 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire dot com as we are taking a look once again at Cements college basketball conference tournaments and breaking down ways you bet them with Eli Hershkovich of you better You bet. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire dot com Joined here as always by Ed Fang of the power rank comm you can find Ed on Twitter at the power rank Ed You were in Boston at Sloan this weekend. How did things go out there? It was great as usual I would I would say it was a little bit more tame Yeah, than usual wasn't because of the coronavirus or just because of other stuff. No just Every conference has a different feel. Yeah, depending on who shows up and kind of what's going on I don't know I mean, I guess it felt a little partially because of me because I kind of like left in the middle of Friday because I had to Go update some basketball predictions and write an email newsletter. So like I was just away for a couple hours You know kind of depends on who's there I mean, I think this is my 12th straight Sloan conference and it's the first one there without Bill Connelly like we Have kind of always meet there. Yeah, Bill Connelly of ESPN And then I don't know had a different feel it wasn't necessarily worse really had some really good conversations with people Got to know some people and we actually had a listener of the show Let's just call him Bob He emailed me After the show last week and was like, hey, you know, I I saw that you said that you can just show up at the Sloan conference I was thinking about doing that. I was like, sure. Come on And he showed up Thursday night where all the basketball folks meet up at 4s and then he came by on on Saturday again So it was fun to get to know him a little bit So the power of podcasting, you know, we're each night. He lived close by so it was yeah Or anything like that But I know a lot of people I hung out with did not have a ticket to yeah the actual conference and didn't seem To upset about that and then obviously there's like without all the concerns out there in our world today There was the issue of how you greet people So if I grade if I saw one of my friends, I just gave them a hug I didn't really care because that's who I am, right? But people that you don't that either you don't know or that you just kind of know it was this weird like, all right Let me offer you my handshake. Okay, you're not doing that. Let me close my fist. Yeah, okay All right, we're not even doing that. All right, here's my elbow And so it was just like this progression of meeting people all weekend that was a product of our of our strange times Yeah, and I was in Orlando for a bachelor party, which means I was at Epcot Which is not the place you want to be in the middle of like a Pandemic level type thing because little kids don't cover their mouths to be honest I don't want to be around little kids ever When they're sick, it's especially bad when there's stuff like this going on So that was less than ideal and I got very good at opening bathroom doors because When you do certain activities at Epcot aka drink around the world, you have to use the bathroom a lot I went to the I went to the bathroom around the world, which meant I had opened a lot of doors without using my hands specifically leaving the bathroom because like I don't care going in about to wash my hands anyway, but like I use my foot. I used like I use like towels to try to open doors. I just I don't want to contaminate myself because like This thing is legit. I don't want to like I want to take some some easy steps that I can take to try to prevent the spread if I can Yeah, absolutely. And you should do that every winter, right? Because the flu is a huge killer And I mean, I think maybe it's just good that we're you know, finally Well, maybe we should probably be doing this every every year and I was joking around with my wife About how I'm going to offer people elbows in a few years when this corona thing is no longer An issue just because hey flu season, you know Just to be a contrarian I remember uh in high school. I think I don't remember if it was like bird flu or what but uh, there was something going around and like After football games in high school, we'd have to like shake hands the other team. They eventually did uh sportsmanship elbows I think that was what it was called where instead of you know, high fives you do sportsmanship elbows after touching People repeatedly for three hours before that then you go to the elbow Exactly. I had at least 10 maybe 20 elbows this weekend. Yep. I like it, you know adapting adapting to the times for sure Uh, any big takeaways from you from salon? Yeah, so uh, I met one of my better friends That I've known for probably the longest at this conference and he's like, hey You know that fandal sportsbook is really sharp, man. It's really hard To get down good bets uh against them and I was like, yeah, that's been my Experience as well. So John Sheeran if you're listening Doing a great job. I like it. You have to get John back on make sure you have multiple accounts um, but that is uh Yeah, I mean that that that that that was unsolicited feedback Uh, favorites talk that you went to So I guess my favorite would be the one that I went to I hope I don't go to talk you're there for the networking I'm there for networking. Yeah, so actually I sat down a couple weeks ago and I made a list of like quality of things that you can possibly do from yeah, uh, talking to your son to goofing around on youtube Yeah And like, you know like a face-to-face conversation with someone you admire and respect is like one of the highest things So like why am I going to some panel where no one is going to give much goods anyways? um Oh, I mean and when I can find like in not an infinity But like dozens of people that I really want to have a face-to-face conversation with right and um, But anyways, I did go to the gambling panel. It was it was it was pretty good Yeah, I was moderated pretty well. Uh, kip levin. Yeah, the president of fan duel was there and uh, I've actually been wondering what the handle is on politics Yeah, and he said in 2016 That whatever the european whatever whatever the fan duel presence in Patty power or bet fair it'd be one of the two Uh, the