 I'd like to talk story with John Waihe and today we are actually going to look at our upcoming political season. I mean we're right now in the beginning of the state legislature, we are in the beginning of the 2012 2022 election season, and we were blessed this weekend with a few polls from our star advertiser. Now I have to say that they don't always get things right, but they love doing whatever it is that they do going out there and taking polls about what people think and so forth. And the interesting thing about all of this is I have as our guest today, Professor Colin Moore from the University of Hawaii. And as those of you who have watched my show before, you know that he's been a regular guest and he's one of these guys who can like, you know, throw the bones out there and see the future and the political events and the rest of it. So, that we have with us again the director of public policy at the University of Hawaii, welcome Colin. Thank you so much for agreeing to join us this time. Pleasure to be here. It's always fun to talk about polls. Well, you know, and that's the whole purpose of this and so I have it. I just happened to have the star advertiser for this past Sunday or yesterday, and the headlines were that the poll was about the various candidates in the race and just Well, let me just before I get to what was your impression of all of this. What does the polls tell us. Well, the clearest result is that Josh Green is the candidate to win, or the candidate to beat, I should say, or the candidate to lose. I should say, yeah, exactly. With 58% of people saying that if the Democratic primary were held today and again this was a poll of likely Democratic voters. They vote for Josh Green so that that's a pretty extraordinary result I think at this stage in the campaign. And what did, what did the, what did Kurt Caldwell and Vicki have, I think. Caldwell was at 11 and Cayetano, Vicki Cayetano was at eight. So, and there's 23% of voters said they were they were undecided. So it's a pretty big gap I mean you're talking about an enormous gap between green and his closest competitor and really Caldwell and Cayetano are within the margin of error so it's hard to say who's, you know, who's in second and who's in third there. I don't know about that to me was that Vicki actually pulled about the same as Kurt and Kurt's been around a long time. Exactly. I mean, and so here's how I look at this which is that if you're a Kirk Caldwell. This is really bad news voters already know who you are you're not trying to establish name recognition. And you're down at 11%. If you're Vicki Cayetano there's room to grow now only 23% of people are undecided of course you know some voters who say they're voting for green could move but a lot of them don't know who Vicki Cayetano is they might remember she was first lady but for a candidate like her there's room to gain to grow your base I think it's it's much harder if you're a well known figure to persuade people who know you and aren't supporting you to come back into your camp I think I don't know how you feel about that. Well, I tell you. I actually experienced that when I ran. That's true you know better than anybody when I read for governor and the Democratic primary I mean the numbers were very similar to what you see out there for for Josh Green and for Vicki. And nobody knew who I was but as you know, the, the advertiser was wrong. And, you know, one of the curious things, which I didn't, I haven't checked but I mean, I wonder how many times the advertiser was right with their actually called the real winner. Whenever if when he gave challenge to Abercrombie I'm not sure what that poll looked like. He gave was behind ever. Yeah, yeah, the first time you know and yeah. And so that you know this doesn't tell us anything except where it was the day that they took the poll but still sure. I'm really surprised that. Josh is doing as well as he's doing. You know, but I think the pandemic really helped him don't you. It absolutely did and this poll shows this a little bit. As I recall the, you know, his approval rating for handling the pandemic was was even higher than his general approval rating and, and this is sort of unique I think the Hawaii because you could imagine on the mainland. Yeah, who really were associated with the covert response who've been punished for that. But here it's helped I think it even helped Governor egale a little bit. If you look at it made him look better don't you. Yeah, yeah, polls. In fact, that's what we're going to get on is the fact that the polls also had some numbers for governor egale and for Mayor blanche audience. It seems like they seem to have done. Well, I don't know. I didn't understand the body article actually to be real what, because usually there's a kind of a, what do you call it, like a honeymoon. Yeah. I agree with you I was surprised his numbers were low. I mean there's still people who don't, who don't recognize them higher than some of the other figures, but he's, he's, he's right around where Governor egale wasn't and usually usually you're right you do get this honeymoon what what I think might be going on is a crisis like that this whoever is at the top whoever is the chief executive is being punished I mean there are people who think that David egale should be less strict there are people who think Rick bland Giardi should be more strict and they kind of get all the blame for people who are upset with the state's coven response and, you know, being in the lieutenant governor's position is often kind of the sweet spot because you can take credit for things but you're not, you don't often get the blame. When people are just thinking about the state's overall function and response. But once again, where's the honeymoon. You know, yeah. What do you think's going on there I was surprised to I thought his numbers would be much better. I thought I thought the mayor would be much better I think that you know people would have said, oh something news happening in the light. And yet, what this makes me think is I wonder how much of Kurt's problems were not necessarily connected to his work as