 and The morning market kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien We're trying to find McQueen videos. Good afternoon everybody. Oh We got to play nice everyone's watching. Did you say hello? Tell them what you do. Do we go ice skating? Oh I think we did. I think we went ice skating today folks for the first time Hey, are we gonna make it through a half hour today? What do you think? Hey? Hey, we got to be nice, okay? No We're gonna see if we can find a video as we break down some of the action This is filler time until the chairman appears at 2 30. Which one you're gonna have to find it I thought we were gonna do the show together. Well, you watch some videos No, go ahead. Now you can swipe right there. We're swiping YouTube videos here folks Google which one? So let's talk about what just happened in yields, man Some of the cherry-pick numbers that they're talking about over on the Bloomberg live feed over here the two-year yield 20 basis points lower you talk about lower yield. Okay, their market is pricing in 130 basis points of cuts in 2024 up from 1.1 percent before the FOM MC statement I just stated that the tenure is now at 4.1 percent. We're 4.09 as I calculated that median projection So they have inflation ticking down. They have unemployment remaining little unchanged Indicating Fed officials growing confidence. They can cool price gains without the big job losses for unemployment Yeah, acknowledges the inflation has eased over the past year, but remains elevated strong pace of economic growth What are we gonna watch Tommy? So the dot pot of rate projections shows a wide range of estimates of how much the fish should cut next year Median number is 75 basis points Eight anticipate fewer reductions five expect deeper cuts That's a number with a lot of variants. We talk about variants sometimes on the program That's a number with a lot of variants when you have eight under you five above you you pick a median number We're watching spider-man just like on your shirt. We got spider-man We got lightning McQueen folks and yeah, we were playing hockey and I'm gonna get some hockey pitchers up We were ice skating to be fair. We were public skating But the Tampa TGH Yeah, TGH ice plex in Brandon if you're looking for great public skating somewhere around the Tampa Brandon area Cool part about that is they have tons of hockey skates. They rent public skating today before school gets out We had a good time. We're back for the Fed day and yeah, it should be an interesting one So a lot of McQueen's Tommy FOMC Votes unanimously to leave the benchmark rate unchanged. So it's a unanimous decision Yeah, huge moves. We're gonna jump around to the yields man. So there's your dot plot And so let's see I mean you can see The range we're at we're at five point four percent basically right now, right? Well, we watch drop doc And so by 2024 Only one participant thinks we're gonna be under four percent by 2025 though, basically everybody thinks we're gonna be under four percent You're gonna be somewhere around three point five percent in the median area there and by 2026 we're back to two point five to three percent and then check it out longer term Yeah, you got a couple outliers here with the longer term number interesting there, right? Three participants on the dot plot see the longer term number Stuck at three point five or higher Odds of a mark rate March rate cut above 60% ooh This might accelerate quickly if that's where the market's talking about you get the dollar next drop in a 103 36 That's gonna put a bit under gold gold trading at 2016 If you haven't checked out the gold report folks great time to do it when you get that potential for yields Pulling back dollar weakness that could put a bit into gold. We jump over to the dollar yen Dollar yen drops to 144 21 had a great discussion with our man Teddy keg stat this morning He comes on every Wednesday at 40 past the hour. Is he dancing? Is he dancing nope, he's not dancing anymore All right, let's see how some of the thanks doc some of the magnificent seven apple up more than a full percent Microsoft Not quite the same performance, but they were lower. They're actually flat right now for Microsoft shares Amazon shares catch a bid everything catches a bid Amazon up three tenths percent right now You jump over to Tesla on the heels of their recall still off 1.3 percent, but they catch a bid as well Metta shares up half a percent right now Netflix Whoo, there you go. Netflix up by 3% right now Disney up by 1% See how the banks are doing on that number JP Morgan up by four tenths percent Bank of America by 1.6 percent There's an acceleration for you. Yeah Let's just keep jumping around to the charts as we break this down because it's moving pretty quickly Let's back that out Let's put it on a 15 minute and that's quite a move. Let's take a look at this on the Daily man We're blowing through the 50% number on this entire pullback from 116 18 I mean just remember how quickly we went from 117 essentially down to 105 Just like that. We're gonna be pushing 112 the 618 is 112 11 approximately and maybe that's an area Maybe 1 13 area another point and a half higher Okay, you play that game. Maybe a point and a half higher 113 ish somewhere in that area kind of where you chopped around for the better part of June that area that you're trading into at the end of May Maybe that's where you find your first area of resistance But if things come at you that quick man, you know, we only have what one meeting before March, right? Well, I pulled this up this morning. Here we go We sure do you got a January meeting and then you got March. So if they're gonna come with it They're gonna indicate. Maybe it's a March meeting Gonna be interesting to see what the chairman has to say Is he gonna like how the market interpreting