 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang Welcome everybody into Covering the spread here on the fan duel podcast network and number fire dot-com. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for it number fire joined here by Ed Fang of the power rank dot-com Ed It's college football week. Hi here on covering the spread. We're talking highs and betting later with Edward E. Gross and we're gonna talk with you about your college football numbers later on so I'm pumped. I'm feeling the fall rushing through my veins How are you doing today? I'm doing great. I'm pumped to call it talk about college football. I feel like Sometimes, you know it it falls a little bit behind the NFL in terms of coverage and so I'm glad we're giving it It's do I've tried to give some college football points in the in the past couple shows And so I'm just excited to talk about it. Yeah for me I feel like college football is more of a release because a lot of my like day-to-day work during the fall revolves around the NFL Whereas like college I can just kind of enjoyed a bit more sure and I think that because of that I tend to romanticize it a bit more than I do football and I agree that it's probably not as Universal as it probably should be because like waking up on a Saturday morning turning on a college football game and just doing nothing for a day is Honestly, one of the most appealing activities in the entire world Well, and hopefully we won't make your Saturday too stressful by putting too many bets down, but right? We'll see what happens when we get there in September. Hopefully the process is good enough We don't just want it too much and we can just sit back and relax again follow Ed on Twitter at the power rank I am at Jim Sonnis and big. Thank you to everyone who left a rating review on the podcast last week Great response by all of you still plenty of time to subscribe Rate and review the podcast and it does help us a ton We get those ratings and reviews up on Apple podcast So please go to Apple podcast search for covering the spread leave a review if you like what Edward says later on today Or if you listen to Evan Silva last week or whale capper what they thought leave a review rate the podcast That does help us out so so so much as mentioned Evan Silva was on with us last week talk NFL win Totals why he likes the Ravens this year check that out and some other thoughts on 2019 we also talked to whale capper about NBA championship futures You can find all those by going to covering the spread on Spotify Apple podcast SoundCloud and Stitcher and subscribe to get each podcast as it is posted as mentioned later today And we need grass coming up But on Thursday we'll talk with Ed about his college football numbers to see what they say for 2019 and we got a little taste of the the college football numbers I'm pretty excited to dig in a little bit more with you and talk about you know some various conferences of note for 2019 Maybe we'll get some some Stanford and some Northwestern talk in there as well Sounds good and coming up to date in just one second here on covering this present We're gonna talk with Edward e-gross about Heisman boating follow Ed on Twitter at Ed with sports Edward appears on TV G's more ways to win part of Fanduel as well. You can also find him at Fox Sports Southwest He is the host of the Rangers deep cuts podcast That's on Volca Media and has a Cowboys podcast coming up just around the corner at that same spot So if you follow Ed on Edward on Twitter at Ed with sports You can find all that and the reason why I'm on talk analytics is because he is an adjunct Professor at Southern Methodist University teaches a class on sports analytics there So who better to teach us about sports analytics and what they mean for Heisman betting that's coming up in just one second Here's Edward e-gross of Fox Sports Southwest Covering the present Well, it's welcome to the show Edward e-gross and Edward actually met you at the Sloan analytics conference a couple of years ago And at that same conference is where I met Ed Fang So kind of a little bit of a reunion here of the people who have met at some point at the Sloan analytics conference So Edward welcome to covering the spread. How are you doing today? I'm doing very well doing very well We all need to get back to Boston at some point soon. Don't we absolutely? I would be 100% down to do that and hopefully we could talk some sports betting while we're there, too Now that's spreading the globe and definitely gaining some traction I think that it would definitely apply to a lot of the analytics conversations out there Have you been to Sloan the past couple of years and has sports betting been part of the conversation at Sloan when you've been there? You know, I haven't been the last couple of years and that's sort of in large part because I've been going to other conferences Whether it's the New England Sports Conference up at Harvard Whether it's been many analytics up in Minneapolis when Minneapolis hosted Super Bowl 52. I've tried to get some things going closer to Texas and Sports betting really hasn't been discussed too much It's sort of been on the ancillary, but it's it's funny like if there's one thing that say Analytics sports and conventional sports have in common that sports betting has always been part of the conversation But it's always been sort of on the outskirts