 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical Analysis if you're new a warm welcome to you and if you're returning an equally warm welcome back to you And if you find my videos useful every week, please don't forget to like subscribe and share liking the video Really does push the videos up in the in the search rankings and gets this quality information out To really the traders that need it, so please help and support the channel by liking and Subscribing and our approach at trading 180 is really to combine fundamental and technical analysis if you're struggling with the technical analysis alone then You know fundamental analysis, you know the aim of fundamental analysis is to really determine whether Currency and exchange rate is is expensive Cheap or at fair value and error forces actually at work Beyond the technical chart, you know prices price action is not king whether you disagree With that, you know, this is just the facts price action is not king price action is manipulated But what can't be manipulated over time is Value and understanding when for example a central bank is cutting rates and one is hiking rates You want to really, you know buy the the currency where the central bank is hiking rates. There's no technical analysis that's going to stand in the way of You know central bank movement risk sentiment movement, for example, it just doesn't happen So we want to combine our fundamental bias and what we think is a bargain area release fair value And then look for the technical strategies for example supply and demand Strategies that we employ to look for buy trades. So starting off this week and looking at the week ahead fundamentally what's coming up is Inflation updates from the US China and India will be keenly watched in the coming week alongside the UK Norway and Malaysia fourth-quarter GDP figures US and Australia consumer sentiment Germany and India industrial output and Japan current account with Producer prices central banks in Sweden, Philippines and Mexico and Russia will be deciding on interest rates So really the main news for them for the major currencies are going to be inflation updates for the US Alongside the UK fourth-quarter GDP figures not too concerned about US and Australia consumer sentiment and And and Japan current account is also You know something to keep your eye on as current account really is like trade balance and it has really a direct effect on GDP Whether you're in a deficit or a surplus. So those are the things that we're going to be looking at this week Or the news that's coming out this week. So getting into The the fundamentals and technicals when it comes to the major currencies like the dollar We're going to go to the charts and See where we are technically and see if we can marry this with some of my fundamentals and get our directional bias And on the dollar I've been saying this for the past couple of weeks that I wanted to get Long short term on the dollar. This is the dollar index Which is just a measure of dollar strength of against the basket of currency currencies like the euro the yen The pound the Australian dollar, etc. And I expect and you can check last week's Videos that I would probably see a stronger dollar and that's pretty much what's happened This week. So you're seeing higher highs and higher lows being made and And Really what all this it's just understanding that you want to look for confluences with dollar index So if your dollar index pulls back and you want to get long fundamentally then You know that adds, you know confluence same thing if you're looking for any kind of short trades on the dollar Yeah, look for Confluence on the dollar index and the dollar index from a technical analysis perspective. So looking at the The the dollar fundamentally the dollar morphs into a risk on currency and made us growth hopes so recently you've had the GDP come out as positive and you've also had I think jobs has been was was a bit better than expected So greenbacks inverse correlation with socks has been weakening and the dollar sees biggest drop in three weeks following US jobs data so hopes for the US economic recovery seem to be transforming the dollar from a safe haven asset to a risk on currency of choice So that the dollar does kind of fleet between a risk on a risk of currency depending on what traders would I guess they're mood and really from a risk on perspective you would expect it to In the in the short term anyway and the reason why is because it's got a high interest rate or high interest rate a weak dollar actually helps GDP growth so and it helps exports so which is basically what you're seeing that play out So there is some strong sentiment around that and a few few weeks ago Maybe about two weeks ago in the you know private discord coaching room I did say on the 27th of the 4th of January that I've been reading a few articles that seem And there seems to be a bit of a shift between buying euros and selling the dollar in the short term So one to three months period it looks like Europe is lagging behind the US in terms of the vaccine rollout Therefore projections for GDP will also lack so for the short term I'm looking to see if there are buying opportunities for the dollar as long as data supports my bias So that's what I was talking about back on the 27th So the data to look for is growing GDP for the US and lagging for the euro easy But you're potentially being forced to do something about the unwanted strength of the euro as well So we go, you know, we have a