 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044. Now, David White. And welcome all to another exciting edition of the Power Trading Hour with me, your humble, lovable and squeeze-fully soft host. As we come into the final stretch of the day, S&Ps up 28 points. Now that would be the big news of the day. If we didn't go down here and see that we've got less than 3.8 billion shares on the day, we continue to go into these highs and the volume all falls out. Now, one of the reasons for that was, in fact, I'm writing about it now. Let me pull this back up. I've heard this for a while and I've done it for many times, but I'm going to give you a little bit of what's in the tech insider today. I forget exactly where it was. Maybe John and the Den can remember. But everything looked perfect for Amazon. They were coming in earnings. Earnings actually were fairly good. There were zero shorts in it. They're probably a handful of shorts, but there were almost no shorts in it. And the thing went from a, memory serves me maybe 9.25, 9.50 or something like that, straight down to 960 bucks. And it, I think, got down to like 700 to solve for memory. And there was nothing wrong with it. The problem was that everybody that had ever gotten along or wanted to be long at the time, or even close to being long anywhere around that time, had gotten along. There was nobody to buy it. It didn't matter whether the earnings were good. Everybody that wanted to be in it was in it. And generally you can tell that when the shorts just eventually go away. We've got a market that has incredibly light short interest in it on the grand scale. Individual stocks, there'll always be stocks that are hated. They'll tend to bounce on a day like this for people that have too short a horizon for shorting. And they're the easiest hands to shake free. When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else will happen. That is one of the axioms of trading. It's not magic. When everybody who wants to buy is bought, there are no more buyers. At this point the market must turn lower and vice versa. So you've got to see that, but it certainly looks to me like if we don't get a signed deal extremely shortly that we're in problems. Secondarily, today is the last day of fun buying. This is generally as good as it gets for a while for fairly big moves. And did we have a handful of people that probably got in short the last couple of days? Yeah, but was it a big deal? The answer is no. There wasn't that much. They're pushing them today. Now, if there were a bunch of people that piled on after the Fed, we would have seen that volume in reverse today. We have not seen it. We also go into two weeks of sucking out about maybe $12, $13, $14 billion for new IPOs over the next couple of weeks. That money will have to be raised and will have to come somewhere. And it didn't come from people throwing money from the sidelines in maybe a little bit. But there's going to be pressure on this market for a while to come up with that cash after they're out the door. Then the markets kind of return, but don't be surprised if we see very soft markets come Monday, maybe Tuesday. I think we're kind of right in there. We've got a lot of pushes. And again, we'll look at some volumes today. My guess is it's going to be horrific across almost all of them. Dollar index really whippy, which isn't good for the market. It ran up earlier in the day, got to almost $97.80. It's now back down. I mean, it took like what, five, six bars here, go back down to $97.20. Gold a little lower in the morning, but did gap up a bit. GLD holding fairly well in the 12080s range. It doesn't look like there's a lot of volume when you go lower. And what else do we have going on out here? I mean, some of these dogs are bouncing like Tesla and some of the other ones. But I don't think you can read in a lot to them. The ones that I've been watching for like Micron and AMD, AMD is basically flat. Micron's up on fairly tepid move, not breaking the new highs. It's kind of telling us some stuff. Microsoft did have a lot of people piling on. Apple continues to see people do stupid things by piling on it. And maybe the easiest reason to think that maybe Apple stays high is, again, that people won't quit shorting it. Now, that makes it easy for people to continue to push the market higher. But the question is, how broad is this market pushing higher? And the answer is in the summation decks. Probably the best medium term indicated there is. It takes every one of the S&P 500 or maybe the New York Stock Exchange or maybe the NASDAQ and says where they hire a lower. Now, it doesn't give you a lot of how much higher and lower. But you can kind of see that in the charts. But what we've had is a declining, advanced decline line over time. And that's always problematic when you go and combine that with pushing higher with lighter volume. Now you've got two things telling you that there is not extensive demand higher. Doesn't mean that the market's going to turn on a dime. But it does tell you that you should be extra careful. Those little hairs on the back of your neck where you feel the little breeze before the tornado hits. You should be paying attention to those. Anyway, I suspect that we at least see a little bit of a pullback Monday and Tuesday. And the question is at that point we start getting into options expiration. You have to have a fairly compelling case that we will be going lower. If you do go lower into options expiration, generally you go extensively lower, not just a little bit lower. We'll look at some of these charts. We've got plenty of time for everybody to give me a call at 877-927-6648. You can email me a path at TFNN.com. And of course, you can always put a message in the den. What do we got going on for history today? History repeating. History repeating. On this day in 1948, the Supreme Court issues a decision in U.S. for Paramount Pictures at Al. The government's long-running antitrust suit against Paramount Pictures and seven other major Hollywood studios is finished. They lost. The government cases accused the studios of violating the Sherman Antitrust Act in their total control over movie distribution and exhibition. At the time, the seven studios controlled almost all the movies, countries movies, theaters, even through ownership or their own theater chains. And a process called block booking. But you know what? A lot of that law is going to be used against the social media companies soon. We'll be back in a minute. The Taz Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence? 