 Today is our final solo shot of the 2021 MLB season, which could be sad because I do enjoy talking to all of you each and every morning. It's been a delight all year long, but it also means we got playoffs just around the corner. And for me personally, I am pretty jazzed, but this is just playoffs. There are a lot of exciting players who I enjoy watching play baseball just around the bend. So that does make up for it quite a bit. So a little bit of sad, but also a lot of happy with the playoff baseball bound to come. And the good thing is we get a little teaser of it this weekend with some high impact games across the board that are going to mean a lot. And there's still a lot of chaos left to unfold. So we are going out on a high note and talking about what should be a fun night of baseball for tonight. Welcome on into the solo shot. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network in NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com here to break down Friday night's 14 game main slate with lockstep for 7.05 PM Eastern time for tonight. And there is just one weather note for today. That's in St. Louis for the Cardinals and the Cubs. At least a chance of rain there for that game. They shouldn't be good to go, but it's worth checking back on later. Check back on that one, but I think that they will be good to get that game in and send us out on a high note. Of course, the solo shot is done up today, but still a lot of good stuff here on the NumberFire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. For this week, we already have our week four, NFL DFS preview podcast posted. That is with myself and Brandon Godulla breaking down the week four NFL DFS main slate with game stacks, players are liking each salary tier and more. Find that by searching for the NumberFire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Hit subscribe there and also check out our USC DFS podcast, the Austin Swain already posted for tomorrow's card, NASCAR podcast for Talladega coming up later on today, 10 and 30 on YouTube and up on the podcast feed after that. We will have NBA around the corner, PGA. So plenty of incentive to stick around here on the NumberFire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Go search for that, hit subscribe and swing back and check out all the good stuff we got cooking over there. Hey soccer fans, this season, FanDuel and Captain Morgan are teaming up to give you a one of a con soccer contest. Introducing Captain Morgan's soccer pick up, a weekly fantasy contest that is entirely free to play. The contest is simple. All you gotta do is make quick predictions for Saturday games this soccer season. You'll earn points for each correct pick and compete for a chance to win up to $3,000 in prizes every single week. Head over to FanDuel, then to the Captain Morgan soccer pick up today must be 21 plus two, participate for more details with the FanDuel.com or download the FanDuel Fantasy app and let your ability of tricks is applied and don't forget to make your game day more delicious and sub in with Captain. Pitching preview for this Friday main slate, Clayton Kershaw is the highest salary pitcher on FanDuel checking in at $10,040. We got Lanslin at $10,000. Shane McClanahan is $96. Fromber Valdez is $9,500. Sandiel Contra is $95 as well. Shama Naya checks into $9,200. Rangers Suarez is $9,000. Then Joe Lusgrove potentially not officially announced yet Josh Rogers, John Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, Marco Gonzalez, Steven Matz and Eric Lauer are the other guys at $8,000 or higher for tonight. And looking at this slate, I do think we want to prioritize getting two guys with an incentive to win for tonight because it's the last start of the year for each of these guys. They're not in the playoffs. The teams may decide, okay, we don't want to risk things too much. We're gonna pedal things back, let them be a bit shorter and stuff like that. That is a legitimate risk for these pitchers for tonight. So my goal is to try to find pitchers I can tolerate who are in high leverage situations. And I think that we got a couple of those for tonight. Starting off with one I think is a bit risky, but I do like quite a bit. And that's Nessar Cortez. Cortez is $7,900 facing the race tonight. So a very low sour lets you go nuts with your stacks. And I think that he sets up pretty well. He's facing the race and they've got power in the lineup, but they also have home field locked up. They may give some guys some time off for tonight to rest up before the post season begins. And they do like to strike out. That gives us wiggle room I think here to use Nessar Cortez for tonight. Cortez has been very good. He has lowered his slider usage over his past eight starts and it's led to some great peripherals. He has a 3.74 skill interactive ERA with a 29% strikeout rate. That 29% strikeout rate for Cortez is actually the second highest on the main slate in each pitchers most relevant sample. And as mentioned, the raise more than happy to oblige in the strikeout category. They strike out at a 