and I think only recently Have things sort of been brought into the fold and that that's exciting in so many ways because I think it carries the conversation forward in ways That we otherwise haven't been able to and it's definitely applicable to yeah I've been at Sloan the last couple years and The actual sports betting conference is not particularly enlightening when you guys show up next year We'll go out to degenerates and you'll get plenty of information there and we can go from there Awesome. I'm looking forward to that for sure now Edward. We're talking about Heisman betting for today You've been talking plenty of college football and more ways to win on TVG So we got to get your thoughts here on some college football stuff for 2019 specifically focusing on the Heisman I think that it's best to start here from a philosophical perspective when you look at Heisman betting in General based on your process. Is it better to go with the favorites? You know like Trevor Lawrence and to a tongue of eye lower for this year or Are we should we bank on long shots in general to win the Heisman? I? Prefer going after long shots for a variety of reasons number one Favorites in the preseason almost never win. I'm looking at Heisman winners right now dating back to 2009 and the only one who was a preseason favor who won was Marcus Mariota He was a plus 425 a few years back It was a three-star recruit really blossomed in Oregon, but for the most part these guys You know they weren't that highly ranked in the preseason Baker Mayfield was third highest Other than that you've got a lot of guys who are 11 13th. A lot of them weren't even on Preseason rankings you couldn't bet on them at all and even when their number did come up say in week three week four they were still a long shot and so to me you have this sort of a dangerous situation when it comes to preseason Heisman odds Where perhaps a favorite isn't even listed at this point and those who are listed? Yeah, you have two favorites at this point, but there are so many things that can happen And I think there's also this element of surprise where I think a lot of Heisman voters like somebody who has quote-unquote come out of nowhere To win the whole thing Right. So Edward. So what's the general archetype of player that tends to win the Heisman in terms of position and conference? Team strength winning. What's what's the general type of player? Absolutely. So when it comes to position over the years 41 running backs of one 35 quarterbacks of one And then you have eight others. So you pretty much have to be a running back or a quarterback To win this award and even the others And some who almost became one of the others like Tyred Matthew the honey badger dell issue He was returning punts as well So you almost have to have a job Diversification if you're not going to be a quarterback or running back to really have a legitimate shot of winning the Heisman But not since 1997 as a quarterback or running back won the award 40 different schools have won 18 have multiple awards one of the things about college football that is Probably why the sport does so well, but also why it can be a little bit frustrating is because it's pretty much the same programs That when the national championship go to the playoff and then also when the Heisman as well You really don't see too many schools sort of come out of nowhere to capture the Heisman trophy or capture a playoff spot Certainly, there are exceptions to that Robert Griffin the third out of Baylor Certainly Baylor is you know, not known necessarily for producing great quarterbacks, but this one is since they did I look at it as A situation where you're looking for tradition. You're looking for those big names, but then also to sometimes you're looking for schools that produce Certain types of players and sometimes those players get highly recognized So for instance, Wisconsin is known as a running back you and so they're running backs tend to do very well When it comes to Heisman boats Alabama has two Heisman winners both of them are running backs Texas has produced some running backs that have won Heismans other programs like Oklahoma Ohio State They tend to be quarterbacks and so I think you have the combination of tradition But then also the position that that school normally produces and is successful with I think those things are important too So certainly we have like an archetype here, you know We want players at impactful positions on impactful programs But there are some guys who have semi-short odds for this year who may not necessarily fit that archetype You know, they may not be from the biggest schools They may not be from a power five conference even how willing are you to bet someone who doesn't fit into those buckets? You just discussed For this year. I am very very willing to bet on Something that doesn't belong in these buckets and one guy in particular who I think fits this absolutely perfectly is Derek King the quarterback at Houston He finished fourth in total QBR seventh and passing efficiency last season now George is Jake from Slightly ahead of him, but King now as Dana Holgersen as his head coach and he helped will Greer develop at West Virginia So I think there's actually more room for growth for King and especially given from is at plus 2000 King of plus 3000 Somebody in a non-power five conference and granted Houston has won the Heisman