 Okay, very good morning to you. It is Monday 22nd of November. I hope you are doing well and as per usual I'm going to get up to speed and some of the major headlines from the weekend and we're going to talk about the week ahead in particular It's a holiday shortened week because I got Thanksgiving on Thursday in the States Which means it's a market holiday and that means then at Friday normally as a shortened trading session as well So a lot of the economic data from the US is concentrated on Wednesday Which we'll talk about more in a moment But let's have a look at the charts to start with and have a look at the overall sentiment for this morning and equity index futures continue to reside up and around these record levels that we saw at the close of Last week. So despite kind of a pivot to some slightly more hawkish commentary coming out of a variety of federal reserve officials The fact that we have some decent data and as well we had some strong Retailers come out with some positive learnings updates. They help bump us up there. Their question mark remains then Further catalysts likely to come as I said on Wednesday whether or not we can stay at these elevated levels Otherwise as far as this morning is concerned We do have a slightly firmer dollar up around just over one tenth of one percent So it's weighing it's just a little bit on the major pairs cable relatively unchanged on the session but euro dollar is down about 16 pips Perhaps explainable the slight underperformance in the euro on one of the stories we'll talk about in a moment Which is covet 19 and the response turning more violent for protests across europe To more onerous lockdowns because of the covet case spikes. We're seeing at the moment across the mainland So euro dollars down about 16 to 20 pips albeit has stabilized a little bit from apac lows And then elsewhere t-notes and gold lower amid the Moderate dollar strength So us yields a little bit firmer the 10 year down eight and a half ticks gold down six bucks oils pretty much unchanged trading us close to a 76 dollar handle And that's pretty much the flavor of the morning But getting straight into it then so as you can see here and as per the headline in the ft europe's protests against covet 19 curbs spread to brussels On sunday with tens of thousands of demonstrators marched through the city and protests that later turned a little bit more violent Demonstrations followed the second night of rioting in the netherlands on saturday over the reintroduction of coronavirus restrictions and protests also broke out As you can imagine in austria, which starts its national lockdown for the next 20 days for everyone as of today And we also saw protests as well happening. It's lean creature over the weekend so yeah for sure this I guess a necessary measure given the government's decisions following the cases that we've been seeing you can see here looking at daily new confirmed covet 19 cases if you're looking at a seven-day rolling average And austria way up there followed by the netherlands then island So just scrolling through these at the top netherlands island, then you get to greece uk and then germany which has been accelerating at its highest level since the actual outbreak of the the pandemic in itself Since the beginning of march of 2020 france portugal also seeing upticks probably the latter The height of the incline is a little lower just given much higher Vaccination take up then save for example germany which currently resides under 70 percent at the moment So yeah, that was that was all over the weekend And certainly warrants monitoring further going forward And as per what we've seen the last week or two Explains underpins a little of that rationale of that policy divergence with the likes of the fed and the bank community getting More hawkish dcb remaining static because of these aforementioned reasons and inflation not being as hot In those other areas as well Meaning that the euros had a bit of a rough ride of late against the us dollar Before I go on to the other stories just a reminder. 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I think it makes a lot that makes complete sense Something that peers and I have talked about in the podcast before these are supply side based issues that are really promoting the inflationary pressures It doesn't go really a great deal of a way to help Providers is many more greater clarity. I'd say from from the governor's stance, which still remains at this point A bit indecisive of real clarity and so markets still aggressively pricing for that december rate hike and further subsequent Inclines thereafter in in rates Otherwise just jumping us where geopolitically you might have read a few headlines about Russia and ukraine So just to get up to speed in what exactly has been going on. This isn't really a brand new thing We've been commenting on it for a couple of weeks. It's just that the us have now shared intelligence Including maps with european allies that shows a build-up of russian troops and artillery To prepare for a rapid large-scale push into ukraine from multiple locations If vladimir putin decides to invade according to people familiar with the conversation, so before the us were quite Quite aggressive with their rhetoric with russia in positioning itself more likely for further sanctioning And they had kind of splintered away from the europe where merkel was having actually talked directly with putin And we know germany's dependency on gas flows coming from that region So now the us has come forward and just provided more more clarity and intel on the on the matter Is what this latest development is in terms of Two sides putin and biden so putin. He sees ukraine as part of russia Hence the kind of 2014 the annexation of crime area in russia and all the tensions that happened several years ago And he does not like the outreach that ukraine has had with the west, especially with military engagement with nato And on the flip side for biden the actions of of putin are kind of tricky on multiple fronts for one They're going to test his administration's appetite to intervene Militarily again in foreign affairs or foreign shores And if you think about it, we've just had a very messy exit coming out of afghanistan Probably the last thing he needs In terms of his political favorability, which has been declining is to now jump into a russia-ukraine situation Which really doesn't carry too great a sway with the american voter at the ballot at the ballot box Biden has to focus more One would think from a strategy perspective on political strengths on domestic priorities like his economic agenda Dealing with what's happening with rising gas prices for the consumer Things like that. And so yeah, it's a tricky one again And just goes to show the multiple fronts that that biden's challenged with at the moment going forward The other thing from the weekend then is the pboc I don't find this incredibly surprising at all But the latest being that we've had some communication out of the central bank where the chinese Have said they signal possible easing measures to aid the economy's recovery after a sharp recent downturn that we've had and also the impacts and sentiment from the property slump The thing that people are looking at from the comms from the central bank is the omission of key phrases Which basically is not saying they're going to do something But the