 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We are getting into crunch time of the NHL season. The futures market is heating up There's some pretty tight race since a couple divisions Stanley cup odds pretty evenly distributed as well And of course, it's still pretty competitive race for the hard trophies We're gonna break down some NHL futures today by talking to Tom Vecchio and then breaking down his leans on tonight's games Over a Fandall sportsbook. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Joined here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio check him out on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one find his work at Fandall research Check out the daily ISO once it's back post all-star break as well. Tom. Happy Tuesday to you. How are you doing today? I'm doing good. Yeah big weekend of hockey. We saw a couple outdoor games, which were great We are quickly approaching the trade deadline trade at deadline in just a couple of weeks It is like you said crunch time for the NHL. I think we are in for a very exciting end to the season How does the NHL trade deadline compared to the NBA? So you can get pretty hectic is the NHL pretty similar in that regard or no? There's gonna be like a lot of depth pieces that are traded and they're probably gonna be overpaid for as we see Most years where it's like why why is this player this third-liner being traded for a first-round pick? That doesn't make sense, but a team is going all in then they resign them for too much money like it usual Nonsense is gonna happen. There's probably gonna be no big names move though Okay, so it's good to know a couple weeks down the line before the NHL trade deadline Hopefully not gonna impact things too much from a betting perspective We're gonna break down the futures market with Tom and as mentioned talked through some games for tonight as well But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We've got shows every weekday right here on the covering the spread of podcast We're including four shows this week with no show on Monday tomorrow We're talking NBA futures coming out of the all-star break with Ryan Williams getting his read on those a lot of good stuff Here to come on the show throughout this week and other weeks So search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify and check us out on the fan dual YouTube page and on fan dual TV plus Tom let's begin things here by talking about the futures market because right now in the Stanley Cup odds There are 11 teams with odds at 11 to 14 to 1 or shorter. Nobody is shorter than a plus a 50 So a lot of teams bunch together Is this just due to the the high variance nature of the Stanley Cup playoffs or is there something else keeping everyone bunched together at this point Well, you know pre deadline Teams have one view or in the markets or have one view of teams And then if they make some acquisition or sure up some of the question marks that they have that will obviously change things like my Perspective looking at from like a very plain view is that I can make a case Against all of these teams right we can make a case for these teams. Obviously, that's why they're here But we also make a case for against all of them, you know, for example the avalanche Their gold tending and defense has not been good this year They can outscore anyone but their defense and specifically their gold tending with Alexander Georgiev Which they're trying to improve at gold tending at the deadline Potentially Mark Andre Fleury has not been good, you know, we look at someone like Boston where they got off to a super hot Star and then their depth pieces are just not scored So posh knock and March on aren't scoring well Then they aren't winning and when we get to the Winnipeg jets their goal Connor Helibach is probably in the Vesna, which is goalie the year and they're one of if not the best defensive team in the entire league Their offense is horrible. So like we can go through every single team and find great positives But also some really glaring negatives. So if we combine that with just hey it's hockey weird things can happen in the playoffs I think that's why we're in a spot where it's like there's no actual clear favorite this year compared to where we were last year So at this point, there's really no set in stone team The team that I talked about at times in the earlier in the portion season and before the year started which is the Dallas stars and They are sitting putting things together finally their goalie Jay Gottinger is back. He's healthy when he was out They were winning games, but it was super sloppy So it's like they're keeping pace and points, but they don't look good and now he's back They're like kind of finally rounding into form So I really do like the stars because they basically check every box that you want It's just they have to put it all together for a large sample size now These stars 10 to 1 right now at Fan Duel Sportsbook Do you think it's a pretty fair number and that is that your favorite bed on the board right now? It probably is I think it's a super fair number because they're in the same division as the abs and the jets