trophy before but that was back before You know all of us were born I suppose I think but regardless It's something where yeah, you have somebody who is capable of being groomed being developed even more that he already has He's got a new head coach who has done well with quarterbacks in the past Derek King makes a lot of sense to me as somebody who could come out of nowhere and sees this whole thing Well, I think the one thing working in his favor, too is that there will be attention on that program because Dana Holgersen is there as you mentioned and That's a positive for him from a notoriety perspective, but also he was really good last year You look at his passing numbers ignore the rushing and the rushing is stupid You know the numbers he put up as a rusher The passing was really good from an efficiency perspective too And that's why I think that Derek King is is super intriguing and if it weren't for that knee injury last year Maybe we'd be even more into him for this year Is he kind of the first guy who stands out to you as being someone who is an attractive bet? He's plus he's 31 right now a fan of sportsbook and I was gonna ask you about him. Honestly, so I'm glad you brought him up But is he kind of the first guy who stands out to you? Great minds think alike that this is the last podcast episode It's all about it's all about college football DFS because he is a god there Absolutely and and one thing I would add to is if he does become a finalist I do believe Tom Herman should get an invitation To sit close to the front of the room and that's a large part because of exactly what you just talked about We know about the Houston football program whereas there are a lot of other You know American conference programs that we don't know that much about and because of what Tom Herman was able to to get Houston on the map Dana Holgerson should be able to carry that forward It might take a little bit who knows but I think because we know about that program now There is the potential for notoriety and you absolutely have to have that to be in Heisman consideration Edward I want to ask you about another player with some longer odds Jalen Hertz. He's transferring over to Oklahoma and I don't like him as a Heisman candidate because he's going to Oklahoma where the last two Heisman winners have come from at the quarterback position I like him because I think he's a pretty good quarterback and I think you can throw the ball pretty well Alabama last year he started full-time Was 15th when I looked at yards for play adjusted for string to schedule. I think this guy can just play flat out play football Where do you stand on Jalen Hertz? Well, I think this makes sense that certainly it feels odd to go back to the same school in the same position three straight years But at the same time You know, I like Jalen Hertz as a quarterback I do find it interesting that he's coming from Nick Saban's program and he was able to develop quite well there But is Lincoln Riley that much better of a quarterback whisperer than the guys Alabama has had over these last few years that that's sort of a concern of mine because Not that Alabama does everything perfectly But certainly they do a lot of things very very well And so does Lincoln Riley have what it takes to develop somebody even more and take them to that next level I think that's a very important question to ask The other thing too about Oklahoma that I don't think we're talking about enough Is that I think the big 12 is going to be a good bit tougher this year Maybe a little bit more top heavy than say the last few years. I like Iowa State a ton Texas may very well be back. I have some concerns about them. But that is a serious Contender in the big 12. I think TCU deserves more recognition than what it's getting in the preseason So I think the schedule gets a good bit tougher for Oklahoma I think they're going to be more challenges for Jalen Hertz than say what Kyla Murray and Baker Mayfield faced And so because of all of those things I'm certainly a little bit more bearish about Hertz's chances to win the Heisman Then certainly the last couple of Oklahoma quarterbacks Yeah, and I just jump in real quick like I mean the one thing like they've had an excellent offensive line the past two years So I know Jim's big into studying the offensive line I'm really interested losing that many starters off a great line how that's going to affect that offense as well So again, just another one of the challenges that Hertz will face Completely agree with you And let's we'll circle back to Trevor Lawrence and to a tug of Iloa in a second But you mentioned Iowa State and you sounded pretty excited about them So any thoughts on Brock Purdy who is not currently listed at vandal sportsbook If he were to become listed Edward would he peak your interest at all? Absolutely, he would peak my interest all right and a slight digression here from your question It is fascinating again going back to Heisman odds that Some who have won were not listed in the preseason and This is the danger of going into You know trying to pick somebody because the name may simply not be there It very much is an award where somebody can come out of nowhere to a point And win this whole thing Brock Purdy at Iowa State sixth and pass a rating 21st in total qb of dark gets another year of development and I think Iowa State could very well finish second