 My name is Anthony Chung. I'm the head of market analysis here at Amplify Trading. Don't forget to subscribe to the channel to get daily content from myself and the rest of the team. And if there's any questions about today's briefing, feel free to leave a comment below. Okay, very good morning. The day has arrived. Of course, US election day Tuesday the 3rd of November. So I hope you're feeling well rested and hopefully you can join us on Amplify Live. The link is in the description if you're watching this on YouTube to access a free trial so that you can join myself and the rest of the team throughout the evening and overnight session today. But looking at the charts this morning and equity index futures generally positive. The DAX up about 114 as European equity market is just about to open shortly. Follows on from the higher close that we had on Wall Street last night. Gains ranging from really around 0.3 up to 1.6. And actually a little bit of an unusual move in the sense that the NASDAQ was an under performer. And we did see an apparent slight shift in rotation out of some of those big mega tech names. And that was reflective in the percentage changes of the individual stock sectors yesterday. I'll talk about that in a little bit more detail. Interesting commentary coming out of JP Morgan that kind of touches upon that idea of stock rotation as we go into the US election. Otherwise then overnight a positive age Pacific session following on taking the baton from the higher close on Wall Street. And that's kind of led us to where we are at the moment. So with stock futures holding up, then T notes are lower. We're down to around the bottom end of the range really going back to where we were on Friday night session before the weekly close. But before there we've got the low that we had in yesterday's session around this time yesterday in fact. And that does coincide with the S1 in the US 10 in the futures market down the bottom right here at around 0.4 just holding some of the price action for now. Otherwise elsewhere the dollar is weakening. The Dixie's down about three tenths of 1%. It was grinding down through the Asia Pacific session and it's kind of added a bit further momentum to the downside as European and UK traders have come in. So subsequently that is providing some underlying support for both major currency pairs with euro dollar and cable both up roughly around 40 pips or so. The euro having got above quite a key area yesterday which did provide a kind of area of resistance to price recovery that we saw through the European morning before we sold back off through the US session. So having broken through that during the Asia Pacific session the euro has just kind of kicked on as the dollars continue to weaken. Then in cable we're just coming up to the top end of what has been a bit of a range of price activity of late and just keeping an eye on the high from yesterday afternoon which is where we're trading at the moment around $129.50 in the sterling dollar futures. Oil markets down here at the bottom, phenomenal day yesterday really actually is a 10% gain from loads of high credit born and intraday move. But one of the things to keep in mind is we're just drifting off a little bit. I don't think that's that unsurprising to see a little bit of short term profit taking just going into the main event later. But underpinned here again by the commitment from apparent Russian inside sources suggesting about rolling over their current depths of supply cut from the OPEC plus side going from the end of January out through to the end of Q1. So if you like kind of intonating of intervention to offset what has been a downward moving crude oil market of late with the general perception of demand destruction given the worldwide lockdowns that are being implemented that we've seen over mainland Europe, UK and elsewhere going forward. So we'll touch upon that again in a little bit more detail in a moment but let's get into some of the headlines. I'm going to start off with this idea. I'll talk briefly about the JPMorgan note that was talking about potential stock rotation. So JPMorgan strategists are dropping their lifetime preference for technology stocks. This was yesterday after being overweight for tech for almost two years they raised their recommendation on banking and insurance stocks to overweight. The rotation in market leadership would stem from an economic recovery and possible positive news on the pandemic. So all I can derive from that then is they're looking at the period. I mean these calls as I say with tech they've been in it for two years. So this is looking about the fact that I guess if we go beyond into then Q1, Q2, second half of 2021 we also whatever the outcome remove a lot of the risk or uncertainty surrounding about the outcome of the election so we go beyond the next coming days and weeks then they're looking for a bit of a rotation then out of what has been a massively outperforming sector into something that then starts to show a further underlying economic recovery story. So a clear outcome for the election they do say is a positive for equity investors as the market could then focus on fiscal stimulus measures. So that's obviously one of the key things which we'll be watching tonight is not just who wins the presidency between Biden and Trump but more importantly almost is what is the composition of Congress can the Democrats indeed conduct a full blue wave and take control of the Senate away from the Republicans. Again how mixed or not that composition is of power on Capitol Hill will really define about the timing and the size of the likely stimulus that will follow. A contested result according to JP would lead to selling they say while recommending buying any weakness on a three to six month horizon again looking at generally speaking it will be the uncertainty from an inconclusive election will likely be reflected short term in a negative way but then over the medium term likely it is that the market will move in a much more positive fashion. On this note just talking about a couple of election scenarios this was a chart I'll share with you a crib sheet if you want to call it that from Michael Brown Michael kindly joined us on Friday for the live webinar that we did but he's put out just a nice straight forward kind of more binary outcome of blue wave blue divided congress the status quo or a red wave and then the subsequent movement that can happen in the dollar equities and treasury yields so I'll share this around I'll tweet it as well on the handles here I'll be tweeting useful info graphics and stuff throughout the entire day and night so anything at all just just dropped me a line but I won't go into this in great details but worth having a review just in regard to the overall take a ways from a summary point blue wave or divided blue congress this would be a Biden win in a sense but then how how definitive is the democratic win over the chambers then either of those are seen as the dollar negative and I would agree with that in the short term the idea then being the