 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Good morning, market kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Monday morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN. Just after 9 a.m. Eastern time, as we kick off the trading week in about 24 minutes, and we have markets in positive territory, we kick off the new quarter, the new month as well, quite the month in September for negative prices. We kick things off to begin October with the S&Ps, up about 1% right now. You see the acceleration in things. We're looking a little dicey last night. Going to bed at about 11 p.m. Eastern time, you had the S&Ps down about 30 points this morning. We're up about 40 points. That's a swing of about 70, 70 points from where we were last evening. Futures accelerating higher. We got yields a little bit lower today. We got some action and currencies, as is usually the case recently. We have the NASDAQ 100. We had a 10,000 handle overnight. Pretty remarkable, folks. What's the high? 16,600 or something? 16,700, and we got a 10,000 handle, folks. We came into COVID at 97.63. So you're almost talking about the NASDAQ giving it all back in terms of where you were. That's right, 97.63, and you make it down to about 10,900 last night. We're back above 11,000 this morning on the NASDAQ 100. You get the Dow up 1.1%. Back above 29,000, 29,132. You get the Russell up almost 1.5% this morning. Crude catching a bid. We got some OPEC news this morning. They may be cutting, is the word crude. Climbing to almost $84. We spent the most the last week in the 70s for the price of crude. Interesting there. We jumped to the commodities, gold, up about $2. Gold's down to 16.22 on Wednesday. We're up at about 16.75 this morning, and we jumped to notes and bonds, and there's your action for higher price and lower yield right now. You got the tenure soaring about 23 ticks. You talk about some action, man, in the note and bond market yields, volatility. It seems normal, folks, because that's what's been going on for some time, but boy, these types of swings, when you're talking about, I mean, just the move on Wednesday was magnificent in terms of the action. You got over two full points on Wednesday. Friday, you accelerate in terms of lower price, higher yield into the close, and just like that, we're up almost a full point from where we were of Friday's close on the 10 year, the 30 years, up a full point and 18 ticks right now. At 1.2730, we jump over to the volatility index, 31.30. We ended last week at about 33. We take a look at this thing. Let's put it on a daily and just zoom in on the action on this year so far. And that seems like a pretty reasonable spike, folks. I was talking about back when the VIX was at 28, right, just comparing it to the spikes of this year. So we're not talking about COVID spikes. We're not talking about fears of the world ending through a pandemic VIX spikes, which brought us all the way, just for some context here, to 85.47, okay? But since then, you have spikes that are in the high 30s to low 40s. Sometimes you had a 28 there, thereabouts, but you zoom in on the action this year, which I think is most important, because that's when the sell-offs have been going on. 38.94, 37.79, you see the highs there, 36 and 35. We were chopping around at 28, even though this market was selling off, but what did we get? We got a high of 34.88, comparable to some of the other highs earlier in the year, not quite as high as 35.05, but when you put it on this chart, maybe that's a little bit of an exacerbated fear driving us to almost 35 in the VIX. And just like that, this morning, we opened near 31 on the volatility index. All right, let's jump around to some of the currencies. We'll kick things off with the dollar index this morning, dollar index on a daily basis. You know, yeah, we got a little bit of a pullback now. Let's put it on a five minutes to see the action so far this morning, just chopping around really where we were on Friday, right? But you take a look at this thing, that's a weekly, I meant to put it on a daily. Take a look at this thing on a daily. The trend is intact, folks. Okay, that's really what I wanted to showcase at the kickoff of this, the trend is intact. Yes, we peaked out, okay, but where'd we peek out? We peaked out at the top of this channel line that's been intact basically since the beginning of the year, basically the end of January, to be fair. I mean, that trend you could say started on January 10th about where you dip into that channel. We really started accelerating to higher prices. Essentially the beginning of February, that or thereabouts, I mean, you were at a 95 basically price point. In the beginning of February, we're sitting at 112, but keep it in mind, folks, you know, it's an art, not a science. Where exactly those trend lines fall? That would be to your discretion to some degree, right? But I'd say that's a pretty accurate trend line and you're chopped around at the top portion of it. You traded a little bit lower. So keep that in mind as you get a little bit of a pullback here, because don't forget the pullbacks that we got, even the one in July. That was quite a pullback, man. You got from 109.29 down to 104.64, almost five full points. But what'd you do after you got down there? You traded up 10. You traded up 10 full points in the dollar index from 105 to basically 115 in the span of about a month and a half, maybe even less than