jets offense has been an abject disaster Without Wilson this year means Brett Rippon. I guess I did say it'd be Simeon. So Not a great situation for this Jets offense regardless Robert solid didn't rule out Aaron Rodgers But Rodgers had previously said he would play only if the Jets were still alive for the playoffs Maybe those plans have changed and it's possible that Rodgers does play But it seems like one of the less likely scenarios for this game Even with the commander's defense being historically awful like hideous Like I felt really good laying the six and a half the Rams last week against them because of this defense. I Still got this total at 33 and a half and it's again 30 37 and a half right now Fandall sportsbook under minus 105 So a big gap between my model and the market and that gap matters more the lower the total is That's even with wind speeds in East Rutherford right now At four miles per hour meaning that total could decrease even more if the wind were to go up the Jets defense playing very well right now playing well enough to keep the commanders in check and I Don't know how the Jets light up the scoreboard with their current offensive personnel Unless Rodgers pulls a fast one on us. I think this number should be lower So I'll take the Jets and commanders under 37 and a half Minus 105 a Fandall sportsbook again unless Rodgers plays which I don't expect I think that this is a good value to take the under in this game Final total I like for this week is going right back to the Colts I've been on a lot of unders for the Colts this year, which is obviously not going very well because They play chaotic gates. They tend to play towards the over a lot. They're 10 and four towards the over so far this year But like I think a lot of that has been variance And I don't care as much about that when they're facing a team like the Falcons Now the pace in this game is fast overall both for the Colts and the Falcons So I understand why it is where it is But it's also two non-elite offenses both teams starting back of quarterbacks with Heinecke Now starting for the Falcons guard your Minshew for the Colts So it's tough for me to get to a number A key number above a key not I get to a total above a key number in 44 The Falcons have been bad this year offensively But they get even worse once you adjust for the soft schedule they faced They're 21st in early down passing efficiency straight up But they fall to 26th once you account for the opponents they have faced Their rush defense has been fantastic this year. So That would push the Colts to pass the ball and passing the ball is good for overs because it's more efficient and because it stops the clock But the Colts may be less efficient than usual in terms of passing If Michael Pittman can't go following that really scary hit in the game on saturday Given that the Colts defense has been I think better than perception so far this year I am fine taking the under Despite a very fast pace in this one. Again, it's a fast pace the Colts have played towards the over this year So I understand why it's a 44 and a half, but that just seems like a pretty big number for Two not great offenses and two not terrible defenses. So I'm okay Going towards the under here Colts and Falcons under 44 and a half, which is minus 115 right now if annual sports So the recap spots where I'm showing value as of right now Colts Falcons under 44 and a half at minus one minus 115 I've got the Jetson commanders under 37 and a half minus 105 The Bucks money line at minus 108 and the 49ers minus five and a half as they take on the ravens that one is minus 115 as well Before we close up for today got to go back through Recommendations from last week here on the show across our various guests Let's begin things by talking about Dr. Red Fang is with us on thursday to preview And if that week 15 you can find Ed on twitter at the power rank and check out his work at the power rank Dot com one and one week for Ed the win Was on the lions minus four and a half taking on the Broncos talked a lot about Turnover luck breaking in favor of the the Broncos and they didn't get turnovers in that game Jared got shredded them and he not the lions coasted to a cover and that one So a good win there for Ed He had the Jags plus three and a half against the ravens and like you kind of can't account for trevor lorence fumbling by himself in the red zone apparently Suffering a concussion at some point during that game as well So one and one week for Ed tough luck on the Jags given that there was the Ridley touchdown as well potentially could have covered in that game, but Didn't quite get the job done so one and one week for Ed We had JJ Zacharyson back with us on friday to talk about some player props find JJ on twitter at late round qb Find his work at late round dot com and the late round of fantasy football podcast JJ had another Longer touchdown bet for this week that one is clad edwards e-lair at plus 290 edwards e-lair Had a good role on sunday once again got the touchdown against the patriots over did hit in that game as well ch plus 290 a win For JJ yardage bets went one and one he had josh downs over 42 and a half receiving yards at minus 114 Did get pitman pitman did get banged up in that game and left early But downs still just three catches for 19 yards so couldn't quite get there As the Colts didn't wait to throw very much trace sermon a lot of work in the second half for them Did have Khalil Shakir under 27 and a half receiving yards Minus 114 and Shakir at zero because the bill threw the ball like five times in that game Josh Allen under 100 yards passing so easy under with Shakir at 27 and a half for JJ Other touchdown bets beyond ceh were josh downs plus 260 tj hawkinson plus 210 jordan adison monopolized the touchdowns for the vikings So a good hit for JJ with the ceh a plus 290 and also hit on the clear Shakir one So hopefully a profit for you depending on how you scale things in following JJ stuff We had austin cas with us on friday talked about the epl You can find austin on twitter at austin cas find his work over at fandal research where he is a senior editor Two and one week for austin once again