handle was 200 million on the outcome of No on the outcome of the election. Oh, wow That's wild That's no joke. That's insane And I'm not sure it's necessary. Well, I mean, I'm not sure it's necessarily accurate. So right Um, yeah, I mean, there's so many interesting things there. So I thought that was uh Yeah, rufus peabody was tweeting out some of the he had a twitter thread On that talk. So I was reading through that just to get some of like the key takeaways because like I couldn't be there So I was very curious about it and it seemed like right productive conversation across the whole So, uh, I'm glad that kip was able to spread spread the good word there, too Yeah, I was sitting in that talk and I was texting bill. I was like, hey I finally made it to a talk right and the conference starts friday and this was like saturday at noon, right? Yeah And he's like, yeah, I'm not there and I've been streaming talks all weekend. So That's awesome. Well, I'm glad you had a good time. I'm glad that you embraced the elbow the people's elbow going around Oh, that's a nice name. Jim Sonnis. What's that? The people's elbow. I like that. Isn't that a wrestling move? I don't watch wrestling. So I'm not qualified to talk about this Yeah, I don't know. I like that. I like a name. I think it's I think it's a wrestling move But we can adapt that for the coronavirus too to try to help potentially mitigate slash slow down Slightly the spread of all these germs We're gonna spread some good things here coming up pretty soon because we're talking with ila hirskovich of you better You bet breaking down some men's college basketball conference tournament thoughts We're gonna look through the biggest conference turnies coming up this week assuming that they do wind up being played And absolutely go with that And try to see where ila finds some value for this week. You can find ila on you better You bet radio.com You of course is both a host and a producer there So make sure you check out the ila there and follow on twitter at ila hirskovich Now our producer calvin theobald has told me that It's the rocks move Also known as the corporate elbow When the rock turned heel I did not know the rock could turn heel because I feel like that smile Is too infectious for him to be a heel But apparently we have our answers. This is why we need cal on the mic So he can educate me about things that I have not paid attention to in I mean, it's interesting. I just never paid attention to it We got to get them on the pod once they get dfs For wrestling All consider it but until then we're gonna have cal be our intermediate mary there We're gonna break down the bracket next week as well I believe that'll be up on monday, but to make sure you get that podcast right as it is posted Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread search recovering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can find it there And subscribe so you get each one as they're posted and also rate and review the podcast because that does Help us out a ton if you like what you hear now before we bring on ila Gotta go back to last week and take a look at a nascar bet and you know the sweat lasted 65 laps It was short, but it was sweet. We'll break that down and then get to ila Covering the past All right, so last week on covering the spread covering the future I should say I'm gonna spend the podcast I want to talk some nascar with ryan blaney at phoenix And he had been arguably the fastest car through the first two races this year And he was at 12 to 1 at most books He did eventually open because he opened at fandall sports book after we recorded He opened at 11 to 1. I did like him at that number And he was okay during the friday practice sessions qualified fifth So I thought it was a pretty good spot and once you account for qualifying in the practice times Blaney was third in my model entering the race where I see was fifth entering the weekend So I liked him a lot where he opened Then he got caught up in a wreck not of his own doing 65 laps into the race. He finished 37th So that one didn't go so hot But his teammate joey legano won the race and his other teammate bragg keselowski had arguably the fastest car so I feel really good about the process behind the bets and I'm very curious how blaney would have done had he had or had the wreck not happened Uh, but I mean, we'll never know But I still feel good about the way things played out because there is a heavy correlation between teammates The penskey car is super fast. So hey, I'm okay with that one. Honestly, we'll move on to next week and ed I think nascar is unique in It's one of the few sports where your odds of hitting a bet can go up and smoke immediately quite literally And it's kind of nice not to have to worry about it. I'm not gonna lie It's nice not to have the anxiety if the rest like it sucks to lose your bet But it's nice not to have the anxiety for the rest of the race at least. It's a weird sport in that way Yeah, for sure. I mean, I think anxiety is just Part of what comes with this business. So yeah, I think it's exciting as well. Um, so Yeah, absolutely cannot avoid it. Uh, usually don't want to avoid it. Usually anxiety is a good thing there, but uh On to next week for sure. I mean, I feel like that's why my super bowl was very enjoyable this year Yeah, there was kind of lack of anxiety on on my prep bets. It was great You see like mine was anxiety driven But the anxiety turned out okay. So that made it feel sweeter, but I am I am a very I don't know. I don't know what the right I want my I want to have a low range of outcomes in my mood And so things like the super bowl are good every now and then I can't handle them all that often though Which is probably why nascar is a bad thing for me to bet because There's a very wide range, uh, but you know what? Disregard the health. Let's have some fun. Uh, but ryan blaney We'll see how he does this week in atlanta instead We're gonna bring an elie in just one second But if you want to get in on the action check out the fandall sportsbook and place your first bet today If you lose fandall will give you a refund of up to 500 dollars in psych credit This is sportsbook.fandall.com for more details terms and conditions apply Must be 21 plus and physically present