 Welcome to Tisgy Sour. As you can tell, we are in a gorgeous new studio. Your £25,000, none of it went to waste. It has all been, all 25K of it has been sort of sanding what was horrible plaster to give us this nice naked brick. Naked brick, bareback brick. What's it called? I think it's called exposed brick. Exposed brick. Did you just call it bareback brick? It is barebrick, I suppose. In any case, isn't it gorgeous? And I feel like Ash, I just feel like when we're in such nice space with these comfy chairs and this lovely background a million miles away from the shipping container, the left just cannot lose. Yeah, I mean, it feels hard to maintain a sense of depression and despair when at last you've been liberated from a shipping container and you're near a tube station and there's natural light. I will however try and love the take. This light is a natural at the moment, but yeah. No, no, no, behind you, behind you. In any case, this one is my camera. It has been a dramatic day in Parliament. A general election feels like it could be closer than ever. We're going to get onto what were the big crunch votes today. But first of all, I should give you a little rundown of what's happened over the last few days because it's necessary context. And I know that some of you, the best viewers, the sensible ones boycott any media outlet that isn't Navarra Media and we haven't seen you since Friday. So let's talk through the previous four days in British politics. I can only imagine the effect that that much Michael Walker has on the human brain. Positive, negative? Tell us in the comments. Strong. If you're one of the people who only watches Navarra Media and refuses to get your news from anywhere else. Let's go back to Saturday. So on Saturday, obviously on Friday on Tiskey's hour we had Tom Kobasi and Dorm Foster who were explaining what was in the bill. On Saturday that was heard in Parliament. So Johnson brought his deal to get Parliamentary approval. He was desperate to get it passed on the day because it would mean he wouldn't have to ask for an extension from the EU. That was what was demanded by the Ben Act. For a few hours it looked like that was going to pass. Johnson was going to get his deal through. Brexit would be done. There'd be lots of people's voters who were distraught and there'd be lots of people in the Labour Party who were fairly worried because it looked like Boris Johnson would have got Brexit done just as he has been talking about for the last few months. Obviously the chaos would not have ended. But in any case that didn't happen because Oliver Letwin, one of the 21 Whipless Tories introduced an amendment. That shows Formus Bad. Oh was he? I mean I was not going to put him up as a hero but he did do a good amendment actually. He gives good amendment. He gives good amendment that guy. One of the 21 Whipless Tory MPs he introduced an amendment which said Parliament would not approve the deal until all the necessary implementing legislation had been passed. So this wouldn't just be a yes-no question on the deal as was demanded in the withdrawal act a while ago. It would be properly putting this deal into law. That passed. Boris Johnson was kind of pissed off. He, well, accepted that was going to happen. Went off in a half. And he's brought back the withdrawal agreement bill or the WAB, we're going to call it the WAB on this episode because withdrawal agreement bill is a bit of a mouthful. Absolutely fabulous. Wabba-dabba reading two. If any of you were, I assume you all read the titles actually before you tune in. Right. And watch the Flintstones. Two things are necessary. Wabba-dabba reading two. That's not his accent remotely is it? Okay. Anyway, is this all clear so far? Is this clear so far? I think so. Check in the comments if people are saying this is clear so far. What happened yesterday was the government brought forward their program motion. Now what this meant is the speed at which they want the withdrawal bill, the WAB to get through Parliament, they gave it three days. That raised a few eyebrows because normally a bill like this would take a few weeks or at least a few days. And they also published the bill itself. So last night what happened was many MPs, many journalists were trying to work out what was in these hundred pages and what MPs should either do to try and make it better or to try and stop it, et cetera, et cetera. 115 pages of bill, 122 pages of explanatory notes. And to give you a sense of how unusual it is to expect Parliament to scrutinise, vote on a bill, take it to committee stage, bring it back, vote on it again in the space of three days. Let me introduce to you my favourite bit of British law, which is still British law, which was passed in 1986, which made it illegal to handle a salmon in suspicious circumstances. What counts as a suspicious circumstance? It didn't clarify the nature of the suspicious circumstances. How long did they debate it for? Well, it took two months to make its way. Presumably if they had two months to debate it, they should have specified what counts as a suspicious circumstance to be in... Handling a salmon. I can't work out what the word was there about it. To be handling a salmon... Two months to take the Salmon Act of 1986 from Bill to Law. And what they wanted was three days through the Commons, and then I imagine a contracted time period in the Lords, and so you can get that tasty, tasty royal assent. Nice and quick. All in time for October 31st, which is very unusual indeed. I like tasty, tasty royal assent. Okay, what happened today? So we've got the withdrawal agreement on the table, withdrawal agreement Bill on the table, we've got the program motion on the table, and today there was a second reading of the WAB, which means that MPs, if they vote for it, say, in principle, we do want to look at this, we want to have a chance to amend it, and the general shape of it we're happy with, and there was a second vote on the program motion itself, so where MPs could either accept the three-day timetable, or could say we reject it because we want a longer one. What happened just about an hour ago was that the government won on the first one, so on the second reading, the WAB passed, it passed by 30. On the second one, the government lost, so on the timetabling motion, on the program motion, the government were defeated by 14. That means Parliament will not, over the next two days, which it would have been, be putting the WAB bill through the Commons and looking at amendments to it because the MPs, I mean rightly in my view, decided that was just way too quick. At that point, because Boris Johnson had been briefing all day that if the MPs reject his motions or his program motion, he will call a general election because he'll just, he'll just pause this, not pause this process, he'll yank the bill because he'll say this is disgraceful, we've been waiting too long, let's have a general