 It is a ray versus the rays rematch for tonight in MLB DFS because last week we saw Robbie ray Dismantle the Tampa Bay rays the 13 strikeouts across seven innings But now they get a matchup a rematch between themselves and Robbie ray and a chance at redemption There's more familiarity here. So the question is Do we go back to the guy who just dropped like a 70 burger against the exact same team last week or do we get worried about the familiarity and go elsewhere in MLB DFS? That is our answer our question for tonight. Let's answer that now and get you set for the slate Welcome on into the solo shot. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to break down Mondays Seven game main slate with lock set for 705 a four two night And thankfully there are no weather issues ahead of us We can play things straight up pick our favorite plays and go from there before we take a look at the pitching preview though Quick reminder, we have our NFL DFS recap podcast every Monday 9 a.m. On the faddle YouTube page is why the solar shot is at 8 a.m The recap podcast at 9 a.m. with myself and brandy Kadula breaking down all the big takeaways from week number two a Lot of quarterback injuries to discuss this week, but also some fun wide receiver breakouts So there is some bad, but also a lot of good to discuss. We'll talk about that at 9 a.m They will be up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that So make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast And while you're there leave us a rating and review as well Hey football fans fandal is giving new users an exclusive offer to play NFL daily fantasy for free all season long All you have to do is sign up for fan duel daily fantasy And you'll receive one free voucher for each remaining week of the NFL season You will receive a voucher upon sign up to the fan duel daily fantasy and vouchers will automatically apply to each weekly entry Head over to fan duel comm and sign up to play daily fantasy football eligibility restrictions apply New users only go to fan duel comm or download the fan duel app for more details Pitching preview for this Monday main slate Robby Ray is the highest salary pitcher on fan duel checking in at $11,000 Shocker Sean Maniah check $600 from Reval Des 93 Rangers Juarez solidifying that increased strikeout rate $9,000 We have Freddie Peralta nester Cortez who Oscar Inoa and John means as the others at $8,000 or higher And Ray is the headliner here and the first thing we need to discuss He did just face the raise last weekend to me That's always bad because it means they are familiar with him and that does downgrade them down great things But usually we're talking about a repeat matchup It's not a situation where the guy took a flamethrower to them with 13 strikeouts across seven innings So I think even we consider the familiarity here even we consider the salary at 11,000 Robbie Ray is silly top pitcher on tonight's slate The 13 strikeouts are backed up by an 18.8% swinging strike rate for Robby Ray and It's not like this was some outlier performance. He's been doing this for a while He has double digit strikeouts in five of his past six starts and the 13 strikeouts Not even the peak in that time. He had 14 against a Chicago White Sox team that hits lefties really well So he's doing this against everyone. It should be no shocker He would do it against a raise team that does strike out quite a bit against lefties We've seen Ray Reincreases slotting usage over his past 10 starts been kind of a roller coaster there this year But in that time in that 10 start sample, which is a large sample. He has a 36 percent strikeout rate He is letting up hard contact is 34 percent of the time We've talked about this a lot it is too soon to say if Ray is going to keep the lack of hard contact up because I Mean like, you know, it does stabilize our 60 80 balls and play and he's surpassed that well over But it's hard to believe that Robbie Ray Would suddenly be a guy suppresses hard contact because if he does that he would be Potentially the best pitcher in baseball not sure that's hyperbolic, but he'd be out there for sure And that's why he is in the AL side young discussion. He has a 1.8. Oh, we are Ray in this time He is allowed no more than freer and runs and any of these starts He gets a raise in the road, which is annoying because we do want our pitches at home in general But you know, it's not a bad park factor by any means So yes, Ray does get downgraded as a result of this being a repeat matchup but When I'm looking for negatives here, that's the only one I've got everything else says Robbie Ray is a stud And a guy we want to build around for DFS So I think it's great go to them in all formats if you want to go there in cash Totally, okay I might be there myself just because I