 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We've got game number two between the heat and the next coming up tonight And also game number one between the Lakers and the Warriors a lot of fun in the NBA playoffs We'll break down both those games for today and take a look at the Wells Fargo Championship by talking to Brandon Goodula getting his read on everything going on across the next couple of days welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire Joined here as mentioned by Brandon Gadoula check him out on Twitter at Gadoula 13 He is a senior managing editor of number fire calm Brandon welcome back to the show. How you doing today? Good good. I had a good weekend with the golf Recommendations. Yeah, you did as good as it can be technically. I mean, you know We're always like someone to win it longer odds than what we had with Tony Fienao But you know what a winner is a winner and it was good value and we talked about the process Why if I hit a plus 850 group at NASCAR? I'm ecstatic So I don't care if they're a favorite or not plus 850 is plus a 50 value is value. You said he should be 7 to 1 Anyone so There you go We'll talk about the full and it wasn't just Fienao to Joseph Bramlett top 10 It was a he was chopped but like, you know Dead heat but like it's still top 10 got a good payout there Wyndham Clark over Gary Wood then we'll go through all of last week's best recommendations and talking about Some draft stuff later on too, but hey, you know Draft had this long-running joke on the show about how you'd come on the show and then the next week You'd recommend a winner, but you've recommended a couple winners in the past month on the show here now So maybe maybe you're getting your timing correct and not recommending the good stuff at the wrong times I'll try to do better with that But yeah, like the weeks that I miss, you know I have someone I recommend and and back who who wins and I'm glad to kind of get a couple of these on Are you talking I'm assuming you're talking WWE draft? No, it's okay. Definitely not I may need to lean on you more for golf though because Ross Chastain cannot wreck a lap car to ruin net golf bets Whereas you can for NASCAR. So it's true But that's a positive. We're talking about those two NBA games first We'll start off there and then dive in to The PGA tour at the Wells Fargo Championship in just one second First a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We're going to have a Kentucky Derby podcast coming up later on I mentioned yesterday There would be up last night, but had some technical issues. So we're gonna cord that maybe today Maybe tomorrow, maybe Thursday who can say it's a busy week We're gonna find a time at some point to record that and talk about the Kentucky Derby and let you know where the value lies There by talking about that Over at Vanduul racing so make sure you're subscribed to get that whatever it may go up Search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating as well Speaking of that the biggest horse race of the year is here And there's no better time to get in on the action on Vanduul racing because right now all customers can get a No sweat derby bet up to $20. That means you get $20 back If your win bet doesn't win or up to $20 when that doesn't win the Fanduul racing app is super easy to use Safe and secure and when you win you get paid fast So don't miss out the Derby is coming up this Saturday Just visit racing dot Fanduul dot com for your chance to get a no sweat derby bet up to $20 on Fanduul racing That's racing dot Fanduul dot com Age and residency restrictions apply offer valid on a first derby win wager refund issued in not a trouble racing site credit that expires on June 12th 2023 restrictions apply see terms at racing dot Fanduul dot com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler let's take it now to these two NBA games for tonight brand and beginning with game number two between the heat in The next right now the Knicks are six and a half point favorites The total here is 206.5 and Jimmy Butler did again in game one But now he's banged up officially listed as questionable with his ankle injury. What's your read on this game here game two between the heat and the Knicks? Yeah, unfortunately Jimmy coming down with the ankle Can't imagine that in any any way shape or form He is a hundred percent for this game, which is someone who does you know modeling stuff It's hard to account for okay. Well, Jimmy might play but be Less efficient. How do you kind of a factor that in I think I saw somewhere that someone said his ankle was the size of a baseball Which ain't great. Which part of the ankle? I don't know Loved on top of like the ankle like I've got a If this is like on top of your ankle, that seems not great. Yeah Visual medium shout out YouTube. I don't know. I can ask my brother like my brother's a physical therapist but I'm more than clueless when it comes to like the Human anatomy and how that would even happen, but unfortunately, I mean obviously for Jimmy. Unfortunately, he's he's not a hundred percent But the Knicks also Listing Julius Randall was questionable Randall of course