 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got some big tests for college football playoff hopefuls coming up in week number nine Oklahoma and Georgia both going on the road take on conference folks this week big spreads in those games But still difficult test we're gonna preview those couple of games break down whether Florida Or potentially Kansas could cover those large spreads and you know Try to keep that game close against those college football playoff hopefuls and more to get you ready for week number nine This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I am every Wednesday by Dr. Ed Feng you can find his work at the power bank comm and check about on Twitter at the power ranking Ed We spoke last Thursday when the the Michigan sign stealing scandal first erupted and it's like okay You know did still pretty early in the process now since then we've gotten he's been getting tickets to 12 out of 13 Big 10 other schools. I don't want to know which one he was not getting tickets to because I think I know the answer Did why make me pretty sad? It could be rockers. I guess, but you know, whatever I just don't want to know that answer and he apparently has a 500 page manifesto that he was like Developing about the Michigan football program. So like this has taken 15 Weird turns since then. How you doing today? I'm I'm doing pretty good. I'm pretty sure it was Rutgers that he didn't go to Jim So nothing nothing to worry about. Okay, good worry about Yeah, no, this is this is all kind of blown up and it's pretty interesting I just it gives gives me something nice to look at on Twitter every day I've concluded that you should not listen to anyone with Allegiances to Michigan or Ohio State And it's kind of interesting to get some takes from everyone else No, like I think the opinions are interesting. I think it's a particularly interesting I mean, it's a particularly interesting just because the rules are so Strange in a sense You know, you can't There's a lot of things that you can't do in college football that you can do in high school And you you can do in the NFL in terms of like scouting opponents and stuff like that So that makes it kind of interesting and I don't know there's there's a lots unpack and we'll see what we see where it all goes Yeah, it's definitely one of those where I'm gonna let this thing unfold before I have any definitive claims because it's had 16,000 turns already, which means there are 17,000 more to come and I'm curious where that will all go I agree with you where you kind of want to be careful about which sources you're Putting a lot of stock in right now because a lot of people different motivations, which is you know interesting and I think that in general we could always go for some more Better parsing of the news in our judgment from a judgment perspective So this might not be a bad thing in terms of you know Making your own read on things interpreting things properly as you read certain news that comes across For sure. I mean, this is like that high school exercise about you know quality of sources on Twitter This is like the final exam Who can you trust about this topic? And it's it's a lot harder now than it used to be to determine who's trust load who's not so thanks Elon That's been a true delight trying to figure out which sources we should trust in which we should not We're gonna dive in talk some football here in a bit We're talking about Ohio State coming off a big win against Penn State kind of get a read on Where are they stand relative to Michigan and Georgia right now? We'll talk about Oklahoma, Kansas Georgia, Florida and much more to get you ready for week number nine But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast coming up later on today Tom Becky I will have a preview up getting you ready for Thursday night with the bills and the bucks facing off for Thursday night Football to get that as it is posted make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread And if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcasts or Spotify and these daily shows are Also up on the fan dual YouTube page and fan dual TV plus Snap into action. That's NFL season with Fandall America's number one sportsbook right now new customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets Guaranteed when you place a five dollar bet. That's two hundred dollars in bonus bets win or lose Do you've been thinking about joining Fandall? 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So With that big win in their pocket against a pretty legitimate foe How do your numbers you Ohio State compared to teams like Georgia and Michigan right now? Right, I mean, I think my numbers weren't particularly impressed with that Ohio State win Penn State's defense played really well They were able to for the most part keep the wraps under Ohio State You know Ohio State didn't go over their team told for example So they were they were able to get enough points to win the game Obviously having a superstar like Robert Harrison, Jr. Was very helpful because Penn State corners are really good And he was just simply better than them also personally like I Think drew a lot or had just a bad game I can't imagine that he's that bad all the time missing open receivers like he was in the second half I think So He's probably gonna be better in the future whether it's nerves was just a bad game You know like right now it's we do this out this morning Like you know, I would make Michigan minus four and a half at home against Ohio State later So I have Michigan a couple points better than Ohio State So again, you know, the the numbers moved up on Ohio State a little bit because of the win But not not by a ton and then I would have Michigan minus two and a half at Penn State I think the markets are gonna be three or higher simply because I think they're gonna They're gonna look at how is Penn State gonna score against a good Michigan defense