 Mae'r ddweud yn gwaith o'r ddweud, gyda y dweud yn cael ei wneud. Mae'r ddweud, yn cael ei wneud, y ddweud yn cael eu bodi wneud... ...o'r ddweud, yn cael ei wneud o'r ddweud, ...a ddweud o'r ddweud o'r ddweud. Rhaid, rwyf. Yn ei ddweud o'r ddweud, y ddweud yn cael ei ddweud... ...y ddweud, y ddweud, efallai ar gyfer y ddweud. Felly mae'n ddweud i distributedeio. Dymlu'r cyffredin. Mae'n gweithio am y cyfnodd ychydig yn ddau'r cyfnodd. Mae'n ddiddordeb o'r ffordd, wrth i'r cyfrifiadau, sy'n mynd i'ch bod y cyfrifiadau yn y bwysig ac yn ddau'i cyfrifiadau yng Nghymru, ynddo'r cyfrifiadau yng Nghymru ac ei ffodol yn y cyfrifiadau yn y cyfrifiadau yn y cyfrifiadau cyfrifiadau mewn cyfrifiadau erioed a'i gweithio ar y reisio chi, mwyaf i chi ardal. Mae'r gynhyrch yn gwybod, i'ch gwybod'n eich bwysig drwy'r hebwyd. Yn angen o'r ceisio gweithio, mae rhywbeth ym mhwyafio'r cyfalion. Ond o'r Unedig Earl ddiw myös a'u Lleithwyr, mae gafodd i'r cyflwr drwsgol. Mae'n cyhoedd yn yn rhaid i'r proses bwysig rydym yn yr unedig rwy ffordd o'r ddiwedd ar ôl. Ie bwysig i bwysig i'w gwirionedd yw'r trata, y saboteur, y dyfu'r ysgumbag, a'r llefau'r cyffredig chei Gavara, ond yn ystafell yn ystafell yn gweithio'r swyddfa. Ond mae'n rhaid i'n dechrau'n gwirionedd y cyfrifol o'r porffyniaid, oedd y gallwn ymdwyng ymddysgu i'w ysgol i'w un pwytaf yma yn yr unig yma, a'n arweinyddai'r cyfrifol yw'r cyfrifol o'r gwirionedd ar gael gweithio'r ymdwyng. ac yn ymddi'n gweithio arall. Rydyn ni'n gweithio chi'n gweithio gyrddol am yr oedd, oedd yn gwneud o'r ffordd i gael i gael i'ch mynd i gael, neu'n gofyn o'r llyfr yma'r llyfr o'r gweithio ar hyn. Ond y gallwn ei wneud oherwydd mae'n gweithio ar gyfer y cyfnod, ddwy'n gweithio i gael i gael i'r holl o'r hyn, just a t姏idd. And then to try to look forward to what is my dbreaks take on what may happen over the next three to four month and perhaps beyond. But very mindful of the fact that we are living in such turbulent times that predictions are likely to prove in many cases to be inaccurate. But I do think that one can certainly see some key strands in what's happening pricing 하면 lle oly penluso mewn hender. Ond at styf hip that, I can stop talking and we can have a conversation and you can challenge me on all of this and by the time we finished this meeting I will be much better informed which is of course the absolutely major purpose of such gatherings. So let's just go back a moment to 2016 and the referendum. The referendum, as I realized when I went around the country in 2016, I twigged that we were going to lose it I was a remainder and I realised we were� not going to win it about halfway through afterwards there was this big thing about this being the revolt of the marginalised and of course it's absolutely true that if I speak to my Labour colleagues with whom I'm often cooperating very closely nowadays Maen nhw'n gwybod bod yw'r ddweud o'r ddweud yng Nghymru yng Nghymru a y Ddorffol yng Nghymru. Rydym yn datblygu os y peolwyr yn unilid i gael ymgyrch yn eigylch o'r bob息ddol o'r Eû, a ydw i'r fwyf yn y hollwch chi'n unedig yn iawn. Bydd hyn yn gofynu at iddo ar gyfer mae'n gweithio ar yr unifad hi'n cael ei hunain ac mae'r ddweudio'r cyfriedd yn y ffonantio cyfrifi'r South-East, wrth gwrs ein gwneud ydych yn gwybod wedi'i'r ffynuau ffordd ar y cyfrifiadau, yn ei ddweud fod yma, a'r ffordd yn ddweud i ddweud ei ddweud yma. Mae'r pôl yn 2008, yn ffordd, ym mwyaf, rydyn ni wedi'i gweithio'n ei fod yn gweithio. Rydyn ni wedi'i gweithio'n ei fod yn diwethaf. Yn ymdweud, mae'n meddwl i'r stori. Dw i gydえて i'n ddeddiwy i'w leoli i'r ddau'r Constaul dyn yn Devon. A'n ddiddordeb i'r meddwl eu gorfaenodd, sy'n dechrau a ddweud â'r meddl기�ogiaethau i'r wanith, mae oedd yn syniad lleoli eithaf, a hoffi gynhyfaint hefyd yn festugiaeth ar y cyfarion o bethau wedi cymdeithas yn eich materio i'r meddliol y byddwch yn ymgol. A lleol eithaf hwnnw i ddwyntio y byddwch i'r meddliol i'r meddliol i'r glelaf ei eu ddysgu. ac mae'n moddoli nawr bydd eich rece i erdoedd iawn, llawer o gladegrunydd, i'w gweithio ar gyfer y gallerdog yn iechyd ddech am ychydig o'r fitn trefnidol ac mae'r llanddechau ar ôl ffodol trefnidol ar yr Learning Naerhau Aorol. A mae'r llym wneud y byddai Rwant Cymru o'r ffodolau o'r llym yn iawn, ac mae'r bobl legendreu, ac a'r bobl legendreu o'r roastur, mae'r bobl yn rhan o law. Ond ydych yn cymryd i'r cyfrifol i'r sfaith bryddiant y Brithledig ac rydyn ni'n mynd i'n rhan o'r ffordd i'r rhan o'r mynd, yn dweud â'r ffordd i'r prynsiau o ychydig