 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Happy Monday and welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com nightly update show. Hope everybody a great weekend. Hope everybody enjoyed the Super Bowl. Hopefully your team that you were pulling for won. And now football is over. Let us all pray again. It's a dark time and so preseason again. So let's talk about the tape. Most important developments going into today's session. How were the equity markets, especially the NASDAQ composite, were going to react to last week being the first week that we took a step back, right? I think that was the most important part. Two and a half percent breather on the NASDAQ last week, which wasn't a big deal considering again the NASDAQ was up as much as 17% at one point last week. And the question is, what was going to happen ahead of the CPI? Tomorrow obviously is the biggest reading of the week. Tomorrow is the February CPI, the consensus around 6.2 or so, right? 6.2. The question is, how is the market going to react? I think based on what we saw today's action, there's two thoughts of reason. One, a nice little bump up today. Very, very choppy in the first couple of hours. I came in today, if you watched the video last night, I came in today. I was looking for all my data was telling me we were going to get another day of a potential back to. So I was looking for another sell-off that obviously never came today, but no harm, no foul, nothing confirmed. But the point is, and everything just started dripping, like literally it was like a slow drip, but to the upside. And for every stock that was very strong today, and you can make an argument, Microsoft definitely led the way, continues its wave on the AR charge. But you had Apple, you had Apple wake up today very, very strongly. You had Meta today very, very strong. Again, it's not going to really show or demonstrate, but what Meta is doing right now, it's one day away from confirming the 5-day moving average. Even Netflix, they came out with some pretty aggressive put-buying right off the word go, right at the open. It deflected it very, very clean, and now it's a day away from reclaiming the 10-day moving average. And going into tomorrow's session, luckily we don't have to wait until like 2 o'clock, 2.30, the same as the Fed. CPI comes out tomorrow at 8.30. The problem with the CPI coming out at 8.30 is it's very, very tough based on the last 6-7 CPIs that came out. It's very, very tough to get a game plan from one side of the market, right? We've been seeing 3% moves, 4% moves, 2% moves, 3% candles, 4% candles in either direction. So to go in and make yourself an actionable trading plan for tomorrow with only one side of the market is going to be a very, very big problem. Because again, you could take a look at the market and go, oh, cues, cues look great, right? Look what they did today. Cues had a pullback of 2.5%. They rebounded today. They reclaimed the 5- and the 10-day moving average super bullish, right? Markets should go higher. Well, again, that's the whole point of the CPI coming out. We don't know what's going to happen because the whole argument is, well, today's little 1.5% meltup on the NASDAQ 100 is kind of priced into tomorrow's move. I mean, how we possibly even pretend to even know that or pretending to guess, we don't know. And the point is if I'm turning around and saying to myself, well, I think the cues look great above today's price action. Yeah, that's great. But if the CPI comes out and the data is well received, we're not having the conversation down here. We're having the conversation up here or up here or even down here below the previous range. So it's very, very tough. And I think a lot of you guys are going to realize, unless we get a very muted reaction, the biggest problem going into tomorrow's session, once the CPI is released, you're going to have a pretty big move, right? Pretty big move in either direction, which is going to negate a lot of channels very, very quickly. And unless you're one of these, shoot first, ask questions later, and don't let the market to kind of simmer a little bit, don't let the noise digest or digest the information, you might get caught. Maybe get lucky off the first move of the CPI, but there's a good chance if you are unlucky. And unfortunately, luck does play a part of it. But if you're unlucky and not patient to let that first move to kind of simmer, to kind of play out a little bit, you can have a very, very aggressive start to the day. And that's our biggest issue tomorrow. The market perceives this number as good. You might be buying stocks well above the previous, today's range, well above the previous day's range. That's called, you know, you're putting in your position to chase, right? And the same thing to the downside. So I tried to do my best today, well, at least this evening, to kind of give us an opportunity to kind of trade both sides of the market. So for example, and again, you want to, when you're talking about stocks trading both sides of the market, you want to use, you know, stocks with the biggest average true range. What's the biggest two average true range stocks, especially in 2023? Well, the first one is NVIDIA, right? Look at NVIDIA. NVIDIA had this massive run. If you look at the range today, it had an upside of 220, right? 