 Uzbekistan sits at the center of the map in a neighborhood of great powers trying to obtain influence in the region. Being the only doubly landlocked country in the world besides tiny Liechtenstein, the continentality of Uzbekistan also poses a major hindrance to their development. Yet, great potential still lies in the Central Asian nation, if it plays its cards right in the next few decades. With the population nearly equal to that of all its Central Asian neighbors combined, an abundance of natural resources, and great growth potential, what is the geopolitical situation of Uzbekistan, and what lies in store for the country going forward? Uzbekistan finds itself as a descendant nation of Turkic nomads coming from Northeast Asia into Central Asia and the local Iranian peoples of the region, creating a blend of Persianates, Turkic, and Islamic influences. Though many polities existed under the greater Uzbek identity, such as Hiva and Bukhara, the modern political history of Uzbekistan began during its time under Soviet rule. The Hivan People's Soviet Republic, the Bukhara People's Soviet Republic, and parts of the Turkistan Autonomous Soviet Republic were regrouped into the Uzbek SSR in 1924. Though the Republic was predominantly populated by Uzbeks, minority groups of Karakalpaks and Kazakhs remained in the Northwest, as well as a good number of Tajiks and Russian-slash-Ukrainian settlers. Uzbekistan, like the rest of the Soviet Republics, lacked autonomy from the Soviet federal government, and often suffered from its policies. One of these moves in particular that has damned the Uzbek state is its border with Central Asian neighbors Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. As well Uzbekistan received the lion's share of the Furgana Valley, their access to it was cut off by the very mountainous corridor connecting the valley to the mainland, and the flatland that connected Furgana to the rest of Central Asia was located in Tajikistan. Though this was not as big of a problem during the Soviet years, as the region's economy was completely controlled by the Central State, Stalin strategically created these messy borders to ensure Russian dominance in this region in the future. The Soviet Union also destroyed the RLC through irrigation programs in an effort to boost the cotton economy of Uzbekistan by diverting water sources into these irrigation canals. Though cotton production increased greatly, the historical fishing industry of the RLC was destroyed, and its remnants have been divided by new deserts forming in its former waters. It was also a curious decision by the Soviets to decide to grow cotton in Uzbekistan of all places due to how dry it is, though it was probably because the labor in Uzbekistan was easier to exploit than in places in southwest Russia since Uzbekistan's industrial economy was far less developed and cotton is such a laborious crop to harvest. Uzbekistan declared independence from the Soviet Union on the 31st of August 1991 at the decree of President of the Uzbek SSR Islam Karamov, who subsequently became President of the Republic. While he continued to rule in an authoritarian manner to his predecessors in the USSR with tight government control of the economy, his independent country faced brand new problems with the borders inherited from the Uzbek SSR. These geographic realities, coupled with the bunker state mentality of the Karamov regime, gave Uzbekistan tense relations with its neighbors, especially Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where the borders are extremely messy. Uzbekistan unsuccessfully intervened in the Tajikistan civil war, further worsening relations between the two countries. Uzbekistan experienced great economic growth during the Karamov period, but standards of living did not increase much due to how tight government control the economy was. After his death in 2016, Shavkat Mirzioyev became the president, pushing great reforms throughout Uzbekistan. He began opening the economy more, slightly increasing the civil liberties of Uzbek citizens, and taking a much more open stance in global affairs. Moving now to geography, Uzbekistan is doubly landlocked right in the middle of Central Asia. They are bordered by Kazakhstan to the north, Kyrgyzstan to the east, Tajikistan to the south east, Afghanistan to the south, and Turkmenistan to the southwest. Nearly all of Uzbekistan is located between the Amudaria and Surdaria rivers, whose irrigation canal supply Uzbekistan with the water it needs to grow its cotton. The origin of the Amudaria is in Tajikistan, which has become a major problem in recent years as Tajikistan hopes to increase its energy output by damming up the river, and assert itself over its larger neighbor. The Surdaria has two origins, both in Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan has a great deal of control over the southern portion of the country, or the Karadaria originates. Climatically, the vast majority of Uzbekistan is arid or semi-arid, while eastern parts of the country feature more continental climates due to their high elevation. While most of the country is flat, these eastern regions tend to be more mountainous, with the major exception being the Fergana Valley, which hosts a large portion of the Uzbek population. This is another major flaw of Uzbek geography, along