 S&Ps are up 16 and a half. Let's get over to our man, Mr. Tim Ord from the Ord Oracle. Now, Tim is on every Thursday, folks, at 20 past the hour. I'm not gonna be here tomorrow, so we're gonna have him on today. You can reach Tim though every trading day at odd.oracle.com. Tim Ord, what's going on? Well, thanks for having me on again. You know, we talked, I don't know, a week or two ago, we were talking just kind of between you and I. And I always says, you know, the market bottoms on panic. And I got some indicators to show that. I don't know if you remember that conversation or not. So when everybody's run away from the market and, you know, they're scared, they're scared, you really should go towards the market. But you got to really find where that panic is. There's a little bit of panic, there's a lot of panic. Yes. The ideal situation is find the most panic you could buy, the most panic you can find and buy in that area. I don't know if you remember this back, I think in 1998, we were on the radio. I remember in July. Yep. I think it was in September. Was it September? 1998. Yeah, it was September. It started in July. Okay, right, yes. Yeah. And I think it was September. And we were on the radio. That was back then, I think you were on the internet radio or something. You had a program going on. Yeah, no, it was regular radio. It was AM radio also. Right, exactly, yeah. Right. Okay. So anyhow, it was about half hour to the close. And anyhow, I was messing around with ticks at that time. A little bit ticked and still kind of learned about how that trend worked. But anyhow, the ticks were going on, I don't know, 1,100, 1,200, 1,500 down tick readings. It was about a half hour before the close. And I remember telling you, I got to get off the liner as a phone here. Yep. Because I'm going to buy some call options. Right. And then so anyhow, that was, I don't remember what day that was or anything, but I think we're back. And this is what happened, folks. And I remember this so well, Tim. And what happened is that's when Ben, no, that's when Greenspan and Ruben came on the TV at approximately, I don't know, about 3.30. And they brought the interest rate down two points or something. Yeah. And that was the end of the Asian Custodian. Right. That was amazing. Right. That was about as intense as you can get. I was, because I was screaming, because I was still shot, Tim. I remember, because that's when we were trading live on the air and I was screaming, it's not fair, it's not fair. I was talking about being naive, right? Well, you know, that turned out to be the barb in the market. Yes. Yes, it did. I mean, it really turned around in a hurry. I don't know exactly that time, but within, you know, that for the close, I think it closes pretty much the bottom. And the market really took off over the next several days, but anyhow. So what shot do you want me to bring up first? Well, do a chart number one, and this is kind of looking at the bigger view and this chart goes back to I don't know, mid-2017. The bottom window is a six three day average of the trend. Yes. The next window up is a hundred day average of the trend. Okay. And what the trend is, is the up volume divided by, or the advancing issues divided by the up volume, divide that by the declining issues divided by the declining volume. Yes. So it kind of takes volume into consideration and also the advanced decline. And so what it kind of does is measures the volume on the advanced usage of the major volume on the declining issues and what your ideal situation, you want the volume to really hit on the declining issues, because that will drive the trend way up in, you know, one or two or three to get lucky. Yes. That's when everybody's panicking. And so, and that's an ideal situation to find panic, because when everybody's on one side of the fence, you want to get on the other side of the fence. And the trend is a good indicator of finding where that panic is. So on these bigger time frames, it seems to work pretty well when you got a trend reading for the six three days, well six three days is actually three months. It kind of close enough anyhow. Okay. When you get a trend reading around 1.1, or you get a hundred or you get both around 1.1, there's usually a good sign for intermediate term. And that's shaded blue areas. Okay, I see that, yep. And so over the last, this chart's current today. So over the last, well started basically in January, if you notice that six three day and a hundred day trend are pretty much in the panic area, especially right now. And so if you look at the chart on the SPYs above, you're kind of round off numbers around the 400 level. So it's a good sign that on a bigger timeframe, we had it back in, and it looks like about, well my size, about May to November pretty much, you had a high trend reading, then in December kind of fell back down and basically from January on, you've been pretty much in a panic level. And then generally you've been in panic level since last May, you really haven't gone anywhere. Right. If last May you just pounding out a kind of trading range. But with the trend high as it