 Good afternoon and welcome to this press conference from the 48th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum here in Davos Thank you for joining us here in the room. Thank you for watching the live stream joining us there This press conference is dedicated to the humanitarian crisis that will shape 2018 I'm joined by my immediate left by Peter Maurer who's the president of the International Committee of the Red Cross ICRC and Two is left by Heba Ali who's the director of Irene news and we will be shortly joined on the panel by Sara Pantoliano She's the managing director of the overseas development Institute She's making her way right now from the Congress Center through the snow to be with us So thank you for your patient as I said she'll join us in a second, but without further ado Um Let's start the human and tearing crisis that will shape 2018 In the preparation in the conversations we had for this press conference I learned that the basically the crisis that we've seen with the Rohingyas could have been prevented to a certain extent At least it was not a complete surprise Is what I learned which surprised me in turn because when you read the news as a normal reader as a normal Audience you might not have been familiar with that situation What are the what are the major crisis that your organization is? Preparing for to deal with in 2018 Well, good question. It allows me maybe To start and say if the crisis of the Rohingyas could have been Prevented it's a little bit preposterous To say that it could have been prevented at a certain moment We are concerned with a lot of fragile context which have the potential to unfold Into full-fledged conflict, but you rarely know when the degradation and the spiral will happen and so my first point here this afternoon is a little bit that Let's not fool ourselves as a humanitarian Organization we have to be prepared to crises erupting wherever they erupt and to respond quickly to those crises and in many of the places where we see Fragile contexts At the brink of war and violence and disruption This goes from southern Philippines to Myanmar to Afghanistan to the Middle East to large parts of Africa We see fragile context, but we don't know which one will eventually blow up in our face A lot depends also as everybody knows success breeds success and failure breeds failures Successful negotiations around one of the conflict can suddenly Take a conflict away from primary humanitarian concern and move it to more long-term peace building and developmental concern while Failure to do so may further escalate in a surprising way some of the conflict So I'm not here to tell you what happens tomorrow what Maybe three or four recurring issues from the frontline of conflicts which will Certainly shape 2018. I wanted to mention them first You have seen as talk a lot in the context of Syria in the context of Yemen in the context of Ukraine about urban warfare and War and violence moving into cities This will continue this trend is most likely to continue and will challenges as you maintenance in terms of Reconstruction and Educating urban environments, which is of a particular challenge because in urban environments with little impact you have big effect in the positive and in the negative if you Manage to re-establish the water distribution system in Tai East Yemen. You touch one million people. That's big If you bomb the water distribution system in Tai East you touch a million people So we are focusing particularly in some of those grave conflicts in 2018 on Rehabilitating and stabilizing urban situations either in trying to prevent further escalation of violence or to cope with some effects of violence second I'm just back from Sudan and Central African Republic where I spent the first two weeks ten days of the year and It is obvious from and speaking here in Davos That one of the big issue for Humanitarians is to encourage those who are not classical Humanitarians to come on board and to step up to the plate in terms of finance and support for other than Humanitarian activities. Let me be clear When I look at some of the camps of displaced people from Darfur to South Cordeaux Farn to Central African Republic there is a potential of People helping themselves Women Rallying other women to self-help groups. It's about Refugees starting on businesses But in all of that what they try to do and what they do there are very often left alone And I think one of the big issue is how can we encourage ask demand from the wealthy Business community worldwide to embrace and to support Business activities by vulnerable displaced people and this will fundamentally change the way we do Humanitarian work and I have continuously thought this is a place where we need to work together With the business community because we have insights and intelligence Into the drivers of fragile communities and the business community has the money the skills and the knowledge to support business activities of Fragile people and I think this is has a huge potential and if we manage to accelerate and to grow this area of work This is important thirdly. I'm here also in divorce because I'm deeply convinced that We are confronted in 2018 more than ever with a big gap between Needs of people and the capacity of the international system as a whole to respond and this gap can only be bridged by more and better finance and more and better finance means that We need to discuss with the specialists In the financial industries in the private sector in the humanitarian sector about how we can find new tools new Instruments in order to more generously finance Humanitarian operations, this is about How to learn from our what we tried to do from humanitarian impact bond impact investment? It's about finding new cash solutions for problems. It's about advanced market finance. It's about new credits New credit facilities blended finance We have a panoply of tools at the present moment available And if I see correctly the funding gap in 2018 will become bigger It will become more important and it needs to be addressed by a multiplicity of Responses as we are as we see them now