220 in change. You had a downside of 209. So you're talking about, what, 11, 12 points of average true range. So you can see here, here's a definitive stock that has a perfect scenario, right? An absolute perfect scenario for the top of the range preparation and the bottom of the range preparation. Something's going to give here, right? So I tried to make a watch list tonight, you know, of names that I think that despite a potential big move and who knows which direction that we give us ourselves a fighting chance technically that we don't have to chase, right? That's the whole point, that we don't have to chase. We don't have to anticipate the potential next move because there is so much violent average true range. So even if NVIDIA gaps up above the previous two days range, look at which room you still have to go, right? You still have room from the bottom channel here on February the 9th to all the way the highs of 230. So there's a lot of room here and the same thing to the downside. As you can see here, it held the bottom of the range here back to back days. So if the number is perceived bad, you still have, what, 10 points, right? You have about 8 to 10 points of downward bias as well. Same name, for example, like a Tesla, right? You know, Tesla has been on a phenomenal run the last couple of days. Some pretty aggressive, you know, some pretty aggressive pullback. You know, again, we pulled back from 214 all the way down to 187 in three days. That's not a small thing. Again, the Contra argument is, well, that's not really anything considering the stock since January the 6th has gone absolutely berserk and has gone from 101 to 214. To Shay, right? To Shay. So the key is for Tesla, for example, you have to use the previous days range, right? So not even today's range, you've got to use the previous range and obviously today's lows. Because again, one of those channels will confirm when the price action starts to expand. The problem is if you're not trading beta, right? If you're not trading beta, you're not going to have the same type of scenario that, for example, myself is going to have because again, I trade beta stocks. I trade the stocks with the biggest average range. So for example, if you're trading a smaller name, right? A smaller name, like a FSLY, right? I'll give you an example. Like FSLY had a really, really big move today. Huge expansion, right? Absolutely huge expansion. Had a beautiful day and stopped at the top of the channel here. So if this starts confirming, well, at least you wanted to confirm today's channel, you're not going to get the same type of average range that you got today. It's right? What's one of those scenarios that's an outlier of what the stock normally does. So you're going to be, you know, in a weird way, you're going to be bidding up a stock above today's range, not knowing what the true average, true range of the stock truly is. And maybe paying 50 cents, 60 cents higher above today's range could be a very, very big problem versus paying a couple of dollars above in the video's previous day's range could still give you 8 to 10 dollars depending how aggressive the market is. So tomorrow is going to be a little bit of a tricky day, right? A very, very tricky day. I think a lot of traders already have it in their mind that today's session is kind of a sneak preview that people had, maybe the number, somebody got the number, leaked the number ahead of them. It's possible, right? Everything's possible ahead of time. But the most important part is even if you have, right? Even if you have the CPI numbers right in front of you, we never, absolutely never know when the market or how the market is going to react. So the only thing we can do is, and this is my advice, especially for all you guys who trade, who trade technology names, take the stocks that you do trade, right? See where the previous channel is to the upside, right? Like we talked about right now on the video. And see where the previous downside channel is. And make your feasibility study, right? Based on where the stock is going to trade and confirm. Not today's range, but the previous day's range. I think that's the only high probability that we have. And ironically, it's one of those scenarios that you can't play the first dip. You can't play the first rejection because you really don't know if it's a truly trend day. You're only guessing, you're only anticipating. So anytime you have days that are Fed driven, Fed notes, POW testimony or CPI or PPI. Remember, those days are the most absolutely aggressive, right? Absolutely aggressive days. Those are the ones that are going to force you, especially if you're a newer trader. It's going to force you to put yourself in a position that you're uncomfortable. You're trying to chase the price action that might not be there. Because again, in your mind, you don't want to miss it, right? The whole fear of missing out. So be careful tomorrow, right? In a weird way, I'm almost hoping for, if you believe this closes good, and I do, right? I do believe this closes good. I think the fact that we close above the 10 and the 5-day