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TFNN.com educating investors. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. They had an email yesterday didn't have time to get it in from Pete in San Francisco. We keep hearing that there's no inflation. What world do these people live in? Most of the monthly expenses like health care, bridge tolls, rents, real estate insurance and parking have gone up dramatically over the last few years. Now, I will give you this. Pete lives in San Francisco. So his experience may be wildly different than us, especially if we're wondering whether or not that guy is doing something on the corner. San Francisco may be doing something completely different if you know of the troubles that they have in San Francisco. Anyway, we do have inflation. The question is whether or not earnings for individuals and corporations are going up faster than the underlying inflation. They also have to get things off the books. And generally that's by a three or four percent inflation rate. So why the Fed is not, they're really not talking to you on whether or not there's inflation for that. They're actually saying there's not enough inflation to outrun all the debts in the market we've encumbered before this. They'd like the inflation rate to be somewhere around three, three and a half percent and then add back on higher interest rates. Around two percent is problematic. But, you know, we just found out that average hourly rates, not rates, average hourly, or people that are paid by the hour. The average went up about another buck in the last reporting period up to about 2750 for the average across America for those people being paid hourly. So, you know what? It has a lot to do with your experience. If you live in Florida, I'm paying $2.60 for gasoline or maybe $2.55. I didn't go out and look last night, but I got gas on Wednesday at $2.58, I think. I know you're paying probably closer to five bucks in San Francisco. So, just be aware that while not totally antidotal, that your experience in California is probably going to be wildly different than many other people. But I get your point. It's just not as bad as most people think. And when the Fed talks about inflation, they're talking about inflation that can outrun what we've done in the past. And that's the way that they get rid of things that they pay far too much is paying with discounted dollars going forward. So, just understand the audience that the Fed actually speaks to. They're not speaking to somebody working in a place where the average small knockdown house is a million bucks. A million bucks down here buys you a place on the ocean. So, you know, a lot of it depends on where you're at. What else is going on here? What do we have? We did this, wanted to look at a couple of things, and we'll bring that up. First one is, like I said, a couple of these stocks people just keep shorting them. And really what you want to do on that, let me bring this other thing up, is kind of short them when they quit. We talked a little bit last week with Tom O'Brien about our long-term short where we started shorting at about $345 or $340 or something on Tesla. That's a long-term short. We still haven't covered it. I think it has a lot farther to go, but we shall see. But the thing is that it had like a 45% short interest rate at one time. Normally what you want to do is wait until that drops in about half. Whatever it is, it just seems like it does. That if it's got a 45% short interest in it at some time, probably too dangerous for you to hold as an individual investor. But when it gets down about 25%, I still don't like it that much, but guess what? If you've got an overwhelming condition as Tesla did, you can start trying to figure a way to ladder yourself in to those massively shorted stocks already. But at 25%, that's generally when they drop in half. That's generally when you want to get them. I've been looking at some options this week, and that's exactly what happened today. I bought half of what I'm going to buy in this option because the price dropped in half today. And generally the conditions we talked about yesterday, the day before with these double repo patterns, is shaping up very nicely. I suspect we have a ton of them all setting up when I do my scans over the weekend. So why there is no guarantee, I'm all about the risk reward. I'm all about the asymmetrical return, and the huge warnings that I have or do get will offset the losses. Now, if you're trading at actual equity, you kind of have to wait until you get the signal. If you're trading options, you kind of have to decide that you're going to commit, but not dedicate yourself to a trade, but not commit yourself to it. And like I said, one of the reasons I know that the market has a very little short interest in that is just how incredibly cheap puts have become in the marketplace. That tells you one thing, and that is just like a bookie who's doing both sides of a football game, he will just continue to make the spread a little bit bigger until he gets people to offset both sides of the book. And that's what they have to do in options, especially this early in the month and on, fun buying, not a bad time to start looking at the ones if you think a stock is going to reverse course. Both puts and