 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network This week in college football. We have got our first batch of college football playoff committee rankings We have got a wild and crazy Davos Swinney rant. We have got more Connor stallion sideline pictures We've got Georgia taking on a pretty fun Mizzou team. We've got Washington taking on USC It's a good week talks from college football We're gonna do exactly that for today here on covering the spread previewing week number 10 with Dr. Ed Feng Getting his reading those initial rankings from the CFP committee talking about those key games and more for week number 10 This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research mighty miss Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joint here as an every Wednesday by dr Ed Feng find his work at the power bank comment check about on Twitter at the power You're wearing a Michigan hat today. I kind of thought we might get a central Michigan hats with a fake I guess you could probably you could grow a goatee, but then also the sunglasses to go full Connor stallion. So is that next week or are we too late with this being now post Halloween? I do envision a place in my house where I display all the hats that I wear on Covering the spread on the video part of this show And maybe maybe central Michigan is a is a reasonable one to add that we're actually on TV last night You can see the snow some of which made it all the way here to Ann Arbor But no no no Connor stallions No, no no Connor stallions. I don't understand like I mean there's been pictures of this guy, right? Like kind of on the Michigan sidelines supposedly given signs or whatnot But no maybe central yeah put that on the power bank budget, we'll see we'll see we can make that happen Talk to the powers that be over there Yeah, exactly what they counting people think see we can expense this I think the one issue with it is that with the the the central Michigan pictures It's like hard to tell if it's him because like he kind of has and I say this as a generic white boy He has generic white boy face where it's kind of like he looks like a lot of guys like He just looks like a lot of dudes like if you're riding a bike down You know Lake Shore path in Chicago you're gonna see like six guys who look just like Connor stallions And that that makes this a lot tough here I kind of wish you were a bit more distinct the way he looks it'd be easier to identify Hey, is it actually him or is this just a random dude on center Michigan sideline? Great, I find it interesting that there's there's a you know, there's a piece of news that drops every single day about Michigan and science ceiling and Connor stallions and this stuff should be random, right? If we were just coming out If we're kind of a natural process shouldn't come out once a day, but you know, we're getting stuff once a day I don't know if we've gotten anything for Wednesday, November 1st but Yeah working on it It's like the like the McCarthy era stuff was fitting given You know quarterback in Michigan and the McCarthy era stuff They would always like release this random news right before like papers had to go to publish They couldn't fact check it it kind of like it's not that Cuz like the a lot of the reports being released here clearly fact-checked but like you know It's kind of smart at least at the end of the day see what happens people can believe it or not kind of thing I get the playbook if you're trying to you know, push this agenda, which it's probably true But like, you know push this stuff. I think they're going by the right approach of leaking one thing each day for sure and ESPN's getting clicks for it. Yeah, who's getting clicks for it Washington Post is getting clicks for it And honestly man, like all the Michigan sites are getting clicks and like reads to that's right Everyone in the media industry wins because of Connor Stallion's everybody Yeah, we got a piece. Yeah, absolutely. Thank you Connor Stallion's for giving us so much fun Now we'll talk about actual football here today, too We're gonna break in to the initial CFP committee rankings break down what that means kind of takeaways from that We'll talk about some really fun games this weekend with that Mizzou Georgia game And of course LSU Alabama and Washington USC as well But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast later on today Tom Vecchio break down Thursday night football between the Titans and these Steelers that'll be up with prime time Tom Breaking down props for that game on the covering the spread podcast feed and over on fan dual TV plus to get fangirl TV Plus go to fangirl.com slash watch and log in with your fangirl account or Download the fangirl TV plus app on Amazon a fire Apple TV or Roku devices Score early this NFL season with fangirl America's number one sportsbook right now new customers get $150 and bonus bets with any winning $5 moneyline bet That's a hundred fifty dollars if your win if your team wins if you've been thinking about joining fangirl There is no better time to get in on the action the app is so easy to use there's a wide range of betting apps clean spreads player props totals and more So visit fangirl.com and kick off the NFL season fangirl official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states Fandal is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star casino LLC $5 pregame moneyline wage required first online real money wager only $10 first deposit required bonus issued is not a trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt See terms at sportsbook.fandal.