 Hi, my name's Leon Roe, currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis. If it's your first time watching a warm welcome to you And if you're returning an equally warm welcome to you and before we get started I would just like to ask if you could press that like button Subscribe and also share with your fellow colleagues on other social platforms like Facebook as it would really help the YouTube algorithm and I guess our trading 180 process is to really apply our Fundamental analysis to establish directional bias and then apply technical analysis strategies, you know supply and demand strategies to time trade entries risk management and established profit targets, so we use a combination of fundamentals and risk Sentiment analysis alongside technical analysis to really determine and pick the best forex pairs as well as determine trade direction in the medium to long term and try to you know get them in the short term as well, but generally if you can Predict and forecast Price in the medium to long term then the short term will work itself out eventually. Anyways, let's get into this week's fundamental analysis week ahead summary and The war between Russia and Ukraine has taken almost all markers attentions Sorry attention and there is little hope that next week will bring any peaceful solution to the conflict So things are escalating a little bit on the macro side the US Federal Reserve And Bank of England are set to hike interest rates other important data releases include US retail sales Germany ZDW economic sentiment index labor UK labor indicators and China industrial Production so just a little bit more detail. I guess From trading economics, you can go to trading economics.com. It's my go one of my go-to sites and In the US the Fed is expected to deliver a quarter point rate hike on Wednesday Which should be the first increase in the Fed's funds rate since 2018 investors will keep a close eye on Fresh economic and interest rate projections and any comments on the central bank plans for its nearly nine trillion Dollar balance sheet any guidance on the inflation and growth outlook will be scrutinized at a time at a time commodity prices remain elevated due to Russian sanctions and The uncertainty over the war in Ukraine lingers. So there's that as well and And really that's that's really the fundamental analysis behind it, right? It's all rose lead back to You know GDP and inflation as to what a central bank will do So elsewhere in America inflation rate and retail sales for Canada. Yeah, so that's gonna be Watched, we don't really focus on Brazil or Chile in the United Kingdom The Bank of England is expected to hike interest rates for the third straight meeting by 25 basis points to 0 7.75% bringing borrowing costs to pre-pandemic levels aiming to curb inflation Currently running at 30 year highs in the US is 40 year highs of 5.5% before the war in Ukraine the Bank of England had forecast inflation to peak at a third year high of 7.25% in April well above their 2% target when Energy bills and taxes are due to go up on the data front the UK unemployment rate and In the three months to January is set. So that's a quarterly unemployment rate, which is always worth watching as it's a an economic indicator for GDP In the three months to January is set to fall to its lowest So that's generally good news when in unemployment falls. That's great news employment rises Great news, right? and wage growth is seen Accelerating and in Europe German investor morale is expected to plunge to its lowest in two years when COVID-19 hit Hurt by Russia, Ukraine conflict and mounting inflationary pressures So other key economic indicators include eurozone final inflation data industrial activity balance of trade and fourth quarter wage growth. All right, so there's lots of Data coming out for the for Europe It will also be a busy week for Japan with external trade figures industrial production private sets of machine new orders and Inflation rate reading I think that's the most important thing before the Bank of Japan meets on Friday The central bank is widely expected to leave monetary policy Unchanged amid a record beating rise in wholesale prices as consumer price inflation remained Well above its 2% target again I've talked about this all the time on my channel And I've got many different fundamental webinars talking about and explaining, you know the impact of inflation why central banks have Well, they have to meet their central bank target of Sorry their inflation target of 2% where it's mandated, right? So if inflation starts to go higher central banks generally have to high crates to Appreciate their currency to try to bring inflation down Also the Bank of Japan should downgrade its economic assessment due to the worst and expected impact of impact Sorry of the Omicron variant in consumption and the war in Ukraine. So again, that's the reason why they're keeping potentially Interest rates on on hold right leaving monetary policy unchanged. Yeah, so because The economy has to be able to support an interest rate hike. So, yeah, some interesting Fundamental analysis here if you know really know what you're looking at then you and understand what's going on here Then that is a brilliant information and we get into I guess some more news as well But let's I guess get into some of the technicals and a little bit more fundamentals to go alongside that and starting off on the dollar index and The US dollar index It's just a measure of dollars jump against the major currencies like the euro the yen and the pound and last week's analysis I was looking for a pullback to a demand zone. Unfortunately, just didn't get any right. I've been saying buy the dollar for for for a good year or so You can see pretty much the what's been happening, right? Just higher and higher as you've been going along So, yep, just really waiting for a pullback now a lot of traders will say things like oh, well, should I buy? You know once they start hiking know the money's been made