24% rate against lefties. That means that there is a path to upside and Cortez has shown he can have upside. He had 11 strikeouts against Baltimore. He had seven, four other times in his past eight starts. So he can have a ceiling and it could come in this specific matchup. I do still worry about the floor because he could get yanked if he struggles because it's basically the playoffs right now. And we do see teens be a bit more aggressive in pulling their starters when we have a situation. So that's a risk here with Cortez. I still think he's worth it. I am willing to roll him out there even in a high leverage spot because I know they'll be pushing him when they can if he's doing well, they're gonna keep him out there. There is risk about the bullpen coming in here but I think he's worth that risk. So to me, that's the Cortez is a top ranked pitcher for today. It's a similar situation for Eduardo Rodriguez where it's a must win game. He's pitching decently well, not the best matchup but I think that there is enough here for me to go at him in this spot. Since the Nationals, they're still pretty good offense versus lefties with a 104 WRC plus based on the current active roster, not a ton of strikeouts but they also don't hit a ton of fly balls. So it could be a worse matchup for sure. And it's in DC. So Rodriguez gets to face a pitcher for tonight. Rodriguez hasn't needed a pitcher to boost his good peripherals. He has been throwing fewer sinkers over his past 11 starts. In that time, his strikeout rate is 27%. He's letting up a 32% hard hit rate. He is still walking guys which helps explain why his ERA is 4.39 and it's led to some really bad outings. But Rodriguez has shown something of a ceiling. He had 10 strikeouts against the Tigers, eight against the Jays, the Reys and the Yankees and all those teams, the Jays, Reys and Yankees are really good against lefties. So that might mean I'm a bit more worried about this matchup than I should be but it's more so because Rodriguez himself is pretty volatile. Like there are a lot of ups and a lot of downs. We have to consider that for sure. I do still like him and a huge spot for tonight. So if we are considering playoff implications, I think that Nester Cortez and Eduardo Rodriguez are very much worth rolling out there. Both those guys stand the risk where if they struggle they could get Yankees for the bullpen, but I think that's the way we wanna play things for today because the non-playoff guys are risky for the same reason as well. So I will take the high leverage spots and I will take Cortez and Rodriguez above the others. There is one guy I like in a non-crucial game and that's Sandy Alcantra against the Phillies. The Marlins obviously not in it anymore. So there is risk, but I think that Alcantra is probably gonna do pretty well for tonight. We talked a couple of times about Alcantra recently. He's mixing in his slider more, which is good because that's a pitch that kills righties. His changeup kills lefties and it's making Alcantra pretty lethal to have that slider a bigger part of his repertoire. Intent starts with more sliders. He has a 3.09 skill interactive ERA. That is the second best mark on this slate. His strike area is 28% with a 4% walk rate. He's letting it fly balls just 27% of the time. So from a pitching perspective, if we don't consider anything else, I adore him. The concern is length because he's obviously a massive, massive part of the Marlins' 2022 plans. He should be. He did go 140 pitches, four starts ago. He went one or three, two starts ago. It was 87 last time out, which could be a concern, but that was still six innings and he struggled a bit in that game against a very good raise team. So I don't think 87 is an indication that they're going to fully pull back the reins in this final start. The Phillies, not a great team against righties to begin with. And now they're probably not gonna be super locked in after having been eliminated. So among the non-playoff guys, I would put Alcantara at the top of my list at $9,300. I will say, I did consider Ranger Suarez before the Phillies game last night because they had still been in contention. Suarez could have been a good option. If you think that they'll let him go long, I would say Ranger Suarez is in play in the same game against the Marlins, but given that they're now done, I am wary of the Phillies for sure on both sides because that could be pretty gross given the way the season ended. So Suarez in play, if you think that they will give him a full leash for two nights. So again, pitchers for today, Cortes, Rodriguez and Alcantara. As far as the stacks, the Blue Jays, another team that needs a win for tonight and they're basically facing a bullpen game for the Orioles. I'm guessing that will mean a lot of Thomas Eshelman, but either way, we wanna stack the Jays here. The bullpen has been terrible this whole year for the Orioles. Their active roster ERA is 5.15. So overall, we can target them in a bullpen game. If it's Eshelman specifically, we can feel even a bit better. He has a 7.20 ERA this year. His