election, he didn't actually, so he stood up after he lost that one, and he said okay we're going to pause it, let's take a break, he might come back tomorrow and demand a general election, or he might come back with a more reasonable timetable and we'll see which amendments pass. Ash, it was a rollercoaster, right, today? Honestly, I've not experienced such a maelstrom of emotion since my dad left. I need to stop making those jokes. What can we make of... I was going to say, I assume you didn't vote on that timetable, but maybe that's a bit harsh when you're talking about... No, I was in newborn, so it wasn't eligible yet. What can we make of today, I think, a few things? One is that political journalists are still way too credulous of these anonymous sources that they get from number 10. And I'm not a betting woman, mostly, because I don't understand how to work out odds, I find that confusing. But if I were a betting woman, I would put a tenor on many of those anonymous sources, having names which rhyme with schmummik, schmummiks. I think there's a real problem with political stenography at the moment where lobby journalists enjoy the feeling that access to power gives them so much that they lose sight of their job, which is to find out which things are true and which things are bullshit, and print the things which are true rather than on critically reproducing the government's framing. I think the second thing that we learnt today is that the majority by which Boris Johnson passed the WAB in the second reading, which is a majority of 30, that's a lot more than had been predicted on Saturday and a lot more than had been predicted at the beginning of even today. People were talking about him perhaps being able to squeak it through by a margin of five, and for him to have that majority of 30 with the DUP voting against, I believe, I think that shows that he has pretty well disciplined the so-called Spartans on his own side, the group of MPs who voted against Theresa May's deal three times, that wider orbit of ERG, and also those so-called Tory rebels, the ones who lost the whip, Sam Jima, Amber Rudd. Well, not Sam Jima, he's a Lib Dem now. Oh, sorry, a terrible error, everyone. Sorry, Sam Jima, I apologise. The whipless conservatives and Lib Dems are incredibly different, Ash. I'm so sorry. It's just unbelievable for a political journalist to ever confuse a Lib Dem with a conservative because they have completely different world views, and I can't imagine they'd ever agree on any policy other than the implementation of austerity which killed 120,000 people. This was some really great, like, Mark Thomas bars that just came from you just then. I just felt outraged. You know, there was some poor Tory whip who rang up Sam Jima forgetting that he defected to the Lib Dems to say, like, you know, is there any way we could persuade you to vote for this withdrawal bill? And he was like, what? I'm much shot to liver to you. What is going on? But sorry, Sam Jima, I'm sorry for slandering you. You are not a Tory, you're a Lib Dem. World of difference there. But Rory Stewart, you know, Ken Clark, Nicholas Soames, Tory rebels who tend not actually to want to disrupt or derail the government's Brexit plans too much, particularly... To be fair, they did on the Letwin amendment and they did on the program motion today. But when there's a bill in front of them, when there's a deal in front of them, because they've seen themselves as the implacable enemies of no deal, it means that when Boris Johnson which he has always wanted to do, which has put a deal before the commons, they are quite likely to uncritically accept whatever's put before them, even if it's a chewed up biscuit in a napkin. So that is a comfortable margin for Boris Stewart. I just want to debate the chewed up biscuit napkin for a little bit longer, while ultimately voting for it potentially. I mean, Ken Clark might vote for some of the amendments, that's going to be significant, right? So what you're talking about there is a second reading. So the second reading passed by 30, and that's a little bit of a jab on the second reading. But importantly, it doesn't necessarily mean that much that that one passed, because there are people like Lisa Nandi who've said, look, I'm voting for it on the second reading because I want us to debate a withdrawal agreement bill, but because, you know, she's still committed to Brexit, she's opposed to a people's vote, fair enough position. But she's saying, ultimately, if it comes back on the third reading, which is when it would actually become law, like at the moment, so if basically she's she's faced with a yes, no on Boris Johnson's deal on the third reading, at this point in time she's likely to vote it down. So many of those 19 Labour MPs that voted for it on the second reading might well switch back, although it still does look like he'd have the numbers when it comes to that third reading. Well, who's unlikely to switch back? You've got people like Caroline Flint who would rather boil her own head than vote in line with a Jeremy Corbyn opposed whip. You've got Kate Hoey who was once the darling of Labour moderates back when she was imposed on Vauxhall in order to outfox Martha Ossamore now is, you know, has, I think, radicalized even the most committed anti-open selection centrist into calling for, you know, the NEC to deselect and blah, blah, blah. You've also got John Mann who has sort of quite famously and consistently, you know, cut his own path through Parliament and tended to vote in line with, you know, whatever his belly button saying to him today rather than what democratically agreed party policy is. So I think this idea that it could all fall apart at a third reading for Boris Johnson the deal somehow makes it through the Commons unamended I think is for the birds. I think that if an unamended bill is put before the Commons again at a third reading it will pass. However the bill is in legislative limbo. It has made it through the second reading because the program motion didn't go through it means that it can't then be taken to committee stage and a third reading unless the government introduces a new program motion. So the government has a, if the government are going to behave in a sort of normal fashion they have a very obvious thing to do which is come back tomorrow with a more reasonable program motion which says that MPs can actually have two weeks to debate the withdrawal agreement bill which would be much more reasonable. Obviously you'd have to get a two-week extension from the European Union but apart from the desire of Boris Johnson to keep his somewhat arbitrary word which he's been repeating day after day after day for the last three months you know that would be fine probably be in the national interest but it doesn't look like they're going to do that or at least we don't know when they're going to do that. The big votes will be when that does happen