 Good afternoon everybody, this is Jasper Lawler speaking. I hope nobody's missing that hour that we lost out on. We're now in the summertime. So we just got the risk warning screen in front of us. We're going to zoom through that and then get started with the webinar. Any questions at any time? Certainly feel free to put a quick message through the chat or Q&A box and I'm happy to go into that more detail. Probably towards the end of the webinar, which is expected to be about half an hour long, so finishing about 12.45 BST. Markets all look pretty strong this morning. If we can look in the rear view mirror a bit before we get into things, just looking back to last week, very much dominated by the outlook from the Federal Reserve and we had a couple of key data points, namely the GDP, especially on Friday and the durable goods. Well, in the last couple of weeks we've had some important data from the U.S. The point here being that the data on the whole has not been quite as impressive as some had hoped from the U.S. still seemingly on the up and definitely diverging from the rest of the world, which is slowing down. But nevertheless, putting in some question marks over whether the Fed is likely to actually hike rates in June this year. A big one was on Friday right at the end of the U.S. trading. I'm hoping by the time all of us were well past our weeks, finished with our weeks trading, you know, as around 9 p.m. GMT, she made a couple of interesting statements. I think probably the most important of which, and part of why we're seeing a good rally on the open here in Europe, part of the explanation for the rally in Asia and why U.S. markets finished a bit more positively on Friday, just because what she sort of said was that even though the expected direction of rate hikes is higher, it could in fact slow down in terms of how quickly they hike rates thereafter, and it could even pause, and it could even reverse course. So in a way, tacitly just opening the doors should the U.S. economy substantially slow down, tacitly opening the door for even QE back on the table. So that's a real bonus for markets because it's just a win-win scenario. Either the economy expands or the Fed's got the back by reversing course on their current drive to Titan monastery policy and just loosening it again. So the Fed's got the markets back, is the message that's being received at the moment. And it's part of why we're seeing close to 100 points to be gained on the open for the U.S. there. So we have a quick look at that chart while we are discussing the U.S. Here's the situation. That's the daily chance. Quickly look at the weekly. So again, just looking back to where was our last kind of key breakout high and where might support be found. As you can see, this breakout beyond this, there is the correction. Here is the prominent breakout from it. And we've been holding above the top of this area for a while. This was a rather ominous week last week. But we're pulling back again off that area. So this is just about a bearish and golfing candlestick, which is generally pretty negative for the market. And it is coming right off the all-time highs. So that weekly chart might lend you to believe that there's going to be a bit of a steeper correction to come. But the picture is not so clear when you drop down to the... Well, it's clear, but in the opposite direction. When you get to the daily chart whereby we've got this rising trend line, it's only got a couple of key points before meeting our current area. So not the strongest. Nonetheless, in combination with this previous load, let's see that spike below before. And then we've broken above the highs of these two candlesticks here, zoom in a bit, as of today. So we've basically got a false break lower, ran a bunch of stops beneath the market here, and then pushed the market right back up again. And now we're moving up into the territory of that steep loss that we saw last Wednesday. Now, this is one of those times when I think this is a nice little setup here where we've got this hammer pattern. And we've had the break above the peak of that hammer. And we're holding this trend line, and we've got that false breakout, which is where the hammer took place. And we've got some support on the RSI here. You can see this 40 level has been absolutely key, or just a bit under, maybe 38-ish. And we're pulling off away from there. But I am slightly worried by the fact that we've made a lower high here, not made able to push through to new highs. I mean, that can happen if you're doing a sort of ABC correction and off to new highs. That certainly can happen. You know, that's the sort of thing that happened here. Got to move down a lower high. Could have been very worrying. Did drop below, but found support eventually and then pushed higher. So probably you could almost assume that is probably what can somehow work out, maybe not with this being the final low, but eventually you would think maybe within this demand area from the weekly chart we are going to eventually push up to new highs. That would be the default assumption when you're in an uptrend. You know, don't assume the trend's going to reverse because they tend to last longer than you could ever imagine. This major bull market that we're in being the prime example. But all that being said, I'm a bit worried about this lower high and that bearish engulfing on the weekly candlesticks I'm. I think there could be some renewed selling interest if we're able to push back up to 18,000 again. I think there might be a few people tempted to sell in around there, which is kind of where we broke