euro zone channel where we post our fundamental analysis and And basically this means that they may have to find the way to weaken the euro because strengthening currency does Is is not advantageous. It hurts Economic growth and expensive currency. So the Federal Reserve has been winning the currency war So currency devaluation over the past six months But that is now translating into potential growth for the US economy So again any positive GDP and inflation news from the US supports the dollar by bias for the short term again Short term being one to three months. Of course, this is not financial advice And I said I'll cover it in the evening's court, which I did do so the the guys in our private members room had the heads up And you can see what's pretty much happened since the 27th on a price chart so the 27th was probably somewhere around Here so you can pretty much see 27th of January Around here and you can see the dollar has indeed gone to the upside So it was really dollar buyers. So now we can potentially look for pullbacks If you want to be a you know a dollar bull in the in the next one to three months If you still think that the dollar may You know Sell off then look for you know Confluence of the dollar sells if prices do come back into the supply zone Overall the dollar is actually when you look at the last years price action You can pretty much see where it is at Really a low and this could be seen as a potential bargain area for the dollar overall so Interesting times again, I'm probably more more bullish on the dollar now in the short term but medium to long term bearish so looking towards the Dollar yen and you can pretty much again see the dollar again as I say there's no technical analysis in the world That's gonna stand in front of fundamental and risk sentiment analysis You can draw all the supply zones all of the resistance zones you want if you're not on the right side Fundamentally, then you know, you're just gonna keep losing so You know we would you know looking at dollar and I was saying to again the guys in the group from long dollar It's gonna get be against the one of the currencies gonna be against the Japanese yen We're in a risk on environment Again doesn't do well in a risk on environment and you've pretty much seen what has happened So it's now just looking for pullbacks for me anyway against the demand zones We've got some of my few supply zones lingering probably around quite a large area of supply around here But that's pretty much you know where we are looking for maybe some sort of pullback into a zone Before looking at any kind of long trades or if prices do make higher highs and then pull back into a nice Demand zone before looking at getting long. That's the way I would I would play this for now But if risk sentiment does change, let's say for example You know, there is a lot of uncertainty And we're really when you're looking to trade the Japanese yen You really want to see the stock market sell off and not just sell off You want to see the narrative as well as to why it's telling off and if there was a lot of fear Then this is actually a really nice place to get short on the on the Japanese yen against the dollar But for now I think with global growth the vaccine rollout trade and risk on sentiment I think any pullbacks in the short term are going to be really nice by opportunities for the dollar the US dollar and Moving on to the dollar yen. I'm sorry dollar Swiss and again similar Similar scenario and again the guys in the group know that I've been long on this currency pair since probably the beginning Of the year I was saying that if I'm gonna get long on the dollar It's gonna be you know against the Swiss Frank It's pretty much seeing what's happened against any kind of pullbacks for me Yeah, and if prices come back down into this zone is eighty zero point eight eight eight nine area and we still have you know bullish Dollar sentiment then that for me is a nice Potential buy if you're looking at getting short again, the Swiss Frank does better in a risk-off environment You want to see prices really kind of just come up into that zero point Zero point nine oh four seven area before looking at getting short Because sentiment can change obviously that's the first area He would really want to look for any kind of short trades, but keep your eye out on the On the The risk sentiment and really the news overall moving on to the Dollar cad and the dollar cad has been a bit of a tough one again to trade the cad I'm probably more bullish on the on the cad than I am on the dollar But there are reasons to be actually bullish again dollar and I think the Canadian Inflation rate is actually a negative from month-on-month perspective So that actually an expensive Canadian dollar isn't great So you could actually see prices start to come up I think in the short term we if prices do come down into this lower end this zero point So it's one point two six area I think that's a really nice buy for the US dollar against the cad any short trades around here are decent as well Put he say the high of this area his it's one point 295 and even into this round number this one point 30 round number I think a decent zones to look for any kind of long trades. I think the again after this Quite a long down trend. We should see, you know, probably some sort of ranging market and let's see which one I mean, it's not really my pair that I'm really looking at trading at the moment simply because there are better trades and easier trades to take Moving