right the money has been made and I'm not telling that you telling you that you Shouldn't buy it depends on what your strategy is if you're following along with With trading 180 and supply and demand zones. You have to wait for a pullback, right? It's just the nature of where demand is, you know, if you trade in breakout strategies, then fine You know, you can trade a breakout of a level if you want to right? That's up to you But I'd never be a breakout trader ever ever ever you couldn't pay me enough to be a breakout trader I don't care if it's a profitable strategy or what supposed to support profitable strategy if it was and everybody would be doing it Right, but it really isn't Plus the guys as well We know about stop hunts and and the like and how and capture pain relief and how breakout traders get caught and how we Take advantage of those strategies, right? We take the other side of those losing traders. So from that perspective You know when it comes to buying the dollar. Yes, I'm a buyer of the dollar have been for you know for for a good, you know, 11 12 months you can go back through the weekly analysis videos and Double check if you want But for me, I'm looking for a pullback now. There is demand here. I don't like this demand zone really don't Hesitate to draw it like that. I'm not gonna draw like that I'm gonna wait really for prices to get to come down because there is demand from this, you know It's moved there and there But from the perspective of Looking at that as a demand zone. No, I'm not gonna I'm not gonna bother with that I'm probably just more gonna look for again any kind of pullback into that in 97 area would be a nice Confluence, right? So we're not trading the dollar index. We're just looking at Confluences, so if you're buying the dollar and you see prices come down here and you see some positive price action to the upside and You know, for example, you want to be a buyer of the dollar yen for the dollar Swiss or the dollar CAD For example, you're waiting for, you know, the the confluence in on those charts as well to align With the dollar index, you don't have to but it's it's always decent confluence If you are looking to short the dollar and buy the rumor sell the fact because there are times Well, the market is really priced in a 0.25 basis point right? That's pretty much it. There's no surprises. There's no Say 0.25 basis point but to 25 basis point or a 0.25 percent Increase the market has already priced that in from, you know for months ago So if you are buying on the the fact I'm not saying that prices can't go higher because of course they can but if you know and I'm not here to predict Nobody knows no one knows what's gonna happen, you know when they high crates But whatever does happen if it's a pullback then brilliant I'm looking for a pullback and looking to buy if it goes higher Then I'll still wait for a pullback in a demand zone to buy So it's just you know, I'm not trying to Buy at a high. It doesn't make any sense. You know, it's It's trading suicide right to buy at highs constantly buy at highs So just wait for pullbacks for me anyway And that's my bias if you are looking to sell the dollar for whatever reason if you think it's gonna be doom and gloom in the You the US economy coming up and they probably might be right not necessarily in the short term But maybe in the medium to long term, you know, they're gonna Potentially there's talk about recession I can understand why not saying that it's going to happen But if it does there are gonna be moments when you can short the US Dollar and I think you know at the moment this may be an area of supply as we're in that area They tend to draw supply from the last bullish candle open price to the high but just for For I guess illustration purposes and just kind of keep the chart a bit cleaner Join the demand of the supply zone from here Sorry, and you can look for short trades if you're looking for short trades into and again Not necessarily on the dollar index, but just short trades on the dollar yen dollar Swiss or Z dollar etc. If that aligns with the zone that you want to get shot at and Again looking at the Federal Reserve again We've already covered this Federal Reserve set for liftoff with 25 basis points hike with the economy growing strongly creating jobs in significant numbers and experience in the fastest rate of Rate of price inflation in 40 years not even the uncertainty and financial market volatility Caused by Russia invasion of Ukraine will deter the Fed from hiking on Wednesday We continue to look for 625 basis points hike this year and two more in 2023. So again, the market is very bullish banks are bullish and Again, if they're bullish because the fundamentals not because of Elliot wave or you know Bollinger bands or anything like that we know the path of where you know where the path of least resistance is and You know so many people call themselves trend traders But don't really understand why the market is trending in the medium to long term We've been saying this for like I said for a whole year. We've been saying buy dollar by dollar Not financial advice or what I'm buying and it's really kind of planned out in the in the medium to long term So with that being said Dollar for me is a continued buy But for me where it is now not great. I'm looking for a pullback of some sorts of prices to pull back Then to these types of levels, then I'm looking for confluences on the you know other other dollar pairs. Anyways, it's not about me And what I'm doing so much It's really about the understanding the reasons why the market moves and then making your choice as to what you want To be a buyer of dollar or a seller of the dollar for example or not even trade the dollar Moving on to the dollar yen dollar yen again We'll be looking for pullbacks dollar yen just didn't get that pullback to that zone looking at last week I've really wanted price to come down to that 1450 area Unfortunately, it didn't and prices just went off without us without me But that just