 We're back. We're live. It's the 11 o'clock block here on Think Tech and we're doing global connections with Carlos Juarez in the University of the America's Puebla in Mexico. Fifty miles, I get this right now, Carlos. Fifty miles east of Mexico City. Carlos, say hello to the people. Aloha, hello and welcome. Joining you here from Puebla, Mexico. Yeah, great to have you on the show. And Jean Fidel, my brother, fresh from Yale. Aloha. And today we're going to talk about Brexit and its international implications. Things are not going well for Theresa May. So Carlos, why don't you lead off? You had a bunch of slides. Why don't we hear from you on that? Yeah, thank you, Jay. Of course, we're facing a very critical moment now in the issue of UK and its decision to exit or divorce itself from the European Union. So I just wanted to share maybe a quick overview and provide some of the context. What is this Brexit issue? What is the EU for that matter? We can go first to the number one that I have here. It's a little paper brief chart that describes the thing the European Union, of course. It is a political and economic union of 28 countries bringing together a partnership, a unique partnership that's been in the works for many, many decades. And really its origins begin in the 1950s. But what we know today as the EU is formalized in the early 90s, 93, by the Treaty of Maastricht. However, again, before that it was evolving. And for our purposes, we're going to talk about the United Kingdom. They actually joined what was then known as the European Economic Community in 1973. They were not the founders. They were a smaller subset of six countries, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, France, Germany and Italy. But the UK would join in the 70s rather reluctantly and with a lot of skepticism because that becomes relevant when we look at their crisis today. But what is the EU again? It brings together these countries that are all democratic, obviously promoting peace and prosperity and freedom, about 500 million citizens of the EU. And this is a very short time that one of the member states has decided they want to exit. And so the so-called Brexit refers specifically to a referendum held in June of 2016 in the UK that barely passed but had a majority who decided to exit. And over the last two and a half years, almost three years now, but especially the last two years they have been negotiating with the EU officials to figure out what kind of deal they could arrange, what would be the future relationship. Well, let me turn to number two. We're going to have a map of the European Union itself that just shows the 28th member state and it also briefly shows the years of that session. So it started with six and then nine and then 12. It was the UK joining in, as I mentioned, 1973. And so this map just gives you a sense, it is most of Europe. There are a few exceptions like Switzerland and Norway that are not members. But for the most part, it brings together both today of Western and Eastern Europe, Northern Europe and the Southern Europe as well. Let me move very quickly. I'm going to go through a lot of these slides just to give us this context. Number three illustrates what we would call the Schengen. Schengen refers to a treaty also that basically provides for the borders, of the outer borders of the European Union, that allow for the free movement of people within those borders. So today, when you're crossing from France to Germany or Spain to, you know, France, officially it's like going from a U.S. state to Oregon. There are no borders, checkpoints, free movement of people and goods. However, that's just been a source of some tension and the rise of a lot of anti-immigrant sentiment. And in the case of Britain, the UK, a desire to want to control some of who gets into the country. So this Schengen just illustrates again, it is a concept of the free movement of people, et cetera. Let me move again just to get us to have more of a discussion. I want to show another map, number four. It is a map of the United Kingdom itself. You have to understand that it is a collection of basically more countries, if you will. You've got the England, the dominant main power. You have Scotland to the north, Wales on the western side of the island. And then across a piece of the other island, which is the northern island. And that we'll come back to because that's one of the picking points today about their decision to exit because the other majority of that island is the Republic of Ireland of separate countries and also a member of the EU. Finally, let's move on again just to give us a little more of a context. The number five graphic I have is a map that illustrates the Brexit referendum and the results that were held in June of 2015. And again, it did pass as a majority and it surprised many. It was a big shock, if you will, because it was uneven. And by that I mean it was, on some level, a generational difference. A younger population voted mostly to remain and did not want to exit. But also more rural areas, particularly of England, because as that map will show you, you know, we vote in Scotland, for example, and in parts of Wales, and even London were against Brexit. They preferred to remain, but the majority prevailed. And so the results were in favor of Brexit or exiting the UK. Finally, let me move very briefly to number six, because this is where we see one of the picking points. And we'll talk about this a little more, you know, what is this Brexit, the exit. One of the picking points has been the question of this border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland, which is a separate country. And, you know, with the UK deciding to leave, there is a, you know, no longer being part of the Customs Union, of the single market. What does that mean? What would they have to, you know, for example, put up customs checkpoints, borders. And