 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire.com where today We are getting you set for the PGA championship by talking to Andy Molotow bed spurts getting his read on the field read on This course and getting you set for Gauls second major of the year. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang You can find his work at the power rank calm ed golf major number two of the year coming up this week. How you doing today? I'm doing pretty well. I'm pretty excited for the major. I've had all the four majors kind of marked off on my calendar Knowing that kind of surprisingly, you know, my golf emails kind of have some of the highest open rates out of anything that I write so People who like to bet on football and like seven nuggets also like golf, which is which is pretty interesting So I've been digging for all the information I can it's kind of you know It's kind of interesting sitting here still waiting for you know Matchups to it to go up at some books You know, I've been trying to dig some stuff in the last week listen to you and Brandon on It's the heat check. Yeah. Yeah, and I was like, yeah, Jim We need to work on our rapport. You've never sung to me on this podcast, you know Certain sports so you Brandon been doing a little bit longer But do you really want me to sing to you because I feel like that's that's that's reviewed as a negative. I Don't know. It sounded pretty good. I wanted a half speed when I was listening to it this morning So man, I'm I talked way too fast at normal speed one and a half speed I don't think I could do with myself like listening to myself. No, it's no one and a half is fine I didn't try to just because you don't want stuff to go by too quickly Yeah, when your dog's pulling you everywhere If you're listening to a DFS podcast, does that mean we're gonna see at the power rank in the DFS contest this week No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, I'm looking I'm looking for betting insights, right? I mean, you're still talking about what matters and what golfers are gonna do best and like can you translate that into something for Betting I'm sure you can. I mean, I know Brand doesn't like Victor Holland this week. So maybe go against them in some matchups whenever whenever you can find those So, yeah, it's been an interesting it's an interesting week for me because I'm trying to find these bets And I've made a couple of them But I obviously don't originate any of this stuff, right? I really know what the sport of golf is So, you know, I'm trying to listen for other people, you know, trying to get you know I've been using stuff and get data golf With their scratch plus stuff So it's kind of like, I don't know it's frustrating because I can't do my own stuff But I guess it's kind of liberating because I didn't have to put Hundreds of hours of work into building a model either. So yeah, it's an interesting experience and and I think one that Is more and you know is more usual for people who are betting on stuff, right? Right. Well, I think that for me It's like it's a thing that's changed because I also don't have my own numbers for golf I will you know go through a different process but I think that I felt a lot more Free and lucid that a couple years ago before I was like doing my own modeling for other things Because I see how tough the market is and so I'm like the mindset changes of you know If you don't model NASCAR and like let's say you're like, oh, I'm not sure if William Byron can win this race I'll bet him to podium or bet him to top 10 now that I like You're in like the these you almost know too much like I know that the hold on top 10 markets is absurd And it gives you a lot it gives me at least a lot more paranoia So I go through I think a lot more work now with the stuff I don't model almost from the stuff that I do because I'm worried I'm betting a bad number because I just like a golfer overall What I will do is I'll get a data golf Lean on their tools look at their adjusted strokes gain stuff See if there's a golfer who I think is going to be undervalued by the market I will check that golfer and then I will I mean it's usually I'm checking Brandon's stuff I'll pull up his simulations over on numberfire.com see what they say about them And if he is showing value on them then I will bet it but for me it starts off with finding golfers I think I think will be undervalued by the market and going from there Which is Backwards from what it should be, but I think that that's kind of the way I have to play things and stuff I'm not modeling myself Right. I mean for me like I'm not even I don't even have any hunters on golfers I mean I like like I said, I barely know what the sport is so For me, it's listening to a bunch of people and saying, oh are there two and three Are there two to three different sources that I trust that are all basically saying the same things Yeah, and so that that's the kind of stuff Yeah, exactly right wisdom of wisdom of sharps Wisdom of sharps for sure. We'll bring in our own sharp here. Andy Molitor. He is on twitter at andy msf W. He's the director of content over at bet spurts, which is Blowing up right now a lot of good stuff over there across the board over at bet spurts He is also the coast of the deep dive podcast with your dinsik. He does brown bag bets as well We'll talk to him about the pga championship about this course how he's handicapping it and much more But firstly quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are still doing weekly podcasts throughout the non-nfl season. 