or first in the big 12 And if they're able to see these headlines by beating big old Oklahoma in glorious fashion How the heck is he not part of the hot conversation? Something else too? I wanted to add is uh Any and every Heisman winner over the last several years they've come in as at least a three star recruit It's it's something where okay You can't be a two star or one star come literally out of nowhere and win this thing You at least to have you need to have at least a little bit of preseason pub to you Brock Purdy is a three star a lot of other big names were three stars as well Certainly a couple of five stars like Kyla Murray do win the award But if you have at least three stars to your name, then that's certainly a qualification and purdy certainly has that Couple things about Brock purdy too. He has a brother named Sheba I think that's a positive just because it sounds cool So that's a huge Puss for Brock purdy also with the keen butler leaving And being a I believe it's a fourth round pick in the nfl Clearly nfl town evaluators are not as high on her keen butler as some of us may have been Entering the nfl draft, which means it may not be as big of a loss as it may be perceived to be So Brock purdy interesting guy if you do see his name pop up on some odds Let's let's talk here about the guys at the top end right now Edward we're talking here with edward egros follow him on twitter at edwithsports and edward we have to atonga vailoa He is plus 350 we have trevor lorence at plus 200 you can't bet on Them versus the field the fans will sportsbook sounds like we're taking the field pretty easily here But let's say i forced you to choose between toa and between trevor at their respective odds Which one do you like more between those two guys? Well, first off jim. I it's not very nice of you to to force me to pick one or the other right? I did or why I deserve this, but Actually, I may go against the grain here and i'm going to go into a uh over trevor for a couple of reasons and I think That's psychologically perhaps, but uh, I think a lot of people looked at trevor You know coming in midseason and all of a sudden winning the national championship as somebody who? Uh again, it's that coming out of nowhere narrative And if he has a full season and a full off season as the starter Then he can really show what he's capable of. Well, you look at the numbers though Lawrence had more pass attempts than toa for the season Uh more plays overall lorence actually played more than to a tag of iola And that's in large part because alabama was beating up on everybody by 30 40 points And then they were able to go to herts in the the third and fourth quarters But you get down even deeper here toa 199.4 passing efficiency You know that's at the top of the list. Uh trevor lorence was 12th in that department Total qbr toa was second among all college football quarterbacks trevor was eight And so toa He played less and still put up better efficiency numbers And I don't see why that wouldn't continue next season Edward so there's a there's kind of a second tier behind these these two top leaders You have a guy who has not started a college football game yet and justin fields as the third highest odds And then a bunch of guys in the the 20 to 30 level Besides the guys you've already talked about anyone well actually does does the justin fields thing Kind of stand out to you Being the third highest Sure, uh, it is interesting, uh, but at the same time I think You know the college football narrative these days involves basically only five football programs when you think about it We talk about alabama a lot. We talk about clemson. We talk about georgia now Because they made the national championship game and the only one to to really fight with alabama within conference We talk about ohio state of good that and we talk about oklahoma and it seems like those are the only five programs that that get National attention and so those key marquee players from those five programs are certainly going to get good highs and odds And plus it's like ok ohio state's been knocking on the door to get to the playoff It hadn't happened and so at some point this has to right so I think that's sort of part of the narrative Um, but but as far as uh anybody else who I think has a great shot at winning the heisman Uh, one guy I'm very much interested in is uh, kaleel tate Uh second and total qbr in 2017 and he has a coach who groomed a heisman trophy winner before tate suffered You know that sort of ankle injury in 2018 could bounce back and surprise some people And at plus 3000 I think that's good value Absolutely, and I think that he has a name recognition too, which is always in his favor because you got a lot of buzz last year So that's interesting. Let's go a little bit deeper. We did mention brock purdy who is not currently on the board I don't know how much deeper you can go than that, but anybody longer you want to throw out here edward while we're on the air Anybody longer, uh, that is a good question. I will if there's not that is totally okay, too well I mean looking at the other names, uh Geez, uh, you know at plus 6000 Maybe jt daniels. That makes some sense there Uh, kelin mond plus 15,000 I mean, you know to me texas a nm could be the only program in the west that could really Uh go towards alabama, uh, you know, I know lsu gets a lot of recognition and then