yw'r llundaf o'r 2016 yn ymwyfnod yw hynny, o'r wneud i'r rhain. Mae'n diwrnod i'r hyn o'r hyn wedi cael ei wneud i'r byd yw'r hynny'n umser i'r diwrnod i'r hynny'n ymwyfnod i'r hyn, rydyn ni fel mor mewn cydnod. A maen nhw'n cael, y rydyn ni'n cefnod oherwydd o'r adael waith y mynd i'r hunndeis gweithi deall y UE, gyda'r grannig mewn cylad computers, mae amedu gweld yn hynny'n sefyllwch yn ysbryd o eich sefyllwch ym glas ynglyn â Chelynyd. Mae'r unig i Alun – mae'n rydyn ni'n cael ei fyddion lle wedi ôl y wgriw, mae'r rhyw i'r wgriw sydd wedi nhw'n gyddechrau gyda os yw iawn, iechyd sydd o'n credu behau yn rydych chi'n hefyd. arfer o f Cenchryd. Mae'n dweud y gwrdd yn y 15 ddweud. Mae'r ffroedd ydi yn Magma Cato, ond byddwn ni i'n ddigwethaf a fbyrwysolol, os yw'n ddiad Beth ynghylchau'r gwybeth i dduw i gynnwys sydd yn ysgolion gymryd. Mae'n i gweithio'r amgyl ownedd. Mae'n i'n gweithio dod yn y referendum. Mae chyrd yn ddiddordeb oedd ar gynnwys yr unhwylo yn y llwysog ac wrth gwrs y byddwn yn O ddweudau'r lleu iawn yn gwneud rhaglen gweithwyr a'r llygaidd cywysbwyllus, a'r hanferwadai ar gyfer 50 yma sefyddiadol, fel ddiddordebol Cymru'r llygaidd iawn o'r ffordd yn gweithio leidio'r effeithel tunig i gyd yn phenomenonol, fe wnaeth yw'n gilydd mewn dwylo cymaint. A gennym ni bod ar hwyl gyda'r llygoffau. Y ghemian y dechrau yn ein ffifredig cymaint, llyfr o'r Prime Minister yw Gweithran ym 45 llawn, The new prime minister steps in. She's a compromise choice. That's a very conservative thing to do. She comes in and she tries to square the circle. Lots of criticism has been heaped on Theresa May. I haven't found her easy as prime minister. I've known her for well over 40 years between university together and been friendly with each other. But in truth she tried to do the classic British thing. She tried to respond to what she saw as a sacred duty was the way she described it, given to her by the electorate to take us out, but to try to minimize the risks that she could plainly see to our economic well-being and our national security that flowed from Brexit. And look what happened to her. The longer this debate has proceeded, the more polarized the opinions have become. And interestingly, as we can see with the leaders, people who were quite cheerfully saying that a Norway-style relationship in 2016 was exactly what they aspired to, are now saying that only the purest of total separations will restore our sense of national worth. So the prime minister goes away and negotiates. She has great difficulty with her own cabinet when she finally gets a common cabinet position for key members' walk out, including Boris Johnson last summer. She eventually achieves a deal which, in my view, is remarkably unsatisfactory, but is the product of her own red lines which she'd put in in order to respond to what she perceived to be the imperatives given to her by the majority of the voting electorate. And she then has it defeated by a majority of 220 in the House of Commons in January, plunging her and the country into a second stage of this crisis. And of course, it has undermined her. My hope, I have to say, it's been going on for nine, ten months that I started speaking out and saying that the only solution was to go back and ask the public, again in the second referendum, what they really wanted. Because otherwise, we were just going to go into ever descending circles. But that has not on the whole commended itself to my colleagues. I'll come back to that in a moment. But the consequence is that, 6 January, the prime minister, who I encouraged, I said to a look, look where you are, reach out across the House and see if you can get from the Labour Party a willingness to back a referendum, in which case I think you can get a referendum through on your deal against Romaine. But she wouldn't do it. Absolutely would not touch it because that was undermining her commitment to the she had made. So instead she tried to take a battering ram with ever lessening power as her authority has been sucked away to trying to get her deal through. And as you all know, she came to within 30 votes, but there is a hard core of the ERG in my party who have become completely talibanised. But in fairness to them, their talibanisation is in itself a reflection of a body of opinion within the Conservative Party membership, which these group on the whole are very well meaning pragmatic people. I have 1300 members in my constituency of whom now clearly a significant majority feel that the national humiliation