 Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction. If I didn't see it with my own eyes, I wouldn't believe it. JP Morgan just came out and said that Bitcoin could potentially reach 45k. And when I took a look at this, I had to do a double take because I didn't think it was real. But here we are. So this is actually a piece done by the block. Before we delve into this and the pitfalls and the terrible things that can potentially happen along the way, as a quick reminder, JP Morgan were the people that first said that Bitcoin had nothing to do with anything. And it was just a big farce. Now, to be fair, we have to differentiate between the CEO of JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon and the actual monster conglomerate that is JP Morgan. However, if the CEO doesn't believe in some things, I think behind the scenes, he may actually do that. But in 2015, he said Jamie Dimon said virtual currency will be stopped in 2017. He says Bitcoin's a fraud in 2019 or 2018. He says he regrets calling Bitcoin a fraud and believes in the technology behind it. Same thing to China had said. They talked about how blockchain and not Bitcoin, now they're doing a 180. And then of course, we have here in 2020, he says Bitcoin is not my cup of tea. Even JP Morgan has warmed the crypto. 2021, he says investors could make Bitcoin 1% of portfolios. This was in 2021. This is two years old. JP Morgan may offer actively managed Bitcoin fund. And just amazing how people just at some point come around. It may not be immediate, but they eventually usually do. So here's what the article talks about. And this is from a JP Morgan analyst or strategist that says with the gold price rising above $2,000, the value of gold held for investment purposes outside central banks is currently valued at around $3 trillion. This implies a $45,000 price for Bitcoin under the assumption that Bitcoin equalizes gold in private investors' portfolios and risk capital or value-adjusted terms. JP Morgan considers $45,000 as the upper limit, which I don't think it is, indicating a limited potential for the asset beyond the increase driven by the doubling of mining or production costs. And of course, they're talking about the Bitcoin having, which may happen on April or May. It will mechanically double Bitcoin's production costs around $40,000. This is because Bitcoin's production costs has historically acted as an effective lower balance. Here's the thing. If it's going to be $40,000 of a production cost, I think that's debatable, but do you think people are just going to mind it just to break even, maybe a little $5,000 more? I don't think it's how it's going to work. But I will say this, it is interesting that everything kind of coming in line. It talks about how central banks, I don't know if you knew this, but there was a piece that we covered a couple of weeks ago. I learned this from a guy from Coin Bureau. It's how central banks are going to be allowed to put on Bitcoin crypto assets on their balance sheets in 2025. Now, I think things are lining up here. If you haven't seen this before on my channel, which would be quite odd if you've been here for longer than a week, the four-year cycles, it all starts of course with a having in 2012, and this always happens. Then we get an all-time eye after about a year or so. Then there's a dip and a reset. 2016 happened again, having, 2017, an all-time eye, a dip and a reset, and we just went through another one. If we had a having in 2020, double top 2021, which is the all-time eye, then we had a monstrous 2022 year where everything kind of corroded, and then now we're in this reset point where again we could come in in 2024 and 25 at an all-time eye. Will this continue? Well, it's anybody's guess, but it's been going strong so far. However, there are some things to be aware of as to how this all happens, because JP Morgan has told you it's all because of the having and there is a narrative. Let's be honest, we do talk about this narrative quite a bit. Do we not? We do talk about scarcity, but I think in their people's minds are like, hey, wait, gold isn't totally finite. It may be scarce, but it's not finite like Bitcoin. Maybe when this having does come along, maybe we're going to have issues. Maybe you could produce the price a little bit higher. However, having said that, there are three things to look at as we come into 2024 and 25. I call this one Dixie S&P and M2. We're going to take a look at three things, and it's going to talk about what may potentially pump the price of Bitcoin besides the narrative of the four-year cycles and Bitcoin having and the finite ability and the having of Bitcoin miners. The first one is Dixie. Dixie, if you're not familiar with it, it is the US dollar compared to a basket of other currencies that we trade with. It just depends on how strong or how weak the dollar actually is. This is called the Dixie. Very simply, when the Dixie goes up, Bitcoin goes down. When the Dixie goes down, Bitcoin goes up. I've taken a look at this from 2009 all the way on. You're going to see that. Of course, we take a look at the data that's presented for us. Maybe there's