two months we'll call it. So we have the dollar index backing off a bit. You make it to the bottom portion of that trend line, maybe 110, 109, something like that on the dollar index. We got some news in the UK. We'll talk about that in a moment as it ties into currencies. We jump over to the Euro-US dollar right now. And again, obviously dollar pulling back, Euro getting a little bit of a pop, but pretty similar action in terms of a well intact channel line, folks. And the kicker here is that the upper portion of this channel line doesn't even get us back to parity right now. It doesn't even get us back to parity, right? Yeah, you could chop around to parity. You see how the tails have climbed above this channel line on a couple of occasions. But folks, if you to follow channels, these are pretty defined channel lines right now on a currency basis in terms of where you are. Now the pound-US dollar, that's its own animal, okay? I was talking about that potentially the pound was a little bit stronger than the yen-US dollar, but boy, that was before the breakout. That was before the tax cuts. You break out of that channel line to the downside. This tail is erroneous, okay? So disregard that. I think you got just below 104, was the real print there on the pound-US dollar on the day that we came back after the tax cuts. But nonetheless, look at what we've done, folks. All we've come, all we've done is come back to test that channel line. An ominous sign owed to our man, Bob Ross, let Bob Ross, gonna miss him. You come back and test that channel line, man. You start breaking lower. Watch out, folks, because that is a classic case of breaking out of the channel to the downside, man. You break out, you wait for the retest, that would be the sell. We'll see what happens as the UK tries to avoid a demise, but we'll see what happens in a big way. And let's jump over to that. So you have Liz Truss. She is backing off already so much for a strong start, man. They scrapped the 45% tax rate that had contributed to the market route, and yeah, a U-turn on the UK tax cuts. So this is what stemmed, this is what started the pound collapse, okay? Because you had tax cuts going on, you had tax cuts at a time of record inflation, leading to those to say, hey, you're giving tax cuts, you're flooding the economy with more money at a time of record inflation, that is a big problem. Nonetheless, we get it and we have listened is what she says. The plan announced just 10 days ago, okay, to scrap the 45% rate of income tax to become a distraction is how she put it. So you have some pound action on that. But yeah, I'd say it's a huge embarrassment in terms of just stepping in there. You come out with a big tax cut, market says, what are you doing, man? And we're gonna see how that plays out, folks. And there's the statement there. That's the chancellor of the ex-checker, I believe. Yes, it is. Yeah, and as they put it, the reversal of such a major policy just a month into their tenure will inevitably spark speculation about both trust and, is it Quartan? Quartang, that's how you pronounce it, their future. Tough to have any confidence, man, and the people leading your government as they jump in and bungle things so dramatically to kick things off of the market this morning or bouncing or bouncing a bit. Relatively near those lows still though, we're up by 1.1%, we'll be right back, folks. Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia, the Mount Todd Gold Project. Vista Gold just completed their feasibility study, resulting in a 7 million-ounce gold reserve. Vista Gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIBC Capital Market Assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing an accretive transaction. Vista Gold trades on the NYSE American and TSX under the ticker symbol VGC. Vista Gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at tfnn.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today, tfnn.com, educating investors. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. 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Hosted at Discord, TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, Tiger's Den. Available to all tigers and tigeresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We've got markets continuing to accelerate to higher territory right now. You're looking at S&P now at 43 points, 1.2%. NASDAQ 100, a little bit of a laggard right now. You're up by 9-tenths percent. Dow up 1.3 and the Russell approaching 1.7% at 1,700 right now. We jump back to notes and bonds as the run continues, even since we speak, right? You got the 10-year right now up. I mean, look at that pop since we came on the air. Yeah, that was 9-10. These are five-minute bars, folks. Even since I've been on the air, you got the 10-year up 9 ticks or something like that right now. And as we pull it over just to take a quick look in terms of where we are right now on yields, you're talking about a yield on the 10-year of 3.66%. 