 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got two very fun games on tap this weekend with the NFC and a seconference Championships the Ravens taking on the cheese the 49ers taking on the Lions We're gonna break down both those games today with dr. Ed fang Getting his read on those games where his number show value at Fandall sportsbook and get you ready for it should be a Delightful Sunday. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Joined here is mentioned by dr. Ed fang find his work on Twitter at the powerink check him out at the powerink comm as well and Ed Pretty fun games on tap you're wearing your Michigan hats. I'm assuming because of the Jim Harbaugh news as well So how you doing today? Doing pretty well. I mean I picked up the Michigan hat Because it was on top of a bunch of hats, but yes, Jim Harbaugh is off back to the NFL I wish him the best if that's what he wants to do. He should go for it So, you know a lot of uns a lot of uncertainty in college football now We'll see what Michigan ends up doing. I think if I were Michigan, I would make one phone call the Lance Leopold See if there's any interest and then probably just probably promote drone or the head spot I think he's earned it a little bit of a risk when You have a young coach that doesn't have any head coaching experience or I guess you could argue little head coaching season Yeah, he's never he's never on a program. I think you do a great job but but we'll have to see about that but you know more changes in college football and Makes everything more everything next year that much more interesting. Yeah It's a bummer to lose Jim Harbaugh from the Big 10 is as a Big 10 fan myself But also it is nice to have him back in the NFL to kind of see if he can replicate what he did the first time Like those teams were good back when he's with the Niners and I Think we've had a long enough track record on him at three very different stops to say this guy can get the job done and When you give him a quarterback like Justin Herbert and Conversely give Justin Herbert a coach like him. That's gonna be a lot of fun to watch Right, San Diego was the one job that I think he had to take if you wanted to go back to the NFL And he got offered the same day your job He had to take it San Diego Los Angeles where wherever the heck they are the charging jacket the one that the one that comes with Justin Herbert Who right is probably the best quarterback that he has coached since Andrew luck Certainly the highest ceiling. I think you could argue. He has a higher ceiling than Andrew luck to right We know Justin Herbert can be amazing. They really haven't shown it yet You know, I mean they got some interesting pieces on defense, too I think that the the defense with with the right Coaching the right a couple simple moves. I think I mean, I think it's a better situation than when he first got to San Francisco however many years ago and So, yeah, you know, that doesn't mean it's gonna work out There's never any certainty that things are gonna work out at any level of football But I wish him the best and hope it works out. Well, yeah I just want to see Justin Herbert in a competent offensive environment and that's that's hopefully we'll be getting here with Harbaugh So excited to see that one next year before then though, we got to break down We're gonna see this Sunday for these conference championship matchups We'll break down what Ed thinks about those games here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast tomorrow JJ Zachary's and swings back by talking some player props for the conference championships Lawson Austin Cass on to talk about the EPL match week 22, which begins next Tuesday all that right here in the covering the spread Podcast feed so go search for that wherever you get your podcast if you like what you hear Let's say five star rating on Apple podcast and Spotify You can also find us on the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus when it comes to the NFL playoffs You got to win one game at a time But when you bet the NFL playoffs on Fandall one game can need a lot of wins Fandall America's number one sportsbook has all your favorite bets like the money line and spread There's all sorts of prop bets like quarterback passing yards who will score the first touchdown plus every day There's an NFL playoff game Fandall is giving all customers a no sweat same game parlay That means when you combine all your bets for a chance at a bigger payday You'll get bonus bets back if your SGP doesn't win Make every moment more with Fandall an official sportsbook partner of the NFL must be 21 plus in present and select states Minimum three leg parlay required refund issued is now a travel bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt max refund $5 unless otherwise specified Restrictions applies see terms at sportsbook. Fandall comm Fandall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC gambling problem Call 1-800 gambler or was a fandall comm slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia and Vermont Call 1-800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Arizona 1-888-789-7777 Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut 1 80 1-800 9 with it in Indiana 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgambler.com in Kansas 1-877-770 stop in Louisiana Visit mdgamblinghealth.org in Maryland 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia or call 1-800-522 4700 in Wyoming now and we'll begin to these games here in a second We've seen some shortening in the Super Bowl market at Fandall Sports But right now the Niners are plus 140 down from plus 150 earlier on this week and the Ravens are short into plus 170 From plus 190 obviously as those shorten others lengthen So has the sentiment on those two teams provided any value for you on either the cheese at plus 450 or the Lions at plus a 50 It's where things stand right now No, I mean, I think this market looks about right to me I haven't run any numbers on it, but the market hasn't inspired me to run any numbers on it I will get into the matchups. I mean, I think there's some very good reasons not to like Detroit to get past this weekend San Francisco should should make it there Baltimore clearly has a tougher matchup in Kansas City But they should be able to get it done So, I mean, you know that outright market looks pretty good Are you feeling about your your matchup between the Niners and the Ravens after the your son was looking at the logo thing? Yeah, it's I think you should feel pretty good. Yeah Yeah, I mean, you know, I mean You don't have to look further than the markets and the spreads to to figure out that those those look pretty good But we'll break it down a little bit more and why I think San Francisco and Baltimore are probably gonna play in Super Bowl. Yeah, and that's one I talked about on Monday in the first look The first look podcast talked about the Niners and Ravens to win that was plus 110 at the time. It's now minus 110 I added a 51% so the value is now gone there if you're Tuning in now didn't get a piece of that I would not bother think the value has been gone there sucked out of the market because we've seen some movement in favor of the Ravens and Niners ever set Let's talk now about the first game. That is the Kansas cheese at the Baltimore Ravens right now in Fandall Sportsbook We got a three and a half point spread. There were some fours yesterday. I don't think Fandall ever got there They're still a three and a half right now total is 44 and a half right now And let's start things off here on the Ravens offense inside of the ball that offense looked really good against the Texans And now they may get Mark Andrews back But you know the cheese defense has played pretty well all your logs So how do you say things playing out when the Ravens had the football? right, I mean, I think the thing to note about the Ravens offense is that they're pretty good at running the ball and Despite how good Kansas City has been on defense a lot of that has come from stopping the pass When they haven't been that good at stopping the run They're actually 30 second when I look at rushing success rate allowed after adjusting for opposition You've seen this characteristic of Kansas City's defense for for a couple seasons. They they tend to try to stop the pass They've actually been very good at that that It was kind of the same thing last week. I mean we thought Buffalo had a pretty good run offense with James Cook and they actually did pretty well. They had a 59% rushing success rate Which is significantly better than the NFL average of about 42% Baltimore is gonna have the same game plan I think Lamar is gonna run a lot too. He's gonna scramble because I do think, you know, Kansas City's corners are pretty good And are gonna be able to play some pretty good coverage there I don't think the matchups really favor. I think the matchups favor Baltimore I think they're gonna be able to run the ball be able to control the game and you know You see that they're a three and a half point favorite that seems right You know circus out at four. I wouldn't be surprised if this gets the four by the time we kick off Yeah, and I'm glad you mentioned the Lamar part two because that's the area where the Chiefs have really struggled this year is stopping Mobile quarterback selling a bit with Josh out last week But it's been a pretty consistent thing for them and now you get them against Lamar Jackson But also I think more importantly It's playoff Lamar Jackson where he runs a lot during the postseason like we talked about that a lot with every quarterback How they're more willing to run in these high leverage spots, but Lamar's postseason career He's gone for a hundred plus rushing yards and three out of five playoff matchups. He is very aggressive and I think that's a concern here for this team and That's not to mention the fact that the non Lamar elements this this offense have been pretty good too Even without Keith Mitchell with no JK Dobbins So I think that will be a pretty tough spot for the Chiefs defense try to slow down that rushing offense for the Ravens Now the Chiefs offense has also had two pretty good showings in the playoffs so far But they're facing the toughest opponent. They've had in a while. So can the Chiefs maintain the gains they've flashed in the playoffs? I Certainly think so. I certainly hope so so we can see more shots of Jason Kelsie I Probably spent more time on Monday morning looking at Jason Kelsieville than I than I care to admit but Kansas City's offense has been really good Lately not something that is unexpected We knew that they have the potential they had passing success rate of about 61% against Buffalo and Part of that was you know, they had some cluster injuries in the Buffalo secondary. They had two guys out a couple guys I