significant fiscal expansion is obviously going to increase the deficit situation in America is the general notion of the most dollar negative under a blue wave but that spending in itself although they might talk about taxes, regulation changes things that are more targeting the big tech names in particular so it could be quite interesting on a sector basis but overall after that period then the general size of the fiscal boost should lift equity markets and interestingly if you look at this there's only with the dollar most scenarios are potentially for a weaker dollar apart from the status quo where status quo means that Trump can continue his kind of tough protectionist stance the geopolitical uncertainty continues the dollar still acts in a safe haven bid with equities though it's almost the reverse of the dollar being that a blue wave, a blue divided congress or a red wave then stocks go up and that kind of almost a joke at the moment amongst the traders is that stocks just go up regardless and they're not too wrong in that respect so worst checking that out when you get time on that point then let's have a quick look and update on what the situation is from an election polling perspective going into the final few hours and on a national level Biden still leads by a fairly comfortable margin the betting markets haven't really moved at all of recent weeks they're still remaining around 63 in favour of Biden this as you can see Trump has made a decent bit of headway over the last week and probably more telling is the top battleground area so Wisconsin, Michigan where you've probably seen pictures of course of Trump physically holding these campaign rallies it's going to be definitely interesting when you put the election aside the COVID-19 situation in America at the moment is looking fairly precarious and I do feel somewhat that any type of more kind of forcible response to containment and of the spreading and transmission of coronavirus has kind of been somewhat pushed to the sidelines given the fact that he doesn't definitely Trump doesn't want to be doing that or putting pressure on state governors this close into an election so if that then allows what I'm interested to see post election the COVID-19 to have spread he's obviously been holding these rallies has been before some kind of peaks in localised areas when this has happened before on mass gatherings but also as well is there a potential given it's a highly contentious election that we're looking at particularly from a lot of social issues whether or not we're going to get a lot of rioting across the country for example and again that can lead to situations obviously of a lack of adherence to social distancing measures and so on which is obviously going into what is already a fairly increasing number of cases in America particularly in those mid-west states so a couple of things to think about overall though the lead for Biden has continued to narrow so Trump over the last really two weeks has done pretty much the best job he can in order to narrow this down from what was kind of a six percentage point lead to now less than three he currently leads overall on an average basis North Carolina Florida's the kind of big one Biden leads in the polls but actually the bookies that Trump is still leading with Florida and Florida will be one of the key ones because as you remember from my previous briefings that is an area of which was one of the earliest back into late September had already started the tabulation process of counting mail-in ballot votes so they should be one to release results in fairly prompt fashion and on that point here is a map of America and it's broken down you can see that the brackets is UK time so here if you just I'll again I'll be tweeting all of this stuff but if you scroll your basically if you scroll your mouse over each individual time so midnight is when Florida is expected to come out and Florida for me is a massive one so midnight is going to be a really pivotal point if you're trading the event overnight we then go further forward and you go 7.30, 8 you get a bulk of them coming at 1 and then 8.30 which is again 1am, 1.30, 2 so by 2am you're going to have a pretty good sense with most of the big guns having reported by then again a very top level as you can see here at midnight and 12.30 you do get a number by 1am of the key swing states that come out so it's going to be one of those where if you're new to trading I'd say perhaps best just observing unless there's something absolutely clear that comes out I'd say without really a squawk or an analyst team or someone like myself assisting you throughout the night just be careful because it's going to be a really whippy price action the way of which American broadcasters release results is particularly messy because they don't always wait for a final outcome like we would in traditional UK politics they report numbers as they're being counted and so that they can shift one way into the other as they're being counted which can cause all kind of lack of follow through in initial price movement but timing wise we'll be going live on Amplify Live probably around half 10, 11pm just in good time in preparation for everything that's going to come out finally then the calendar for today we have had the RBA interest rate decision overnight so just to get you up to speed they lowered their key interest rate as expected from 0.25% to 0.1% but that was very much as expected the board also said they'll buy 100 billion Aussie dollars of government bonds of maturities in around 5 to 10 years over the next 6 months and Governor Lowe noted the RBA has not run out of fire power but also pushed back against the prospect of negative interest rates overall the Aussie not too much in the way of a real sustained reaction it did initially in terms of price movement it did initially dip overnight but it's bounced from around its pivot level trading up now higher on the session up about 19 pips but I'd say predominantly that reversal underpinned by what has been some weakening in the dollar of late again dollar weakness why is that happening well the market is still expecting at this point on balance here a Biden victory and perhaps even a blue wave which would be the most dollar negative scenario so I think the dollar weakness is a reflection of that at the moment so the RBA not too much unsurprising definitely policy action being taken of a more stimulative nature but this is what we were anticipating the other thing then on the calendar was to have a look at was the UK European sessions very quiet we then go into the US we've got factory orders at 3 o'clock ISM New York index as well coming out just before that durable goods but these revisions quite a quiet day and probably even likely to be more so borrowing anything unexpected given the fact that a lot of people are just waiting now for the main event to kick off later on today so that's it I'm going to leave it at that I'm going to wish you guys a good day and hopefully I'll see you online later on this evening and yet looking forward to it