3.66%. Let me jump around. I'm gonna pull up the yields right now in terms of the lineup. Here we go. So what are we looking at? You have quite a little jump from where we were just Friday. The two-year right now, 4.1%. The 10-year right now, 3.66. We're approaching 4%, man. Even on the 10-year right now, the 30-year pushing 3.66%, a lot of talk in terms of real estate, right? With mortgage rates. Talking to my dad this weekend. He was over here hanging out with the grandson, with me. And of course, we're talking a little bit of business. Just markets, not even talking business. Because how can you not, man, with everything going on, right? With interest rates where they are. Yields where they are. I've been talking about it as well, man. If you have money, folks, that you're in a fixed income possibility in terms of whether it's retirement, something like that, yields, portion levels, you better be looking at them. And even on a checking account basis, there are gonna be some great deals with yields that we have not seen in some time, man. We're all used to getting nothing for the money in your checking account. And that is not the case right now, folks, with where we are. Short-term basis. One month, 2.75% is the one month. 30 days is all you gotta tie your money up for. So it's finally worth it, folks, to make sure that if you have cash in any capacity, make sure that it's earning that yield. Because the big banks are not gonna be giving you that yield, man. It's gonna be the banks that are competing, the online banks. I'll have to spend some time. Maybe we'll do a show on it completely. Because this is something that we have not seen in some time. In the days of 0%, 0% car loans, et cetera, they are gone for right now. We'll see what happens with the economy if they need to get into a cutting cycle at any time soon. But that is not here, folks, right now at all. Okay, let's shift to housing from that conversation. Home prices now posting biggest monthly drop since 2009. Now, what's remarkable here is, biggest monthly drop since 2009. You say, oh my goodness, what is the number? What are they dropping? These must be big numbers. They fell 0.98% in August from a month earlier following a 1.05% drop in July. Now, over a two month basis, you have housing prices dropping 2% as we have inflation up 8.5% or whatever it is, okay? So in that context, that should be alarming. Housing prices should not be dropping as an asset when you have the value of a dollar decreasing as is, right, inflation is raging. The two periods mark the largest monthly declines since January of 2009, but here's the thing, folks, okay? The market had completely collapsed by that point and was beginning to rebound. There was almost no opportunity over that last period of time because the market had been cleaned out completely. Some of those prices, folks, I think we're all aware of them because it was such a nationwide pandemic of pricing, pandemic, no pun intended in terms of what's going on right now, but it was a pandemic in the financial markets because it was so pervasive and it affected almost every single community in the country. I was not a homeowner at that time. I was renting, okay? But it still impacted every single community and that you were aware of it. I was just not in that period of my life yet to be fortunate in that degree at least and was okay in a renting capacity. And what did that do? That presented opportunity to be a buyer if you weren't in that market, okay? But from 2009, you're talking about a run that was slow even in the beginning, okay? In terms of there was still ample opportunity, whether it was 2012, 13, 14, right? Some of the prices that existed back then, mind-blowing to this day and age, but they don't become as mind-blowing when you look at the mortgage rates. Now here's what you have to wrap your brain around and if you solve this one, man, there is a lot of money and I'm trying to run the levels of depth that are necessary to figure out where the market goes in the housing market. It's facing some headwinds to put it lightly, okay? Now, we have rates decreasing today. That's gonna be a big factor in the housing prices, but let's just say we're looking at a mortgage rate of about 7.5% right now and I'll have to run the numbers, I will. But a mortgage rate of about 75, 7.5% right now, okay? I was looking at what a $500,000 mortgage will cost and I'll run these to be exact. I think it was something like $4,500 or $3,500. Whatever it is, folks, you have a 7.5% mortgage, right? So you have a whole decade, if not more. I mean, who is in a mortgage right now that is not vastly benefiting from their interest rate and I'm not talking about the last, everybody but the last three months as this thing has been rising, right? You probably shouldn't have made a decision at some point over the last three, four or five years maybe where you potentially refinanced to make sure you were in an interest rate that was what, 3% to 4%, something like that would be a realistic interest rate that many people could have got over an extended period of time but even three to four and a half percent interest rate ample time to lock yourself into that degree. People like paying off their houses too. So that's gonna be the people that maybe are still out there, right? But the point being is that who is gonna sell their house, man? If you have that type of a loan locked in because what you're doing is you're closing out all that benefit you get, right? You have a 30-year mortgage rate that's locked in well below what the market is at right now. That is gonna create an entire class of homeowners that are never gonna sell because it doesn't make sense, okay? They can rent if they need to if you're gonna sell because their cost basis is so low on a monthly basis payment that to replace that is impossible in this interest rate environment. So those people are taking out of