I'm not sure Michigan's defense is that great and like I said, I think a lot just had a really bad game So I think that is gonna be a very competitive game on the road. So Overall, you know, I my numbers of Michigan on top and I think that's pretty legitimate Based on the way they've played the last five ish or games Ohio State second Georgia's like a just a tick behind them so overall a very competitive college football landscape and you know, hopefully we'll see some competitive semi-final games and Yeah, I think Everyone's kind of still there. So Yeah, well, I think I think it'll be a pretty competitive getting into the playoff and then some semi-final and maybe even a final game That's competitive. Yeah, these next couple of weeks gonna be very telling and the Big 10 and huge weeks coming up here for Michigan They have that Penn State game And of course Ohio State down the road as well currently Michigan minus 185 to make the college football playoff tied with Georgia For the shortest odds followed by Florida State a minus 160 then Ohio State at even money Jim real quick. I think Washington plus 115 is kind of interesting. Okay. No, they really struggled Last week. We're only able to put up what one offensive touchdown or something It was probably an outlier game for a Michael Panix led offense that has been really good You know My numbers downgrade of Washington quite a bit. So that seems like pretty generous for them to Well, that also probably has to be quite a bit of a downgrader that has to be reflective of a downgrade of USC Washington is gonna play later So I think there's a lot of stuff to kind of unpack out there out west as well I can still see Oregon being the most likely team out there to come out even though You know, they they weren't particularly great either against Washington State last week But Washington plus 115 looks pretty interesting Yeah Parker Fleming again, we've had in the show before does a thing called do we really get beat that bad? It kind of shows like the net success rate of teams that one I believe Washington was like one of the worst. No, actually, they're not as bad as I thought but But it was a rock expectations. What's that relative to expectations. They were terrible, right, right? So that that's like, yes, their success rate relative to expectations was bad and like they went from first to fifth In my success rate adjusted for opponent So, yeah, it wasn't a good week, you know, we'll see if it was an outlier, but I still think there's a lot There's a lot of good football I think that's gonna happen in the pack 12 and I'm still really looking forward to all that starting with the game We'll talk about a little bit later. Yeah, so looking at a Parker's Parker's graph. You can find them on Twitter at stats of war Washington was like below average in terms of net success rate and two spots better than them was Ohio State So backing up what you said, Ed Ohio State's net success rate wasn't gonna blow you away Despite the way in that state so keep that right and that's all you know, Penn State's defense was was in general good Yeah, their offense could have done anything if they wouldn't have gotten that holding call on that phone We'll return for a touchdown. I thought the holding call was legit But you know, they get any kind of break The perception that game could be very different for sure and it's important to keep that in mind the context of a win Not just the fact they want even if it is a very good opponent Let's dig in now to some games here for week number nine beginning with Oklahoma going on the road take on Kansas right now Oklahoma is a 10 point favorite total in this game It's 65 and a half and Oklahoma's offense and I think we can expect you continue to be very good But the defense now facing a Kansas team that is been solid despite having Jason being a quarterback Sounds like he'll be starting once again this week for Kansas. So let's start with the defense for Oklahoma Can they do enough here to cover a pretty large spread on the road against a competent team? Yeah, I mean, it's gonna be tough I mean they are 19th when I look at my adjusted success rate. So definitely a unit that is, you know On the rise compared to last year We know Brent Venable's is a defensive guy. So not too surprising that they're getting Everything together on that side of the ball When you look at this game, you know by far the worst unit is going to be Kansas's defense 91st in my adjusted success rate. They're pretty bad A little bit better in in yards per play 59th But still for sure the worst unit that's going to be out there Kansas's offense looks like it's going to continue to roll I I didn't actually realize like Jason being started the first game of the season I didn't realize Jalen Daniels didn't play that game. So it's kind of been a back and forth with well not really a back and forth But I mean he played before so it wasn't easy for me to just be like, oh, let me take the first four games And see how Kansas's offense was with and without being I think we can kind of safely assume that they're they're going to be pretty good Um, I mean, that's certainly the data that we're getting You know, my numbers have uh, Oklahoma by eight. I'm not seeing a ton of value here I guess I would kind of lean slightly towards Kansas, but um, I'm not seeing a ton of value in this game Yeah, the plus 10 on Kansas is minus 115 right now So you mentioned it's a two two points of value there for you and you have to account for the fact that it is Minus 115 as well. It's on a key number. So I think accounting for that It makes sense why that might not be super alluring for you there And I think we talked about Oklahoma before where uh, bill connelly is writing pieces last year about how sp plus is having a hard time catching up to how bad they were and It is a quick turnaround though, right to get to this point where the defense is suddenly like Trustworthy, so I