 Okay welcome traders to this week's live trade analysis session with me Patrick Munnally. If you can hear me and you can see the tick me a welcome screen if you just type a Y in the chat box so I know we are good to go. Type a Y in the chat box if you can hear me and you can see the welcome screen so that I know we can start here. Testing audio one two three. Testing audio one two three if you can hear me and you can see the welcome screen you can just type a great stuff thanks. Okay so before we jump into today's presentation as always we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer specifically for today what's important is that the views expressed by me are solely mine they're not indicative of or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. So for those of you here for the first time just a brief introduction to who I am. After I graduated from Kings College London I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup which was focused on C-suite executive search specifically for technology businesses. So essentially I had a front row seat to the dot-com bubble witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets sometimes quite literally overnight. So I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or probably more appropriately day gambling after some early beginner's luck I racked up some pretty solid gains. However as is often the case my beginner's luck ran out and as the market phase changed I began to average down into losing positions. Basically giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure financial hit. So that was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months or two years was a time during which I upped not just my technical game in terms of researching, developing extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suit my personality. All of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly during the period of mentorship I significantly developed my mental game and probably most importantly of all I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process orientated. So what does that mean? Well it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated and you have a professional trading mindset understanding the true nature of trading being simply a numbers game in which you're playing the probabilities you lose the emotional investment in that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcomes of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next hundred trades because I know if I focus on excellence and execution my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008 since 2013. I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service delivering again annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010 I've also mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to relieve consistent returns in the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring I'm a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to Tickmail. I provide a daily market outlook with a breakdown of both the fundamental and technical drivers for the session ahead. You can access that through the Tickmail blog and you can enter your email address to get updates on that to get automatic updates for those posts. In addition to that I also run I'm sorry in addition I also provide three to five setups that I'm tracking in the market through the Tickmail trading view account. You can subscribe to that through a trading view and get automatic updates for the for the trade alerts that that I'm tracking in the market and most recently I've been responsible for running the Tickmail e-mini futures trading group strategy group through this Facebook group where I provide the daily trade plan directly into the into the feed here. It's a short video last about three to five minutes what I do is I basically give the exact setups that I'm looking for in the the e-mini S&P for the cash trading session in New York. So it's a short video but it basically gives you the levels that I'm looking to enter and exit the market for any given day and for those who want to take things to the next level I now also run a telegram channel whereby I livestream the opening hour of the cash trading session in New York and it's essentially a screen share where I'm giving commentary exactly what I'm seeing in the markets exactly where I see the opportunities and then I'm giving the specific trades that I'm taking and how I'm managing them and how I'm exiting them. Just last month we had 123 points of profit in there and that equates to about seven and a half percent return for me but since we set this group up in April I've delivered over 1400 points of profit and on a very moderate risk profile that would equate roughly to about 140 percent return on capital. So what I'll do now is I'll just post a link into the chat here it's the the Facebook group is free to join you just have to request membership and I'll add you to that group to get the daily setup there. The telegram channel if you if you want if you're interested in accessing that you can you can reach out to me through LinkedIn I'll post my profile in the chat as well send me a direct message and I'll explain more about the telegram channel and for those who are interested in tracking the trade setups that I post I'll just post that link the trading link in there for for that channel for you to follow along. So that gives you a brief overview of my background and where I'm coming from so let's now jump into the charts and we are going to start with the S&P 500 I'm just going to quickly have a sip of water first and also I just also would like to mention if you have any questions or there's a chart you want me to take a look at but I don't cover in my my deck here then just just put it into the chat or the Q&A and I won't answer straight away but I'll come back to that at the end and I'll cover off any