probably weren't a hundred percent I think the other thing to note is that you know, there weren't any critical drops in that game You know none from Kelsey and even NBS Caught the ball when when it was thrown in his direction. So we we know this Chiefs offense has a high ceiling Baltimore's defense has has been really really good. So I think it is an interesting matchup One thing to note, you know, Marlon Humphrey has been an awesome cornerback for Baltimore for years He hasn't played since week 17 looks like he's probably not gonna play But his back up Ron Darby has been pretty good at least by pff coverage grade I do expect Baltimore's defense to be able to slow up slow down Kansas City just enough You know overall I have this game at Baltimore by about 2.2 points, but I don't really see any value on that side I mean gun ahead. I'd probably lean Kansas City plus three and a half But I don't think there's a ton of value there. I do think the but I do think Baltimore's defense is good enough and I think they have enough Good matchups on offense with with their run game that they they should win this and and I think three and a half is a pretty good number Yeah, three and a half right now at the number at Fandall Sports But if you want to take the plus three and a half that's minus 105 But as I'd mentioned probably a pretty decent shot We do get to a four here So you could hold out a bit longer and see if you're in on the cheese see if we get that to be four Which I again I think would probably happen at some point because this is gone it you get some threes on Monday I was the minus three and a half. I think was even money For the Ravens on later Monday, and now it's minus 115. There's definitely been some movement toward the Ravens here now I think that I think it's interesting you got it by 2.2 we talked a lot about my homes and still not really itching to take the three and a half what is the The cause for you for hesitancy and is it just not a big enough margin for you to justify it? Or what what is leading to the hesitation in taking the three and a half? Both more has been the best team in the FC all year Still gonna stand by that and as good as patching with homes is Yeah, can you keep it close for sure? but I just Again, like I said, like the matchups are gonna favor Baltimore. I think their defense is good enough To at least get a couple stops. So I do think they win this game and I mean, I'm not I'm not betting the side here Yeah, you did mention that there is interception prompt that catches your interest in this game for the Chiefs and the Ravens What what is that and what leads to that analysis for you? passion with homes is one of the best in not putting the ball in dangerous positions and my research has shown that You know the rate at which you put the ball in dangerous positions is is kind of the key to predicting Kind of the key to predicting interceptions going. Sorry. I'm look I never I'm getting distracted by you putting up this market because I'm like, oh That's freaking fantastic Anyways, I Patrick my homes at 53.2% not to throw back as one of the league's best So this is no is minus 104 105 at draft Kings was suggested tiny little bit of value. Obviously when you're plus 104 That's a better price Look when Patrick look any time that you can have the under on Patrick Holmes You feel good any time that you can have the over on a Baker Mayfield you feel good because he's awful At preventing balls from going in to dangerous positions So 53% is work, you know where my model puts it. I I never I mean, I want to go bet this right now Like I I these these props are never up on my fan duel So anyways, I can man if you want to go get it right now I can I can I guess I can't really stop the show and do it But probably finish the pod first I'll tell them to hold off. I'll keep this under wraps for a bit to try to get you some luck there Plus 104 is on the Mahomes not throw a pick number. Did you have the Baker prop last week for him to throw a pick? No, so that's a really interesting story I had Baker to throw a pick the two weeks before yeah first was against Carolina and He didn't throw I mean they lost both weeks He did not throw a pick against Carolina the last week of the season I still think it was a pretty good bet. He ended up putting a you know five bad balls So he no picks but five times that if defense ended up Ended up getting hand on the ball. Yeah, and Usually like kind of the break even 50 50 point is like three bad balls If you kind of do the math like that if you have three good bells, there's about 50% chance you get picked So If you have five, you know, you say hey, that's a good bet And it just didn't work out Against who they play. Oh Philly, you know, the price was good again I bet over over a half interception. I bet Baker to throw a pick He did not I think you only have one or two bad balls in that game So that was not as good of a bet obviously you can blame Philadelphia's complete lack of showing up on the defense side of All maybe for that and honestly before last week I Anticipated making the case like look, we got a bet Baker again got a bet Baker again like this guy is literally quite literally one of the worst at Putting the ball in dangerous positions and then the market completely flipped And so, you know, the price was like minus 150 minus 160 like right on top of where my numbers had it And I was really disappointed and even