through on that large candlestick there. So we've got a $17,900 to get through first. But if you are tempted to sell the market, I think we're looking at how the market is. The highs go all the way up to $18,200. You're risking $200 points if you put an order right in, $18,000. But maybe seeing how the market reacts in that vicinity could lead to some sort of set ups and perhaps a break of this rising trend line deeper into this demand area. Now in terms of data that might trigger that this week, if we are looking at being a bit US focused at the moment, we do have consumer confidence released on Tuesday. Consumers confidence has been one of the strongest aspects of the US economy. And even as retail sales fall down, consumers have still been confident and that's important for a consumption-based economy. But it's actually been pulling off a little bit. In the last two months, I think it's missed expectations. And so if that's on the cards again today, that's probably not a good thing. I would imagine that would be a bad day to us, bad for markets kind of situation. Followed by that, we've got Wednesday for the ISM Manufacturing Report and then importantly on Friday, we've got the NFP report. Now we won't be doing our weekly webinar this time because it is Good Friday and I'm hoping that you're not going to want to watch it then on a Good Friday. So there probably won't be much time, even if we were to do a webinar on Monday, which is obviously also a holiday, US markets would already have digested it on the Monday by the time we had any chance to do it on the Tuesday, which is the next working day and next open day for European markets. So we're probably going to arrive back at the charts on Tuesday, Monday for those trading effects, to already sin a large part of this non-farm payrolls being digested by markets and then it will just be the remnants of which will be digested by European markets when they open on Tuesday. We've got the 295 jobs created in last month's report. So pushing into that 300K mark for a number of jobs created in the US, kind of a bit of a re-strengthening again. I think that will lift expectations a bit, even though the official guesstimate for this NFP is around 250. I think there's going to be a lot of people expecting it to be close up to that 300 again and if we do end up pushing, you know, ending up in around 250, I think that might be viewed as a bit of a disappointment. But it will still be in the region of like enough for the Fed to kind of maintain their hawkish bias towards the rate hike, I think. So that would probably be seen as bad for the market. I would have thought. Now while we're at it, let's have a look at the... This is a similar picture in the US SDX. We've got this rising trend line here. So similar situation. If we do run into the sort of, you know, we're above 2,000, but I think this 2,100, and I've got this, you know, this swing here as a potential area of supply going all the way up into 2,100 up here, could be a place where we set off down towards the rising trend line again. I think that's a risk. And a few people are sort of thinking that the S&P needs to move back down to 2,000 again to collect some more buyers. And you can see that this broken trend line is kind of working at the moment. We've dipped below 50. So all we could be looking at is a retest of the 50 RSI, perhaps corresponding with this price level to a rollover again down to here. Now this, in principle, again is good pattern. Not a false break, but a push off the... Before we even got to the lows. And again, a break higher before Mark is open today. Similar thing, close to a sort of double top type pattern. So if we do get a close below here, keep in mind we've got this rising trend line, but we could drop even further. We could drop the height of this pattern to the downside, which I think would be closer to this 1970 type support. An interesting one is the NASDAQ because the composite has been very close to it. It's all time high. And again, you can recognize the sort of similar features of the false break lower. We've had a literal, not a literal, but pretty close to a double top here, but a false break of that pattern. So a false break of a sort of prominent pattern can often be a good sign. We just need to break through this kind of resistance area first to assume that this is just a consolidation and we're off to new highs. Now if we flip back to UK markets, we were looking a lot stronger earlier in the session, definitely fallen off a bit. I think part of the reason for the strength today is obviously those comments from Yellen last week, but also there's been a lot of speculation in Asia that China is about to ease monetary policy a bit further and maybe even engage in some fiscal type infrastructure type projects. And that would be good for some of the sort of China focused mining and resource companies that are in the UK 100. But definitely falling from grace a little bit in the UK 100. So I've had this rising trend line in place for a while. Well, really just since this peak here, just a notice that we're grinding up against it. It's worked once, it's worked twice. So this may be the end of it, just finding support within our potential area of demand between these two rising moving averages. But obviously the risk is that we slip to the bottom of what could be a rising wedge type pattern. It was kind of interesting that we went from, you can see these patterns do play out because this is a trend line I had before. So that was a little wedge that kind of dropped down. And then this is then a kind of bigger wedge, which if this were to