mayor, which people may not have been that unsatisfied with as much as his problems with the ongoing federal investigations. I, I think that's a big part of it, and the recent arrests just reminded people of that if they'd forgotten. If they blamed him for some of the the kloha scandal than these recent arrests. I'm delighted that back in the news and his connection with the three folks who are under investigation so I'm sure that contributed a fair bit, but even then it's still, it's still remarkably low and it may just be a combination of those two factors. He's really associated with the rail, and then you have a couple of these scandals and I think it's just really hard to get out from under that. It's interesting to me because the of the major candidates that the person that is these affected by incumbency is body. And so you got the eka you got Kurt Caldwell, even to a certain extent, vicky kaitano. You know, there's no doubt that some people who either like or dislike her husband, maybe playing into into people's perceptions. Nevertheless, I thought, you know, that the after the last election that budget it would be sure doing a lot better. Because he won so decisively if you remember I think he won in almost every district except for one or two so it was a, it was a decisive victory and I thought that would carry over more I completely agree. And it seemed and actually in all fairness. I don't think he's made a, well, first of all I think he's made a necessarily wrong decision but he definitely hasn't made in my opinion, unpopular decision. I agree, I can't think I was trying to think of that and I can't think of anything that was really unpopular or really controversial. I think Rick's been on the right side of most issues. Yeah, we'll we'll see. Iggy is Iggy. I don't think I, I don't know what impact I know that to people that people who credit company Iggy with with, you know, positively, generally speak about his role in the in the pandemic. I mean, it's very, very clear that he gets priority was to go along with science and help first. But, you know, when I saw the numbers I was thinking to myself. I wonder if there was no pandemic if he would have the same rating, you know, it's just sort of a, you know, this is where it is. Yeah, you know, I, he is doing a little bit. I mean, as you said, I mean the pandemic. I mean, the pandemic helped him and it's he is doing a little bit better than the numbers actually were at before the pandemic they were, they were a little lower than than they are now so I think that, you know, people, people complained a lot about the governor but I think there's also a lot of people who were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt I mean you look at the number of people who said they were, they were neutral about the governor I think there's a sense now that people have really piled on to EGA and he hasn't done that bad of a job, particularly in COVID and so they're, you know, they're, they're, they're a little less critical, and I think a lot of it is about the pandemic and you know not some of the other more notorious problems like the you know, missile missile alerts issue and things like that. Yeah. Well, you know, if nothing else that got him name recognition. National recognition. National recognition. I got to tell you though. As I said, I wish that they had done a poll on the legislature, but people thought about the legislature doing this period and doing the pandemic and because there's been a lot of reaction from the community. You know, the closeness of the legislature the fact that, and there's valid health reasons for closing down the Capitol building but there's been kind of a diss I don't know I sense a distance with the voters and their they're legislator that maybe might not have quite existed before I mean there was always, you know, send the rest was home except my rest. But this time around it just sort of like indifference. I think so too there's not I've been surprised at the lack of interest they've had to try to bring people back into the Capitol even if they had to be, you know show their vaccination card just like you do in a restaurant and even if they limited the number of people testifying. I think don't you think it creates a different dynamic. I mean I would imagine you don't have people sitting there right in front of you. It's different you're more removed you might make different decisions. I think the problem with that though is that it tends to make. I think an electric official feel safe. Yeah, so you don't necessarily want to change things you know you don't necessarily want to have open government it's like passing an open records law for everybody but or open meetings like for everybody but yourself. It is like what do you do you know. Well, here's the thing though. The lieutenant governor's race, or, except for, while they're two. Well, keep on me me I ran before. And he seems to. I didn't expect you would thought that he would have been done a little bit better I mean he did come very close to winning the measure or not very close but he was competitive. Well he was he beat Colleen Hanabusa so he was in the primary yeah. I think that he was only at, you know, in this poll 8% and you know again everyone's kind of clumped together because we statistically we can't really say much. Much of anything meaningful but I thought he would be better he was the last most recent person to run an island wide race he had a lot of support, a lot of name recognition. I think it's likely that he's also being hurt by the fact that Roy Amamiya was arrested I mean just the fact that they share the same name that's, it's not fair they're different people but I think there's maybe a little bit of that going on. You know, Jill Takuta of course ran before and she she barely lost to Josh Green last time. And in this poll she was at the top but not, not that much. Yeah. You know, she's not, she's not, she didn't get Josh Green type numbers. No. You know, and what Ikaika Anderson I expected him to do, as well as he did, which is, you know, around second middle of the pack. Yeah. The interesting person to me was