 Welcome back, it's still the breakfast and plus TV Africa. Now, Nigeria's vice president, Professor Yemio Shibajou has to clear his intention to run for the office of the president. Professor Shibajou from Ogun State seeks to succeed his principal, President Mohammad Buhari, who second term in office end in May 2023. In his declaration speech posted on his social media handles, Shibajou said he has in the past seven years as vice president, traversed every part of the country, meeting Nigerians of every cater, class, tribe and walks of life, both young and old. The vice president will challenge for the ticket of the rolling party, the ABC, with others who have the clear their intentions, including ex-legislate governor, Borla Tinnabu and transportation minister, Ruti Mi Amechin. Well, let's take the clip office and declaration or come back and introduce our guests. Stay with us. Formerly declaring my intention to run for the office of the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria on the platform of our great party, the All Progressive Congress. If by the grace of God and the will of the people and given the opportunity, then I believe that first, we must complete what we have started. Radically transforming our security and intelligence architecture, completing the reform of our justice system, focusing on adequate remuneration and welfare of judicial personnel and ensuring justice for all and the observance of the rule of law, rapidly advancing our infrastructure development, especially power, roads, railways and broadband connectivity, providing an excellent environment for businesses to thrive, taking the agricultural revolution to the next level, especially mechanization and developing the farm to table value chain, making sure that the government, its agencies and regulators, serve the business community, creating a tech economy that will provide jobs for millions of young Nigerians, enhancing our social investment program to a full-scale social welfare program, completing the promise of lifting a hundred million Nigerians out of poverty within this decade, completing the task of ensuring that all Nigerians, male and female, attend school, reforming our educational system for relevance to the challenges of this century, completing the task of universal health coverage for all and strengthening the capacity of states and local governments to deliver on their respective mandates. All right, welcome back there. That was the vice president, Professor Yemi Oshibadro, declaring his intention to run for the office of the president in Com 2023. Joining us now to look at all that has played out since his declaration and all of them, the reactions and the promises that he has made, we have Mohammed Abdul-Lai, a public affairs analyst, joining us. Thank you so much, Mohammed, for joining us this time around. Thank you for having me. Good morning, Nigerians. All right, let's just start with the vice president's declaration, you know. It was to be expected because before now there have been talks concerning him running for the president, even though he did not physically or verbally mention that there were support groups that pushed his ambition forward ahead of him, but right now he has made his declaration and it has elicited a whole lot of reactions from Nigerians, both the good, the bad, and the ugly. Top amongst that is the comment from the former governor of Lagos State, Bola Ahmed Tinibu, where he went and said that he has no son eligible to contest. He said it, I'm just trying to paraphrase what he said, but a lot of people believe that his comment yesterday has similarly drawn the battle line between him, that's the vice president and the former Lagos governor. What are your thoughts, really? Yeah, thank you. The thing is, the vice president, like every other Nigerian, is actually very eligible to put his name or put himself forward, apologies, to say he's contesting for the elections. But again, if you look at the circumstances that we have, that we find ourselves in Nigeria, particularly with the issues of Godfatherism, then you also want to question why at this point in time his principal, whether we like it or not, Tinibu is his principal from his antecedent from being the attorney general of Lagos to even Tinibu's personal liars in prosecuting so many cases. You know, if you recall, he was actually the lead counsel for Tinibu when Riba, the first chairman of the EFCC then wanted to prosecute Tinibu. He was actually the lead counsel that was defending the case. He was also the lead counsel for Tinibu during his trial at the CCB. He was also the lead counsel when the late luminary genius, Ghanifari, like I like to refer to him, was accusing Tinibu of certificate for duty, Toronto scandal, if you remember, you know? So in my opinion, am I right or wrong? Vice president Yemi Osipado is one individual in Nigeria knows a whole lot more about Tinibu than any other Nigerian. Yes, I am telling you this, I might be right and I might be wrong, but you know, as a lawyer who's had a whole lot of closed cases, being the lead counsel for Ahmed Bola Tinibu he's got a whole lot of, because you can't lie to your lawyers, I'm telling you, you can't lie to anybody, you can't lie to your lawyer because they need all the truth in the world so that they know how to defend your case. So like I mentioned earlier, you had one, two, three, four or even more cases, serious cases where he's defended Tinibu and his wife, you understand? So I think it is in that respect that people will see him as a betrayer because he's got a whole lot of secrets about Mr. Tinibu, you understand? Ahmed Bola Tinibu, so I'm sure he's part of what is a kind of confidence for him to say, okay, yeah, I'm competent, these guys got nothing against me, yes, to hand me down, so I'm competent and I've been in the