deservedly so but I I think a nm can finish second in the sec west And with that you certainly have the possibility of upsetting alabama and if that happens You're going to get some highs in consideration Uh, but it is basically one game against, uh, quite possibly the best program in college football So maybe that one makes some sense, but there's so many names that are not listed that I actually like a good bit Uh, just in the terms of the variability uh index as it were, uh, so You know the ones listed. Uh, nobody really stands out aside aside from the ones I've mentioned before but Goodness gracious, you don't have to wait, uh, too long for Somebody to come out of nowhere and probably that that first name that second name that jumps into the list Uh, I will be looking at very seriously. So what are the names that you're monitoring? Uh, as guys who may not be listed right now, again, we mentioned brock purdy But you said there are a couple other guys. Is anyone else that you know that you're at least monitoring for right now Absolutely, uh, so I mentioned, uh, the programs that get national attention, uh, Obviously alabama is one of them. Uh, trey sanders the running back, uh, you know, very young, uh, but as as i'm sure you guys agree Uh, running backs They can be young and still be very very effective. Uh, this is a five star guy, uh, one of the top recruits in the country And this may be somebody who has to, you know, carry the load a bit more depending upon how alabama uses to uh They may want to sort of save him a good bit and make sure he's not doing very much work But with so many so much talent on the offensive side of the ball for alabama Certainly a running back could could come in there and be incredibly effective saving to uh from having to extend himself too much Uh, so that's somebody who uh, you know makes a lot of sense. Also, uh, just down the road from there at auburn You have a quarterback battle between bow nix and joey gatewood Uh auburn is usually pretty reliable when it comes to getting at least seven to eight to nine wins And who knows they may break through at some point if they they they've had success against alabama the last few years Um, you know not a ton, but they have gotten a couple of upsets here and there Uh, and so certainly the quarterback at auburn if they're able to to piece something together That's something to watch out for so it's one of those situations where I think you want to look for guys Who have opportunities to be in the national spotlight and have a good supporting cast around them to possibly pull off a major upset Maybe they're not in the playoff. Maybe they're not they're not winning a conference championship But they if you have that sort of heisman moment or that heisman highlight reel That's just a little bit better than everyone else's that certainly matters Doesn't get a whole lot better than unlisted. I like it. Mm-hmm Unlisted. Yeah Yeah, and I and I really love the logic with auburn I mean their program history is so volatile in terms of you know coming close to winning a national championship and Uh, guzmall's ounce first year and then kind of falling off and you know coming close again So just always a program where the cupboard is stacked. So love the logic on that Absolutely that is all we have for today with edward e-gross edward I want to thank you for hopping on here spreading some knowledge Giving me some solid confirmation bias on dara king and brock purdy. I appreciate that all by itself So thank you for making me feel better about my college football takes I appreciate that and hopefully we can get you on the air again soon to talk more college football Anytime you want me on I am available to build the echo chamber for you Thank you so much. We'll talk to you again soon. My pleasure. Thank you Covering the future One final thank you to edward e-gross for hopping on here and chatting with us about heisman odds Really fun discussion and talking about a lot of players who should be really excited to watch For 2019 make sure you keep an eye out for those guys you mentioned to who are not listed yet In case they become listed after week one follow edward on twitter at ed with sports If you want to get in on the action and check out those odds Check out the fan dual sports book and place your first bet today If you lose fan dual will give you a refund of up to 500 dollars in site credit Visit sportsbook dot fan dual dot com for more details terms and conditions apply Must be 21 plus and physically present in new jersey or pennsylvania because pennsylvania Has just launched her fan dual sports book gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Let's finish up here with covering the future for this week in ed last week We talked about nfl futures and one of the teams i neglected to discuss during that discussion was the Colts And I think that they're a team that's gotten a lot of you know A lot of enthusiasm from people like me and other people you know who look at analytics because of how good their offense was Last year you want to talk about the Colts for covering the future but from a different perspective And focusing on a potential weak spot within that team Yeah, you know, I mean, I think this is a team. Uh, I I agree with all the optimism about the offense in terms of the play calling We talked about it with uh Evan silva as well just, you know, the the modern