 We start this morning with general questions. To ask the Scottish Government what its position is on what the top rate of income tax should be. Jerry Mackay In February, the Scottish Parliament endorsed the Scottish Government's proposal that the additional rate of income tax should be maintained at 45 pence for the tax year 2017-18. Analysis that was produced by the Scottish Government showed that there was Pan evolved new risks of raising the additional rate. However, the First Minister has asked the Council of Economic Advisers to consider how and to what extent that risk can be mitigated. If we are sufficiently assured that it can be that, we consider raising the additional rate from 45p to 50p from 2018-19 onwards as part of budget considerations.세요 clearer Last week, the First Minister said that she has supported a 50 b tax band, as long wrth gwrs o'r UK, ond nid o'r Scotland, nid o'r cymdeithasol, oedden nhw'n gweithio. Yesterday, the SNP voted against to pay rise for low and middle income earners in the NHS. Why does the minister think that low income earners in a market that is competitive and wanted right across the globe won't choose to leave Scotland, but high income earners who would have to pay a little bit more tax would leave Scotland? Isn't that a very Tory argument? Her position is where we've got the powers to do so, to make taxation fairer and more proportionate to the ability to pay, whilst also raising the additional revenue. That's the point of taxation, to be able to invest in our public services. That's what we want to achieve. That's why we're taking a methodical approach to this. There is some irony from the Labour Party talking about low and middle income earners when it was a Labour Party that wanted to increase the basic rate, which would have had an impact on those very people. We'll take the right decisions on tax that's balanced and fair and progressive, while ensuring that we raise the necessary revenue to invest in our public services. John Mason I wonder if the cabinet secretary would consider there might be a behavioural change if we change the rates too much and that two pence is an additional difference from the UK rates might be a good starting point. John Mason for his advice. I'm not setting any parameters at this stage in the parliamentary cycle but certainly to agree that there are issues around behavioural responses as they relate to tax. Of course, that's why we're taking a methodical approach. That's why the First Minister has asked the Council of Economic Advisers to consider the matter so that we can take our tax decisions in light of all available evidence because absolutely behavioural change and issues around tax avoidance is something that the Scottish Government, indeed the whole Parliament, should consider when it uses the economic levers at our disposal. Does the cabinet secretary accept that there is a high risk of less money being raised by increasing the higher rate through behavioural change, not necessarily through higher earners leaving Scotland but perhaps by reordering their affairs, so for example they're paid through dividend income rather than through salaries? Will the council of economic advisers be taking all those issues into account when it's considering those proposals? I agree with Murdo Fraser that there is a point around behavioural change in how people deploy various ways to engage in tax avoidance and that is a concern. That's why we have to understand all those issues when we're considering tax and yes, the council of economic advisers will consider all available evidence and of course bring their own expertise to the table in that regard as well. Murdo Fraser's question allows me to also make the point that it would be better if the Scottish Government had full control of all of these matters so that there weren't those added opportunities to avoid paying tax in Scotland. Ivan McKee Thank you, Presiding Officer. Would the cabinet secretary agree with me that without the Scottish Parliament having powers over, for example, dividend and savings income taxes, taxes impacted by incorporation including capital gains incorporation tax and the powers to police tax avoidance, any changes to the top rate of income tax run the risk of reducing rather increasing funds available for public services in Scotland and that Labour MSPs would be better placed joining us in arguing for full transfer of those powers to the Scottish Parliament? Cabinet secretary. I do agree with that analysis and that's the case that the Government has made around the transfer of all powers in relation to tax to ensure that we can close any loopholes that may exist. We can also have a co-ordinated approach in tax to be able to maximise revenues to invest in our public services. I think that that point is well made. I look forward to what all the parties in the UK general election may have in their manifesto in relation to tax. I suppose, thanks to the leak, we have an understanding of what the Labour Party might be able to do, which shows the ironing of their position in the UK and in Scotland, but we are not following the Tory proposition just to pass on tax cuts for the rich. We have raised the necessary revenue to invest in our public services. Has not been lodged. Question 3, Lewis MacDonald. To ask the Scottish Government what measures it will take to ensure increased recruitment of students from the north of Scotland to train us teachers at the University of Aberdey. Cabinet secretary, John Swinney. We have taken a series of actions to help address issues around