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How you doing? Good. Yeah, dax second major of the year kind of snuck up on a guy I mentioned that to somebody I said I get into my cadence of you're familiar with that both you guys I mean just with the various sports you do you get in that cadence of adding How college basketball lines come out or gem with your NASCAR? It's the same thing every week and I get into this cadence Then I just kind of forgot like man, I can I can be hammering some lines for this next week Unlike friday saturday saturday, you know two months ago if I wanted to you know I don't like to get too crazy out if I unless I really see something in someone but I I already like him behind the eight ball this week. I regret not placing a bunch of bets on some guys I thought I was gonna like this week on like sunday because Some numbers have come down ready and I think maybe a Maybe a little bit of advice for anybody who's going to be betting the you know the us open or the I'm just called the British open. It's dumb to call it the open It's the British show, but I'm not sure what I decided with the branding Know that like if you like a guy and he's playing good in the tournament the week before You go bet them right now. That stuff's up already. You're not waiting for monday. So No, I mean I bet some wrong last week and you know when I actually don't know if it's moved but you know Andy you must be probably doing a lot of NBA or baseball betting like I've actually with my you know things are relatively light for me right now and so You know before the masters I actually just put a sticky note that had the four majors because I knew People in my newsletter would want content that week. So, you know, you just kind of like block out that week. So um I don't know you must be doing a lot of other betting because I've been looking forward to this week and it's been it's been an interesting journey Yeah, no, I mean I mostly do golf I bet some other people's baseball and I do dabble quite a bit in the NBA playoffs more than NBA At this point I've made more NBA bets for the playoffs than I did like during the regular season for sure Like I I enjoy that. I know some smart people Fed some good conversations and I've won like I've made good money and again No fault of my own just listening to the smarter folks and that's the beauty of the networking and having people who specialize but a little bit of baseball a lot of NBA and now it is going to get a little scant because Baseball's a grind if you really want to get into that and we're about to lose hockey and basketball here in couple weeks Well, I feel like part of the reason it snuck up on you is that Bet spurts is doing like everything now like I think you within the past couple months like golf has gone pretty bananas Formula one, I think I saw whether I don't know if it's you or four for four specifically But like there's been a lot of new stuff. So I feel like work actual work the non betting side of work It's probably been contributing to the surprise factor here too Yeah, just the the part of work that isn't just handicapping and finding and line shopping and betting It takes up a bit of time too, doesn't it now but uh and you know drew and I Dinsick we did a deep dive last night And it was just kind of a little bit of menagerie of we talked the pga. We talked the french open We talked the the lotteries tonight. We talked a little bit about the the preakness And we started to get into somebody asked a question about football, you know all the The leaks that led into the actual You know the schedule coming out and lines for week one Lines for some of the bigger games the international games regular season wind totals and That's kind of where we're headed here in about a month once I run out of basketball It's just I mean we're just going full board football I kind of forget about how much time a guy has to put into that. So june june's football. I guess Yeah, it's every week is football at this point, you know, I for me I use the time between Whenever football ends until baseball to kind of jam in as much so I can just like not worry about it later on but like That's because I don't do mba like I have that open gap in there because of that But if your people are doing mba like that kind of sucks up a lot of time for sure So we are indebted to you for being here for today to break down some golf and talking about that And it's a unique event for this week the pga championship The first time the pga tour has been to this course southern hills country club In more than a decade and it's basically a different course based on the renovations they've made too. So I want to talk about this broadly, you know from a template perspective How do you go about attacking an event when there's little or nor course data not specific to this week? We'll talk about that in a second, but broadly when there's no real course day to lean on How are you attacking things? Yeah, it's tricky because You know with any of these majors outside of augusta They switch venues every year. So you don't you don't have like a a normal tournament like the honda or the masters We just say let's see. How did people play here last year? What was the weather like? It wasn't a weird year or something. That's a good analog We can use that data but this it was played somewhere else and for 13 years into tween here and there It was played 15 years now. I think between here and there maybe 07. I believe it was and it was not only Is that data probably just bunk anyway because it's a bunch of players who are on the champions tour or god knows where right now It's it was a different course. They did a lot of renovating. It's