things that this team is doing But let's look at the defensive side of the ball and the the way i'm evaluating their defense in 2018 is by success rate And it's a pretty simple definition Play as success for an offense if they get half of the yards on first down 70 of the yards on second down and then all the necessary yards On third and fourth down Now when you take that metric and look at success rate allowed for the Colts They were 25th when you look at the raw numbers Unfortunately, the story gets even worse when you make adjustments for strength of schedule That's what i'm good at and You have to look at who they played last year. So in division you're looking at houston Tennessee and Jacksonville None of those teams really had great offenses by the adjustments success rate calculation I've done the best unit was Tennessee at 18th So in division you're looking at three teams that had below NFL average offenses And then when you look, um, you know the scheduling gods were very kind To the Colts last year. They had to play the afc east Obviously that includes a very tough game against new england whose offense is terrific And that was by far the best offense that they played last year But you also get the buffalo bills You get the miami dolphins and you get the new york jets from last year Those were three of the bottom six offenses by adjusted success rate So when you do the adjustment for opponent With success rate the Colts dropped to 31st Okay, so this unit, um, his was not good last year. They're kind of relying on a lot of the same guys to come back and You know when you're 31st in the nfl you're gonna get better simply by regression of the mean But how much better are they gonna get? I have my doubts about that and then let's look at the schedule that the Colts have this year I mean, it's a complete Different story than last year. So instead of the afc east, you're getting the afc west This includes two road games at the los angeles chargers and at the kansas city chiefs We both know those two teams have fantastic offenses They also play the nfc south So again, you're facing great offenses and lana and matt ryan norleans and drew breeze and tambo base not going to be a very good football team probably but they Were pretty good on offense last year Um, and they'll they'll have james winston again this year. So the schedule flips I mean the defense needs to be better for this team to be a legit super bowl contender um I haven't talked myself quite into it, but i'm thinking about colts under nine and a half wins My general philosophy with nfl win totals is you want to go under those high numbers You want to go over the low numbers regression to the mean is a stark reality in the nfl um, and right now, you know, it's you know, you're shading At when I checked the fandals sports book it was plus one each 25 on under nine and a half wins for the colts You know, this team is all about like, you know, how high can the offense go, uh, you know, how much will that defense hold them back? um But uh, I'm I'm thinking I'm thinking I haven't talked myself into it But I'm thinking about the under the colts nine and a half and and I think this is a kind of contrarian play because I think a lot of people are very excited about Where this colts team is headed well on your podcast just last week We were talking about how much I love the colts offensive line And that's led me to be pretty excited about This team in general and I think that I like the colts But I think that your point about the schedule is pretty interesting because Let's look back to last year after their bi-week They're had their bi-week night So they had half their week or half their season after the bi-week They faced Jacksonville starting quarterback there was Blake Bortles The next week they faced Tennessee and Mario to started that game But left at halftime because he got sacked and couldn't feel his hand again So they got half of a game of football against Blaine Gabbard Next week they faced Ryan Tannehill Then it was Cody Kessler Leading a 6-0 victory over the Colts in Jacksonville the following week And the Cody Kessler truth were in me rejoiced the Colts backer in me did not So that was fun. There they faced Ashon Watson, Dak Prescott, Eli Manning And then in week 17 it was that that game that could have sent Tennessee to the playoffs Remember Mario to couldn't play that game either and it was Blaine Gabbard again So they faced Blaine Gabbard for a game and a half They faced Cody Kessler for a full game they faced Blaine or Blake Bortles for a good chunk of a game I think that that backs up your concerns around their defense And I did make some additions in free agency to that defense But I think that it's at least worthwhile To keep in mind that there is potentially more fragility within this Colts team then then maybe I and others want to give them credit for Yeah, and you should we should only talk about the additions. I mean Justin Houston Defensive and past rusher. They signed him in free agency. He also is 30 years old Did have nine sacks, you know each about nine sacks each of the last two years Well, the chief felt that it was necessary to you know, let Houston walk and trade and you know Make the the trade for Frank Clark like When a team makes that calculation It doesn't say that that player is not good But it does at least tell you something about their evaluation