more disappointed when he threw a couple picks, right first drive I think he drew a pick to it was off Mike Evans hands. Yeah. So, you know, but But the one at the end of the game would just right me field where he throws it to the linebacker It was it was the most I know that like this could just because they're they're both box players But it was the most James Winston pick I've ever seen Baker mayfield throw Like that was always thing with James is like that linebacker is by himself Right to him. I that would that was when James says is most accurate if a linebacker was open James had like 100% accuracy rating at all times But yeah, Baker Baker did that one too. Okay, so Ed is on my home throw pick or to not throw a pick plus 104 Right now at Fandall sportsbook. Let's talk about the second game here on Sunday That is the Lions at the 49ers right now Fandall sportsbook the Niners at our 7-point favorites the minus 7 is minus 120 right now Fandall sportsbook total in this games up to 51 and a half It didn't sell it instead pad at 50 and a half for a pretty long while now Keithy here is Debo Samuel didn't practice Wednesday Sounds like he's got a shot to go based on what Kyle Shanahan said on Wednesday How much does Debo status impact your view with the 49ers in this game? I Honestly don't care. I know it sounds as crazy Given just what a quality player Debo Samuel is but the San Francisco offense still has a ton of weapons They still have Brock Hardy who has been an absolute revelation both last year and this year in terms of his efficiency I don't think Debo Really matters. I mean I had this game at Detroit. Sorry by the San Francisco about by six and a half points and look Detroit's defense is not good and I don't think you need Debo Samuel in this offense to To score points against a pretty poor secondary. So I see the matchups is pretty good for San Francisco and Yeah, so one thing I didn't want to mention that that I dug up this morning You know, we've noticed about how offensive efficiency passing efficiency has declined Over the last couple seasons as defenses tend to play too high safeties You can see this in the drop in yards for pass attempt I was six point three nine and twenty twenty the COVID year. It's down to six point zero eight in 2023 I mean, that's a significant decline San Francisco has been immune to this, you know Brock Hardy when I take yards for pass attempt For only party and then adjust for opponents. I have my eight point zero six So he would be expected to throw for eight point zero six yards for pass attempt against an average NFL defense Obviously more against the team like Detroit That's more than a half yard better than the second best quarterback in the NFL and you know, almost two yards better. They really In in the over the course of the season, they've really been able to get the ball downfield hit those explosive plays despite They're going against the general trend of NFL defenses. I think that's incredibly impressive And I really I mean pretty didn't have the best game last week But I really don't think that stops against this Detroit defense I don't either and I agree with you on the Debo part too because people look back to earlier on this year when Debo was not Playing and they're like, hey, you know the Niners lost a couple of games to the to the Vikings and the Bengals When Debo is out, but their left tackle Trent Williams was also out And I think that he matters more personally than Debo Samuel does and in those two games It was really just picks and like picks as you know from your analysis can be a little bit flukey And in those two games pretty average 9.1 yards per attempt against the Vikings and 11.8 against the Bengals He was shredding. He just threw really bad picks But that's not something he does super super often know the Ravens game was pretty bad But a lot of that was like getting behind negative game scripts being aggressive stuff like that. So Sure, it's a downgrade to not have Debo But like if you look at their game or their their splits with or without Debo I'd throw out week six because they also didn't have Christian McCaffrey for a large chunk of that game on the road against the Browns and in tough conditions excluding week six Their success rate is fifty six point six percent without Debo versus fifty four point two percent with Debo It actually goes up. That's not something you would expect to happen and be sustainable But like then there hasn't been that big of a drop-off. It's just been kind of random interception look So I agree with you that it's not gonna be a big downgrade massive downgrade to not have Debo out there Let's talk about the lion side of things here They showed last week that they can win through the air They've been a run-centric team the second half of the year because they're very efficient running the football But they showed they can win the air too. So how do they match up for you against this 49ers defense by your numbers? Right, I mean, I do think there are gonna be able to run the ball I don't think it's you know, it's not a matchup that really stands out to me Like in Baltimore versus Kansas City, I think Detroit's gonna need to get it done in the air I mean, they're one of the best teams in the NFL. I have San Francisco's defense is good But but not great. I got them 10th of my adjusted passing success rate Jared golf needs to to get it done to for them to To stay in this game