 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. And good morning everybody, Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFNN. Tommy O'Brien the fourth, he's taking the day off today. He's out there hanging out with Nana. Everyone's feeling good for the first time in a little while, so we're back at it looking forward to an hour of action packed market commentary and news. And we got some action to kick things off with the S&Ps off by 23 points. That's about half a percent. And boy, you see the acceleration, about 6.30 in the morning. Things were flat in this market. And just like that, we get a three hour run to lower prices. We're sitting at 4,300 in the S&P. NASDAQ 100, off 7 tenths percent right now, off 104 points, 14,880. We got the Dow off about 4 tenths percent, 33,500 the Russell off by nine. Crude, $88.49 this morning. Gold off $5 to $18.42. The dollar has been strong, right? To put it lightly. Dollar pushing 107.21. And the story of the day, it's been the story of the week. It's been the story of last month. It might be the story of this month. How about a 106 handle on the tenure? Now we got yields right now in the tenure, 4.71. 4.71. But yeah, I was saying, I came on the air, we were at lows. We were at 4.73. 4.74, I think, is almost what we got to on the tenure. Those are all the headlines. Highest level in 16 years, 4.71. Think about that. Over a 10 year period, guaranteed that interest rate to compound. We have not seen it in 16 years. Yeah. And let's get around to the 30 year that is recline some of those losses or clawing some of those losses back, I should say. We're back above 112. But boy, I've been talking about the fact that context is important, right? When we were having these conversations, so that's the monthly, let's put it, now you gotta put it on a monthly to go back that far. So look at the month we had in September already, we're what, two days into October? No, that's just the one day in October, 1202, is where we're sitting at. We started last month at 121 and change. You got up to 121.29, right? Mammoth moves on the 30 year, the 10 year across the board. We have the 10 year sitting at 4.73 and we are seeing a little bit of a pullback right now. But I'm jumping around to see how yields have reacted because I've been talking about the ladders, right? So what are we at? We're now at a 5.15%, five year CD, 5.15%. A five year CD, you're talking about 4.8%. Okay, it's important to have that context of where we are on a CD because that is some of the competition for market funds, at least keeping that in mind. And I keep saying it, man, if you're in the upper echelon of retirement, you're talking about retirement money that you aren't willing to see a 20% pullback ASAP, you should consider a hefty portion of your portfolio, man, in CDs, when you were pulling 5.15%, the reason why I say, let me just, I'm gonna copy this so you can take a look at it. The reason why I say the CD in particular is because it's less risk when you're into a CD. Okay, we gotta talk yields, man, we gotta talk CDs. We gotta talk guaranteed risk-free rate of return. So these are the CD rates right now. Now these are non-callable, okay? They are brokerage CDs. Make sure. But nonetheless, the guaranteed rates on each duration on a one year, you're pushing 5.5 on a two year, 5.4, three year, 5.15, a four year, let me even expand it, there we go, a four year, 4.9 and the five years pushing 4.8. Now the reason why it's so cool doing a ladder, okay, is because every year you get to catch up with what the market interest rate is protecting yourself if inflation really roars, that's the worry here, okay? Because you could say, well, geez, that's a great ladder, but you know what, I don't need to ladder things. I'm just gonna go out to that five year and go to 4.8% because I'm worried that inflation's gonna go down in the next year or two and even that five year in a year or two is gonna be dramatically lower. So that could be the case, right? That is the case that is a potential opportunity cost of locking this in, but here's the kicker. What if inflation keeps going higher? Okay, over the last year we've seen this play out. People locked in rates at a very reasonable rate of return. Okay, this is not like if you need to trade out of these that you're gonna lose capital. If you plan on holding these through expiration, through the duration of the CD, you will get that risk for your rate of return. So maybe people locked in 4% last year, but here's the problem. Inflation is still roaring, so the real rate of return is not as high as you may have anticipated, okay? By laddering CDs, your real rate of return stays closer to if it's a positive number, it's a positive number, okay? But you're more protected because if inflation goes up, when these ladders roll off on a yearly basis, what's gonna happen? You're still gonna be getting lofty interest rates to compensate you for the inflation that's roaring. The flip side of that is, is if inflation gets squashed and the economy's in trouble and the Fed is cutting, what will happen? Well, what's gonna happen then is that the interest rate that you're getting when you're laddering these is gonna go down, but that is more okay because the real rate of return is still similar when you factor in that inflation is gonna