missed game one, but Jalen Brunson also questionable Uh three ankle entries here really making it hard to break things down For this game a Knicks coach Tom Tibido said on Monday that Julius Randall was doing pretty well Don't know if that's Good news for hit like his ability to play don't know really where Jalen Brunson is gonna wind up I'm assuming Brunson is more likely to play than Randall But I really don't know of course, this is a much bigger deal for for Jimmy baller to miss for the heat their net rating jumps down from a plus three With Butler active and some other controls and they're like the Tyler hero situation down to a minus 4.3. So As I'll get to in a second It's not it's not always the case whenever you take a good player off the floor that a team is but like below average It's just not always the case, but it is the case with with the heat and if anyone's really been watching the heat in the playoffs they they realize like If Jimmy baller's not going this team has some issues the Knicks with him without Randall or a plus five with him and A plus 4.3 without him respectively. So like That's not too bad without both Brunson and Randall. They're still a plus 1.9 which gives them an edge if Jimmy is out. They would be Word a worse team With Jimmy active assuming Jimmy's fully healthy. Then he got a factor in home court all that kind of stuff So I'm really struggling with this one, you know, if this was a full regular season slate I wouldn't even look at this game really. I just I just frankly wouldn't but The thing is in game one the Knicks lost despite a better feel effective field goal percentage 51.7% to 50% which are both not not particularly good there The heat just didn't really turn it over Which helped them like absorb the elevated offensive rebounding rate for the Knicks One of the biggest differences was free throws 23 of 29 for Miami 12 of 20 for New York the Knicks shot just 25% on wide open threes There are four of 16 and the heat 9 of 18 which is 50% but You know that the underlying data for game one says that the seven point game was more like a 2.4 point game Butler's not gonna be 100% even if he plays Randall's, you know on-off impact isn't that huge And so if I can sit here and say like we know Jalen Brunson's going to play which I'm not saying that I don't know but like if he were fine. I'd say I feel good with the Knicks money line I see that I see the path to that I Ran all the different iterations of how this game could wind up based on the health of those three guys and You know, it's basically a Knicks wins so long as they're not without Both of those guys because I don't see how Jimmy but there's 100% and I don't know who's gonna step up In Butler's absence and you know, frankly one thing to think about is The Knicks were not particularly pleased with the officiating seems like they were wanting a lot more calls Again, nine fewer free throws. I think that kind of levels out For game two. So if I had to bet anything I'd go Knicks money line Frankly, I'm fine waiting throughout the day until I get a little bit more Information that could put me behind a ball But I think that that's something that I feel comfortable doing because I don't want to back a team that has No, Jalen Brunson or really is Randall and a non-bed is always better than a bad bet So never a bad thing the Knicks money line right now minus 290. It sounds like you're okay Just passing on that entirely correct. Yeah, I would rather pass on it If I had to bet if I had to recommend anything like I said, I would just go because you can't just say Okay, all these guys are out. It's gonna be an under that's all the counter for cuz the under so low, right? Frankly, these teams are not shooting particularly well, but they could clean the offensive glass get easy put back So, yeah, I would go I would go Knicks if I had to go anywhere But frankly, I'm just I'm more interested in the nightcap for tonight So let's talk about the nightcap right now We've got the Lakers and the Warriors for game number one warriors are four and a half point favorites total here is 228 and the Warriors needed seven games to get past the Kings and Lakers resting up since Friday Is that rest enough to cover a four and a half point spread here? Which has tightened since things open because it was five earlier on Yeah Look the the Warriors are still scary and frankly the Kings Crown them in game seven They made Kevon Looney look like Bill Russell they could not slow down Steph Curry I mean Clay Thompson was off. They didn't really get a whole lot of help. Otherwise. It was basically just It was tough. I'm not saying that the Lakers don't have that Ability to to let the the Warriors come out and get it get off to a great start in the series But they've been playing so well with their core of LeBron James Anthony Davis and D'Angelo Russell Altogether, I know I talk about that. It seems like I talk about the Lakers on every Tuesday Let me do this. I guess that was Wednesday last week. I don't even remember but They're 12 and 3 with all three active their point differential was a plus 10.9 10 and 5 against the spread They're just a different team. So