drop then we could be looking back down to 600 again. So we're not quite there yet. Probably assuming that's not going to play out. But if we do drop a bit further, keep in mind we've got the few spikes at this level here, around the 6800, that could attract people. And we're just pushing in. This was the breakout area of the low. So right at the bottom of the demand area down here near the trend line could also spark some demand. And I think it would take probably quite a lot to push below there, given that we've made it above 7000 now. It would be pretty, pretty sad if we dropped right down to 6800 again. It might be a bit hard to recover from that. I think we have maybe entered a new era of above 7000 to stay. But again, that's largely based on sort of the trend maintaining itself. UK data-wise we've got the GDP released tomorrow. That's probably going to have a bigger impact on the pound, I would say if anything, rather than the UK 100. It's the final revision for Q4, so not the most market-moving. Obviously the first revision typically is. But nonetheless, should that be a sort of surprising result, then that could determine whether we drop down to this rising trend line or push up to the top one again. And if we do get up to the top one again before reaching the bottom one, it typically means we're going to push through it. Now that's, well, final index. So this has been a bit of an interesting one. I mean, you can overcomplicate these things sometimes. So over on the daily chart, pretty simple trade on the benefit of hindsight. Here was the peak here, which I've had this line in. Check this out for him. So I pretty much had it in since this peak up here. Came down, found support of the line, and pushing back up. And it seems like now that we've broken this line, seems like a good chance we'll get up to 12, 200 again. So pretty simple stuff with the benefit of hindsight, of course. If you're looking at the daily charts, but you can overcomplicate things if you drop down to the four-hour chart, as I like to do sometimes. So here, this was the original pattern I had in. There's the triangle type pattern there. And we've got the gap below it, open below and drop down. So if you'd trade on the open of that four-hour candlestick, that gap below was a strong pattern. But you would have wanted to have taken your profit before that major possible demand area from the daily chart because that was as much as we got from it. So actually, I had a projection from the height of this candlestick, which projected us down closer to 11,400, which also corresponded with this 50% retracement. So that would have been a profit-target area on this triangle break. So even though the break worked, to my mind, it's failed because it wasn't really worth the break if it was only going to go to there. It really needs to go to be there to be good. So if you are depending on the rigidity of how you target your profits and losses on your trades, this could be a losing trade because your break, going on the break, you're targeting down here, it doesn't reach it, and now we're up through the rising trend line. So even if you had just stopped right up here, you bombed out. So that's unfortunate. But you know, general philosophy that you've got to add towards trading is you never know the direction the market will take. On the next trade, it's really just over a prolonged spate of trades that you hope to get an edge over the market. And one thing to console yourself with a potentially non-reached objective from a pattern like this is that if the pattern does blatantly fail like this, it shows to undo a bearish pattern. It shows a lot of strength in the market. So you've just got to quickly flip your mindset and say, okay, well, this has not worked out. But the market's showing a lot of strength. Let me look for bullish opportunities. And so actually if you've drawn in this line, which I admit to only having done after this rally, you can see actually rather than it being a triangle pattern, it was in fact more of a kind of flag pattern. If it is a flag, maybe you take the pole from down here, then you can project that whole pole up from the breakout area and that pushes up quite a bit higher, probably up to around 1200 or 500 or something. So that potentially could be what we're looking for. We have to get through the peak here. It's a bit of a random number. Was it 12th or 220 first? But I think the nature of this pattern failure, the fact that it could be a bullish flag pattern, you know, do a little reading around the, if you look for those who are not so familiar with various patterns, have a look through our trading smart series to get a handle on kind of pattern failures and pattern objectives and things and their implications. But I think we could be looking good at that. And fundamentally we've still got the ECB QE program. Now I think we've got a bit of a pullback in European markets because the euro got a bit of a rally and part of the benefit to the European economy supposedly is this drop in the euro. And it's the end of the quarter. So you get a lot of kind of fund repositioning towards the end of the quarter. And it has been, it's pretty much the end of the first calendar month of ECB QE. So people are starting to assess how successful has it been to date. I don't think you can really probably judge it at this point. It's not really been going for very long. Okay, so smoothing swiftly on. It just, well, commodities have been big movers recently, particularly oil. We had that massive spike higher after the Saudi-led Yemen strike. So let's have a look at the rent. Now this is