on to the New Zealand dollar US dollar and I had a really good trade in the group Earlier this week. It was a CPR wasn't really a A daily supply and demand trade even that was it was more of an intraday supply and demand trade But prices have been, you know chopping round between this supply and this demand zone In fact, let me let me go back to the group and find the trade that I called So here we are on the third of February we had a bit of a capture paint relief trade looking for Prices to come down into that zero point between that zero point seven one six and zero point seven one four Area where there would have been demand breakout traders and retracement traders caught offside as price fell to continue lower This is a strategy that we use Consistently as well in the in the group the traders in here are absolutely loving this and As we go to the actual Price chart, you'll see in fact what had happened. Let's go down to 30 minute and What we saw from an intraday perspective was this area here as a nice Demand zone right there that was it So we called this trade It was again between this zone here and this zone The high of that zone to lower that zone. You can see prices came into the demand zone Lovely move to the upside. So that trade worked out really nice on that but from a Daily trade Perspective let's go back to the daily and we're in a bit of just this this range I would say probably the best area to look for any kind of long trades would be down into a fresher area of demand also be here as well this 1.71 round number, but I'd probably prefer Anything pretty bit below that before looking at getting Long if you're looking at short trades again, I probably look for a fresher area of supply before looking at going Short again this currency pair is too, you know, fairly strong currencies The New Zealand dollar has been doing really well recently overall I think the general consensus is for a higher New Zealand dollar exchange rate, but I think a pullback into a deeper zone would be more advantageous and Moving on to the pound dollar and a pound dollar Has literally just gone from shrimp to shrimp not necessarily the best, you know Chart to really kind of trade them very very Just kind of this sideways choppy movement But we did have some interesting fundamental news that came out So Bank of England sees rapid UK a rebound with Johnson's vaccine push so again the overall Consensus is for a global recovery and the the currency that Vaccinates its population the quickest is due for an economic rebound, you know the fastest, right? But also on the horizon potentially Is negative interest rates so again a lot of mixed signals with regards to the pound so? As much as there is positive Vaccine news and the vaccine rollout news the Bank of England could eventually start to activate negative interest rates again when we look at you know the again the same and the same this is these are all Articles of the on the same day before February so the Bank of England tells banks to get ready for negative rates Possibilities that the banks need at least six months to get the system up to speed and Bank of England stresses it is not sending a signal It is not sending a signal the policy is imminent, so I do think they're trying to talk down the strength for the euro if you go I'm sorry jump for the pound. I think that the pound is very expensive And in fact like I keep saying is that and a strong pound a rising pound doesn't doesn't help The economy a weaker exchange rate is actually Advantages, so I think what they're trying to do is trying to talk down the pound So if the market buys the rumor, which it doesn't look like they are at the moment Right because trade is no longer see and again This is all the 4th of February said trade is no longer see Negative rates even as BOE readies for them So money markets expect UK rates to stay above zero in 2020 into 2022 and bets on Cuts have shifted as vaccine rollout lifts sentiment. So again The central bank and Andrew Bailey is is trying to weaken the pound I think by telling Traders that they're ready for it, but whether the traders believe the Bank of England is something different So very very mixed signals at the moment extremely mixed signals that the pound is a bit of a tough one I think More for now, I'm sitting on the sidelines with the pound and until things do become clearer and traders really start to factor in bets That they are going to start to cut rates potentially either to zero or to the negative I think for me I might have to sit on the sideline on on the pound or really just Just watch the pound for now again. There are easier trades out there eat much easier fundamentals out there so that's where we are with the With the pound Looking at this from a pullback perspective I probably would expect some sort of pullback at some point again if we're looking for supply zones There's really nothing until we get to the 140 area. There are for a lot of forecasts That that do talk about the pound actually reaching the 140 area And I do think that if the pound does reach the 140 area, I think there'll be a lot of Profit-taking going on and that may be a decent shorting opportunity But I want to see some sort of fundamental catalyst for the for any kind of shorts on the British pound as far as the long trade is concerned I guess the path for these resistance is to the upside so any pullbacks into this area of demand where you've got also an area of resistance resistance Support so this be that 135 round number. I think