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fangirl.com slash RG in Colorado Iowa Michigan New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Arizona 1 888 789 7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat Connecticut 1809 with it in Indiana 1805 224 700 visit chaos gambling health commie, Kansas 1807 770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 1801 gambler.net in West Virginia 1805 224 700 visit chaos gambling health convert That's actually in Wyoming. Hope this year was a gambling helpline ma.org or call 100 327 5050 for 247 support in Massachusetts or call 1877 a hope and why or text hope and why in New York Now last night ed the college football playoff committee released its first batch of rankings with Ohio State coming in at number one Followed by Georgia then Michigan then Florida State and Washington one through five and obviously a lot will change between now And when the playoffs are actually set But did anything stand out to you when you actually saw the CFP committee's rankings? Actually, I think they're pretty good I think it's pretty Appropriate to have a high state at the top because they've actually played some teams and beaten Penn State beaten order dating Those are pretty good football teams Georgia Michigan second they're gonna get more of their tests towards the end of the season We'll talk about Georgia in a little bit. I kind of get the feeling that they're getting going So and I think they're definitely I mean there's a reason that they were definitively the number one team in the nation At the beginning of the season Michigan I still kind of some questions about their defense I don't I'm not sure that it is great And I think it they have to prove that they're gonna hold up even at Penn State I know Penn State's offense has kind of looked terrible lately But I still think that's a really tough test for them and then obviously against Ohio State I think right now Michigan should probably be lucky that they they don't have to place like an LSU Or even like a USC So we'll see how that unit does and then and then we kind of get into the you know The fraud alert teams right the Florida States and the the Washington's of the world's Florida State look they're having a great season You know, they actually look pretty legitimate just by numbers this year. So success rate Margin of victory yards for play and stuff They're actually the sixth best team in the nation So they kind of be deserved to be in this conversation But we all know that they probably shouldn't have beaten Clemson back in the day so And then Washington, you know, I mean look pretty bad recently and Yeah, we'll talk about them in a little bit as well. I'm particularly interested in this Oregon team I think I've talked about this Oregon team quite a bit how much better their defense is gonna be Like I'm making them like a 12 and a half point favor right now against USC in a couple weeks Same against Oregon State. They probably get Washington again very I mean Very easily could be in and I think when you look at the quality of the teams You should put Oregon ahead of Florida State and Washington Really understand why the committee didn't right? I don't expect them to actually do that because they are looking at the win-loss column and and I Doesn't freaking matter at this point anyways, right? A lot of this stuff is gonna figure itself out, but I'm definitely looking at Oregon I'm really fascinated by by what they could do Now Oregon is plus 165 a Fandall sportsbook and Ed I think that to me says that Fandall is on the same page as you where they're high in Oregon and Believe they have a chance to make a run here because Washington is plus 155 Oregon plus 165 So I feel like even if you do agree that Oregon is in a good position. I feel like the sportsbooks are accounting for that Would you agree with that with Emma 165? I Think so. I mean I think I mean right now we expect Washington, Oregon to kind of get there I Think if I did these numbers like I have Oregon so far ahead of Washington that I would have Oregon flipped Yeah, but I don't think it's unreasonable to have those odds for Washington but But yeah, no, it's it. Yeah, I think I think that yeah, I do think the markets are generally accounting for it I think they understand how to get this Oregon team is and they also understand that Washington is a very tough test coming up This weekend as they take on USC and that spread is tightened. We'll talk about that in just a bit here as we dive into the actual games for this week Let's start things off though by talking about Mizzou at Georgia right now Georgia is a 15 and a half point favorite with the total at 54 and a half and Ed Mizzou's only lost so far is to LSU. They've had pretty comfortable wins over Kentucky and South Carolina since then Can they keep this game close enough to cover a pretty