in new jersey, pennsylvania, west virginia, or indiana gambling problem. Call 1 800 gambler Let's bring on elie herjkovic now to break down his men's college basketball tournament Conference tournament leanings for this week find elie on twitter at elie herjkovic and again He is a host and producer at you better you bet covering the present Let's get set for this week and men's college basketball with elie herjkovic elie It is a huge week for you. Obviously as you're a big college basketball guy How you doing? Are you all excited? Are you a warmed up now from the the mid-major conference tournaments? Yeah, i'm excited guys. I want a utah state future to win the mountain west at around six to one I got that before the books ticked that one down So i'm excited for the big 10 tournament for the sec tournament have a couple Value plays for both along with the big east. So i'm ready to roll man. Let's get going Absolutely, let's dive right in here and uh before we actually take a look at You know some bets that you like for this week I want to talk to you about your college basketball betting process because last time we had you on We didn't have a lot of time to actually like talk to you about your process. So How do you decide what to bet? Do you have a model that guides you or is it based on Just paying super close attention to news throughout the year What kind of is the main thing for you elie and guiding your college basketball bets? Yeah, i'm not ken barkley I'm not like elokerson and you better you bet and I applaud him for having his model because it's a fantastic way To bet on college basketball bet on college football whatever sport you're looking to get an edge on But my process has a lot to do with metrics and has a lot to do with spots And I know when people are looking to bet on the ncda tournament bet on The conference tournament maybe more so the conference tournament than the ncda tournament You can't really bet on spots situationally in march manis because you're not going to have unless you get a revenge spot with a coach Against his former team or a team against his uh against their former coach etc That's sort of a scenario. You're not going to get a a typical revenge spot like you would in conference play it A typical letdown spot because let's be honest in march manis in a one done in a one and done tournament There are no letdown spots. So throughout the conference tournament. That's the kind of strategy I'm using again using the spot process using metrics. I love ken palm. I live by ken palm He does fantastic work and doesn't get enough credit for people like myself and others who are looking to get an edge I'm betting college basketball that way so a lot of spots a lot of metrics And again just trying to find that situational edge that might not be within because when you think about betting on the nba that a lot of nba lines The the spot is baked into the number whether it's again a rest Not a rest day, but a travel day for a team on on the on the second leg of a back to back Or on the third leg of three games and four nights in college basketball. It doesn't necessarily work like that Excellent so um When you're when you're looking at something you said you you like to look at spots Like is it a kind of thing where you'll see a line know that there's a spot See what ken palm has and if it's you know, roughly equivalent to the market then you know To play that game based on the situational analysis that you've done Yes, and no i'm not i'm out because a lot of books take the ken palm line And use it as their opener not every book But some books do or it's usually a half a point off I've seen i've seen a bigger difference than in past years this year Probably because definitely of the pair. Yeah of the parody across college basketball But I use I don't necessarily use his line within the context of making a bet I look at his metrics. So I have a few different metrics that I look at Within the context of vetting out a game along with spots Uh scoring rate for me is big. So we're an opponent gives up the the majority of their Points to the to the opposition. So whether that's inside the arc from three Or again at the free throw line because if you're thinking about a team that shoots well from three And the opposition gives up a a pretty high rate pretty high three point percentage From again that that's from from that vicinity on the court If they don't give up a if they're the amount of points they're giving up If it's not if it's not a lot of up again points in that department Even though they give up a high three point percentage Then I might be more interested in betting on the again the opponent in that instance So a lot of it has to do with scoring rate and trying to find an area where an opponent Maybe can be exposed more so than the traditional number set And I know that the that numbers are like three point attempts rate tend to be pretty sticky So seeing teams that don't give up three point attempts could you know, I definitely help you out there So I think that's definitely interesting for sure and good shot. Yeah, because that's done a lot of Talking a lot of work about three actually making the three point shots But where they take them I think is is very interesting for sure too So let's talk about these conference tournaments You got conference tournament odds up at fan dual sports book Are you mostly betting individual games here or do you try to Try to bet on who will win the whole tournament? What's your preference here for these conference turnies? Yeah, I try to find value and this is where obviously I try to find value This is where having a a model can help because if you're trying to find the expected value Within an individual conference tournament future Then you're more likely to again be able to dig that sort of stuff out within a model But I can use again a model from Ken Barkley from anybody else And just try to find expected value within a conference tournament future So usually when I'm betting on again in in this area right before the NCAA tournament I'm looking to get higher odds than around 10 to 1 or double-digit odds Because if you're if you're looking in the price range around 6 to 1 You can get that sometimes in an individual game if a team gets off to a slow