questions you guys might have. So S&P 500 this is the e-mini futures contract and we have seen a decent sell-off here whilst the S&P trades below the 45-85 area now I'm looking for a test of the trend line support here we also have the median line of a pitch fork overlaid from the prior cycle high using the corrective low and then the new cycle high and we've got monthly projected range support coming in at 44.60 so I'm going to be watching the price action here watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side and initially looking for a retest of the monthly pivot from below so that's up to 46.21 and then we'll see how the price action develops whether or not we are going to get another leg to the downside in a more protracted corrective move and then look for another bounce or we are going to we're going to put in a base here and ultimately trade higher into the the back end of the year retest cycle highs and then on to the the top side of the ascending trend channel here at 48.56 so there are going to be opportunities on the long side hit from the from the trend line or if we break the trend line on the closing basis then there will be short opportunities looking for a move down back into this 42.50 area. NASDAQ also seeing some weakness potential here that the NASDAQ has completed a three-way corrected move let me show you what I'm talking about so we have the swing high this swing low and we have just well can we just shy so we would have a three-way correction here the quality objective testing 15.694 those prior highs so I've been watching for bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side and again looking for a retest of the monthly pivot from below as the initial target Jen you have do you have a question saying you've raised your hand if you want if you can just type it into the into the chat box or into the Q&A box and I'll come to it at the end so this is the next level I'm watching in terms of the NASDAQ we had a great trade in the NASDAQ after the last correction we were watching for a bullish reversal pattern from the trend line here we've got this pin bar and we played that all the way up into the top side of the channel so let's see how price responds here at that 15,694 level now again we get more information on this test because if price fails to find support there then what we're going to be thinking is looking on the short side so looking for a move that breaks this internal trend channel first pull back into it access resistance and then we get the extension down into the major trend line and if we fail there then we'll be thinking about a move back into the 14,400 level but for now our focus is on this test here of the 15,694 we'll see if buyers step back in Dow Jones just let this load so similar story here in the Dow what I'm looking for is a move to test trend line support here and these prior lows that brings us in at 34,200 level so I'm watching there for bullish reversal patterns thinking initially of a corrective move to retest the monthly pivot from below the key area here on this chart for me is this this resistance area at 15,460 if we fail there then that's going to suggest we're in for a bigger corrective move and we will be thinking about an extension down into monthly range support 32,900 as the next logical objective but if we can get through there on a housing basis then that's going to suggest that this correction is over and we're going to retest and take out prior cycle highs on route to a move up towards 37,000 would be the minimum upside objective there next one in terms of these equity indexes is the Russell 2000 I'm watching here this trend line support so if we can hold get a bullish reversal then we'll look initially for a test of the monthly pivot from below 2273 and then on to this prior resistance area up towards 2363 if we fail there then we know that we're likely to have an equality objective to the downside taking us into the monthly range support 1966 so this is going to be a key area because if we get through there on a closing basis then we look to recapture prior cycle highs and take that out and trade up into projected ascending trend line resistance and that comes in at 2567 equally if we get a close below this support area 2086 first pull back to retest this trend line from below will be an excellent opportunity to get in on the short side and and trade down into monthly range support 1968 so there's you can see what I'm trying to explain I guess what I'm trying to get across here is that there are multiple opportunities developing now in these equity indexes and it's just about paying attention to these key areas and watching for the price response to get in on what I think are going to be some excellent trading opportunities the DAX in Germany so has tested some pivotal support here I'm looking for a three wave correction and again a similar setup to these other equity indexes let me just draw in the next key area so we will be paying close attention to how price responds on any retest of this where are we 15948 up to 15998 because if we fail there then in all likelihood we're going to move down to test the ascending trend line support and the monthly range support back down at 1414157 it's going to be the key area to to pay attention to but equally if we can get through here on a closing basis then we know again that in all likelihood this correction is complete we take out the price and we can think about and move up into ascending trend line resistance towards 17000 an instrument that not many people pay attention to but certainly we want to be cognizant of here is the VIX index and this is a volatility index and obviously as we've seen a pullback in the equities we've seen a spike in the VIX we're now trading into this trend channel resistance so we're going to get some equally useful information here from the VIX because if the VIX rolls over from this from current levels and starts to track lower again then that's going to give us tradable information with respect to these equity indexes that in all likelihood the current correction is complete but if we take out this resistance area coming in around the 33 level then we could be in for a more protracted correction in the equity indexes so it's always useful to keep an eye on the VIX because if we see a change in the trend here to the upside then that gives us immediate information with respect to the equity indexes and where we're likely heading. 