a little bit of cherry picking here and there, but you can see that the Dixie, which was pretty high in 2013, around 83, that means that Bitcoin goes down. As of course, it's gone up since 2010. Then in 2014, the Dixie actually went down and Bitcoin went up. There was a little bit of a price action, excuse me, of November of 2013, almost in January 2014. Of course, again, when the Dixie goes down, Bitcoin goes up. Let's take a look at that again. Moving forward, 2014, 2018, we can see here in 2016, Dixie was a little bit high. Was it not? That means Bitcoin goes down to around 610. Then of course, the Dixie went down in 2017, and Bitcoin went up to almost $20,000. Then here we go again. Dixie goes up in May of 2018. It isn't by much, I might add, but there's enough to make it move a little bit. That is the Dixie. We can take a look again on this continuum for the last cycle, down and up, down and up. The last big high was November 2021, where Dixie was falling a little bit, Bitcoin went up, but then when Dixie went up high enough, now in September 2022, Bitcoin went down. That's just one thing to look at, but what about this? There's another thing that people have been talking about. Well, Rob, the macro events, the macro, NASDAQ and the S&P 500, S&P 500, Standard & Poor, this is 500 top companies, and they say that when these factors go, it's all about macro, don't you know? Well, it could, but then there's one more bigger factor. But if we take a look at S&P 500 over the years, going all the way back to 2012, 2011, we can see that November 2013, when we were, I guess, would be like an all-time high at that point. Yes, Bitcoin was high. Then it goes a little bit on a trench, a little bit sideways. 2017, it goes up. Then we take a look again, moving forward. Yes, I get it, that Bitcoin over in 2021 was also around the high of the S&P 500. So I'm not going to negate the fact that the macro does take effect. I think it does. I mean, obviously, right? If we're in a depression and we go through a halving, I don't know if Bitcoin's going to hit all-time highs. I'm not for sure. But again, if we take a look at this on a continuum, we can see that S&P, since the inception of Bitcoin 2008 was the white paper 2009 was a Genesis block, we're going to see that it just goes up and to the right until recently where things have fallen down. But I think there's an even bigger factor. And that bigger factor that we take a look here, and we can see that, of course, Bitcoin goes right along lockstep with S&P 500. But the bigger factor itself is money supply. This is the M2 money supply. M1 is all the money in circulation, plus bank deposits. M2 is M1 plus savings up to 100,000 plus money market mutual funds. So we can see that since 1960. All America's been doing is printing like crazy. And that's just the normal. So if we take a look at the money supply, and we overlay the S&P 500, this is from Ben's website, you know, the cryptoverse 10% off, want to check it out. A lot of great data, a lot of great alpha. We can see that if we overlay it, it's about the same thing as the money supply grows. So does the S&P 500. If we do the same thing here, S&P 500. If we do Bitcoin, same thing. If we do gold, there's a little bit of a non-correlation since 1980. But you can see that as the money supply goes up, so does gold itself. But to me, there is one factor that I can't get over. And that is this. We have been printing like crazy for quite some time, have we not? But only recently have we reduced the amount of the printing, quantitative tightening. And unfortunately, when we've gone down from not printing, the only time that's happened, it's been four other times. I hate to tell you this. But the last four times that we have reduced the amount of money printing, because that seems like America loves to do, 1870s oppression, panic of 1893, 1921 depression, and the Great Depression, 1932. So the other time that's happened is right now. Will this play out? I'm not for sure. But I will say this, that if we're taking a look at the macro effects, there was a story that just came out because everybody's worried about the Fed and what the Fed is going to do. But in the last minutes, it looks like the Fed officials are less confident on the need for more rate hikes. This is what the minutes show. So quickly, the decision to increase the Fed's bankrupt benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point was unanimous, meeting summary reflected disagreement over what the next move should be with a tilt toward a less aggressive policy. I got to tell you, if we pause in the next one in June, that would be pretty big. They voted to remove a key phrase from its post meeting statement that indicated additional policy firming may be appropriate. And some members judge that progress in reducing inflation was unacceptably low, which I believe actually they're right. I mean, inflation hasn't really come down like it's one or two, but that's not for me to decide, and would necessitate further hikes. However, the others backed by several FOMC members saw slowing economic growth, which is what they want to do, in which further policy