 Okay, very good morning to you. Hope you're doing well. It is Wednesday the 17th of November and going to cover a few different things in a briefing I'm going to talk about the fact that US stocks advanced yesterday the S&P 500 Dow Rup 0.4 and 0.15 percent each respectively the Nasdaq Marginal outperformance up three quarters of 1% we're going to talk about the potential nomination of the next Fed Chair given some comments that we've heard we now have Somewhat a timeline of when to expect that announcement potentially at the back end of the week We're also going to do an update on the EU COVID situation restrictions coming back in force in the likes of Germany Austria Ireland and others so we'll have a look at what exactly is happening there and the impact That's having on the divergence with the euro against a dollar at this point in time and in some trending stock news You might have seen lucid one of the recent SPAC deals and EV maker Which is not profitable at the moment is now bigger than forward motor Quite incredible at the moment. It seems like the the EV makers are now the new Pumped-up stocks stocks at the moment and certainly that was evident yesterday So we'll have a look at some graphics to put that into context We've also got some updates on Netflix as well That's worth noting from a single-stop perspective. We've had UK inflation apps morning Which I'll comment on in the moment We've had all inventory data and then we'll have a look at the calendar for the day ahead, but to kick things off Yeah, let's start with the dollar So I've got the dollar index up to the side of me here And this is looking at dollar index futures and you remember last time we kind of had this particular Chart up the dollar index was trading at 95 when we're talking around that area was quite key from a technical perspective You can see here going back to the bottom of that 2019 move The volatility on the post or initial onset of the pandemic the recovery We had in September of that year and in the retest We had just around a month ago or so and the breakout that we've had since that point in time obviously coming at mid the Inflation figures that we've been seeing globally particularly in the US That's that's six plus percent reading that we had last week has really Acted as a catalyst for the technical breach for then the big push-up that we've had and Technically the dollars come to its next kind of strategic point from a technical perspective I'd say at 96 which starts to incorporate then some of these previous lows that we had in the end of 2019 and also around the summer in June of 2020 So definitely worth keeping an eye on this and we'll look at the euro in a moment But certainly the dollar Advance has put the yen against the yen now to its weakest in more than four years In terms of how the yen is performing against the greenback and the euro is at its lowest level since July of last year in 2020 just to add some context but looking at the overall broader charts then So euro dollars a little bit lower as you would imagine there was a momentary flicker Where the dollar just kind of shot up momentarily and hence the rationale behind here It wasn't one single a headline related move But you can see the s2 there acting as a support area on the daily pivots You can see a divergence though between the fact that euros lower Predominantly weighed on by some of that dollar strength albeit. I would say that that dollar pop overnight has been faded And the Dixie's pretty flat as it is at the moment obviously still holding on to recent gains of late But cables had a bit of an extension and is outperforming rough 35 pips here in in Sterling dollar and this comes after UK CPI has come out higher than expected at 4.2 percent Against expectations of 3.9 the core reading also coming in higher than expectations as well The core reading and just grab it here Was 3.4 percent above the expected 3.1 So what does this mean? Well, remember we had the jobs data yesterday from the UK and actually the furlough impact Not as as bad as many had feared now with the fact that this inflation figure is not Exactly a surprise the Bank of England have communicated inflation is going to go toward 5% in the coming months But the acceleration is more rapid than analysts were anticipating and so Many would say this kind of locks in now a December rate hike at the next meeting from the Bank of England given how Perhaps their communication misjudgment, but how close that conversation was in the previous meeting They obviously didn't pull the trigger one would imagine now that they Don't want at least a market will believe that they will go ahead now and and execute that at the end of the Year, but we are talking about Andrew Bailey in the Bank of England. So I Wouldn't count your chickens just yet Otherwise elsewhere equity markets pretty much sideways stock index futures in the US pretty much flat Just consolidated from the push-up yesterday. That's reflected in t-notes. Nothing really too interesting happening there perhaps crude oil just a little heavy Amid some of the strength of the dollar overnight, but all in all still fairly range bound at this point in time Nothing really too dramatic or interesting happening there specifically in the price right now and then gold Just coming off the lower bound