Sherry Minoa McNamara. McNamara, yeah. Yeah. That's, that's what I said when I was talking to the paper is that if, if I think if there's any candidate who would have been thrilled to get these numbers it should be Sherry Minoa McNamara because you know what is a poll like this do I mean we know they're going to change and it's only this moment in time picture but well I mean you, you've run before and I'm sure you can, you can, you'd agree with this. It gives a, you know, it gives your campaign a shot in the arm all of a sudden donors are calling again if they you know now that they see your viable. I got a couple of questions, you know, like first of all, how does these polls affect the, you know, the effect politics in Hawaii and to what extent, and to whether or not so many of these so called Democrats are actually Republicans looking for a different alternatives in the press but I think we are about ready to take a break here. So when we come back, think about those and we'll get right into it and then some of the other issues that the, the star advertiser was bringing. I'm Prince Dykes, the host of the Prince of Investment, the financial literacy and business show that comes to you live every other Thursday at 4pm, Hawaii time. Make sure you subscribe to us on YouTube and wherever you can catch podcasts. I'll see you there. Welcome back to Talk Story with John Whitehead and our special guest Professor Colin Moore from the University of Hawaii. We are just mining his mind and public policy and we were talking about the question which was on my mind when we went into break was what how much do you think what impact to these polls have on politics. If I was looking at running against Josh Green, what do I do now, and what does Josh Green do, you know, what's the, what's the after story. Sure. I mean, and I think, you know, politicians love love polls and are obsessed by polls probably probably sometimes more than they should be but I think that the first thing it does is if if you're running and you know you're behind or you're a first time candidate getting a decent poll is is a great advertisement to donors because for the most part people are going to give money in politics. They want to back a winner. They want their money to mean something if they just think you're a hopeless case. It's going to be really hard outside your close friends for anyone to give you money so I mean we'll use the example of Sharon Menor McNamara of course who has her connections from the business community but she's a first time candidate and all of a sudden in this poll, she's at 7%, which for someone might not be good but for someone like her I think is a great result ahead of Sylvia Luke. And so then you can say to your donors, look, I'm a viable candidate you can support me I think it, it even people who read this in the newspaper how do they interpret it I think that no voters to some degree like to back winners and so you know they might reconsider a candidate who got a pretty decent poll result and that you know that has this effect of, you know, in some ways, people who get good poll results you know there's sort of a bandwagon effect sometimes. Well, one thing is that I when you look at the candidates. I mean, she is the business person's candidate, as far as the governor's race is concerned. I don't know how much of that rubs off and picky. But, you know, this is a unfortunate. It's not really like heresy but this is unfortunately a single party state and I really think that's not. That's not a good thing, frankly, we need a, we need the loyal opposition to challenge the people that do in the majority. I wonder how much of Sherry, you know, McNamara support and even Vicki Kai Thomas. Our people are the conservative wing of the Democratic Party which in maybe other states might have been part of the Republican Party. I think that's, I think there's a lot of that I mean we know that there's a, you know, even our party if you look at the people who are in leadership in the legislature, for example, they're not the sort of far left wing progressives you might see in the Democratic states. I mean, and so I think there are more conservative even voters who identify as Democrats here more than perhaps in California. And they're looking for a candidate like Sherry menor McNamara Vicki Kaetano, you know, even in their in, in what little campaign communication we've seen. You know, Sherry menor McNamara in particular is always talking about small business small business small business. That's where she comes from in the Chamber of Commerce right. Exactly. So there's a constituency for that. I think I think their big business have, you know, always finds a way to make an alliance with the existing establishment. Whether it was the radical Democrats of yesterday or today I mean there was a way that they all, but small business is sort of a sector out by itself and and and feels that way. Yeah, you know, and so they really become the mainstream people like the Chamber of Commerce and the like and so all politicians give lip service to that sector like they would do any other sector but then they don't the small business people don't actually feel it, you know, like really for me and so forth. I just think that what's the elephant in the room of course is the fact that one a candidate that's been mentioned recently for governor hasn't even wasn't in the poll. So if you were Congressman Kai Kahele looking at these polls. What, what would be your analysis I mean what would you think about. Sure, well, if, if I were Congressman Kahele, I would be concerned by what I saw from this poll with Josh Green because you might want to look at this poll and see well where where can you make inroads and what would Caldwell and Cayetano voters could they be Kahele voters. I think that's, there are always some but I don't think that's where he could draw a lot of support so. So it might be the best thing he might be he might be the best thing he might be most happy about the fact that he wasn't in the poll. Yeah, well I think I'm sure he's glad because he wouldn't I mean, if he would, it would, it would end the speculation