this is something that you know, we're not gonna get into like I Mean we've gotten in in the past is what I mean like with how I model stuff And it's based on active rosters and rotation and health if you look at like long-term data You're gonna have trouble with with With the Lakers and so a lot of long-term models just kind of a lot higher on the Grizzlies than they were on the Lakers But yeah, so for me I'm pretty high on the Lakers right now And it's because I have reason to believe that there as you would say their most relevant sample is that of her really strong Team now the Warriors are 35 and 9 at home in the regular season and playoffs Frankly both had pretty good first-round opponents And if you look at just the data of how they each team played the Lakers played better than the Warriors You alluded to it in the fact that the Warriors went to game 7 The Lakers closing it out earlier than that. So my model for tonight likes this still new look Lakers a good bit. I Loved it at 5. I still love it plus 4 and a half for the Lakers taking the points there and My model also likes the under at 228. These are too Good to great defenses. There's not quite enough pace to overcome it I could really see the Lakers coming out and slowing things down trying to mitigate The offense of the Warriors So I you know, I could also see the Warriors just lighting it up because that's always the case and betting under Against the Warriors is one of the more nerve-wracking things you can choose to do to yourself But for me my favorite place for the night across both games are The Lakers plus four and a half and the under at 228 Now let's talk about the Lakers side here. You mentioned how your model likes the spread of plus four and a half Do you give any consideration towards the money line? It's plus one sixty two right now at Fandall Sportsbook Is that long enough where you're tempted at all or do you want the safety of the points? I'm tempted it is good value Frankly, I have this one close to a pick them. I just don't always I don't really like to go So again, here is the case where I'll talk about this a little bit with the golf model as we talk about golf The model says mathematically Lakers The slightest favorites for me. I see some other models that are similar to that but I'm factoring in the the Warriors trying to build off of a Game 7 rally where they looked untouchable again I Don't love that. So I'd rather just take the points frankly, but I wouldn't fault anyone For for going the route of a Lakers Upset, you know, technically there as their underdogs a Lakers upset in game one I'm just being a little bit more cautious and just taking the points. I took the money line I love it. I will not blame you if it doesn't go well just like again on me You you laid out the pros and cons. So you did your job. I Just took my preferred Playoff basketball is such a combination. That's why I like golf because it's like math but like the eye test and certain different things you can throw in but playoff basketball really feels like You know you can Like you you can like a game and be off by 2030 points of this because like just of how things snowball and it's really tough and things are magnified So I'm just I have flashbacks of classic Warriors to the point that for me right now Just give me the points and and I'll feel better that way But again, I wouldn't fault anyone for the money line. So I think you did the right I think you did a very acceptable thing and again My motto has the Lakers Like favored by point one points that implies value on plus 161 62 Yes, value is value as we discussed last week in the PGA So Brandon likes the Lakers plus four and a half not the money line But then does like the under 228 for that game as well Well, I'm I'm reckless. So anyway, not the 160 200 money line is reckless You know, you bet enough NASCAR you become okay with losing bet. Well, I think to the the maybe a line of distinction here is I Watch a lot more basketball than you do. So I don't want I've had plenty of it on recently but but over the years whenever Steph Curry's out there dropping 50 and No one has any way to like, you know, well, also It helps if you can push off it's been two full days since he last dropped 50 in a playoff game Brandon Like let's not live in the past here. Like come on two full days. It's it's it's ancient history at this point Speaking of value is value. Let's talk now about the PGA tour They are a quail hollow for this week for the Wells Fargo championship And we'll talk about Rory McElroy being a prohibitive favorite for this week in a second But first what should we know about quail hollow before replacing our bets this week? Oh, yeah Long par 71 winning scores historically around 10 under although Rory won I think by seven shots at 21 under a few years back the kind of course where it's a We haven't had like it's a it's a storied course but we haven't had We haven't had this event at this course yearly it's been like up and down so last year the president's cup hosted So no event from last year at this course. It was a TPC Potomac But in 2021 we had it no event in 2020 But in 2019-20 so basically 2018 