of where we finished on the end of the US session yesterday So back up just hugging around the pivot level in the futures up for four dollars for the time being so let's jump into some of the news And to go with Asia pack first although the US did finish positive the MSCI Asia pack stock index which had been rising for four consecutive days is snapped that win streak in particular Japanese exports year-on-year did come in quite a bit softer than expected and and a Distinct slowdown came in at nine point four percent year-on-year for October below expected nine point nine and a slowdown from prior months 13% to draw some attention And obviously that helped exacerbate that that move in in dollar yen as well in the overnight session Which trades higher this morning Otherwise moving into some of the news stories Let's talk about Biden and the Fed chair. So basically Bloomberg had a kind of a source piece is when they cite someone familiar with the Conversations informed with the selection of the next Fed chair and they reported that Joe Biden will decide quote in the next Four days who will lead the Federal Reserve and obviously this is to horse race Jerome Powell the existing Fed chair or Fed Governor Leo brainard as the next credible opposition if you like to appell's reappointment now Couple things for one In the in the betting market power is the slight favorite You can see here actually that you know Bostick Ferguson Raskin any of the others there, you know might as well discount them They're not at all in this race. It's definitely between Powell and brainard You can see actually betting odd volume spiked yesterday As some of these latest source comments are starting to hit the tape And as you can see there's as we're going into let's say the four-day countdown I'd probably expect this to continue is a convergence of their odds coming towards each other As there is a degree of uncertainty or whether or not power will indeed Secure another term so at the moment power is still favorite But it's becoming more and more closer race as time goes on and we've got another four days to run of those sources to be believed So it could be that this comes out over the weekend Perhaps you could say that's tactical to avoid any market disturbance or initial breaking of the news Give the market a little time to chew over it on a Saturday and Sunday before market reopens for a more orderly response I can see that point of view. However, I don't necessarily think that even if brainard does get the nod And power has to step aside. I don't think that's a hugely dramatic event Degree of continuity is there market is very well informed about who brainard is and what her stance on policy is If anything as I said before she has a slightly more dovish tilt and so perhaps then that Is it is a supportive thing for some of the directional trends that we had with some of the equity movement to the upside of late and so on But yeah, that's that Before I move on just very quickly Don't forget to check out the hub the content hub on amp find me comm It's absolutely free and I added some new content In the careers section, you can see there's different sections here as interviews I have with industry experts as market analysis on different topics and career sessions So if you're a student, I know a lot of people have messaged me about applications at the moment for spring weeks And so on if you click on career sessions You can access the whole kind of suite of videos here that might be particularly useful for you and one we put out yesterday It's the first of some very concentrated Interview questions and how to tackle them and we did one yesterday This is our head of China who was a former Morgan Stanley equity trader and he We covered basically the subjects of how do you respond to a question that you really don't know how to answer It's kind of a classic one that a lot of can disrupt a lot of the interview process for a lot of students So do check that out. Otherwise, let's move back on on point to COVID and let's talk about the EU And I did mention this yesterday. I've mentioned it a couple times now In the last week, but there's been some movement island for one bars and restaurants must close by midnight now Cinemas and theatres must require proof of vaccination and people should work from home where possible These are the new measures that were announced by the Irish Prime Minister To deal with surging infections and rising hospitalizations that they're seeing Germany at the same time It's worth noting actually that Island Vaccination rates actually some of the highest in the world. Whereas Germany They actually have with less than 70% of fully immunized at this point in time in Germany And so they're lagging behind other countries like Spain Italy Portugal Portugal real standout actually on the upside for vaccination take up the country Germany reported yesterday the spread of the disease is accelerating cases over the past seven days and now a record and Deaths jumped to 265 to steepest one-day increase. It's the late May period of this year And then finally Spain the government in the Basque region is set to announce fresh restrictions Given some of the elements happening there and so what does this look like from a case rate point of view? Well, here you can see Austria at the