will any amendments pass actually and before that I should say potentially it won't come back and he will stand on the steps of Downing Street tomorrow and call for a general election because even though it looked like he took a step back today and said well he didn't call for the general election there is an idea that potentially he'll do that tomorrow you know at prime time do you think that's possible and what should Labour do if that happens? Well the problem for Labour is that they've become more and more timid by the day on this issue of whether or not they want a general election and I think that's because in some ways they've tried to be a bit too clever for their own good when it comes to strategising the perfect time for a general election the answer if you're in opposition I think is always now. There is never going to be a time where all of the planets are in alignment for you and actually at times where various political leaders have felt all the planets and their pollsters are in line for them things tend to go wrong, look what happened to Theresa May the problem for Labour is that they've been saying general election now in the opportunity they said general election after we pass this amendment which takes no deal off the table. After they pass the Ben Act or after the Ben Act gets royal assent is what they said and then after that happens it's well no deal isn't completely off the table we'll either have to have a deal or some kind of you know tightening of the legislation or the legislation locked down and secured after the 19th of October and then we'll go for it they wanted the extension to have been requested to have been requested and accepted although it was requested so now they can say we're waiting for it to be accepted and to be honest even though I do think that there is a strong argument for them going for a general election now if they want to go for the argument which is we want no deal completely off the table before we go for it the fact that Boris Johnson's people are briefing that he is currently they were briefing today that he was calling up Brussels saying do not give me an extension then if Labour are still under the impression or putting out the message at least that the reason they don't want a general election is because no deal isn't off the table Boris Johnson to be fair is giving them every reason in the world to continue holding that line so on that count they do have well let's talk about the big fundamental question which Labour is unable to meet with a yes or no answer which is do you want a yes or no and I'm saying this because I think one of the things that's really good for thinking strategically is looking at something through the most uncharitable eyes possible and when you put that very simple question to Labour leadership and it's well we want a Brexit deal in these circumstances but ultimately it is not for us to want it is for the people to want it therefore blah blah blah but it's the people it is a strong line when you're trying to smash through a parliamentary impasse when there's no deal on the horizon and you need the people to come in and sort out this mess once and for all but in a situation like this where there are very good reasons to vote against the web and yes there are very very good reasons to vote against the programme motion but ultimately those are not reasons which are pithy when you try and articulate them they don't tend to sit well within a clear compelling and let's face it I think honest overarching political story it becomes really hard to justify Labour strategy in the eyes of the public and I think that that's the problem and that's the cause of the increasing timidity we see from the leadership on a general election because you put it to the leadership should we have a general election now and it's a bit like no it's like okay well what about in spring after Brexit sorted and you know Bruce Johnson gets his deal well also no and we're getting a lot of no's on the one thing that the opposition is supposed to always want I mean there is a difficulty for well I mean one thing that the Labour party are nervous about a general election because they're not sure how it will go in terms of messaging and having clear messaging I think there is a real structural difficulty for them which is a genuinely difficult circle to square which was it a square to circle to square whatever it's difficult square to circle it is that it's difficult is what it is even this phrase is difficult imagine negotiating Labour's Brexit strategy in these conditions but anyway I'm going to say is the reason it's difficult is because they need a clear message to the public and the message to the public at the moment is that they want to get the coalition of people who want to people's vote basically they've said there's an electoral polarization between remain and leave and we're going to go quite close to the remaining one and say we're going to have a people's vote in favour of a soft Brexit versus remain the problem for them is that for them to kill Boris Johnson's deal which is the only way you can get a people's vote of course they have to convince people like Lisa Nandy that by voting for say a customs union so if we don't have a general election now Boris Johnson will bring the withdrawal agreement back to Parliament they'll have more time to debate it and there'll be some very significant amendments which get put to that so the most significant one probably will be for a customs union there'll also be one for a people's vote but I'm just sure that will fall so I'm not really sure why we're talking about it because the numbers are not there in Parliament but there potentially are the numbers in Parliament to attach to Boris Johnson's quite hard Brexit deal a customs union so I'm just going to give a little bit of an infomer to many backbench Tories and probably to Boris Johnson or Boris Johnson doesn't care about anything of course but to his ERG Spartan which is a terrible word to call them isn't it base I feel like Spartans is that a Greek thing aren't they? Yeah, yeah, yeah, so Sparta Sparta was a kingdom famous for being like tough guy in order to be abused into being tough and the sort of weak or ill ones were left on hillside to die turned into a comic book and then a film by that kind of fash one but they wouldn't have accepted Mark Francois into their ranks potentially he would not have made the grade I don't think that he would have been all that good at taking on the Persian army In any case I digress or we digress the difficulty for the Labour Party is to defeat Boris Johnson's bill what you have to do is you have to attach an amendment to it for something like a customs union if Parliament passes a customs union amendment he is quite likely to yank the bill because that loses the port of the ERG Can we please call it Yank the Wab? Yank the Wab, yeah that's good the most Romani and I think overly