 The market doesn't have to go up. And that's, I think, the most important part that we all have to understand. Again, when we want a six year, seven years, we need it. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys, happy Monday, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader.com Nightly Wrap-Up Show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a pretty good day of trading, a lot of ugly numbers. But again, it all depends on how you trade, what you trade, what your parameters are, what your processes, what your timeframe is, all that good stuff that makes this business unlike any other business. And again, as we talk about all the time, the greatest reality show that's not on television. So let's back up, right? We know the numbers today. The Dow down 2.8%, the S&P down nearly 4%, the Nasdaq down 5%, right? That's kind of where it was. There's nothing you can do about it now, right? But this started again, this started two days ago, right? This started two days ago when the candle from Wednesday night engulfed two weeks' worth of consolidation and we lost the 20 day moving average, which was very, very tough to get considering this was the first time that it closed above it in this whole formation that's still way underneath supply. So that was very, very important. Friday came out the CPI, a lot of people blamed Friday's sell off. And again, very, very exaggerated sell off. Again, he saw 800 point move now back to back days in the Dow, but Friday they came out and they blamed Friday's sell off on the CPI. Again, the CPI was not the blame for Friday's sell off. The blame for Friday's sell off was a continuation from the first close below the 20 day moving average. And today obviously was a fuel more like a snowball effect coming from all those levels and reminding everybody once again, where we are in the overall spectrum. And again, that's underneath the 50 day moving average. And you keep on seeing new traders over and over and asking you to keep on reiterating the same thing. Well, how can the market continue to go lower? Well, it's very easy. Go back to 2001 through 2001 through 2002, go back to 07 through 09, the market doesn't have to go up. And that's I think the most important part that we all have to understand. Again, when we went a six years, seven years linear, linear up and you had two, three days worth of sell off, the running inside joke was, well, by the effing dip, by the effing dip, you know, bears never learn until the bears finally reclaim macro levels and everything that the bears completely discard including a global pandemic going back to 2020, once they start falling below all those prices, things got real because a lot of people have never experienced, because think about this, if you've only started trading within the last, you know, six years, right? Anytime between a week or six years, you've never seen anything more than a two, three week period of selling. And today, you know, we're marking, we're getting up to what, six months, right? You know, my birthday's in June. So you're talking about from January, you're talking about six months worth of selling, but that really doesn't compare and that's not even a fly on an elephant's butt when it comes down to multiple bear markets that I've traded in 2001 and traded from 2007 to 2009. So this is still warming up. And the most important part is, and again, like I've been saying this for a very long time, you can't take it year by year, week to week. You gotta take everything now on a day-to-day basis. And since we trade channels, again, for us, it really doesn't make a difference which way the market goes, because again, we're trading the channels. The stocks clean up sellers, right? Clean up sellers, the market goes higher. Stocks clean up buyers, while the market goes lower. And we've been under this sell-off for, you know, six months now and the most important part is we all acknowledge that things can change on a dime. And when you look at the price action today, you know, very aggressive. A lot of names broke down macro with some pretty aggressive option flow. Again, what's done is done. And now the question is what happens tomorrow? We'll get to the pivots in a second. So pretty good, you know, pretty good solid pivots today as well. But I think the key is always remember this. And this is kind of the theme going into tomorrow's session. Always remember this. I don't care how strong a market is, right? It never goes up. You'll have some very violent down days, but the overall direction is still up. In a bear market, right? You'll have a lot of down days, consecutive down days, and you'll have one snapback rally because again, things don't go straight down. Tomorrow, we could have a situation that there's a chance we can possibly take advantage of both sides. So let me explain here. So this was the lowest close in this whole formation, right? This is the lowest close in the six months that we've been selling off, right? We took down this 280 level. If we were talking, you know, on the video over the weekend that came out, well over the weekend, we said, you know, I said that there's a shot we retest the lower Bollinger band. Yeah, that 283 level. Forget about the 283 level. We went down to 274. Completely, I'm talking about completely shattered it. But now we're starting to get a little bit extended to the downside. Does not mean we're not going lower. It just doesn't have, there's a shot, right? There's an absolute puncher shot that we might have a scenario tomorrow that, hey, we might get a little bit of relief. Now a lot of people would turn around and say, well, we need, you know, we need a good capitulation, you know, down five, 600 points sell off tomorrow. Like I've been using this analogy, throw the baby out with the bathwater, let all the retailers said, you know, that basically said, like I'm going to give it one more day, just turn around and be like, I just don't want to own stock anymore, get me out of it. And if we can get like a really aggressive down open tomorrow, I could see a scenario that us reclaiming back the Bollinger band, right? Reclaiming back the Bollinger band and having a dead cat balance of 500 to 1,000 points just because if you look at, you know, if you just look at the cues, first of all, the Dow has given back 1,600 points in the last two sessions. So there's no reason to think just from common sense point of view, if we do get this big gap down tomorrow and we start reclaiming back supply, right? There's no reason why the Dow can't rally back 500 to 1,000 points considering we already gave back, you know, 1,600, 1,700 points just the last two sessions. But here's the problem, right? Here's the absolute problem. The last thing, and again, we want to make sure that traders are thinking, okay, it's not as simple as sell this by that. There's a lot of thought that goes into it because again, you want to use common sense, but you want to complement it by technical analysis. Obviously, we're sell bias macro, right? It's a very, very big deal ever since we lost gave