large spread against Georgia? Yeah, for sure. I mean, I think they certainly have a chance to cover I think Mizzou's had a fantastic season. We talked about them I think they're only losses to LSU and that was definitely a game that they were in the entire game I do feel like Georgia is getting back to being Georgia after kind of the scare at Auburn When you look at their numbers their fifth and my justice success rate on offense I think Carson Beck has looked pretty good recently The numbers on defense aren't as good. They're 31st in my justice success rate Bill Connelly did a little bit more of an analysis and he thinks the defensive line is not really up to Georgia's standards They're not getting pressure without bringing blitzes So it doesn't seem like it's quite the same Georgia defense that we normally get but I Mean, I think that means they're you know, they've come back to the pack a little bit But I still think we need to respect this team You know, my numbers make it Georgia by about 11. So definitely suggesting value on Mizzou I'm I'm I'm not getting in the way of this Georgia football team Hopefully it's a close game and it'll be something that we get to engage in and and that'll be fun but I'll pass on this and There's a reason you're passing is that in part because Georgia does seem to be trending up I know that they don't have Brock Bowers anymore But last week I feel like even though they didn't have Bowers That might have been one of their more impressive show-ins they've had and they came without him So I feel like sure that to me got a lot of weight personally Yeah, for sure, right and like all these teams have you know Kind of different trajectories over the course of the season, right? And if you're Georgia and you're coming into the season, do you need to be amazing in September? Yeah, probably not, you know, you're dealing with the new offensive coordinator Still trying to figure things out defending back-to-back defending national champions I think it makes sense to try to peak in November and December. Yeah, and it seems like they're doing exactly that as we move into November now Georgia taking on Mizzou Ed's numbers do show value Mizzou, but likely staying away from that one as of right now Let's talk about LSU in Alabama, right right now Alabama is a three-point favorite total this game is 60 and a half and The Alabama offense Ed has been up and down for sure But they're facing LSU now and to beat LSU you're gonna have to put a point So how do you see this game playing out? Right, I mean I looked at this and you know my numbers have Alabama by a point and a half and You think there's value on LSU simply because look their defense wasn't supposed to be this bad, right? They're 88th and my adjusted success rate. They were supposed to be a lot better They were incredible last year on both sides of the ball But then you look into it a little bit more and their secondary is just absolutely decimated with injuries Cornerback Ziya Alexander is out. They got another cornerback that's been out with some personal issues Just I mean just a mess back there and not exactly, you know, Alabama is not exactly providing the you know the most intimidating past offense, but as Much as I think that LSU is probably better than their numbers have been this year You just can't give them that kind of credit when you're missing regulars back there I also want to give a little bit of a shout out like I mean I have Lindy's preseason magazine for college football and I was looking back at it this morning and I kind of thought that LSU's defense was gonna be good just with the track record They had last year same recipe of bringing in a lot of transfers impact transfers that they did last year They were actually pretty down and and actually the tone of their write-up was like, yeah I don't really think this is gonna be good. They have so much to replace in the secondary So they kind of saw this coming a little bit. I think So Yeah, I mean I kind of want to bet LSU here, but I just kind of can't give in the mess in their secondary Yeah, the plus three is minus 105 So you are getting a decent number on the plus three But like you said, it's probably explained by the cornerback injuries So the gap between your model and the market explained by injuries and injuries especially in the secondary matter here So I feel like staying away probably the correct route to play in this game And it's a cluster injury too, right? I mean you're looking at multiple guys that have like top ten number of snaps on their defense They're all out this week. It's not good. And then, you know, LSU's offense has been amazing But they're they're they're facing the number one defense when I look at adjusted success rate Which is which is not much of a surprise, you know an Alabama's end, right? So, yeah, I mean, hey the number say it's gonna be a close game I hope that's exactly what we get on Saturday night close and high scoring. I will take that It's not the LSU Alabama of old, but it should be fun regardless Let's talk now about Washington on the road against USC We're right now the spread is down to three It was three and a half yesterday and the total is 75 and a half at minus 118 on the over for this