 $16,240 BTC, roughly equal to $530 million, will be unlocked by GVTC for its investors on July 8th. This will mark the biggest Bitcoin unlocking event for grayscale investors which could cause volatility and possibly a drop. With grayscale's popularity booming in late 2020 and early 2021, numerous accredited investors used the company's products to purchase shares tracking the performance of the primary cryptocurrency. Consequently, some of them had their assets unlocked just recently but the most substantial quantity will come on July 18th. So what exactly does this mean for Bitcoin and what does history say about these unlocking events? Let's dive in. Hey, what's up Jay here and welcome to Bitcoin Daily bringing you guys the best tips, tutorials and ideas to help you guys become profitable and successful investors. The goal of this channel is to empower you guys with the knowledge and resources to take you up to that next level. So if you guys enjoyed this video don't forget to smash that like button and if you guys are new here don't forget to subscribe and turn on the notification bell. So what is GBTC? Founded back in 2013, grayscale is the leading digital asset manager enabling institutional investors to receive exposure to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies through its funds without having to worry about storing and managing their own holdings. In return, they agreed to pay a specific commission and to follow precise rules, one of which dictates that their Bitcoin holdings will be locked for six months, meaning that once they purchase GBTC shares, they would have to wait half a year before receiving the chance to realize gains. As you guys can see in this graph, grayscale's customers will receive the equivalent of over 16,000 Bitcoins on July 18th, its biggest unlocking ever. An important thing to note here is that Bitcoin itself is not what's being unlocked, it's GBTC shares. No spot Bitcoin is being released to the market, only shares of grayscale. It's the investors back from January that are now getting their shares unlocked. Again, no spot Bitcoin is being released to the market. So the question now is, is Bitcoin's price correlated to grayscale's unlocked dates? Let's take a look at the numbers. So first, here you will see that between June 20th and June 23rd, 35,000 BTC of shares were unlocked. Now if we go back and look at the charts, you will notice that we saw a 20% drop during this exact time, starting from June 20th to June 22nd and 23rd. Now this also coincided with the biggest China FUD news and minor sell-off. Now back in December 19th through the 21st, we saw 15K BTC shares released. During that time, you will notice that we had about a 10% drop in the market. You can see the unlocks here for December. Now you'll notice that the next big unlock event happened in early February, right? Now you'll notice here on the chart that in February, it was very, very bullish and there was no drops in prices. This is because during this time is when Tesla and Elon Musk forced the markets higher when they announced that Tesla was accepting Bitcoin and adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. Now if we continue on to March, then we'll see that's the next time we had a big release event. So March 22nd and 24th saw a 17,000 BTC of shares being released and Bitcoin dropped about 14% during that time. It's also important to note that during that time was also the options expiration contract states. So they all kind of fell together at the same time. Now if we look at April 14th, which was the all-time high for Bitcoin, all the way to about May 20th, which was a day after the selling climax here. During that time, a total of 77,000 Bitcoin worth of GBTC shares were released. Now during that time, which was the biggest single-day release in that period? If we take a look back at this graph here, we will see look at May and that is on May 20th, one day after the bottom. So the question starts to become, is somebody shorting purposely in advance of these releases? Because this mega unlock period corresponds with a 50% drop in Bitcoin price. Now it is possible that this is just correlation, but you must admit that it is super suspiciously timed. Remember, no actual Bitcoin is being released to the market and yet the correlation is incredible. Why are the markets dumping together with GBTC unlocks if no spot dumping is happening? It seems very clear that the institutions are shorting big time before major releases. If this continues to play out the same way as before, then it is likely that they will once again short the coming unlock of BTC shares in late July. GBTC investors who bought Bitcoin for 36,000 on January 18th are underwater. This is made more painful by the fact that the trust shares are trading at a 10% discount to spot price. Plus, many of these institutional investors borrowed BTC from firms like BlockFi, so now they need to repay loans with interest and pay GBTC premiums. Many firms entered thinking that they would get an easy 30% profit by running arbitrage. In arbitrage trade, institutional investors like hedge funds borrowed Bitcoin to purchase GBTC shares. Then after the lockup expires, these investors sell GBTC shares to the secondary markets to retail investors, typically for premium. Then they returned the borrowed Bitcoin to their lenders and pocket the difference. It is believed that part of the run up in the second half of 2020 was due to the grayscale neutral arbitrage trade sucking in a ton of Bitcoin. This is not the case now. These firms are looking at heavy losses if they sell, so what's the solution? It's simple, spread, fud, and short. When ETFs and other new ways to access Bitcoin made GBTC less unique, the premium went away, so the neutral arbitrage trade also went away. In theory, a GBTC release should have no market impact on spot prices, but this market like all markets is massively manipulated and the GBTC product is too complex for most investors, so it allows the manipulators to prey on retail by spreading misinformation. If we can get a standard Bitcoin ETF, it will literally eliminate the need for all of this. Who in the world will buy GBTC when there's a BTC ETF? So I know this wasn't really a good news video, mostly bad thus far if you're a Bitcoin bull, but there is good news. After July, there won't be any more big GBTC unlocked any time soon as you can see here. So August will likely be bullish as the effect of the institutions shorting GBTC releases subsides. So you're probably wondering and asking yourself what should you do. So I can't tell you what to do and I'm not offering financial advice at all, this is just my personal opinions and perspective, I can tell you what I'm doing and then you make your decision based on your own research. So this might surprise you, but I'm not doing anything different. I'm doing the same thing that I've been doing this whole time. I'm buying Bitcoin on regular basis and dollar cost averaging. If the manipulators and institutional investors drop the price, I'll simply buy more. Probably not the answer you wanted to hear, but it's the answer that you probably needed to hear. Thank you guys so much for watching this video. If you enjoyed this video, make sure to smash that like button. If you have any questions about anything in this video, drop it in the comments and if you guys are new to the channel, don't forget to subscribe. And don't forget to turn on the notification button. Shout out to Lark Davis who made an amazing thread on Twitter that I was able to grab a lot of information from and bybt.com, which provided us with the graphs that we were able to use. All right, you guys, I will see you guys tomorrow on the next video. As always, peace and love.