the equation. So those people are never selling, okay? Well, that takes a dramatic amount of supply out of the market. If there's a dramatic supply taken out of the market, right? What should happen? That should cost prices to stay high relative to demand. Well, the other side of that equation though and this is part of the conversation I was having my dad this weekend send who's buying a house right now at 8% mortgage rate, man with the payment that that accumulates to and that's the tough part, man because no matter what you take that out it is a real hard one to stomach with mortgage rates pushing that limit. And I'm gonna go over it in a second folks we'll do the interest rate, you know? I mean, you're talking about, I think it is I'll pull up the calculator but I think you're talking about something I think it's 4,500 bucks and I won't I won't do it right now I'll pull it up during the break but I think it's about 4,500 bucks is what you're paying for a $500,000 mortgage which would basically mean if you're putting down 20% on a $620,000 house you're still left with that type of a payment on a monthly basis and then you have to add in taxes and insurance on top of that which is gonna be a dramatic degree on top of it it's translating into rent or mortgage rates budging in one way or the other and that's the level of debt that you have to go to solve that equation but we're getting some easing today as yields coming down a bit there's your 10 year we just hit 113.03 we were at 112.29 and you're talking about a yield right now in the 10 year of about 3.66% stay tuned folks we'll be back with the opening bell of the month of the quarter October 3rd, 9.30 we'll be back in 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banner on the front page of TFNN.com Welcome back folks we got the S&P's up 37 points right now with 36, 38 the one thing I will say folks you take a look at the S&P you put it on a daily basis man all we've done is trade back into the lowest folks that we had from June yes you've gotten a little bit of a bounce man but please be careful in this market because you know we have a potential channel line of some degree almost looks like a little bit of a cone to some degree where does that cone bring you back down to that's where you are on your way down to folks about 3,200 and the dicey thing of 3,200 man where are you trading back into pre-COVID levels 3,500 where excuse me 3,400 3,397 to be exact but where did we kick off the year in 2020 3,200 where did you base a bit towards the end of 2020 about 3,200 and when you take a look at the full Feminacci number from 2174 up to 4808 where's the 618 folks about 3,200 you see how that could line up there I feel a lot more comfortable buying this market near 3,200 than I am buying it when it's just coming into the prior lows of June at a pretty accelerated pace we get non-farm payroll numbers on Friday that'll be an interesting one folks as the data is going to determine a lot and it almost feels like you're hoping and I forget what the exact phrase is right but hope is not a plan or something like that if you find yourself hoping you're probably in trouble and that has a lot to do with sports and stuff like that and training and whatnot but it seems pretty hopeful that the data is going to start lining up when for so long it seems like the data has been doing its own thing being pretty elevated for longer than many people were hoping, right so who's to say that we're like about to turn the corner, okay rates may have a say in that S&Ps, 1,200 points almost off of the highs of 4,808 earlier just this year which is remarkable pulling back almost to pre-COVID levels after that full acceleration we're back to almost a 50% of the entire acceleration during COVID you have the NASDAQ 100, okay NASDAQ 100 remember 9,700 was the highest pre-COVID let's take a look on a Fibonacci basis where the NASDAQ 100 is yeah you are already through the 50% the 618 on the NASDAQ 100 about 10,500 almost gave it back already as we got to a low of 10,890 okay talking a little bit of mortgage rates so to get the exact numbers I was talking about first if you just Google mortgage rates you're looking at a 30er right there man 7.534 and you talk about some moves now 7.534 I was looking at it $500,000 is about 3,500 where I got 4,500 in my head is you add in taxes and insurance depending on where you are what kind of insurance and what kind of taxes you're paying let's just say that adds $1,000 in Florida we got an insurance problem right now okay so in my head I said taxes and insurance maybe that's $1,000 right now for Floridians it is that brings you up to 4,500 that's the just now to put that in context that's a $620,000 house let's say you're an investor even or if you're just a home buyer you put down 20% you put down 120,000 on that property okay that are there about some ballparking numbers that leads you to a $500,000 mortgage so you still have 120,000 down something like that okay $500,000 mortgage 7.5% 3500 you add in taxes and insurance that's 4500 even there's gonna be expenses right let's say you're buying this to rent it out or something like that because that is part of the equation here folks that it doesn't make sense to buy a property if you can't rent it out you don't even pay for the cost of buying that property those markets are aligned usually they get out of whack but they'll come back into agreement in some capacity that brings you up to 4,500 and change meaning you got to mow the lawn right you have to do this that et cetera as a landlord to some degree now what's crazy about this is 7.5 the run has been so quick okay that's 3,500 even at 4.5 folks it's a thousand dollars cheaper 2,500 was the difference so the run from 4.5 to 7.5 has basically meant that you have to get a thousand dollars more in rent a month just to make up for the cost of buying that mortgage it's crazy when you look at it in that context and we're sitting at 7.5 and we might be going higher folks because if the market persists which it very well may a lot of talk about inflation peeking out but guess what we have oil prices rising yet again today that's not gonna help right what if the offsets that are gonna take place and some of the other factors are now gonna be hurt by the price of crude yet again as we have crude up five dollars we've been helped a lot by the price of crude when it comes to the run we've had folks it's been a four month downward trend of the price of crude right that might not be the continuing trend so what happens if we get higher prices and just look at I'm gonna take this one off now we're actually almost sitting right where we were back in the highs of October of last year but just looking at the run we just had in terms of the impact that a bounce could have you're talking about $95 is the 382 and 100 is the 50 in terms of just accelerating from this higher trend this lower trend we get a bounce there those numbers are gonna contribute energy prices are gonna start contributing to rising prices on the CPI basis again maybe not on a core basis but we have a lot of static to get through in terms of really having numbers that are showing inflation is get down and if that doesn't happen where does the Fed go we're gonna find out Friday we get non-farm payrolls that'll be a big one to kick things off and we got market pulling back a little bit as we open let's jump into some of the charts we'll jump into the S&P that's a pretty quick give back about 15 S&P points over the last 15 minutes or so you get the NASDAQ 100 only positive by about four tenths percent right now 11,081 we'll get the Dow up 241 right now but look at that sell off inching towards 29,000 right now we talked about crude gold contract this morning up about $3 at 1675 when we jumped to the notes and bonds little bit of a give back from that spike high at 113.03 we're at 112.25 still up 23 ticks though on the 10 year see how the dollar index is doing right now on the open dollar index pretty tame action see how the pound is trading right now on their news you got a spike up to 1208 and as I talked about the beginning of this program be careful folks because all you're doing is trading right back into that channel line man you may be testing that for a lower trade on the pound US dollar and Euro US dollar right now sitting at about 97.5 and just kind of in the middle of its channel line the upper portion maybe approaching parity the lower portion maybe 94 pennies right now on the Euro US dollar all right let's jump around to some of the equities we got Tesla yeah slump and lower by 7% this morning for Tesla so the news out of Tesla this morning excuse me as I jump around deliveries disappoint due to a logistic snarl 7% wiped out like that more of its EVs were in transit at the quarter end is what they were saying they handed over 343,000 vehicles to customers the market was looking for 358,000 the stock traded down yeah and they missed on that they've delivered big batches of vehicles toward the end of each quarter but guess what they missed the mark this time as production volumes continue to grow it's becoming increasingly challenging to secure vehicle transportation capacity and at a reasonable cost during these peak logistic weeks they're dealing with problems folks in terms of logistics it's a continuing trend that's gonna impact prices right in Q3 we began transitioning to a more even regional mix of vehicle builds each week which led to an increase in cars in transit at the end of the quarter yeah and they're obviously closely watched and there's their miss in terms of coming in at 344 but still decent numbers Tesla down 7% stay tuned 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the technology around us is changing every day with so much happening it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information paperwights investment newsletter the technology insider is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology that shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future David White has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology his weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks as well as entry prices target prices and stops to set for each trade Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every Friday with updates throughout the week you can get the technology insider at tfnn.com for only $37.50 sign up for David's newsletter the technology insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer try it risk-free today with our 30 day money back guarantee tfnn educating investors till the S&P 500 continue to climb for bold trades on US large cap stocks in either direction trade SPXL SPUU or SPXS directions daily S&P 500 bull and bear leveraged ETFs direction leveraged ETFs an investor should carefully consider a funds investment objective risks, charges and expenses before