back the 20 day moving average. But we also, again, like I said a minute ago, we also understand things just don't go straight down. So here's a scenario that I'm kind of thinking going into tomorrow, okay? If we gap up, okay? If we gap up, the last thing the bulls want to do is see that, right? They don't want to see a gap up. It's very, very rare that you turn around and see a gap up take place in a bearish scenario that's going to result in a gap and go. It's, you don't want to see that because what's going to happen is if you have the futures pointing up tomorrow, a lot of traders are going to turn around and go, that's it, that's the bottom. That's the generational bottom. Let me go buy stock. And next thing you know, these stocks get rejected at supply. They roll over, take out today's ranges and completely die in a vine. They don't want to see that. If you want to see a reversal, right? If the market wants to see a reversal, we need to see a scenario that the market opens lower, a lot lower. I'm not talking about, you know, down, you know, 50, 60 points on the NASDAQ. We need down two, three, 400 points on the NASDAQ get exhausted, right? Trap a lot of shorts exhausted, go start making higher lows in the first, an hour, first hour and a half of the day and then start taking out opening range highs. So it'd be very, very important to understand that. So this is the way I'm personally thinking going into tomorrow's session. If the market gaps up tomorrow, 1,000% sell buys at least for the morning because I, again, I can't imagine a gap in go scenario after three straight days of down. It just, there's too much supply. If you look at 60 minute charts, you're going to see there's way too much supply at hand. So if that happens, I do believe we'll get at least the trade there, right? In the names like NVIDIA and Amazon and Tesla and Apples of the world, Microsofts of the world, the big ones, right? I really don't want to concentrate on the smaller second, third, fourth, fifth tier plays because they're the ones that are going to have the smallest average shoe range. If you're going to go aggressive, right? And you're going to go follow a green to rent scenario off of a rejection of the 60 minute support, you want to make sure you have a chance to make $10, not 10 cents. So we want to stick to the big guns, right? So if we gap up tomorrow, I'll be watching for the rejections going green to red through today's channels for initial wash into the lower channel of demand. That's going to be a very, very important level. But I want to use that only for cash flow only. It's not going to be one of those scenarios. Well, I think it's going to continue to go lower. Again, we had three really, really big days, incredibly big days of downward bias very, very quickly. And you could slowly see it. We haven't gotten the option to back that up, you could slowly see it, that there's a possibility we may get a turn. Here's the other side of the equation. If we open up flat, obviously we're sell bias as well. The only way I will not be sell bias tomorrow is if we open up down four, 500 points and we miss all the bottom channels of these pivots. And I will start looking back at upward channels back after the 10 o'clock area. And then we'll obviously reassess. So there's a two-sided prong tomorrow. Again, I know the theory if a lot of people looking at the same trade, it's probably not going to work. But once in a while it will. That's the whole point. Once in a while it will. So I'm definitely watching the market on both sides. Obviously, again, it's all depends on the futures tonight. If we gap up, it's sell bias. If we gap down, I'm going to be looking for channels to trade back to the upside. And again, take a step back, reassess after 11 o'clock. So let's talk about today's pivots. Again, we open down pretty aggressively. And if you notice, only the beta names made it on the watch list today. Because again, there's a theory behind this. When you're getting exaggerated moves, as cool as like a Rivian is and a Roku is and a Boeing is, like cool stocks, they can give you a dollar, maybe $2 ready after all this. But Amazon, or at least the old school Amazon, at one point could give you 150. Facebook could give you seven. Tesla could give you 27. So you want to take the ones with the biggest average true potential because if there is a second wave, whether it's a tidal wave going back through the bottom channels or reversal back up, you want the biggest bang for your buck. So tomorrow we're sticking definitely to the biggest stocks. But here's the trades today. Amazon 104, if it builds below can flush. Amazon, again, it's not going to trade like the old Amazon from like what, four days ago, right? You're not going to get $50 candles again. Remember, it's 20 times what it used to be. But nice little move there. Again, with this stupid E-signal chart. So it took out 104, traded all the way down to 102. Again, think about that. It's two points, right? Two points that's an equivalent of a 40 point move in Amazon. So that was fine. Apple triggered late in the day. And Apple triggered with some pretty aggressive put buying. They saw the 130 weeklies. And next month, 125s came in with some pretty big seven-figure bets. 130, 250, if it builds below, can flush. It went down about a dollar into the close and then kind of rebounded a little bit. But here's the 3250. It held it several times. Went down about a buck or so. You got Microsoft that got slammed. 24640 macro, if it builds below, can flush. Here was Microsoft, right? Here's the Microsoft took out 24640s when all the way down to 241. You can see just a really big aggressive tidal wave here. This little Facebook got smashed. 169 macro, if it builds below, can flush. Again, all these things, you don't have to be creative. When I say Facebook, I know it's meta now. I know, I get it, I get it. So it took out that 169 area. I think we highlighted Facebook or meta on the weekend update. Again, big 155 put buyers came in. So it took out the 69 channel and closed right at the lows at 164. Tesla, a big buyer came in for the September 500 puts $4 million worth. 660, 69 for builds below, can flush. Again, still the best stock on the planet. As far as we say, best stock ever, right? So it took out to 660 when all the way down to 644. I still like it. I still think there's a shot this 632, 633 level, maybe not tomorrow, but I still think the stock has more downside. Take on the way down, 649 is the next stop. Here comes meta, 168 on deck. Here comes 10250, pretty much closed to the lows on that as well. So you got some good moves today. You're getting a lot of violence. The key is what happens tomorrow. It's all about, it's all about the cash overnight session. Depending which way the futures will go, we will adjust or dare I say, shall I say pivot into that direction of the market, but making sure every single day we're looking at the market rationally and like an intelligent, rational, responsible adult. Guys, have a great night, God bless and I will see you all tomorrow. Take care.