2019-20 21 are the recent years with with a you know Wells Fargo data for quail hollow so just keep that in mind if you're someone who does like to look back at it that finishes and performance at a particular course, but overall, I mean distance matters pretty typically it's Just kind of like a tough all-around test, which is why the winning scores are around like 10 under Pretty much nothing's easy here. Just makes for like a good all-around setup. We got the designated field You know the thing that I always say is it's somewhat similar to like a major where the fields are really good And the course is not you know, you're not gonna win at 28 under par unless you're You know Rory going even crazier than he did a couple years. I can remember the year, but yeah I think it's a it's a good it's a good week for golf. It's one of my favorite weeks favorite types of week where 10 under can win that makes the The top of the field basically rise to the top And the top of the field is rising in the odds board too because Rory McElroy is seven to one to win over at Fandall Sports Book You mentioned his history here at quail hollow But Rory right now coming off a brief hiatus missed another elevated event after the Masters missed the cut there So there's some shakiness in the form for McElroy, but good quail hollow history Seven to one the market believes in Rory. Do you do you believe enough in Rory to see value at seven to one? I don't know and my model does not either She's got three wins at this course He's a bit overvalued I can see why he shortened from plus 750 to plus 700, but I'm not batting him personally He is long off the tee. We know that it's gonna gain strokes He gains throws off the tee every single week and that's a really gives him a really high floor But the irons hasn't haven't really been up to par for him And the short game itself is never his like true strength, but it's a lot better than most people realize people Really like tend to dog Rory for like the putting and in the chipping and stuff, but he's generally pretty solid there At least relative to what like the Rory haters would think but for me I don't see the value there. I think he's a little bit Too short at I thought he's too short at plus 750. I definitely think he's too short at plus 700 now Okay, so after Rory there is a pretty big drop-off the next one up is Patrick Cantlay 15 to 1 So if we're not Ben Rory, we think he's overvalued. Is there value elsewhere in the outright market this week? Yes, I think it is on that name. You just mentioned with Patrick Cantlay. He's busy still 15 to one Okay Okay, so I have him at 13 to 1 I think he's the best value of the week Cantlay is Basically doing everything really well, but hasn't quite put it all together in the same week he's had a lot of like close finishes to winning and That's exactly what you want to see from a golfer who has just plus stats in every category But hasn't necessarily put it together. It's a good number It's a it's a value, you know, again, I have him at 13 to 1 Really good ball striker and he might not seem like it because he's like slow and kind of Like boring to watch but that doesn't mean he's not like long off the tee and has great iron. So I like him and then Here's the thing that I was kind of alluding to I Still see or at least my model still sees value on Tony Fino at 17 to 1 Slightly but it's there my model and you know, I don't change things to fit certain narratives or anything but doesn't really account for Like a negative impact after after like coming off of a win But then again back-to-back wins are not unheard of he didn't have to like grind out to a win It in Mexico last not like press tour you go after on after like the Masters and stuff like that either just you know It's a win. I saw it on the golf subreddit He was catting for his kids. Yeah, that's I think I think he's probably not not too fried if he's if he's done He probably would do that anyway because he's done Fino But he also won while his family was there with him. So full swing. You'll have to find a new new slant on It's a normal family fight in this land. Yeah But yeah, I think those two are the best values among the top of the board for this week, but I'm also I'm cool with Joe hatton and plus right. He's a 48 to 1 so I'm gonna have to tell you a lot of people think He's a top 10 ball striker in the field over the past 50 rounds according to data golf Tough event and he tends to play better at least from the eye test tends to play better At these tougher setups and I'll also throw in Sahith to gala for kind of the first time ever 50 to 1 he's long off the tee 34th and approach 14th in combined short game Love that fit and he's finally had a number that I think is comfortable. So I was not in on on Sahith Whenever he was getting a lot of buzz. I think that luster starting to wear off a bit and now again, what my model basically does is is Does all of like the objective stuff for me and tells me okay He's he wasn't worth it at like 30 to 1 but now that he's 50 to 1 in this field He is actually, you know worth targeting targeting there. So I'm Gonna keep it relatively short for the outrights With