emerging from the discussions here in Davos Fourth point, let me just draw the attention of all of you of What we call at the ICRC forgotten conflicts and forgotten people? I'm concerned at the present moment to look in 2018's and to see that the dynamic of high visibility conflicts with high investment of humanitarian assistance is sucking money away From low visibility conflict and big needs of people and and I think we all know what we mean We have high visibility conflicts Syria is high visibility it's at the crossroads of strategic interests of powers and a lot of money is made available to address the Syrian crisis, but much less is Addressed to some of the fragile context in Africa in the Sahel in the Lake Chaltesan in the Great Lakes basin in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. These are Potential big conflict areas big needs areas and there is no question when I visit those places that needs objectively People are bigger in those places than in many others So it is important an important challenge for 2018 to draw the attention of The donor community of the international community to the potential of escalating violence and warfare and needs in low visibility conflict with big needs and the last point is that As we are speaking here in Davos, of course We are still looking into how best to Do and to use digital capacities to do good. I think Digitalization of the economy has multiple facets. I don't go into that, but there is a huge potential in Fostering digital technologies and digital tools in order to do better and more targeted humanitarian assistance Not everything works. Not everything is is is working But we need to scale up our capacity this goes into cash transfers. It goes into new digital platforms which allows us better analytics of needs which goes into data analytics which goes into the whole discussion on how we organize the protection of data with the Sharing of datas. I think in terms of delivering good humanitarianism in 2018 This will be a critical issue. I'll stop it here. Thank you very much. Thank you and Sarah welcome And thank you for joining. I'll let you catch your breath for another moment and we'll turn to to you first Heba As a director of your news, I'll be a little bit unfair now to you Because obviously you are focused on humanitarian issues and you are covering them But Peter Amour mentioned the importance of forgotten conflict and visibility What are the mechanisms that turn your media colleagues to cover an event and what do you think will the the big Media stories be in that field in 2018 if you will Yeah, for those of you who don't know Erin We're a new service that is dedicated solely to covering humanitarian crises from the field and I think we are freed from some of the Restraints or pitfalls that other media face because we're a nonprofit news organization because we're independent Because we don't have that commercial driver And so that allows us to pursue some of the stories that other media may want to but but cannot In at least the same level of depth or breadth and I think Because of the budget cuts we've seen in the media industry over the last few decades Many as you know media organizations have had to cut foreign bureaus and thus Prioritize coverage of crises to those that as Peter mentioned are more geopolitically relevant are of strategic interest to particular countries Where the story behind the car the crisis is more compelling plays better on TV where the victims are people that we can relate to or The destinations popular tourist locations So I think there's a lot of factors that play into whether a coverage gets more Christ Sorry crisis gets more coverage We're not and and one of them frankly is access of the media particularly in the landscape where You know crises are getting more complex more actors involved and even aid workers are Struggling to reach the people in need let alone journalists coming from the outside I think what allows us to be a bit different is our model is one based on a network of Local correspondents on the ground. We're not parachuting people into crises But where they are before a crisis even begins and that gives us a certain vantage point to be able to foresee Into the future and I think maybe just to pick up on what? Peter questioned off of the top about whether the Rohingya crisis was predictable. We've been raising an alarm about the Rohingya since 2008 when tensions really began in Myanmar and since then repeatedly we've been saying there are issues here that will get worse and worse if not addressed and now Everyone knows where we stand today. So it's not to say that of course an aid worker Is faced with a number of different crises around the world and it's hard to prioritize with limited resources But it is to say that many of the crises that we see today begin as human rights crises as Tensions and the warning signs are clear. I think often At least for us on the ground. We're seeing this and we're communicating it Early warning exists early action doesn't always follow for a number of reasons and so from our vantage point I think 2018 looks quite grim for a few reasons The impact of climate change I think is becoming much more tangible and we're seeing that particularly for small island states Last year in the Pacific and in the Caribbean The global refugee crisis is entering a new and I think much more challenging phase when we talk about long-term solutions and options for integration and As the scale and complexity of crises grow the financing as Peter mentioned Available to respond to them, but more importantly the political will that exists particularly today is certainly in question let alone the fact that we're seeing an increase in breaches of the rules of war that mean that this is only likely to increase over the coming year so I suppose apart from the the big stories that You're all following closely the ones that keep us up at night are the Barundis of the world are the Central African Republics of the world are the South Sudan's of the world and I wanted to zero in on the Democratic Republic of Congo in particular because I think