 Welcome to Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 10th of August with me, Patrick Munley. So Friday's non-farm payrolls job days has supported the narrative of a recovery and US data in the week ahead is expected to do likewise. We should be looking for another rise in the NFIB small business confidence, CPI to drift higher and a slightly above consensus rise in July retail sales. However, we want to be on the lookout for issues with respect to reclosure of parts of the US economy and delays on the stimulus package means that August data released in September will likely take a turn for the worse. Probably more dominant for the dollar will be two key issues, the stalemate and weekend executive order released by President Trump regarding the phase for stimulus plan. And secondly, how does China retaliate to the latest sanctions from the White House, possibly including against Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam? The rally in Asian FX has been helpful to the broader dollar decline, versus a sharp reopening of political tension could favor some dollar consolidation and correction. However, traders are really sinking their teeth into the negative US real yield story ahead of the 16th of September FOMC meeting. And I suspect that any corrected dollar rallies, albeit they could be violent, will probably be short lived. So let's look to the dollar index. We continue to test this 9250 descending trend line support area and once again buy a step back in and we got a bullish reversal into the close on Friday. So whilst we hold 9250, I'm still looking for a test of the monthly pivot and the symmetry swing resistance at 9450. From there I'll certainly be watching to see if we can be bearish reversal patterns on the daily timeframe to set new short positions. However, if we don't find sellers at the 9450, then I'll be looking for a move up to test sending trend line resistance towards the 96th area, again watching for bearish reversal patterns there. The downside would only really be opened up here if we on a closing basis take out 9250 and I think we'll be looking down towards a psychological 90 level. Eurozone data this week includes investor sentiment data for August, July Eurozone industrial production and the first revision of some of the second quarter 2020 GDP data. It seems that sectors outside retail, including the industrial sector, may be a little slower to recover, thus softening the V shape narrative. In all however, the Euro dollar should be dominated by events in Washington and Beijing, including any fed speakers providing any insights into the average inflation target debate. From a technical perspective, Euro dollar continued to test its sending trend line resistance and once again sellers stepped in into the close on Friday and I'm now looking for a move through the 11750 area to open initially a test of 11650. If we don't find buyers at this area, then I'll be looking for a deeper corrective pullback to ultimately test the 115 break point. What I'll certainly be doing there is looking for bullish reversal patterns to set long positions, looking for a move up to ultimately challenge 120 as we head into the back end of the summer. The week ahead in the UK could see some cold water on some of the emerging sterling optimism. Here the focus will be on June employment figures and second quarter GDP. On the form of the markets expect unemployment to rise 4.2% from 3.9%, getting good handle on the employment situation is hard because of the furlough scheme, 12 million having taken advantage of it. But the BOE is eventually expecting the rate, the employment rate to hit 7% plus. On GDP, the market expects 20% quarter over quarter contraction. BOE was slightly more optimistic, so let's see. Any upside surprises to GDP employment story could see sterling squeeze higher again, but from a technical perspective at the moment we're still sitting at this major descending trend line resistance coming at the 13180 area and we saw some selling late Friday here, flipping the daily chart bearish as per the VWAP. If we can get a move through the 130 handle now, I'm looking for a correction back towards 12620 before we may see bias step back in. In terms of the upside, it really needs to see a close above the 32 handle to open further, moves to the upside, ultimately looking for a test of 135. The dollar yen has returned to trading in narrow ranges after some of the recent excitements. A hot topic is the idea of Japanese fund managers doing some of the government's work by buying the dollar yen below 105. The latest Ministry of Finance data did show a pickup in Japanese foreign bond buying, though it's too early to say if that's a sustained trend. What we do know, however, is that if the Fed is successful with its opportunistic inflation exercise, keeping rates low, driving inflation higher, then the dollar yen should be headed higher. Local data sees the June current surplus released. Mark is expecting a new pickup here after a collapse during the crisis. A healthier balance would add to the negative dollar yen story. However, from a technical perspective at the moment, we continued to trade in the upper end of last Friday's big bullish outside reversal pattern. Whilst we hold above 105.30 here, I'm looking for further upside through the monthly pivot at 106 to ultimately target a symmetry swing objective at 108. Finally, in Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting wasn't really a game changer for the Aussie, but the statement on monetary policy released on Friday was characterised by a rather downbeat view of the economic recovery. With the growth forecast for 2020 downgrades to minus 4% and the employment rate seem peaking at 10%. Jobs report this week is the key highlight for the Australian calendar as the rebound in employment is expected to have slowed in July. It will be key to monitor any signs of life in full-time employment. Still, most eyes will be on the developments and the contagion curve in the state of Victoria. From a technical perspective, Australian Dollar took out the prior week's highs at the 72.30 only to see once again sellers set in into the end of the week. What I'll be looking for now is if we can see this momentum divergence that we've got in the momentum sales down here be reflected in price. I'll be looking for follow-through selling below the 71.40 handle to take us down to test symmetry swing support at 69.45. That concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 10th of August and be sure to join me for live analysis session on Thursday at 1pm UK time. That's all for this week. All the best for the week ahead. Thanks very much.