if he did real poorly but you know the thing that green brings to the table that we don't often seen as see is that of course he was a neighbor island senator to is a lot of support on the big island a lot of support among Hawaiians I mean the sort, the sort of groups that would be core Kahele supporters, if he runs he's going to have to fight. Josh Green for for those supporters people already say they're green voters and that's tough to pull off. Okay, though I'm going to move on really quickly through some of the there was a poll that came out today and it showed that the, at least the voters in Hawaii. People are very upset about the Red Hill and the like, and you got any thoughts about that phenomenon. I mean, I was pretty expected with this. I that's what I expected I mean I don't think the Navy has a lot of friends on the island these days. I mean, it's overwhelming in support of draining the tanks. You know, it's going to be, what's going to be interesting to see I think is how the candidates navigate this because they want to be critical about this issue. But you have to be careful when you're talking about the military in general because we have so many people who work for the Navy, you know so many veterans so I think this will. I think as you said everyone has to be for draining the tanks and this Red Hill crisis you won't be able to get elected if you're not. But you can't be anti military I think still or I don't know how you feel about that you think of this is, is this permanently damaging. Well, I think that it's precisely what you say I mean you've got to be on the side of the Hawaii residents if you're going to represent Hawaii or be in the office here. On the other hand, you got to be aware that probably Hawaii has more veterans per capita in those places and the like. But I don't think people see the same. I might be wrong but my sense is that people don't necessarily see what's happening at Red Hill as a military thing. They just kind of think of it as sloppy gobbled. Yeah. And the real critical issue is, I don't think our congressional delegation can walk a line on this issue. No, it's over. The paper also mentioned that they would be taking other polls so I thought it might be fun if you know we can sort of guess that some of these things. One thing one of the things that's coming out tomorrow and we'll see whether who's right or wrong. Hello the stadium, having, I don't know what the question will be, but you know, it's going to be a question then ask people, are you in favor of the whole of rebuilding the law of the state. Got any idea. Do you know if they're going to give them an alternative? Are they going to ask them about building up Manoa instead? I don't know. I don't know. But I'll be very curious to see where the people, there's a lot of nostalgia for a lot. I think people are going to be for it. I really do. Because of that reason, because of that. Yeah. And then they go ahead. Oh, and I was going to say they're not really probably not going to present the costs. I mean, an alternative, would you like this or would you like all of the land to go to affordable housing then you might get a little bit of a different response. What's the most of the last day would be important issues in Hawaii. So what do you think is the most important issue besides pandemic. Oh, the cost of living housing for sure. Consistently. And I think, I don't know what the question is going to be but I'm sure it's going to be about. You know, do you think the state is doing enough for affordable housing or can you afford to live here anymore I think something along those lines because that's always the number one issue when you when you You know, it's all my years of politics and it depends. It depends. I think I think I agree with you right now I think the affordable housing cost of living. But in the past, the issue that would challenge affordable housing as the leading reason for the great rise in the cost of living was transportation. Oh, sure. So, and having to drive in from west side to go to work in the east side vice versa. And it seems to me like to a certain extent the pandemic may have lessen the issue. So, so okay let's go down the line. Alright, Josh is the guy to be. We're real quick. I forgot to talk about. I think Sylvia is one of these politicians who is better known in the legislator. Yeah, the public and people don't realize how smart she is how you know how strong she is but except in her district. But she shouldn't have any trouble raising money because what is it. I don't, you know, it's one of these questions where you've got to kind of raise from time to time and I don't have the right answer. But an incumbent, powerful incumbent always has the ability to raise more funds than any challenger coming into the race. And they can be raising them for years like a lot of these folks have and just build up these big war chests. So here we are. Okay, so we got Josh green is the guy to be. We got the lieutenant governors to still up in the, up in the air in the issues maybe. Well, you know, Ben Kaitano, myself and Neil Abercrombie believe that we should build a state stadium at the university and forget about doing a lot of it, but we'll see. Yeah, I think you're right. I think it's either going to be the cost of living or the cost of house. Maybe last words. I need trends, you see any trends going on in this. You know, I don't say any trend and that's what I was interested when I read the polls, I see a lot of data about present perceptions but I really didn't see any underlying trends they do. I didn't I mean these you know what's interesting is these for the, the general issues this isn't so different from what we saw pre pandemic I mean the polls that they took in 2019. You know I think I think a lot of this is similar yeah. So we are over. So I want to thank you Colin for coming on with me and just you know every once in a while. People like myself, who are addicted to political things, you know, kind of like to have fun and just discuss it so thank you for doing that thank you for dodging me. It's always a pleasure to have you. Sorry, but John why here.