presents another opportunity right and I get another pullback into a demand zone Right, so demand. Yep. Didn't catch it this week But if it pulls back to that zone there for me, that's where I really want to be a buyer of that dollar yen As far as supply goes we are heading up into a zone that has You know 2014 sorry January the 4th 2017 zone now I don't know how significant that is from a supply zone perspective Because whatever drove prices lower around here. Is that going to be the same thing in 20? You know 22 that's going to drive prices down there might be profit-taking for sure, but I Don't know I don't know about about selling that Some traders may want to do it do it in a short term. I'm not really one of those traders I'll rather just wait for pullbacks and continue to look for buying opportunities So yeah fundamentally only be a buyer of the of the dollar the Japanese yen does strengthen in risk-off environments 100% but at the end of the day It does come down to it can come down to economics as well as far as you know the fundamental analysis With regards to you know GDP Inflation interest rates what the central bank monetary policy is and if the Japanese and Bank of Japan are not hiking rates And the US dollar are then you should see something like this, right? This is what's been happening over, you know for a very long time. Yeah Again, you can go back through my videos people say oh well This is hindsight bias go back through my videos over the past year I've been saying the same thing over and over and over again pretty much weekend week out Anyways, if you do want to get short You know there is a day opportunity, but I don't like that set up at all. I'd rather prices prove that there is a Reason to short in the short term so a new freshly made supply zone And then for maybe some bad news on the dollar or you know some great news on the Japanese yen But for me my bias is to the upside on that dollar yen dollar Swiss I'm still in this trade gotten from a couple weeks ago from this this area here. That was my My buy trade on that candlestick and now it's played out right nice really nice swing trade Prices are broken through that supply zone Let me just clear up the chart a little bit again waiting for who's waiting for pullbacks to Come if you were looking for brand new trades Anyway, there is a demand zone has been created right here so any pullbacks to that zone there could be a decent buying opportunity demand and Yeah, I think where we are there so At the moment prices are you know making higher highs any pullbacks into this zone I think is going to be a really nice area and those of you who are in the group in a private mentoring group Will recognize this as a nice level CPR on the daily So and if you do want to join the mentoring group, we are opening Enrollment starts on the 28th of March and it'd be for a limited time maybe about five six seven days For the opportunity. I know many of you've been a direct message of me and asking when enrollment starts 28th of March 20 to 15 days from now or from the recording of this Video so check back on that date and in one will be open again. It'll be for a limited Time only so if you do we're gonna take your chance to be Mentored by me then that is your opportunity. So you're getting back to the charts It's really just buy trades for me on this on this currency pair The Swiss Frank is seen as very expensive So pullbacks all the way if you are looking for a sell trade then and buying the Swiss Frank Over the dollar don't know why you would but Actually could be could do it in a risk-off scenario, of course, but currently I don't think I Don't think the Swiss Frank is gonna strengthen too much Oh, you know strengthen over the dollar too much anyways And it could of course, but if you do want to this week get short That's a decent shorting opportunity But just understand that the more times the level is touched the more The weaker that level becomes so you probably will expect maybe a bit of a pullback and in prices to kind of push through that Area there because it's no longer really a bargain. It was a bargain here at this price It was a bargain here at this price even a bargain at that price for the for the Swiss Frank But the more times Price looks like a bargain the less it becomes a bargain, right the analogy that I always use is If you're if you're looking to buy a Ferrari and you can get one for you know for cheap, you know The first time brilliant that's excellent, right? But then all of a sudden if it starts to you know Sell often at that price and people start the more people start selling at that price. It becomes less of a bargain, right? So the price becomes starts to become common. So That that's no longer cheap for the for the Swiss Frank if you're getting short anyways moving on to the What we are next sorry the Dollar cat right dollar cat getting a bit of a harder trade to take Two strong currencies to central banks looking to high crates With the dollar and the US so again a bit of a mixed Pair not really looking to trade this but if you are prices did come up to this fresh area of supply and It did sell off and now we've also created an area of an extra area of demand which needs to be Drawn from here. So we've got quite a wide zone And again when you've got a wide zone of demand or supply Then the best thing to do is one of the things you can do just one of the things you can do is really Break down that zone and look for supply and demand Sorry support and resistance within that area, right? So Sorry, here we are so within that large area of demand Right because prices have made a new hide is definitely demand there strongest area of demand would be somewhere around here You can look for areas in there or you can look for go down to maybe a lower time frame like the hourly and look for Look for trades, sorry More fingers and thumbs today Support resistance zones within that area of demand, right? So there that would be a nice zone to look for a buy trade if you think that