is decent for a to attempt a long trade on the Pound dollar, but again, it's currency pair isn't necessarily on my list of Currencies to even think about trading there are lots of easier trades out there and in fact I do think Probably the dollar may have you know the dollar may want to strengthen a little bit So this could want to reverse at some point Moving on to the euro dollar the euro dollar again is I was saying this again last last couple of weeks that I expected the the euro to weaken and the the dollar to strengthen so again going back I announced that on the 27th so you can see what happened on the 27th you can see What's what's happened since and also as well? I did actually have this area as a nice area to look for by trades Potentially if that aligns with your fundamental analysis and again the guys in the group would have got that just by going into our trading videos Tab and again, this is a member's only area So if we went back to the I think it was the 11th somewhere around there where we had the That's it the 11th of January We had a US dollar CPR zone By at one point one nine five zero. So I was calling this trade back on the 11th of January In the group and Recalling trades because I'm called trades But I was saying doing the analysis on this and that that that area that demand zone that you see on On the chart was pretty much right here That same zone and I was saying why the reasons why there should be more demand in this area Then supply and you can pretty much see what's happened here from a technical analysis perspective, but fundamentally I do think that the This is I think I'm more looking for sell trades again If prices can come back up into that zone for me the dollar is the Probably more the fundamentally dominant trades. So I'm looking for short trades in and around this area from a daily Supply and demand perspective also as well. I'm just looking at some fundamental news on the euro so markets Euro optimism losing its mojo as strategists make a bearish turn so Nomura unwinds alongs and Deutsche Bank says euro now headed to one point one eight options traders Near the most bearish on the euro since June So after surging this year to the highest is 2018 against the dollar that euro is losing its Luster and strategists are beginning to pull back on their bullish views. Yeah, so Again At trading 180 we stay ahead of the curve, which is this was the 3rd of February I made the call to really kind of get short on the euro and long on a dollar on the 27th of January and Again, it's just understanding fundamental analysis. Once you understand fundamentals Then you can make, you know, the best types of decisions to try and to capitalize, right so We're in alignment with the with the banks any kind of pullbacks to areas either Injuries supply and demand zone setups or, you know, daily supply and demand zone setups is where, you know Traders in the group will be looking to get Shorts on this again anything can happen. This can go higher and if you did make some money on that brilliant Excellent, but you may want to start to look to take profit potentially You know into this supply zone because I do think prices will start to reverse around these areas here Unless we get some really positive news for the euro that would be the Where You know, things may start to shift but I think in this getting the short term We're looking at probably more long dollar and short euro Moving on to the euro yen Euro yen last week. We did get A decent sell off of that fresh area of supply so anyone who got in on that brilliant Trade to the downside a good, you know, a couple of hundred pips maybe And now we've bounced off of this demand zone for me This you've got two kind of weak pairs I'll probably say the Japanese yen is the weakest out of the two So again, just really looking at demand zones any kind of pullbacks into demand You can pretty much see what's happened here prices came down in and rallied to the upside so from us from a support and resistance perspective, I think There is probably the the area probably looking for any kind of Any kind of a long trades if prices can pull back into this one to six round number I think that's actually quite decent for a buy trade sell trade Freshest area there is when it first touches is always the best area second touches are okay But not as good as the first touch So and this price has really come up to this area here It's taught to look and you want to be a buyer of the Japanese yen and risk of sentiment comes into the market then You know, that would be really where your confidence is moving on to the Australian dollar US dollar and Again really nice trade setup in the Posted in the group nice trade set up there and prices have literally gone again and about a hundred pips or so bounced off of where we had the supply and sorry the Support zone right here from last week's analysis pretty much to the tee really nice and Yeah, pretty much if the prices no one knows what prices are going to go higher But that was definitely an area to look for some long trades on, you know, the lower time frames really nice now we've got a bit of a supply zone there and Also as well where our prices currently are at a point about fair value or just below fair value So if you take, you know, where fair value is before between expensive and a cheap area Coming up to that that that area there So for me the trade has already gone if you didn't get in somewhere around these lows in this demand zone I wouldn't even look really for You