 Hello and welcome to the Monday Market Update with me, Dave Madden. Today's date is Monday the 21st of May 2018 and the time has just gone 11.25 British summer time. So as always with our Monday Market Updates, what we'll do is we'll have a quick look at the week ahead and the week ahead can be found on the news and analysis section of our website. So it's going to be a quite enough start for this week. Looking ahead to Wednesday, we have French, German and all the major eurozone PMI numbers coming up about services and manufacturing. Bearing in mind some of the economic indicators from the eurozone recently have been a little on the soft side, particularly on the relation to inflation, which would suggest demand isn't that high and if demand is dwindling in the eurozone, it could force the ECB to keep their monetary policy looser for longer. So depending on what those figures come in, it could obviously have a big impact on the euro. Bearing in mind, the US dollar has been very strong recently, which we'll be talking about later on when we look at some charts, but bearing in mind, if the perception is that the eurozone is going to be a bit of an economic soft patch, we could see continued pressure on the single currency. And speaking of the US dollar, on a Wednesday, we have an update from the Fed Reserve. This will give us an idea of how likely the Fed are going to raise rates three more times this year. Now the US dollar set a very good run in the last few weeks, as has US government bond deals. The markets are the attitude that we could see three more rate hikes from the Fed Reserve in 2018. But this update on Wednesday will give us a clearer picture of just what the US central bank are thinking. In terms of companies, M&S and Folger figures out on Wednesday. On Thursday, talk talk, I'll fill your numbers out. And on Friday, from the United States, Footlocker, we have first quarter results. So looking at the markets this morning, what we can see is that the European equity markets have got a lot to quite a decent start. The Fed is at a record high, and the CAC 40 of France has a new 10-year high. Essentially, the news over the weekend that the United States and America won't be, have suspended their plans to impose tariffs on $150 billion worth of goods from China has really boosted trade talks and also boosted global sentiment in terms of equity markets. So China and the United States are still in negotiation, but Beijing has stated they're going to significantly increase their purchasing of US goods. So America has suspended its intentions to place tariffs on goods worth $150 billion dollars that come from China every single year. So the overall market sentiment is quite positive. So now I'll take a look at a couple of the major charts here in Europe. So take a look at the Betsy 100, as it mentioned, it's lower than 7,800, a fresh record high. It's solid, and if anything, quite a remarkable upward trend for the past two months. So the market continues to push higher. Price is the best indicator. So the market is pushing higher. So should we continue on to drive on higher from here, the next big level to watch out for will of course be 7,900. Buying on the dip has been a popular strategy over the past seven or eight weeks. So if you see any pullbacks, we may find some fresh buyers enter the fold. We might find support in around the 7,800 area, or perhaps down as low as 7,550. We may even find buyers, even though these levels here, 7,685, or perhaps even as low as 7,630. I will say this, the market is pushing higher, but we are seeing a fairly obvious decline in positive momentum looking at the MACD indicator. So the market is pushing higher, so that's clearly bullish. The rate at which the market is moving higher is in the clients of momentum. So effectively the bulls are running out of steam, that the buyers are running out of momentum. Now this could be an indication we may see a bit of a pullback. But as I said, the most important thing to keep an eye on is the price. And the price is clearly going to the upside for the time being. Take a look now at what's going on over in France. There's the CAC 40 has reached a new 10-year high level as a credit crisis. European markets as a whole, I've had a good run in the last couple of months. As you can see here, the CAC 40 since March really has been pushing higher. Once again, in a solid upward trend, we're at 10-year highs. That tells you all you need to know about what the sentiment is, clearly positive. Any pullbacks in the CAC may find some support in around the 5,600 area. Or even if you have a wider correction, you may find some support coming into play in around the 5,525 market around here. Or perhaps even down as low as 5,500 itself. Move to the upside, of course. Should we continue on in this positive trend, the next big level to watch out for will be the psychologically important number of 5,700. American markets are tip to open higher as well. They're not at in as good a shape as those of the affected markets in Europe. But they are in fairly decent shape. This is the Dow Jones here. As you can see, the dirty moving average, this red line here acts as decent support. Or if you move below, but by and large, act as decent support in recent months. The market has been pushing higher here. As you can see, the Dow Jones has just about traded above this yellow line here, the 50-day moving average. I apologize, the 100-day moving average, which comes into play just south of 25,000. The market, if it takes out last Monday's high of 24,995, if you take out that level, which we're not too far away from at the moment, that will then bring us back to levels not seen since mid-march. So it would be at multi-month highs on the Dow Jones. And if you continue on, if you make a sizable move north for 25,000, the next big level to keep them out for will, of course, be the mid-march high of 25,507. I think on north of that, the late February high of 25,821. Most of the downside may find some support here from this blue line, the 50-day moving average, which comes into play at 24,422. Notice how that act as both as resistance and support only a few weeks ago. And if it's been a significant level for support or resistance recently, it's more likely to do it again in the near term. We'll take a look now at the S&P 500, which in terms of price action is at a fairly similar move. The S&P 500 isn't quite near multi-week, has just come off multi-month highs as well. But we could be looking at retesting those sooner up again. So as you can see here, the S&P 500 is holding up on this yellow line here. It's one of the moving average, which comes into play at 2,711. But then again, we haven't actually quite taken off the May high yet of 27,742. Should we go north of that, the next 80 kph on the upside would be 2,752. And we've got to go beyond that, but then we're looking up towards 2,800. Should we move to the downside and the S&P 500, we may find some support coming into play at this blue line here at 2,677, or perhaps even down as low as the maturity moving