is interpreting their words as of 230 or is he gonna push back? Is the market getting a little bit ahead of itself? I don't know. We'll see that's your tenure. Let's jump over to the two year Look at that move man 102 16 we're up by 12 takes huge move for such a short duration Five year breaks above those recent highs that we had just a few days ago as well with the S&Ps up by 30 NASDAQ 100 up by 610s percent right now Yeah, it's even like it's setting up as a pretty dovish statement and we'll see if chairman Powell follows through though Just going through some of the analysis Yeah, we've seen the first move get faded before but I don't think so the market likes the fact that the Fed's talking about 75 basis points of cuts next year because remember they're gonna remain Pessimistic on that number. They're not gonna tell the market that they're gonna get ahead of the market, right? They're never gonna say the market right now where they still have work to do We're gonna cut more than you guys even think don't worry about it You guys can ease up No, the point of all this restrictive fiscal policy is to tighten up the markets the moment they tell you that that's over That's gonna undo much of what they've done So it makes sense that they would be on the light side and if they're saying 75 is their call Maybe they're willing to go a full point a point in a quarter next year is maybe when the market is thinking All right We're gonna get all-time highs man. What do we got? We got 90 points In the NASDAQ 100. No, yes 90 points in the NASDAQ 100 We got less than 80 in the S&Ps one more segment before the chairman speaks come on back currencies commodities and bond markets are as important As ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe Which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Keg stats Tiger forex report Teddy Keg stat breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures Forex stocks and options Teddy releases his weekly tiger forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs Including the dollar index the euro dollar pound dollar dollar Swiss dollar yen as well as many more And he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30 year t-bonds as they both influence forex markets Tremendously when you sign up for the tiger forex report You also gain instant access to Teddy 60 minute webinar archive. He just hosted forex strategies and fundamentals What is behind the tiger forex report for all the details and to start your 30-day tiger forex report subscription today? Visit the front page of TFNN comm TFNN educating investors the gold report as A precious metal gold is still king It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market The US futures market and the Shanghai gold exchange The gold report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU HUI GDX the dollar bonds the South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations The gold report New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN dot-com Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter market insights your key to successful active trading Tom O'Brien renowned for his expertise in the financial markets has designed Market insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades Tom publishes his daily market insights newsletter every market day before the market open along with updates When warranted stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox Whether you're a season trader or just starting out market insights provides the edge You need to navigate the markets with confidence ready to join the ranks of successful traders head over to TFNN Dot-com and subscribe to market insights today Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results market insights comes with a 30-day money back guarantee for all new Subscribers so you have nothing to risk don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game Head over to TFNN dot-com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter market insights firsthand TFNN educating investors Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 Welcome back folks Tom O'Brien Tommy O'Brien. Let's see Let's see if we can get it going for you Tommy. Ah, it's not letting you work, buddy You know what is amazing and I've talked about it before is that on YouTube The thumbnails of the best thumbnails around are the ones that are sponsored contact getting you to click off the site to some different URL Which throws a wrench in things to put it lightly So we get the markets continuing higher man S&Ps up by 31 Tommy. We got green on the board. Check it out You gotta tell them they're watching you. Hey, tell them what we did. Did we did we go skating today Tommy? Yeah, we sure did folks. Let's show them a few pictures of us skating before we get off. Okay This is a good one How are we gonna do this? There we go. All right perfect First of all spoke folks. You got to see this prior And I know it's fed day. We're coming back with the chairman live in 10 minutes folks That's not even the good one. Let's get the one with your eyes open, right? Yeah, we were spider-man this morning That's his big brother's costume. He got 11 Tommy. Are you spider-man? Hey, we're showing everybody right here your picture Hey, mister, right here. You see the picture. Tell them Yeah, you were spider-man this morning. You were What were you doing? Should we show him skating Tommy? Oh I think we should because this was his first time skating. He's got his spider-man jersey on So pretty cool place. We'll give him a free plug for short. It's actually where the lightning practice as well in Brandon Occasionally and you see the type of skates they have for kids for rental. Not bad some nice decent hockey skates on there. Oh What are you doing, mister? There we are. He's got his spider-man helmet