is on the six three day and a hundred day mild scenario, you're building a bottom in here. Right. And so actually it's flipped to the next chart. That looks at the intermittent term. Okay. And we have a message chart. I don't know how many to make it really. No, it looks good. It looks good to him. All right. But buddy, I'm back in the bottom window. Is this a little bit of shorter timeframe right now? And the bottom one was a 10 day trend. Okay. And so every time the 10 day trend on the bigger timeframes is 1.1. On the smaller timeframes like the 10 day, 1.2 seems to work well. And the shaded tan areas are shaded. That looks like tan to me. Pink area, I guess you might say. It's times when the 10 day trend was right around 1.2. And so I did that. If you notice, all those shaded pink areas come in a price range, which is I shaded it light blue between 370 to approximately 400. Yes. So that tells me that whole area is a base area. Right. Because if you got panic since last May, every time it got into that 370, which is a big trading range, but there's a bunch of panic in there. If that was opposite, say we had a trend reading, you get down around 1.8, which is that green area, those green bars in there. Yes. If you notice every time it got down there, you were near a high like 0.8. Yeah. Well, we've been mostly down above around 1.2. So we did have some declines every time we got down 10 days and 1.8, you were probably nearest, at least a short term high. But in general, with the panic that I'm appearing in the market, between 370 to 400, we're just building a great big base here for the market to rally in. Just keep that thought for a second, because this is really cool. What he's saying, folks, okay, which is so cool, you know, is that it seems like there hasn't been panic here, but there has because the amount of selling and the fact of the matter is we really, we've still been in a consolidation up and going down. You stay right there, Tim and I are coming right back, folks, Dow's down 103, Nasdaq is off 125, S&P's down 20, Tim and I are coming right back. Welcome back, folks. Talk to my man, Mr. Tim Ord from the Ord Oracle, and you can reach Tim, folks, at od-or-d-oracle.com. And right now, we're on the second chart, Tim. Yeah, we're on the second chart. And what I'm trying to point out here is the whole thing, you know, again, if it's a 10-day train, we're off a close town to point 20, right now we're at point, yeah, look right to point 0.88. And that could be possibly a very sign-short term, but there's other statistics. I do a little bit of quantitative easing. I don't do it, but I ascribe to another guy who does. And this is pre-election year. Pre-election year, the month of April is up 94% of the time. And also it's January's up, which it was, around 6%. April's up 88% of the time. So if you do the quantitative easing along with some analysis, this month should be an up month, you know, a high 90% percentile. So even though we got a 10-day train close to 0.80, if you notice, once these rallies start, the trends will actually get low and stay low for a while. But ultimately they do lead to big declines, but I'm thinking what's gonna happen, we're gonna see a sign of strength this month, because we've got enough power in the 10-day train over the, since going back to last May to push us higher. If you do the measurements, another should take the previous, or you take the high and low of this train range and you add it onto the breakout area. If you do that, you come up with around 470. Yes. Well, 470 happens to be the January, 2022 high. All right. And I'm thinking that's where we're gonna go. Are we gonna get through that area? Maybe, maybe not, we'll have to wait and see, but if the 100-day and 63-day train is actually, say around below one or something, I say not, we're probably going up there and hit it and probably have a gigantic trading range. But if we go up there and the 10-day or the 100-day train and the 60-day train, to say it's still around 1.1, 1.2 area, I think we've got enough panic in the market for this rally to continue. But you get these big bases here, this base is a long base. It is a long base. It would seem like that's it. Yes, it's a long base, no doubt. And I love, Tim, how you put this together. So what happens, folks, is this, is that when you really look at this market, okay, the bottom line, and this is what to understand in the analysis, it's a large consolidation right now until it's not, I mean, that's the bottom line. Right. Well, the longer it's consolidation, the longer the rally. Yeah, well, interesting. Okay, okay, cool. Yeah, so, yeah, you know, you got what do you call it, you don't cause from white top data, you know, you got longer the cause, longer the rally. Well, you know, you got all, you got, well, you got 11 months of base building here and my opinion, you aren't going to break out to the upside because the 60-day, 100-day and also the 10-day, just that's what's going to happen. And so this rally, you know, if the base is equal to the impulse wave, you know, that wouldn't apply your rally till year-end or later, so I don't