that's one where a 2018 is likely to Be a moment in which it explodes even further than it already has Over the last year it has been slipping further and further into humanitarian catastrophe You have a situation where not only are we seeing new waves of violence in Resistance to President Joseph Kabila's refusal to step down, but we have long-standing Intercommunal tensions you have food insecurity you have the world's largest displacement crisis And you have increasing Cutbacks on the money available for the humanitarian response, but also for the peacekeeping Mission in line with some of the cuts that the United States has made recently so it's really a combination of quite a catastrophic set of factors and our investigative unit recently uncovered a new wave of Campaign of rape by Army soldiers against villagers in Areas where they are fighting rebels and we've heard really brutal stories of women being gang raped 65-year-old blind woman gang raped to death So really horrendous stuff that looks likely to increase over the coming years So that's one that we're certainly watching but one of many every year we produce a An outlook on crises in the year ahead which you can find on our website that lists the top 10 that we're watching as well as a map of The number of conflicts under way around the world today and we're talking about more than 40 So to put things in perspective the Syria's and Myanmar's of the world are are just two of many many other crises That are brewing away under the surface and I'll just close by mentioning that tomorrow evening We will be hosting an event both Iran and ODI with the UN under secretary general for humanitarian affairs So for those of you who are looking for more detail on the humanitarian outlook in 2018 You're welcome to join us and I'll have details here afterwards Thank you very much Sarah I introduced you earlier as the managing director of the overseas development Institute ODI for those of you watching who are not Familiar with that organization. It's the leading think tank on humanitarian issues. So clearly You are looking at these at these topics as well. What are the potential crisis? I say for 2018 that keep you up at night Thanks Well, I follow from eBay and you know a lot of the crisis are in a way predictable You know, you can see the same mixture of of issues the surface that contributes to you know Turn the situation into a humanitarian crisis and it's usually a combination of human rights abuse, you know violation of human rights Economic deterioration if not collapse and societal fractures and if I look at a number of countries out there I think there are two or three that you know Really seriously concern me worry me. They have the potential to escalate, you know full-blown Blown crisis. I hope it doesn't happen, but the science are there. The first of course is Venezuela For anybody who is monitoring things in Venezuela. We're very very close to really calling it a full-blown Humanitarian crisis what we're seeing is you know a tremendous concentration of power an increasing concentration of power in the hands of You know the the Maduro administration, but with that, you know an increasing Quite heavy-handed Action against the opposition. We see arbitrary arrests. We see prosecutions. We see abuses reported You know from security forces is our things the human rights watch and others have documented But also what we see in the streets is you know severe shortage of medicines We see an economic collapse of the country we see people, you know the sort of queuing for food we've seen 236,000 People from Venezuela crossing into Ecuador, you know people have done that because they're desperate and what they cite as You know the principal reason for the crossing is lack of access to medical care and political prosecution so 15,000 people have you know sought asylum or just in the last few months These are very worrying signs and you know it's something that I think we need to watch really careful carefully because the potential to escalate into full Humanitarian crisis is really really clear Another country that keeps you awake at night is Mozambique. We see some of the same Somewhat similar situation with well of course increasing tensions between the government and renamo the Mozambican national resistance group that is now a political party, but obviously was an opponent during the war in Mozambique But we see you know abuses serious abuses against civilians both from you know government forces allegedly and as well as Renamo some many executions forced disappearances sexual violence But at the same time we see a Phenomenally fast economic deterioration, you know if you look at what's happened You know somebody has called it the perfect storm that you know the country suffered in 2016 combination of you know unfavorable fluctuations in exchange rates runaway inflation 25% And inability to repay that particularly as a result of you know gas prices Plummeting and if you put these all together you see in a really fast economic deterioration of the country and also other challenges, you know Climatic related challenges are also sort of impacting on the country So we're seeing you know rising temperatures and less predictable rains increase risk of flooding that are all contributing to create Unfortunately, but the perfect conditions for a humanitarian crisis and last but the least doesn't end here There are many other countries that worry me, but I think those are the top three is is El Salvador Where again, you know, we already see a Country that is one of the most violent in the world's where you know the level the levels of homicides They're so high that make it one of the the deadliest places on On earth, but we see an increasing number of people trying to run away You know, we've seen 90,000 people just in In the last few months leaving in a running fleeing in El Salvador and at the same time Obviously people being repatriated from the US at an increasing pace many of which actually, you know Are deep repatriated because of engagement in you know in crime or in petty crimes more recently Of course not but you know