go away in that type of a scenario. Nonetheless, we're gonna keep our eye on these, man, even a two-year ladder, right? Rates are not going down for a couple of years, man. 5.5%, a two-year ladder. If you're talking about investment money, you're pushing 5.15%, and that is as of this morning, it'd be interesting to see if that changes. What were we at last week? 5.11 and 5.12 potentially on that number. So we've seen the 10-year rise, the two-year not so much. The two-year's locked in where it is right now. It is moving, okay? But I had to have that conversation because we're gonna keep our eye on that. And here's kind of the case of the two-year, right? Look at the two-year. The two-year is not even below where we were two weeks ago on Wednesday. Compare that to the 10-year, folks, okay? Two full points below where we're at. Now, that was the Fed Day Wednesday. You could say that we're a point and a half below on the 10-year, but it is the longer part of this curve, not the two-year, okay? The Fed spoke, everything calibrated. You gotta move from 101.15 down to 101.07 on Fed Day, and that's where we've stayed on the two-year versus the 10-year and even the 30-year. Look at the trend in these longer-term yields and realize that the shift is not right now on a Fed over the next two years. The shift right now is a dramatic shift in the repricing of the longer-term part of the curve. Now, we jump around from there. That is part of the equation that uninverts the yield curve, okay, because what do we have? We have a yield curve that is dramatically inverted to the tune of pulling up rates where they are on a duration basis. You get the two-year sitting at 5.11. We were approaching 5.2. We were approaching 5.2 on the two-year, okay? So we've had the two-year pullback. Meanwhile, you get the 10-year right now, 4.72, we'll call it, okay? So you're two years at 5.1, you're 10 years at about 4.7, you've got about 4.1, excuse me, 0.41% is the inversion right now between the two-year and the 10-year. Well, you might not get the two-year going down anytime soon, but what could save all the recession indicators, okay, as you're gonna get a higher rate for longer, you're gonna get a higher interest rate, maybe a higher R star that neutral rate the Fed is looking for. Stay tuned, folks. We got lots to talk about today. We're coming back with our man, Kevin Hinks from the Schwab Network. We'll be right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them, using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. 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At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN, Educating Investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigerses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. It's in red territory. You get the S&P futures off by 29 points. We're trading at 42.95 right now. That's a decline of about 2.30%. We get the NASDAQ 100. We're reaching pre-market session lows almost right now. We're trading off 8.10% off 125 points in the NASDAQ 100 to talk about some of the market action. Let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hinks. Every trading day, folks, 12 noon Eastern time. Right here on Tiger TV, the Schwab network with fast market. Your host, Kevin Hinks, Tom White, the team at the Schwab network. Great lineup of guests. They usually walk you through three hypothetical trade setups, folks. If you ever want to learn about options, okay, even if you know trade options, I always say understanding them can help any trader check out the program fast market at 12 o'clock. Kevin Hinks, how about these yields, man? Good morning, Tommy or Brian. Yeah, higher yields, higher dollar. Both of them weighing on stocks, Tommy, and it looks like the start of October is very similar to what we saw in September. So at least the start of October, Tommy. So yeah, toppy waters right now as we deal with not higher yields, Tommy, I would call them spiking yields. And the markets don't like spiking yields, Tommy. They make the market uncomfortable. Now, if they plateau out, if they calm down, the markets get less uncomfortable. But right now we are in full uncomfortable mode, Tommy. That's a good way to put it, man. Full uncomfortable mode. I was talking about, I kicked off the program, Kevin, just taking a look at the two year, which obviously moved on Fed decision about two weeks ago now, and then you have the 10 year and the 30 year, and we've really seen since two weeks ago, the longer duration yields, right? Are the ones that are really moving the most right now, at least since we got that Fed move of a couple of weeks ago. And that I was talking about potentially the yield inversion and how now you have longer term yields, they're rising a bit. You still have the two year well above where the 10 year is. But how do you look at that inversion right now, Kevin? It's got a long way to go, but longer rates going up, that would be one thing that might save all these indicators saying the yield inversion, we've all been hearing it for so long. It's a recessionary indicator. What do you think about the inversion of the yield curve still in some of that movement, especially on the 10 year and the 30 year? Yeah, the yield curve is steepening. It's not all the way there yet, but it is starting to steepen. And