start and they're uh And they're a bigger dog if you like them to make a run in the dance or you could do a money line roll over So it really is dependent upon your process If you're just betting pregame then you're more likely or you're probably more likely to find value In conference tournament futures Then if you're looking to lie bet and try to find value that way as well But one of the conference tournament futures if we want to get started on a on an individual conference Is minnesota and this is kind of where my long shot process comes from because again I'm looking to get better value than around 10 to 1 or so and obviously minnesota is high up there in in price or not not steep I guess depending on which way you're looking at it at around 80 to 1 And if you think about the big 10 tournament and the way it's shaped at the bottom part of the bracket I think that's michigan states to win But minnesota as well again there again 80 to 1 65 to 1 I believe on fando for looking at exact prices So you might say how is a 14 and 16 team going to at least get to the semifinal or even the conference tournament title game Where you have a shot to hedge they have your northwestern wildcats in the first round So so let's get that out of the way first, okay uh, minnesota absolutely smacked Northwestern in that first in that latin people did most people did exactly they shot the lights out for three in that game And uh, that kind of comes from again three-point regression for a team that is playing better basketball than the record says Better than the traditional's numbers say because the traditional's numbers say you have gave calcium could stretch the floor Marcus car can even do so when he's on from three and daniel daniel oturu can do the same Kind of a stretch five or even a stretch four when minnesota decides to go big So if northwestern can get by uh, if minnesota can get by northwestern And you think about the path the rest of the way in iowa then in illinois Who an ill an only team that while they they covered against minnesota in that in their only meeting this season in champagne That game was a one-point game before the rest decided to give Uh, geordie geordie beshawna's vealy a couple free throws instead of uh, instead of calling it a travel or whatever Whatever the call was at that at that point the game in the final two minutes So i think the path to getting to the uh, semi final against wisconsin is is in minnesota's favor And the value is definitely there at around 65 to one where people are just looking at the traditional record traditional stats may not see that Yeah, that's fascinating. Uh, so just to show kind of the the strength of of minnesota um So there uh 12 out of 14 big 10 teams in my in my numbers, uh, but there's still 48th in the country So there's definitely strength in that team and I think like especially with a league that is so good across the board minus two teams Sorry jim I think it's good to kind of look at that conference to play some of these uh longer odds Um, can we let's let's switch to another uh conference. Uh, kansas and baler are the standouts in the big 12 Uh, with no one else shorter than plus 700. Are you uh any of those longer bets in that conference stand out to you? Yeah, if you think about a texas tech I bought a future on them and I listen i'm willing to an NCAA tournament future I should say going back to uh a few weeks ago a month ago And i'm one of those people that you know, some people just like to again say the bets that they've gotten right and not really Uh, analyze the mistakes they've made. I made a mistake on texas tech. Uh going back to last month Uh thinking again that this offense which was could shoot the ball from three and was defending that the three the opponents three point Line at a really high clip or really low clip again Depending how you look at it that percentage that they could make a run and with a great defensive coach and chris bier Even that price though, isn't that intriguing to be an eight to one? Especially with the way or seven to one depending on the depending on the book Um, depending on how you're you're gauging whether a team is going to cold into the conference tournament or hot I just don't like the way texas tech is playing right now. You have west virginia. You have baler. You have kansas I think the the the elite teams in this conference rise to the top Uh, I think we're going to get a baler kansas conference tournament final So i'm looking to bet this conference tournament kind of game by game Like you guys were mentioning earlier in oklahoma state iowa state if we're looking at from an individual matchup perspective Uh, nixon might not even play for iowa state in that first game bolton is probably going to be out So uh extremely depleted iowa state team without tyries haliburton against an oklahoma state team That's really playing its best ball here down the stretch They just smacked texas on the road and speaking of texas That's a team that a lot of people have been high on they get texas tech in the opener I just even even if again whoever comes out of that game I know before the uh before the game over the weekend where oklahoma state be texas by 20 plus points A lot of people are saying texas has a shot to make a run in the big 12 tournament I think this is kansas's to win And maybe baler has a shot at jared butler and macy otig seems to find their healthier down the stretch because they've been dealing with some injuries as well even vitale and uh, and Again, if you're thinking about some of the other bigs that have been out here down the stretch So it's kansas and there's no value for me in that price I think it's really important to recognize the difference between the big 10 and the big 12 there where The big 10 seems like it's pretty wide open the big 12 It really is those two teams and it's here their own So it's good that you're kind of accounting for that in your betting process there as well Let's talk about the acc Not quite the big 10, uh, but there is a group of three at the top here got florida state at two to one Duke is plus 250 and then louisville's three to one win the acc Any of these numbers intrigue you on the acc side any long shots you're looking at here? Yeah, it's it's kind of the same uh as the big 12 