that is compounding the challenges that the country is already, you know facing and And having to deal with and closer to home Bosnia, but I want to elaborate that on that But that's definitely another one that we should be, you know sort of more Concerned about These are all preventable crisis, you know, these are all signs that we can recognize Country after country that you know, these are all Related to political problems that need early attention early investment early action and actually, you know early investment in Diplomacy, you know in trying to diffuse some of these tensions early investment in trying to mitigate some of the economic challenges that these countries are Are facing and I would say, you know, since this is the forum There's a role for businesses as well in trying and stabilize these situations before they become, you know Incredibly wicked humanitarian problems They can so what's what's your message to the to the CEOs here in Davos the businesses really have a critical role to play They can facilitate political dialogue. They can, you know help invest in situations Well, actually do require, you know, the engagement of businesses to bring up the economy to, you know make wage disparities less critical to to really Stabilize the economic situation, but actually, you know, big businesses that power in terms of the political Dialogue that they can also bring to these places Thank you, Sarah. And let me pick up on something Before we open the floor for question that that you mentioned I'd like to put that question to the three of you you all paint Obviously very grim picture and I understand access is becoming more of a problem. The nature of warfare is changing There's more and more crisis popping up. They're escalating. It's not just political issues. It's climate change How optimistic are you that we can even get to to a mode of operation where we where we focus on prevention and Are able to to do more than just putting out fire and prevent these conflicts from happening Sarah if you want to yeah, I'm happy to start because actually I think we have an incredible champion in the secretary general of the UN Is really trying to put prevention at the heart of his agenda and is has been trying to rally support You know both from member states and from, you know, his peers in the UN and really making sure that The UN family and its partners for a start, you know bring more attention to these issues There is an innate in a reluctance though to do that particularly when human rights issues are involved countries don't like to discuss that You know, you and organizations in countries and as well as others don't like to raise these issues because you know, you can lead to unsavory consequences But it is you know that leadership that is required is the leadership to you know ensure that we really take prevention seriously and in a way In a way engage, you know, it doesn't have to be public It doesn't have to be you know denunciation But we have the private demarches that you know the ICRC is very well known for that can Encourage countries to see that it is in their interest to diffuse crisis in teasing their interest to act early So that the situation doesn't escalate and does and you know end up in a full-blown humanitarian crisis You want to react to that just from the media perspective. I suppose I'd add that Despite the very diffused information landscape in which we exist today There is research that shows that decision-makers are still very influenced by mainstream media coverage and the extent to which it is difficult to Prioritize within media organizations coverage of crises that are not yet full-blown crises that has a spillover effect on the degree to which politicians pay attention and That more generally people are mobilized around an issue So I think there is a responsibility on us as media as well to be going beyond or bringing some of these other crises up Onto the radar so that we we can create that kind of spillover effect that leads to the kind of prevention You're talking about but then I'll add As I said off the top that often even when there is early warning There isn't always early action and I think bridging that gap in terms of one when we are Putting out the red flags that that there's an international system that is set up to be able to respond to them Is an important gap that I think Hopefully is now currently being looked at From our point of view. I'm quite optimistic About two or three things with that we are observing in the areas of operation first We just started a couple of months ago a major project in looking at Where do we find positive example of respect for international humanitarian law? And actually if we don't look only at violations, but a positive example, we find a lot of those positive examples So it's also about are we able to accelerate and scale those positive examples to learn from positive examples? And I think there is at least a potential that international humanitarian law if we look at it as a guiding principle for a lot of actors in Some of the difficult situations has much more positive potential than we usually would think second I'm always impressed by the resilience of community and by their capacity to help themselves Even in the worst of situations and I think we should not put All our eggs of course it needs international support, but it's my positive appreciation also comes From all the thousands of examples where people have an ability to help themselves to organize themselves Afterwards they need more support But it's not that there is nothing and we are waiting for the crisis which comes There is a lot positive energy in some of the war-torn and conflict-torn Society and it needs support and I think it is important to shift a little bit The perspective and my third point is that when again, I agree with my two colleagues beforehand, I think prevention is important and in prevention Talking to influencers is important. We just started and read Did a new reassessment on what influences? behaviors of actors in conflict and what we see is sometimes surprising a good identification of good