that's probably the function of the understanding that interest rates are gonna stay higher for longer, right? Loretta Messer said it yesterday in some of her comments. She said, her comment was, we are likely near or possibly the peak of the Fed funds tightening cycle. Now our task turns to ensuring that we keep monetary policy restricted for long enough, Tommy. So higher for longer means now the back months or the longer dated instruments are starting to move higher. So yeah, that is steepening the yield curve. We'll see how it finally plays out, but yeah, those higher yields, they affect stocks, the higher dollar, the Bank of Japan move to go back in buying bonds starting tomorrow, that's moving the dollar. Yields are higher. That works against stocks. You see stocks were, yesterday's market, Tommy, was interesting. The magnificent seven or six of the seven without Tesla kept the market looking better than it actually was in my opinion, because take those six or seven stocks out and the market was weak yesterday as well, showing that again this morning, Tommy. It was a great point. I was looking at Apple yesterday. I just pulled it up at least Apple and Microsoft when you were having the conversation, Microsoft trades from about 316 to 322 yesterday, man. And Apple shares right out of the gate jump from like 171 up to almost 174. Yeah, 174 at one point yesterday, strong day from some of those big tech stocks. With that in mind, man, October started yesterday, Kevin. We're coming into a new season of course, but we got a little bit of a low before we really kick things off on earnings. What are you guys talking about on fast market coming up on the Schwab Network at 12 today, man? We're going to look at Boeing that stock is getting absolutely annihilated lately on the downside here, getting severely oversold. Like fully this can do presentation on Spotify. And then we're going to look at Amazon in the final segment. So three really big high profile names we're looking at today, Boeing, Spotify, Amazon. Amazon, man. Quite a run from the first of the year. I got it up here on the Thinkorswim platform. $81.43, man, is the low there as we were right near the beginning of the year and quite a pullback though from that high above $145. Kevin, I appreciate the time as always. Can't wait to talk to you tomorrow. We'll see where yields drive some of this conversation and we look forward to the show today talking about some of those equities I had Boeing up there too. Quite a pullback for Boeing. I think I saw one of the airlines inking a deal with Airbus potentially this morning over the weekend. Maybe I saw that. Kevin, I appreciate it, man. Have a great day. We'll be watching at 12 o'clock today, man. Have a great day, Tommy. Thanks for having me on. Always a pleasure. Folks, check it out. Fast Market from the Schwab network. Aired every day, 12 till one right here, live on Tiger TV. Kevin Hinks, Tom White. They have an outstanding lineup of guests that they bring on and the way they walk you through hypothetical trade setups, folks, for me, it's the best way to learn. You're talking about three trades every hour that they're walking you through. They'll manage them the next day. You know, if it needs trade management, that's a lot of what you learn. And as I always say, when I bring Kevin on, if you don't trade options, that I understand, but understanding how they trade, understanding how they're priced, understanding the implied volatility with them that is priced in, et cetera, it speaks a lot about what the market is pricing in for equities as well. So even if you're an equities trader, understanding how the option market is pricing things, that's something that will help you as an equities trader, even if you don't trade options. And yeah, I'll have to find that news because I think I did see something. And I'm just seeing Wells Fargo with some stuff in terms of the news, but I thought I saw something talking about a deal potentially with one of the big airlines getting some new Airbus planes. I said, huh? All right, I'll have to fight through that at the break, but nonetheless, there's the Charter Boeing, man, pulling back from 240 to 187. And I mean, look at this thing longer term, right? Quite the spike up to 446. You got the 737 Max pullback, which was from 446 down to about 350. Then you got the COVID drop off that put it down to 100. Since then you're facing some resistance at the 240 to 250 area. That's where you pulled back from this year. You got up on the COVID highs to about 278, that high of 2021. Really interesting when you look back, right? How some of the market, it was a early spike for some equities, Boeing. I mean, we got the highs in the market at the end of 2021. By that point, Boeing had already pulled back from 280 to what, 200. I mean, another stock that made that peak early. Amazon actually, no, so not so much the case. I guess they got up to that high though. In September of 2020 and went nowhere until the market fell apart towards the end of 2021. Disney was another one, right? Early, early accelerator and had already pulled back. Yeah, made it to 2000, excuse me, 203 by March of 2021 by the time the market had peaked out. You're already back to 145. Just interesting, you learn from history folks in terms of the rollover was taking place