an old course. It was built in the You know the great depression era. It's a very very old course. They put up I'm not sure how they came up with the money back then to just be building golf courses but they did and over the course of you know 80 90 years of some of the The landscape changed a little bit of the topography with erosion and the trees growing and a quick dried up Apparently so a lot of the challenges that they set in place when they built this course Got easy like the course got easier essentially and not only that they're not using You know clubs they made out of wood anymore So the guys are hitting the ball a little further than when this course was designed so the natural, you know design Challenges length in the course make it harder by making it longer and that's nice and all but There were other things they did here with some of the greens They shaved off the edges of the greens to make it harder for the balls to hold They changed up some of the bunkering. They changed up some of the fairway stuff They did trim some trees that and the fairways are nice and wide so If you are accurate and long you're gonna have a really nice time off the tee But then that second shot is going to be extremely difficult with it's been dry-ish. It's been hot And they're sloping small hard You know greens with a lot of runoffs false fronts and things like that So it's gonna be a lot of balls that's maybe hit the green And end up somewhere else. I think we're gonna see a lot of around the green work and chipping sand saves, uh, you know just overall scrambling here because this course is setting up to be Pretty damn difficult So it sounds like based on that that your process for like a new or renovated course Is just reading a lot trying to delve into the changes they made Is that kind of what you're doing is just consuming as much as you can to have a better feel for what the course will play like Yeah, and then also, you know talking to people and some of the reading too seeing like what are some decent analogs to this like What do you think is a good comp course to this and everyone has their own opinions on that and We're just seeing like longish course like long difficult courses Courses that take this particular skill set to be successful or what we believe You know, it's a lot of guesswork. Just like everything we do what we believe the skill set to be Where that skill set translates best and looking at who's been successful on those courses Who's been successful in those situations? We're also looking at possible 25 plus mile an hour wins. Yeah over the weekend which turn a tough course into, uh Does the winter even break park course? Which would be I mean for the folks that like carnage and want to cheer for the course This might this might be your valhalla. This is this is going to be something if it gets real windy Yeah, we're supposed to be it's supposed to get pretty hot too, right? Yeah, like thursday and friday highs in the 90s So if if again if things are just drying out, obviously they have so i'm sure they have some sprinklers But it's hard to keep it's hard to keep those green soft when it's been hot and dry for this long in that climate so A little cooler on the weekend, but yeah hot as hell coming into the weekend and then windy so It uh, the weather is going to add to another, you know layer of difficulty to a course that they They went out and pired a guide to say make this course more difficult so we can have another major here So you do all the reading with regards to the course you try to Give an angle for yourself as far as who benefits stuff like that make those tweaks for for course fits How does it change your betting approach like are you betting different markets? Do you change your unit sizes? Do you change how much you go in on the event or do you feel like You've done enough research where you feel confident and kind of attack things Similarly to new courses you would for a course that's more established I absolutely bet differently Different weeks with different courses with different fields based on What the distribution or results is going to look like there was a week a couple months ago I can't remember which one I was I can go look at my results sometime But I bet a lot of top 40 prices on like people that weren't supposed to make the cut like real You know, I'm kind of boomer bust lower end guys like they're on the edge of the field They weren't terrible But you can get some really nice prices on these guys because they they were a high ceiling Incredibly low floor, you know, and it was that kind of field where nobody knew there wasn't it was a bad field So I'll just say it like it was a bad field There wasn't a lot of top-end players there Where a lot of these guys could sneak into the top 40 just by kind of redlining for a day or two And he got big prices on him, you know, and then you end up with places like You know, maybe the masters or some of these ones where everybody shows up because it's big money Even just some of the bigger purse ones and I will bet differently because I don't see people like that Just hey, this guy's gonna sneak into the top 40s This is more of a cream rises to the top kind of place And I think that's where I've landed on with the pga championship this week I think it's gonna end up being the best players near the top. I know Recent history says otherwise with you know, and you can't dog on fill But at that point he was a he was essentially on the on the champions tour. He's a senior player He was 250 to 1 some places and he got it done But I mean, it's it's a guy who'd done it before so It's not the