this is a, some of us will know the story of beginning in the late 60s and all the way until 1998. This is a region that experienced a lot of violence, the Terran violence between, you know, different groups. And it took a lot of negotiating. And in 1998, they reached the North, basically a set of a court that basically, you know, solved and addressed a peace agreement. And today, those borders are open. But what's going to happen after you leave? That's kind of the picking point. And again, I'll come back to this later. Lastly, and we'll allow us to now move to just talk more about this. I have a picture number seven. It just shows Theresa May, the Prime Minister, who became the office shortly after the Brexit referendum in 2016. Because after that result, the then Prime Minister, David Cameron, who had supported remaining in the EU, he basically lost the confidence and lost his feet and set down to be replaced by Theresa May. And she has been negotiating this exit. It hasn't gone well. She's in a deep crisis now and just returned, you know, days ago from meetings with the EU officials to try to offer another deal. And just, we saw the results today. And just yesterday again. And so they do not have a deal. And they don't know exactly how they're going to exit. And here we are with a crisis just a couple of weeks away from the date that was set for them to depart. 29 March. Let me stop on that. I want to turn to some of you guys. And maybe you guys can take it for a minute. And we can follow, continue the dialogue. What are the implications? And maybe clarify some other parts of what's happening so far. Jim, can you help us with what the crisis is? What are the factors? What are the arguments? What are the constituencies? Well, I think Carlos has laid out the demographic issues within the UK. I'm less familiar with the demographic issues on the continent. And of course, you know, this whole exercise is like playing Hamlet without Hamlet because Mr. Putin and Russia are an active, maybe too active observer participant in this process. And beneficiary. And beneficiary of the chaos. But I wanted to make a couple of observations. The first is on the domestic side, in terms of the legal institutions of the UK, then Carlos, please correct me if you think I've got any of this out of focus. But what we have here is a set of stresses on a variety of the domestic legal institutions of the UK. For example, this was a decision that reflected, the Brexit decision was reflected the results of a referendum. Well, referendums are not really a regular part of the British constitutional arrangements. Parliament is sovereign according to the unwritten British constitution. So why is there a referendum? And did the conduct of that referendum undermine probably the cornerstone of the British legal arrangements? So that's one observation. The second observation is the British courts have gotten involved. There was litigation over whether parliament, the referendum having occurred, could continue to play a role. And that went to the UK Supreme Court, a relatively new body, although its roots are in the centuries-old House of Lords. So that's another one. My own sense is that what you're seeing here is one of those cataclysmic events that occurs roughly every 100 years in the UK. The first one that comes to mind, well, I'll start with the Union of the Crowns of Scotland in England. I mean, that was 16.0 something that created the current basic arrangements. A century later, there was the act of settlement and it became the United Kingdom of Great Britain in Ireland. A century plus later, in about 1832, there was reform of parliament. Parliament had been filled with rotten boroughs that were run by the major landowners and noble families. About 80 years after that, I think the year is 1911, something like that, where the House of Lords lost its power to do anything more than really slow down legislation. And then we have this controversy. So there are roughly 100 year intervals. Maybe it's like sunspots, but this may be the mother of all challenges to the basic British constitutional arrangements. You provided some good context. It's fascinating because traditionally, for many years, we look at the UK, their system of government, the Westminster model of parliamentary democracy. It's very stable, very orderly. It's long been looked at that way in the field of comparative politics. Today, it's in deep crisis and chaos and the weakness that we see of the current administration there. But I want to just maybe add a little bit of what you've mentioned. Given this, what's interesting, when this referendum took place, which as you notice, it's not a regular affair for the system of government there, it was also one that, I think, we may find out more in time, but was there involvement from outside forces and the use of social media to sort of manipulate public opinion and specifically thinking about whether there was Russia involved, because we know that they've been involved in the US and in other places as well. But certainly it is creating a serious crisis of not just for the UK, which the implications are, it could have a downturn of the economy and just the polarization of the political environment. But even for the European Union, because for many years, it has been moving forward, expanding and deepening, so that today the citizens of any of these countries are governed more by EU laws and EU rules. And of course, that's one of the reasons that was pushed by those seeking the Brexit, that they wanted to have less control from Brussels and the EU and more control over their own, let's say, rules and sovereignty. So a lot of it is driven by that. But it's a moment of real crisis for the UK, but also for the EU, because they don't want to see this and they don't want to make it easy for the UK so that others could potentially follow suit and see the infection