 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the morning market kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Good Monday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFNN 9.06 a.m. Monday morning. We got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading and markets picking things up in the negative. We get the S&Ps right now negative 21 points. I got a chart of the S&Ps up here. We're looking at 15 minute chart. Man, you look at the run we had from Wednesday to ending the day on Friday. You're talking about a move of approximately 150 points, almost to the tick. You had a low on Wednesday morning. You're talking about 43.21. You rise up to 44.69.50. We've given up some of those gains. You take a look at it on a daily. Quite the resurgence we had. September, we pull back. You make some lows there. September 30th, actually make a recent low on October 1st. Volatility kicks off October trading, but the market's really picking up. I mean, remarkable. You're talking about an S&P within about 100 points of all time highs as we ratchet up earnings in a big way kicking things off this week. Last week we had banks. Banks beating a pretty big way and you had some volatility in those banks. Let's jump over for a moment as we recap. Bank of America to the upside in a big way from 42.50 early on Wednesday's action. Yep. That's Wednesday's action to close out the week above 46. JP Morgan kicked it off earlier in the week as well. You see all the banks basically right near high city, 72.29 Wells Fargo, kind of a little bit of an outlier early in the week. But man, look at that thing charge higher on Friday, 48.38. The price of close on Friday. Alright, what we have going on. Let's start it off with Bitcoin. Bitcoin down about $1,500 right now at $60,540. So interesting. This may be the week that we get a Bitcoin ETF may happen tomorrow from ProShares. Pulling up the numbers in terms of when you may get this happening. ProShares, Invesco, Van Act, Valkyrie, Galaxy all in line coming up in the next couple of weeks. The story out there though is talking about that it may be coming down the line tomorrow. I believe it was from here we go. First Bitcoin futures ETF to make its debut on the NYC Tuesday ProShares says, so they filed for it unless there's some unanticipated action from the SEC that takes it offline. They will be coming online tomorrow. Man, a lot of expectations. When you think about where we've been in Bitcoin, you've just risen from 30,000 basically to 60,000, a double banker. All I'd encourage you folks is if you're looking to getting in this thing, right, you back it up to this is a monthly going back to December of 2017. Hard to remember it at that time. That's how long ago we're talking about futures in Bitcoin started trading four years ago almost, right? Remarkable. Seems like just recently that futures became the thing. I remember when Bitcoin futures were a thing. It was the first time that it was shortable in a regulatory environment. And what did Bitcoin do? It went from 20,000 down to 3000. Talk about a buying opportunity. You had a 20-bagger back then basically from the beginning of 2019. You start 2019 in the 3300 range. You're trading at 60,000 and 510. The point being, it might be a rumor of buy the rumors, sell the news as in they're buying it in anticipation of that going live. When it does go live, will you be able to sustain $60,000 Bitcoin? Nobody really knows because it's going to be interesting to see how momentum plays out on Bitcoin here as people buy the ETF. I imagine that ETF is going to have to secure Bitcoin much in the same way that the gold ETFs would. That will provide momentum and volatility more so on the upside. But guess what? It's going to provide volatility to the downside as well because when they're selling Bitcoin, it's going to provide more selling. There you go. Nonetheless, we might get a Bitcoin ETF starting tomorrow. We're kicking things off at about 60,000. But there you see the pullback. We go into Friday at 63,000, 525 already. Some of the anticipation possibly waning as you're down almost $3,000 from the highs. You look where we were, you had to print at 330 this morning of 63,230. So almost a $3,000 pullback and the price of Bitcoin still above 60,000. Speaking of commodities, how about crude posting $83 this morning, $83.18. Gold contract right now down about $3. Gold had some big time volatility last week. Big acceleration on Wednesday. We give it up on Friday. We're trading at $17.65. Silver's up $0.12 at $23.22 and we jump to notes and bonds. You're seeing a little bit of a pullback here. We pull up the yield. So the 10-year right now is down 14 ticks at $130.17. We're looking at a yield right now of 1.62% on the 10-year. We wrote like 1.55, 1.53, something like that. You look at the move we've had. You're talking about from where we were Thursday. Right now, this was a big part of the week, everything going on. But where we were Thursday, you were at $131.20. We'll call it $131.195. We round up on the 5. $131.20. Your town of full point and six ticks in the 10-year in a matter of a couple of days almost. Really, the pullback happening all through Friday. You ended Friday's action at about $130.30 and therefore we're down about 14 additional ticks. And we jump to the VIX. Volatility index this morning at the VIX. We ended last week with a remarkable 15-handle on the VIX. We're trading at 1717 as we kick off trading for the week. All right. So it's a big week of earnings as we really kick things off with some of the tech companies out here. I got a list of what we're looking at. Let's start it off with Netflix. They're going to be the biggest name out there. They've had quite a run recently. Netflix this morning, you're trading up about $3, some $6.28 to $6.31. All the markets are in the red. But Netflix, all the anticipation this week, they'll be out with their numbers. We jump over to the Analyze tab. Jump over to the, come on, update, update for me. I know it's not November 11th. October 19th, they're out with their numbers tomorrow. And I believe it's going to be after the market. Yes, Netflix is out after the market. So some of the other companies out tomorrow that go with it. You got United Airlines after the bell as well. Before the bell tomorrow, you got Proctor and Gamble, Halliburton, Fifth Third Bank Corp. Some of the banks rounding things out. Some of the more regional banks. On Wednesday, we get Citizens Financial. We get Abbot Laboratories. We got Biogen. Verizon is out Wednesday before the market as well. And after the close, we get IBM, Equifax, Tesla, the other big name. Yeah. So it's going to be Netflix and Tesla are the biggest names out there that are coming out with their numbers. As I mentioned, United is out there as well. What do we got? We got some airlines, American Airlines, I said on Thursday, Alaska on Thursday, Southwest on Thursday, Chipotle, Mexican Grill after the close on Thursday. So we got some numbers coming right at it. American Express on Friday, Slumberger, Honeywell International on Friday as well. Netflix, you're looking about a 5% move priced into their earnings. So tomorrow after the bell, you jump over to the trade. We're looking for implied volatility here. Netflix, $628 stock. If you just want action through the earnings event, you're talking about $31 implied move. I mean, most time, if you are playing the earnings event, you can't really trade daily expiration options. That tells you how much a volatility premium is priced into that one event. But if you're buying or selling, the expiration is coming up for Friday. You have an implied move of $36 in either direction. Now, we pull up Netflix, we take a look at the daily. This thing has been quite a rocket ship. Let's back it up a little bit more to get the full run. And this thing, man, you go from $250 at the end of 2019 up to $520. You consolidate for a period of about 13, 14 months, and then you break out from $500 to $628. You're talking about making basically all-time highs in the last couple of weeks. Netflix with a $36 move priced in for the move this week on their earnings. Now, we jump to Tesla as we come into this first break. Tesla's been on quite a terror as well, and you're adding to that this morning. Tesla, just rising from 546 May 17th, you're talking about in five months. This thing's going from 546 to 856 or more. So you got a bid ask of 850 this morning on Tesla. And Tesla, you're talking about a $43 move. So about a 5% move for Tesla and Netflix for their earnings coming up this week. We'll take a little look at Tesla as we get back from the break. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. 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But man, that's where you talk about, you know, being able to sell some premium, right? You go to an at the money, let's call it the 8.50. Now, these have not recalibrated until the market opens in 11 minutes. But you're talking about 24 bucks, give or take. You're talking about $40 to $50 to $60 from at the money spread in either direction. That's quite a move. If you're the one paying the premium for those directional moves, you really got some, got to get some big moves to start making some profits on top of making up the premium that you're paying in that equity. But as we all know, Tesla sometimes has some big moves in it. Okay, what else we got going down the line here? Let's jump to one of the other big dogs out there, Amazon. How about planning to hire 150,000 employees for the holiday 50% more than 2020? That might cost some money, folks, to hire that many people. Might be a theme coming through the line. Amazon, you're down about 10 bucks today. Now, Amazon just ratcheted higher on Wednesday. I think it was up like 3%. What is that? It goes from 3,300 to 3,409, 110 bucks. Yeah, you're talking about almost a 3% run on Amazon to close above 3,400. You get back part of the game today. Now, Amazon numbers, they're out late 28th. Okay, not bad. 10 days from now, we're going to find out 150,000 workers, about 50% more than last year as they seek a cushion of workers to help meet demand. The last thing Amazon wants is everybody posting on social media that they order their presents and nobody's getting Christmas presents this year because Amazon couldn't deliver them. Online retailer, largest one out there typically hires legions, but this year it's a different story. Since the pandemic supercharged online shipping last year, they've rapidly expanding logistics operations. It had opened 250 US logistics facilities in 2021 alone. I mean, imagine trying to compete with this company where just in the last 10 months, they've opened 250 more logistics facilities and they're going to inaugurate an additional 100 in September alone as they're really ratcheting things up. Now, the average starting pay for jobs in the US was 18 bucks an hour. Yeah, fierce competition for entry level workers, they got signing bonuses of 3,000 bucks depending on the location and as much as $3 per hour for workers willing to work overnight. I mean, you add the three to the 18, you're talking about 21 bucks an hour, you have a $3,000 bonus in there. They're the second largest private employer after Walmart employing 1.3 million people last year at this time. The company said it would hire 100,000 seasonal workers. So they had a 50,000 number on there for Amazon shares, Amazon down marginally with the market to kick things off on Monday trading. Excuse me, now you want to talk about being down to start off Monday trading. Zillow, I'll be watching my dad show it. Well, he is, we got a treat for you today actually. Basil Chapman is going to be filling in for my dad this afternoon, but Tom, he'll be back tomorrow. And Basil's got an outstanding webinar coming out tomorrow, folks. We're going to talk about that later in the show. But my dad's been talking about this in terms of Zillow buying these houses and turns out he was probably onto something because they're abandoning that plan for right now. They were losing a tremendous amount of money in this venture trying to basically flip houses with very small margins. The market liked it because it provided some growth possibilities even if they were losing money in the short term. But looks like that's not doing so well as the company is working to clear its backlog of properties. Their dad about 7% will pull up the chart in a moment. They're down more than that I think actually recently. There's Zillow from 97 down to 87. So almost a 10%. No, 95 to 87. Okay, yeah. So 7, 8% right now, but there you see the drop off. We pull up a chart of this thing. I mean, does that make sense for how this real estate environment has been going, folks, that you were at $208 earlier in the year? Maybe even if you go into where we were, you take out this outlier spike here back in February on their earnings event where you really ratchet it up. You're still talking about $140 down to 97. You put it on a three-year weekly. You see that we're going to open back up at $87. You're back to where we were over a year ago in Zillow. Now, they acquired more than 3,800 homes during the second quarter. They've seen the stock tumble, okay, after it nearly tripled. I'm trying to get this done. Yeah, so here's the shares have come under additional pressure recent weeks. Vegas said an unnamed company was pulling off a convoluted scheme to manipulate housing prices in its home market. Zillow's facing increased competition from firms like Open Door Technologies that are doing the same thing. Nonetheless, they're abandoning those plans and looks like it just was not going as they thought. There were stories out there in terms of Zillow buying the property, trying to flip it. Only months later, they did not want to be holding properties to be open to the swings of the real estate environment and the market. They were really trying to buy a property and almost flip it in a period of a month or two using algorithms to recognize underappreciated assets, potentially. Nonetheless, that deal not going as expected. I'm sure we'll hear more about that in the coming months as they talk about what went right and what did not go right. As we wait for Netflix earnings coming up, we're all probably familiar with the show Squid Game as of now. It looks like a new show knocked them off. I'm not familiar with the show. I guess it's called You. It's the third season of the American Thriller You. It looks like they got knocked off there for a little bit, but nonetheless. You know what? This is perfect. Who do we got on the line? We got my dad on the line. He heard me talking Zillow. He couldn't help it. Let's go. Good morning. What's going on, dad? What's going on, pal? How you doing, man? Good, man. How about this Zillow? You talked about it many times, man. I saw that headline this morning. I cracked up. Looks like losing all that money, not a recipe for future profits that they think maybe. It's not. It was amazing actually when Zillow first came out and said, okay, they're going to buy houses and they're going to flip them. It's like, okay, man. We've been doing this for a long time, and people think the spreads are much bigger than they are. It's like, okay, tonight, you're going to get a month coming in the marketplace. I mean, the folks that got to take advantage of it is great. I mean, that's the reality, because I think they've been overpaying in a big way, you know what I'm saying? They were losing, I think, with almost like $22,000, $23,000 to house. They decided to buy it and sell it. Yeah, and the market loved that they had some big growth numbers, right? I mean, they were doing it to a lot of houses. They were, and it's like, okay. So now, I mean, they have in there, they're having a hard time. Okay, and that's real. And what's also happening is supplies, you know? So they're probably really smart, stop it. That's the bottom line. We'll see what ends up happening here. But, you know, it's like everyone, you know, between HGTV and, you know, we know how this goes. Everyone, I don't blame them. They want to do it. But the reality is, is that once you start just, you know, it's interesting, just the closing cost on buying and selling, you know, a house ends up being like three to five percent. Never mind, you know, the rest of it. And that turns into monster money when you start talking to a 300,000 dollars at a pot, you know? Yeah. The person who solves that one, man, in terms of that amount of money getting taken out of the market, we'll probably make it with Boku. But the one last thing to add is it's pretty remarkable they couldn't make money in an environment that just keeps going straight up, right? Imagine if they were having a market that actually went down. Exactly. Yeah. Cool, man. All right, man. We'll catch you calling in. Have a great Monday. Okay, thank you. Love you, man. Okay, move on. Stay tuned, folks. We get the market. S&P is down 18. We'll be coming back for the market open in three minutes. Stay tuned. I'll be right back. Are you having fun trading the markets, but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex creditor in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den trading room only at TFNN.com. 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We've got markets open and we've got the S&Ps down about 18 points. 44-44 to kick off the trading week. Jumping around to what else we have going on. We already got earnings out for Albertsons. ACI is their symbol, traded higher, but gives it all up. You're actually down half a percent now on quite a beat. Give it a few minutes as we open. We're back in the green. Marginal action in terms of oscillating right where we were the close of Friday. Now, Albertsons, same-store sales surprise. How about same-store sales rising 1.5% during the second fiscal quarter? They said that this morning before earnings. Market was looking for a 1.9% decline in adjusted earnings for the fiscal year, as much as $2.60 a share, up $0.30 from the previous forecast. Strong numbers there, surprising to see it actually jumping to a share, a negative action on the open. Adjusted earnings rose $0.64 a share in the quarter ended September 11th, compared with 46 cent average analyst estimate. So $0.64 versus $0.46, sales increased 4.7% to $16.5 billion. The market was looking for $15.9. They raised the quarterly dividend to $0.12 versus $10. How are you barely flat on those numbers? You were almost $2 higher at the beginning. Maybe they're talking about something on that conference call, but nonetheless, we dropped out of bed right at $9.15 before the market opens for Albertsons shares. Okay, what else we got going on? Let's jump to Goldman. We're going to cover a couple of Goldman stories out here. First, let's talk about Goldman and their own action. They are raising money. Post-earnings bank bond frenzy with a five-part sale, they're tapping the U.S. investment-grade bond market, joining Bank of America, Morgan Stanley. It's amazing these banks, right? They don't need the cash, folks, but when you can get the cash at these interest rates, they're going for it, and you can't fault them. They're selling bonds in five parts. The longest portion of the offering fixed to a floating rate security due in 2032 is going to yield only 120 basis points above treasuries. Proceeds are just going to be for general corporate purposes. Yeah, and you're going to see that theme persist. There's no way, the best time to get a loan, folks, is when you don't need one, right? When the market's cascading, we see at the banks, they pull all the credit lines, can't fault them there. They did it during the collapse during COVID, and nonetheless, they're raising money, not surprising there for Goldman. Let's jump over to Goldman, see how these banks are trading on the open. There's Goldman up another two-thirds percent, JP Morgan right now, basically flat, Bank of America flat as well, Citi flat as well after some big numbers last week. Okay, the next Goldman story talks about the economy. Goldman says cash pile will drive equity allocations to new highs. Talk about the bull case. High valuations won't be a barrier to increase stock allocations next year due to lack of alternatives and big cash piles. Record allocations by households, foreign investors, mutual and pension funds are set to climb even higher in 2022. This is a note out Friday. It belies the argument that stocks have reached unsustainable highs with Bank of America recently saying valuations have accelerated to extremes. You get both cases out there, and a lot of people making both cases. Their gung-ho view on stocks comes amid growing expectations that the Fed's going to hike interest rates. It sees the 10-year treasury, so it's 1.8% in 12 months. Not a bad number. What are we sitting at? We're sitting at right now 1.6%. That is not that high, folks. If the 10 years at 1.8%, we might have some higher numbers in the stock market. The real risk there is you see inflation, you see higher yields, and that number skyrockets from there. Equity allocations are already at an all-time high of 52% are on the rise because cash yields are near zero, and households own half of the $28 trillion of U.S. cash assets. Did you catch that one? $28 trillion of U.S. cash assets. Fixed income alternatives to equities appear unattractive on an absolute and historical basis. It's tough to argue with, right? You've got a rising inflationary environment. You're going to lock in a fixed income interest rate of 1.6%, 2%, whatever it is. Goldman expects companies to have $350 billion of net demand for stocks next year to record buyback authorizations and strong merger and acquisition activity. Household and foreign investors will be net buyers of $300 billion, and mutual and pension funds will sell a net $400 billion. It said big numbers out there, but you're seeing the bull case out there in a big way. All right. What else we got going on? Let's see. Headlines I have up here. Let me jump around a bit and see what I had pulled up. Yeah, we talked about Netflix. We talked about Tesla a bit. They got Tesla all over the place in terms of Tesla shares roaring back as we await their earnings on October 20th. It's the most expensive FANG index on forward PE. Tesla, what's the number they have in here? I think you're at 120 times earning something staggering like that. Trying to find that number. I had it up here. There we go. Value addition. The company is not the only the biggest automaker in the world. It's a market capitalization over $845 billion is bigger than all of the top car companies put together. The market capitalization fails to reflect the wave of competing cars from legacy auto companies expected to hit the market starting next year. It's interesting how this is all coming to roost, right? We hear it in terms of electronic vehicles. They're catching up. The argument in Tesla's case is that they are an energy company. They harness energy. They're not a car company, folks. Whether they're a data company, they're a technology company, they're an energy company. That is the valuation that you argue that Tesla deserves. And there it is. Tesla currently trades at 120 times. They're 12 month forward earnings making them the most expensive stock in the NYSE plus FANG index whose other nine members, you're talking about the big dogs out there, NVIDIA, Google, Apple, Twitter, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Alibaba and Baidu. Now, interesting they talk about this NYSE plus FANG index. The earnings on this NYSE FANG index in total, I think it's at about 20 times forward earnings. The S&P right now is coming in at like 16 times and I'm paraphrasing those numbers. I think they're ballpark to those numbers. The reason why they've come down so dramatically is because of these two stocks in particular. The spread between the S&P earnings, forward time earnings and the spread between the FANG earnings is the tightest ever, not ever, going back to I should say about I think 2018, 2019. There's a great article on Bloomberg. I'll try and see if I can pull it up at the next break because it talked about the spread in terms of everybody thinks tech stocks are overvalued, but you take the big dogs out there, you look at their forward earnings and you have Facebook actually trading under the S&P earnings. Now, that was as of a week or two ago. All right, and we look at the run, let's take up the daily. Yeah, it's been chopping around. So Facebook was actually at 15 times earnings or something like that pointing to the markets saying, guess what, the future might not be as rosy as we imagine on Facebook, Tesla, the market valuation still through the roof as we continue to rise. I mean, you're talking about right now, we jump over to the fundamentals tab on the thinkorswim platform and you're talking about a company valued at $857 billion. I mean, just for some context folks, you jump over to a company like Ford and you're valued at $62 billion. GM, $83 billion, let alone Toyota, which was the biggest one out there for the longest time, $246 billion, Tesla more than three times the size of Toyota Motors and the forward earnings, nothing like of course, a company like Tesla. And there is Toyota's chart as well. We'll put it back on a weekly. We'll take a look at the S&P and this morning we're giving up some of the gains. You're making basically session lows right now with 44.37 with the S&Ps down 25, tech stocks barely in the red. Right now, you're getting a little bit of volatility but higher on the open with the NASDAQ down 59, the Dow really accelerating 34,919 so much for 35,000 Dow and we got the Russell down about 13 points. Crude holding up well at 82.80 and Bitcoin 61,700 ahead of the first ETF possibly tomorrow from ProShares Bitcoin trading 61,780 folks will be right back after the break. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. From the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating, Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market. 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The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor for Site Fund Services, LLC. 3rd quarter. Weakening to 4.9%, growth set to slow further after weakening to 4.9% in the 3rd quarter. Down from 7.9% in the previous quarter and largely in line with economist predictions. China and Europe are also experiencing growth problems on the back of supply chain issues. On Monday China reported its 3rd quarter GDP grew a disappointing 4.9% from the previous quarter. They put disappointing in here. It's in line with expectations though for some context. As industrial activity rose less than expected in September though, when you break down the numbers below the headline number, that number industrial activity 3.1% below the 4.5% expected with supply chain issues contributing to the slowdown in activity. There you go. All right. What do we have? I got a couple articles I want to talk about. Is this the one? That is not the one I want to talk about. Let me make sure I get the right article up here. Here we go. Talking about the Fed and growth. Fed staff says Wall Street is getting inflation call all wrong. My dad sent up this article to me this morning. Interesting article out there talking about the Fed economists, the inflation undershooting 2% target in 2022. Now, this is an economics article from Bloomberg. Research shows that Fed staff forecast are usually more accurate. Usually is quite a word, especially in the context that we are in a very unusual time in history, which makes it very difficult to forecast estimates as we've seen that estimates have been wildly inaccurate, depending on where you are in the economy. The Federal Reserve's army of more than 400 PhD economists has a message on inflation for policymakers and the American public chill out. Well, some officials are publicly anxious about rising prices and Wall Street has ramped up its forecast. The Fed staff in Washington predicts inflation will be back under 2% in 2022, according to the minutes from last month's meeting released on October 13th. As well as being below the FOMC's long-term 2% target, it's less than half the 4.3% pace that the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures recorded the year through August. Talking about the numbers that we have through August, it's going to be cut in half if they reach that number. Now, here's where you get into things, okay? Everybody has their biases, folks, okay? When somebody tells you that they can separate themselves from the biases, the Supreme Court of the United States, unfortunately, become a little bit politicized in many people's mind, but those are supposed to be the greatest justices, hopefully, in the world, right? That they're supposed to be able to look at a case, separate their own biases. Even they have to recuse themselves because the whole definition of a personal bias is something that is very difficult for you to separate yourself from. I say that because they have in here, Claudia Somme, not familiar, a former Fed economist. While you have a former Fed economist in here saying that you should listen to Fed economists because they know what they're talking about, take that for what it's worth. She is arguing that you should take their predictions very seriously. It doesn't mean it's right, but you have the top forecasters in the world preparing the numbers, looking over time. There's no forecasting shop that can come even close to the board's analysis of near-term economy, keeping in mind, again, she's talking about herself in a prior role in that position. Jerome Powell and his colleagues expect elevated inflation to abate next year, okay, but officials say there's a high degree of uncertainty that would be putting it lightly. Now, staff forecast a year ago, this is what I want to get into, anticipated inflation would pick up from levels at that time of around 1.3%, but not the leap that in fact happened. Policymakers projected inflation of just 1.7% for 2021, folks. Did you hear that? Their forecast, the one who Claudia Somme, not familiar, not thrown her under the bus, I'm sure there's many other people out here that would argue the same thing, but you should take their forecast very seriously. You should take them so seriously that you should look last year and realize how far off they were, folks, okay, 1.7% for 2021. Powell has mainly asked during his post-meeting press conferences about the risk of continuing to undershoot the Fed's 2% goal. He voiced confidence that inflation would rise, okay, so that was how they talked about things during that time. Even so, Fed staff forecasts have regularly bettered Wall Street consensus forecast, according to St. Louis Fed Economist. Again, a Fed Economist, the fact that they keep asking Fed Economists for their views of Fed Economists in this article is probably not the best course that Fed Economists know. They've co-authored documented a significant advantage in 2019, and as we've already been more aware of the consensus forecast, the Economist said in a Thursday interview, just keep in mind, folks, this is unlike any other time that we've ever had trying to forecast where we are in a year with the number of variables that we've had that we've never plotted on a historical basis is just so difficult. And then you have a Bloomberg Economist saying, with regard to their sub-2% forecast for next year, I think it's plausible, of course it's plausible, anything's possible, but both I and they would hasten that a full appreciation for just how wide the confidence intervals are around any inflation forecast. There you go. All right. You can't be that confident when things can just skew wildly from left to right or up or down. A less than 2% inflation forecast compares the FOMC participants who are expecting 2.2% inflation in 2022. Just keep in mind how much they missed the number from last year, folks, when they were talking about that number coming up