which has been engendered by the Brexit process can again only be responded to by a hard Brexit. You should see the number of emails I get saying, where's your Dunkirk spirit? To which I say, well yes, but Dunkirk was Dunkirk. Why should I self-inflect Dunkirk on my country? Thank you very much. Dunkirk was actually a terrible moment of collapse of British power, masked by Churchill's rhetoric. Why should I inflict that? But there seems to be this masochistic streak. We all pull together blood, toil, tears and sweat, and it's all there and coming out from this group, particularly within the core membership of the party. So we ended up with the Prime Minister finally running out of road, being shown the black spot by the 1922 committee. And as she's a person who puts the party at the absolute heart of her life, she's got no children, she's never happier than when going out and knocking on people's doors. I mean she still does it on Saturday afternoon, she will be out knocking on people's doors when she was Prime Minister right through the crisis or attending local constituency functions. And so finally she ran out of road because she saw that she was facing a probable meeting of Chairman of the Associations who would pass a motion of no confidence in her in mid June and that's what prompted her to go. And now we've got to pick up the pieces. You can see for yourselves what's happening with the Conservative leadership election. Apart from my good friend Rory Stewart who stood iconoclastically on a platform which was to say nobody's telling you the truth and this is what the truth is. Everybody else started essentially peddling fantasies. But the fantasies are necessary because if you don't peddle the fantasies you are going to have no traction with the majority of the Conservative electorate nor 0.25% the membership. I say conservative, the Conservative membership electorate. The people who actually vote conservative don't think this way at all. But you're going to have absolutely no traction with them so both Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson have been really singing from a very similar hym sheet, one of robustness. We will get a new deal or we will leave without a deal. This is our sacred path. This is what we will do and we will carry it out. Which begs the question firstly that the moment one of them gets into Downing Street the civil servants will be pointing out if they don't already realise it just how disastrous a no deal Brexit would be for our country. And secondly the fact that there is no majority in the House of Commons for a no deal Brexit. Although whether that majority will ever manifest itself in a way that is coherent enough to stop a no deal Brexit is another matter but I shall just come back to that in a moment. We're not helped by the fact that the Labour Party is in a state of total collapse. You can read your newspaper about the anti-Semitism allegations and some of you may have watched last another panorama programme which was devastating. But the truth is that Labour was hijacked when they elected Jeremy Corbyn as their leader. He is a astonishing individual because he's the only person I have ever come across who succeeds in having both Trotskyites and Stalinists working in the same office. But apart from that, apart from that there is no evidence that he is capable of delivering anything at all. He has spent a career making speeches to people who entirely agree with him. He's never sat in the chamber to participate in debates. I remember what he would do. He would come in, make a speech and walk out again 15 minutes later having said whatever he thought ought to be said. He's less cuddly than he looks. He's an extreme left wing socialist. And he's leading a party which has gradually and painfully come to the realisation even amongst the adulatory young who thought he was so different from anything they'd ever seen before that he is not going to be capable of delivering a thing. But meanwhile the consequence is that Labour is utterly paralysed and you can watch the fragmentation as no leadership. The whips have difficulty whipping. Normally in a political party you'll have it here. Even if you disagree with the lines taking, if you have some faith in the leader you'll go along with it for the sake of cohesion. But they can't deliver that so they're always going to have MPs peeling off or going home on Tuesday when I tried to do my amendments on prorogation. Labour MPs left between the first and second vote. They just drifted off