He had liverpool minus 125 to win the first half and the matches they were taking on manchester united But man united kept that thing close the entire game. Uh, they Had a draw in the first half and for the full game. Uh, nil nil the final in that one So good job by them to bounce back. Uh, but no win for liverpool minus 125 to win the first half in the match Other two were winners though for austin new castle coming through once again austin liked the new castle moneyline minus 120 and they won three nil new castle He's had a perfect read on them so far this year whether four or against them So another win in the column there from new castle at minus 120 and finally austin's one player prop was col palmer to score or assist at minus 120 And palmer had a goal in the 54th minute for chelsea as they won that one I believe two nil but either way a win with the col palmer score or assist market So good job by austin two and one week for him You can find austin on twitter at austin cas we'll get austin back with us after the new year EPL is off the final or the first week of the new year So second week we'll get austin back on to talk more epl Alluded to this before but ryan had a fantastic night last night on monday night football Find ryan on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w Traditional markets only one he liked was the under at 45 that did go up once it was announced that jillan hertz would be good to go Close at 46 and a half i think but regardless easy under there 37 total points In that game so a no sweat winner there for ryan williams He had to yandre swift over 58 and a half rushing yards swift had 74 good usage for swift I know kenneth gainwell got a lot early in that game But not a lot late and so swift goes over 50 58 and a half So a win for ryan there he had dallas goddard over four and a half receptions at plus 118 goddard had four So a loss there but a tight one One of only two losses for ryan other loss was no offense over 21 and a half receiving yards I think he finished with 18 Or so there but regardless a loss the other wins for ryan He had dk meccap over 63 and a half receiving yards at minus 113 dk got there on the final drive He also had meccaf over 23 and a half as his longest reception meccaf did get that 34 yards on his longest reception in that one that was minus 113 Another winner on the final drive was jackson smith and jigba Over 43 and a half receiving yards really sick catch by jsn On that touchdown finished with 48 yards for a win for ryan there at minus 113 Final one was jason meyers over six and a half kicking points at minus 102 meyers was there before the final drive So didn't need that final drive to get there. I think he had eight total points He had seven for the extra point there That was minus 102 for ryan. So one two three four five six and two night for ryan williams again Fantastic night for him and again drew lock getting wins for his high school and his college as well I was three and one on the week. I did get a win last night in that seahawks eagles game I had the under at 48 at minus 110 back on tuesday talked about that before the uncertainty with hurts So I didn't play a factor in that one just thought it was going to be a lower scoring game My model had that one at 44 and a half and it did finish with 37 total points So a win there one loss for me was not a good one. It was the cowboy's money line plus 116 Whoops, not a great call there The good thing though is it doesn't matter how bad you lose just a matter of whether you win or lose and I lost that one And it would have been a loss whether they had lost by water if they had lost by 21 So hey, you know, it is what it is other winners from me I had the colts minus two and a half on saturday against the stealers that did shift to one and a half Once tj walk clear concussion protocol kind of thought he might set out that game But he did not but it didn't matter the colts Cruised in that second half to win that game pretty easily and then I had the rams minus six and a half against the commanders Got a little nervous as jacoby brissette scored a couple of late touchdowns there ron reverie could have gone for two And if he had gone for two and made it that would have been a six-point game and I would have lost But instead reverie decided to kick despite the fact his placeholder was hurt Um So kick the fuel goal the extra point they missed it. So it was um, it wound up being an a point game there I also didn't talk about this in the show, but I had under 49 and a half So for vera had gone for two not only would it have ruined my rams minus six and minus six and a half and minus 110 I also would have lost my under at 49 and a half So shout out ron reverie coach of the year in my book for deciding to kick and miss it I appreciate you as always And thank you for your service That is all that we have here forward to day on covering the spread one final Thank you to ryan williams our guests from earlier on check him out on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w Is ron as mentioned ryan back with us next tuesday no show monday because that is christmas Uh, so back with us on tuesday talks and futures and get ready for nfl week 17 Uh schedule for this week four shows We do have um prime time tom coming up for you on thursday Or a wednesday to get you ready for the thursday night game pretty fun between the rams and saints That'll be on the covering the spread podcast feed of vandal tv plus and then no show for us on friday due to the holidays So, uh, we'll be with you monday through thursday Talking nfl and more right here on the feed to get all those shows as they are posted Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And of course you can find us on vandal tv plus and the vandal youtube page as well If you've got any questions for me. I am on twitter at jim sonnis You can also find me on threads at jim dot sonnis You can follow fan dual research on twitter at fan dual research We want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across tuesday We'll talk to you once again tomorrow right here on covering the spread This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast now