 Obviously, the bigger potential is to the downside, right? It's obvious. Again, you're talking about eight to 10 points in the queue to the downside. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to a weekend edition of theaxisotrade.com. Nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. If you're like me, usually Friday afternoons, the last thing you want to think about is the stock market and trading. It doesn't make a difference how good or bad your week went. It was more of you need some downtime. As you can see right now, it is October the first. It is five o'clock in the afternoon. The market closed about a week ago, about an hour ago. So he's trying to ask me, what the hell am I doing recording, let alone doing any type of deduction? Well, if you're any type of parent like I am, your kids at this time of year have 95 basketball games, soccer games, and softball games. So this is literally the only time of the whole weekend that I can sit down, kind of, you know, just relax a little bit, reflect, have some coffee, right? Have some coffee and kind of start going through some ideas for next week and kind of reflect on this week. And, you know, hopefully you guys had a good week of trading, a lot of bias to the sell side this week. If you've been watching this video or this broadcast, just in the last week, I've been sell bias for the whole week. You had so many different things on the table, right? You still have the on off again, on again, off again, Evergrande is gonna default, is gonna miss some payments, whatever the case may be, you have that on the table. You had the middle of the week, you had the Fed meeting, a potential to kind of rip off the Band-Aid and maybe start raising some sort of rates by November, you had that on the table. You have rising yields, rising yields, surging yields, bad for technology. You had so much stuff on the table. And oh, by the way, we spent the majority of the week underneath the 50 day moving average, which is kind of a big deal technically. And no matter what the market did this week, we saw a common theme over and over again, excuse me. And that common theme was every single time the market would gap up, literally every single time the NASAC 100 would gap up, it would literally get stuffed into supply every single day. The ironic part about it is it didn't just do this once, it didn't do it twice, it didn't do it three times, it didn't do it four times, it did it five times this week and every single time they were putting in lower highs into supply and they were just taking down stocks one by one by one. And again, this is what happens when the index is below the 50 day moving average. So there was no surprise if you put in your homework this week that technology was super duper weak. Again, it's surging, you have surging yields, it's not gonna be good for technology. And you had this really good aggressive decline this week and it wasn't that obvious to a lot of people but if you've been watching this broadcast, we've been pretty much doing a roll call, right? Amazon broke down, great move this week, right? Amazon broke down, Google for the exception of today had a great move, three day move down, 35, 40 points, really, really good move. Apple today broke down at some point, right? 41 and a quarter, 41 broke down and went down all the way down to $39. You had Nvidia taking out recent lows traded to this next support as well. And you had a lot of these names, right? Baidu, right Baidu broke down below this 52 level. Again, still going lower. You have a slew of a bunch of Nasdaq names that just cannot get out of their own way. I mean, look at Peloton, right? Look at Peloton, I mean, look at, you know, look at squares of the world. You know, there's a lot of names out there that just didn't even have a pulse. Again, a lot of names did kind of wake up. I would say the majority of companies, especially tech names are still way underneath supply. And they're gonna need to really, you know, show their stuff, what they can do to get out of supply. Because if you do look on the Nasdaq 100 and you see a lot of people talking about this afternoon, well, you know, that was the bottom of the move. Why? Why was that the bottom of the move? Again, I don't know. But it's a very, very fair question. Like why was that the bottom of the move? We broke below the 50-day moving average. We had a measure potential move down to 356, 357, right? We talked about those levels in the beginning of the week. And to the bull's credit, again, again, I'm being completely unbiased, to the bull's credit, they did reclaim the 356, 357 level, right? That's the good news. The bad news is we're still putting in three days worth of lower highs and we got rejected on the five-day moving average. And oh, by the way, we're at day six, right? Or day five, excuse me, day five underneath the 50-day. So as much as today's reversal seemed to be really good and it was, right? You had the Nasdaq up 100 points. Okay, whatever, right? You had the Nasdaq up 100 points. The value