because there's no authority to keep them there even though they appeared to be quite content with the amendments that I put forward. And I don't think he's in a position to win an election even if one were held very quickly and even with the current state of the Conservative Party. So the reality is that they cannot deliver what an opposition can normally do which is a moderating force if only by challenge because they are incapable of delivering it. And that said there are lots of Labour MPs who are in despair who are acting autonomously and independently. And one of the very few things that has given me real pleasure over the last two years is the cross-party working relationships that have been built up. And where I frequently give away great secrets but I find myself spending almost more time with Labour and indeed sometimes liberal SNP members than with some of my own colleagues but not on my own. Often with a group of other Conservative colleagues with me. And as a consequence we are now going to be in for an extraordinarily difficult three months. I think the Conservative leadership election is really done and dusted unless there's been some extraordinary misunderstanding of the dynamics of the party membership. I think the evidence is overwhelming that Boris Johnson will win and probably by a very substantial margin. Although it's just possible that the events of the last 48 hours over Kim Derek's resignation and Boris's extraordinary behaviour in respect of it might have some dent even amongst Conservative membership audiences. He will take over on the 24th of July 5pm approximately. Some people have suggested that Labour might immediately try to mount a no confidence motion in him with a view actually to preventing him virtually taking up office at all. I personally don't think that will happen because they have at least five Labour MPs who will vote probably with the government on such a motion of no confidence because they are now announced that they're leaving at the next election. Kate Hoey springs to mind and they are very keen on delivering Brexit before they go. And I suspect they won't quite know if they can trust others and I think they will deduce correctly that there are an insufficient number of Conservative MPs willing at that stage to bring down their own government to make it viable. So we will all then go away. The buckets and spades and the children are waiting and we will be gone within 24 hours leaving Boris Johnson to sort himself out at number 10 Downing Street to form his cabinet. And that's going to be quite an entertaining spectacle in itself because he has promised an awful lot to a very large number of people. And somehow he's going to have to reconcile those promises with forming a balanced cabinet as he's announced that all the current ex-remainer cabinet ministers with the possible exception of those like Amber Rudd who seem to have signed a new pledge of loyalty to No Deal will all be excluded. It is going to be a very radical turnaround indeed. He's then going to have a month to negotiate with the EU, which is not easy as you know to negotiate with the EU Commission in August unless you run around the beaches of the south of France. So I don't quite know how that's going to be achieved. He is then going to find himself in early September coming back to what is, I'm afraid, will be a growing political crisis. Now how's it going to play out and I will try to explain to you what I think the dynamics are. Firstly within the Labour Party and I'll touch on this at first. I think it is quite possible that by the time we get to late September the Labour Party will shift at the party conference to a remain position. So not only should we have a negotiated deal, you know that position has been entirely opaque. Any deal that we do doesn't need a referendum but any deal the government does need a referendum and no deal needs a referendum. Jeremy Corbyn doesn't really believe any of that. I think if he's going to survive he is probably going to be forced to accept a referendum in all circumstances. But whether that's going to make any significant difference for Labour as long as he remains leader I think is very questionable. Because I think his authority and credibility is completely shot. But whether Labour are able to get rid of him and replace him with somebody who does have credibility, whether it's a Hillary Ben or an Yvette Cooper or a Keir Starmer I simply don't know. But I do think that by early October Labour may be in a more coherent