same as just somebody coming out of nowhere and winning a major championship So I do believe it's going to be someone in that, you know, under 30 40 to 1 range that does end up on top here and I have bet accordingly. I'm not taking long shots some of these guys that I would bet Like I'm going to take a stab at this guy 100 to 20 to 1 150 to 1 Those guys just you know what this guy is going to be a top 30 bet for me I believe he can play well his ceiling is high But the you know, if you take all these players that are in the top 10 That's a lot of hurdles for a guy like that to jump Just like he could have the best week of his career Finished tied seventh and that's just because there's Rory and you know, Schaeffler and spieth and everyone's just ahead of him and That's golf. So sometimes you're super right and the guy still doesn't win the tournament Yeah, that makes a ton of sense with with all the top players being here Are you betting mostly outrides or you know with majors you get a lot of other Fun markets. Are you are you looking for those kind of more rare markets with the major or or just the traditional ones? I did mention one earlier this morning when I was talking to someone there was I don't remember if it was a pga or a us open, but somebody hung A few places will have this this week. I guarantee it was worse Worst score in a round Like it was you know an over 88 and a half or something will somebody have and Because you end up with some of these these club pros they get to play they get to qualify for this and It's an incredibly difficult course even for these scratch golfers Who are coming in and have to see you know tiger and the group ahead of him and stuff and someone someone blows up So that's a fun. It's fun because it's it's like your outright gets rolling and you're just cheering for birdies It's the opposite. This guy ends up, you know And it can be anyone, you know So some guy goes six over through four holes and you're then you add you have to star him on the app They're like, all right now we're tracking you buddy We need you to go in the water and so that's a fun one I I usually will play at a really difficult course if they have markets up But for the most part I'm I'm light on outrides lighter than some I'm usually the guy who plays between four and six I don't play a ton just because it's it eats up a lot of my bankroll if I If I'm betting just a massive amount of those I do a lot of matchups Every week probably between four and four and eight full tournament matchups And then every round as the matchups or the three balls come up. I play those I usually have decent luck with those and then some like, you know The questioning guy is just posed as far as changing your strategy some weeks Top 20 top 30 top 40 bets even top 5 and 10 come into play Depending on what my strategy looks like and some weeks. I just don't end up playing those as much But man, you there are some you want some props go shop around right now All kinds of stuff up every week now golf golf props have flourished in the last couple years Well that uh that high number one is fun, especially with the wind being what it is this week You're talking about the greens and how they're being shaved off and stuff like that The problem is I don't think I could track it like you mentioned the starring them on the app thing Because I use that for my dfs player pool and if I have someone starred and they're 16 over and around It's going to make my heart stop every time I check the app So I couldn't do that part. But I do like the prop overall like but I just can't handle that part Mentally because of the way I use that app Yeah, I've I've ended up having to use different apps different like golf Scoreboard apps like I have one on my phone and one up there. It's like this is dfs. These are outrides And I have a spreadsheet like these are my these are my uh guys I'm cheering against because yeah, it messes with your head when you look down It really does. I I can't deal with that part. So let's talk here about the favorites Hopefully not in play for the over 88 in those situations. We got john rom and scottie cheffler both 12 to 1 over at fandals sports book Let's talk with them first any lingering value for you at those numbers Or are you looking for more mid-range options if we're not looking at long shots? What are you thinking about cheffler and rom this week? I ended up skipping over both of them. I believe they can win We saw rom play well in a bad field on an easy course in mexico and get it done Didn't look like he was even really giving it as all still won the tournament He's still very good. There was a lot of talk about him. Maybe being a little diminished this year It's still just hard to win a golf tournament. Even if you're the best so I don't think rom's you know gotten worse. He's still where he should be but Him and scottie probably priced about where they need to be so I skipped over those 12s ended up on some guys in that next tier with uh, just Based on like we said, I looked at the course. You mentioned that I did all the reading did the You know comp courses did the skill compositions like what do these guys do? Well, what do they do poorly? How does that affect them? And what is their form and then you know in that next year? I didn't end up betting rory and jordan speed so I do have some you know, they're shorter odds, but not the shortest not the favorites Not usually my mo but like I said course like this Look at this field. I do like both of those guys a lot and it'll be it'll feel weird Cheering for jordan speed. I haven't done that a lot. It's been the other