calls, by the way, because a lot of times a stock will bottom in this time period. A lot of times also it will hit highs and let you know about that. As I said about short interest, I go through it each day. I made my own database to actually track it. The data is publicly available on FINRA, but if you actually take a look at it and say, okay, what's happening? You can get those daily numbers and you can get the monthly numbers, actually by monthly numbers. And you can see just how many people are betting on the other side of it. When they give up, if it's a stock that's kind of hated, that's generally when a good time to start looking at it. And if everybody decides to short, almost 80% sign that the stock's going higher. So do what the opposite of what most everybody else does and generally it'll do pretty good. Now, I continue to say, I don't know what's wrong with these people. Apple's got $250 billion on Wednesday. 20% of all the shares I went through were short sales. I don't get it. We'll be back in a minute. The path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter. And if you're looking for active trading ideas, then now is a perfect time for a 30 day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service. 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And the numbers basically are what I follow. And they're just given a handful of stocks that are heavily shorted for unknown reasons. I don't see it. Certainly don't see it in the market or see it in the money. And like I said, you never know if you're right or not when you put on a trade. I think I have a pretty good call on whether or not it's a little bit higher or a whole lot lower. And you, I am a different trader than many, greatly influenced by rule, fooled by randomness, a book by Nassim Taliib, who asked a question in his book, which is, you know, let's say we have trades and we're trading options. And you have 10 losing trades in a row and you lose a dollar on each one of them. And then the 11th trade, you make 20 times your money. So now you've almost doubled what you have. Are you a good trader or not? Most people would say no. They want that base hit every day. They want to take home money like they're earning for earning a daily wage. And eventually I've been able to be incredibly right and kind of vaguely wrong for a long time. And over time it does extremely well. Some people can be a little right a lot and then they get hammered over time. And the big gaps down or up eventually kill them. And thank God I'm going to knock on wood here. It's been like since 2012 where I had a stock that actually got smacked fairly bad. It still happens and it's going to happen if you play, you will get a surprise, but generally not if you're trading in the direction of the summation index. It is a great long-term model. Nothing tests better longer term. The problem is you have to be able to sit a long time until you get the bounce that the stock's going to give you. So you can feel rather horrible for a while with it. And that makes it tough to trade, but it does make it easy to say, OK, overall stocks are closing lower on the advanced decline line over time. Fewer stocks push the indexes higher. That tells you the breath is narrow and historically that's been a very good signal to say that the top of the market is fairly good coming in. Volume also, not when it just comes down a little, but as we talked about comes down a great deal. Previous times at these levels in the stock market, those indexes and the market volume had turned 10, 11, 12 billion shares. It is problematic to be looking at a market today that's coming in and is just now with an hour and 30 minutes left hit 4 billion shares. That is telling you something and it's not that the economy's bad. You want to separate the economy from the stock market. The stocks can bounce incredibly hugely off the bottom. And that's just because they're oversold. So you have to, at least for some level of time, disconnect those two. Anyway, no volume, huge move with the exception of a handful of stocks like Apple. Very few people shorting anything of volume. And again, options after the option market makers have been beat to death generally are not pushing a lot out the door. So those markets tend to be a little thinner. So when I see an option drop in price with no significant reason to do so by half, I have to act and I did that today. Anyway, I did half of it today. I'll do probably another half on Monday, but I like the risk reward. I don't mind betting a dollar to get five or 10 and being wrong half the time. That's a way to go to and make a lot of money. Now, like I said, you haven't gotten the signal in equities. So don't go getting froggy just yet. In options, you have to be there ahead of time. You have to have a fairly good call. And one of the nice things, like I said now, with a VIX in the dumper, they're cheap. They're much cheaper than actually owning the stock. In fact, I looked at a couple of stocks that I wanted to go long. It would still be, I think considerably cheaper to buy the calls than actually own the equities themselves. And that tells you generally one thing and that is nobody's expecting the unexpected. And why when everybody agrees, I want to take the other side of that market. I have to take the other side of that market. I have to be on that wall. Anyway, we will move upwards and onwards from some of the stuff that we've talked about. I wanted to see how some of these stocks did yesterday that we talked about in the double repo patterns. So we'll do that because that's really what I'm looking at. Did those stocks or will some of those stocks actually able to close or come right back up to that level? And some of them continue to be weaker today like CBS. And generally this pattern is very good. In fact, CBS may be the textbook case in this. And that is even on a good day. This thing's already turned south. In the meantime, you