do think that it grades out pretty well for Robbie Ray But overall despite the repeat matchup. He is still number one Now if you do worry about repeat matchups, but you should and you'd you know, you're saying, okay I don't want to any piece of this. Maybe you're a worried that Ray will be too popular I do like Sean Maniah a lot as an alternative. I always like Maniah So if you've listened this year, you know, that's not a surprise But I think there is extra reason to like Maniah tonight seemed like he Yeah, I think he changed it completely because the velocity spiked like three miles per hour on that thing about 12 starts Ago and he has a 28% strikeout rate in that time with a 5% walk rates that leads to a 3.36 skill interactive ER Ray, that's the good for Maniah And that's why I think that you can consider him above Ray The reason I'm not gonna put him there personally not gonna rank him above Ray is that there's still some flaws Specifically too much hard contact from Maniah. So he's probably gonna let up some home runs, you know Some some solo shots and stuff like that. It's way too much hard contact And that's again why Ray is number one Maniah number two, but Maniah does have upside He had nine strikeouts and back-to-back games earlier on this month He also had 13 strikeouts against his very sane team back on July 22nd and has not faced some sense So Ray to me is the top guy and I feel like he's in a tier of his own I'm comfortable having a healthy amount of Maniah tonight After after Robbie Ray, so I would say Ray's one Maniah two feeling pretty good about both of them And they will be my top two pitchers for tonight. The third pitcher and our value guy is a bit risky for sure It's Nester Cortez and Cortez is letting up too many fly balls, which does hurt his floor a lot I still think he's in play and a big part of that is the matchup He's he's facing the Rangers and they've got some lefties in this lineup and they just can't generate Power against lefties partially as a result the fact they are kind of lefty heavy They are dead last on this slate in isolated slugging They are dead last and fly ball right and for Cortez specifically that does help a lot given the issues He does still have the next question here would be upside Cortez has been adding to that recently He's been starting to throw more cutters over his past seven starts his strikeout rate is 27% that time He's also going pretty deep in games. He's gone 95 plus pitches in for this past five starts He's gone 100 plus twice in that time so That's pretty good a lot of this for Cortez a lot of the strikeouts came in his most recent start against the Orioles But he was climbing before that to be 11 in that game against the Orioles Seven against the Orioles two starts before that but not just the Orioles He had seven against the Twins seven against the White Sox So Cortez has shown upside and he's also shown the building blocks there to make it seem like it is legit And sustainable upside Cortez is $8,500. I am okay getting to him at that salary I just think that he's a decent chunk behind Ray and Maniah. I will have exposure to Cortez I do you know want to make that clear, but I think for me. It's probably Ray and then Slight tear down in Maniah and then a full tear down to Cortez as a number three pitcher for tonight But overall really good pitching slate and three guys I do think we can feel good about for tonight as far as the stacks go It might be tough to stack the Astros with Robbie Ray given a salary But you know with Maniah and Cortez we can do it and we're not going to be using Ray in every lineup But I do think that we can get at least get exposure to the Astros even with Robbie Ray Given the value guys lower in the order. So let's talk about the Astros here We'll get some value options later on the Astros are facing Jaime Barilla He joined the rotation mid-season and that happened because of injuries and an effectiveness for the angels rotation It's not a situation of Barilla really forced his way into the lineup He hasn't been super crisp since he joined the rotation He's been leaning more in his sinker as past seven starts He's got a 5.02 ER skill interactive ERA in that time strikeout rate is 16% The bad at bald beta hasn't been bad That's been the one positive here for Barilla But it hasn't been enough to erase the issues elsewhere his ERA is 5.46 He did do well against the Astros last week And he let us just one run over four innings But it seemed like he got a bit lucky because he walked four guys in that game and now they're seeing him again It's our third time facing Barilla in the past five weeks He might be able to jump them down again because he did just do it last week But I still think it's worth a shot here in using the Astros against Barilla and against Barilla