ambitious Romani people who think you can get a people's vote in this Parliament will hope that if he yanks it then you'll be in an impasse where people won't back a general election and then you can get enough people to back a people's vote but what might happen is Boris Johnson has to yank the Wab with his tail between his legs and then we get a general election slightly more on our terms the problem there is that Lisa Nandy to vote for the customs union amendment needs to be convinced that by voting for a customs union amendment she is not implicitly voting for a people's vote because she doesn't want it whereas what Labour Party should be doing to speak to their electorate worried about competition from the Lib Dems is being saying ignore all this nonsense in the House of Parliament we know it's incredibly boring we know your board of it the public the Labour Party have a specific policy which you can understand which is that what we want is to put it back to the people because obviously it was already put to them once put it back to the people with a soft Brexit versus Romaine that's a clear message to the electorate the problem is if they say that in the House of Commons today then everyone's going to vote for Boris Johnson's program motion or everyone's going to vote against the customs union amendment because it's made clear to them what's actually going on here so it is genuinely difficult for them to have a clear line at this point it's genuinely difficult but if we think about those previous opportunities where Boris Johnson had been defeated five, six, seven times in a row in the Commons was taunting Jeremy Corbyn for a general election he would have had the numbers to deliver one Jeremy Corbyn if that's what leadership had gone for and if they said our position is we will sort out Brexit in six months time by negotiating this and then putting it back to the people it would have been more justifiable as a position when you compare it to parliamentary reality I'm saying this because I think that it's possible and it's more than that it's necessary for the Labour Party to start messaging what it's doing in a way that's much clearer in a way which sort of points to the big picture of what its objectives are in a way that includes and does not skip over Brexit How would you do that? How would you do that? I think in the moment the issue is that there are lots of good reasons individually to do each procedural thing but they're not linked up so when you go how does this stop no deal again or how does this take us closer towards a return to the electorate it's kind of like shrugging emojis so I think there needs to be actually a sort of even it's just a strategy doc but what's in it and you connect these things together and you actually connect these things together you do things deliberately which take you back to that return to the electorate the return to the electorate line you think that's the organising principle I think it has to be and one of the things is like yes you're right it's difficult then because he's saying a general election how do they answer the question of Leavey X if she thinks that it might lead to Remainy Y but one of the ways in which you cut out parliamentary frat is if you go for a general election and you put your Brexit position to the people in a manifesto I want to get on to in detail the question of these Labour Leavers one because it's going to determine the fate of Boris Johnson's withdrawal agreement bill and especially amendments like the customs union amendment for example also because it's created a big quite intense debate really on Twitter and online and that kind of debate which sort of mixes with morality you know who's a scab and who's not a scab which is always quite interesting to debate I just think the guy who was part of the minus strike wasn't a scab we're going to get on to that in a moment but first of all I mean I almost feel bad asking you for more money after we move straight into our new studio but it's just a habit now so yeah we are in this gorgeous new studio that is thanks to you guys thank you for that but as ever Navar Media wants to grow we want to have some full time staff in this gorgeous room in these very comfy chairs we're going to put some plants I think maybe there by the window we're going to have some sofas over there where Gary can live we don't yet have the premium gruel for him I'm so sorry Gary he's in the room with us now we haven't like hit him in the weird little side room shed unfortunately we don't have a camera we're wasting him but that's one of the things that we can do the next campaign should be make Gary full time I think full time McQuiggan if you want a full time McQuiggan go to support.navaramedia.com and donate the equivalent of one hour's wage a month so Gary McQuiggan can start working around the clock because at the moment it's graceful completely part time not even here for every tisky sour but what can you do big round of applause for him in the comments like this video share it on facebook keep your comments coming we'll go to your questions at the end let's talk about Labour Leavers well the comments they're loving the idea of Gary Cam yeah I think we should get Gary Cam and Gary Mike microphone not a small me to keep him company while tisky sour is live join us join us one of us all right Labour Leavers so as I think we've intimated already there are a few kind of Labour Leavers so one kind of Labour Leavers includes John Mann, Kate Hoey, Caroline Flint Jim Fitzpatrick and Kevin Barron and these five they voted for Boris Johnson's program motion today so they were happy for Boris Johnson to get it through in three days and the only justification for that whatsoever is to give Boris Johnson his ego trip of leaving the European Union on the 31st there's no justification for that whatsoever I mean their only justification for voting for the deal was that it is in existence and that seems to me like a terrible reason to do anything there are lots of things in existence I don't do that is even worse than that because they don't vote for every so they just vote with the Tories so even when last time around when a customs union amendment came up that there's what they say is look if you want Brexit done fair enough fair enough that's a legitimate position but they just follow the conservative whip so when a customs union option comes up they vote against that but obviously staying in a customs union is still Brexit and that's exactly the kind of Brexit that the Labour movement now are moving towards remain but their priority the trade union's priority was to stay in a customs union because it's if we leave the customs union that we end up negotiating bargain-basement trade deals with the United States where Donald Trump can get his hands on the NHS really get into a race to the bottom low tax, low regulation economy not the kind of thing we want also the idea of