this week was all to the sell side. Even a name like Tesla that had monster, monster, monster order flow and anticipation of China numbers, China data to be released either tonight or tomorrow, some point over the weekend, monster, monster flow, even a name like Tesla, you know, after this really, really big breakout, again, put in four days in a row of lower highs and lower lows. So not everything is rallying back, right? And the most important part kind of going into that next week is, well, what happens next? And this is kind of where we are. This is where, again, we talk about reality versus fantasy world. No matter how good or bad a market is, and just keep this in mind, I've been doing this for a long, long time. No matter how good the internet craze was, we still saw periods that, again, a lot of people won't remember, but even during that time, you did have times in the market, even though it only lasts like 15, 17 months, you had intervals of the market two, three, four days in a row that the market couldn't get out of its own way. The same thing is the opposite, right? When you go down to the mortgage mess, as much as equities were going, were being sold, and when I mean sold, companies were going out of business, Barrister, Lehman Brothers, a bunch of mortgage companies, a bunch of insurance companies, bunch of banks, a bunch of everything was on the chopping block every single day. There were still periods in that area that the market actually had a two, three, four day run. So no matter how good a market is or how bad a market is, you're still gonna get those debt cat bounces, right? You're still going to have those days that it feels good, it looks good, but deep in your belly, you kind of know it doesn't feel right. And that's kind of so far where we are with this bounce and the queues. Now again, two things are gonna happen next week. And again, those two things are not a subjective, it's not worth an argument, it's not worth a debate. There's only two things are gonna happen next week. We're either going to reclaim, right, reclaim the five day moving average. And if you've been watching, if you've been watching the broadcast for a long time, you know how important the five day moving average is. For me, it's short-term sentiment. So we're either going to reclaim this five day moving average and start taking out the previous channel's highs and start moving back to the 10 day and the 50 day moving average, or we're gonna put in another lower high. And this is exactly what we've been doing now for the last one, two, three, four, five days in a row, right? We're either gonna put in another lower high, get rejected off the five day moving average, and today's low of that 354.30s level on the queues, that's gonna be the line in the sand. And again, we talked about this on Wednesday's video. The last thing the bulls wanna do technically, again, if you believe in the theory of stock trade from supply to supply and demand to demand, right? So here's demand, here's more demand, they reclaim demand. So if the queues reclaim, right? If the bears reclaim this 354 level, which is the low of today's session, you have another seven to 10 points of downside. And we spoke about this during the week. The first part of the sell-off might have not been that exaggerated. And yes, equity prices went down, technology names got beat up, but you might have not really felt it because it was so much speculation money, in the smaller cap names, a lot of speculation names, but I'm telling you, if we start reclaiming, right? If the bears start reclaiming this whole bottom channel here, then that next seven to 10 points on the queues is going to be felt. It's not gonna be just another dollar on Apple, another 50 cents on Facebook. You're gonna have a significant move. So if you are a bull, and again, we trade both sides of the market, it doesn't make a difference to us which side, as long as we are reading market sentiment the correct way, as long as we're putting ourselves in the position of data, not opinion, not what we think is gonna happen, not anticipating, but if we're putting our exit a basket of data, and we're collecting that data throughout the week, then we absolutely know there's two scenarios. We either reclaim the five day and start moving our way up, or we reclaim the bottom of this channel that was below on this whole rising support, right? This whole rising support of the 100 day moving average, and then we still have eight to 10 points of downside in any close below 54. I mean, I was pretty much 95% sell buys this whole week. That's how aggressive the action was this week, even today, right? Last night you had the futures lower because of the debt deal, then this morning you had the futures higher because of the debt deal, and then they pulled the plug on everything. Amazon got smacked this morning, the video got smacked, Apple got smacked, everything got smacked. Like literally everything got smacked this morning for only for them to reclaim. So you're going to have a little bit of a