from Poland or Hungary or from other countries. So the process is one that requires a lot of negotiation for the UK to leave. They're going to have to pay a big fat bill. I think I see figures 35 to 40 billion US dollars equivalent, basically as commitments that they have, obligations they have to make. And then the real sticklers are including what economic relationship will the UK have? Will it be completely out or will it be somehow some form of a ranger where we'll have access to some of the market and there are different views and the different camps about this. Let me finish by saying also that it's not such a neat, we have the Brexit here, the favour exiting and we have the remaining side, but it's not so black and white in the sense that there are some who favour a very hard line, maybe hard Brexit, complete separation. We'd like it to be a more softer version where there might be a relationship that stays and it's not so deep, but that doesn't satisfy others. There are still some who would argue today they would like to have another referendum to somehow revisit the whole question because today we see the chaos that has been gendered and for many people who voted maybe that they would rethink it and one scenario that could it all be reversed? They just go back to where they were. I'm not sure that's in the cards at the moment, it's still on the table, it's still there, but yeah, it's interesting, this is the concept of the referendum that hasn't been the norm in the British system, but here we have it today and a lot of uncertainty, a lot of chaos. So it's sheen again, Carlos. Thinking about the referendum a couple of months ago I was in England and I had dinner with two members of the House of Lords. I'm not going to identify them, I'm not going to identify them private conversation, but I asked them where they thought the path led and what would happen if there were another referendum. And as of a few months ago these two legislators, their life peers and they're not their hereditaries thought that the result would be the same. That Brexit would be approved yet again. Do you have any more recent information and more to the point, what are the bedding, the labrokes, the people who give odds on these things saying? I haven't seen a lot of detail on that but my sense is that you're talking about two members of the elite House of Lords and do they represent the society at large? My sense is that maybe speaking more for maybe the younger generation I'm more in contact, I've had students here from the UK and for them it was really a an outcome that they were quite dismayed to learn because of course the younger generation are more mobile they have opportunities to study and work in in ways that change of that or exit from the European Union will obviously jeopardize. But it's one of those things, as we look back at that referendum, it was a rather quick process and it was one that the campaign itself for those who promoted Brexit it was presented as a pretty straight forward and easy process and somehow it wouldn't have the kind of cost that we are now seeing it will have. So I don't know I don't have a control, I don't want to speculate or even guess and I haven't seen evidence of it but certainly today there are some who are going to say, gosh we didn't realize it was either this or that the potential was that it might go worse. So let me interrupt with a question. So Mrs. May has repeatedly gone to Brussels to put one reframing after another of her negotiating position in front of the authorities of the European Union and she continues to come home empty handed. Now my question is and I have a hunch about that. I'll tell you what my hunch is after I give the question. The question is to be a little colloquial are the authorities in Europe jerking her around or are they making, are they saying you know you haven't really presented anything new. In other words in this kind of kabuki is it kabuki on both sides. Is she going there just to show that she's given it you know her best efforts or alternatively are the people on the European side the European Union side putting up objections in hopes that Brexit crumbles and that in fact Britain will stay in. I mean who is kidding whom here? Yeah What a great question. That's a great question. I'm going to give you one minute to think about the answer. I think you deserve a minute for that and then we'll come back and we'll discuss this further we'll take a short break. Hi I'm Rusty Komori host of Beyond the Lines on Think Tech Hawaii. My show is based on my book also titled Beyond the Lines and it's about creating a superior culture of excellence, leadership and finding greatness. I interview guests who are successful in business, sports and life which is sure to inspire you in finding your greatness. Join me every Monday as we go Beyond the Lines at 11 a.m. Aloha. Hey Aloha my name is Andrew Lanning I'm the host of Security Matters Hawaii airing every Wednesday here on Think Tech Hawaii live from the studios. I'll bring you guests I'll bring you information about the things in security that matter family safe, keep our community safe we want to teach you about those things in our industry that you know may be a little outside of your experience so please join me because security matters Aloha. I'm Jay Fidel of Think Tech our flagship energy show among the six energy shows we have is Hawaii the state of clean energy it plays every Wednesday at 4 p.m. come around and see us learn about energy keep current on energy on kawai.com Okay we're back with Carlos Juarez in the University of the Americas Frabra and my brother Jean Fidel from Yale talking about Brexit and as we left it there was an important question hanging and Carlos was going to take a minute to think about it so what is your response Carlos? Yeah well you know it's not such a quick and easy answer let me say that on one hand for you