on safety first We were out on the the ice a little bit there. Were you skating good? Oh, you were skating with daddy, weren't you? And there he was finishing up the day So it was a great time. Are you tired from a big day Tommy? Hey Yeah, well, we're gonna wait until after the show so we can hear you We'll wait till afterwards. We'll try to get them out of that one first What spider-man doing tell them they can't see they can't see did you say hello to everybody hey, hello everybody No, you haven't said hello yet. That's okay. They're watching you Yeah, they're getting ready for chairman Powell to talk at 230 He's gonna be live. Are we gonna listen to the chairman's press conference right here live on Tiger TV? Think we should do that Well, I'm here folks. Don't forget about tiger dollars Don't forget about a man Tim ward the science of market tops Tim's coming up tomorrow Basil Chapman's got a webinar a week from today for the opening call subscribers. I encourage you to check out the gold report gold Accelerating higher yet again. It would make sense That if we do have yields dropping we have dollar weakness that could put a bid in commodities You're seeing gold move to the upside today on that relationship in a big way You got gold contract up twenty seven dollars now two thousand and twenty still well off that spike high We got of two thousand one hundred and fifty two dollars just last Sunday about eight days ago But nonetheless your gold moving higher if you're gonna sign up for any of those Tim Ward tomorrow night the science of market tops Basil Chapman the opening call week from today the gold report first thing you do is folks go to the front page of TFNN Check out that tiger dollar sale Wow. I had my mug today, too. I had it up there. I was drinking a latte out of it And you get a TFNN Tiger mug. They got a tiger mug. Tell me wow We grow No, we're not feeling it today. Okay, that's all right. He had a big morning First time on skates. I tell you it's not easy folks and my back is paying for it a little bit But it was the best time ever All right, let's see how the VIX is doing as the market is only gonna go up in the future. I kid VIX 12 23 Yesterday we hit 11 81 And interesting we actually get a little bit of a spike there. I mean 12 That's a minute chart just to see the reaction After the press conference comes out at about 2 o'clock. We're sitting at 12 and change Yeah, well what gets in the way of this market between making all-time highs man Well, the chairman could get in the way in about seven minutes But I don't know if he's gonna get in the way after that dot plot I mean breaking that down one step further and where were we? Yeah, the two-year yield just dropped 20 basis points to 4.53 percent They slashed their projections for PC inflation to 2.8 this year and core PC E to 3.2 That's their preferred inflation gauge. They're at five and a quarter percent. They think their preferred inflation gauge is 2.8 to 3.2 percent depending on headliner core Bloomberg economics Bloomberg economics chief US economist Anna Wong I agree with this to some degree and you know We were talking about Kevin Hicks was talking about it many people saying, you know Maybe they come a little hawkish right now saying the market might be getting ahead of itself when you add up the dot plots And you add up their projections. They really didn't push back The rate hold was widely expected But the question was what extent the Fed would acknowledge the end of the tightening cycle We now have our answer the updated dot plot and tweaks to the policy statement both quite dovish or a strong indication That the tightening cycle is over our baseline is for the Fed to begin cutting rates in March 2024 Pop the bubbly folks pop the champagne. I mean if they wanted to in March They had to get ahead of it this meeting because they only have January So they wouldn't want to surprise the market in January with only one meeting Maybe you give an indication January you give a greater indication and by March You end up Making that potential cut and that March meeting when's that March meeting tell me my birthday March 20th line it up, baby My birthday I Can't forget that one right S&P's trading higher by 35 points right now Nasdaq 100 up by 133 we jump over to crude Yeah, even crude catches a bid you got a weaker dollar You're gonna get more expensive commodities crude 69 56 right now priced in US dollars gold contract continuing to climb 2021 right now and we jump to the all-important notes and bonds boy, and it's not stopping right It is not The tenure up more than a full point the third year up a point and a half the five-year up 25 ticks All right, let's pull up the the yield curve as we wrap this up a bit As the chairman begins talking in four and a half minutes right at 230 we'll air that live coming up right here on Tiger TV and Yeah, look at the mammoth moves a one-year down 14 basis points to five percent Basically a two-year down 20 basis points the three-year 20 basis points the five-year down 18 basis points the 10 year down 14 and even the 30 year down eight to nine basis points Interesting along the curve especially out the two-year the five-year the projections from where we go All right folks stay tuned, so we'll be coming back. That was a quick one Tommy. We're only doing a half hour today We're gonna say good-bye to everybody you say bye They're gonna get right Bye everybody. Oh We're a little tired today. That's okay. I know we had a big morning Okay, we'll get it for you. We had a big morning. We were on the ice at 11 o'clock folks till 12 15 S&Ps I was stalling a bit. We're at 47 32. We're stones throw away from all-time highs. That's it. We're done. You hear the music You say bye bye everybody Thank you Stay tuned for Chairman Powell stay tuned for Chairman Powell