with the fact that it is a low land desert nation, with its water supplies originating in other countries. The corridor connecting the populous and fertile Fergana Valley with the rest of Uzbekistan is very mountainous, which makes connecting the two regions of the country extremely difficult. The flatlands that connect the rest of Uzbekistan to the Fergana Valley are actually in Tajikistan, another reason tensions are heated between the two countries. Moving over to demographics, Uzbekistan's 34.3 million people form a great plurality of Central Asia's 76 million people, individually dwarfing each of its neighbors. Compare Kazakhstan's 19 million, Tajikistan's 9.5 million, Kyrgyzstan's 6.6 million, and Turkmenistan's 6 million. These people mainly live in the more fertile lands of the east, not far from the border with Tajikistan, as well as in the Fergana Valley and around the Ambudari River, in the lands of the former Khanate of Hiva. The Kisselkoum Desert in the northwest is very sparsely populated, as well as the autonomous Republic of Karakalpakstan. In terms of birth rate, Uzbekistan enjoys a moderate fertility rate, reaching 2.8 births per woman in 2020, and on a slight upward trend. Unlike non-Central Asian former Soviet republics, Uzbekistan does not suffer from low fertility in a rising elderly population, meaning they are able to use their youthful population to grow their economy. However, a country can face major unemployment issues if there is a large youth bulge in the population. Luckily Uzbekistan's modest population growth has led to only marginal unemployment problems, reaching about 6% in 2020. At the same time, this figure may not be completely accurate due to the nature of the government and how they count unemployment, and so figures could be as high as 20%. At the same time, with population growth being limited to such confined areas in such a short time, population pressures could still be a major issue for Uzbekistan. The easiest solution for the country would be to move some of these people out to the western parts of the country, near the Ambudariya and Sirdariya rivers. This particular issue will be discussed later. Ethnically Uzbekistan is made up primarily of Uzbeks, who make up around 83% of the population. Tajiks make up about 4% of the population officially, but there is great fluidity between the Uzbek and Tajik identity, as many Tajik speakers who are ethnically Tajik still identify as Uzbek and Uzbekistan, and some estimates put up to a third of Uzbek's population as Tajik. About 2% are Russian, mainly in Tashkent, 2% are Kazakh, mainly in the Kizoklum desert, and 2% are Kharkhalpaks, a group with their own autonomous republic in the northwest of the country who are closely related to Kazakhs. The vast majority of Uzbekistanis identify as Muslim, around 94% of the population, while 4% identify as Russian Orthodox. The Uzbek economy remains one that relies on its natural resources to keep up with international trade. Cotton is obviously one of the country's biggest exports, at around 16% of all Uzbek exports. Uranium and natural gas are also extracted in Uzbekistan and are important for its economy. 18% of Uzbekistan's economy is generated from the raw material sector, while employing nearly 26% of the population. Something encouraging is that while just over 13% of Uzbekistanis are employed in the industrial sector, it generates more than a third of the economy. This means that if Uzbekistan grows its industrial sector, millions could potentially be lifted out of poverty. An industrial farming could make cotton production much more efficient. But today Uzbekistan remains a relatively poor country, with a GDP per capita of just $9,000 in purchasing power parity. Though the country has seen pretty steady economic growth over the past few decades, reaching a GDPP of $300 billion, the vast majority of the population remains poor. Data from 2011 shows that over 60% of Uzbekistanis live below $1.90 a day, with rates of poverty like that seen nowhere else outside Africa. Unfortunately, the Uzbekistani people have not been given much of a chance to let their economy grow until very recently. From the country's independence in 1991 to his death in 2016, Islam Khadimov ruled the totalitarian bunker regime in Uzbekistan. Khadimov ruled with an iron fist as he suppressed free elections and freedom of speech and forced state control of the economy and worsened relations with nearly all of Uzbekistan's neighbors, all of these things keeping the Uzbek people in abject poverty. Uzbekistan was ranked consistently near the bottom of freedom scores under the Khadimov regime. After his death in September of 2016, Uzbekistan entered a new era under Shavkat Mirzoyev. He took a much more open foreign policy stance, visiting several countries in his first year in office, and brought great new potential in building relations with Uzbekistan's neighbors. Mirzoyev has also taken steps to open the economy, not only to the rest of the world, but allowing the citizens to participate in a free market. Still, the country has great ways to go before it has a functioning market economy independent from state control. While still authoritarian, Mirzoyev's reforms have opened Uzbekistan extensively, and the country no longer ranks at the very bottom of freedom