teacher recruitment. Those include increasing student intake targets for the sixth year in a row, taking steps to maintain teacher numbers as a central part of our priority to improve education, launched a new teacher recruitment campaign in February of this year, and developed alongside Scottish universities a package of innovative routes to teaching to help to encourage more graduates to become teachers. We are very happy to work with local authorities to help to tackle teacher shortages in the Aberdeen area. Currently, we are supporting the University of Aberdeen's distance learning programme, which allows local authority staff to train us teachers for remaining in post. We are funding an extension to the programme so that it covers secondary teaching and is available to all local authorities. We are committed to considering whether a second cohort of PGDE internships can be supported through the transition training fund. Lewis MacDonald. Clearly, some of those steps are very welcome, and the cabinet secretary will be aware of the evidence of William McLeod to the Education and Skills Committee yesterday, in which he highlighted the steps taken by the Western Isles Council in order to recruit and retain trainee teachers from within their local area. Recognising, as the cabinet secretary clearly does, the need for further action to address the recruitment crisis across the north of Scotland. Will he have further discussions with the University of Aberdeen about what more can be done to enable those types of local imaginative innovative schemes, not just in the Western Isles and Aberdeen, but right across the north of north-east of Scotland, where recruiting and retaining trainee teachers is such a critical and pressing problem? I welcome Lewis MacDonald's comments and the thoughtful nature that underpins them. That is a problem that is not just in Scotland or just in the north-east of Scotland. It is a problem that is widespread. I was at the international summit of the teaching profession just before the Easter recess. Across about 20 jurisdictions, including some highly respected jurisdictions around the world, there are increasing shortages of teachers. We have to be innovative and creative about the approaches that we take to encouraging teachers to join the teaching profession. I can assure Mr MacDonald that the Government will work very closely with the University of Aberdeen and with the local authorities in north-east of Scotland to work jointly on solutions that will deliver the objectives that we all share in this respect. To ask the Scottish Government what it is doing to mitigate the cumulative effect of UK benefit reductions in Dumfries and Galloway. The UK Government will have cut £1 billion a year from welfare spend in Scotland by 2022, with a quarter of a billion coming through changes introduced last month alone. We have taken a number of actions to protect the poorest and most vulnerable. Those include, since 2013-14, spending more than £350 million to enable us to fully mitigate the bedroom tax, so that 70,000 households save around £650 per year, helped 2,441,000 individual households in crisis through the Scottish Welfare Fund, and with a further investment of more than £1 billion in the council tax reduction scheme, and as members will know, we have not imposed a two-child cap on that scheme. At a local level, Dumfries and Galloway has received over £30.5 million of this mitigation funding. However, it has to be said that the Scottish Government should not have to mitigate cuts in policies, which this Parliament has not and I believe would not vote for. I thank the minister for that answer. One of the most recent stories about the on-going cuts has been the effect on motability vehicles. The charity muscular dystrophy UK found that 900 people a week are losing their motability vehicle due to the reassessment of personal independence payments, and that is having a very devastating effect on people in rural areas such as Dumfries and Galloway, where the vehicle is a vital lifeline for everyday life, including getting to and from work. Does the minister agree with me that this is completely unacceptable? I thank the member for that supplementary. The Conservative Government of course tells us that their welfare policies are designed to help people into employment. Even in their own terms, and even if we believe them, the significant impact on the loss of mobility vehicles on individuals, particularly as the member says on those living in rural communities, like her own and indeed mine, is considerable. What we do know is that the Conservative Government, whether it is about austerity or welfare cuts on the back of the poor, has no care and no recognition of the damage caused by their policies. In Scotland, we are doing things differently. We are working with mobility to ensure that it continues to be available when we take on the delivery of those benefits in our rights-based social security system, and it will be a system based on dignity and respect. To ask the Scottish Government whether it will provide an update on plans to increase the capacity of the Edinburgh city bypass. Minister Humza Yousaf. The Scottish Government is committed to undertaking improvements on the Edinburgh city bypass and has announced the preferred option for the upgrade of sheriff hall roundabout on 3 April. Transport Scotland is now taking forward the detailed development and assessment of the preferred option in line with the statutory process. Miles Briggs. I thank the minister for that answer. Recent studies