 Good morning on a Wednesday morning. I'm Jay Fidel. This is think-tek and more specifically its global connections with Carl Baker Carl until recently was the executive director of Pacific Forum Before that he was with the APC SS for a long time. That's the Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies at Fort DeRussis Anyway, Carl, welcome to the show. Thank you so much for coming down. Yeah, thanks, Jay I think this whole, you know global global contagion fear Issue is a good topic for global connections because it really is about globalism It's about it's about globalization and and how do you deal with globalization? And I think that what we've seen so far, you know in response to this this global contagion fear is is really sort of Half measures based on on what we have available to us. Yeah, this well This is new space is new space not only for China, but for the world and certainly for the US and where we are called upon to Invent new solutions in the necessity of the time And the question I suppose is how does this either bring us together or maybe separate us? So the question posed is what one of the geopolitical implications in terms of China and governance in China In terms of China's relationship with other countries in Asia and the world And the US of course and you know, I mean everywhere I don't have to list all of what's the 70 countries have to have coronavirus now So the question is how their relationships changed. How is a relative power of you know Those who used to be powerful or maybe not so powerful. How is the relative for relationships changed? Where do you start that analysis? It's not easy Carl. Yeah, I know and I was thinking about that How do you start this analysis and and really I think where we start is thinking about think about it in terms of globalization It's not it's not new in the sense that we haven't recognized that there's a fear and there's a threat of a pandemic virus or a pandemic Something because we've we've thought about that. There's people who have thought about that. There's people who have said we're not planning for that You know, we've had SARS. We've had MERS. We've had H1N1 You know, we've had all these all these different kinds of viruses and and this one suddenly blossoms and it looks like a problem But it's really an old problem and and the and the real issue is how do you deal with it? It's a collective action problem and of course We don't do well with collective action problems because everything is seen through a lens of national security So the initial measures are all very much focused on on national security So we close borders. Well, we know that closing borders isn't fully effective against a global a globalized problem Because you have unintended consequences when you close borders, but you also have this global supply chain So, you know, there's a whole the whole range of factors that are involved you have economic issues that that are based on on the fact that we've globalized our Economies and we have we have cultural factors that Make it very difficult to close out people coming into your into your country. So yeah, we we we say, okay We're gonna stop all Chinese. Well, suddenly it isn't just the Chinese now It's the the the South Koreans the Japanese the Italians the Iranians Where do you stop? Do you do you know? Do you build a wall for everybody at this point because I think that's that's really the Dilemma, and I think that's where we start analyzing it. Is there an opportunity here for collective action? Of course, there is but can we actually Implement collective action in in this scenario It's very difficult because we have all these nationalist measures built and we have a very much a tendency in today's world To to have national responses I mean in the past you would always rely on the United States as as taking the lead of the International response. We don't have that we have the WHO trying to sort of be an international organization and and provide a collective response and it's and it's been Partially successful as you would expect from an international organization because they don't really have the resources To to respond to it today. I saw that that the I am the International Monetary Fund has has Dedicated 65 I want to say 65 billion dollars to the problem Well, that's another that's another international organization that has the capacity to to to put forward initiatives But that money has to come from somewhere So so you still have to have a national response that recognizes the need for collective action So I think that's where we start we start looking at what have we done so far? It's been mostly at the national level trying to contain trying to trying to prevent it from getting inside our borders But the fact is is that it's going to be very difficult because because there's there's things for example here in Hawaii We have we have tourism as the primary Engine for our economy and and so do we shut off the the flights to to Korea? You know we have done that Hawaiian Airlines has done that But are we going to shut off all the tourists from Korea? Are we going to shut off all the tourists from Japan that puts the economy in a very difficult spot? Yeah, well and time is of the essence which further complicates it because the steps you take Need to be in time in order to contain the virus And I wanted to ask you also about the notion of quarantine So you say well, okay, well quarantine our country will build a wall And we won't let anybody in from Korea for example That doesn't necessarily solve the problem that quarantine is directed at solving I mean quarantine ideally as you find out everybody who's got the disease or is likely to get the disease and you put them in a room So they can't affect people who don't have the disease and that's the way you burn it out We haven't been able to do that even China has been able to do that for the lack of selecting the appropriate Sector the the appropriate what do you want to call it? Group for the quarantine or for treatment And we haven't learned that and time is of the essence if we muck around and don't do that Well, you know the the coronavirus is going to go further Yeah, I mean and you see that happening, you know where where for some reason there was a there was an out a community a Community in northern Italy someone in Iran The the the the the church in in Daegu, Korea, you know and and you can't really prevent these things just like in