the dollar was a bog in down here Against the Canadian dollar or whether you think, you know, you want to be a buyer of a Canadian dollar Then you're looking at supply zones on the higher time frame and zoom down into the lower time frames for for your entry Yeah, so that's pretty much it. I think this was a really nice area nice technical trade But not necessarily the best Pair to trade I think I'm looking to trade this short I think I'm gonna have to wait for prices to come above that supply zone before looking at short trades on a stop hunt moving on to the New Zealand dollar US dollar and again to strong currencies or appreciating currencies and Prices to come up fresh into this Supply zone spiked the high We took out a lot of stops above that market high and then decided to go on its way again. You've got two Central banks look into high crates I'm a buyer of the New Zealand dollar, but just not against the The the US dollar, but if you are looking for short trades now is a decent area if you're looking for buy trades again I think this 67 67 0.6775 the start of this demand zone might be decent for a long trade But I'm really not interested in this currency pair at all fundamentally, which means I'm not interested in it technically Moving on to the pound dollar and last week's analysis stood on here I was saying that the path at least was just since last week is to the downside if I was gonna be a buyer of one or The other saying that you know prices should want to probably go to the downside and that's pretty much what happened You know again, you've got two central banks that are looking to high crates at the same time And again, I'm a buyer at a British pound, but just not against the the US dollar and So what we're seeing right now is the dollar strengthen Against the two out of the two supply zones if you are looking for a a sell trade and trying to sell the The pound against the dollar and buy the dollar against the pound and that's going to be the first area to look for and I think technically I think that's actually quite decent Do like that top zone there, but from the perspective of The pair don't like it at all We go There's another area probably around here as well as decent for a Potential short, but again, I'm not really looking to trade this pair If you're looking to buy the British pound zooming out, I guess you've got a an area from 2020 About a year and a half nearly two years ago. You've got some demand there and Yeah prices are coming down at that demand zone But I'd probably rather wait for proof of value for prices to really kind of go higher and prove that there are There is demand at this zone and then wait for a pullback internet zone before looking at any kind of long trades Whether you want to call it a double bottom It's up to you, but it's that's really where I'd be looking for Any buyers, but I'm looking to trade this pair anyway, but looking at the pound the pound You know one of the reasons why I'm a buyer of the pound not against the dollar But against some other week currencies would be because the UK GDP shows little sign of Omicron and it's increasingly Clear that the UK economy is unlikely to see much if any lasting damage from Omicron but while the jury is out and whether the UK is now headed for a recession and If so how severe growing inflation pressures will make it hard for consumer spending to avoid a downturn late later this year, so the GDP Figures shows very little lasting damage, right? So it was it was decent, right? So having declined by only 0.2% in December that means that activity levels are back slightly above pre virus levels so there is There is some positivity in at least a short term But again in the medium to long term later this year, there could be a potential slowdown as I think the UK are being more affected by the the war in in Russia Potentially, so let's see what happens there But for now I'm a buyer of the the the pound but again against other currencies not against the dollar moving on to the Euro dollar Euro dollar and So yeah with the Euro dollar unfortunately Say unfortunately for the Euro Unfortunately for anyone who's been paying attention, you know, there was there was a bit of a sell trade here on Oanda, I think it's the data is slightly different to I think it was what's the broker called again FXCM and FXCM I think this feels a bit of a supply zone here, which allowed for a potential short. I Didn't get involved in this because there were other criteria that I wanted to get in look for but from this So I went the chart anyways, you'd have to have looked for a higher level In order for there to be a short trade From a from a demand zone perspective if you're looking to buy the euro, there is an opportunity to buy the euro Anywhere from now Right and looking for buy trades Why would you want to buy the euro in the face of? You know the against the dollar anyway Is is it's a tough one? But we do have some euro news and the ECB moves cautiously with normalization So the European Central Bank just announced how reduced QE in the coming months net asset purchases will now be bought down to 20 billion per month in June while in October So they brought that forward in light of stag of the stagflation risk and high uncertainty The decision gives the central bank maximum flexibility and keeps the option open for a rate hike before the year ends So they are still lagging behind, but they are making positive steps to potentially look to appreciate their currency because Inflation works if prices the euro is devaluing it pushes inflation higher And a higher reading of inflation means that what the central bank needs to do actually is try to appreciate their currency the European Central Bank need The euro to appreciate and go higher to cause inflation to come down So with that being said you can see that they're making steps But again, it depends on whether the market believes it I think there is going to be a definite time to buy the euro not really against the US dollar But I'm looking