know a buy trade here. There's not enough upside potential for me before prices may reverse Considering where you have to place your stop below there and where you've got your upside potential If one if a one-to-one is good for you, then maybe so but for me One-to-one trades and not where my head is that I'm looking at, you know, much bigger Trades and better risk rewarded before I put any money into the market. So we do have At the moment another demand zone right there, I Think if prices do pull back again Then I think lower area I think here this 75 round number is a really really nice target for The potential uptrend if you're looking for any kind of sell trades again I'll probably say that the higher area of this this zone here before looking at getting short Moving on to the Australian dollar yen and again from a risk on Perspective been saying is for a while the market has been in risk on mode global recovery the Australian dollar Is strengthens in a risk on risk on sentiment Japanese yen doesn't do so well And you can see pretty much prices came down into this demand zone and pretty much rallied from there So now we're at an area and again Why are you going to get short here? Just because you see supply zones doesn't mean you should get shorter supply and always buy at Demand you have to have a bit more patience. There's a trading is a lot more dynamic than that You have to understand why the Japanese yen is a bargain here. It doesn't mean that prices can't Reverse here, of course There's profit taking going on and there are probably supply orders coming in but at the same time Even if you make a little bit of money on this You know, it's it's really not the smart Thing to do and less again You have some sort of risk sentiment come into the market risk sentiment change the risk of all the Australian dollar is You know is seen as very expensive here The yen is in an absolute bargain and even in if that's the case You're probably even looking at some sort of pullback to a demand zone Even then it would probably be somewhere around here would be where I would look for any kind of Buy trades again. So any kind of pullbacks into this zone here For me where we've got some horizontal support and resistance is confluence even just below that is nice That's a nice CPR zone for anyone who understands CPRs. So That is really nice to the to the upside And that's where we are anything lower than that is going to be seen again as a nice bargain And then finally looking at gold and gold technically There was a zone we were looking at in the group and it was around this 1850 15 level but prices pretty much went straight through there But what we did do and I was saying this that the best area to look for buy trades are, you know Then we did get a bit of a bounce To the upside. I think if I want to be a buyer, which I really do I want I didn't really get an entry in anywhere around here But if I get something prices come down a little bit more into between this 1786 and 1764 area, I think this is going to be a really nice buy really really really nice buy if you're looking to sell the sell gold in the short term, I guess from the perspective of a strengthening dollar, even though I don't believe a strengthening dollar is going to be is the reason why Gold is is is is selling off There's Inflation that's really going to be coming back into the market and inflation is a weakening currency So if if the US dollar starts suffering from inflation then and really For me anyway, I'm more of a long-term gold buyer and from a fundamental perspective We have a gold trims weekly loss with US jobs data fueling stimulus bets a payroll Rows less than forecast after bigger December drop bullion still set 42nd weekly straight decline But gold row trimming weekly losses I think there's going to be probably maybe some short-term Maybe gold sentiment negative gold sentiment, but I think medium to long-term I'm still bullish on gold doesn't mean that because gold is a I said because the dollar is is strengthening potentially that that gold Can't strengthen also So but for me, this is a really nice buy if not if that level does fail Then there are several areas just below that which we can look for Some buy trades, and I think the nearest one is going to be over there Think that's where it is as we've got hidden demand there and then we've got another So probably all the way around here So if you take the high to the low or the low to the high right here to here If you understand that that prices are between The height and the low is fair value. In fact, this 50% area is fair value So that's where we are with gold and anyone who missed out on maybe the move to the upside is looking to Was looking to obviously buy a fair value anything below here is going to be considered a bargain, right? This is the absolute bargain of bargains Gold is mainly driven by again. Yes risk sentiment, but also there is a Currency devaluations not just a dollar, but basically all currencies have been adding QE and stimulus and Again, I think the medium to long-term play is for potential buys on gold Anyways guys that brings us to the end of the analysis and don't forget to like subscribe share if you If you like the analysis I do every week and thank you to all the comments. Sorry. I haven't got back to everybody just been a very busy and Last week so I will try and get back to everyone's comments if they're worth getting back to of course and Thank you for the support keep watching and I'll see you in the next video