I I maybe see a little bit of value in louisville because again the bottom part of the bracket Virginia by the way if you think about the way they've been playing down the stretch Their last seven games. They've won a by a combined 26 points That is the the lowest margin scoring margin over a seven game winning streak in college basketball history So I know this is the way that tony vena teams want to play they want to slow you down They want to play the pack line and win with defense So virginia in a sense is is built to win these close games And they are we saw it last year in the instable a tournament with the auburn game And the texas tech game coming back and even the orgin game in the sweet 16 The Purdue game as well and over time I just don't like the makeup of this team again relying on those sort of scoring margins assuming It's within a possession or two in the conference tournament So I think louisville gets to the conference tournament title game I like their path to get there. Maybe there are some upsets In the bottom part of the bracket with the Notre Dame, which is kind of intriguing They give virginia some issues in the over the past couple years But louisville has a shot the best chance to me That in the part of that lower bracket to get to the conference tournament title game Duke in florida state Locky locherson ken barkley brought up that Duke has a little bit of value He makes duke to win the acc tournament around plus 140 think they're priced around plus 250 like you mentioned So I just don't I I can't make the case for duke with the kind of inconsistencies that they've had down the stretch trey jones winning acc player of the year. I like his game He's improved his scoring efficiency and his offensive efficiency this season I I can't rely on a team though that has again shown so many flaws here down the stretch And you think about a coach k team that has shown similar tendencies here Probably since the bagley and carter year where they had to switch to his own duke's still bottom 10 in college basketball See when I talk about scoring rate, this is a prime example They've given up a bottom 10 Opponents two points scoring rate across division one So this team essentially gives up a lot of points inside the arc consistently And this is not a kind of team that that coach k is going to switch to his own with Which that season was again to protect the paint and to protect Inside the arc and they showed similar flaws last year and that's a florida state team If you get matched up in the semifinal against the seminals They are extremely physical and will score inside Especially in transition if they control the glass. So i'm not seeing the value in duke And florida state again, that's the kind of team that I expect to come out of this conference tournament They won the acc and they have so much depth under light on hamilton one of the better guards one of the more underrated guards in college basketball In trend forest. I don't see any value in this conference tournament either So Eli, uh, any other numbers that you like you you kind of mentioned maybe the sec tournament Yeah before we got on the air Yeah sec tournament and we'll get to the big east after after the sec I guess I like mississippi stape at around 10 to 14 to one I've seen in other books too and it's important to shop around of course So if you think about the bottom part of that bracket I know a lot of people have made the case for arkansas and they're around 65 to one still on fando, which is Uh, a pretty incredible price considering their priced around 25 30 to one in other books mason jones is back So or not mason jones is back as a joe is back So you combine jones and and i say a joe Two of the better three point shooters in that conference if they play a good perimeter of defense arkansas, I can make a run All burden is extremely fraudulent south carolina I don't know what to make of them even though they they beat mississippi state last week on their home floor But again, i'm looking at the bulldogs here who have a double buy in this conference tournament You can get them at double digit odds They're a big wild card just as a team overall I mentioned that south carolina loss they turn the ball over a little bit too much at times for my liking But you have one of the more dominant, uh, bigs in that conference in reggie parry You have a good guard too in the back court in nick weatherspoon and a couple of the good scorers in carter too In that area So I I think mississippi state if again, ben holland who has tournament experience going back to his UCLA days if they can get past kentucky, which I think they actually match at the best Against kentucky among any of these teams because of the size Up front and I think in that this kind of a rematch with reggie parry against Mod gummery or nick richards. They slowed him down to that first matchup I don't think it happens twice in a season Again, his physicality down low is really tough to match up against Especially if you get him established early on in the game So I think mississippi state presents some value again looking at double digit odds Lower on the double digit scale, but still value there in the sec tournament All right, what about the big east you mentioned you liked one out there. What stands out to you for that one? Yeah, this is this I was looking at providence going back to uh to yesterday even before they saw the news of marcus ziggurowski who's Doubtful to play in the tournament with uh with the knee injury and cretin has a ton of three-point shooting Beyond ziggurowski with tishon alexander Among others and one of the better three-point shooting teams and they also have one of the better three-point scoring rates So they rely on uh threes to obviously score a lot in these games within the context of that stat If you get providence or butler though in that again, and that's semi-final Because if you're looking at the bottom part of the bracket you have like the a bill and nova seton hall semi-final I like seton hall. I have I have an NCAA tournament future on hauled around 41 I got really good value back in january I think seton hall though might be best suited Not that they are going to try to lose But if they do lose in in the semi-final even before that let's say zavier