investing a funds prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a funds prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit directioninvestments.com a funds prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ welcome back folks we get the S&Ps giving it up a bit right now we're only up by 23 points we were just coming into the opening bell at a price of about 36.45 and we were just down at 36.17 so you're talking about almost 30 points that gave up a little bit of a bounce right now we'll see if that plays out NASDAQ 100 only up by 35 points right now as the NASDAQ 100 we just accelerated from 11,000 let's get the exact high 135 yeah down about 100 points pretty quickly right there gonna jump over to a little crypto right now Ms. Kardashian she will be paying about $1.3 million is the number let's get the number as we pull it up as we jump around oh come on I had it up didn't wait there we go yeah over a million dollars so she got paid 250 grand to be pumping crypto not surprising she's gonna pay 1.26 million she's worth multiple billion that's basically penny something dollar for nothing and you're telling me there hasn't been anything else she's been paid for but I do have the exact I think I did right where I just throw it up in terms of the tweet that she had up there hold on I got it here we go are you guys into crypto it's not financial advice but here's this pump and dump that I'm gonna feed you guys for getting paid a quarter million dollars and you know be careful whenever you hear anything like this folks of course she's getting paid or has some type of kit back you know she's not out there doing this out of the kindness of her heart Ethereum max a few minutes ago Ethereum max burned 400 trillion tokens 50% of their admin wallet giving back to the entire Emax community so that's sound a little spammy folks right who would listen to her well unfortunately man many I think because what does she got for followers man they're up in like the hundreds of millions right something like that let's see I'm even Googling it 318 million I think is the number pretty crazy 250,000 dollars let's listen to the dollar per person you're reaching right to that degree so that was the tweet nonetheless and she'll be paying 1.26 million dollars but buyer beware shouldn't be too surprising in the crypto land man pretty pretty crazy that you can pay her 250 grand and I'm sure they made out with it I'm sure it was worth it which is crazy to it all all right what else do I have pulled up here in terms of talking about oil let's talk a little bit of oil so OPEC they're on the verge of a quote unquote historic cut somebody was saying a million barrels potentially the considering an output cut of more than a million barrels a day there you go that's where I read it according to an OPEC source the OPEC ministers are not going home to Austria for the first time in two years to do nothing so there's going to be a cut of some historic kind that's one partner in an energy firm analyst or whatnot more than a million barrels we have somebody here you have the same gentleman talking about maybe around 500,000 nonetheless you're looking at a cut folks you're looking at a cut when oil is chopping around at a price point of about 85 bucks but there you're seeing the run right now this morning up to 84, 25 up almost five dollars from where it was last Friday and boy the geopolitical news coming out of Russia is not good at all man in terms of the rhetoric going on over there the state sponsored rhetoric going on at rallies not good at all if the markets weren't crashing and yields weren't at 7.5 percent for a 30 in mortgage and inflation wasn't at 8.5 percent right now the risks of war breaking out would be highlighted more throughout what is going on folks because this weekend seems like things have ratcheted up in the last week or so in terms of Putin's language the language in Russia so let's hope that's not the case but to a market degree boy that is some sketchy action going on if war does really break out to a real degree beyond even what's going on right now was it with anyway S&Ps up by 36 right now 36, 37 let's jump around to what else I had pulled up here what do we got going on we talked about housing yeah how about Peloton seems like a good idea in terms of they are branching out to kind of some of the mainstay plays of bike makers down to 666 this stock man up 1.3 percent which is basically nothing though for this equity they actually dropped to below where they were on Thursday and you want you want to load to be afraid of folks 666 for Peloton what if I told you man what if I told you when Peloton was kicking off 2021 that by the next calendar year the stock was gonna be at 666 man for Peloton I would stay away from the stock folks they're gonna have their fitness bikes in 5400 US tells well that's great they're already talked about they're selling the bikes at retailers okay but the only way that I see that company having any future is having the recurring revenue that comes with the subscriptions plans that they would sell that's what I never could get my mind around is why people were buying bikes that were so expensive that then required you to pay a monthly subscription pan that people are always I at least you know you want to make sure you're using the subscriptions you sign up for and to pay so much for the privilege to subscribe to a monthly recurring plan that basically