guess like I'm still pretty skeptical of them and I think that's why I I think that I'm on board with you where if you were to go a certain way in this game would be Kansas I think it's a stay away as well But like I still have my reservations about this defense just given how rough things were last year and given that It's still not really like a full full venerable scheme because it's so early in his 10 years still Right, I think well last year is interesting, right? Because I think the numbers on Oklahoma were a lot better than The record 0 and 5 and one score games and I'm looking at my numbers. They were 53rd and adjusted success rate Heading into the season, you know, I think bill was actually saying that You know, it might be another year before brand venerables gets everything together here I think an improvement to 19th on defense is pretty good. Maybe that's uh More than we expect from this unit, but you know, they're undefeated right now, right? So they you know, they They should win this game. Yeah, well, you think they're gonna cover or not And uh, they're they're definitely a contender to to make it all the way to college football playoff And they've beaten some tough teams too and that does matter as well So Oklahoma minus 10 against Kansas no value there based on what ed's model is saying Let's talk now about Georgia going on the road take on florida right now This spread is 14 and a half with the total at 47 and a half at vandal sportsbook And this is the first game we've seen uh, georgia play without brock bowers It's a large spread at 14 and a half and it's a game with a low total so Really tough set of circumstances here can florida keep this game close enough to cover a more than two touchdown spread Right, I mean florida is a really tough team to figure out and especially on defense where they are Actually a very good 15th in my adjusted success rate and a really awful 100 in second and adjusted yards for play They've had a huge problem with explosive plays That tends to be random, but when I see a yards per play, that's as bad as 100 in second You know, I think that gives uh That that gives me pause about whether this defense can do anything When you look at georgia's offense, they're they're fine They're borderline top 10 when you look at success rate or yards per play Obviously, it hurts to not have rock bowers. Uh, you know, who had about more than three yards per outrun This year that's excellent, especially for a tight end And you know lab macaquie's back, but 11 targets in three games It you know, it doesn't seem like he is the player that he was last year for for whatever reason so I don't know. I mean, I I think you know, my numbers have this as uh georgia by about 13 I think when I look at florida And I and I look at those defensive numbers. It's possible to figure out What is going on there? I think that defense could be okay to really awful um So, you know florida actually is decent on offense, uh, I kind of would lean towards the over here I think this this 47 is pretty low. My numbers have it at like 55 I I think you can make a case for that because florida's offense has been pretty good Um, georgia's defense has been kind of the weaker of the two sides of the football They're 33rd in my adjusted success rate. They're 12th in adjusted yards per play. So You know, let's let's not think that this is a bad defense We know that they recruit at a high level and there's going to be the athletes on that side of the ball But they certainly haven't gotten it done like they have over the the previous two years So, um, I'm not sure I'm not really sure, you know, my numbers like the over here and um, I would lean that way Okay, right now over on 47 half is minus 110 if and or sportsbook You mentioned bowers and his yards per route wrong, which is insane for a tight end but also like He helps the running game too because he's he'd like they have like a lot of like jets based him and stuff like that And so like he actually benefits in that regard too, but I think this number does account for that and again if you got the spread at 13 and I think it makes sense that you would show value in the over in in in this situation. So Showing faith in the Florida offense. I think that makes sense over 47 and a half is minus 110 And I think that is a fun way to get exposure potentially to this game Let's finish up here by talking about Oregon at Utah We're right now Oregon is a six and a half point favorite total in this game Is 47 and a half in Utah announced last week the cam rising will not play at all this year but Still got a big win before that announcement over u.s.c Six and a half point dogs at home against Oregon. How do you see this game playing out? Right. So this game was super interesting to kind of dig into my numbers Certainly talked about Oregon a couple weeks ago about how their defense was A lot better than it had been last year After it came into the season as a question mark You know the defense all things considered was pretty good against Washington in that game You know, they they gave up a reasonably high success rate But washington is the best offense in the nation and they actually moved into my top 10 When I look at adjusted success rate Then I looked at it again before this game and they had dropped all the way to 26 It was like, ah, well, they must have been terrible against washington state They they weren't they were they were about college football average What happened was that washington had such a horrible game against arizona state that it just brought everything down Uh, you got to think that that washington game was an outlier performance Um, and that you know when they start to play well again that that You know, Oregon's defense is probably better as is at least the top 25 unit. If not a little bit higher So when you know their uh Oregon's offense is leaked. So as utah's defense that's going to be definitely a battle of strengths