indices. In regards to foreign relations, Uzbekistan possesses a complex position in the world due to its central location on the Eurasian continent. It passes mainly through the Russian sphere of influence, continued from the Soviet era with organizations like the Commonwealth of Independent States and formerly the Collective Security Treaty Organization, but also passes in the Chinese sphere of influence, as the Chinese continue to put money in the pockets of Uzbek government officials through projects like the Belt and Road Initiative. Uzbekistan's place in this initiative is crucial. As once at the center of the historic Silk Road, it will continue to be the link that connects Europe and the Middle East to China. The amount of money that Uzbekistan has received from China for development projects has inevitably indebted them to China, pushing them closer to the Chinese debt trap, but nowhere near to the extent of neighbors Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Uzbekistan, while having improving relations with its immediate neighbors, still has uncertainty in each of these relationships. Relations with Tajikistan are the coldest, as the two nations have historic quarrels, including the whole of Tajikistan historically being controlled by Uzbek policies and Tajikistan trying to dam up Uzbekistan's water. The whole south of Kyrgyzstan is dominated politically and economically by Uzbekistan, as it sits next to the populace for Ghana Valley, and rough mountainous terrain separates it from the political centers of Kyrgyzstan in the north. This fact has obviously made relations uneasy. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan both have controlled portions of the Sirdarya and Amudarya rivers, respectively, that are relatively lightly settled. I predict that Uzbekistan's steadily growing population proximity to both these regions could create future tensions as Uzbekistan tries to find new lands to host its new population and growing industrial-grade agricultural sector. So what does the future of Uzbekistan look like? Judging by the factors I presented, I can make a few educated guesses as to how we are seeing Uzbekistan develop alongside its neighbors. I believe there will be some major destabilizing event that will occur in Central Asia, mainly due to population pressures but also because of the messy borders around the Forgonna Valley, competing Russian, Chinese, and local interests, and the damming of the rivers in the region. The most likely outcome of such a conflict, in my opinion, is one of the great powers intervening and restoring order, either Russia or China. I would see it much more likely that China would pull this off due to Russia's weakening influence in Central Asia outside of Kazakhstan, and China's growing developments in the region. China would probably continue to prop up the previous regimes that existed in the region but with a tighter leash than before. Uzbeks discontented with the Chinese controlling their nations would likely create extreme nationalist or populist movements in backlash. I could easily see these populist movements becoming Islamist, giving the Uzbeks a rallying cry for the other discontented people groups of Central Asia to rise up and unite against foreign influence. This leads to the other likely proposal for what I think it happens Uzbekistan, which is a scenario where either some populist slash Islamist movement takes over the country and expands to form a Central Asian empire of sorts, or the government of Uzbekistan itself distances the country from foreign influence and conquers its neighbors to secure its water supply and become self-sufficient. This could be done with their superior numbers. No matter how this would happen, they would gain the ire of both Russia and China, who would have a new player to fight to gain full dominance over Central Asia. A greater Uzbekistan independent of China would also be detrimental to the Belt and Road Initiative, severely weakening Chinese global influence. If Uzbekistan wanted to continue in such a hostile environment, they may try to seek powerful allies from outside the region, as under no circumstance would Uzbekistan be powerful enough to survive for very long on its own before being conquered by either Russia or China. Turkey looks like a good option as the countries share great cultural heritage, and Turkey may be seeking influence in Central Asia due to its energy wealth. The United States is the other obvious option, though it is unclear whether they would want to support a country so far from their core sphere of influence, no matter how strategic such an alliance would be. In conclusion, the Republic of Uzbekistan sees great potential, but also great challenges ahead of it. Its population has the potential to bring the country into great economic and political success, even its original dominance. At the same time, Uzbekistan's population remains very poor, with continued geographic problems and an approaching Chinese influence in the country presenting continued challenges. Only time will tell now how these pressures will play out in the future. Thank you for watching this week's report. Consider supporting my work by subscribing and following my Patreon, the link to which is on my channel banner. Comment what political reports you would like to see next.