way around for many years And jordan speed is a fan dual guy. So we're uh, we're on board of that one for sure Now, when did you when did you get him? Did you get him? After the weekends, uh, when he had that surge or do you get him before? I guess I don't know if it's odd shorten that much, but uh, they Did me play well last week. They have come down just there's a trillion reasons to bet him Even if they're not the right reasons. So it's like, oh, he's from here Or so it's this career slam. I'm gonna bet him. So like I it's another one too Where I knew everybody was gonna bet him and I'm not sure why I didn't grab it earlier So didn't get the I've got close to 20 to 1 on him. So not the worst number But I know some people who got much better numbers Uh, rory, I believe was right around 16, which is where it's at right now at fan dual. So Sitting on okay numbers. I'm never gonna complain. I don't know. It was a tweet. I made a while back I said that it's like, you know, you cash the chalk and golf and people get mad like, oh, they were favored Well, good job. But and if you if like rory's 16 to 1, he hit a 16 to 1 and like a first touchdown score market People are slapping you on the back and putting you on their shoulders. You're so smart. So I'm I'm more than fine cashing a 16 to 1. That's uh, any money in my pocket's great Now I like rory too. What was selling point for you to pull the trigger on rory at 16 to 1? Looking at his skill set the way he can hit his tee shots were something that's kind of kept me away from him Last year into the season. He had a bit of a mess off the tee And it came down to his increasing his club speed trying to get to that spot where he was driving it As far as he is and he does drive it a long ways. That's kind of come into He's come off the the two-way miss he had there. It's been a little more accurate lately He can hit a nice draw. There's a probably an advantage to players who can do that Maybe even some lefties if you like just betting a bunch of lefties for first round leader So hitting the ball a country mile and hitting a nice draw and then it just his form that last round in augusta, which A lot of it was probably pressure off because he didn't actually have a chance to win But the fact that he could go up there and attack a difficult course and score like he did And then his form over the last you know month or so as well has me has me liking him quite a bit Awesome Andy, um, let's get away from our rights a little bit. Are there any other markets in which you see value? So like I spoke to before it's a tournament where I really really struggled to say I'm going to take this guy at 200 to 1 because I I think the nine and I can believe that number is wrong and it should be 125 to 1 And I still just don't believe there's enough chances for a guy like that to come out and win this tournament against this field So like we said with the finishing positions and that's uh, that's the great thing You know, obviously fando podcast fando probably has the most Markets for this. This is hard to find a lot of other places I'm a big top 30 guy top 30 top 40 you guys have so that's always nice And there's a bunch of guys that fall in there where it's like if this were maybe a different tournament I'd be betting mito perrera. I'd be betting johnny vegas. I'd be betting erild varner and definitely definitely matthew fits patrick But there are longer shots that i'm just too scared to Waste money on them when watch one of them wins now. That's going to drive me up I'll be sitting there with my uh, two to one top 40 price feeling feeling silly, but again, it's uh hindsight's 2020 It's pretty easy to figure out what you should have bet after the tournament But mito perrera plus 115 to top 40 is man. That's probably one of my favorite bets I'm probably gonna write that one up this week. Tommy fleetwood's another one right in that price range To top 40. I think there's a lot of value on some of these guys that have the skill set But man, they just maybe don't have the They don't have it yet to go out here and beat a super high end field on a course really nobody's played before Now uh fandal doesn't have matchups listed yet and you mentioned you do like matchups quite a bit Um, if you found any matchups you like in other books, uh, so far and he's any guys you're specifically King in on to bet on or fade in matchups once those are posted Yeah, it stinks because this is another guy and this is part of betting. I guess you got to be ready to You know bet on a guy bet on a guy love a guy cash on a guy and then turn your back on him Just it's a cold world and uh patrick reed is another one that i've i've been against a little bit lately with uh He did some equipment changes beginning of the year his t-shirt has been off There's a lot of these where it's going to be a dog leg And then when you land the fairway is going to be tilted against it. So landing So reverse camber they're calling this which is sounds way fancier than it is just a A slanted fairway that if they land wrong if you don't land that t-shirt how it should you're not shaping your shots properly There's gonna be a lot of t-shirts that are in this rough. It's Tallish for mutants. It's hard for people to don't have the club speed to get out of it So patrick reed with his t-shirts and like two years ago I would have probably bet him to win this like this is a he's a grinder It's a perfect course for him, but he's a guy i'll probably be against again Everything's price dependent. I'll need to make sure it's uh, you know within the range I I think it's acceptable. There's been truthfully a lot