can give me a call at 877-927-6648. Email me at path at tfnn.com. And of course, you can always put a message in the den. Hector wants to know how many people are still short in BEV. And I don't look at that. But you know what? We will take a look at it before the break here and I will give him an answer. Again, there are two numbers that you are two different numbers that you want to look at. Those are daily shorts from FINRA. You don't know how many of those people covered before the end of the day. Some of that shorting each day is the market maker for the stock. That will be somewhere between 7, 6 or 7% and 15%. And that's just to continue a market going. They will be square by the time they leave the end of the day. But they will continue some option market making. So there's going to be a base level that has nothing to do with the long-term shorting of it. But a very good question from our fan out here, Hector, on IMBEV because I hadn't looked at it. 36% yesterday. Now, what figure a market maker has to do 10% to keep the market moving during the day? That means that 26% of the shares yesterday were people shorting the thing. It's a $5 stock. You're bad, crap, crazy short a $5 stock when they've got that kind of stuff. We'll look at the bi-monthlies on this when we come back. The interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis. According to bankrate.com, the best rate for a four-year CD in the country as of February 20th is 3.1%. A $50,000 investment at a normal four-year CD rate of 3.1% would give you income of $1,550 per year or $6,200 over the four-year period. That same $50,000 investment in the Tiger First mortgage program would give you $3,500 per year or $14,000 over the four years. What should you prefer, $6,200 or $14,000 of interest on your investment? If you'd like more information about the Tiger First mortgage program, you can call me at 877-518-9190. That's 877-518-9190. 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Normally somewhere around the 24th, you get the data of the close of the 15th. And generally somewhere around the 10th to the 12th of the month, you will get the data on how it closed on the first. So you're kind of always looking in the rearview mirror on it. That's why I also look at those FINRA data that shows how many people shorted every day. Again, you don't know how many people covered, but you can get an indication that when those numbers hit the highs, you almost always have some kind of lows. And yeah, 32% ongoing for MBEV. And of course, when you look at the short percentage for yesterday, it was 36% the day before, 32% day before that, 28% the day before that, 33, 33, 30, 32, 30. I don't know who are these people. Anyway, got another question about the biggest winner in the market today. That was Carbon Black and what kind of short percentages that you saw in that. On the daily, not much. On the monthly, you had about three days to cover. So, you know, that was one that actually the short interest actually kind of dropped. A lot of people that were shorted got out in the last reporting period. So not that bad. 4.3% of the market. So, yeah, you can't really say that it was much of a short squeeze on Carbon Black. I think it was up 18% today. It is like many in that sector of cybersecurity, CB, LK. But it is showing you there's a little bit of life in some of these. This had gapped down on Monster Volume back on the 21st of February. It consolidated a very long time. I wouldn't have bought it for earnings. I didn't see anything in it, but I certainly wouldn't have been short this thing. Volume had been light out here. And of course, you had 18% pop for the day. But you know what? The last time you saw shorting, again, during the, why I'm on the air here, I do show that short interest with the top of the candle for the volume down here. Got my little pointer over it if you're watching on Tiger TV in the bin. And it shows the short volume in the stock. That's just because I have that data that I collect here locally. But I put it in there. Anyway, it's something that you should always think about and look at. Also, you can always find the bi-monthly short data on the Wall Street Journal's website. You need links to any of those things. FINRA or the rest, just email me at path at TFNN.com. So a nice pop probably didn't have a whole lot to do with that. Maybe this was a whole lot of accumulation after this blew up. But you didn't get a real good sign out here that anything one way or the other was happening before it. Certainly didn't have a lot of people that were just caught on the wrong side. A handful probably didn't like it, but a nice day. Did fill all that gap, which is not uncommon to the stocks coming back and filling gaps. But that gap back on the 21st basically filled it today. And you know what, earnings were good. But at the same time, you're either hitting new highs and pulling back underneath those highs, or you're filling gaps like this. And that's kind of the exhaustion move on the day. I would not think that carbon black is going to go much higher over the next few days. That is probably an exhaustion move. But you now start looking at other stocks in that same sector. And hopefully if the earnings aren't coming up anytime soon, you may get a little bit of love spread on those. Okay, got some more emails here, I think. Let's go back and take a look at that. Yes, someone said that there's an Easter egg at the end of the Avengers movie about Theranos. I'd heard about it. I haven't seen the movie. I didn't see the one before it. I haven't seen any of the other adventure movies either. Just not my cup of tea. Like I told somebody, the thing I'm waiting for the most is the Deadwood movie to come on. What is it? Showtime? HBO? I think it's HBO. To me, that was a great, great, great TV show. It ended far too early. The first three seasons were absolutely mind blowing. But again, it's not a TV series for the