moving average on the Qs, at least it's giving us a glimpse. If nothing was on the docket tomorrow, then this would be a really positive close. But I think the best thing the market can do is actually have the first reaction to be negative. Because if you guys do remember the last couple of times that we had negative initial reaction, whether it was the CPI or whether it was Powell's testimony, remember that Powell's testimony two Wednesdays ago after the Fed minutes, right? The initial move was down, and then it was up, and then it was down. And then the third time, right, through the previous range, that's when it confirmed we had a really violent move towards the end of the day. I think it'll be at least a lot safer than buying, for example, up Microsoft, up 11, knowing that the previous range is only $2 away. So we want to stay safe. Remember, guys, don't ever put yourself in a situation that you're sensationalizing a trading day. Again, if you watched my video two Wednesdays ago ahead of the Fed, right, ahead of the Fed announcement, I said the same thing. I think a lot of new traders are always putting themselves or putting the next trading day that's supposed to be kind of a big deal, a big event, way up here, right? They're sensationalizing the day, and right away they go into the next trading day with these incredible, incredible visions of what they think is going to happen or potentially is going to happen. And unfortunately, because of the violent nature of that event, yeah, you might be right, but the problem is you might get faked out 68 times before that. So you want to stay with days that are controllable, that are lethargic, that are predictable based on the previous night's close. When you're going into an event, again, and this is the unfortunate part, a lot of new traders are already hyping this day up tomorrow in their heads. They think there's going to be a 900-point rally, the other side of the trade thing is going to be a 900-point sell-off. You've got the AI, remember that the AI predictor that the market's going to crash the next day? Well, we'll see about that as well. But the point is, again, don't sensationalize a trading day. There's going to be thousands and thousands of trades ahead of you, thousands and thousands of hopefully days ahead of you. This is just one normal one. So going into tomorrow's session, just take a deep breath, right? You don't need to catch every single trade. You don't have to be in every single move. You don't have to be in every single interview. You don't have to be in every single channel. If you don't want to trade, don't trade. Okay, and always think longevity, guys. Think of the long game. Will I be on alert for both sides of the channels? Absolutely. I'm watching the video. I'm watching Tesla. I'm watching AMD, right? These stocks look great. I'm watching Meta, right? In case the number is good and the initial reaction is going through bad. Again, I'm watching these things off of today's range, but we have to have a contingency plan. In case they gap up aggressively or gap down aggressively, we want to use the previous day's range, right? The previous day's range as an area that if the market does go in that direction that we are prepared. So Meta I like, and the video I like, Tesla I like. And in case the market starts pooping out as well, look at Google, right? Google really didn't rally today. It's hanging on that 50-day moving average like it's grim death, man. So we have to be prepared. Again, we have to be prepared every single day, but now we have a little bit more of extraordinary circumstances. And again, if you're a brand new trader, again, do not trade pre-market. You'll get chopped up. Do not trade anticipation. You'll get chopped up. Do not trade if you feel your heart palpitating out of control, even though there's really nothing that of a big deal that is happening is. So if you have all these things and you're hyping up the day, you're probably going to find yourself in a very, very dark place tomorrow. And not just financial or very mentally and unfortunately a lot of new traders, they just can't get over that hurdle. So running into violence is definitely not going to help. Unfortunately today, I just kind of sat out the day. There was a couple of pivots. I was, you know, I was sitting there watching the downside that never confirmed. On the video, there was a nice little pivot there. Meadow was a nice little pivot there. Other than that, it was, you know, pretty quiet, slow meltup day. We missed a bounce in Microsoft that was very, very strong. At least I missed it. So kind of a, as the kids say, a nothing burger for me. But again, it's okay. Right. Again, I would rather, you know, miss a trading session, you know, then, you know, then do something silly that I know is out of my control, out of my comfort zone and find myself, you know, slicing my wrists instead of being prepared for a potentially valuable day ahead. So that's it, guys. So everybody, I wish you guys lots of luck tomorrow. Again, Rick, stay calm. Take a deep breath. It's really not that serious. Just one trade, one day out of many, and it's just business as usual. Guys, God bless, and I will see you all tomorrow. Take care.