lack of talking about the way they're describing the economy in certain ways Would suggest that potentially more easing is on the way. It's something to just be aware of As far as the calendar is concerned for this week As I said, we do have Thanksgiving holiday in the us meaning a shortened week A lot of the u.s data is concentrated on on wednesday But before we get to the data one of the things of course that we're looking out for is the end outcome of Biden's decision does he go with brain art or power? And so the latest here is that he's expected to reveal his nomination for fed chair this week The latest reports would suggest an announcement is due before Thanksgiving. So no set day or time just in the coming days We're going to be looking out for this and the likelihood is we'll get sources and rumors and things like that in the build up So do be on the lookout Most accept that the choice is between just these two candidates So there's really no one else In the running and power is tipped as the slight favorite as far as the bedding holds are concerned at the moment And let's write that some democrats have expressed concerns over the recent fed investment disclosures You remember there's been a really bad pr job for power himself and the fed given a number of federal reserve officials have been seen to be Taking out slightly dubious stock positions Let's say or investment opportunities ahead of then major policy announcements, which is definitely Bad practice to put it lightly And that's that's impacted pal's Credibility a little bit and there's also been quite a bit of talk about pal's lack of green Credentials, which is obviously a big part of the agenda for president biden And those would be key considerations among more progressive democrats pal's oversight of banks has also been cited as a bit of concern Brainard is seen to be slightly tougher on that issue Meanwhile, brainard is seen as more dovish option Which some lawmakers might find a little bit concerning though given the context of the economic climate right now Which is obviously rampant inflation in the us tracking at 6.2 percent the highest in 31 years So that's the trade-off a little bit. She might be deemed a little bit more tighter on the Regulatory front He might look a little bit more equipped to deal with then The current economic climate with inflation because of her more kind of dovish disposition But at the same time again, the green credential element green credential element is kind of not that she is but he's she's He's probably less or so in that sense So that's what they're weighing up and obviously it comes in the context of well We'll be keeping close eye on fed speak because at the end of last week we had vice chairman richard querida We've also had the hawks. So like people like walla and bullards. They've all signaled the topic potentially at the next fed meeting in december about Accelerating tapering given what we've just mentioned on inflation And certainly at the moment we've had rate rises being pulled in closer We've had a number of big banks jp I think city credit sui's gs. They've all brought forward now their right hike kind of timing In terms of for next summer generally speaking And now there's been some more hawkish commentary as well coming from these fed members So we'll look out for more clarity of any speeches this week But going back to the calendar then monday today is pretty quiet overall something too much going on European flash consumer confidence figures coming out this afternoon. You've also got the german coalition report suggests over the weekend They could There could be an agreement to be attained as early as today or tomorrow So is it the formation of their coalition? I wouldn't be looking for any immediate intraday market reactions on the back of that though But just just so you're aware tuesday is kind of the main Data point as far as eurozone is concerned But more broadly we get the global so eurozone france, germany, uk, us market Flash pmi data points for service and manufacturing for the month of november These are always potentially market moving. They unexpectedly showed improved growth momentum in october And while analysts are expecting a bit of a deceleration in november a positive surprise Might feed into expectations and whether the bank of england will increase interest rates in december Which they're leaning towards at the moment Also, you've got german flash gdp coming out tomorrow morning as well So on wednesday that's really where it's at as far as the scheduled calendar events are concerned So rbnz rate decision and german ifo aside. It's very much a stateside focus In the evening we get the us f mc minutes They obviously could be quite interesting given the commencement of tapering we had at that november third meeting Then we also get the pce data So kind of the preferred measure that the fed like to look at to gauge inflationary conditions So while us pc for october will be monitored for further signs of price pressures following the heightened cpi reading To remind you pce data Reflects changes in household expenditures A subsection of the data known as core pce Which discounts the effects of volatility of food and energy sectors is the one that's going to be particularly Closely scrutinized by the market when it comes out on on wednesday on the same day as well. We also get GDP coming out of the us You can see here us q3 second estimate. So it's not the advanced. It's the preliminary reading So potentially slightly less impactful than the first reading But analysts at ing are looking for a modest modest upward revision But the october personal spending will be more significant as it can tell us a little bit more As to how the kind of consumer is feeling in terms of personal spending going into the fourth quarter Home sales numbers are not expected to be Move much on the month. That's also coming at the same time But the increase in the home builder sentiment suggests biotraffic is on the rise and that should live housing activity into the new year And then weekly us jobless claims. I know they're written down here on thursday. It's actually coming out wednesday So that's a mistake on this calendar And everything will be coming on that same day given the market closure that we'll see on thursday And then just skipping over to friday Pretty quiet overall as I said, there'll be a short and trading session as well in the us So most traders typically stateside would just take off Friday and have the extended run into the weekend There's obviously a lot of travel that goes on In north america through the thanksgiving weekend. So friday could be quite quiet You do have bankoming then chief economist hu pill gives a speech on the economic outlook at the cbi Could be of interest given His more kind of hawkish commentary of late and as people look for more guidance on the potential for a deck Rate hike. So that is really it. So pretty slow calendar start to the day Really the main action is going to really peak Tuesday and wednesday The PMIs on tuesday and that whole batch of us data coming on wednesday Is is what the the look of the land is at the moment But that is it. I'm going to leave it there Any questions at all, feel free to drop me a comment Don't forget to like and subscribe to the video in the channel Be much appreciated and check out amplify me dot com. All right. Take care. See you tomorrow