corridors of, let me tell you, power is very, very intoxicating, you understand? So being in the corridors of power for seven years as the vice president, he's seen it all, even though he's not in charge, but he's like he mentioned in his declaration speech, he's represented Nigerian international committees, he's been to almost all the parts, 77 and 74 local governments in Nigeria, he's seen it all. So why not take the mantle, you understand? But on the other way, like I mentioned earlier, some people are seeing it from the side that because he's worked so closely with Tinibu, his boss, if you want to call him that, call it that way. And so, yeah, it seems like a betrayal to say when his boss wants to contest. And this is the first time that Tinibu is saying he wants to contest for president after leaving office as governor for more than, I think, about 20 years or more, sorry, about 16 or 17 years or more, you know? So why will you now contest against your boss? So it's about to lie, I wouldn't lie to you. And people who are saying it's going to be settled after the primaries, I just laugh. I tell you, even after the primaries, the war is just beginning because whoever wins the primaries, whether it's Tinibu or Osimba Joe, if the war is just beginning, even if it's Tinibu, I can tell you he will never trust Osimba Joe for anything. He might just pretend, but I think it's the other way around too, your guess is as good as mine. So it's going to be a very, very interesting scenario in some months to come also when the primaries are here. Okay, but let's also look at some other arguments as we put out here. The fact that some people are saying constitutionally the vice president acts on the dictate of his boss. And so he should not be blamed for, I mean, taking this particular action at the end of the day. For instance, now you have the vice president in his speech, he talked about continuity with the Buhari's policy, this administration where he's part of. We also understand the fact that he's been the chairman of the economic team of the country. And if you look at the economy right now, we're really going down, we're not going forward. And so there's a lot of it. Some people say, if you haven't made any impact being part of this government, then what is even the yardstick that you would even do better? So how do you react to this? Now, it is important that we know that as the vice president, Yemi Osimba Joe has very little to do. His job is that of subordination. Whatever his boss assigns him to do is what he would do. Forget the fact that he's the head of the economic committee of the government. And sometimes when president Buhari is leaving the country, occasionally hands over to him. But it still boils down to what it is, what is the objective of president Buhari and what Mr. Buhari, president Buhari allows him as the vice president to do. I tell you that as a person, Yemi Osimba Joe has displayed a whole lot of brilliance. You understand? Yemi Osimba, you recall that a certain time when he was even given the mantle of leadership. I mean, handed over to by the president while living in the country. He swiftly sucked the DSS DG, you understand? Within those few moments and few times he's got power, he's acted a whole lot. But like I mentioned earlier, there is a limit to what he can do. But I also agree, you understand? If things are not going well, as a person or as a professional that he is, in trying to maintain his own integrity, in trying to maintain his own competence whatsoever. He, some of the argument is that he should be able to say, okay, if this is not done the right way. For instance, in so many cases where the federal government have refused to obey court orders and as a senior advocate of Nigeria, a competent barista himself. He is supposed to say, if you are not doing this way, probably he might resign. But how many political office holders in Nigeria take that route? If not known, it's almost not existed. You understand? The probability is very, very low. So in terms of his competence, I don't really think we can judge him. That's my opinion anyway. I don't really think we can judge him based on his contribution to this government. Because like I mentioned earlier, he is a support unit, you understand? But he's only, he's only, what is he called? If things are not going wrong. If some, if things are not going right that what you feel should be, you will have the opportunity to resign and state your case. You understand? I think about, but in our kind of country, that's a very rare case. So it's a very rare case. All right, Mohammed, let's talk about some other reactions that have through to this development. We read the dailies this morning and they were all awash which are the president or the VPs and declaration. The Daily Independent actually put it this way. VP or Sheba Jabola, Tenebuz loyalist draw battle lines but I want you to react to this particular rider that followed that caption. VP is a pawn on the chessboard of some game masters. That's the Lagos APC. Mm-mm. Now, it's funny and very serious at the same time. You know, in my earlier analysis I said he's got a whole lot about Mr. Tenebuz even that no one I feel in my own opinion whether in APC or outside APC or even in Mr. Tenebuz private life can get a hold on because as a lead counsel, you have to tell your lawyer the whole truth about cases. That is one. And again, you've seen the moves particularly from many of the Southwest governors where I can categorically say, for instance, a kitty governor, my state governor on those things. These are people who are also prodigies of Bola and Tenebuz but they've shown whether through their actions whether through their speeches and their inactions that they are not really in support of Bola and Tenebuz. And these are the people that at this early