having a customs union is that in order to pursue these wonderful fancy-schmancy trade agreements with far-flung locations like the United States or like Canada or New Zealand that you shouldn't have to erect trade barriers to your closest neighbours the EU or within your own country like between Northern Ireland and the mainland but the thing about Jim Fitzpatrick that I found particularly galling today like it really did genuinely piss me off is that he was on Victoria Darbyshire and he was talking about voting for the deal and he was asked a very simple question which was did you read the Wab and he says no did you try reading the Wab he says no did you read the explanations for the Wab he says no well are you gonna vote for the Wab yes and for me it is mad that someone who earns what over three times the median salary in this country could waltz onto TV and be like yeah guess what I don't do my fucking job can we show that video actually Gary it is in the Google Doc so it's actually a tweet of Ashes today because she you tweeted that video you know a good context to go with it because you should at least be able to explain why you're doing what you're doing it's in the section called Jim Fitzpatrick are we getting that up now or should we talk a bit longer this is why you need a Gary cam whilst you're waiting for the video you can look at his gorgeous face which if you haven't seen it it's quite gorgeous he actually makes all of us call him sexy Gary wait so did the video what's going on did you see the video tell me in the comments if you saw the video put or are we back carry on ignore this video we're in a new studio we're going to get the tech up to scratch very soon and all the clips will work in any case Jim Fitzpatrick is the kind of labour lever who I mean he's just taking the piss quite frankly I mean this is a guy he's just saying there look I haven't read it but it doesn't matter because it's just the second reading this is just about the principle of it I don't need to look at the detail because amendments will come up then she's asked will you vote for it to go through in three days and he's like yeah fuck it this bill doesn't even matter the real trading negotiations are going to happen in a year's time he's pretending the withdrawal agreement bill is not significant there are clauses which say that parliament will have a say over that free trade agreement it doesn't have any clauses that say that parliament will be able to prevent no deal in 14 months time it doesn't have any clauses that properly suggest that we can't strip back labour rights so this is someone who is pretending to be a labour MP who is just not doing his job at the same time so I want to make a distinction between one type of labour leave MP who's just an idiot and then there are labour leave MPs who are not doing the labour party because they do vote for they often vote for decent amendments but they are talking about the possibility or the potential of ultimately backing Boris Johnson's deals this is people like Melanie on she voted today against the programme motion so she unlike Jim Fitzpatrick said or voted in favour of the idea that MP should have more than two weeks to vote for this same as Lisa Nandi she is in this position although Melanie on has spoken in a more positive way about voting for Boris's deal or Johnson's deal in the end whereas Nandi is more saying look I'll vote for it in the second reading but she hasn't intimated she will vote for it in the third reading but these MPs don't seem to be trolling the labour party but where are they coming from? I find Melanie on kind of a funny one because this weekend and I think rightly so there were robust discussions between Labour MPs about what the right way forward is through navigating the presentation of the WAB and her and Lloyd Russell Moyle who is a friend of the show he's been on a few times, lovely guy we're having a discussion about whether or not to vote for the WAB is basically co-signing free for all and Melanie came out with quite a traditionally lexit line about if you want to talk about propping up a capitalist institution how can you say we should stay in the EU just look at what they did to Portugal look at what they did to Greece all of these things are factually true again this is a very traditional lexical argument but it was very strange for me to hear that lexical argument coming from someone who campaigned to be an MEP before she became an MP campaign for Remain in 2016 I mean everyone in UKIP campaigned to be an MEP at some point they didn't campaign to Remain in 2016 opportunistic lexical argument is always a bit strange and that's the thing make the argument based on the real reasons why you're doing what you're doing or tell us a bit about the political journey that you've been on what I found more compelling about Lisa Nandy because she did write that labelist article which she set out her reasons for voting at the second reading today I just agree with some of them I just agree with some of the ways in which herself and some others have taken these commitments or workers' rights to be cast aren't guarantees but genuinely thought for reasoned and talked about her support at a third reading being conditional on various things we'll see how conditional that support really is if when it comes to crunch time she'll decide no what I need to do is to represent the views of my you know mostly leave voting constituency and if so I'll defy the whip in order to do that so you know I agree there is a range of opinions, justifications thoughtfulness amongst the rebel Labour MPs I mean one thing I think about the more thoughtful ones or at least not the trolling ones is that I can see why there is urgency from the left saying if you do this you are completely letting down the Labour movement because I think it's tactically, electorally and in terms of the future of Labour rights in Britain for example a disaster to vote for Boris Johnson's deal I think there is a misguided idea from people in the Labour party that if you get Brexit out of the way if you let Boris Johnson have this victory then ultimately we can fight an election on hospitals and schools in spring now to me that doesn't seem like a particularly plausible idea because for one these MPs who happen to be in Labour leave seats I don't think they are going to get electorally rewarded for letting through Boris Johnson's deal because they are one not going to have ownership of it and two they are going to be hated by and many you know even in leave seats there are many people who voted Remain these people are going to be hated by Remainers because they let through Boris Johnson's Brexit deal and the whole of the Labour party is going to get blamed for that as well and they are also going to be hated for Leave because they are part of the Labour party which is interpreted by most people as a Remain-ish party it's not quite Remain-y enough for