closely at the euro and if they start to recover economically and the And the Russia-Ukraine Conflict starts to ease or there's a resolution and I do think that euro will be a buy Again, not really against the dollar but against other currency pairs So buying opportunity there selling opportunity there as I said I've been saying partly resistance at the moment is to the downside and so as long as the Russia-Ukraine tensions keep going The the dollar is going to be the stronger out of the two Moving on towards the dollar Australian dollar US dollar and again to currencies I would probably say that the US dollar should have the the edge over the Australian dollar but the Australian dollar has been strong due to commodity prices rising around the world And that's really helped the strength of the Australian dollar plus Geographically the Australia are very far removed from the tensions and the Ukraine and Russia Tensions and war that's going on. So with that being said This pair isn't a pair. I'm really looking to trade But if you are then you're looking for sell trades there and potentially some buy trades You know last week prices did come down into that demand zone Right and then there was decent a lot of pips to the upside Potentially if you zoom down into that the lower time frames and managed to you know get in on you know somewhere around here, but But this pair again isn't something that I'm looking to trade The in a straight fight the US Dollar should win should appreciate over the Australian dollar, especially from a monetary policy perspective, but Again, it's a harder harder trade a harder pair to trade Fundamentally so and risk sentiment wise I'm not really looking to take that trade at all even look at that pair And then we've got the Australian dollar Japanese yen and again, even though we are in a risk-off environment Money has been flowing into the commodity currencies So with that being said All right, there are again. There is a demand Zone right here and by the way if you're you know scratching your head and thinking well, you know This is what you know one thing should happen over another. I've created several videos on YouTube really kind of explaining This this this concept of of Of risk Sentiment not always being just you know risk-off means by the yen and the Swiss franc and and sell commodity currencies and risk on means Buy commodity currencies and sell risk off typical safe haven currencies, right? There are nuances there are nuances and if you go back through the last maybe couple videos that I've done on fundamentals and mastering fundamentals I talk about this So anyone who's paying attention would have known from last week That you know the Australian dollar was probably more of a buy So yeah pullback has created a nice demand zone Yes, the Japanese yen does do well typically but not but in this in this environment and What's happening now and the nuance of the war and and where it is? I think and the fact that commodity prices are rising Which is helping the Australian dollar. I think for me I'm really a buyer of the of the Australian dollar over the Japanese yen so any pullbacks into any of these zones for me is Is a buy also from a monetary policy perspective the Australian dollar and the RBA the RBA are looking to high crates At some point this year probably maybe second half rather than any time soon But again, it's buying the rumor, right? Yes, that's you know, you have to buy the rumor from now because by the time they do hike And if they do hike and things work out then that would be probably too late to buy you missed out on really the move So finally gold and gold pulling back Reached the all-time highs Blasted through that supply zone and as I always keep saying as well that you know There's no supply zone or demand zone or technical analysis level that's gonna You know stand in the way of you know good fundamentals on this sentiment But we have pulled back profit-taking going on here to anyone who missed out on the move if prices do come down to this Demand zone here. There's a nice buying opportunity. Yeah, the market can go higher just doesn't move in a straight line So let's see what happens From now if you are looking to buy gold and gold Again gold dealers swamped by demand as war creates inflation scares So there are several things going on there's war going on inflation scares Uncertainties of gold blurts of levels reached during COVID-19 pandemic Retail investors are snapping up the metal across the globe so gold is playing its age old role as a safe haven in times of wars and Crisis and people all over the world are piling in so Russians invasion of Ukraine has sent price of everything from oil and gas to wheat and metal skyrocket skyrocketing sparking inflation fears and threatening global growth. That's driving retail investors everywhere from Vienna Just and Singapore to New York to the safety of gold which spiked 2000 and 70 dollars and 44 cents announced close to the record reached during the pandemic and Again, it wasn't hard to tell Why this was why this was happening So so yeah, if you were a buyer of gold, you know well done to you well done Now if you do want to be a buyer of gold then you really looking at you know pullbacks This is going to be an expensive area at the moment. This is definitely the bargain area So, you know, you don't really want to be buying at highs So if prices can pull back a little bit more a bit more patience Let's see what happens and then that could be a view the buying opportunity if inflation fears start to subside and The war in Ukraine starts to subside as well Then that actually is going to be a really nice sell trade on gold. I think but again just watching inflation and Commodity prices start to come down. I think gold will start to come down. But who knows No one can predict the future and let's see what happens With that anyways guys, that's it for this week. I hope you enjoyed the analysis and I hope you have a great trading week and speak to you soon. Take care