10 year notes so the 10 year notes in the US move inversely to bond yields so as the 10 year is going up in price bond yields are coming down and so what we are tracking here is if we go to the 10 year yield so what I'm anticipating for the yields now is that we're in this potential ascending triangle pattern and so I'm anticipating for us to continue rotating within this range of 1.68 percent down to a low of probably 1.4 into the back end of this year and then what I'm ultimately looking for at some point is that we see an explosive move to the upside and we head above that 2 percent yield level and that's so that's this is going to be a key pattern to keep an eye on this this descending triangle because when we see that disruption in terms of yields in the US rising that's going to have a significant impact on equity markets as well. Dollar index we are trading still pretty nicely within this pitchfork and so I'm looking for any weakness in the dollar index now to find support at the prior highs at the 94.50 area to set up the next leg to the upside looking at thinking about a test up towards the 98 level 61.8 percent retracement of this prior decline at this stage I would only get bearish on the dollar if we take out this trading channel support and that's back towards the 93.50 area at this stage. Gold has made a test here of this trend line I posted this gold chart on an intraday basis for our time frame yesterday through the trading view account so I'm looking for bullish reversal patterns here in gold and if we can get a bullish reversal potentially putting in a pin bar here today so if we can get a bullish reversal here in gold then I'm looking for an extension up through the prior highs at the 1882 on route to an ideal 1923 in gold gold also has seasonal support at the moment November December and January tend to be very good months for gold so we'll see how that sets up but certainly this is looking interesting now if we can hold this trend line get this bullish reversal in then we're going to be looking for long positions and we've got some nice upside targets to play for crude oil also posted this one today I think we are in the first leg here of a five wave sequence in terms of crude so I'm looking to fade any rallies above the 71 level I'm looking for a five equals one objective down to 63 and then we've got structural support back towards 62 from there I'd anticipate a relief rally three wave move and similar to these equity indexes to a certain degree we're going to retest of this trend line from beneath bearish reversal patterns here will set up an equality objective in crude back down towards $50 a barrel but equally if we can get back through $77 then it could suggest that we're about to start the next leg to the upside that to my mind at this stage is the less probable scenario at this point what I'm thinking is because of the impulsive nature of this decline so far that the next three wave correction has certainly back into this trend line from beneath will be an opportunity to look for bearish reversal patterns and get in on the short side in terms of crude oil so that's a scenario I'm tracking there bitcoin this one's interesting as well for a for a seasonal play December has tend to be a pretty good month the prior trades I've been looking at bitcoin with these trend line breaks that after the correction and we've got a similar situation setting up here so any move in bitcoin for me back through the 60,220 area is going to be an opportunity on the long side first target on the upside is 75,000 and then we look for a test of the major ascending trend channel resistance coming at 83,700 at this point so watch for that close through the trend line and then you've got a decent long shot there ether we have taken out while I'm looking for another close through this trend line to confirm a bullish breakout here I want to see the psych indicator kick up into the the green zone suggesting further momentum strength and then what I'm looking for then will be a test of the 5,050 and then as this area acts as support we then look for a move up into 5,775 in terms of ether so this one seems to be leading the pack at the moment so we'll see if we can get this next breach through these ties and then again just playing momentum you want to what I want to see is this psych indicator flip green and then that sets up this next leg to the upside in terms of in terms of ether dollar yen obviously seeing a bit of weakness now with the risk sentiment on the wane here so what I'm looking for with this dollar yen is any pullbacks now into 14,1338,1450 bearish traversal patterns and I'm looking for a test then of the trend channel support coming in into these prior highs here this setup plays out so 111,30s again bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side and then I'm looking for a move up to this 115,80 as the next upside objective in terms of dollar yen. Looney this one's got an interesting development here we are looking for the Looney to take out this trend line resistance on a closing basis and then I think there's a momentum setup developing to take us up into the equality objective so I'm talking about the equality objective so we are looking for equal legs versus this swing structure here and the target then for the Looney is 132,20s and that