many Remainers but it's definitely not a leave it's got a Remain tinge so I don't think they are going to get electorally rewarded for this but the one reason why maybe shouting scab at them is a bit inappropriate and I was thinking about this in terms of I think tactically and strategically it's the wrong thing to do but if I imagine being in one of those constituencies and being a Labour MP looking ahead because if Labour win a general election which is what every Labour MP should want before Brexit happens there will be a second referendum and Remain will be on the ballot and if I was an MP in Stoke or Wigan I would be absolutely dreading that three months the three months of that referendum will be awful you'll just be getting so much abuse it will be horrible you probably feel under quite a lot of personal threats it's not just a political issue and then I think about those three months if you say Emily Formbury or even Lloyd Russell Moy someone who is in a Remain area where that is going to be the best three weeks or the best three months of their life and then you'll see them for the last two years like why aren't you standing up for a people's vote why isn't Labour... and they can be there this time around with a blue t-shirt with the yellow stars on it Emily gets her berry out and she's saying look we're finally the party of Remain it's the time of their fucking lives and if you think about what Melanions that is going to be fucking miserable and I would be a bit scared of that if I was her so even though I think it's tactically and strategically stupid incredibly damaging for the Labour party incredibly damaging for the Labour movement I would not want to be in the position of an MP in a leave seat where lots of people are completely probably a majority of people are completely outraged at the thought of having a second referendum after we had a vote three years ago with the result not being implemented I mean so I think it depends how you frame that question of a second referendum right if the second referendum is merely a repeat of referendum one then obviously it's a grave insult if the second referendum is actually here's the concrete thing that's been negotiated in your name do you want it if not it's a little bit leave it that's a different question entirely and I think it depends entirely on where a second referendum comes after a series of political conflicts both within Parliament between a negotiating team and the EU I think that when it comes to this business of calling people scabs and so on and so forth is that I think that it's unjustifiable for an MP such as Caroline Flint or anyone else who has said we have extracted a guarantee from Boris Johnson to act like they believe this horse shit because it is horse shit Boris Johnson in the Commons today stood up and every time he was asked will you commit to X on workers' rights will you commit to wine environment standards he went yes yes yes and people went ah so this man who has lied to every woman he has ever been with who lied to Sajid Javid on national TV about an independent inquiry into Tory Islamophobia who lied to the DUP about a border down the Irish sea suddenly he's telling the truth to me and his front bench team of Dominic Robb who thinks that British workers are amongst the laziest in the world of you know real iron rand fundamentalists like Sajid Javid and Preeti Patel they're gonna go oh yes what we're not gonna do is you know have regression on workers' rights and it is unjustifiable for a Labour MP to lie to their memberships their constituents and themselves that they believe it if they just went you know what the democratic principle of Brexit is more important than things like maternity leave or sick pay or holiday well then we can have an honest discussion but that's not what's happening Andy Hodgchild asked an interesting question do you think leavers are more likely to be violent the reason I say it's an interesting question because obviously the vast majority well very few people are politically violent you know it's a tiny tiny minority of people you know like 0.5% maybe less than that so 99.5% of people whether they voted leave or remain are not violent but the only people who in this country in recent history have committed political violence are the far right and the far right back Brexit doesn't make Brexit necessarily a far right project obviously we say all the time on the program it doesn't mean that anyone who wants Brexit or voted for Brexit is of the far right but it is leave, well it is people who voted leave or people who are angry at people doing a second referendum that will commit political violence not remainers and that's because the far right are the only group of people in this country who enact political violence and they back Brexit so I suppose leave us are more violent but that's only because 0.5% of them are violent and about 0.01% of remainers are I mean the thing is that you wouldn't say that if you'd been at the famous Ikea riots in the early 2000s I mean politically violent obviously I mean domestic violence is how much one in I mean so look I think when it comes down to this question of political violence I think what you've got to understand is that Brexit fundamentally is a referendum on two competing visions of national decline and what's causing it and so for the leavers what's causing national decline is treachery allegiance to foreign powers whether that's through migration or through membership of the EU it is a sense of abandonment it's a sense of loss of control and fundamentally I think it's a sense that the nation is going to the dogs and has been for quite some time and for remainers that sense of political decline and what constitutes it I'm talking about really like you know the remain ultra's I'm not talking about people who happen to vote remain but also care very deeply about austerity it's for people who really were politicized by 2016 2016 only for remainers political decline was the acknowledgement of people who do not share their social values right so you've got two competing visions one though is sort of fundamentally a bit patrician and it's a bit like say oh only if we can restore the rules of you know a kind of you know polite technocracy again things will be fine you know why do you have to participate in political decision making when instead you know you have Love Island don't use that enough for you kind of people you know you've got that kind of view and then you've got one which is sort of like you know well actually we feel quite strongly that the nation is going to the dogs because of people like you living in it and the social fabric needs to be torn up and remade again and I think that's the difference now I'm not saying that like one is apparently violent one isn't but there's a reason why one is able to chime more with the far right agree I was going to talk a bit about what we do with the people's