in some of these equities and the Fang stocks. Remember, we're holding up so well. Kevin put it yesterday, holding up so well. Yeah, there was Apple's acceleration into the market highs, not a coincidence, right? Peaking out, but guess what? We got new highs from Apple, pretty remarkable. Microsoft shares, Kevin mentioned it. Strong day yesterday from some of these Fang stocks, not so much the case this morning. Microsoft charges higher to almost 322, 48 was the high, we finished the session at 321.80 yesterday. And yeah, we're gonna give up about $2, $3 right now for Microsoft shares, but quite the acceleration for them. And we got to keep our eye on yields in the dollar. Little bit of a give back in terms of the lows. We did have a 106 handle in that 10-year and as Kevin said, it might be able to handle higher rates, but boy, can it handle a 10-year going from 117 to 107 over a period of five months because that is what is happening right now, man. Stay tuned folks, we're coming back for the open. Don't go away. Currencies, commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex Report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex Report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the dollar index, the euro dollar, pound dollar, dollar Swiss, dollar yen, as well as many more. 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Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex Report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the Dollar Index, the Euro Dollar, Pound Dollar, Dollar Swiss, Dollar Yen, as well as many more, and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year T-bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex Report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60-minute webinar archive he just hosted, forex strategies and fundamentals, what is behind the Tiger Forex Report. For all the details and to start your 30-day Tiger Forex Report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. 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We have the market open and S&Ps catch a little bit of a lift coming into that opening bell. We're still down by about 20 points or just about half a percent in the S&P NASDAQ 100, off 6-tenths percent. All the markets catch a little bit of a lift in the last few minutes coming into the opening bell. Dow off 110, the Russell off by seven, and it was United, the airline. United closing in is the headline here, but I think, yeah, as soon as today. A321 Airbus, narrow-body jets, United closes in on an order for them as soon as Tuesday today. Yeah, a purchase by United would add to the A321 in the U.S. airline, the U.S. airline already has on backlog. So they have 120 already. The airlines pay about 60 million each and they had 120 on backlog. They've been loading up on the largest Airbus narrow-body as the airline retires, the Boeing 757. They've ordered some of the rival 737 MAX model as well and they've been one of the largest post-pandemic aircraft buyers and said plans to add about 700 narrow and wide-body planes over the next decade. 700 planes over 10 years, right? Hiring more than 10,000 pilots. I mean, 10 years, I know 10 years is a long time, but 10 years ain't that long a time, man, to add 700 planes on one airline. You jump over United shares down a bit, down about 6-10% right now with the market in negative territory for United. Okay, let's talk a little bit of markets. Pulling over one of the articles I was reading this morning. This one from Bloomberg, Treasury sell-off fuel speculation that bond vigilantes are back. You better believe it, man. This bond market is volatile and ripe for even more accelerations potentially. Now this story out last night and just some of the statistics in here, I mean, pretty remarkable when you look at this chart, right? Yields, we all know they were low, pandemic lows, right? 2020, Fed cuts everything. Rates go to basically zero. They're sitting 10-year Treasury yield at half a percent. My brain always goes to somehow when I see charts like this. And this is where banks decided to put all of their money when there was an influx of deposits on a long duration. How's that happen, right? And then look what happened. Yeah, of course it did. Who was locking in 0% interest rate right there, man? The risk was not worth the reward. That's something you always wanna keep in mind, folks, okay? Cash can get destroyed, but is the risk worth the reward? I mean, everything in life has a risk reward ratio, not to get philosophical, but it really does. And many times that is the calculation that drives many people in terms of what they decide to do with their action. Risk versus reward, 0% interest rates, man. Putting your money there at a long duration. And then they're never, you know, as we all know, and then everyone's surprised somehow when they go BK. But check out the acceleration, right? This is the 10-year. I said, we're at 4.7. Even from where we were a couple of years ago, right? This recent run, starting since May, where we've just really spiked from a 10-year approaching 3.5 to 4.5%, well above anywhere we've been in the last 16 years or so is the number. Now, what this talks about though is the manufacturing PMI, to give this some context here, okay? They're talking about it's been excessive given recent