of him Right and then it all depends on how much you're paying him as well. So I mean definitely a lot of factors that go in there I think even as bullish as you can be and I you know, I agree with all the stuff that you that you've said about their offensive line Um, and we should make the note that you know, you thought you were bullish ton their offensive line heading into last year At 20 second in your offensive line rankings and then they got really good adding two rookies To that offensive line, right? Exactly on the defensive side of the ball, you know, maybe they're taking around pick rock yashin the corner back out of temple becomes a stud And all of a sudden you've got some questions answered on the defensive side of the ball. So these things can always happen right It should also be noted that uh, you know success in the draft tends to progress pretty hard Year to year for for teams. So yeah Well, I mean, we'll see how it goes. That's it's going to make it exciting But I just think there's a lot for me There's a lot of concerns on the defense side of the ball for the Colts And the ac south in general should be tougher this year too with hopefully two functioning hands for marcus marriota A functioning quarterback in nick foals in jacksonville and ishawn watson may be not getting sacked 67 times or whatever it was I weren't talking about the minnesota twins because I think as someone who is heavily a part of twins twitter Uh, it follows that very closely. There's a lot of panic in minnesota land and there's a lot of panic in the betting right now because the twins are Currently minus 230 to make the playoffs and they've lost a lot of ground to cleveland recently They at one point had an 11 game leading the american league central But now after sunday That lead is down to two games It was at 1.1 game over the weekend And that's pushed the twins odds to win the central down to minus 230 Which is an implied probability of 69.7 percent Which is still kind of high, but it's not that high And I think that there's still some value in that line where it currently sits The two reasons that the teams have merged back together are first the cleveland offense playing really well Jose Ramirez had an injury to start the year and has been heating up since the start of june So let's kind of ignore for cleveland What happened before june because I think that with lindore being out and ramirez not playing well They're a different team than than they than they are now From june 1st on cleveland's offense ranks sixth in the league in w rc plus So they've been very good and much better than they were before But the twins offense is still fourth in w rc plus since june 1st And that is when you lop off the really impressive start to the year that the twins had The other reason that the two teams have really come together is the twins had their injuries recently Whereas cleveland had theirs back in april byron buxton missed a lot of time and he is a big piece to the twins I joke about him on twitter because i have a weird man crush on him, but He's actually a really valuable piece of this team He ranks third in fangrass wins above replacement among position players And outfield wins are the dumbest stat you could possibly cite But I think they do illustrate a lot of buxton's value because this team is 51 and 24 when buxton starts They're 13 and 17 when he does not the defensive value that byron buxton brings to this team Is really hard to replace eddie rosario missed time in that span Those are big losses to have for this team migelson now changed up his swing recently He's cut his strikeout rate 10 percentage points over the past month So a lot of things right now are working in the twins favor with buxton being healthy rosario being healthy So no improving And I think that It's it's a good thing for this twins team that the odds have come down They still rank second in the american league in run differential right now They rank third in number fires power rankings while cleveland while still very good is down in sixth That's why number number fires algorithms give the twins 81.9 percent odds of winning that american league central And again the implied probability here based on the odds is 69.7 percent So there actually is some value in betting the twins to win the american league central and You should probably do it pretty soon if you want to bet the twins because they're facing the marlins and the royals this week And those two teams are not great bob whereas cleveland i believe is facing the yankees So if you want to bet the twins now is your time to do so i would not panic if you are Someone who backed the twins previously Things could get better and i think that regression in the positive sense could be here for minnesota I know you focus on cluster luck a lot Yeah, any interesting things in the twins when it comes to that Yeah, absolutely. Um, so first of all in baseball you said you uh, I mean you You know the season's so long teams are going to go in ups and downs like you you can't overreact the things And I think you're you're thinking is right along the right lines and in terms of not overreacting So cluster luck is this concept that um You know teams given your underlying statistics in terms of singles doubles walks homers You should score a certain number of runs And if you score over that number of runs, it's probably because you