news cycle, a lot of spin, maybe going into this weekend, maybe going into early part of the next weekend. Again, I think there's been like nine or 10 government shutdowns over the last 10 years. So who cares, okay? What are you, not going to get your mail, right? Who cares? At the end of the day, who cares, okay? I don't care what the argument that it is so scary, so atrocious. There's been 10 government shutdowns. You might not be able to get a stamp at the post office. Adios mio, right? So life will go on. The moral, what's more important is what happens next. The stock market for September, putting it a horrific effort, right? Probably the worst effort since the May, what was it, the May pandemic lows, right? So the market felt it. So the fact that we had a little bit of a relief rally that started October 1st, doesn't really ring a lot of bells for me, doesn't really make me feel very, very confident or very, very comfortable going into next week on the long side. But at the end of the day, I still am a realist. I understand what happens when levels get confirmed. I understand when levels get lost and whatever the wind blows, whichever direction the wind blows, we are going to be comfortable in that direction and confident trading those levels. Obviously the bigger potential is to the downside, right? It's obvious. Again, you're talking about eight to 10 points and the Q's to the downside versus two points to the upside. So the value for next week is to the downside. But again, yes, we could have a second day rally off the five day moving average into the 10. And in that case, you have to be prepared on both sides of the market. So we look, I'm very, very, I'm very open-minded going into a Monday session. I think that is the best way to play it, right? I do believe we did have a little bit of a bounce today, whether that bounce continues on Monday, at least we'll be prepared for it. So let me give you guys some ideas that I kind of do like for next week. Netflix has been acting pretty well all week. This whole rollout of the whole video game part of their business, it looks good. You had some pretty good call buying, never really sold off this week compared to its peers. And listen, if it starts attacking this channel, maybe if there's a second day, you could get a nice bounce. Look at Boeing, right? Look at Boeing also had a really, really good run in the middle of this whole carnage. Listen, if they could start attacking the top of the level here, you still have room. You still have a pretty decent amount of room. Again, we don't know how big or if this dead cat bounce is going to last, but at least, right? At least we will be prepared. A name like DDOG again had a really, really good run, right? Reclaim the 10-day moving average, which is a good thing, right? If they could just get above this channel here, hey, I'm not saying it's going to go to highs, but hey, it might not go that far away from highs. Even names to the downside, like Micron. Micron is just flagging here, still waiting for it to crack those earnings lows. If that channel gives, you're probably going to have a two, three day run. If you guys remember, some of the better plays, especially shorts, the drifting shorts, have always been the names that missed earnings, rally a little bit, and then confirm the earnings lows, and you saw a multi-week drift. So for example, you guys remember when Amazon missed their earnings, right? So they missed their earnings, had this little pop, and then once it broke its earnings, it had a two and a half a week drift. If you guys remember a Zoom, right? Remember Zoom? Zoom blew up on earnings, right? Went up a little bit, confirmed the zone, had about three weeks worth of selling. So MU is probably going to be exactly the same thing. So it put in its earnings low here, double bottom here. If they could start cracking the earnings lows, then again, you could definitely have a two, three week way of moving down with a linear balance. Tesla, we'll see what happens. Tesla had a monster, monster run last week, right? Excuse me, Monday. Had a monster, monster run last week as well, but Monday, China inventories are coming out at some point over the weekend. You have for next week, 810s, 820, 830, aggressive, aggressive six, seven figure call buyers stepping in in anticipation of a good inventory number. But again, there's no guarantees they're guessing. Unless they know something, they're guessing like everybody else. We know the macro number and we will be watching that macro number for the next leg up. So that's it everybody. It is 515, right? 515, Friday afternoon, believe me, this has nothing to do about dedication and outworking. This is called being a dad, right? Guys, have a great weekend. I hope you guys have the best for all you guys who are coming to the pancakes and pivots Q&A monthly in the webinar on Sunday. We welcome you, bring your questions, bring your coffee and bring your bagels. Guys, have a great, great weekend and with God's help, I'll see you guys next week. Take care.