Well, in the United States apparently it's in the Seattle area in in a in an old In an old people's home, you know So how do you how do you figure out what what communities you're going to isolate and you're going to quarantine? It's it's you know again I'll go back to the analogy of it's sort of a microcosm of Globalization you can't contain globalization you have to you have to figure out how to collectively Respond to globalization and of course a collective action response is always going to be better But again in today's nationalist tendons nationalistic Attitude toward toward security. It's very difficult to to see how you're going to implement that effectively Without without changing your mindset about how you really address security issues talking about I mean National nationalism patriotism the boundary of the country sovereignty all those concepts Which you study for a long time, but in your studies of foreign policy international relation You know Carl at the end of the day am I right to say we and all of us remain mammals We remain mammals and They say that I mean we have emotions and patriotism and nationalism and you know dedication to country and all that Protection of country national security. These are in some significant part. They're emotional reactions emotional mechanisms And so if if you say well Xi Jinping is taking people out of their homes or he's barricading their their doors You know pretty inhuman things sometimes And then people react to that or if one country stops another country closes the gate on another country It does something which would be you know treated as a clearly unfair in another time People get you know emotional reactions And so that's got to enter into the the factor isn't it in terms of planning and trying to reach collaboration People are emotional about their countries people are emotional about the implications of quarantine implications of you know the select see on selecting out people for separate treatment This is all hard hard on people and I wonder how that affects diplomatic relations How it affects international, you know Discussion international action Well, I mean and you know at this point It's it's a little bit difficult to tell how this is going to play out because we're still in the in the early stages I think of the response and so we're still dealing with with initial measures But what what impact is that going to have on the longer term? I think it's still an open question, but clearly early on in this in this response There was a lot of a lot of anti-Chinese racism. I think I would call it You know that the several of the old racist tropes about all the Chinese eat anything, you know And and all the all the sort of derogatory comments and and the fact that that You know the the total focus was on China in some respects, you know China has actually sort of appears to be getting control over over the spread where Countries like South South Korea and and Italy and and Iran seem to be having a harder time of Actually getting control of it at this point that now that again it's an early assessment in in the on the part of Korea and and Iran and Italy, but I mean clearly there they're in the thousands and and the numbers are growing by multi hundreds Where in the last couple days China has showed that it the numbers are actually Diminishing that are that are new cases. So Yeah, it does affect I think how we how we view diplomatic relations But again, you know there there has to be some some level of leadership that can can address this collective problem and and Yes, there is a natural natural tendency to to view things through through through Nationalist eyes and and what we need to protect our is our country first and all that but you I think you really need to Stop and think about this as as an example of Collective action on global security issues We could have the same thing in in maybe ten years over over climate change or over over, you know The destruction of the environment How do we deal with that again? It's a collective action problem. Just like just like the pandemic health is is really a Collective action problem that needs collective action and it has to be Funded by the nation-states unless you want to go to some other form of government and or some other form of Global organization, which which isn't really very realistic, you know If you're if you're a true globalist, you know, you say well, let's let's develop these these International mechanisms to do that. That's probably not going to happen So I think we need to find that balance where yes, nationalism is is good in in some respects because it builds identity And it gives you gives you a sense of belonging to you to a group of people But I think we need to recognize that there has to be some compromises Given what we've done in the economy given what we've done in in the ability to travel to to anywhere in the world That we have to have some mechanisms to to actually deal with these collective Global problems. Yeah, and there are challenges to those mechanisms. And for example, we live in a time of Governments that seem to be going more to despotism and you know Dictatorships a number of them in the world and it it's hard for me to see or people I think in general to see how they would be doing an altruism a Collaborative altruism or an altruist an altruistic collaborate collaboration Because it doesn't necessarily suit their political needs. So the question is, you know, how this is a difficult How do you get there from here? In other words, if I made you The king of the universe if I made you the guy who could actually pull the strings on all the puppeteers Without necessarily making you the king just a guy who could take the steps necessary or cause them to be taken to achieve The collaboration that we absolutely need it's a biblical a biblical test if you will What would you do because the United States as you mentioned has been a leader of the free world and the world in general Since World War two and you know for a good part of that time not all the time a good We've done a pretty good job and we brought people together. We were not the reserve currency for no reason You know, we are the you know the bottom line for a lot of countries and even with China's rise We remain the bottom line, but We have most recently relegated that and most recently turned our back and become isolationist Which is just the wrong direction if you have a crisis like