economic data, okay? And that it's decoupling from manufacturing data. That is the purchasing manufacturing index in red. And you see the decouple in terms of it rising as we got to rise and then quite the pullback in manufacturing, which has not correlated to a pullback in yields, okay? One other chart that I thought was cool that I thought you gold bugs may appreciate. The 10-year treasury yield diverges from copper-gold ratio, okay? Now, this is Ed, is it Ed Yardini? Believe it is, right? Yeah, economist Ed Yardini, and he's been a bear, okay? So take it for what it's worth. But he's talking about a decoupling here that is signaling, okay? Most of the bond indicators that worked in the past haven't been working. We suspect the Fed officials may soon be alarmed by the unyielding climb in yields if they aren't already, they should be. The bond yield was highly correlated with the ratio of the prices of copper-to-gold from 2005 to 2019. They've diverged significantly since then and you check out the acceleration. There is a correlation. Highly correlated, that's a little bit debatable. But yes, but you see the decoupling that has taken place, man, okay? You have the copper-gold ratio sitting at just above one. Meanwhile, you got yields pushing 5%. The last time yields were pushing 5%. In 2006 and 2007, you really got an acceleration there, not the case right now. What that means exactly? I'm not sure. He's pointing to a decoupling in yields though, okay? And that I would keep my eye on because even if these charts don't illustrate that that's what's coming, folks, there's still dramatic risk. Everybody's talking about supply and I can't help but talk about yields endlessly on the program because it's a vicious cycle, okay? When you think about the fact that number one, I've talked about that things look rosy on this chart because it goes back to 2003. You put the 30 year back here and you go back to 2003 and you see anywhere before this chart, that's the 30 year. Yeah, anywhere before that point in the chart, that's actually the high point on the chart that you were at. You actually got much lower when yields were much higher, okay? And these were not the crazy 80s times, folks. I was in high school during 97. You were the 30 year trading at 89, it's at 111. So there is room for things to change in terms of the yields and then you go to the debt. Of course that becomes political. I'm glad the country didn't shut down, okay? You gotta pay your bills. You gotta figure out how to pay the bills and we pair the debt in terms of just not paying our bills. It's probably not the solution. I understand everybody uses any type of leverage they can during a negotiation. It's tough when going over the cliff. Hurts real people in terms of those paychecks. Stop, I mean, servicemen and women stop getting paychecks during that. You're gonna have potentially payouts for retirees. All these 10 year yields we're talking about, those could be impacted, right? But all that aside, politics aside, the debt we have is a large number. If interest rates go up, that debt becomes more expensive to service, thereby requiring you to issue more debt to service the debt you have, right? It's a very difficult prospect right now. And when you think about, okay, the risk, I mean, folks, what if we just get a six to seven week stop gap measure to keep the government open and you're telling me right now that you trust the government for 30 years with your money and meanwhile you're getting barely over what you get for a five year, the risk associated on the longer term duration, government bonds with what's going on is very difficult to assess as somebody that is just looking at the risk reward of receiving your money back on a timely basis, okay? I don't imagine things are gonna fall apart in the next year or two. But over the course of 10 to 20 to 30 years, I hope we're still paying our bills. But if I was viewing this as a business transaction where the other counterparty was just a business entity and I saw the inner workings of that business entity barely keeping their operations open, barely basically giving themselves the ability to issue more debt to pay the bills they've already incurred. And I considered lending that business money. I would have a severe risk on a longer term basis understanding why I never saw the potential for an impasse that somehow stopped payments to a certain degree. With that in mind, right? Yields may be persisting because you're gonna have a supply problem, man, okay? And until we get that under control, I think rates on a longer term basis have to go higher and we're seeing that happen. Stay tuned folks, markets in red, we'll be right back. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. 