game And USC has definitely had its issues recently, but we know they can light up the scoreboard So can Washington top them to keep their perfect season alive here? Yeah, we'll see. I mean the market certainly thinks so. I mean, I have this much closer to a pick and I Don't know I mean, this is a tough game to handicap right because both these teams have kind of been wretched over the last couple weeks and When you look at this Yeah, I mean, I think just for that is it's it's tough I mean, I think Washington's getting the benefit of the doubt because they are undefeated. I think that's gonna be tough I think it's gonna go down to the wire You know USC's defense has gotten a lot of flak and I actually after the Notre Dame game I did an episode of my podcast where I said that they're You know, I looked at their adjusted success rate and they were 34th in the nation, which was honestly kind of miraculous They weren't as good by your answer play They were 55th and I said, hey, you know this defense might better and that's looked absolutely awful in the two games since then They're still actually only 38th in my adjusted success rate, which is you know, if you just If you just say that, you know, you can be in a top 40 defense with that offense You really like the prospects for this team hasn't really worked out that way They've dropped a 71st and in yards for play. They're still giving up those explosive plays whether it's the backup safety or whoever is going against them so Yeah, I don't know I mean, I still think there's some value I'm actually a little bit bummed that I that I missed USC plus three and a half at home I'm hoping to get off this show As soon as possible and try to go find that number. I do think there's value in there I do think this is gonna be a super close game I wouldn't be surprised at all if USC wins and shoot out and It's also a lot of points, but you know, there's gonna be a lot of points. This is these are two pretty good offenses One thing I will note Washington hasn't had Jalen McMillan for the last couple games It was it was generally fine against Oregon But has not been since like their offense really hasn't been as good. How much does that injury matter? He's probably questionable again. He played a couple snaps the last couple games but clearly is not at the level of Where he was at the beginning of the season, which was one of the best wide receivers in and all of college football So I think that's a story to keep keep an eye on they have two other receivers that are amazing and they really should be fine, but I Think you can actually ask the question whether whether they need him whether they need that alpha In that receiving core to to really be at full strength So I do I look I would bet USC plus three as well. Yeah, I can't find plus three and a half, but But but I do think there's potentially value here It is kind of one of those games that makes you want to throw up in your mouth a little bit we get these in the NFL a lot more but Yeah, it's been an interesting story for USC, right? I mean, there's so much pressure that kind of comes with being the rating Heisman Winner right like he's kind of Kayla Williams is kind of out of the Heisman race and Jalen Daly knows is also on a two-loss team with a Terrible defense and he's he's right in the Heisman race. He's doing better than Williams is at least statistically, but Yeah, interesting season for USC wouldn't be surprised if they win this the plus three and a half right now in the Alt market if Andalus sportsbook is minus one thirty eight the plus three as the baseline is minus one twelve So you could get the three and a half here But worth noting that you're paying a pretty hefty price for it But as always shop around take best betting practices in general when trying to place your bets as always What about elsewhere Ed? Where else in week ten you seen value for this week in college football? Yeah, I kind of want to go back to the big twelve this is this is we have Kansas State and Texas and Kansas State is really one of those teams that you Kind of forget about I kind of you know I was looking at this game and my numbers found a little bit of value and I kind of forgot that Kansas State won the big 12 Championship game last year like if you remember that like it was kind of They beat TCU it didn't really matter because TCU still made the college football playoff But this is a really good team right they brought in Adrian Martinez from Nebraska quarterback and you know Will Howard ended up playing most of the minutes last year and Will Howard has been pretty good this year so yeah, so Kansas State has been pretty good on the offensive side of the ball They've actually been their ninth in my adjusted success rate with Will Howard this year. That's pretty good That's an improvement over last year and they don't have Deuce Vaughn who was incredible last year They came in a lot this season with a lot of questions on defense But they kind of helped serve there. They're 24th in my adjusted success rate. So look my numbers have this at Texas winning by about three and a half points So it suggests value in Kansas State plus four and a half But we also have to remember look Texas doesn't have point of