a bit of a confusing-looking chart. And again it's one of those where it's really just quite a choppy conditions on the daily chart. So either don't trade oil right now or trade it on a shorter timeframe to get more clarity from it in my opinion. That would take us down to this four-hour chart. Now obviously always keep in mind the kind of significance of daily levels. So we had this, you know, we were coming down. This load didn't play out. We blasted straight through that-ish. Got a kind of hammer off it. You know, at the time I've got rid of it now, but just, you know, you have to get rid of the lines once they show themselves to be important or not get rid of them. But I had this in. Market came down there. Pushed the hammer so that, you know, back towards that level so it was showing some kind of importance. But really these ones proved them all important levels. Now we're kind of based out a little bit there. Got a strong push higher. So then if you drop down to this four-hour chart you can actually see that that push higher took us in towards this what became an effective downsloping trend line. We've got another test. Got a rough sort of rising trend line going on here. And eventually got that breakout, a nice little retracement to give you a low risk entry for a push back off that declining trend line. And we pushed up again keeping in mind the kind of top-down approach to look at these markets. This is our weekly supply area from back here where the market pushed down. Found some support there. That level is still important. And we've got a spike into it. And so this was the kind of Yemen bounce. And then unsurprisingly, markets soon realized that supplies weren't going to be disrupted. A boil out of the Middle East and we dropped right back down to this rising trend line. And then as of the four-hour chart, broken it. To some that might be the trigger to go short the market. To me probably not because it's dropped down a lot. And there's a lot of space for it to bounce in that area. If you are trading breaking trend lines, we just keep in mind what you're doing. It's a sort of momentum trade rather than a kind of swing, selling it from the value type trade. So there's more risk involved but theoretically you'll catch the momentum. It could just dive straight down and you don't have to hang around. But to me probably this is quite a long-standing trend line. I would prefer a daily close below there to symbolize a move back down to the bottom half of the range around 53. One of the reasons that might do that is the tension sort of shifting a bit from Yemen which was pretty short-lived concern to as far as all markets of course, to Iran where they're having sort of pieces, nuclear talks at the moment. If there is some sort of deal struck with Iran and Western nations, that may lead to the lifting of sanctions that have been in place on Iran for a long time and allow them to sell oil to a wider audience. And that would obviously increase global oil supply. Iran are quite a big producer so that's actually pretty significant. And that should this nuclear deal be struck. I would not be surprised if that is the trigger for us actually making new lows in oil. I mean given how much oil is oversupplied in the U.S. at the moment, we just need a little extra supply being produced from OPEC members and that would just really take the oversupply stories to the next level. That's all rather contingent on the strength or not of the U.S. dollar. Okay, let's just have a quick look at gold and silver looking pretty weak today. Back through 1200. Pretty sharp reversal actually. I would have expected, you know, I mentioned in a note that 1200 might be a sort of magnet for prices leading into the non-farm payer support this week. It still may do so but I'm kind of surprised by the extent of the volatility. And it is in part because the U.S. dollar is finding a bit of a bit again. And we've seen iron ore prices which are not very liquid markets. So we at SimC Markets don't offer iron ore but that's just hit six year lows. So, you know, a sharp sell-off from the 55 day moving average, actually didn't really hit the 55, probably hit the 50. And as you can see, I had this area circled. It didn't even take that long to get there. It shows that I had misjudged the momentum just fired straight up and reversed. And so then I think probably coming in, this was a bit of a breakout area. So look at this 170, could hold. Should we get there before NFT? After post-NFP, if it is like a big bullish surprise, maybe plus 300, that would be pretty negative for gold and I think we could be pushing down to the lows again. Help to look at the longer-term picture. And you can see that declining trend line still holding but we're just holding the lows at the moment. So you can see the importance of this flat, a slightly rising trend line going on here. If we get through that, you know, that doesn't necessarily spell the end because you can judge it from that too. But still looking pretty weak in gold up to my mind. I've been focusing a lot on copper but I think big kind of opportunities in that. Well, we are bouncing off this previous peak. So if you believe in, let me see it a bit better from, you know, it's one of those occasions where, yeah, we're bouncing off the previous peak. Looking on the daily chart, you would say, oh, yeah, I want to find the dip in a rising trend. Look at the weekly chart. I personally would not want to be going long against that. That's a big old reversal candle stick idea. And I'd be surprised if that doesn't eventually lead to lower prices. Could get a little bounce