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In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other Tigers and Tigris' as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablet as well, so it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Folks, we get the S&Ps right now, off by about 20 points. You get the NASDAQ 100 off by 80, the Dow off by 95, and talking a little bit of Fed, talking a little bit of interest rates right now. You have, is the Atlanta Fed, excuse me? Yes, Rafael Bostic. Yes, Atlanta Fed chief. Just wanted to make sure for some reason question myself. So he's out here this morning, making a lot of sense I think. I'm not in a hurry to raise, but I'm not in a hurry to reduce either. The Fed should hold interest rates at elevated levels for a long time, quote unquote, to bring inflation back down to its 2% target. He called that 2% non-negotiable. Can't wait to see if they actually try and tweak that going forward. Times change though, as we know folks. So I want us to hold, I think that's appropriate thing to do for a long time. That's what they're saying now, it doesn't have to be the case. He does not vote on the rate decisions this year, okay? But this is the message getting pushed out there and I think it's probably gonna be the way that plays out at least for the November meeting. There are almost 5.5%. Where the economy is growing right now is not 5.5%. So it's probably a restrictive, everything's probably in this, right? Cause I don't know where exactly the economy is growing right now on October 3rd. So everything is kind of a personal take opinion, guess best guess scenario with the information available. But they're at almost 5.5%. The economy's probably, inflation is probably not 5.5% right now. The economy's probably not growing at 5.5%. That means it's a restrictive rate policy. As the rates go down, right? Excuse me. As inflation wanes, as growth recedes a bit from the growth that drove generational inflation, that 5.5% actually becomes more restrictive. The closer the Fed gets to their 2% goal. So that's even more worrisome if you're still hiking at a time when you have inflation coming down. Let's just say you think inflation is at about 4% right now. Let's do 4.5. Let's say people out there think inflation's at about 4.5%. Now on a core basis, it's probably a little bit lower than that right now, which is what the Fed is looking at. So let's say core inflation's at about 4%, okay? Just using simple numbers. The Fed is at about 5.5%, okay? It's a percentage and a half above the growth rate in the economy if that was the R star, which doesn't quite correlate, right? Inflation does not equal R star, but R star is kind of the natural growth rate of the economy that if the Fed matches the R star, that that is bliss, that's euphoria, right? The cost of capital is just equivalent to the growth rate, therefore not allowing it to overheat or over cool, okay? But they're all theoretical numbers. Nobody actually knows where that number is today, which is important. They're just trying to peg that number. But let's say R star's at 4%, the Fed's at 5.5%, right? Well, let's say they bring inflation down a bit. Now you have core inflation at 3.5%. Fed's still at 5.5%. It's even more restrictive now, because the growth of the economy is only 3.5%, and they're still at 5.5%. Then you get it down to 3%, right? Well, geez, now it's really restrictive because the economy was growing at 4%, and the Fed was charging 5.5% for capital. But now it's only growing at 3%, and they're still charging 5.5% for capital. It's a bigger restrictive gap that it has on the economy. You get down to 2.5%, you get the point, right? So what happens? As they get closer to 2%, that rate that they are at, even if they just stay there, is akin to putting more pressure actually on the economy. That could be an argument for eventually some cuts. You start getting down to those numbers because if they leave it at 5.5% for too long, what's gonna happen? It's gonna become too restrictive because we get closer to 2%, and you still got the Fed pushing 5.5%, that could tighten the economy to a degree that could cause a recession. We get to see it all play out, but I thought that was an interesting take when you walk through the scenario of how that plays out. And yes, so keeping things higher for longer, as long as the trend keeps going that way, or even if it just stays, excuse me, folks, even if it just stays where it is right now, is in if inflation is staying at 4% and we're making marginal gains to 3.8%, to 3.75%, to 3.6%, every little marginal gain you get actually means that staying where you are for the Fed has more impact. It is a more restrictive policy than it was prior because as you inch towards 2%, remaining at the current rate that they're at, the Fed at 5.5% almost, puts more pressure on the economy. So keep that one in mind too, as they start having those conversations about potential cuts because at some point, a 5.5% Fed policy rate on a growth rate of like 4%, you could probably make the case that if the Fed's brought the growth rate down from 4% to 3%, well, maybe they could ease up a little bit on their 5.5% because you don't need to be at 5.5% anymore because now you've got the inflation rate down from 4% to 3%. So even a number of 5% or 4.5% would still have an impact. It's kind of just a thought process, but that is going to be something we deal with if the Fed starts making progress. The flip side of that is if it starts going up again, that is the scenario that they probably will consider hiking again. I think if we stay where we're at right now, they're just going to give it a long time because in theory, they are at a restrictive policy rate, man. And yes, it's going to take some time, but they'd rather do that than really start messing with what, 10% mortgage rates, a 7% tenure yield, stuff like that. That