So when we're looking at three teams that are all within this top portion of 14 to 1 or shorter They're gonna have to fight through two of them Yeah, just to get to the couple or you know two of them to get to the conference fun So it's not gonna be an easy path, but that number is accurate. So let's talk about that central division race It's pretty close right now and especially after last night's games things even a bit closer right now The stars are plus 120 to win the central the jets are plus 160 avalanche or plus 280 It's a tough division The stars in the best position as of right now any read for you on this division as far as who wins it I think the stars end up winning it. I think this it'll finish how it is now stars abs jets There's no value anywhere. The only value you would get is if the abs drop a game or two and you can get them at Five or six to one. Mm-hmm. That's the only spot that I would jump in but as of now It's super tight like I said the jets have a couple games in hand and there are a few points behind So you'd like to say okay? They have the defense to get it done But when push comes to shove like they are not scoring at a high rate in order to keep up with the abs I keep up with stars who have great offense is so it's kind of just a wait and see and I think the best spot is I don't know if you can shop around but sometimes you can get exact finishing orders. Hmm some books offer What a straight outcomes or whatever the terminology these that I think is could be very very interesting as the season comes to close If you can find those markets, but from a straight prediction, I think it's just there's no value left Okay, so Tom thinks the stars get it done but not enough value there to bet them at plus 120s and sands But keep an eye on the avalanche in case they do lengthen in the coming weeks Let's talk about one awards market as well focusing on the heart trophy right here The MVP award for the NHL Nathan McKinnon right now is plus 160 But there are a lot of guys in contention Nikita Kutcher off is plus 270 Conor David plus 340 Austin Matthews plus 440 So a competitive racing if McKinnon is the clear favorite right now any value for you in this market Tom That is with Austin Matthews and I have spoken highly about Nathan McKinnon when he was 10 to 1 to win this award back when we did a pod I think in mid December. Yeah, I'm personally very hot in Nathan McKinnon. I Have a position on him. However Matthews after this goal outburst He's had over the past few games is now on pace to score 74 goals Which hasn't been done. No one has hit 70 goals since 1991 Now the issue is And if you scroll down just a little bit, you'll see the rocker a shard where Matthews is I think minus 850 to win the rocker A short rocket Richard lead the league in goals. He's going to win that he's a 10 goal lead So he's on pace to score 74 goals No one has had more than 65 since Ovechkin in I think was the 2008 2007 2008 season he can hit 70 goals realistically. The problem is he's not gonna have as many points sure as we see with McKinnon McDavid or crude trouble all these players gonna finish I'm gonna say within five to eight points of each other hundred twenty five hundred thirty whatever this So the question becomes is what do we or I should say the voters Determined to be like MVP worthy is it putting up a hundred twenty points Which players have done over the past few years or is it doing something that no one has done in 30 years? That's what it comes down to we're splitting here say because Matthews is not gonna have a hundred thirty points that he's just not going to but 74 goals which he's on pace for is unbelievable so I think there's a bit of value with Matthews to win the heart. I think it is diminishing every day You can't take it less than four of one Maybe three and a half to one but at a certain point if he's neck neck with McDavid I'm gonna side with McDavid ten times out of ten just because of what he does So you have this McKinnon position already in and are you considering Matthews as a hedge against that position at plus 440 or Do you want to just kind of let your your good hand ride right now? I really want to take Matthews if he drops to five to one Yeah, I don't think that's gonna happen So I just I like missed the boat on an essentially where you know He had hat tricks and back-to-back games on Thursday and Saturday and if you jumped in on Friday afternoon for you this other hat trick maybe got him at five and a half to one but I Maybe you chop around and find a better number. He's four and a half. Maybe five somewhere else But I'm sticking with McKinnon at ten to one It's gonna be super tight to end the season and you know Maybe this is just spot where I just bet Matthews to have like to gold on a nightly basis just to try and Position or whatever might be right and maybe you get both You never know you could because seems like the goals are pretty good about with him regardless Okay, so Tom is eyeing Austin Matthews plus 440 to win the hard trophy right now over at van duels sportsbook Let's shift focus now Tom and talk about some games across tonight seven games slate in the NHL Let's begin