of books that have been a little slow with matchups this week I have a lot of places. I end up shopping don't have much up yet I've I've only seen a few and you know with With names like this they end up just doing these round robins where it's like jordan versus rory and rory versus Rom and rom versus jordan and you end up with just a bunch of If you all rank those guys pretty close to the market You just scroll past like the first 50 matchups and there's not much to bet anyway so I am gonna look a little deeper in the markets and find a few guys that I like Maybe some of the people I mentioned for top 20 top 30 40 like herald munios or excuse me herald varner is uh A slight underdog to sebastian munios who obviously played well last week getting a little steam off his name, but That's uh, that's what I have circled for now. So Varner the third Love it hv3 baby. Let's try now. I do want to ask you before we let you go You can place one outright right now at their current numbers It could be macaroy or speed if you want to any anyone on the board. Who is your favorite outright right now? you guys have Pretty much one of the best numbers in the market on sam burns. Yes, 48 to 1 There's a lot of places that have 35s on sam burns. So right now at fando 48 to 1 He is somebody I have bet this week I like him a lot ended up avoiding him last week when he was getting a lot of love But this is just another another course where his skill set definitely plays in. I have him pretty Pretty high in my model. It's not Not somebody who's crazy long off the tee But long enough and pretty accurate avoids a lot of three putts and yeah, I'm kind of in love with that guy We'll be talking about sam burns later in the podcast. Just a little teaser He will be brought up later on as well That is andy molitor check him out on twitter at andy msf w and check out all of his work over at bet spurts And of course a deep dive podcast and brown bag bets as well andy Good luck to you this week for the pga championship. Good luck to you with all the work stuff going on too We appreciate the time and hopefully we'll talk to you again soon Yeah, thanks for the time always great talking to you guys. Thanks, andy Covering the future Big thank you once again to andy molitor for swinging by and breaking down his thoughts on the pga championship again Check him out on twitter andy msf w find his work over at bet spurts a deep dive podcast and brown bag bets Do you want more thoughts more discussion around? Modeling pga and just kind of pga in general andy and drew had on abnormally distributed Two weeks ago. I think on the the deep dive podcast And that was a really fun interview that I enjoyed listening to I sent that to brandy kadula as well for him to listen to because that was just a A good discussion and it's it's fun to hear very smart people. I know eddie listened to abnormally distributed on Circles off to drop his ola But just overall like good to gather insights from as many smart people as we can For sure. I mean he did his phd in machine learning and was about to take an academic job and then Basically bet a bunch of uh teasers on week four nfl pre season And won a bunch and went to his job and found it horrible and decided to bet sports We're living so his circles off Interview that they did about a year ago is my favorite sports betting podcast ever I agree. I'd say it's right out there for sure. Yeah, and I haven't had a chance to listen to this one, but um, but yeah, he's certainly interesting He he actually would post every single match up for golf tournaments last year And so, you know, that's that's kind of one of the things I do this week is just go look at his twitter account and hope He's posting that spreadsheet with all his results. He is not this year unfortunately But i'm sure there's a lot of uh, yeah, there's a lot of good stuff, uh about how to model Anything really? I mean it's kind of more You know, I don't think he gave too many details about exactly what he's doing But you know, I mean clearly has the ability to use machine learning techniques But what I think is also clear from his podcast appearances is that he spends a lot of time Beyond just pressing return on a computer right i'm thinking through everything And um, yeah, that definitely definitely worth checking out Yeah, you can find that one the one I was talking about by going to the deep tide podcast feed um And then also like he said the circles off podcast and the good thing there is it's a smart guest, obviously But it's also smart people asking good questions like rob asked good questions But then also drew an ante did too. So I think that's the the key there So if you want more in-depth stuff from there as well, I'd recommend both those podcasts To get insights on modeling golf and just general sports betting info Let's move now to covering the future for this week ed What is on tap for you as you take a look at the landscape for the pga championship? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I'm I'm actually not planning on talking about any golf bets because as I've already mentioned I don't originate anything I mean, I have made some bets at that tiger to make the cut. I like minus 115 um There's some both some numbers and some some other golf pros that I Consulted that think think that there's value there. There's a couple other bets But I thought I'd take this week to talk about a bet scope baseball So bet scope is a tool that Colin Davey has developed essentially so that you can like bet your hunches, right? So there's a tool where you can say oh, well, I think the win probability for this team should be So and so instead of what the markets have You put that into the tool and then it spits out the best bets at whatever sports books that you have And so this is a great tool if you have some beliefs about, you know, what should happen in game But in baseball, I I don't have any So I've been messing around with a different approach. So I'm essentially looking at a sharp sports book That's not on on the thing. So I'll take like circa and look at what Their money line implies in terms of probability what the total implies in terms of how many Runs there should be in the game put that into the bet scope tool and let it figure out what markets have bit are the best And what it's been telling me since I've done this is that like there there's some alternative markets It's not necessarily like the total that's giving you the best value But it's an alternative total that's potentially giving you the best value So we're recording this on Tuesday the Yankees are playing the Orioles and A lot of sharp sports books thought the total was a little bit too high So you put that into to bet scope and what it'll tell you is not necessarily but the The the total for the game, which was uh, I think it was set at eight I think it was set higher some places but The sharp spoke sports book thought that was a little bit high and then let's go put out Oh, well don't bet under eight bet under seven plus 170 Because there's value on that and that's all the work that con has done to figure out what the best markets are In which sports book might be off At at the on these alternative markets, there was another one also the Yankees against the white socks last weekend in which When I changed the moneyline probability just a little bit it actually said, you know bet Yankees minus two and a half on the run line So that bet them at whatever price it was. I think it was a plus 160 or something And the Yankees ended up winning by a bunch and covering that so Go check out the bet scope mlb tool. It's it's up. I've been playing around with it I intend to do some more. Um, like I said, I don't really have any hunches of my own And it's not even something where I'm trusting my own model I'm trusting sharp sports books and you know, there's also other things that you can do like look at Projections for certain props like picture props and strikeouts and stuff like that go to sites that have You know ensemble estimates of that And and put that in the best scope tool and see what comes out And it's a tool that automatically figures out the best markets for you to bet And it's actually if you've read ed miller's book Like if you read the logica sports betting you can like Take everything you learn from that book and apply it to bet scope like because the the learnings you you the things you read about in that book are so Easily encapsulated by the stuff that collins built over at bet scope Um, so that's why I find it like super interesting because I just read Finally read the full book uh this past winter and everything you talk about is like, okay They've had movement on A spread they might not have moved the alternate spread in tandem with that So you can find maybe not no hold market But you can find inefficient markets because they may not have correlated the markets the way they should and that's why having that You know going to a sharp sports book seeing what they say and then plugging that in I think that the Logic behind that makes a lot of sense. You can also find uh via that find lagging sports books that may be Right not saying copying the line, but you know, maybe they're uh following it a bit Find stuff like that. So I think that the logic there is applicable not just to Betting mlb totals and stuff like that, but it could be something you could use for any sport. They offer honestly Yeah, for sure and and you think about how these markets are correlated. You just made me think about how If you're gonna move any single nfl season regular season win total You should really move all the other 31 correct because they're all correlated and that actually doesn't happen Which is why often when you look at the entire market like the sum of total wins is Three or four wins greater than the number of possible wins You know, I mean, I'm not saying that that makes it an easy market to beat by any stretch, but um, but yeah, that's it's the same idea yeah, and That stuff does still leak through those, you know, just thinking about it in different ways thinking about okay I've got this hunch. What's the best way to attack it? There are tools that can help you do that whether we bet scope or other stuff and Take advantage of a pretty good time in sports betting in terms of the books at your disposal But also the tools you have as well from my cover in the future going to pga and talking about that guy We teased earlier on sam burns. I want to focus on him because I think he's a bit Overlooked by the market this week not just the 48 to 1 outright a fan dual sports book but also in some other markets too And part of that could be because burns has missed the cut each of this past two like traditional stroke play events But the one before that he won the vows bar between those two missed cuts He and billy horschel finished second in team play at the zara classic And I think that the two missed cuts recently may be under playing hit where his form is at right now The key thing with burns, which andy mentioned is how well rounded he is he doesn't have Big holes in his game, which you can't really have at a course this tough It burns doesn't if you look at fantasy national look at their ranks the past 50 rounds