voters the potentially million people probably it wasn't quite a million people who went on that march now that I mean if Brexit happens there's going to be a lot of people looking for a movement to take them in but actually I feel like you know we've got a million years to talk about that and maybe we should go to some questions I think it should be question time so we'll talk about that in the future can I just apologise to the viewers and the listeners for my really horrible voice I've just got like one of those head colds where you feel like your head is made of bubble we can forgive a head cold we can't forgive you turning away sorry sorry bad mic bad mic practice I'm so sorry I've had Gary waving at me oh wow the eyebrows the eyebrows of disapproval that's oh god I can't look away I'm so sorry for the horrible voice I just have a head cold I took some decongestants and they worked for like 10 minutes I think you sound amazing babe I like a husky voice that's actually my favourite thing about having a cold is the voice that gives me oh no I hate it I hate the way like my D's and like P's and B's sound alright put in some questions if you've got them replica says should Monday night PLP meetings be live streamed to Labour members at least I mean I think probably it wouldn't help us in the polls because it sounds like they are horrible shit show where everyone is throwing shit at each other and people don't normally like to vote for parties who are completely smeared in shit but but I do see the point in terms of from what it sounds like many MPs especially from the Labour right you know pretend to be you know the representatives of a civilised politics go in there and be complete assholes to people like Jeremy Corbyn who are fairly you know like I think people bully people in the PLP and I think they tend to actually be the bullies in the PLP tend to be our factional opponents so I wouldn't mind them being outed as as the bullies they are but at the same time not all of them but it sounds like there are some people in the PLP meeting who are real you know don't behave very well if you streamed it it wouldn't be good for us so let's not do it the fact is that when it comes to general election people don't think about what faction you're a part of they think about what party you're a part of there's top lines about what the culture of that party is what their manifesto is are they driven by infighting or not like you are held collectively responsible for that Joseph Oh asks has popular opposition to universal credit been outshone by Brexit or do people just not care that much I've been thinking about this a lot recently I've been thinking a lot about how Brexit as both a symptom of and an intensifier of a feeling of national decline has meant that actually dealing with the economic causes of social decline and increasing inequality get sort of pushed off the table and I think that one of the things that's happened over a period of 40 years is that the idea that the state can actively make your life better or less miserable has been torn to shreds first by the ideology of neoliberalism and the sort of thatcherite project and then also I think by the sort of overreaches of the state power and the sort of crises in trust which include the financial crisis in Iraq which just sort of mean that you don't trust these people who are in power they seem self-serving why would they ever help you so then when you've got stories of state made human misery like universal credit it's really hard for the idea that politicians can make the state behave differently and that will change people's lives it's hard to make that stick with people that's an uphill battle, it's not impossible but it's uphill this is a really interesting question from classic Jag Lover is it like a Jaguar it's quite normie for like a Navarra fan, I like that have you got a Jag, classic Jag Lover do you own more than one Jaguar because if you do please donate us a little bit more money because I haven't seen classic Jag Lover appear in the yeah, donate us a Jag we'll sell it really quickly I don't know how much they go for these days but I don't fucking want the car, I can't drive maybe a Jaguar is like the animal because they've got the strongest jaw I suppose I should answer your question while you explain your name classic Jag Lover asks if Boris Johnson gets his deal through what does the Conservative Party have to put in a manifesto very good question, very interesting I mean for a start parties often stand on their records so he can say I'm the party who got Brexit done and to be fair the opposition parties will at this point have looked for a while like what they did was stalled and didn't win it might be the case and a lot of people have been saying I've seen some sensible tweets about this actually which is because Boris Johnson's deal is actually doing okay in terms of public opinion obviously the majority of people don't really know what's in it but of people who and of people who have formed an opinion of it I'm sure not many people have read it, fair enough of people who have formed an opinion on it it is a majority are in support of it which is very different to Theresa May's deal and that is why some Labour MPs are thinking about voting for it and a sensible point has been made which is that a popular decision which a popular decision won't be popular forever so for example MPs who voted for the Iraq war thought well we're on the right side of public opinion here there were two million people demonstrating against it it looked like in some polls there was a majority in favour of going to war but obviously when the consequences of that became apparent then having voted for it was obviously I think it's become we're way too acceptable about people that voted for the Iraq war but in any case it looked at the time like you were doing something in line with public opinion and now it is something which shows you were out of touch with public opinion or that you were a bad MP or that you made a terrible decision because you supported something so it might well be the case that even if in a general election in say three months time and if Brexit happens investment will flood in because there will be a little bit more certainty in people who were too worried about a no-deal Brexit to invest in their business over the last 12 years will do it in that three months so there will be a poll bounce probably for Boris Johnson if Brexit happens but that might be short lived and also just the story of I've defied the impossible you said I couldn't get a deal I got a deal and that's their line, that's what all of their front bench are going out saying I think we need to you said he couldn't get rid of the backstop, he got rid of the backstop you said he couldn't get a deal can you imagine if Labour had that level of message discipline oh my god it's impressive isn't it but the reason they do have all that