skill interactive ERA is 6.07. Strike out rate is down below 10% and Eshelman also struggled down to triple A. So whether it's a true bullpen game or one where Eshelman is kind of like the bulk pitcher after an opener, I think we should feel good about the Jays for tonight. And we had the salary to get there too. So again, Cortes is $7,900. You can go nuts though with your Blue Jays. So we got the salary. Let's rank the studs on this team. I think it's Vlad first but that part's obvious but I think we need to prioritize Marcus Semihan number two. He has a 3.35 ISO versus righties in the second half this year. That's actually higher than Vlad's mark in this time. So I'm not gonna put him above Vlad but like, you know, I think they're in the same tier. He has a lower strike out rate too in the second half. So Marcus Semihan playing out of his mind. So he's my number two here. I put Taylor Scott Hernandez third, George Springer fourth, Boba Shet fifth, Lourdes Corriel dealing with a hand injury and I worry a lot about hand injuries that matter. So that's why he's not higher. He's been playing really well in the second half. I just worry about a hand injury when I've got a good option that the salary is up. So that's why he's a bit lower but the ranking again, Vlad Semihan, Taylor Scott Springer and then Bechet when ranking the Blue Jays studs. I know this is probably gonna make your skin crawl but the Red Sox are a high quality stack again. They were very frustrating last night for sure but kind of think we gotta go back. They're facing Josh Rogers. We've seen Rogers for five starts now and nothing there that scares me out of stacking against him in those five starts. His skill interactive ERA is 5.45. He gets there mostly because his strike out rate is low at 15%. And Rogers doesn't excel in other spots either. He has a 9% walk rates. The hard hit rate and fly ball rate are both above 40%. That has not translated into bad results yet because the ERA is 2.73 but his expected ERA at baseball savant is 5.65 and he's faced some super weak opponents. The Mets are the only team he has faced so far with a WRC plus higher than 83 versus lefties. Even the Mets are below average. The Red Sox despite their struggles still have a 103 WRC plus versus lefties. So they're not elite but they are good enough to stack here. I think it's a really big risk. I know I see someone in the YouTube comments saying, nope, they burned me all week. I get it man, I get it. I agree, it's not been fun but I think that I am fine with it here. I think it's necessary in this spot. So we're gonna hold our noses and go back to the Red Sox one more time for tonight. As far as the guys within the stack I would be pretty surprised if we see Kyle Schwerber out there again there's no DH for tonight for the Red Sox. So that could open up a spot in this lineup I'm hoping Bobby Dahlbeck gets in there because I do want to use him but we've seen Kike Hernandez's salary decline a bit. He's $3,400 tonight. I don't think that salary should be going down. He's kind of been the one guy. He and Renfro have been the two guys who have been like actually putting up good numbers this week. Kike has a 220 ISO against lefties with a 44% heart rate, not many strikeouts. He's not as sexy as JD Martinez or Hunter Renfro but I think he's a good player against lefties. So I will see him out tonight. Kike did go deep last night. So thankfully he was the one guy coming through for us. Renfro and Martinez went deep a couple of nights ago. So it's been gross overall but at least these guys specifically are paying off. The guys we're focusing on against lefties are still coming through. I do want Dahlbeck in there. We'll see if he plays for tonight but the Red Sox as much as it may hurt and not feel fun. I think I want to go back there once again for tonight. Now because this is the final solo shot of the year of course I have to take advantage and talk about my Minnesota Twins for this late. They're facing John Heasley tonight. Heasley is a guy I think we can stack against because he's making the leap from double A to the majors and he wasn't bad in double A. His ERA there was 3.33 but that's double A. The first two starts for Heasley in the majors has shown how difficult of a leap that is to go from double A to the majors. His strikeout rate is 14% and that's about half what it was in double A. His fly ball rate is 41%. He's letting up hard contact 48% of the time. His ERA is still fine at 3.86 but his expected ERA is 5.72. The Twins have basically been out of contention since May so like they've been playing non-important games for a very long time but they're still playing hard. You know, we've seen them play well the past month or so. Their WRC plus against Righties is 101. They have a 185 ISO versus Righties so they can go deep. Byron Buxton is fully back so I think it's a good spot to roll the Twins out once again here. Obviously when he was Buxton he gave a little wave to the crowd last night which made me a little nervous because like, eh, does he think he's being traded in the off