We do want to favor lefties, but both sides of the dish are fine here The strikeout rate against lefties for Barilla goes under 10% But he lets up a couple more fly balls some more hard contact righty So I wouldn't care too much about handedness of the batter here I would just say pick the pick the best dudes, you know whether you need to get the value plays like Jose Ciri McCormick Jake Myers like that that's totally fine But also okay to get your Kyle Tucker's get your obon alvarez and feel good about that as well So I would just say pick the best dudes when it comes to stacking the Astros for today We'll talk more about them sure in the Q&A at 4 30 p.m. Tonight One place I'm good looking for some value if you want to get help jamming in Ray Jamming in out to obey the good Astros in there as well. I'm good checking out Milwaukee They're facing Jake Woodford Woodford hasn't been bad since he got stretched out his era is 4.00 across six outings One of those outings was against Milwaukee as well So he's been good and that does include a start against his team But I think there are some funkiness in the underlying numbers with Woodford though His skill interactive era as a longer pitcher is 4.69 It gets there largely because he has a 17% strike outrage is pretty low You can't overcome that with great bad at ball data, but Woodford doesn't have that He's letting up a 48% hard hit rates So a lot of balls in play and they're getting hit hard Woodford is getting some ground balls. I Just don't think that's enough to explain Why the good results are there and it's not up to give me confidence that the good results will stick around I think it's possibly just gotten lucky and lucky is not something that sticks over a larger sample It's possible the results will stay stay the way they've been for Woodford, but I think I'm okay given the peripherals Going against that and using the the Brewers here Stacking them and taking advantage of the value they have in this line up, which is pretty good value I think that I would say probably the best value plays in this slate are on this team They've got Omar Narváez and Luis Arias Dan Vogelbach hasn't gotten good results as he came back But the bad at ball data on Vogelbach since returning is very good So I think eventually the power will return those three guys Arias Narváez and Vogelbach are all $2,600 are lower and I will use any and potentially all of them to give me more flexibility elsewhere I think that's totally okay It does lock up catcher slash first base and utility if you use Narváez and Vogelbach, but that's fine I don't care about that too much. So I think Milwaukee a really good value stack for today The third stack for me is kind of a hybrid where they've got some value But they've also got some legit studs, but also a lot of mid-range guys. That's the Atlanta Braves I give them a slight advantage over the Yankees for two reasons The first one is that they're lower salary and I can better stack them with Ray The second one is that they're gonna have more balls in play in this game We'll talk about that as it pertains to the Yankees in things to watch And I think that does make the Braves the preferred option here They're facing Umberto Mejia who was coming up from AAA and Mejia does pitch in a pretty rough part for pitching in AAA But the numbers there are a concern He has a 5.53 eRA that could be influenced by the park But a 20% strikeout rates and a 44% fly ball rate It's a lot of balls in play a lot of them are in the air and that can lead to issues We've not seen any reason to expect that across two starts in the majors either He has a 21% strikeout rates not many ground balls So it does seem like the AAA numbers are legit and in the majors that he is allowing a 40% hard hit rate That's probably gonna get him in trouble at some point Especially against a powerful team and the Braves are a very powerful team They have a 200 ISO against Ray's, which is the best mark on the slate They have not announced whether the roof will be open tonight yet at Chase Field They typically do that in advance. You can just Google Chase Field roof information. It'll say hey in the series We're gonna have it open XYZ closed XYZ as well They've not announced that yet. I think that because they've not announced There's a chance that this thing is actually open tonight if it is upgrade this Braves offense and they would be But a solid top three for sure But potentially even higher than sitting third on this list if that roof is open The bottom of the order here is pretty fun for the Braves got Danzby Swanson Travis Darno They've got some power Eddie Rosario hit for the cycle last night and Rosario is heading for a ton of power recently Which is very different from what he was doing earlier on the year as you know I think I