things with some money lines and totals where you're seeing value right now there at van duels sports Two traditional markets starting off with the Penguins Islanders under under five and a half. I believe it's still a plus 100 the They are fighting forward the exact same thing which is the second wild card spot as of now The Penguins are surprisingly extremely strong on defense this year They are horrible on offense where you see a team that's in the top five the league for the fewest goals allowed Why are they so far behind in in the standings? Well, their offense just isn't there The aisles are coming off this loss You know kind of devastating loss the other day in the outdoor game against the Rangers where they're up four to one They end up losing six to five and over time Despite all that their defense has improved since Patrick Watson go over as head coach They are trending in the right direction one game is one game It is what it is, but they're actually improving and it may not seem that way, but they actually are So considering the the history that these two teams having considering that this game is extremely important for both teams coming off Of losses, we are not going to see an open back and forth game I fully expect this to be one of the best games the night because it should be a playoff Atmosphere two to one final maybe three to one final It's not going to be super exciting from a scoring perspective, but it should have that intensity so when we look at a team that is Effectively great on defense like the pens and then a team that's actually trending in the right direction like the aisles We're actually set up for a really low scoring game combined with the fact that the pens lost Jake Gensel They're second best goal score behind Cindy Crosby. He's out for multiple weeks So we have a team that's already bad on offense and now that's decreased even further the player being out The total is five and a half right now even money on the under it's a pretty low total But does that intensity factor is that what allows you to take the under despite the fact? It's sitting at five and a half right now Yeah, like maybe if you want to buy it up and get the this flat six and just under six so you can get a push That's fine. If you're willing to lay that extra juice I don't mind that in certain circumstances. I think we're getting to the point in the season where I'm willing to go to Oh, it's a it's a five I'll push it to six and I'll get the minus one forty five juice Whatever might be just because I'm I'll play a little bit safer. Okay, so I I think we're actually a point in the season where we actually can really just trust teams to do things in a rational manner and Focusing on teams that need to win focusing on teams that need to be playing solid defense. That's where we should be Deriving the best approach if that makes sense like yesterday that the sneakers and the ducks play like that's not a game You should be focusing it on too much. Okay, so Tom likes the under for the Islanders and penguins under five and a half plus 100 right now you mentioned there was one other traditional market bet you liked as well Which one was that that's gonna be the Dow stars money line at plus one twenty six They played yesterday at Boston. They played a great game They lost in the ninth round of the shootout the Rangers are writing now a Seven-game winning streak and as I mentioned, they you know this big come from behind emotional win against the The Islanders in the outdoor game on Sunday. This is just like a letdown spot for the Rangers also I View hockey as much as I the same way I do baseball There's just so much variance where teams just don't win nine ten games in a row Very often and as I mentioned the stars are an awesome team, right? We're putting all the piece together. They have incredible depth They probably the best forward group in the entire league their defense getting healthy Like I said, Jay Godinger is back where they're placed in a today after yesterday's yet to be seen But they're super solid team and I'm not sure we should be seeing Igor Shisterkin and net for the Rangers Because he played past your games It should be Jonathan quick who's been good but not great for the Rangers this season They also could be missing Ryan Lindgren with their top defenders So we add all these things together and it's like hey This is actually a toss-up game just because both these teams are really good I'm just gonna take the plus money with the team coming off a loss and banking on a little bit of variance But your Rangers Phantom so the value lies values values say values value. I'm proud of you You know not rooting for the for the laundry right? This is this is about we have two good teams And if we are expecting eventually the Rangers to regress off this gold scoring rate Which has been unusually high on a seven game winning streak. That's going to a risk I'm not their defense has been okay as of late like they're giving up a ton of goals And they have the score and to come back and have these come from behind wins But that's not obviously a good like process wise Way to be going about things when you know, I said