know, but. Yeah, it blows some minds, it's perfect. Yeah, it could, and nobody, you know, everybody's, you know, kind of bearish on the market according to the panic. Oh yeah, for sure, I know, yeah. So I'm thinking, because you really surprised a lot of people that this thing starts to rally and it just keeps on going, so, you know. Which we've definitely seen, there's no doubt about that. So let's go to the next shot. Right, the other chart is, this is just a, kind of a big time frame that I showed you, I think the chart last Thursday that showed that we're probably gonna have a rally for another year and a half from March, which will be the, this indicator, I presented last time, we have a buy signal back in March and a previous signal's lasted a year and a half or longer. And then Tim is talking about the gold market now folks. September 2024. Yes. What I'm showing here is, this is the gold chart going back a long ways, look like, what, 1997 or something. Yes. But what I'm pointing out is, we're up against a neckline, what I'm calling a neckline, and to get through that neckline, you're gonna need to sign a strength. Right. And if you look back, there's probably should have outlined it better, but I'm thinking this whole thing's ahead and shoulders bottom. Yeah, no, I can see that. If you're nearing the neckline right now, the point is the market's not gonna get weaker to get through that neckline that has to show a sign of strength. So if anything, the market's gonna actually be going to get stronger coming short term. If you notice last month, the month of March, if you look at that volume chart, because this is a monthly chart, you had a big bump up in volume, showing that some strength is starting to show up. Right. So if we get through that 2000 level, or 2021, you should see a sign of strength to that level, a sign of strength is high volume, wide price move. So I'm thinking this gold market, it's been really difficult to trade over the last several years here, but I'm thinking we're gonna go back to like it was 2000. And actually I was in the gold market back in 1980. Right. And those markets were fairly easy to trade because you were a genius, because everything went up. Exactly. And we love it. You'll be entering another timeframe for that too. No, I don't know. We'll wait and see, but everything's been kind of dead in the gold market, I don't know, 50, but 55% of stocks in the gold market are rallying, which is about half the stocks. So I'm thinking that may turn around, but we do see a sign of strength through that 2100 area, and you break out of this gigantic head and shoulders bottom, I think you're gonna see a lot of energy go to the market. And you know, it's interesting today, Tim. It's been really dead. Yes. And what has happened today, you know, Tim and folks, okay, you know, this dollar index, okay, the bottom line is that, you know, I mean, it's down like 687 ticks, but the low was established at 100.62, and then we had a sign of strength off the bottom. Now it failed to sign of strength today, you know, where four, well, only four ticks underneath it, but it's been a straight line move down. So if this thing blows away, then that means that thing's gonna happen right now. It's gonna be intriguing because the bounce, the last bounce that we had in the dollar, so check this out, the last bounce we had in the dollar, it could only do a, yeah, it did a .382. That was it though, from the highs to the lows. So, you know, it's gonna get intriguing, and hey, it could be right here right now. So, yeah, I love it. I think it's really coming too. You notice that pink bar I drew right there on this chart? Yes. It is a pink shaded area. Yes. Well, you know, that shaded area is, what I have down there is SLS on that volume side. Right. That's a sign of strength. Right. Well, that, there's a little head and shoulders bottom right where that neck line was broken. Can you kind of see it there? Yes, that now from last, from what, two Fridays ago. Now I'm with you. I know, I, yeah, this is gold, so this is different, but no, no, that was, well, that was the same Friday, I think. That was a, that was a monster day, right? Yeah. Well, no, I'm looking at the, Oh, no, I see it now. I see it. I see it. I got it. Yeah, the shaded, pink shaded area. Yes. Well, when it broke through that neckline of that smaller head and shoulders bottom, which is basically the head of this larger head and shoulders bottom, it did have a sign of strength through that neckline. My point is that we're gonna have something similar looking to that pink shaded area that's coming right in front of us. I see. Probably in, you know, in the weeks since that month to come here. So I don't think this, this, this mark is gonna fail here. I think it's gonna push right through that 2000 neckline, 2021 neckline. And in general, head up to the next higher target. So that's what you do. You gotta love it. Well, listen Tim, you have a great week, a safe week. We look forward to speaking in next Thursday. Right, sounds good. Thanks for all your help, man. Really appreciate it. Stay right there folks. We'll come right back.