don't like using guys batting eighth in the National League Lineup because it does mean they're in front of the pitcher I think it's okay to go with Rosario here or maybe Jack Peterson I think that Rosario the preferred option between the two but I'm more lenient on that in this lineup than I am on others just because Those guys batting eighth actually have some some some power some ability to do some stuff on their own So I didn't the bottom the order here pretty attractive if it helps you get to Robbie Ray for tonight Obviously if you can get to the other guys sick get there But there is some value in this brave stack moving to things to watch talking about the Yankees I do like them a lot the one downside is the lack of balls and play They're raising AJ Alexi in his three starts. He has a 24 percent strikeout rate 16% walk rate, which means he's letting up a ball and play about 60% of the time I like that number if I can get it closer to 80. That's great. I can't always get there But like that's kind of the preferred zone. He's a 60% and we saw this in triple A2 where got a lot of strikeouts Walked a lot of guys He does let up a ton of fly balls So the balls and play he does allow can be impactful so it could get out of hand So I do want to get to the Yankees here Like if he walks a couple dudes and lets up the three run on run, you're sitting pretty then But I do want to rank the Yankees below some of the others as a result of the lack of balls and play So the Yankees a really solid number four and would be a top three stack on a healthy number of slates Shane boss is making his MLB debut today against the blue Jays really tough task They're pretty rough on the rays there making him face the Jays, but I don't want to stack here I think boss is too good for that He pitched really low in triple A with a 1.76 era. You had a 36% strikeout rates. He seems really good I'm not gonna use him tonight because the matchup is really tough, but like I'm definitely not second against me So pretty good. So Shane boss a fun guy to watch for tonight. Finally. I am okay with some one-offs on the A's They're facing Tyler Anderson who is a low strikeout guy who lets up a lot of fly balls Which means they could get some home runs here tonight We just don't see Anderson let up enough hard contact me to full stack it like I could see one guy running into a pitch and You know hitting a dinger. It's tougher to see four guys doing so So I love Matt Chapman as a one-off very okay The on-gomes as an almost value play at $2,900 also find a Sean Murphy He wants up getting the start behind the dish instead, but I think the A's better for one-offs than for stacks For tonight, let's close up shop with some dinger calls for this Monday's late The boring one is going back to that Yankees team talking about AJ Alexi because he does let up all those fly balls I think that allows me to go Jean-Carlo Stanton again The lack of balls in play is more so a detriment for the full stack than the one-off So Jean-Carlo Stanton to me against a high fly ball pitcher very in so Jean-Carlo Stanton is my boring one for today The fun one is Omar Navias again talking about that Brewer's team I think that they're set up pretty well against Woodford does let up a lot of hard contact could see that's that Ground ball rates start to increase as he is stretched out more so Narvaez good hitter puts the ball in the air has shown some power this year I think that he's a good pairing with Jean-Carlo Stanton as my two home run calls for today That's all we have here for the solo shop But as always here on Mondays at least for the next two Mondays We will be having our MOB DFS Q&A once again just after our Monday in a football Q&A That's with Ryan Williams and Jessica gridiron making her fan dual Q&A debut That's at 4 to 4 30 talking about the Packers versus the Lions talking single-game DFS Talking props talking betting and more that's right here on the Fandall YouTube Twitch Facebook and Twitter pages I'll be on at 4 30 breaking down your questions on tonight's and they'll be DFS slates We're at 4 30 on Monday Tuesday Thursday Friday, and then we're at 4 on Wednesday for those Q&A's Also, do not forget to check out our week to recap podcast Which should be up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed around 10 30 10 45 today You can also catch it on the faddle YouTube page in live time at 9 a.m Myself and Brandon can do a lot if you've got more questions for me. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonis J I am s a n n e s you can also follow the Fandall podcast network at Fandall podcast Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you tonight with your MLB DFS laps We'll talk to you once again on Tuesday. This has been the solo shot right here on the Fandall podcast network