clustered your hits together You know, so for example like getting nine singles and an inning instead of spreading out nine singles over nine innings um So this is just and and the research has shown that you know Your luck, you know tends to regress very strongly to the mean both in season and in between seasons So what I what I do for my baseball numbers is I look at the expected number of runs in terms of those underlying metrics And so that in some sense accounts for cluster luck because i'm not looking at actual runs. I'm looking at expected runs um a bunch of other factors go into My baseball numbers as well, but since You know may I've been pretty surprised to see minnesota in the top five They continue to be in the top five just as in the number of fire rankings are fourth right now and they're like, you know, uh Six thousands of a of a percent of a run behind tampa bay right now. So You know the dodgers the top team dodgers and houston are kind of significantly away from everyone else But minnesota is definitely in the conversation right behind them with another surprise tampa bay team uh cleveland's 14th of my numbers So a little bit uh lower than than you guys have ever over at number fire So the numbers certainly support what you're saying. I think my numbers support what you're saying even more with with Cleveland uh being lower um I'm not an expert on baseball handicapping or player situation. So I'll leave that to you jim But but my overall team numbers over the course of the year certainly agree with what you're saying Yeah, and there's a reason I didn't say bet the twins to win the world series because I would agree that houston and los angeles are Like a tier above everybody else especially with that rotation that houston has just stupid how good They are so i'm not betting the twins to win the world series That does not happen since I was six months old. So it's probably not going to happen this year either Uh, but I think that to make the playoffs right now. There is some value in that line at minus two 30 And that is all we have. Oh, you got something else. Oh, I just wanted to ask I mean as a follower of the twins. I mean they were one of the most hard-headed. We're not doing analytics clubs Yeah, perhaps a decade ago. How's that evolved? Uh, very much so they once they made the changes in their front office. They Made a concerted effort to go with an analytics heavy approach and they took from organizations that have You know valued that in the past in cleveland in texas and I think we're seeing the fruits of that specifically with their rotation, uh, and I think that that's why I feel better about it because it you look at the The underlying stats with their pitchers and a lot of them aren't like they are out performing their skill interactive ERA, but you kind of expect that with the outfield defense being as good as it is and they're not Doing it in a way that seems fluky and I think that that's why I feel good about it And I think that they have been valuing the right things They've been trying to get strikeouts in that pitching staff and they have done so much to my delight because I love a good strike Out love a good strike out So it's been it's been fun to watch that evolution and I'm excited to see how things turn out again I'm not expecting a world series But I think that what they've done so far is sustainable And I do expect to continue at least to the end of 2019. Well, and so anything else Yeah, it must be nice laughing at the detroit tigers as the worst team in the baseball Uh as someone who has nicolas castellanos on my dynasty team. It has not been laughing. It's been crying Because he is no no one around him. I've gotten no runs. No rbi's the entire year which is another More evidence that sees the long fantasy baseball stupid, but you know, right? It is how it goes, but as a twins fan, right? I mean, you know sticking it. Yeah stick the opponent in division I tend to root for my fantasy teams more than I should I'll put that right But stacking the twins in dfs that is a different discussion. I've had a lot of fun with that So we'll go with that for sure Uh add anything big for you over at the power rank for this week. Yeah, just look into college football wind totals Uh and uh, you can get my college football wind totals report sign up for my free email newsletter at thepowerrank.com All righty and again, uh, you can follow it on twitter at the power rank I am at jim sonnis one final reminder to subscribe rate and review the podcast because When you subscribe you'll get the pot each podcast right as his post another one coming up on thursday morning chatting with that about those college football wind totals which teams he likes for 2019 and we'll dive into of course the The northwestern versus stanford game coming up. I believe in september, right? Yes, it's week one. Oh, so it's august. All right, even better. I think it's yeah, I don't know very soon That might be september. Yeah, I don't the farm week one We are a month away stanford's a favorite. Uh, I'm not shocked. I will put it that way We'll talk about that on thursday. I hope you all tune in then thank you all for tuning in for today Big thank you once again to edward e-gross for joining us and chatting about the his heisman bets for 2019 We'll talk to you again on thursday. This has been covering the spread here on the fan dual podcast network