would really put some strain on the economic engine of capital and how it flows through the economy. Okay, what else do we got in here? Yeah, let's talk about that. Jamie Diamond, he's talking about that the children are going to live to 100 and not have cancer because of technology, very reasonable with the way biotech is progressing right now. And I like this one even better. They'll probably be working three and a half days a week. Why not three, Jamie? Why not three? No, I kid. Interesting nonetheless, where does this fall? Because I have a kid who's two years. You saw him on the program yesterday. And I mentioned this in some of those talks, the auto workers are having, right? Five day work week, two days of rest. Be able to question the norm, man. Okay, there's no reason why with the level of wealth and technology that our country has in particular, and many countries out there in the first world, that the five to business model could not be achievable in another fashion, especially with where technology is today and the ability to work remotely. So, you know, they're talking about the auto workers potentially working four days. Well, you can make a very reasonable case outside of the personal bias that we all have because we've grown up in an economy where people are expected to work Monday through Friday and you're on the weekend, Saturday and Sunday can make a very reasonable case that working four days a week and only resting three days a week is still a lot of work for a lot of people. And I guarantee that the country could figure it out because guess what? Everybody said you couldn't work from home and figure it out. And we figured it out in like two weeks when we needed to, right? So just be able to be open to change and be aware of your personal biases. For certain companies, it's not gonna happen, okay? For certain positions, you still gotta work six days a week. But as time progresses and technology increases and AI helps things in terms of productivity, right? Very possible to achieve those types of productive gains with technology that might allow you not to have to work five and then rest two. All right, folks, stay tuned. We got one more segment. S&Ps right now, negative by 12 points. Markets catch a little bit on the open. Stay tuned, we'll be right back. The Gold Report. As a precious metal gold is still king, it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the dollar, bonds, the South African RAND, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in a stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. 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Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Folks, we have yields. Yeah, pulling back a bit from where we were. Let's check out in terms of where we are on that yield curve. But you talk about a pop right now. You have the 10-year trading at 106.29. We've driven all the way up to 107.10. You're talking about a 10-year yield just under 4.7% right now. We were at about 4.73, I think, 4.74. Almost 4.75% on the 10-year yield. We almost hit this morning. We're right at about 4.7% right now. And markets easing a bit. As we've seen that with the S&Ps, had a 4,200 handle to kick off the program. We're trading right now at 4,315. And folks, if you didn't get a chance to check it out yesterday, a new program started yesterday on TFNN, our man Peter Bruno, the Wall Street Money Hour. So that is live from 2-3pm eastern time. That's Monday through Friday, every market day. He'll be in the slot right before my dad, coming up at 3 o'clock. So check out Peter's outstanding program yesterday. I know he's excited, man, to be doing the program out there every day. He's going to have the Wall Street Money Letter that's going to be up there on the website as well shortly. But check out the program 2-3pm yesterday it began. But that's every market day. Today, Wall Street Money Hour with Peter Bruno. So check that out at 2 o'clock today if you haven't yet, folks. And this market, you talk about relentless, right? We just got back 20 points in the S&P. We jump over to the VIX this morning, backing off a bit, but still relatively high. You're pushing an 1,815 VIX right now. And as we finish it up, we got about 30 seconds here. Article from the Journal I found interesting this morning. This went out at 8 in the morning. Wall Street thinks America's homes are overvalued. Okay. And this talks about, of course, as prices paid for the average single-family property hit record highs, you have big investors potentially taking a pass. How about single-family homes? Okay. Property values back above where we were at a year ago. Remember that? We just got prints for, I think it was June or July talking about we were actually above. Multi-family? Not quite the case, man, for big investors. How about this chart here? The portion of U.S. home purchases made by landlords with 1,000-plus houses. Look at the fall-off. As you got big-time investors pulling back, yield's playing a part of that for sure. Okay. Yield's playing a part of that for sure. And that's not even talking about corporate. And watch out for corporate as the world has changed. And, yeah, commercial real estate changed as well. Thanks so much, folks. Stay tuned. We got Basil coming up next. Have a great day. We'll see you tomorrow, folks.