will basically be correcting this entire decline that we saw last year so if we can get this through on a closing basis then you want to be looking for intraday pullbacks to develop long positions looking for that 132 euro obviously the inverse to the dollar index. What I'm anticipating here is that we can see a correction develop ideally what we get is a scenario like this that takes us back into these prior lows at just above 115 and then from there I think we get the next leg to the downside in terms of the euro to complete a much bigger cycle we've got a weekly trend line coming in just above 110 and then once we get there I think we can see a more sustained corrective move in terms of the euro. Euro yen this is what I'm watching today I'm looking for a bullish reversal pattern here in the euro yen so looking for a green candle to to form here in with the trend candles and then I think we can get a retest of the trend line from below so this will put us back up into the 130 area and then maybe we roll over again but this would be a key test here in terms of the euro yen so just watching this area now looking for that green candle closed through the descending trend line resistance and then I'm going to be on playing that from the long side. Euro Aussie a couple of ideas here with the euro Aussie I'm looking for a test of this broken trend line support as resistance bearish reversal patterns on the short side then look to play the break with the break point from where we took out this triangle to the upside so move back into 150, 730s watch for bullish reversal patterns then to get in on the long side tackling the high volume nodes and the descending trend line resistance coming in at 162.70s in terms of the euro Aussie. Sterling trying to trying to recover here but it's the bounce so far is looking weak so the sterling view is going to probably have to be amended here to look now for price to test so we have an equality objective versus this and let me draw the swing structure then looking at so we have our essentially a b and a c target now down at 130 so what we're looking for here are basically rallies in sterling to to ultimately fail now certainly back into that 134 handle just below and then that sets up I think the washout moved down to the 130 and there may be a more sustained correction from developed from there hasn't been able to take out the trend line resistance and so it's looking a little little shaky here for sterling I really can't get bullish on it now until we get back through this pivot zone 134 so looking at another leg to the downside potentially here for sterling let's quickly look at these are the majors the Aussie yeah I mean the Aussie also looking looking weak here so whilst we whilst we hold the pivot here I would be looking for a test of the 70 handle maybe we get a reasonable bounce attempt from there but ultimately now whilst we are trading below this pivot here at the 7550 there is actually now an equality objective all the way down at 66 for the Aussie so this juncture whilst we trade below this broken trend line support this flag pattern then any any rallies are going to be an opportunity to to get in on the short side and look for a test through the 70 we're likely bounced from the the pivot there might might get as high as back into that trend line from that point but for me from that point it that that just sets up an opportunity to to short the Aussie and trade for the equality objective now down to the 6660s key we obviously also pretty weak it now whilst we trade below its broken trend line it has an equality objective down to the 65 level so first stop will be the descending trend line support we likely see a bounce from there but ultimately now I look for a test of the yearly pivot 6630s and then that's 6570 to complete the major corrective objective and that when I'm talking about that is this swing structure here equal legs and then from there we might see some some significant bounce or even the start of a new uptrend in terms of the key week so you can see how that this is feeding into the all all the majors essentially at the moment are in these are looking for these equal leg objectives to the downside equity indexes are really going to be driving action now so paying close attention to all these equity indexes and the levels that I've highlighted for you here today is going to be critical to giving really decent trading information and that's going to feed into other risk assets in terms of the dollar and then those FX managers are going to be key so that's those are the charts I'm looking at and what I'm focused on over the coming sessions if anyone has any questions or a chart they'd like me to take a look at I haven't covered now is an opportunity to either post it into the the chat or type it into the Q&A equally if you don't have a question you can type an N in the chat box that's just as useful as it lets me know I've done the reasonably good job of explaining things here and we can we can wrap today's session up okay I shall take the silence as suggesting that there aren't any questions at this point and and we're all on the same page so I'm going to wrap the session up here I strongly suggest you take advantage of the Futures Facebook group and for those who are interested in taking it to the next level you can hit me up on LinkedIn and I can give you more information about the Telegram group essentially the only thing you have to do for the Telegram group is open the futures account with Tickmail and that gives you access to to those daily live streams of me trading live during the opening hour of the cash session and and again trading view that my trade ideas I update them daily three to five markets per day that I'm actively tracking okay thanks very much for your time everyone and I hope you have found this useful all the best and we'll reconvene sometime next week