makes a run of the big east tournament Then you're probably looking at seton hall being better off of the NCAA tournament because of the knee tendonitis For quincy mcknight and miles powell. So not that i'm looking to gauge My my big east tournament futures on the health of these guys and the the uh, again the Trying to find uh, the best suited scenario for seton hall come the big dance But I honestly think seton hall might look to play a little bit of just a little bit of load management With those guys because what's more important the NCAA tournament or the big east tournament Even though obviously those guys want to win the conference tournament But providence or butler could pose a lot of problems going back to that cretin the top part of the region Or the top half of the conference tournament and to me providence is again the physicality that they bring Kind of similar to what I was talking about with mr. To be state But this is one of the best teams in the big east offensively among adjusted defensive efficiencies On kempan and they are it's because of their physicality again down low with nate watson and even alpha diallo On the perimeter two with the wand pipkins who's more of an offensive player But he's really improved his defensive tendencies watching him in big east play a j reeves and and duke as well I I like this defense all around and again, I mentioned the front court with watson and khalif young So if you match up again with cretin who they walloped at home They blew the lead late in that game going back to their Matchup early around in conference play in oma This team matches up the best Among any team in the big east to me with cretin on a neutral floor because of that physicality Because they guard their perimeter really well and that really showed in that second matchup in big east play So i'm looking at providence to beat cretin and at least get to the conference title game That's where you're looking to hedge maybe a little bit or if I like to match up even more I won't hedge and I think they have the best shot here even at around six to a Seven to one to win the conference tournament. All right, so go mississippi state plus 9 50 providence plus 600 That is elai herjkiewicz Find him on you better you bet on radio.com also make sure you find elai on twitter at elai herjkiewicz elai We appreciate the time a lot of info in there. I appreciate that for sure Good luck to you with all your bets this week and good luck to you in the ncda tournament as well Thanks, man. I appreciate the time guys. That's what thanks for coming on Covering the future All right, one final thank you to elai herjkiewicz for swinging by and breaking down those men's college basketball tournaments Breakdowns talking about his favorite bets of this week follow elai on twitter at elai herjkiewicz And uh, make sure you check out you better you bet because we've borrowed a lot of their talents over the past couple of months And uh, they've had us on as well. So really appreciate them over at that show Ed and I always preach searching for the best value in betting on games Look no further than the odds comparison our engineers have developed over at numberfire.com called odds fire odds fire is the premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated us market Compare odds quickly identify the best value and even examine first party fan dual data on one place Never settle always get the best odds Check out the experience for free now a number fire or at odds fire.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler and odds fire Especially good, uh ed was talking about how people think fan dual sports book is sharp Find a better line and do it the odds fire there And let's move now to covering the future and you want to talk a little college basketball as well What do you have cooking over there? Wait, first of all, is cap gonna fire me for No, no, no, no cap is adam capplin is also involved with odds fire So it's really a win-win. We're good and you also advocated signing up for a lot of that's just good practice So hey, you know I think you're good. I'll talk to cap. We're all set. No concerns here Yeah, I want to talk about college basketball and actually I want to talk about a college basketball game Uh, it's been difficult to talk about games just with the quick nature of the cycle and nightly and whatever the lines are up Uh, but I think there's an interesting chance to fade a team uh later this week in the big 10 tournament But before we actually get to that game That team is wisconsin, but before we get to that game, uh, michigan's gonna play ruckers in uh in the round before that Wisconsin's the one seed in the tournament And first let me talk a little bit about michigan basketball because I live here in Ann Arbor I follow this team pretty closely and I think There's a lot from michigan fans to be hopeful for I think if you look at the the entirety of the season We kind of expected michigan to be a tournament team this year Uh bringing back your two best defensive players from last year They've been better than just the tournament team. Uh, they're kind of slated as a sixth seed Obviously the the season's been up and down wildly successful in the beginning of the season hit a bad patch at the start of big 10 play Hit a good patch Uh sometime in february and now have lost three or four Uh games to end the season. That's just how good the big 10 is this year. Uh, you've seen the best teams You know have a rough go at it. I mean they're 12 of 14 teams are in the top 50 When I look at my college basketball rankings and those are those are my number numbers. So it's just tough But anyways, I think michigan, uh, I think things are looking very bright going forward for this team And it goes beyond just what uh, how it's doing on the recruiting show So anyways, let's get on to this game. You know if michigan beats, uh Rockers to go play wisconsin and that game would be friday You know, I would actually have an eight or nine seeded michigan as the favorite over wisconsin Uh, my numbers have about two points better than wisconsin right now And I know that seems really weird because wisconsin just rattled off eight games in a row To be co-champions of the regular season in the big 10, which is kind of unquestionably the