burns is 33 in distance gained 28th and approach 43rd around the green for the chipping stuff that andy mentioned with the way the greens are being built up Look at the past 100 rounds on bank grass Burns ranks 32nd there all together burns is 23rd in data golf's true strokes gained across the past six months And that stretch includes a string of missed cuts that he had in january and february And he seems like he's passed whatever issues he had in that three events stretch burns Doesn't the best history in majors? He's had no finishes better than 29th But he's also in better form now than what he's been in previously and like you know You kind of are our bad in majors until you aren't like that's the way things work Kadecki Matsuyama couldn't win a major until he won a major So I don't want to use that as a way to dismiss a guy like this, especially when it is a guy who is relatively young still the only recent major for burns was the masters He did miss a cut there, but We talked with brandon a lot about how debutants at augusta tend to struggle burns did so I think that's pretty Excusable to struggle there. I talked to brandon to see what his numbers said about sam burns He's showing value on him in every key market and he mentioned the 48 to 1 outright Brandon's numbers do show value there. They show value plus 490 to finish top 10 He's also plus 210 to finish top 20 I am Betting into the highest hold market by taking his top 20 odds But I do think that it's still fair value there after accounting for that And it gets me up to you know 33% odds of cash in that ticket which I do think is the way I want to play things for this week Brandon's numbers again do show value on him to finish top 20 So my official bet for the podcast is sam burns top 20 at plus 210 But what I would say is If you want to get more aggressive with burns It does seem like there is value elsewhere in the market too To potentially dabble in there 48 to 1 to win 490 top 10 plus 210 to be top 20 I think that he does have an upside based on What he's shown in some tougher field I think he was pretty good in the hero world challenge doing a tougher field there But I'll go with a plus 210 to finish top 20 for this week and as if you Uh dabbled in a sam burns research yet in your uh pga championship, uh search Uh, not yet. I mean, I may look a little bit more. I think it's always interesting to Find golfers that have had a couple bad weeks Even though they have a good track record over Of course to the year and also vice versa golfers that have done really well and Maybe are getting a little bit too much credit I was actually just looking at his profile over on data golf and it looks like he's pretty strong in everywhere except for driving accuracy Or is just slightly below pga average, but from what you guys are saying on the podcast It sounds like these have some pretty far Wide fairways. So yeah That shouldn't matter as much. Yeah, so seems like someone that has a good profile for this course Uh, otherwise a very solid golfer and that's what you're going to need Yeah, Brandon sent me um his His rundown of like each guy's top 10 odds versus what his numbers say they they should be at and There were only two guys who were seven to one or shorter to finish top two and actually showed good value They were sam burns and rossel henley So it's a tough It's tough to bet these non outright markets because the hold is so high But I think with burns specifically you can still get some value there. So sam burns plus 210 to finish top 20 For this week That is all that we have here for for covering the spread for this week for the pga championship We want to give one final big shout out to andy molater though Check him out on twitter at andy molater and that or andy msf w and check out his work at bet spurts The deep dive podcast and the brown bag bets as well ad you were talking about seven nuggets saturday Will that be out early this week for the for the golf major? How does it work for this week? No, we thought about doing that But the open rate is is a lot less on thursday than on saturday. So makes sense. So I had to stick stick with saturday We would have been having a lot of interesting things. We still do usually at least an nfl one every week and then mba And golf and other things. So, um, oh, yeah, I mean we probably Yeah, we did some live predictions last time for live We did some uh, kind of in in tournament predictions with the masters last time. So, uh, might do that again Actually, I haven't I yeah, it's the first time I thought about that this week because I've been taking Yeah email all week. So, um, but yeah, you can get that at the power rank com sign up for my free email newsletter We'll be talking about pga this week and then uh seven nuggets saturday Alrighty again to get the emails go to the power rank comm and sign up there check out ed on twitter at the power rank I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s ed mentioned our dfs podcast with myself and brandon gaddula who I mentioned 16,000 times this podcast thing I mentioned brandon either way That is up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get that Wherever you get your podcast to search for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed there Hit subscribe and also subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for this week. Good luck to you with your pga championship bets or anything else You're betting. We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network What's up guys? This is jordan spieth. If you're watching this video, please like and subscribe to the fan dual youtube channel