 Welcome to Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 28th of September with me, Patrick Munlow. In the US, the highlight of the week will undoubtedly be the first presidential TV debate taking place in Cleveland on Tuesday evening. Biden goes into the debate with around a 7% lead in opinion polls, and will face a stern test from President Trump, typically a strong performer in events like these. Ffx markets in Asia Wednesday morning may be the first litmus test of how the dollar will fare in the run up to the election. One school of thought is that a strong Trump performance is equacy positive and dollar negative. But if Biden were to believe to be the winner of the first debate, the dollar could decline, especially if he becomes president well into 2021 on a benign worldview. But let's look out for price action on Wednesday as that first indicator. In terms of the US macro calendar, we'll receive more insights into the US jobs market via the September ADP and non-farm payroll releases. Look for around 850,000 there in terms of NFP, in terms of job losses. This could add the sense that the recovery is stalling. We'll also hear from a variety of federal reserve speakers, most recently the unified call from the Fed for more fiscal easing has been taken as equity negative and dollar positive. Thus, focus increasingly switches to Congress on whether Nancy Pelosi and Steve Mnuchin can find a path for fresh stimulus. From a technical perspective, Dollar Index is testing that pivotal descending trend line highlighted in last week's review. We've seen some modest profit taking in terms of the long positions, but yet to see a meaningful reverse of this area. However, as this 9460 contains the upside, we could see a pullback to retest these prior highs at the 9380 area to potentially act to support. If they do and buyers step in around this 9380, then I look for another leg higher to complete a three pushes pattern here to test the next level of resistance up to 9570. That would fit with the fractal analysis from last Thursday's live market analysis session. But if buyers fail to show up at the 9380 and we get back down through 9279, then look for a retest of the prior cycle lows at 9179 on route to an ideal objective of this 8950, which is the projected descending trend line support. Pivotal this week is going to be one, how we respond to this 9450 area, and then two, how we fare when we retest the 9375. In the eurozone away from US politics, markets have surprisingly been pricing in more rate cuts from the European Central Bank. Money market futures in our fully priced at 10 basis point rate cut by September 2021. I doubt the ECB would want to go down this route, more likely an extension to the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme or Public Sector Purchase Programme in December. This week may have some bearing on the discussion. Wednesday sees both the flash eurozone September CPI and ECB and its Watchers Conference. Another soft core CPI figure expected at around 0.4% year on year could keep rate cut expectations alive and the ECB event could see more reference to vigilance over the strong euro. Wednesday looks like it will be a busy day in the FX markets. Elsewhere, Tuesday sees eurozone economic confidence figures for September. The overall index is expected to rise a little further, but traders will be watching the growing divergence between the industrial and services sectors, the latter starting to be hit by broader lockdowns. From technical perspective, euro dollar broke through the 117 sport area. We're now testing the 116 handle. Any move back into this 117 is going to be pivotal because if sellers step in again at 117 price support now acting as resistance, then I look for a move down to test the ideal 11480 area. The march spike highs there and we could see a more meaningful correction from that area. However, if sellers don't step in at this 117.50, then I look for a retest of the price cycle highs at 120. Sterling has been relatively immune to the fall in risk sentiment with sterling dollar, largely tracking the euro dollar decline, while euro sterling has been relatively flat. What currently matters more for sterling is the idiosyncratic driver of the UK-EU trade negotiations outlook. Will the easing in rhetoric from both sides see sterling as therefore more stable and the euro despite the falling markets? Nonetheless, given the roughly 50-50 chance of a deal versus no deal, continue to see sterling as an adequate price for the risk presented with limited risk premium built into sterling. Thus, see the potential for more sterling downside. Chancellor Rishi Sunak's new wage subsidy plan has contributed to keeping sterling supported for now. It is of secondary importance to the Brexit outlook. So should the domestic data points this week with the main focus being on September PMI manufacturing, which is going to be released on Thursday, sterling holds the 12690 area. I look for a move back up to retest the prior trend line support now to actors resistance up towards 130. From here, I think we get a retest of range of all back down to 12760. So really looking to play the range at the moment in terms of sterling. As mentioned last week, the Dullien has spent very little time below 105 over the last five years bar in crisis. And the recent jump from 104 is consistent with this pattern. The move could be consistent with a 15 basis point rise in real US yields since late August, largely as the equity sell-off has dragged US inflation expectations lower. But I suspect as well as that Japanese fund managers are waiting in the wings to diversify into US assets when they see the dollar sub 105. That said, Dullien looks to be a key vehicle to hedge US presidential election risk as the debates begin. Dullien could start to take the front seat. The highlight of the Japanese data calendar will be the third quarter tank and results having dropped precipitously in the second quarter. A decent bounce back is expected consistent with the Bank of Japan having recently revised its economic outlook. So from the technical perspective as 10550 and 106 actors resistance, I'm actually looking for a retest of bids back down below 104, ideally to the 78.6% retracement of the advance of the March lows, which comes in at 10347. From there, I think we could see a more meaningful correction develop higher where we could actually be up retesting a sending trend line resistance towards 10750 108. And finally in Australia, really last week, the Aussie dollar was the worst hit currency outside of Europe as we exited a tumultuous week for global markets. The key factor moving for the Aussie, which could once again trigger some underperformance versus its main peers, is the rising market expectations around more RBA stimulus. This week, RBA's Deputy Governor Guy De Bell delivered very diverse remarks and quite clearly pointed out that more stimulus is needed. Question on what tools will be used is open. Whilst most market watchers think more quantitative easing will be the preferred choice over lowering rates, market expectations for a cut have risen quite significantly. The next meeting is scheduled for October the 6th and as we approach it, we may see markets adding to their bets on the cuts and the Aussie facing some idiosyncratic downside risk. The calendar side main note this week is going to be August retail sales on Friday is the key release to watch. The technical perspective we have tested down to the 70 cent level look for any correction higher here back up into the 72 20 to 72 50 area to act as resistance for another leg lower targeting an equality objective down towards 69 to 68 50 only a move back through 73 30 73 50 would negate the downside and have us once again looking at the 75 handle. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for weekends in the 28th of September. As always be sure to join me on Thursday for my live market analysis session where I'll be delivering some real time actual analysis. So that's all for now. Have a great week.