firming after this meeting may not be necessary. So what does that mean? Well, in the next meeting coming up in the 14th of June, here is what the market is anticipating. Right now, the current target rate is 500 to 525. They are thinking that the 525 is going to, they're going to pause, 33% say it's going to pause, and 66% say they are going to hike. I will tell you, as we get closer to the actual Fed meeting on 14th of June, you will see this very greatly. And every single time we get it, it seems like in the initial stages, the market is wrong. But then as we get closer, they have a better track record. So I would like to see that. And that is what I think could potentially move us into a Bitcoin pump in a 2024, 2025, which is the macro, which hopefully it's improving. On top of that, there's other good news, which is there's a bigger use case for Bitcoin that we've been talking about a little bit, but not as much as I thought it would actually explode to Bitcoin suddenly becomes the second biggest NFT blockchain. This was today. Over the last 30 days, Ethereum has processed 390 million dollars worth of on-chain NFT transactions. From the same period, Bitcoin NFT transactions totaled 173 million, which is more than triple the amount on Solana, which is a little less than 50 million. So again, if we're taking a look at use cases and everything that goes along with that, is it a store of value? Is it a method of transmission or transaction? Is it an NFT platform? Well, it looks to be all three things. This is a positive thing. Let me know what you think about that in the comment section and finish up just a couple of things here. First of all, Ether balance on exchange is near an all-time low. I was shocked by this. The number of Ether on exchange has hit a low not seen since July 2016 as staking SAPs up available Ether. And I was like, well, how much was it during the bull run? Great question. In contrast, during the bull market of 2021, the exchange balance was around 25 to 26%. And now we're all around 15%. So I know when people talk about, well, it's getting off exchanges and price should go up. It's going to be awesome. And the exchanges have too much, not necessarily. Ethereum price went up a whopping 1.3% in the last 24 hours. And I said 1,800. It was a little bit less than $5,000 during the bull run. So just because things go off the exchanges, and there's a little bit of scarcity, doesn't mean that it's going to skyrocket the price. Sorry to let you know, but that's just the truth. And lastly, things to look out for, again, NFTs and the different platforms it's built on. Starbucks is air-dropping more NFTs in June to expand Web 3 Rewards program. Starbucks is building their NFT program on Polygon, just so you know. So first, air drops only available for US residents. Second, each participant must be a Starbucks Rewards member enrolled in the Starbucks Odyssey. The company's wait-listed Web 3 Rewards platform. I know this is actually even going on. It's amazing to know what people to do just to get a little bit of a discount, but it looks like they're doing it. They will then have to make sure to have completed two journeys. Example of a journey could be going to a different Starbucks store or trying a new drink. I guess that'll be available in the app, and then they just get ticked off, and then they get their NFT and off they go. But again, I probably won't go into this. I'm not a big Starbucks person, but it just goes to show you the power of progress. And we want to take a look at the platforms that are being built on. And Polygon is one of those platforms also. Crypto is already visible at Formula One events. And what's happening there? Well, as you can see, 10 is the Monica Formula One Grand Prix, which runs from May 26, 28, able to receive an NFT ticket issued on Polygon. The ticketing platform combines the robust security of Ethereum with the forge-proof uniqueness of NFTs to enhance ticket authenticity and prevent counterfeiting. Because I'm always thinking to myself, like, why don't we just use tickets? It seems a lot easier. But apparently, this would be pretty good for counterfeiting. It also provides fans with lasting digital mementos. And also, it could be a pretty cool thing if you wanted to do loyalty programs like, oh, you've gone to three of these races. Well, here's a VIP section. And of course, it's proven with NFTs and it's not counterfeitable and off you go. So that, again, is what is going on in the market. And before we sign off, just so you know, I'm super biased. So I talk about the things that I personally invest in, which would be going Ethereum and Polygon. Now, I invest in a host of other ones, but that was just the stories today. But that's it. So look, like today's video, give it a thumbs up, consider subscribing. I don't care who you subscribe to, but things are moving so fast. I think it would really behoove you to actually sign up and listen to somebody who you trust and you like to listen to. If that's me, so much the better. If not, just find somebody. But that's it for today. So thanks so much for stopping by. Do appreciate it. And I'll see you on the next one.