best conference in college basketball this year But you got to dig a little bit deeper into that Uh, wisconsin has just gotten blazing hot from three over that eight game stretch they're hitting 41 of their three point shots and Ken Palmer has done a lot of work showing Just how strong the regression to the mean is in three point shooting So you do these studies by looking at, you know, how well the three point shooting percentage of a team the first half of the conference season compare compares to the Three point shooting percentage for the rest of the season and you see big time regression to the mean And usually that means something's not a skill Like that's kind of the argument, but clearly shooting is a skill, right? But so, I mean, it's certainly not saying that that the shooting is not a skill But I think the proper statement is randomness plays a huge role in a team's three point percentage And what we can say is like we expect this to regress for uh, the wisconsin badgers Um, you know, they they've obviously it's also interesting because they're slated to be a higher seed than michigan In the tournament they're on the five line in a lot of places right now I don't think they're as good a team as michigan. Um, I think this is going to regress I think the markets will be close to a pick If not favor wisconsin by one. I think there is a little bit You know, there's obviously some factoring of recent games a little bit more and they've clearly been playing well But when you can pinpoint a lot of that strictly on getting hot from three And michigan is usually very good at not allowing other teams to take the three Clearly that didn't happen was when wisconsin came to ann arbor the last time But over the course of the season, they've been fantastic. So we don't have a line for this yet My numbers like michigan by about two a little bit less 1.8 Um, also just in case ruckers wins because obviously that might not be the matchup Uh, I would only make ruckers about a half point dog against wisconsin so I'm given i'm giving kind of a take to fade wisconsin on the game. We don't even have a line on yet. That's I like it. Let's see last week. I said to bet an ascar driver and there were nods on fangirls sports We're hitting the idea there. So I like this. This is good But I also think that it it's good to hear the process behind it because You can take the thought process of fade teams that have gotten really hot recently behind a three-point arc And apply that more broadly than to just one game. So even if ruckers does win the overall thought process of Identifying teams in the same archetype as wisconsin's at right now And betting against them is profitable. So even if like this game doesn't happen I think the overall point is still super valuable as like finding things that are more likely to regress than others Jim you're making me sad about talking in this game not happening, right? Right, you know, I really did cancel their basketball term this week. So Obviously, we're all keeping a big time eye on what's going on with these things. I know I certainly am But I I know what you meant like a game a match-up not actually happening the game will hopefully happen I think I think people are going out there right now. So Um, uh, how about a north-western at 200 to one for the big 10? Are we uh, we going in on this one or no? The pen state They would need more wins in the big 10 tournament than they had in big 10 regular season conference play They're due for positive regression ed. That's how regression works, right? That's how it works Okay, anyone get hot, right? I mean, they've probably shot like 20 from three. They've got to get better, right? This is good. See this is this is I can play the idiot when it comes to north-western basketball because it makes me less sad So I'm okay taking that role, but I also think like there's a lot of value in betting on chaos in the big 10 tournament just because things seem to be pretty even and there are a lot of good teams there So a couple different threads from the wisconsin discussion point I think are more broadly applicable and I think that's always a good thing. So Uh betting against wisconsin going forward here I think is a good idea based on the way ed mentioned it now for me the players championship is this weekend for golf And there's a whole lot of money on the line for the golfers and it's often considered the fifth major So let's put some money on the line for ourselves as well Now tpc sawgrass is the host this weekend and it's not the longest course and that can influence Who is in contention web simpson one in 2018? He's definitely not the longest guy on the tour jim furick finished second last year He's I think a year away from uh the senior level uh the pga tour. He's definitely not bombing it So that can increase the pool of guys who are able to content But the guy I want to focus on is someone who does have a decent amount of distance But also has the control to not completely spray it and that guy's patrick cantley He is 27 to 1 f handle sportsbook and cantley Does really well in a couple of key stats specifically He ranks 15th the distance in the past 50 rounds according to fantasy national So he's long and can make up some ground on the on the longer holes He's 82nd in accuracy in that time. That's not great But it is better than some of the guys at the top like jesson thomas dustin johnson brooks kepka adam scott So even though cantley is not accurate per se He does enough elsewhere to make up for it and we can kind of account for that By looking at a thing like good drive rate cantley is around 40th there over the past 50 rounds That kind of shows you he's able to make up for it Even if he's not on the fairway He's still okay And a big part of that is that cantley is really good with his second and third shots He ranks fifth in the field and approached the past 50 rounds He's also 15th around the green So makes up for it if he's not entirely accurate. He can do well elsewhere And although bermuda, which is the putting surface for this week is not cantley's best surface He is a slightly above average putter there. And I think that what that does it makes him a well rounded golfer And that's encouraging and it's helped him perform really well recently If we look at