allows you to use the bike that you just bought for two thousand dollars yeah but nonetheless the stock interesting trades lower and they're putting their bikes in hotels I mean they're making deals here you know they're making deals to have their bikes in more places it's a far shift from then when they were just gonna be selling bikes to everybody getting them on they're recurring revenue and so yeah we'll see how that one plays out credit swiss man I could spend a show on that one market turmoil deepens after the CEO memo backfires on friday I would say so I think it was down as much as 12% yep there it is are trading to a record low that values the firm at less than ten billion dollars so what one headline out here saying you know if some city analysts talking about if you're bold enough it might be the buy there but boy you gotta be careful when you're talking about capital structures of a bank while acknowledging the bank was at a critical moment quote unquote he pledged to send employees regular updates until the firm announces its new strategic plan on october 27th and at the same time again center on talking points to execs dealing with clients who brought up the credit default swap according to people knowledge of the matter the swaps now price and roughly 23% chance the bank defaults on its bonds within five years that's the number you want to pay attention to folks because that's the percentage where people are putting their money behind how they feel and that is a level of default within five years it is pretty drastic for a bank like credit swiss man watch out for that one all right what do we have it there let's jump around uh... some of the other stocks i talked about a credit swiss tesla robin hoods closing down some of their offices there in trouble man robin hood yeah down 1.5% that's your weekly there's a daily and you're the same price you were trading at basically in january man for robin hood crypto was their deal folks in crypto is not going to be the same as it was prior uh... when they were at their mainstay so box and they're getting a little bit of a pop-up 6.4% or some of these equities man uh... morgan sanley upgrade the cloud computing company to overweight from equal weight pointing to strong execution in favorable competitive landscape not a bad looking chart compared to a lot of other equities this year you jumped up to thirty-three but you're basically flat we kicked off the year uh... after you accelerated higher to the better part of twenty twenty one all right let's jump around some of the fact stocks as we come into the break amazon up about half percent apple the big dog up fairly by about six-tenth percent right now tesla on their tough news down about seven percent two forty six eighty folks with one more segment right back tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tigers and hosted at 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page of tfnn.com welcome back folks we get the s&p's up by 32 points chopping around a bit in both directions on the opening so far a couple of the points I wanted to make that I was looking at so JP Morgan talking about yields right they're worried about who is going to buy all the treasuries the headline they're worried about who's going to buy all the bonds they remain concerned about the lack of structural demand for treasuries so this is not just talking about you and me in fact they say all of the three main buyers of U.S. government debt commercial banks foreign governments and of course the federal reserve itself appeared to have stepped away from the market well some of the retreat is to be expected as the bank's taper its balance sheet the scale of the shift in appetite is still noteworthy they write the treasury holdings have dropped by 180 billion year-to-date as the central bank embarks on quantitative tightening meanwhile commercial banks collective holdings of treasuries have fallen 60 billion after growing more than 700 billion in 2020 and 2021 foreign governments have also stepped back with holdings have been dropped 50 billion over the past six months the point is folks yields maybe still going up okay you're seeing a little bit of a reprieve today but yeah that that is worth noting okay and Morgan Stanley Wilson he's been a bear so keep that in mind the Fed pivot pivot won't end profit pain that's an interesting one because many people looking for the spot in terms of when the Fed may pivot but if global m2 and u.s. dollars continues to fall at this pace it does not bode well for stocks in terms of that's the year-over-year percentage change versus the current pace of 750 billion dollars per month in green and the s&p 500 and yellow you see the catch up that's necessary man for the s&p so yields that's an interesting conversation man as we get a little bit of a pullback and we're just back to where we were in the beginning of friday right now in the 10 year and yeah the volatility in yields man that is indicative of a shaky market folks that's the one i keep my eye on stay tuned folks we got our man basal Chapman he's coming up next with the tiger technicians hour of course we have our man Steve Rhodes at 11 o'clock fast market at 12 our man Larry Pezzavento live at one o'clock Dave White at two when my dad Tom O'Brien live from three till four thanks so much folks i appreciate you starting your trading day off with me and stay tuned we got basal up next have a great monday everybody