potentially win this game You know, like I said, like I actually feel like this game is very similar to last week's With Detroit and Tampa Bay. So Tampa Bay was the team coming in and I felt fairly confident that the home team Detroit was gonna win Tampa Bay was just a step a downgrade from from Detroit and Tampa Bay needed a lot of things to go well to kind of pull off the upset on the road in their second weekend in the playoffs I think now I feel like it's the same thing for San Francisco like San Francisco is just that much better, right? And so for Detroit to win you need some breaks. You need to not have turnovers You need to be really efficient on offense. You need to have your defense regressed to the mean Can it happen sure it can definitely happen, but is it likely to happen? I don't really think so I expect San Francisco to move on here Yeah, and as mentioned before San Francisco is minus seven right now minus 120 You said your numbers had six and a half So probably not taking the side with the Niners here any bets that do stand out to you for Lions versus Niners Yeah, you know earlier this week and kind of said that I would be interested in Detroit plus seven and a half And I and I do think it might get there then I was kind of looking at the Niners pass rush versus Detroit's offensive line and Detroit's offensive line kind of some holes in the middle so Frank Ragnar was kind of banged up and Jonah Jackson is out the guard For San Francisco You kind of think the the sacks all come from the edge because they have Nick Bosa But their interior guys are actually really good at rushing the passer They have the the two best pass rush grades besides Bosa on the team. So I don't think that is a good matchup I think golf could be under a lot of pressure. I think they're gonna have to get the ball out quick Which they usually do But because of that matchup, I'm like, I don't know. I'm not I'm not sure I'm interested in Detroit plus seven and a half anymore Yeah, and I agree with your assessment that we probably will get there Given that it's minus 120 on the minus seven right now. I think we will get there Now this is a pretty significant shift But I understand the foul process here too because this is a game that could has like spiral-esque potential If they get down if they're able to kind of pin their ears back and really let that pass rush cook That could be an issue for Jared golf. So I the over in this game when it was at 50 and a half I don't see any value anymore And I definitely would not bet it because 51 is a key number and I have concerns when it was 50 and a half It's fine. I know it's only one number or one one point But like that makes a big difference to get a win of 51 versus a loss now on 51 So I think with where the markets at it's it's a stay away Hopefully you got the 50 and a half earlier on this week. I think that was a good bet But with where it's at right now, I I would have pretty my concerns around golf and the offense would be amplified With where things stand right now. Good thing is there's very little wind three miles per hour for Sunday in the forecast So I think that's beneficial But I agree with your assessment that markets pretty efficient right now and I see no value on the side either I've got this at 7.1. I believe yes 7.1. So pretty efficient market with earth where things stand right now Alright, that's all we got for today Ed as always a delight to have you on the show I was gonna ask you what she had going on the power rank this week But I already checked out your football analytics show podcast with Drew Dinsick from yesterday always a delightful guest For those who have not listened yet. What do you and Drew go through for the championship conference championships? Yeah, he gave me a bunch of bets. So that was awesome. Obviously went through the two games and You know his perspective and his numbers are a little different from mine So I highly recommend going and checking that out at the the football analytics show Also, I asked him about his biggest takeaway from the season which I which I thought was pretty interesting as well general thoughts about how you can still find value in a very Analytics centric betting market, right? So yeah, check that out wherever you get your podcasts and five Nugget Saturdays still going strong. Correct. Absolutely. Yeah, five Nugget Saturday I Usually I threw most of the season I put You know, there's usually like two bets in there of the Nuggets They usually end with a little bit of humor and put some analytics in there Really really been pushing for like three bets through the playoffs We'll try to continue to do that through the next three weeks. Obviously with a lot of Super Bowl props and things like that so Yeah, five Nugget Saturday is my sports betting newsletter as I like to say if you're looking for any action on any given weekend This is the free service for you. So check that out at the power rank calm All right, and find the podcast is drew by searching for the football analytics show find at on Twitter at the power rank I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis. You can find me on threads at Jim dots on us And you can check out fan dual research on Twitter at fan dual research We are back once again tomorrow talking some player props with JJ Zacharyson an EPL with Austin Cast We'll talk to all of you then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network