this. So it seems to me Well, let me leave leave it in your hands is the marry the marionette here What would you cause these leaders or leaders to do? What would you cause existing international organizations like the United Nations? Unfunded or ill-funded to do or the EU or ASEAN or any of these multinational groups, what would you cause them to do? Okay, well, I mean that's that's that's a really really difficult question And I think you have to figure out how you create incentives for those for those Organizations and those countries and those dictators to actually support some level of International response now, of course, you know that the old trope is that well what you do is is you find a new threat You know, so you find you find a threat that everybody can agree on is a problem Well in some respects a pandemic is and so I think this is this is an opportunity to figure out how you actually create some incentives Probably economic incentives to to respond to this sort of crisis And I think that's that's where you can come up with some creative ideas of how do you create some incentives for? For people to see this as an opportunity to collaborate on on an issue. That's going to benefit them in In five years or in in ten years Yes, yes, yeah, yes And and I mean, I don't I'm not saying it's it's easy But I think that that if if you can if you can come up with a way to to I mean and in some ways This this is happening that that the supply as the supply chains break down in China You know there this this is sort of accelerating the move to other countries for for The goods that were manufactured in China So if you're if you're a despot in in say the Philippines or if you're if you're in Cambodia You know, maybe you do see this as your opportunity to to actually establish a manufacturing center in in in Vietnam in Cambodia Philippines Indonesia, you know, and so you you actually do benefit from from this sort of thing by by sort of reallocating resources to to a broader globalist perspective where people then begin to realize that in fact there are benefits to to globalization that it isn't just you suffering from from people taking taking things from your country now I guess the question then is is does that really benefit the United States? Well, I think it does because I'm still convinced that that the United States as the as the big economy as the reserve currency as as the one that really benefits from from global economic expansion that we can benefit from that as well, and I think that that it the what the nationalist response that that is Possible here is not going to be productive and certainly in a place like Hawaii where we do depend on on international travelers and international tourists and and Other people from other countries coming in and buying their second homes in Hawaii I think it is beneficial to to recognize that there is There is a benefit to the collective action Yeah, you know, I'm I can't help but thinking of that old that old slogan, you know plus a charge plule a mem We are living in a time of change and it's not necessarily voluntary. It just happens We have reached a certain point in our biological development our species development if you will You know where things are changing fast and we we don't have experience to deal with them And and as you said, I think this is really an important takeaway from your points is that we're not ready to go to a global Revolution here. We're not ready to establish a new International order maybe maybe little pieces of it, but not, you know an overarching new International order we have to deal with the notions of sovereignty and the countries that have been established 190 some out of them around the world, you know, this is probably not going to change that But seems to me that if I take country a and country a recognizes who said this Mao Every crisis is an opportunity. He might have said that anyway So it's an opportunity for anybody who wants to step in an opportunity in manufacturing an opportunity in trade an opportunity and taking You know economic risks and like and stepping up. I mean for example The country that figures out the you know, how to use that genome information that China provided To make a cure or a vaccine that country will be a global hero for a long time That's leadership to solve this problem with, you know, one country's I don't know if it's going to happen this way, but one country's biochemical research capability That will be amazing. But here's this and this is what I wanted to ask you So say a country steps up say a country decides this is an opportunity like Mao or whoever said And and it takes risks and it gets into a more leadership position in the face of a global crisis Okay That is going to change the juxtaposition of that country in the world picture. That's going to change that's going to have political What do we say geopolitical effect, isn't it? And so can you can you react to that? Can you tell me how you think that might work at the end of the day when this is resolved? Hopefully soon Um, the world will not exactly be the same geopolitically will it? No, it won't and I think that's an excellent point Jay is that this is how change occurs You know crises how you respond to a crisis is always Important in in the trajectory of where things go and that's why I said right now what we're in is is you know It's sort of a global contagion fear and what we can do and what we should be doing is thinking about How do we create this into a global contagion? Prosperity and and get away from the fear and get away from the opportunity and go go to the opportunity So make it a a global opportunity to respond to global issues And and make it bigger than bigger than this particular crisis And so I think that that that's exactly right now who's going to who's going to be the one to step up? I mean if if china develops the the the cure, you know, if they demonstrate the capacity to to contain the virus for the most part and come up with with the with the chemical solution to to Preventing the virus from spreading, you know, then that then that puts china in a very good light if the united states can do it Same thing european union, you know, it's unlikely that that a smaller country would would achieve the same sort of stature by just by developing the the the the virus Vaccine but certainly certainly. I think that that's the that's how we should be approaching it in terms of global leadership