can't lay fee now and then Hatton and the gala are good enough numbers where I can get to them as well Yeah, the gala 50 to 1 Hatton 48 to 1 fee now 17 can't lay 15 And I went to check good old Rhode Island sportsbook to see where can't lay was like oh 15 to 1 a faddle You say 13 to 1 he's 12 here. So I need to move and I'm excited to do that Don't I'm sick of trips to Connecticut in Massachusetts. Let's get on out of here But good value of Patrick can't lay 15 to 1 if you can get that over at faddle sportsbook What about the non-outrights? What do you see in there for this week? I have a top 10 Tom Kim plus 600 Someone who's he was 50 to 1 to win But the top 10 numbers a lot better than that. I don't like him as an outright though That's not like I would Fight anyone who like I wanted to bet him. I'd hope not The the top 10 why fight you on stuff, but that's fair The the top 10 numbers good for him. We know he's a great iron player, but just mathematically that values there And then Kyung Hoon Lee top 20 plus 450 Just a well-balanced golfer doesn't really struggle Anywhere I always like that kind of profile for a course like this So those are the two finishing positions I like and then I don't mind You know, you could throw these in for outrights, but maybe first-round leader Keegan Bradley and Wyndham Clark Back on Wyndham this week after he was lost him for the first couple of days last week long off the tee though But that's the thing like you can't look at that and say, okay, I cannot touch this guy anymore That's not the case. You had a whole year or 50 rounds or whatever sample to get you to last week It was a good course fit Pretty similar course setup this week then last week Accuracy matters a bit more this week, but that's not it's not substantial So if you want some darts those two guys make a lot of sense from a ball striking standpoint to get out To an early lead and frankly, I'm always kind of okay with the long shots That I feel like our values, but I don't see if they're I don't see like Wyndham Clark holding off Rory and can't lay and The stone cold killer now Tony Fee now But you know their their first round leader odds are like a bit longer. Yeah, so it's like May as well just kind of back the The like iteration where they get out to a really hot start right Especially Keegan where we know that like the larger you expand the sample the odds that he torpedoes six off the greens are higher Yeah, so I don't mind those is like his partial units just for something else there I do and I do see why it's like I'm just looking for it just to kind of round things out But yeah, I think we're gonna get one of them one of the sort of favorites to win this week because it's a designated event And that's basically what's been happening. So keep that in mind and don't get don't get too over eager with Like super long shots this week. I'd say the Keegan Bradley first-round leader 60 to 1 Wyndham Clark 85 to 1 cage lead top 20 plus 450 and Tom Kim top 10 6 to 1 as well That is Brandon gondola make sure you check him out on Twitter at gondola 13 back with us later on again today We'll be talking about DFS stuff for the Wells Fargo Brandon. I appreciate the time as always congrats on the Tony Fina win last week We'll talk to you once again in the very near future Looking forward to it. Thanks for having me. Alrighty. That is Brandon gondola find him on Twitter at gondola 13 We'll have him on again. We'll talk more about the DFS side of things later on today on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed But for right now, we got to go back through last week's bets had to change the order of this not do it on Monday because NASCAR caught postpone to Monday So let's recap last week including the NFL draft We were talking draft with Dr. Ed Feng you can find Ed on Twitter at the power rank and Ed Had some close misses here in the draft The one hit was Paris Johnson to be the first offensive lineman taken that was minus 250 That did hit the Cardinals traded back up to six to taking we talked about Johnson the Cardinals specifically on the show last week Didn't bet that but he was minus 250 for first offensive lineman and that one did work The close miss for Ed was Dalton Kincaid had had him under 24 and a half at minus 122 But then the bills took him 25th overall So the over hit there couldn't quite get that one key Kincaid was the first tight end taken which we had discussed But it was not recommended not good enough value to bite there But hopefully he took the bait anyway couldn't quite get that one on Kincaid Ed had the Raiders taking a corner with their first pick at plus 175 There was a rumor from Peter King believe it Peter King saying that they were trying to trade up In that first round didn't trade up. They got a Tyree Tyree Wilson at seventh overall Devon weather witherspoon went fifth overall plus 175 Maybe that was their trade up target, but couldn't quite get there So that one did not hit as Wilson is a an edge player final one was Over four and a half quarterbacks in the first round is plus 144 would had recommended it It eventually got to plus 158 on the other side So you could have taken