season? I really hope he isn't. But anyway, got me a little uncomfortable there but Byron Buxton playing well. Max Kepler, I think deserves some love here. At $2,600, his barrel rate in September is 13.8%. That's very good. That will work. Strikeout rate is 18%. So the power hasn't always been great in this time. Like you look at the ISO for Kepler it's not gonna blow you away but I think he can get the job done. I think Kepler is a great value at that number at $2,600. So the Twins, a quality stack for today lean on the value guys like Kepler and then go from there and get to the studs like Buxton and others. As far as things to watch for today did want to touch briefly on Clayton Kershaw. I'm gonna have a hard time getting there tonight despite the fact it is a high leverage game. I'm not sure how long he'll go. That's the big concern. In the three starts back Kershaw has gone 50, 74 and 73 pitches which means he's probably topping out around 90 or so tonight, which could be enough because again, a lot of pitches in this late have motivation concerns but I just don't wanna be working my way out of a hole there. So I think that it is scary to pass up Kershaw but with that sour being that high with the pitch count concerns I'm okay missing out on Clayton Kershaw for tonight. I think you can though go back to the Dodgers offense if you want tonight. They're facing Eric Lauer. He's doing some good things right now. His strikeout rate is 26% in nine starts since he's been using both this ladder and his curve ball a pretty decent amount. So they're a risky stack. That's why they were in the top three but he's also letting up a 46% hard hit rate and a 46% fly ball rate. That is a great recipe for home runs. So the Dodgers not a priority tonight like they were last night but I do think that the Dodgers are really solid for tournaments here in the team I will go to a decent amount despite the concerns around Lauer's strikeout rate. Finally, same thing goes here for St. Louis. It has not been officially announced yet but it seems like they'll be using Zach Davies or facing Zach Davies. Davies really struggling right now. His velocity is actually up over his past nine starts but his ERA in that time is 8.92. His peripherals pretty rough as well. And that does include a start against St. Louis his last time out where he let up six runs and two innings. So check back to see if Davies is confirmed a starter. See what the Cardinals offense looks like since they've already locked up a playoff spot and don't really have a lot to a lot in the line right now. So check those two things. That's why they're more of a conditional stack for today but if it's Davies and the key guys want to use her in there I think the Cardinals do great out pretty well. Let's finish up here with some home run calls for tonight. The boring one will be going back to that Dodgers games. I do think that they set up well for home runs. We'll go Mookie Betts, Mookie went deep last night. Mookie obviously a tremendously talented pitcher or a hitter. I did consider Will Smith here. Just not sure, you know, it's catcher so not sure if it played but I'll go Mookie as the top Dinger call for today. The fun one, we will go to the twins talking about Max Kepler. He is a lower salary guy. Hasn't shown the best power in the second half but I think the building blocks for power are there. So home run calls for today are Mookie Betts and Max Kepler. That is all that we have here for today and this year on the solo shot. So do you wanna give you all a big thank you for tuning in throughout the year, swinging by, talking some baseball, chatting both here and at the MLB DFS Q&A. To do it still, one more MLB DFS Q&A tonight, 4.30 to 5.00 PM on the FanDuel, YouTube, Twitch, Facebook and Twitter pages. So swing by there if you wanna say hi and chat about the Friday night slate. We also have our snake draft for week four coming up at 4.00 PM today Eastern on the YouTube, Twitch, Facebook and Twitter channels with myself, J.J. Zacharyson and Brandon Gadulla. We are all tied up with one win a piece so far for the first three weeks, a lot of symmetry there. So swing by there of course, as always, a lot of good stuff here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. NFL week four preview is up, we've got NASCAR, UFC, PGA, NBA just around the corner. So a lot of good stuff and a lot of reason to make sure you're subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. If you enjoyed listening throughout this year, please leave a rating and review because we do appreciate that as always and always fun to hear from all of you over there. If you've got questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. Once again, I thank you Deven for tuning in throughout this year. It's been a blast talking to all of you and looking forward to talking to you once again in the spring after hopefully an exciting, exciting post season and a fun off season. We'll talk to you all then, enjoy the baseball. This has been the solo shot right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network.