have suggested that the city bypass is among the most congested stretches of trunk road anywhere in the UK, and the Scottish Government's own figures now expect an extra 10,000 vehicles per day to be using the bypass by 2022. Although the long overdue improvements at sheriff hall are indeed welcome and must be constructed without further delay, can the minister set out to Parliament in detail what specific plans the Government has and is working on to increase capacity along the length of the bypass and whether it supports the use of smart motorway technology to allow hard shoulders to be used during peak times? Those improvements will make a big difference to those that are coming into Edinburgh, leaving Edinburgh and the surrounding south-east of Scotland area. What I would say to him is that we have been making improvements since we came into power and took on this Government into 2007. In 2008, there was a £2.2 million lane widening project for sheriff hall. The £30 million construction of the Dalkeith bypass, which included the Miller Hill interchange at the A720, is a big part and component of what we do in terms of infrastructure improvements. In 2015, we installed road-stud lane markings, which illuminate in conjunction with traffic lights. We are already doing some of that, where we can do that further, will be part of the A720 SES plans cross-boundary study, which we are taking forward with the local regional transport partnership and the local authority. With reference to the proposals to improve the sheriff hall roundabout, will there be provision to allow cyclists to safely traverse that roundabout, many from my constituency, when they are travelling from the A7 into Edinburgh? At the moment, anyone on a bike takes a life in their hands trying to go round the sheriff hall roundabout. Yes, suitable provisions for all users, including cyclists as an important part of the proposed improvements to sheriff hall roundabout. That will be developed in further detail as we progress the development, the assessment of the preferred option in consultation with local interest groups. However, it is an issue that has been raised by many of those organisations that are representing the cycling lobby, one that we will and are giving careful consideration to. To ask the Scottish Government how many homeless veterans were recorded in Scotland at the nature of the last three years. In 2015-16, official statistics record 922 homeless applications, where the main applicant applied directly from armed services accommodation, or that application included a household member formally in the armed services. That is the lowest number recorded to date. That represents 2.7 per cent of all homeless applications. In 2014-15, those numbers were recorded at 959 and 1,008 in 2013-14. Maurice Corry I thank the minister for that answer. I understand that much of the housing provided to veterans is through charitable organisations such as the Scottish Veterans Residences and also homes for heroes and others. We are very grateful to those charities for their relentless efforts to keep veterans off the streets. However, charities do not have the same funds to be the main providers and of housing for veterans. Veterans housing has full capacity and has waiting lists, and there is little effort being made by the Scottish Government to encourage local authorities to offer more housing to veterans. Scottish veterans are also reported to be 10 per cent more likely to be homeless than veterans in England. Will the Scottish Government therefore look into working more closely with charities and local authorities to close the gap to be at least the same or better than England in their treatment of veterans resettlement and housing? The Government has worked closely with veterans charities, including giving £1.3 million to the veterans garden city association. We are also working with local authorities to improve homelessness services for all. Of course, we have our 50,000 affordable homes target. I read with interest yesterday the daily record where Cammie McLeod from Whodare's Cares said that the treatment of veterans was a horrifying indictment of modern Britain. The Tory Government has presided over a rise in insecure employment, welfare cuts and ideologically driven austerity, all of which has contributed to the major increase in the need for additional homelessness services and food provision across the UK. However, we have seen the Scottish Tories who are apologists for their rape clause, so I do not think that we should hold our breath waiting for them to stand up to raise a May or anyone else, even when it means that veterans, families and pensioners are being pushed into poverty and crisis due to their policies. Government, whether it will provide an update on any assessment it has made of the potential impact of automation and artificial intelligence on the economy. Minister Jim Hepham. The Scottish Government continues to monitor the emerging evidence base around automation and artificial intelligence and its implications for Scotland's economy. In April, Scottish Enterprise published a research report on the potential impacts of automation on Scotland's construction industry, the food supply chain and financial and business services. The research found that, by 2025, automation is likely to contribute to net employment growth, that new industries will be formed to provide and service new automation solutions, and when the new sectors of the company's growth realized by automation will require increased employment technological