plus 144 over plus 158 under Hopefully did hedge we saw during the day on Thursday. Maybe it was Wednesday Thursday or Wednesday Where that number slid the other way so you got? Cov if you were able to hedge but if you actually look at it what it was when the draft started I believe it had gotten all the way back out there where the Over was pretty similar to what it was and we had talked about it because there was a lot of Decreasing hooker buzz will let this obvious amount of slipping. So hopefully you hedged we did talk about it But Ed said didn't want to so some close calls there We'll talk about the NFL draft with Ed we recap on Thursday We'll talk about the UEFA Champions League semi-finals as well We'll get back on here to close up thoughts on the draft And then find Ed on Twitter at the power rink and check out his work at the power rank calm Hopefully you were able to win some of that back with the Mexico open as discussed with Brandon good week there He's on Twitter. I could do a 13. He said he liked Tony Fina to win a plus 850 His numbers had Fina at 7 to 1 and Fina did win over John Robb So plus 850 winner there other outrides for Brandon were Luke List and Alex Smalley both at 65 to 1 Brandon also did hit a top 10 in a matchup. The top 10 is Joseph Bramlett's recommended a plus 410 It was in a tie for 10th. So Didn't get the plus full plus 410 the full plus 410 because of dead heat rules, but that did cash Matchup that was Wyndham Clark over Gary Woodland of minus 134 Clark finished 24th woodland 39th So good calls there by Brandon other top 10 that didn't hit was Lee Hodges 5 to 1 But overall great great week again by Brandon on his stuff Follow him on Twitter at can do a lot 13 and find his PGA sims over at number fire comm our EPL Guest was Austin Kass you can find him on Twitter at Austin Kass Another really nice week for Austin in the Brentford match Austin had Brentford to win a minus 155 and Yvonne Tony to score a goal a plus 110 Brentford was down 1 nil in the 80th minute But then our guy Yvonne Tony scored a tie things up at 1 1 Then Brentford scored again I believe in the 94th minutes when stoppage time to get the win So the minus 155 moneyline cashed the Tony goal cashed good call by Austin on both those Other Saturday bet was Brighton over one-half goals and minus 178 they won six nothing So cash that as well at minus 178 the loan miss for Austin was Alexander Esak to score at minus 105 Newcastle did score three goals, but Esauk was not one of them So all in all another awesome week for Austin find him on Twitter at Austin Kass and find his EPL betting guides over at Number fire comm Finally for NASCAR. I had a very annoying week. It was great very annoying an extended I had a Derek Krause a plus 600 for a top five Raleigh Herbst at plus 275 Herbst never super competitive Krause got caught speeding up it road I don't think you would have been top five anyway But kind of put the nail in the coffin there not ideal on the XINITY side of things and the cup series I had Kyle Larson to win at five to one Kevin Harvick top 10 at minus 160 and Brad keselowski top 10 at plus 140 Larson I think at the best car, but he got wrecked Ross Chastain has mentioned wrecked a lap car They spun Larson hit them He was super fast. He had worked his way up from 18th He was running second or third at that time when the crash or third I guess in the crash occurred I felt great about that bet at five to one Pretty big bummer to miss out on that one Harvick had a tire go down at the end of a stage lost a lap Never got it back. He finished poorly He was running like fifth or sixth or so before that tire issues. That was annoying Brad keselowski did cash or plus 140 He finished eighth. He had a pit road penalty, but still came back to win or not win finished top top 10 I had an outright on keselowski to thought he might have a chance in that last three star Because he had four fresh tires was others did not but he had pretty bad restart the entire day So couldn't quite get the outright, but the only recommendation here for the show was the top 10 at plus 140 So annoying week for me and NASCAR, but luckily Brandon able Brandon Austin able to help me win back some of that via the EPL and the golf recommendations That's all that we have here for today on Covering the spread as mentioned three more shows coming up this week got the Kentucky Derby We're gonna have Christina black or a fandal TV on to preview that depending on when schedules a lot Love edit on to talk about some UCL stuff. We'll talk some MLB some NASCAR some EPL coming up on Friday. All that is available on the covering the spread podcast feed So search for that wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating as well big Thank you once again to Brandon. Good. Do let's check about on Twitter at Gadoula 13 find his work over at numberfire.com. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I am S a and and yes want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your bets across the NBA for tonight. We'll talk to you once again in the very near future Talks in Kentucky Derby This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network