top, which has been very aggressive Obviously having a necessity to do so to go back into restrictions Island as you can see Also very high in context of where we are in the UK Germany continue to head in the wrong direction and obviously But there's there's a difficulty here of jostling for position within the newly trying to form coalition government And so therefore obviously putting the nation back into an onerous lockdown Can have political consequence for favability and no one really wants to do that but then there's a Obviously a health crisis unfolding and so quite a tricky one for Germany to make decisive decisions at this point of time But quite quickly of course for their over economy and that of the eurozone France Portugal Spain much lower As I said vaccination rates here are much better Than what they are in Germany at least and so yeah, I mean from a euro point of view I mean very much just a mirror image of what we were just discussing with the dollar But if I put euro dollar on a daily chart here and you can start to see some of the price movement Obviously we talked about a week ago or so the importance of around that 115 mark Which was that peak in 2019 2020 and the breakdown of that has created some quite rapid deceleration or decline I should say in euro dollar coming on the back of the divergent play between a really developing in a negative way COVID situation which is gonna push back further The commencement of normalization of ECB policy Comparative to heightened inflation risks Relatively controlled health situation with an economy picking up. We had US retail sales the the firm as they've been since March Yesterday Walmart Home Depot showing really robust demand even as inflation Squeezes kind of purchasing power and that's then leading to the idea of rates rising sooner in the US But rates remaining on hold or policy on hold in Europe and hence then this downward direction with the technical breaches just being fairly Firm at the moment for euro dollars the next downside target really you can see is not until we get to the base of some of this price Consolidation we had around June summertime of 2020 and we'd still have another point or so to run beyond where we're at at the moment In that respect so yeah, definitely quite interested to continue monitoring the situation is obviously the worst Covid cases get the more Stringent the lockdowns the more economic impact that has the slower than it is for the ECB to be able to move on there on their policy All right, a couple of individual stocks stories. I just wanted to cover and gonna start off with one Which is a SPAC deal actually SPAC deal has been a little bit hit and miss in terms of their success, but certainly this is now proving to be one of the Definitely more successful ones and this is the electronic vehicle start-up lucid and their market cap yesterday went to 89 billion Which actually makes them bigger than Ford motor, which is just insane If you look at the chart here, I've got the black line Which is the lucid market van valuation then got the Ford market valuation and the GM one and actually You know lucid overtakes GM and Ford valuations in just one day GM slightly larger and forward at this present point in time And it came after the companies executives told investors that Reservations for its first vehicles and jumped and that production plans for 2022 were on track So those two things have got people in what already is a quite bullish mindset market in the EV space Really pumps at the minute and the company isn't actually profitable It's still in the early days of generating revenue Q3 revenue check this out Q3 quarter revenue was $232,000 and The company is worth more than four in GM. It's just in it's crazy market at the moment And that didn't really come from selling any cars either It came from a battery deal with a formula E electric racing leak So actually reported a net loss of 1.5 billion through the first nine months of the year So yeah, it's super interesting Rivian we had Then you know monster Performance out of the IPO and now you've got this happening as well So be really interested to see how this plays out just given the phenomenal rises We've been seeing these particular names of late The other thing that I want us to touch upon was Netflix. I thought this was just quite interesting really As you know Netflix and their quarterly earnings are always very much focused on their subscriber rates But as the market becomes ever-increasingly saturated, this is a really difficult metric I think for the company to handle in terms of longevity of managing their stock price from a board's point of view And so the company has taken the decision that they'll begin regularly and I understand from reading some of the articles There's weekly reporting viewership numbers for its top programs and films so Quite a distinct and major shift in their strategy because normally that's not shared And they they're normally quite guarded over those types of figures But it's kind of a similar thing to what you've had in other companies, you know take Apple for example trying to shift away from the over dependency of the share price based on markets perception of the iPhone solely but as Apple has tried to diversify it's also tried to pivot and spread, you know diversification is