up towards the, you know, this, which I believe to be fairly significant resistance. We pushed right through with massive strength up to this supply area. But I think we're probably going to see lower prices. We're kind of, I think we're moving into a trading range. So not quite an uptrend yet. We probably need more support to be found around here to actually push higher again. Maybe China actually instituting some seriously easy monetary policy and some infrastructure projects. That could be the kind of thing to create the demand in copper. But I think they're generally there's a pretty, you know, the housing market over there, which is a primary demand for copper. It's slowing. So I don't think that story is really going to change in a hurry. And eventually copper got a roll over. Again, with all these commodities, pretty dollar-dependent. So running out of time a little bit here, but a quick look at the effects. So this was the peak from post-FMC, just about 10-50, 1-10-50. We basically not got there in three attempts. And now we're rolling over. We're holding the moving average. But it's not looking too promising right now, especially given that bearish engulfing candlestick that we saw as of Thursday last week. Not much of an immediate follow-through. But to me it looks like the bears are coming back in for the euro. It depends how cautious you want to be about that. I mean, I closed the low there. It's almost certainly a difficult situation. We could still hold 105, but, you know, that's still a good potential move. What's that? 108 took 300-odd tips we could go from here. And just if you're wondering what this little bit is. So here this can sometimes be a low-risk way to play bearish engulfing candlesticks, particularly on a daily chart. Because say you want to trade the break, which would be happening, would have happened on Friday. You don't have to ride out some kind of volatility, but, you know, it's the nature of prices break below the low with the bearish engulfing candlestick, you're sure. Alternatively, when the candle's that big, there's often a bit of a pullback into the bodily of the candlestick, and it's often around 50%. So that's why this level looks a bit random in the 4-hour chart, but actually that is the bearish engulfing candlestick as seen on the daily chart. And, you know, I mean, to never put your order right on the 50% fib, because often this little annoying kind of thing will happen, where what's the fib is no 955, and this is, I think, 45, 48. So that would be very frustrating if you put it on the 50, and, you know, that's the thrust of the spread, plus three pips away. You know, these kinds of scenarios, when you're looking for what could be 100 plus pips by now, don't worry about, in my opinion, don't worry about five or 10 pips, better to get in on the trade. So there it is. That's playing out quite well at the moment. I have a similar picture on the pound. The pound just, well, you know, the euro, if you look, if you remember the chart we're just looking at, it got up to here. This is post-FOMC peak. The euro challenged that. The pound did not even push through, basically, really the kind of body of the candle, but I think this was probably the key determinant over here. On a weekly chart, it's a, you know, it's a low, lower low, higher low, so lower low. Again, another lower high from here. Break of the low. Retest of the low. Got a lot of volatility post-FOMC, but didn't manage to close above that low. Almost a false breakout, if you could say that much, and then rolling over. Not looking too good for the pound at all. And, you know, the, it can't even slightly more hawkish than what he said last time, is that they're expecting a rate hike, but he still said that it could be, you know, they're still preparing for a possible rate cut, just as much as a rate hike, and that's what the chief economist Andy Haldane said last week, and that's still showing its face in the pound at the moment. Just a rate hike, really not looking like it's on the table anytime soon in the UK, even though arguably the date was actually better than the US. But there you go, that just shows it's important who's on the board in these central banks. So, yeah, so there we go. So we both need fail to get through to 150, and we're dropping off, and it's looking like a possible one for a breakout of lows. Maybe get a bounce in this area again. But it's not looking promising. A quick one at Euro pound, just to show it again. Here's the supply area is drawn on the chart. Check the chart form. I've had this on for ages. Easy enough. Just that's where we've got the bounce on the weekly chart, and as we come down to the daily chart, you can see again, this one's tricky. Good chance of missing that. You don't want to put your entry too far away from the area. On terms of the way of thinking about this is that, well, okay, if you missed it, again, there's a nice engulfing pattern, bearish engulfing pattern. Look for the retracement and the drop again if you want to run into that trade. Still scope for us to go higher. It's kind of bouncing off this area here. So if you want to go with a short-term trend, we're kind of looking like maybe another retest, but just be aware of moving into that supply area with the euro and the pound. One of the things we've got the ECB account release on Thursday, that could be a market mover. But given that it's going just into the holidays, I would imagine it's probably not. Okay, I hope that was helpful. Didn't see any questions coming in, so I think we'll call it a day there. Thanks a lot, everyone. Just a little signing out.