for this year in terms of where they are. Okay. What else we got going on, folks? I talked about our man, Basil Chapman, tomorrow, 4 o'clock. Basil will be in there with subscribers for his newsletter, the opening call. He'll be doing a 90-minute webinar. That webinar, what to prepare for into year's end and what sectors to focus on. Basil's going to be in there with subscribers, as I said, 90 minutes, right after Tom's program tomorrow. And Basil will be hosting Tom's program today. So Basil's coming up at 10 o'clock. He's doing double duty. He's coming up at 3 o'clock today as well. You can send Basil questions, folks, directly to cover in this webinar for subscribers to the opening call, whether you send him to Basil Chapman at tfnn.com. You can always call him on the program, 877-927-6648. And when you do that, you gain access to his archived webinars that he has for subscribers. Basil also did an outstanding video, folks, on Saturday for a market overview for subscribers, a 37-minute long video talking about the markets, a complete overview for subscribers. So I encourage you to sign up for the opening call. You gain access to the opening call, his daily trading service. You gain access to his archived webinars. You gain access to the 37-minute long video. That's a webinar in its own right, folks. He does it almost every Saturday. I'm not going to say every Saturday because it's not every Saturday, but it basically is. He puts out a video every Saturday now for subscribers, 37 minutes long. He just did one on Saturday. You instantly gain access to that for a full market overview. You gain access tomorrow night for 90 minutes. You get a month of his newsletter, and it comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee. Can't go wrong there. Check it out on the front page at tfnn.com, four till 5.30. And of course, that will be archived if you can't attend live. It should be an outstanding webinar, as usual, with our man, Basil Chapman. And stay tuned because he's coming up next, Basil, with the Tiger Technicians Hour. All right, checking back in on the markets. And what do you know, folks? They're buying the dip. NASDAQ charging to higher prices at four points. Growth stocks higher. We get the S&Ps minus by six. We get the Dow off 126. Come on back. We'll finish up the show. We're going to be talking about one of my favorite stocks, trade and lower, on a downgrade today. Disney, after some news on Friday that they might spin off ESPN. Not sure that that's a real deal. Nonetheless, down about 3% today for Disney. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure. But you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis. And it's not just dry tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV. Live every market day from 8.30 AM to 4 PM for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFNN, educating investors. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. You get all the markets in the red right now, but all the markets catching a little bit of a bit on the open. S&P is negative by just 7 right now. NASDAQ 100 negative by, we'll call it 7 as well. Jump over. They're talking about Macy's in the YouTube Tigers. My goodness, look at this one. Up 4% today from Macy's. Didn't see any news off the bat. Retail stocks charging higher on Friday. Maybe just an extension of that. You get a dollar boost right at the beginning of the open there from 24 to 25 Macy's. High above 4%. You jump over to Amazon, up by about a third of a percent. Some of the tech stock's doing well today. Microsoft barely in the green right now. Apple's going to have an event today. I believe they're talking about new MacBook Pros that they'll be pushing out. Apple right now down about a half a percent. Other news we got fundamentally today. Factory output falling in fresh supply chain warning. This morning, speaking of supply chains, as we have, manufacturing production falling 0.7% the most since February. The declines reflect pullback in motor vehicles and non-durable goods. You get into the number there. Quite a decline. 0.7% decrease. The market was looking for a 0.1% monthly increase in both factory production and industrial output. Total industrial production, which includes mining and utility output, fell 1.3% in there. Car troubles, a big number. You had motor vehicle and parts output fell 7.2% last month. That's after a 3.2% decline in August. Automakers, including Toyota, they've been slashing numbers. They're still dealing with some big problems here in a big way. Those car companies, you're talking about decreasing numbers at a time when they just can't get a hold of the chips they need to produce the cars they need to. Let's just jump around again. We get Tesla this week. Tesla, look at this. It doesn't stop. Tesla up 2.1% ahead of their numbers. Netflix. Watch out. Netflix down to 2.3% trading at $6.24. We got Chipotle Mexican Grill later in the week as well. Chipotle up about 2.10%. We take a look at the three-year weekly. This thing's been quite a rocket ship. From the lows of $400 during COVID, we came into this year at $1,400. We're trading at $1,835. When we'll finish it up, about a $76 move. You're talking about $1,800 stock priced into their earnings coming up on Thursday, I believe, 21st. Yes, it is Thursday. All right, folks. Thanks so much for tuning in.