influencers can do a lot because we suspect influencers where they are not and There are none when we where we think they are Important sorry, I let all my glasses about this What I find very interesting is that influencers of behavior positive behavior in Tensions societies is not hierarchical influence But it's very often community-based influence is Religious leaders its community leaders its traditional leaders and I think one of the most powerful Hope injecting element that we find in war-torn society violence Torn society is to build on those influencers and to find way to change behavior And there there are interesting and positive examples. There are those hospitals which are not attacked And I think it is important to ask why and to build on this experience. There are those Civilian neighborhoods, which are not bombed Why how? Where can we put the triggers and these are all important elements of hope? Thank you very much Let's open the floor for question. I've seen mr. Otter from the German news agency raises hand if you can pass the microphone Thank you Hello, thank you a question to miss Pantoliano. Can you just say one or two sentences about why you're worried about Bosnia? Are we taking a few? Yeah, I think it comes from what actually from a personal Experience I I visited Bosnia a couple of years ago I spent quite a bit of time with friends who live in Bosnia but in in the Serbian part of of Bosnia and and just the discussions and nights made me very Uncomfortable around the level of animosity and tension. They still is very palpable in those communities and clearly you know the recent events with the celebration of The the ninth of January holiday that commemorates, you know the date in which Bosnia terms Declared the creation of the Serbian Republic Which in theory is not allowed, but clearly continues to be celebrated in the defiance You know that as a company that it's a it's a sign of things have been brewing for a long time It's not a recent event, you know, it builds on tensions that are very deep and palpable if you know You travel through Bosnia. Thank you. Do we have any other questions? Can I get a show of hands? Yes, there's a gentleman in the middle if you could state your name and organization, please Ishaan the ruler of the Washington post If I could just ask the typical annoying American question How does The existence of an administration in Washington that at least from the executive Has not shown much sympathy towards the humanitarian plights elsewhere is working towards cutting funding to various Major institutions that that reckon with these humanitarian challenges What kind of message do you have for the Trump administration and for the president as he comes to Davos this week? Thank you very much Who wants to take on that question? The people well, I mean first and foremost, I think the key message is that Humanitarian work is intrinsically stabilizing societies and and this is in the interest not only of the United States, but of much more relatively stable countries today in order to to continue Supporting these areas, and I think there is a lot of proof in that Frontline humanitarian work close to people close to front lines close to violence is a biggest one of the biggest stabilizers of Societies Most of the displacement happens in countries where there is war most of the needs are happening in those countries The second largest tier of needs is in the neighboring countries of conflict countries. So there is a a whole Sort of case to make towards a political agenda in the United States that this is the most Powerful and most effective stabilizing effect. My second point is to be very frank that with regard to ICRC the United States continued to generously fund our activity this year, and we hope that this will continue and In in the course of 2018 because I think we made a case all of us here on the podium That problems will not be less, but rather more Do you want to add to that? Okay, so we'll we'll wait for the speech by the president on Friday and hope he he covers humanitarian issues there Do we have any other questions in the room? The journalist was waiting for our speech to the president well I'm not stopping you Do we have any other questions there is there is an important point I think that domestically there is a lot of support for For You know the role that u.s. Has traditionally played in responding to humanitarian crisis perhaps it is less you know public support also from you know the supporters of You know that if you want that the base then the president's the president enjoys for you know more kind of Long-term development aid, but you know American people are very proud of their record in You know solidarity and support in humanitarian crisis So whilst obviously you know there are challenges to some of the funding that the u.s. Continues to provide internationally I think this you know humanitarian response is probably one of those that we will see less challenged in this respect because they I think the president himself attaches importance to that that said we have actually done some analysis on the impact of U.s. Funding cuts and some of the big UN agencies like the World Food Program like The UN refugee agency where significant portions of their funding and up to 25 percent come from the u.s. Government could then face very serious limitations on the work that they're able to do and our our Reporting had found that in 2017 there was less of an impact because that budget had been more or less protected But that we could start to see the implications of that in 2018 moving forward and we've already seen on the peacekeeping side some of that So I think as you said in the past humanitarian aid has had about bipartisan support from the u.s. But it's I can tell you that there are a lot of aid agencies that are very very worried about this Thank you very much in a very unsuice way. We started late. We're ending late Sorry about that for running over time a little bit But I think this discussion deserves the room and space given here today. Thank you very much to my panelists and thank you for being here Thank you