timid. It is in your face, like Oz or The Wire or some of those other ones. It's not that some people call it Shakespeare in the mud, which I think is a good description. And of course, that spun off a TV series on FX. Another one that I'd love to watch even on the reruns, which is Justified, which is an Elon. Emore Leonard short story that was turned into a series that I think is just fantastic. Some of the best television series I've ever seen. And again, they're hiring scriptwriters to actually write stuff for people to actually say and recite. It's not just another car blowing up or a gunfight, although there are plenty of those in Justified. I'll give a little nod of the head, a little tip of the hat to those. Okay, what else do we want to look? I've got a question about Microsoft. Now, I'm going to talk a little bit about it with Tom O'Brien today in the tech insider hour. But next week, we're going to learn a great deal about what's going on in Microsoft and in Google, both of their developer conferences next week. And of course, if they're going to do something and they want other people to be and work with it, they got to kind of announce it at that level. Now, I didn't talk a lot about Microsoft's earnings, did pop on earnings, but it continues to amaze me. A company that's done nothing but software for the most part has really been able to turn on two things, and that is the cloud services and its hardware production. They are really starting to put a world of hurt on other PC manufacturers with their Surface laptops and their other true, well, I guess they're kind of tablet like PCs, then they have a laptop. And then they have a workstation, which apparently they are selling the living daylights out of people that used to buy very expensive Mac workstations. But yeah, Autodesk, a bunch of other people, hard, artistic people are using Microsoft's big thing. If you go into Best Buy, take a look at it. It is absolutely mind-blowing how beautiful it is. We'll be back with it. I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money, let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. I'm Steve Rhodes, author of Mastering Probability, and for the last 12 months, Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals, which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12, 6, and 3 months. 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This is the go-to newsletter that identifies, monitors, and profits on mostly little-known cutting-edge companies with great long-term prospects. David's experience is as an inventor of Emmy-winning animation products for TV and Hollywood that propelled a company public. Match that with 14 years as a full-time trader, and he's uniquely qualified to guide you through the light-speed world of ever-evolving high tech. If you're ready to ride the next big technology bull market for less than $40 per month, log on to TFNN.com and get your two-week free trial to The Technology Insider. Get in on the ground floor of the next big thing today. Since 1984, Basil Chapman has been using the Chapman Wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion. While originally hand-drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s, Basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply. Later, Basil found that computer software, which included the standard market technical indicators, enhanced the degree of accuracy in calling price turns as well as market trend calls. Thus was born the Chapman Wave Sequence. Using the Chapman Wave methodology along with other indicators, Basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter. Right now you can get a two-week free trial to the opening call, Basil's daily trading newsletter, by visiting the front page of TFNN.com. Cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing. Get your two-week free trial to Basil's newsletter, the opening call today by visiting TFNN.com. Also, a special guest on CNBC. Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show, next on TFNN. Apple and Microsoft had one more question in FLX about Netflix. Interesting idea about how they're going to cut down the price going forward of their content. And probably talk to Tom about that either in the 3.30 hour, maybe next week, depends on how fast we get through my list of stuff that we talked about. But very interesting, and that is that they are trying to cut costs down. I got rid of them at the beginning of this year, last year. I can't even remember it's been so long since I've had it. I got Amazon Prime. I keep looking at all the new stuff on Netflix, and there doesn't seem to be a lot that really calls my name. So, I don't know. Seems like Amazon Prime just seems to have a lot more of the stuff that I want to watch. But, you know, when they've got a few new things on a watch yet, then I go back to watching X-Files. And remember those days when alien colonists were going to come on and overtake the world. And that was kind of a dark time when conspiracies really flew. I forgot how really weird some of those things were. And of course, I had a lot of customers that worked on that show for the special effects. So, I never got that close that wasn't one of the things that one of the ones we did generally was like movies. They were trying something that they didn't know what would work. And television, you kind of have to know that it's going to work. You're going to have to have somebody actually show you that it works before you get into it. You can't hope that your special effects comes out at the end. But that's kind of it. Well, I wouldn't say no volume. I'm going to say vapor volume going into the weekend. Dollar taking a big left turn. And no juice in the markets. Gold a little bit on the rise. I think I smell something. I smell something. In the meantime, sell when you can, not when you have to. We'll see you here Monday, same channel, same bat time. See you with Tom O'Brien at 3.30.