place at least about remaining in the EU, campaigning to remain in the EU and wanting a referendum as a central pillar of their policy. The last opinion polls show that over 80% of their supporters want to stay in the EU and want a referendum. It's an extraordinary situation where the leader of the party doesn't want any of those things. On the Conservative Party you can see for yourselves that the major problem is that a large number of my colleagues who are very sensible, good people are running scared of their associations. We have all, meaning included, been subject to special general meetings, to attempts by Mr Aaron Banks to ferment our removal. In my case it's probably going to be successful, but not yet anyway, a bit longer to go. And also other MPs have been targeted, including those who've just been loyally following the party line. David Gork, as Lord Chancellor, should be the subject of a determined effort to get rid of him in his constituency which took place last week and which he defeated. It just shows the extent of the problem. But most of my colleagues, as a consequence of that, just want to keep a low profile. They just want the problem somehow to go away. That having been said there is a significant number of Conservative MPs. 40 is a figure that's sometimes put forward who think that a no-deal Brexit is a completely unacceptable outcome. And I think, and that's the view of my colleagues who I work with, and don't necessarily share all my views, I'll come to that. That if it comes close to the crunch then we will see again what we saw in April when we were running up against the wire of leaving on April 12th, which is a sufficient number of Conservative MPs prepared to defy the whip in order to do something to stop no-deal. Beyond that, though, opinions start to diverge. You have a group which includes in truth five current members of the Cabinet who in an ideal world would like firstly to ensure that no-deal Brexit doesn't happen, but secondly would like to use the failure of a no-deal Brexit to finally bring reason to the Conservative Party and across the House and deliver some sort of deal which I suspect is going to look very similar to what the Prime Minister negotiated. They think that that will be achievable because the fear of the continuing deterioration in the Conservative Party's position vis-à-vis the Brexit Party may finally bring rationality to some members of the ERG who will be willing to support this. And that coupled with about 27 Labour MPs who want to leave the EU but don't want a no-deal Brexit will be sufficient to get a deal across the line. I don't know whether that is possible or not. I mean I'm speaking for myself as you'll appreciate. As I'm a remainder I would like to try to arrange for us to remain in the EU and the only mechanism for doing that is a referendum. So that's where I would like to end up, I campaign as part of the People's Vote campaign. But I do recognise that lassitude, anxiety and concern about the future and the polarisation of politics in the UK may bring people to the conclusion that they have to go along with it. But I must say that on its own at the moment I don't see it as working unless for example there were a significant change to the Northern Ireland backstop. Because these things have become talismanic and I just don't see that without that change you're ever going to get enough ERG members willing to support it. So even if you get the 27 Labour MPs there will still be 40, 50 or 60 members of the ERG who will rebel. It would need some significant shift on the backstop, time limiting it or something else in order to bring about that change. Which case we would presumably leave the EU into what remains of the transition period. My anxiety obviously then is that we will have no agreement internally in the UK as to what the future relationship should be. And therefore I apprehend we're going to have another two to three years of disordered politics perhaps longer. So I've never seen this as a satisfactory solution. The alternative is that confronted with the prospect of a no deal Brexit enough of my Conservative colleagues are prepared to contemplate a referendum and I think that's possible. But that coupled with a Labour clear insistence on the referendum could tip the balance and lead to a referendum being the preferred outcome of the House of Commons. Although how Boris Johnson can ever then deliver that is much harder to tell. And of course that then calls into question whether a Boris Johnson