yours They got one game with Malik Murphy and he was fine. They had about a forty two point three percent success rate against BYU Last week that seems pretty good compared to the college football average of about forty percent But you also have to remember BYU is like not a good task defense They are ranked 89th and they would be expected to give up about 42 percent against an average FBS team I think there has to be at least a little bit of a downgrade because Quinn Ewers is not gonna play in this game I really like Kansas State. I think they're a solid football team solid football program And I think there's value in plus four and a half on the road here Yeah, we talked a lot about how the gap in quarterback to play in college is not as big as it is in the NFL But Quinn Ewers like an NFL caliber quarterback I think that that means the drop-off for him is bigger than it would be for most other college quarterbacks Yeah, I think so. I mean maybe Malik Murphy is great Right. He beat out Arch Manning who is supposed to be the you know the next coming of quarterbacks there Look you can't there there's probably downgrade and it probably at least a couple points So when I see that I think I like it actually no, I know I like it and Yeah, I don't know isn't this like the first week in a while that I haven't been fading Kentucky Yeah, but my number is actually saw some value on Kentucky And moved on to the next game But Yeah, it was interesting like very happy that Tennessee was able to cover last week but kind of horrified that Devon leary actually played a pretty good football game. Yeah, and And and did some good things for the first time. I think all seasons so right Isn't it kind of weird that you're like you feel uneasy about a game where you took it at three and a half You got CLV is a close at four they won by six and you still feel a bit uneasy about I think that kind of says How low you might have been on Kentucky? Justifiably obviously based on the way the results went but like, you know in general I felt pretty good about it having bet it Telling you on that and I understand, you know It says how high you were on fading Kentucky when that to you felt a bit uneasy Yeah, I don't know if one easy is quite the right term word. I feel like I was kind of in I was like wait He's actually slinging it today. Like his numbers look pretty good. What is going on? Yeah, it actually worked out in my favor because I had a Ray Davis under Yeah, actually, I think I put that on my newsletter. Yeah, I did put that on my newsletter So I had Ray Davis under I don't know 90 and a half rushing yards. So the fact that Devon leary was slinging it actually worked in my favor because they were kind of shutting off the run and then they were calling more Passes towards the end of that game because that was what was working. So In some sense, I was happy. Yeah, so I'll take it. We take wins wherever we can get them, right? You can win two bets at once. I think that's always a positive for sure So win last week Fred on Tennessee minus three and a half this week It's Kansas State plus four and a half at minus one ten and then check around to on the Washington USC games even get three and a half on USC still out there That is all that we have here for today on Covering the spread and is back with us once again tomorrow talking NFL week number nine got some pretty fun games there with Dolphins cheese have also got those bangles So pretty fun week coming up break that down tomorrow here on the show But add until then if you want to find your numbers and your newsletter, etc. Where can they find all that? Absolutely my podcast is the football analytics show. I had Eddie Walls on this week. He's a pro better Probably mostly known for his college football stuff because he does work with right angle sports But we also got into a pretty long discussion about NBA and how he bets the NBA and how that is both the same and Different as this college football process It will be up Wednesday night So I definitely look for that the football analytics show wherever you your podcasts and then also check out my newsletter At the power rank calm I send out five nugget Saturday and if you're looking for action on any given weekend I try to give you the smartest version of that possible action. I talked about having Ray Davis under Fortune-up that that worked out and oh is you know, I've been me personally like I've been handicapping the props in there Mostly NFL interceptions, but started branch off a little bit in to college football And then I tried to get NFL college football bets from other people as well My newsletter you also get some of my opinions on things earlier in the week So check that out at the power rank calm and again the podcast the football analytics show to get that conversation Eddie walls Find Ed on Twitter at the power rank. I want to enter at Jim Sonnis You can also find me on threads at Jim dots on us You can find fendal research on Twitter at fendal research want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to either bets across Wednesday. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down NFL week number nine This has been covering the spread right here on the fendal podcast network