there utah's uh Offense is not good. They're 76 when I look at my adjusted success rate. So, you know, um, you know One I have Oregon by about five, you know, when I posted this dk had uh, Oregon minus four So maybe some interest there, but now obviously the market has moved since then I think it's gone it's gone right through my number. So not seeing a ton of value I do expect Oregon to win this game. Uh, I think their defense will be able to hold utah down And uh, I think I I still see Oregon as a pack 12 favorite Yeah, for sure Now you mentioned your number is at five here and it's moved to six and a half Which means we've seen a lot of movement in favor of Oregon How far would this such move before you'd have interest in buying utah if we got to seven would that entice you enough or no? I mean, it's tough right because I really don't think that utah offense is good Even though they were good enough to win a game against a usc defense that I don't think is quite as bad as people Think it is. So though clearly it wasn't good enough to win. Um Yeah, I mean they I mean utah just doesn't really have a lot on offense. I mean, it's Such a shame that camera rising is not playing in a year where their defense is so elite and you wonder what this team could have done Um, I don't have a ton of faith in this utah team. So I mean, yeah, you should I would probably bet it if I get plus eight, but yeah Yeah, not something I'm particularly interested in Yeah, so keep an eye on the market if it keeps moving if it gets across seven somewhere in that range maybe you want to buy in if you're higher on utah, but um, Sounds like Ed is more tepid on that even if we do get some more movement in Oregon's favor Where else do you see a value across week number nine if angelo sportsbook ed? Uh, I'm looking back at Kentucky again I've talked about Kentucky on the show and about how I don't think they're a particularly good football team How many times have I done that? I think three this would be number three because it was a mizu game and then I did talk about the mizu game Georgia was a Georgia Yes, I think it was a Georgia game. Yeah And then uh Yeah, anyways, I still don't think Kentucky is particularly good and I thought that we you know We wouldn't see any more value because that Georgia game was two weeks ago And then I think Kentucky was off. Yeah a week if I'm not mistaken But now we get another chance to bet against Kentucky because Tennessee blew that game against, uh, Alabama last week Uh, it was a pretty interesting game, you know, Tennessee's like way ahead I turned the tv off to have dinner and then check the score later and Alabama comes and wins by a pretty significant margin Uh, it was aided by Joe Milton fumble that got returned for a touchdown late in that game You know in Tennessee was competitive in that game had more yards was very competitive by success rate So I think a score of 34 to 20 kind doesn't reflect exactly what happened in that game And I don't think Kentucky is very good. Um, they they they have Ray Davis The running back and he is very good. Um, and has broken off a lot of explosive plays But Tennessee's defense has also been really good Uh, Tennessee's running game has been really good with uh With jail and right averaging 6.5 yards per carry kind of making up for Uh, a disappointing season in the past offense with Joe Milton, you know, my numbers have Tennessee by six in this game Uh, someone is betting Kentucky someone pretty sharp because Uh, Fandle is uh staying at three and a half I think a lot of the other sports books when I looked at this yesterday were at four already So I like Tennessee here. Um, and uh, yeah, we'll go to the wall one more time fading Kentucky The three and a half is minus 110 right now fandle sports book on the Tennessee side of things and Yeah, the the Georgia game when you talked about laying the points of Georgia They got down big early and were never closed think that was also 14 and a half points spread in that one And then the mizu game They kind of just like took control of that game honestly like They had lead a halftime and then really played well in the second half too. So I had I did follow you on both those and I really felt super nervous about either of them So the fact we get to do this again with Kentucky. I think is at least somewhat enticing I think it's great. I mean, I do someone who is also sharp out there is betting Kentucky like that that's uncertainty Um, but obviously we can all have different opinions on things Uh, I I think it's a team to fade. I I don't like the quarterback Devon leary He's he's not been a good quarterback either this year or last year And uh, I'm happy to fade them Yeah, uh, so that is Tennessee minus three and a half taking on Kentucky right now at fandle sports book The three and a half is minus 110 that is all that we have here for today on covering the spread as mentioned earlier on We're going to have Tom Vecchio on later today to preview bucks and bills Find that in the covering the spread podcast feed and on fan dual tv plus as well to get ready for thursday night football Ed, uh, if people want to find all of your work, where can they find all that? Yeah, check me out at thepowerrank.com sign up for my free sports betting email newsletter Every saturday, I send out five nugget saturday, which is my curated list of sports betting tips and analytics Try to put in some stuff that I originate but also what other people in the field are doing If you're looking for action on any given we can check that out at thepowerrank.com You can find Ed on twitter at the power and could find his other podcast by searching for the football analytics show I am on twitter at jim saunas. I'm also on threads at jim dot saunas tomorrow Ed is back with us once again We're talk, uh NFL week number eight be sure to tune back in for that as well This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network