 And now we get to talk to our man Teddy Kegstad as we do each and every Wednesday at 40 past the hour. Folks, head on over to the front page of TFNN under the newsletter tab. You'll see the Tiger Forex report by our man Teddy. You can check that out for only $97 a month. You got issues each week on Monday morning. Updates throughout the week when warranted as each newsletter we have folks 30 day money back guarantee. You got nothing to risk. And it is a great time man as we've got things rocking yet again as we talk to our man Teddy. Teddy Kegstad. Teddy Kegstad. Good morning. Lots of good moves and a little bit of divergence coming up today. What do you want to talk about first? I want to talk about it all man. Where do we kick things off? So maybe on the yield conversation we got some private payrolls of course this morning. Yields you've taught us so well. Such an important component of course with where currency drive seems like at least in the U.S. that the trend is we got some higher yields man. We got wage data that is accelerating. We have some Fed speak out there today. The conversation seems to be shifting yet again with maybe less cuts than the markets looking for. We got the tenure now above 4.4 percent. Maybe we kick it off there. Well, I have to say I guess I got it right. For months I've been going against the news and the media and everybody calling for multiple rate hikes. At one point they were looking for seven cuts rather and then it got dropped down to finally three which then got pushed out to the summer and now we're going towards and I've been saying I'm like you know before you get to gung-ho on all these rate cuts you know you got to follow the economic numbers and the reality is inflation never left and it's kicking its heels up in a big way and I think it's going to really come roaring back over the course of the next like six months for sure and if that's the case you know a quarter point let's say that they even do two cuts. We've had this conversation a point a cut one already a quarter point for sure is factored in the market already. Almost two quarter points which means almost a half a point. If that's the case we only really have, we've already set the ceiling which means that if you wanted to refinance you got your shot already. You're not going to get a better shot you know so get back to that reality and that means that higher yields lower pricing you know it's going to be a big deal it's going to probably shore up the dollar a little bit and that's you know without the you know it's being market driven that's without the Fed doing anything you know and the fact that they're becoming less likely to cut as much as was originally expected by the consensus that means globally that the central banks are all going to be looking at that. It's going to have an impact on a lot of currencies it means now like for instance the US dollar Japanese yen you know oil is making making new highs yields are now going higher once again what's the BOJ going to do even if they intervene how much of an impact is it going to have on the end not much unless they go on a really aggressive tear with raising rates and I if that happens the Empire is definitely crumbling you know over there so and I don't think that's going to be a topic of our conversation in the future. You know I chuckle a little bit man but you've had some great calls outstanding kudos man because this market as it plays out it is pretty remarkable how the market has gotten so far ahead of where it deserved to be and hide side of course is 2020 but it is pretty remarkable that as we continually shift forward three and six months the conversation just keeps changing and those cuts keep getting pushed back you had Rafael Bostic saying one cut at the end of the year right now and like you said I mean where do we go from there man and that waged out of this morning 10% for job changers were still above 5% for people staying in the same job and that's off of numbers over the last couple years you know you're doing 7% you're doing 8 now you're still doing 5 and those 5% numbers are based off of the numbers of last year which are up 12 or 13% over the prior two years from that and so it's it's pretty remarkable we got some hot job jobs dad a little bit today and we get that big number on Friday but yeah and I appreciate you jump into the yen that was going to be the next one we are now above I got it up right now in the think-or-so platform as I'm talking to you we're almost pushing highs that we saw a week ago when I was talking to you and you had the drop off from that high of 151 97 about we dropped all the way to 150 102 on my chart and we are right now back at 150 192 that entire drop off gets wiped out for people looking to the yen I know you've given us some of your analysis you always do a great job in the Tiger 4x report man I always make sure I check that out on Monday mornings for people watching the end I know it's an important component pretty remarkable what gold has been doing even with the yen where it is but obviously more components in gold than just the end but what are your feelings kind of risk-reward right now as we're approaching some of the weakest levels we've seen and you laid out the case but any price levels for those traders out there looking at the end yeah I can see a spiking around the 153 half area right now today we're making new highs now there is a little bit of divergence going on today you know you got to realize that yields are right rising oils rising but the dollar index is pulling back today you know the euro is up you know so I mean and this is off of the you know it's I look it as a profit-taking move you know the trend no matter what you're coming off of new highs in the dollar index meaning new lows in the euro US dollar off of yesterday you know so what I think you're seeing as a profit-taking move so I'd be careful you know I said this before like I'm bullish the US dollar yen I'm looking to buy breaks on it I'd be very careful selling above this area you know I'm really a happier seller at a 153 half and I would be at right now at 150 you know 193 152 you know I think you can get squeezed that way you know if you're gonna try and fade that market I would be very cautious with that if you're gonna do that try and high ball it more than low ball it you know and as far as you know being a bull I'd look to buy breaks I'd be careful buying the area where you're at because you're in the chop zone so yours you're it's all about your time value of money there where you can be up a little down a little you're going nowhere with that position you know what I mean so if we get back down towards the 150 area and especially if yields are still strong and oils high it's a great buy you know that's where you want to look at it then you can look at it as a profit-taking correction and look to buy you know for some solid support there and then maybe trade in the range I think we're gonna be probably trading in a range with the end between 148 and 153 over the next few months unless we have a major move in interest rates or oil so if we see oil above 100 you know getting to 110 and if you see yields really pushing you know higher levels well then you can see the yen up at 155 156 or even 158 and over the next few months then you're gonna probably have BOJ intervention but once again what is kind of impact is that really gonna have yeah it won't have any especially with I'm sorry with ours you know being pushed out with our Fed no I was just gonna say you can't be bigger than the market sometimes like you say man no matter what they do if the forces are behind it I love the way that you give us those exact clear levels for Teddy it's great man and you jump to crude I just want to get a little take man crude talk about higher prices man we've been talking about a bit 85 77 you gave some of those numbers right there in in the yen and I know you even last week you walked us through so well the fundamentals of that crude market you referenced it right now talking about the yen the dollar etc but any price levels for the crude traders out there as we're looking at a higher highs and higher lows basically since the end of last year right now well today we hit their upside target number one we had the critical resistance zone that I had in the forex report that we were bobbling in the last week and a half over the past few sessions we've gone from the bottom of that band all the way up to the top part and breached it yesterday with the clothes above it and now we hit this target it's a strong area if we get above one basically 86 bucks we're going up to 91 baby I love it folks check out the tiger forex report you heard the clarity that Teddy delivers man Teddy thank you so much for the nine minutes man I look forward to talking next week brother take care Tommy see you next week have a great one folks will be right back stay tuned