stage I would say are conversing that support even if they are feeling somewhere that the kitty state governor is also not seeing their mission to declare. But these are some of the, what's it called? These are some of the people that I think are backing and definitely Mr. Ojodu, the political advisor to the vice president who was once also, if you won't say a prodigy, but a partner of Bola and Tenebuz in the struggle for democracy in Nigeria. So, you know, it's really a tough game. And if you, before his declaration, there were 10 governors that attended his private meeting. You understand? Even though Lagos state governor was also there but you know, definitely your guests are as good as mine to say definitely he will be backing. I met Bola Tenebuz, he was there for the vice president, probably as a mark of respect. And some other governors, for instance, Zulu of Governor Zulu, Professor Zulu of Bono. You see, these are called Buharis. You see, he wasn't at the meeting with Bola and Tenebuz. So, these are some of the feelings that gives you the incline that probably Mr. President himself, I mean President Buhari, is the one backing the vice president. But the former Lagos state governor also had a meeting. Mohammed, let me just get the word in edge wise. The former Lagos state governor also had a meeting with the governors shortly after the VP's declaration. What does all of this say? Yes, yeah, maybe, sorry, I didn't get you, sorry. The former Lagos state governor, that's Senator Tenebuz also had a meeting with the governors just after the VP's declaration. What does all of this really tell? Yes, yes, if you listen to him very well, he was talking about collaboration and partnership. And actually, officially letting the governors know that he will be contesting for the position of President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and is conversing for their support. You will see the good thing for Tenebuz, I feel, if there is primaries because you never can rule out consensus, consensus candidates at the APC, you see their recent convention, most of the positions, including that of the chairmanship was by consensus. So if there are regulated primaries, whether it be direct primaries or indirect primaries, Mr. Tenebuz, Ahmed Bola Tenebuz has a lead to edge, I will say, because he's got more support from the North. Whether I want to agree to that or not, you see, wherever you find Ahmed Bola Tenebuz, for instance, you will find Governor Ganduja. There are feelers that, Governor Ganduja of Kano, there are feelers that he wants to become the vice president. So it is really pulling up, and you know, Kano is one of the big states where you have a whole lot of votes, you understand? So if you have Ganduja, you have the KB state governor, and definitely, and they are almost everywhere, even with the actions of the former APC Ketaka Committee chairman, I mean, the governor of Yobes state, Mehmal Abdi, he's also a strong supporter, with his action and inaction, a strong supporter of Ahmed Bola Tenebuz, and so many other and other governors like that, who constitute the majority of governors, I mean, even in terms of population in Nigeria. So if there is primaries, I am feeling that Ahmed Bola Tenebuz has a better chance, but if they go by consensus, if they go by consensus wanting to impose, what's it called? A candidate on the party. It is possible that the vice president, Yami Osibayo, but the APC governors, they have led fears over consensus on candidacy. It was actually part of what they said at the meeting yesterday. Yes, well, this is politics. They can't come at their face to tell you what they are planning. I tell you, it's very, very possible. Today, maybe two, four, five years ago, let's say four, five years ago, in 2019 or in 2018 or 2017, if you tell anyone that vice president Osibayo will be contested declaring for president while he's a benefactor or beneficiary, if anyone you want to use. Ahmed Bola Tenebuz has significant interest to be president. Probably most people will argue with you, even myself will argue with you. But that's politics. And power changes people, you understand? Being in the corridor of power, you feel, okay, if I am this, why can't I grab that? If I am that, why can't I grab this? You understand? So it's very possible. And everybody is seeing this, whether it's the chances are slim or the probability is high. Everybody is seeing that there is a chance. So whatever Ahmed Bola Tenebuz or the vice president and let's not even discount another contestant, like Ahmed, who has also a strong hold. You remember some two months back, he was actually Toban, the trusted one. I forgot the word now in Hausa, but that's what it means. The trusted one of the Casino Emirates. You understand? So you can't really discount all these people. They might not pull heavy weight, but they might, what's it called? They might succeed in pulling out votes from all the major contestant. And I must tell you, if I must add, you see the PDP, if they put their house in order, whether Ahmed Bola Tenebuz wins the primaries for APC or vice president Yemi Osimado wins the primaries for APC, the PDP has a better chance to win the general election. Because whether you like it or not, sir, I am telling you, the primaries will resonate into a whole lot of acrimony. I'm telling you, no, you're expecting to win, we'll show you about wins. So the cost is clear for the opposition if they put their house in order to win the general election. So you see the, I mean, the declaration of the vice president costing any confusion in the APC. Do you think this is going to cost any kind of repo in the party? It is going to cost, there is no doubt about it. It's going to cost a whole, not even a confusion, but acrimony, like I said. You had the first response of Ahmed Bola Tenebuz yesterday