administration can survive such a process. And if he doesn't survive that process well then the risk is that we could end up toppling him on a no confidence motion and that could precipitate a general election which oddly enough neither or perhaps not surprisingly enough neither the Conservatives nor the Labour Party want at all because it looks as if it could be apocalyptic for both main parties. And I think you're going to see over September and October a political minuet unfolding at Westminster between trying to pass some primary legislation against the Government's wishes to prevent the Prime Minister taking us out with no deal and to try to force a Prime Minister to get an extension but you must understand that Parliament constitutionally cannot order a Prime Minister to revoke because it needs a money resolution and that can only be done with ministerial agreement. That's how our constitution operates since 1713 at least. Money resolutions belong wholly in the province of ministers and not of the House of Commons itself. It's something to do with the English Civil War as you may recollect when we started in England governing without the government. It wasn't very successful enterprise and I don't know how it doesn't commend itself to me very much. So we can't do that. We're limited in what we can do. So that may be one way forward. The other way as I say is that the crisis simply deepens to the point where you end up with a no confidence motion and people are prepared to take the risk of bringing down Boris Johnson's Government which might happen although then I think there might be some efforts at trying to set up some form of government of national unity in the 14 days thereafter but the arithmetic, it's not easy to see how you're going to do that unless Labour changed radically in the period over the summer and probably get a new leader. Because I don't see anybody accepting Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister of the National Unity Government. The two don't quite go together. Meanwhile economically the UK is suffering as a result of these uncertainties and I don't need to tell you this as an audience because you're the direct beneficiaries with a trillion pounds of assets floating over to Dublin plus Citibank and all sorts of other institutions. Although I think it can sometimes be, one must like exaggerate its overall dent on the UK's London's position as a financial centre but it's not good news. The manufacturing sector are also suffering very much. So this is a very difficult cocktail of problems but I wouldn't want to stop talking on a negative note because I happen to remain a perennial optimist. I'm not quite sure why and there have been moments in the last three or four weeks when I've begun to think my optimism is misplaced. But the Great British Ship of State can list a lot and take off mortar but it has good self-writing mechanisms. And I just begin to see one glimmer of hope which is that some of the discussion has now become so crazy that I think people are beginning to pick up that we're going mad. I mean the bit about prorogation of Parliament is in the absolutely crazy category and the fact that Boris Johnson wasn't even able to say that he wouldn't contemplate such a thing. I was interested to note that even Michael Howard who has a reputation as a very hard Brexiter came out yesterday saying that this was a completely idiotic idea. So just perhaps the first glimmer of light is beginning to creep in within my own party of the damage we're doing to ourselves and our standing and our reputation. And I think that as the Brexit deadline approaches we may see more reasonableness grow and a greater determination to try to put country before rather narrower interests. And I also sense it with Labour and if we can get that mood music together then I think we may be successful. I feel a bit apologetic coming over here because on the face of it I think we've got quite a lot to apologise about. You're our nearest neighbour and on the face of it we are causing you a lot of disturbance of a kind that good neighbours should try to avoid. I can only say to you that looking at the course of Irish history you have to accept that perhaps British stroke English history has similar moments of catharsis and at least at the moment we're not actually killing each other in the streets so we should look on the bright side of what's going on. If we keep a sense of humour I am fairly confident we will get through it satisfactorily. Thank you very much.