him since last year's players championship cantley has seven top tens in 19 events And that includes a win at the memorial two runner-up finishes and two third place finishes If we look at him in three tour events since january 1st Cantley has actually gained at least five and a half strokes on approach twice in that time That's really encouraging now cantley has not played in almost a month now Because he did a surgery, but that was on his nose. It's not something related to his swing I don't think that's going to affect him all that much And i'm willing to go at him here at 27 to 1 I think it's very reasonable to project cantley to clean up in the ball striking stats So if he can just convert on that short game And not totally spray it which it seems like you know, he can based on His profile. He should be in convention and at 27 to 1 I will take that now if you are wary of betting against rory mackleway Which is kind of what this is doing. I don't blame you You could take him at plus 550 for a top five finish or at plus 290 for a top 10 He is plus 130 to get a top 20 finish as well So a couple of different ways you could play this but overall I want to buy into patrick cantley this weekend at the players got some distance So it's not a prerequisite to win here, but it certainly does not hurt He is not super erratic off the tee And he's really good in the other stats with his approach and his around the green play So a well rounded golfer 27 to 1 to win I like that. I like that combination quite a bit for patrick cantley now ed this weekend We have selection sunday And obviously you're working a lot. Are you able to put on any golf while you are working on your tournament stuff? No, you got to watch the conference turnies Yeah, I mean, I definitely try to watch some games. Um, and uh, I don't know. I mean, I think one selection sunday comes out It's like zip zip zip Gotta get some stuff up on the side got to get some predictions up Uh Gotta get uh, I've been doing uh bracket wisdom series on on my podcast feed And so there's an episode of analyzing that I would like to get done sunday. So Um, yeah, not not a lot of time for golf this weekend. Not a lot of time for anything, honestly No kidding. I have I was supposed to have a flight on sunday Uh coming back from la that has been cancelled because the event was cancelled and I was I was Preemptively like anxious about trying to get you the rundown for monday in time because like I want to give you some leeway To like study up and all that stuff I don't have to worry about that anymore So like sure it'd be cool to go to la in march when I live in syracuse new york a little bit better a little bit better in la But the fact that it allows me to just like Focus on getting the stuff out earlier makes me feel like it's much better. So I uh, I 100 percent understand where you're coming from there and uh It's it's a lot. It's it's definitely a quick turnaround and there is a lot of work that'll be jammed in This weekend through monday Yeah, but we will talk to all of you then to get you set for march madness looking forward to that For sure and it should be a lot of fun once again Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread to get the podcast right when we post it On monday, and we'll also I believe Potentially be streaming that one live on youtube that has not been confirmed yet depends on a couple of uh Machinations that need to happen. So I'll tweet it out if it's going to be live on the fandal youtube page I will let you know my twitter account at jim sonnis. So make sure you are tuned in there Ed you said that you are going to be doing the uh podcast series once again over at the football analytics show Has that started already? It has started on monday. It is tuesday. It started yesterday Uh, pretty pleased with how things have been going. Uh, the first episode looks at this idea of quote unquote parody in in college basketball this year In perspective from how you should be picking your champion And then uh talked a little bit about the one thing you got to get right in order to win your pool Whether you have the best analytics or not and uh, yeah, we'll be going every uh every weekday until the start of the tournament and the thing that I like about these Is I don't know if this is a weird thing to admit, but I I listen to podcasts in the shower I don't know if that's like super strange. It might be super strange, but whatever we're talking about anyway I listen to podcasts in the shower. I can listen to those episodes in like A shower in time getting ready And so I like how quick they are and how easily digestible they are and that's actually like It's really nice for me to have something that's that's so quick. I love that Awesome. Well, I appreciate your listening. Uh, definitely if you want more about how to get ready for your When your pool and previews of teams that could win Uh, yeah, definitely check it out. It's the bracket wisdom series on the football analytics show All right, so just search for the football analytics show wherever you get your podcast and find that And find all of ed's work over at the power rank dot com and get his March madness book as well the power rank dot net find add on twitter at the power rank. I am as mentioned at jim sanis j i m S a n n e s I will tweet out whether it'll be on youtube for those of you who like to watch things live on youtube I think you would be uh sometime monday, but i'll tweet out definitive plans there Otherwise it will be on the covering the spread podcast feed Sometime monday, so make sure you are subscribed and rate and review the podcast if you like what you hear big Thank you to elie hirskovic for swinging by and breaking down some men's college basketball conference tournament bets Follow elie on twitter at elie hirskovic and make sure you check out you better you bet as well big Thank you to calvin theobald our video producer for keeping us on the air here today as always Thank you cal and thank you to everyone For tuning in good luck with your bets on these men's college basketball conference tournament potentially for the players as well And we'll talk to you once again next week to get you set for march madness This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duo podcast network