when he was asked that his son has just declared for president. And what he said that he said he's got no son that is old enough to declare for such a position. So you understand? So, and if you look at it, when was the last time you saw vice president, Yemio Simbajo, and Ahmed Bola Tenebuz together at a particular social event or even a private event, you understand? Because when the feelers began to occur or began to come up, that the vice president would definitely contest. He's got a whole lot of backers across the country. And you see, it became clear that, okay, this man definitely wants to contest. So you see, they started avoiding themselves. I can't remember the last time I found them together at any social event, whether politically, whether socially, whether privately, that is acrimony in itself. Because in recent times, they used to be together. When the president, when the vice president is in Lagos, definitely visit the Lion of Bodilon, you know? But it's not like that. And that is the beginning of acrimony. People, both parties will begin to sit down and dissect. Who is for me and who is against me? You understand? If you probably come to Lagos, for instance, Mr. Tenebuz definitely will still have more aid because most of the political juggernaut here are his boys, are his benefactors, and so on and so forth. Yeah, but elsewhere also, probably around the country, the vice president must have had his influence. If you see, in recent times, he's been going to everywhere. He's, in fact, you don't, probably when you are having your naming ceremony, if you invite him, he will come. Because that is part of the strategy. That is part of what he needs to gain more support, to be there at the local level, to say, guys, I am ready, come vote for me. All right, let's still talk about him. What's ahead, you know, for the VP, as he has made his intention known. Because aside from the former Lagos state governor, he also will be contending the ticket to the Minister of Transportation, who wrote to me, I made you who, also declared before a mama's crowd in Port Hacott over the weekend. But right now, you know, a lot of reactions have showed the VP's declaration, although he said he was going to build on water his principal, his principal's legacy, that's President Mohammad Buhari. What is he going, what do you think he can bring to the table? What can he do differently this time around? Because if he's going to ride on the wings of the president right now, he might not really be speaking favorably when my dreams are because of the reactions I've actually condemned that particular statement that he made. Thank you for that question. But you know, as a subordinate, you can't discontent your boss. It's just a normal rule. Whether right or wrong, since that person is your boss, you must acknowledge him or her and then try to make them feel fine, whether they are on the right path or not. But having said that, you see, we must be very factual with ourselves as Nigerians. In our country, how many times has manifestos won people election? My brother, how many times? I look at the debate in Lagos gubernatorial, for instance, I look at the debate in Lagos gubernatorial elections in recent years. The most brilliant gentleman that has been, he speaks very well. He's got articulated plans to take Lagos to the next level. If I may use that word. One Babatunde, something, I've forgotten his second name. But he's never come second or third even on the election day, you understand? So it is not about being, it's not about your oratory. It's not about what you lay down to achieve or how you want to achieve them. I tell you, our system is built in a way where these things do not count. I must be very factual with you. These things do not count. You understand? So what people see, what people look at first is probably who is this person? Where is he coming from? And how best probably can he influence the election? How, if I'm voting for him or her? There are so many statements out there. If I vote for a shawarai, for instance, am I not wasting my vote? That was what the late Ghanifar Emi also was equal. Also faced why he was trying to contest for the presidency. But Ghanifar Emi is under the platform ADC also. When I vote for him, I think I'm just wasting my vote. You understand? So most importantly, the party matters. And at this moment, the two dominant parties is the APC and the PDP. If you are not part of these parties, the chances that you are going to lost general election is more than 70% to 80%. And that's a high percentage. You understand? So we vote so much along party lines. You understand? And it's not good for democracy. Because in fact, there should be, I think the new electoral bill is providing, if I'm not mistaken, providing opportunity for individuals to contest elections as individuals without party affiliations. But I can tell you, how many individuals can win elections in such a way, in such circumstances in our country? So it is, we are so much affiliated to parties, we are not talking about- Mohamed Abdelahi, we have to let you go now. Thank you very much. Thank you so much for being part of the show this morning. Mohamed Abdelahi is a Public Affairs Analyst, and we have been looking at the declaration of the Vice President, Professor Yemi Osibajo, joining the race for 2023 presidential race. And first he has to win the presidential ticket for the APC. And let's see how all of that pans out as we progress. All right, so we'll take a quick break right now. And Nigerians have been leaving in the court and put the petrol ducklet for the past few days are all in the wake of the national greed collapsing again, you know, also so closely in just one month. We'll be talking about all of that and the implication and also preferring solutions to that in a moment. To join us again.