is is Talking about how do we how do we get past this and and how do we how do we? Incentivize people to look at ways to get past it and to and to apply it to other issues Like I said this this pandemic is just one issue that's that's out there. That is a global problem There certainly are a lot of other problems that we have That that that would would benefit from from finding that way to move forward on collective action So I think I think you know that's that's if I was made king for a day What I would try to do is find ways to to reinforce that idea that it does take a collective response And that if if you can come up with a collective solution that that then puts you in a better position to to benefit you and The people that that benefit from your actions. Yeah, this will be over After a while. Yeah, a lot of people may die Maybe a lot of people may die for from an attack like this But at the same time and you you suggest to me carl that we are going to we are now learning lessons about how to collaborate On an international scale lessons perhaps that we haven't we haven't really integrated for a long time I think it was a certain amount of collaboration among the allies in world war two That taught us and still lessons that we you know used today But this is even more challenging because more countries are involved more more risks to the civilian population are involved And so we could learn we I think we probably will learn a lot of lessons we can apply to other common threats For example, how do you like climate change if we collaborate on climate change such as the The conferences in paris have never been able to achieve If we could achieve collaboration using the the lessons, you know of the coronavirus We might be able to really make a dent in climate change. Wouldn't that be something it sounds like a you know A bright light at the end of the tunnel. Maybe maybe i'm not being practical. What's your reaction? Well, yes, I agree and and that's the point I'm trying to make is is the collective action that we need in this particular instance Is is first of all to build some trust between countries on on what they're doing I saw a clip on on the news yesterday about how you order food in china these days And and the the guide brings the the food out to a table And on that table is the food and it has the temperature of the person who who made the food And the temperature of the person who packaged the food and then you go pick it up and you can check all that you know, so so put that you know Make that as an analogy to how we deal with that at the country level And and if you had trust that that you know that that other country actually did what they were supposed to do To prevent the spread, you know, then you don't have to have that that certification of the guy's temperature But you know, that's the level of that's the level of of trust that you need to move forward on these on these collective issues So, you know, I think that that's that's what could be learned from this and and again you can apply it to to Many other international problems. I mean, you know, we we've tried to do that with with international terrorism at one point And of course we sort of over politicized that and made it made it more more complicated than it needed to be Probably but but all those all those Collective issues need a collective global solution and and there's ways to do it And I think that that's that's what we should look at is how we find ways to to incentivize Those collective actions and and recognize the need to build that trust so that you can actually move that collective action Well, we've all seen, you know, the criticism of the trump administration and the cdc We've all seen, you know, the mistakes around the masks and the tests And all this we've seen, you know, competing advice from so many sources. It all seems, you know, fragmented in this country And I think, you know, we're waiting we're waiting for a bad shoe to drop here And, you know, let me add the thought that if we do a bad job on this I think we are going to suffer geopolitically if we have a lot of deaths in this country because of mistakes and silliness and politicization we're gonna we're gonna suffer even the united states would suffer because The world will look at us and say what a bunch of fools. How come they couldn't deal with this? We thought they were the, you know, most smartest, you know, richest country in the world. Look at them thrashing around But okay, here's the thing Now I make you secretary of state or somebody who supervises the secretary of state And and I want to follow through and all the points you've made charle What do you do? What organizations, you know, do you organize? What? What relationships you or what international efforts do you make in order to be the free, you know, leader of the free world? I mean, that's that's a difficult question. But I think what what you have to do is you you have to say Let's depend on the international health organizations. So WHO is certainly where I start I certainly start by by giving them the credibility by giving them the the the authority to to Make decisions about how this thing is spreading to make decisions about how much how much quarantine is really helpful And and and rely on on the the doctors and and the epidemiologists that are out there that that understand these viruses And and the other thing I would do is, you know, I would I would sort of get at stopping bad Things from happening and and the bad things are all the conspiracy theories that are out there you know, I think that that is something that that the National government can do is is instead of you know, instead of sort of encouraging ideas that this is really just China working on a on a Bio chemical or bio weapon or something, you know, look at look at how do we how do we really bring science to Help us rather than thinking about all the all the the negative things look at look at how do we how do we Use science and technology to make it better Carl, what a great discussion. We've covered so much ground here. I really appreciate it I want you to come back if you don't mind later on as the thing unfolds one way or the other But for now, I think we're out of time and I just want to say when this is over Can we both please wash our hands? Yeah, that's right Well, there's a shortage of purel. So hopefully there's still soap in the bathroom Carl Baker. Thank you so much, Carl. Thank you