the stars. They're an awesome team Yeah, okay, so Tom likes the stars plus 126 and this is a bet against fair teams So hopefully that made makes a little bit more weighty as well. What about player props? I think it's standing out to you there tonight. Yeah, there's only two at least as of now, too I'll have an article about article up on fandal research going through a bit more, but with the Winnipeg Jets Kyle Connor to score a goal at plus 135 The Jets had I'm gonna say a bit of a disappointing game yesterday. They were up They lose to a team with the flames that are objectively worse Kyle Connor is a primary shooter for them First forward line first power play always putting up goals He was actually I don't want to say on pace But he was almost neck-and-neck with Matthews to start the season He then had a knee injury the very beginning of December missed six weeks eight weeks whatever was but he's an elite goal scorer and High volume shooter hasn't scored in a few few games the wild had no pun intended a wild game yesterday Which would they won 10 to 7? After scoring six goals in five minutes and 54 seconds, I think it was to start the third period It's three players had a hat-trick in that game, which was the first time since 92 I believe they were down five to three coming into the third and they won that game 10 to 7 so an absolutely insane game from the wild and Like I said, the Jets are a great defensive team But their offense has been slacking and given the lack of defense from the wild not just yesterday But overall Connor really should be shooting at a high volume And he's plus 145 right now for any time goal at fan dual sports for for the wild and the Jets 10 to 7 is nuts Yes, I am in theory a wild fan, you know, but Clearly, I'm not keeping that close tabs got Daytona's a higher priority. Daytona was on yesterday I'm not surprised you weren't keeping track with the wild Canuck skating yesterday, especially in the year 2023-2024 I'm not keeping super close tabs and all that that focus is dedicated more towards the wolves for me is my like tangential fandom Okay, any other player props you like besides the Connor goal Yeah, one other would be on the Los Angeles Kings last game on the slate the Victor Arbetson for a goal The Kings have a slate high 3.87 implied goal total as you can see that they are pretty juicy minus 245 home favorites Victor Arbetson This will be his fourth game of the season. He started the year on long-term IR. He missed a ton of games Obviously, this is fourth game of the season Looking back at his career. He is traditionally a 20 to 30 goal scorer very solid news with Nashville High volume shooter blue jacks are terrible on defense. He's shot the puck well in his first few games He does not have a goal in his first three games with five three and four shots on goal Which is you're saying oh, it's only three games He's you know averaging three and a half or so shots on goal per game. That's actually where he should be You're looking back at his historical track record. So I like the fact that they're at home I like the fact that we get a big number on a traditionally very strong goal score and a slate high 3.87 implied goal total is Something that we should be tacking every day So even if you this was he hasn't scored a few games wasn't his fourth game of the season all these things like we should Be looking at him Adrian Kenpey Trevor Moore some of these players are going to be scoring against the blue jackets tonight Now at Arbetson as you mentioned coming out the injury He's played three games since he returned the shot volume has been good time on ice 15 minutes 18 minutes 16 minutes Is that enough for you to feel pretty good about the volume like no ramp up concerns with him? Oh, absolutely not is a player that's gonna be on the top six and seeing power play time You know whether I have to check the updated lines if they shifted things around but 18 minutes 16 minutes That's where he should be so that is absolutely on point high volume. It's the blue jackets I'm not worried about if it's Elvis Merslaken's a net whoever it is. It doesn't matter. They're terrible I'll be taking a high-volume shooter anytime going against the blue Jack to the sharks any of these teams Okay, so Tom's two player props are Kyle Conner to score a goal for the Wildem Jets plus 145 And then Victor Arbetson to score that is plus 185 as well That is Tom Vecchio make sure you check him out on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one Fun his work as mentioned at Fandall research and check out the daily iso once that's back from the NBA all-star break as well Tom have a fantastic day. I'm looking forward to talking to you again soon. Thanks for having me Alrighty big. Thank you to Tom as always looking forward to getting him back on the show here again in the very near future Gonna go back through recommendations from last week here on the show in just one second But first get buckets with your first bet on Fandall America's number one sports book because right now new customers get $150 in bonus bets than any winning $5 bet That's 150 bucks if your bet wins bet on all your favorite NBA players