change, issues such as automation will have a significant impact over the next few decades, creating both challenges and opportunities for businesses and employees across Scotland. As highlighted in Scotland's labour market strategy, we will take forward analysis of issues such as that in the future and help employers and employees to respond to them positively with the support of the strategic labour market group. I thank the minister for that answer. The minister will be aware of the recent IPPR report on the future of work and the skill system in Scotland, which highlighted that more than 46 per cent of jobs—that is £1.2 million in Scotland—are at risk from automation. Can the minister outline what action the Government is taking to ensure that Scotland's skill system is able to continue to support Scotland's workforce as automation changes the nature of work? I am indeed aware of the IPPR report. I view it as a welcome addition to our understanding of those matters. I know, as I have said, that automation technological change will have profound impacts on the way that we work in the future. As I said, our labour market strategy recognises that. Of course, what we see is that we do not exactly understand entirely what the impact will be. That is why there has been a range of research commissioned. Indeed, the OECD, taking a different approach to IPPR, has estimated that around 12 per cent of UK jobs might be affected by automation, a rather smaller figure than the IPPR. I recognise that automation may pose challenges for the way that we work in the future, particularly for those in low-skilled jobs. Scotland's workforce is, of course, highly educated, flexible and adaptable. It is already responding well to the challenges of the 21st century through our enterprise and skills review. We aim to create a coherent enterprise and skills system that can ensure that it continues to be the case in relation to the IPPR report. It talks about mid-career provision to allow people to progress in the workplace. Our enterprise and skills review plays a role in that. Of course, we have the flexible workforce development fund and individual training accounts that we have set out that can help here as well. I will always be willing to consider what else we can do. Dean Lockhart Thank you. In January this year, the UK Government published a draft industrial strategy containing a series of measures to capitalise on emerging technologies in the economy, including automation. Leading organisations, including the Royal Society of Edinburgh and the Scottish Whiskey Association, have called on the Scottish Government to actively participate in the industrial strategy. Can the minister therefore explain what steps have been taken by the Scottish Government to actively participate in the industrial policy? John Swinney I will always be willing to engage with the UK Government on these matters. I know that the Cabinet Secretary for Economy, Jobs and Fair Work has been doing precise that and will continue to engage. Mary Fee To ask the Scottish Government how it will support the recruitment of additional teachers and classroom assistants in West Scotland. Cabinet Secretary John Swinney The Scottish Government is taking a number of actions to help recruit teachers. We are spending £88 million this year to make sure that every school has access to the right number of teachers. We have increased student teacher intake targets for the sixth year in a row, and we are setting targets to train teachers in the subjects where they are needed most. We are also supporting innovative new routes into teaching, including work with the universities of Glasgow and Strathclyde. The recruitment and deployment of support staff is a matter for education authorities in light of local circumstances and priorities, including their statutory duties. Mary Fee I thank the cabinet secretary for that answer. Recent Scottish Government figures have highlighted a worrying trend across West Scotland, with class sizes rising and teacher numbers decreasing. In Renfrewshire, the percentage of pupils in primary 1 to primary 3, in classes with 18 pupils or fewer, has declined from 33 per cent in 2010 to 13 per cent in 2016. Although the average class size for primary 5, 6 and 7 in Renfrewshire is over 26 pupils, furthermore, over the last decade of SNP rule, teacher numbers have declined significantly. In North Ayrshire, teacher numbers have fallen by 105 since 2007, while Inverclyde now has 175 fewer teachers than a decade ago. With those statistics in mind, can I ask the cabinet secretary what specific plans the Scottish Government has in place to reverse this worrying trend of larger class sizes and fewer teachers across West Scotland, which result in increased workload for teachers and decreased contact time between teachers and pupils? The Government has attached very high priority to maintaining teacher numbers. We had to do that because we faced a number of Labour local authorities that were absolutely determined to reduce teacher numbers, and I would not have it. I am delighted that, as a result of the Government's strong action in this respect, we see an increasing number of teachers in our schools and our classrooms, and I am delighted that the £120 million that the Government has made available directly to the schools of our country, which the Labour Party voted against every single one of them, is now recruiting more teachers in our classrooms and assisting in the delivery of education in Scotland. I would have thought that Mary Fee would have welcomed that.