know the perspective from the European Union are they jerking her around or not I mean I think they want to make sure it's not easy or simple or without pain in other words they do want to be firm and if anything I would say the perspective we see is that they are blaming the current let's say predicament squarely and directly at the UK and the fact that the parliament did not decide or rather was never consulted about what kind of Brexit it wanted before the negotiations began in other words even though everyone knew the MPs would have the final say there really was not a clear debate or discussion that clarified that role and so on one hand I think it's pretty clear that the European leaders are disappointed with how it's played out and again that they don't want to make it easy maybe they would on one hand there are some who surely would like to see it all just somehow crumble and then the UK just decide well okay well we regret what we did and we'll just go back to where we were because even that outcome is one that you know it's not going to be easy if we would present you know some heads would have to roll I don't know but I have a sense that from the perspective of the EU they're saying look the onus is on you you're going to leave you got to decide what are the terms and I think regretfully Theresa May has just not been able to play that role she hasn't been able to keep some of her own supporters in line moreover it's not a simple her party supports this and the other party doesn't there's a real divide even within the parliament you have many in the Labour side who very much are supporting the Brexit maybe variations of a soft version you have even in the last couple of weeks after the recent crisis I think it was after January but maybe within the last month we saw defections from both the Conservative Party and the Labour a small faction that was being a separate sort of more independent group that could hold the cards and some of this you know and so at the moment just a real chaos and uncertainty prevailing in the British parliament and all the while Theresa May just looking more and more weak she goes down there she visits Brussels or Strasbourg a few days ago and just comes back empty handed and I think again for the Europeans they're like hey you've got to figure this out and they're holding pretty firm they basically want to make sure that they stay unanimous in their agreement and so they don't have defections among themselves and so far that's been the case the EU has been pretty firm shouldn't Theresa May simply resign shouldn't she drop out and if she did would that help because we have the deadline ahead of us yeah I think she's got to quit I think she's got to resign that she can survive now two major votes you know lose two major votes and still pretend to be Her Majesty's First Minister I mean is crazy actually and I think she's doing incalculable damage to the legitimacy of parliament but I want to ask you a question Carlos do we have any sense of where the palace stands on this is that a complete black hole it is for me in part because there's been for many years a tradition where they tend to stay out of giving their views about this and so when you mentioned that I don't know I haven't seen any kind of real role or proposition or anything obviously they're going to have concern about not seeing fall apart and then the political crisis that exists now I agree Theresa May I mean her days are clearly numbered she's not going to be able to bounce back from this and gain a lot of support but when does she step down I mean is it right now to kind of try to cobble together yet another deal the more immediate the likelihood and what the scenario that we're facing with the 29 March deadline is that right now I understand tomorrow Thursday they're expected to have a vote whether to request an extension or buy a little more time kick the can down the road and again here again you know will that help or is it just buying more time for the same thing but basically when we look into the future here of various scenarios the worst case that nobody wants which they rejected today was no deal that they exit with no deal because that and you know just everything kind of it doesn't give them a transition period it just the non-starter for many is there a further vote we've had that already is there a renegotiation that's been going on to no avail is there another referendum again there doesn't seem to be a lot of groundswell for that because of challenges there is there a new election that basically a vote of no confidence that brings down the Prime Minister and kicks in a whole another dynamic or is there a scenario for a no Brexit where they simply reverse it again any of these could happen and we have one more election can you take a look at trying to wrap this up yeah I mean I think what we're looking at is a train wreck and there's going to be major institutional injury lasting institutional injury that England is going to feel the Brits are going to feel for decades and how about the US going to feel any of that we have our own problems Carlos last statement what would you like to leave people with what message just this last point you raised about the US because even under the Brexit there was this idea and even under Trump's new presidency that somehow he was going to make better deals and special relations with the UK I think there's a crisis that we see now even makes it harder for any prospect of a US UK agreement just because of the chaos and uncertainty that's unhappy here so it's anybody's guess but the scenarios don't look good many options all of them pretty tough and bad ones crisis uncertainty chaos so far the only winner is Mr. Putin well thank you very much Jean Fidel Carlos Juarez for this important discussion on Brexit I hope we can revisit it soon and I think everyone should be following it I'll see you guys