and teams with quick bets live same-game parlance exclusive props and more Just visit the Fandall comm app and shoot your shot Fandall official sportsbook partner of the NBA must be 21 plus in present and select states first online real money wager Only $10 first deposit required bonus issued is now with trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after receipts see terms at sports book Fandall comm Fandall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC gambling problem Call 1 a hundred gambler or as a fandall comm slash rg Colorado Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio Pennsylvania Illinois Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia and Vermont call 100 next step or text next step to 53342 in Arizona 188-789 7777 over the ccpg.org slash chat Connecticut 1 809 with it in Indiana 105 2 2 4700 visit KS gambling health.com in Kansas 1877 770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 100 gambler net in West, Virginia 105 2 2 4700 in Wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call a hundred three two seven fifty fifty for 247 support of Massachusetts or call 1877 open y or text open y in New York Let's go back through recommendations here from last week on the show beginning with me at Daytona Recommend a couple of stuff a couple things on a Friday now This is before the races were postponed for the Exfinity series in the cup series so because they're postponed more than 24 hours these bets for refund if you bet them at Fandall so keep that in mind that they would have been Voided if you'd bet them then the bets are recommended for transparency purpose were more in Truex jr. 23 to 1 2x ok race got caught up in a wreck pretty late. I didn't do a whole lot there, but Still thought it was good at the time and then in Exfinity series I had Daniel Suarez 16 to 1 and Ryan C 50 to 1 Suarez got caught up in a very early crash See got caught up in one later So 0 for 3 on those in the truck series on Friday This these actually did stand this one is real Tyler anchorman 22 to 1 is my loan recommendation for the truck series at Daytona anchor in a pretty good truck again as always Ran up front for most of the night and she got caught up in a wreck not in his own doing once again That's how things have always gone to the anchorman pack tracks. I can guarantee you I'll probably be back on him again this week in Atlanta. It's kind of how things go So Tyler anchorman 22 to 1 did not win there For the EPL we had Austin Cass on to talk about EPL match week 25 check out Austin on Twitter at Austin Cass Find his work at Fandall research where he is a senior editor Austin had Phil Foden to score assistant plus 105 for man city versus Chelsea had to make sure that Foden was in the starting lineup Before betting this one and he was this one did stand Foden though did not score or assist a 1-1 tie But are a draw between man city and Chelsea so no win there other two bets for Austin were on Monday That was the Everton money line at minus 140 and Everton over one half goals at minus 104 The XG numbers actually said that Everton played pretty well in this game They outscored Crystal Palace by a full goal in terms of XG, but it was a 1-1 draw So no win for either the one and a half over or the money line on Everton We'll get awesome back on the show later on this week to talk EPL match week 26 Finally, we had Tom Vecchio on earlier on this week talked about the NBA all-star game at festivities in a three-point contest He had Donovan Mitchell plus 950 to win that one along with Mitchell over 19 and a half points in round one at minus 130 And that first bet did hit because Mitchell scored 21 points around one But that was not enough to advance to the second round but regardless hey that that wins So hopefully a bit of a hedge there and a bit of a cushion. I guess I should say With the plus 950 on Mitchell then Tom also had Tyrese Halliburton all-star game MVP at 16-1 and Shay Gilgis SGA all-star game MVP at 14-1 couldn't get by on either of those. I believe it was Damia Lillard Let's just check that quick because I actually forgot to check this. Yeah Damia Lillard MVP and winning the three-point contest. So Couldn't quite get over Dame there with Halliburton and SGA but fun discussion regardless and hopefully a good weekend I know that the Twitter sentiment around the NBA all-star festivities is not great But hopefully it was fun for you individually watching all those events That's all that we have here for today on covering the spread as mentioned Ryan Williams is with us tomorrow talking NBA futures coming out of the all-star break That'll be up tomorrow morning on the cover in the spread podcast feed along with the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus if you got any questions for me I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis You can check me out in threads at Jim dots on this and find Fandall research on Twitter at Fandall research Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across Tuesday And we'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some of the a this has been covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network