key to manage volatility And as Apple have done shifting to services and other wearable products the watch the earbuds and so on and so forth, you know Netflix is looking to do the same and I do think that this is quite an appropriate way of doing that and You know reporting weekly figures to me. I think is it is good. I think doing it weekly is also strategically quite important I think if you left it quarter to quarter and you had these quite lengthy blackout periods where the markets left guessing that's always a very Delicate and difficult situation to handle and so better than that you have more full Transparency, I think they've got an auditorium to verify their numbers and stuff like that So they should come with credibility And then the market can always price in the reality of what's happening and that then starts to Mitigate volatility upon the release of an earnings for example and Netflix obviously has larger deviations than a standard stock I would say Over over recent years So yeah, and the other thing of course as well for Netflix is that if you think about most blockbuster series that come out Although there's Amazon Prime and Disney and these other Apple TV and so on competitors in streaming space I mean Netflix is is the is the premier kind of market leader in content They spend an awful lot on it. So I actually think it's a positive as well in the sense that These are numbers that they know Netflix against its peers. They're gonna outperform It's probably gonna be better. They've just got more content And they come out and they throw some serious dollar at just pumping out, you know, there's red notice I think there's narcos Mexico series 3 at the moment. You've obviously coming off the back end of squid game I understand a squid game 2 coming out all these different things and I think those numbers will look really attractive Against their competitors and thus then I think then shifting away from subscriber base this will be a nice way to Clear out then that competitive differential in Investors sense. So yeah, quite interesting. The other thing is I'd love to get your comments on this So drop me a comment on the on the channel on the video I read I was just reading very very briefly. I was reading last night about redefined meat and basically, this is an Israeli start-up and They've basically Said to have cracked what's seen as the holy grail in the kind of catering business and the food industry Which is they've managed to really inject juiciness Into meat. So if you think about like vegan plant-based meat It's generally being like chicken nuggets and patties like beyond meat burgers things like that But apparently this firm can create like beef like real steaks and lamb flanks and things like that And it's been actually adopted by some big restaurant names including some Michelin restaurants as well So one would imagine the quality is is there and apparently then this meat that's being Printed It has the same structural components that resembles beef or chicken visually and in texture And apparently research suggests then that 3d printing can insert then the specific Layering in of safe fat into the content of other soy and proteins and so on that mimics them the composition of real meat And marbling which gives a better improved taste. So obviously I've not I've not eaten this yet Dying to try it, but I just love to know your guys thought. What do you think about 3d printed meat? Hit me up. Let me know what you think. Would you eat it? Would you not? Why do you think it's a good thing? Bad thing obviously is a lot of climate change strapped on the back of that as well So yeah, hit me up with your thoughts and let me know what you think Otherwise, let's just look at the date. So we've already had the UK data We've had well, we've got the EU HICP Reading coming out at 10 a.m. This morning, but this is the final reading for October So not expecting any fireworks there this afternoon US housing starts building permits Canadian CPI data is what's coming out You've got the AP or the DOE or living trees and just a quick Refresher the API's came out last night. You had a build Around half of what was expected at six hundred and fifty five thousand cushing those a draw of two point seven nine two million Probably the standout there as I said that will date it out this afternoon speaker wise You've got feds Mester Evans Bostick speaking afternoon and evening London time Mester a hawk non-voter Evans A dove a voter Bostick Hawk voter The latter two will be just after 9 p.m. So after the Wall Street close You do have the Christine the guard speaking today, but there's no text expected So then ECB Schnabel's one to look at Because schnape will be talking on economics and monetary policy outlook for the eurozone So could be potentially some comments there to keep an arm particularly in the context of what I described with the COVID and Implemented restrictions that we're seeing across different eurozone countries at present that'll be at 2 p.m. All right, that is it gonna let you guys get on with the day have a good one and If you're not already subscribed to the channel and you're watching this on YouTube Love for you to hit that subscribe button. Drop me a comment Love to get engaged engagement on the channel, and I will see you tomorrow. Take care