message discipline is because Boris Johnson whilst he tries to claim he has anti-establishment actually does not threaten anyone's interest whatsoever Jeremy Corbyn does which is why there is no message discipline in an establishment party like the Labour Party within it do not want someone who challenges vested interests to become Prime Minister very different to conservatives also he just removed the whip from people Boris Johnson, yeah he just removed the whip from people in any case in the next Tory manifesto they might not need to say much because they'll run on the fact that they got Brexit done and there's been a very small economic burst of investment I mean obviously they'll talk about a bit more money in the NHS and a bit more money for the police that's more about falling into the same traps that Theresa May fell into which was saying you know you're going to have to get used to a really miserable life and I'm going to tax your house when you get ill because she was so confident she was going to win a general election have some medicine she thought she could tell people like your life's going to be shit but vote for me anyway and that's not going to be the message from Boris Johnson but there isn't going to be a coherent position coming from him it's going to be watered down red tourism exactly well it depends because it's going to be quite socially authoritarian potentially in any case there might be trouble for them down the line when the consequences of this Brexit deal comes into view let's take one last question we want to finish at half nine tonight because I don't want to keep you too late because you need to get rid of that that husky sound also I'm getting up at half four tomorrow oh yeah you've got to hang out with Julie Hartley Brewer I've got three hours of Julie Hartley Brewer why do you do this to yourself I know people say what's the point in going on and debating someone who's so right-wing and I mean maybe there's not much point I love having arguments with right-wing people and I also like the because you're there for two and a half hours so you're just sort of like cutting in and you can be quite catty I find it enjoyable in any case it's good to one reason why I'm often against the idea where it says what do you have to gain by debating a right-winger because they'll get actually I think it's good practice for the left because if the left say we're not going to debate people because they're you know out of bounds politically and we don't want to boost their platform also I'm not boosting Julia Hartley Brewer's platform her platform's much bigger than mine already but at the same time I worry that if people lots of what she says has popular appeal and unless you practice arguing with someone who represents a real life position in society which to me is wrong and to me is mainly defending establishment interests pretending to be populist and pretending to be for the masses but in any case people agree with that and unless you practice arguing against that you're not going to be very good at arguing against that on the doorstep and this is the thing about Julia Hartley Brewer I think as an individual she is like she's campy and evil and she's got a real sense of how she constructs herself as a brand and as the sort of vehicle for this brand so you know her Greta Thunberg tweet she actually knows exactly what she's doing so her roll up to the new statesman party not conference just gone one before wearing a bright future coat and a tote bag which she said Brexit is my bag and she like sort of came in world around and kind of like trilled a bit like Anne Margaret and so I kind of think that like you know one of the things that I find fascinating about people like Julia Hartley Brewer like Piers Morgan actually who have been trying to be sort of solo exporters of a Fox news ethos in a very different kind of broadcasting landscape is how they've had to fully commit in terms of their personalities and the performance of those personalities it's like Daniel Day Lewis if he was shilling for the Koch brothers you know there are lots of questions let's actually do this because I think we got distracted before asking the final question we're going to do this super quick so that you can get out very soon after half nine why are Labour not doing particularly well in the polls at the moment okay so why are Labour not doing particularly well in the polls well one is a lack of party discipline both those things tend to change a bit when it comes to general election time another reason is that it's dominated by Brexit at the moment so the areas where there is party consensus on economic issues and lots of social issues on green issues they have not had either an airing in the press and they certainly haven't been opportunities for the PLP to go out and out ride on those issues I think you've also got a problem which is I don't think that there is enough of stress testing week by week in terms of how the Labour Party leadership assess what they're doing and adjust week by week and there have been these times where it's very clear how the position is going to shift and we all know for instance that Labour are going to come out much more firmly in favour of a second referendum and it doesn't happen when it does happen it's much later than anticipated the fighting has been public it's been messy and the political situation that it's responding to has also changed so you end up magically with all of the drawbacks none of the benefits of the thing that was always going to happen anyway and that is an outgrowth of trying to achieve politics by consensus which is something which I do genuinely believe in but you've got to couple consensus with decisiveness and the ability to implement from the top sometimes good answer I've got news that actually we've got Gary Cam set up Gary Cam I'm going to tell you what we've got on tomorrow and then he's going to do the sign off I think can you speak as well on Gary Cam? not really get the Gary Cam up sexy Gary it's true right Ash thank you so much for coming on Tisgy Sour tonight it's been a real pleasure watching parliament for the three hours before we went live tomorrow Tisgy Sour will be I feel closer to you than I ever cared to be I'm not sure how to take that I suppose tomorrow we've got Anand Menon on the show Britain's favourite Brexit guru so if you have any questions about the nitty gritty of what's in that bill or what's going to happen next he is the person to ask so tune in tomorrow at 8pm live that will be one not to miss thank you Gary for producing the show thank you our audience for having sorted us out this gorgeous studio we love you we do love you but we also want your money so please go to support.bromedia.com and donate the equivalent of one hour's wage so we can get some full time staff to occupy this gorgeous new studio thank you for watching thank you for your comments Gary take us home good night