average, which comes this red line here, which comes into play at 2,632. So we've been talking about how equity markets are in decent shape. That's the equity market, which has been under a bit of pressure recently, and that is the gold market. There's been a very strong interest relationship between the price of gold and the US dollar. The greenback has been at multi-month highs. And so conversely, we're seeing a lot of pressure on the price of gold. So we see here, we saw here that the maturity moving average, this red line here, acts as decent support for the price of gold in the first half of the month. And it crashed through that level here. I think you'll see it's been grounding lower ever since. We're now at levels not seen since late December. In fact, we've actually created new five-month lows for the price of gold. So that tells you all that you need to know about sentiment. If we continue to push lower from here, we could be looking at heading down towards 1,280 or perhaps even low as 1,270. And if you take out 1,270, the October low in around the 1,260 area may come then into play. Move to the upside. We really would need to take out the dirty moving average, which comes to the play of 1,307 before we actually look to actually feel that this recent hour trend has come to an end. And if we go north of that, the next big lead to keep 1,904 will be the mid-May high of 1,326. We'll take a look now at what's going on in the oil market. Both Brent and WTI have been very strong recently, both have come off fresh 42-month highs. Last week, only on Thursday, we saw a fresh 42-month high accrued all the trade at a well north of $80 a barrel. So the market has been in a solid upward trend. Take a look at the wider mark here. From last June, it's a classic example of an upward trend, higher highs and higher lows. Granted, we had a fairly sizable pullback here. In February, once again, the wider upward trend resumed. And like I said, only last week, a few sessions ago, we hit fresh 42-month high. So the market's clearly an upward trend. If the market continues to trend higher, what we could see is targetting $81 a barrel or $82 a barrel. Pullbacks may find support from last Wednesday low, just north of $78 a barrel at $78.05, or perhaps even down last Monday's low of just north of $77 a barrel or perhaps even down at $76.45 in around this price action here for Brent Crude. Now take a look at the chart for WTI, a very similar looking chart. And that's been in a solid upward trend for about 11 months. The market, once again, last a few sessions ago on Thursday, we hit fresh 42-month highs. The market has been a touch lower since from then. So if we continue this positive trend at the old market scene, we'll be looking at retesting 72, heading up towards 73, 74, and so on. Moves to the downside, may find support in on the $71 mark or perhaps down as low as $70, spot 26, or $70 itself. It's only really if you take out the early May lows of 66, spot 79, but then we actually look at the market price turning over itself over the time being, and given what's going on with the uncertainty in relation to the Iranian deal and pending new sanctions on Iran, I suspect the sentiment is going to remain positive for oil in the near term. Take a look now at the Euro dollar, as I mentioned at the top of the video. The US dollar is at a multi-month high, levels not seen since the back end of 2018. And as you can see here, the Euro is at a sizable sell-off versus the US dollar in the past month. This combination of softening economic growth from the Eurozone and also a belief or a switching sentiment in relation to the US dollar and the Federal Reserve traders believe that we could see four, three more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in 2018. So what this led to is the considerable sell-off in the Euro versus US dollar. As you can see here, it crashed straight through the turning moving average. The market rebounded, didn't quite get up to the turning moving average, and then turned lower again. So today on Euro dollar, if it's fresh six-month lows, levels not seen since October November last year. So we are taking a fresh multi-month lows on the Euro versus the US dollar. If we continue to push lower from here, and we could be looking heading back down towards 116.70, and if we go south of that, we could be looking heading at the November low at 115.54. Most of the upside may run into resistance in around 118, 119, but the real level then needs to be kind of retaken, rather, before traders could look to be confident this negative truth has been shaken off is the red line here, the turning moving average, which comes to play at one spot at 20.17. It's been a similar move on the pile on the first US dollar. There were a significant change in perception, race, and relationship with the Bank of England. We're going to talk to the Fed. We've got the Fed. I apologize, the Bank of England. We're going to raise rates this month, which they didn't. And now the Bank of England look far more dovish than they recently did. So it's a considerable sell-off in the pile and versus the US dollar. There's a lot of solid solidation in around this red line here, the turning moving average. So there was a real kind of sticking point. The market spent a lot of time, 50 or 70 points in around 50 or 70 pips away from that level. But then eventually, the market broke below the recent lows and has now traded down towards a 134 mark, 11 not seen since December last year. Should we continue to push on south of here, we could be heading back down towards 133. So the outlook for the pound versus the US dollar, we haven't seen any signs that this downward trend is coming to an end. If you do manage to push higher, you wouldn't need to take out the recent lows of 134.50. And if you go beyond that, we really need to get back above the 136 area before traders could become more confident that the upward move, that the downward trend has come to an end. And the move north of 136 could bring the late April low of 137.12 back on the cards. That's where we're wrapping things up. I just want to point out a few things on a trading platform here. Market insights here. There will be a recording of this video on insights here, as with other updates that we do throughout the day. Some of them are news analysis. Some of them are data alerts. In relation to the chart forum, which can be called under market pulse, the third option is chart forum. And the under market pulse, the second option down is market insights, which I was just talking about. This is a section of the trading platform where you can comment on a particular market. If you take a look here, just take a quick look of a snapshot I colleague Michael did, a picture here of the Euro dollar, a quick snapshot of the Euro dollar chart. And also, he wrote a few other words about price action and potential levels of interest on the chart forums. So keep an eye on that because it gets updated several times throughout the day. Well, that's all for me this week. Thank you very much.