 Welcome traders to another Tick Mill earnings report preview with me Patrick Monday before we jump into today's report as always we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer I'm most pertinent to today's presentation fact that the views expressed by me are solely mine They're not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe limits Okay, let's jump into today's report and we are looking at Google Google set to announce after the New York closed today looking for an EPS of $1.29 on revenue of $70.4 billion Google faces the toughest comp of the year as Q2 2021 gross revenue grew 62% year over year albeit off the pandemic hit Q2 2020 growth of minus 2%. According to a Bloomberg report Google plans to slow hiring amid a possible economic recession Bank of America recently cut its estimate for Google stock citing expectations of the US economy's growth slowing and they are looking to lower Q2 consolidated net revenue by 1% to 58.2 billion from 58.6 billion and lowering 2023 revenues by 6% to 269 billion they're looking to lower the Q2 EPS to $24.80 from $25.99 as they cut other income due to potential investment write downs for 2023 EPS key for valuation is being lowered by estimates of by 7% to $121.27 from $129.83 as they assume more expense growth moderation Google reported first quarter earnings and revenue that missed Wall Street targets in Q1 Alphabet generated 80% of revenue from Google advertising followed by 10% from Google other 9% from cloud computing and 1% from other investments investments continue to ramp up for the company Alphabet expects a meaningful increase in 2022 capital spending reflecting investments in computer servers and in internet data centers and construction of office space Google's board of directors has authorized 70 billion in additional stock repurchases in the first quarter the company repurchased 13 billion of Google stock versus 13.5 billion in the December quarter and 12.6 billion in the September quarter helping Google stock has been a rebound in digital advertising as the coronavirus emergency fades Google aims to be a bigger player in e-commerce such as in online travel but macroeconomic concerns such as growing currency headwinds pose a problem for the online search giants and a new Alphabet chief executive Sundar Pachai Google has improved transparency Google began disclosing cloud computing financial metrics with its fourth quarter report in fiscal 2020 but the cloud business has yet to turn profitable in the first quarter of 2022 cloud business reported operating loss of 931 million versus 974 million loss a year earlier Google's cloud business plans to raise prices for some services in October okay so let's take a look at some of the statistical trading patterns around Google share price earnings releases the Google shares have moved higher in the immediate aftermath of earnings 7 out of 12 previous reports on average the stock has moved up 2.8 percent in the first day of trading after the company reported earnings based on the previous 12 earnings releases Google is more likely to trade higher one day after earnings for an average gain of 0.1 percent on average the stock has moved higher 1.2 percent one week after earnings it's from a volatility perspective what are the options traders pricing in well they're pricing in a 7 percent move on the earnings release however the stock has only averaged a 4.8 percent move in recent quarters so from a flow and sentiment perspective what can we glean there well there's been notable buying 9,081 contracts of the 115 core expiring this Friday however options order flow sentiment in general has been bearish investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 47 percent expecting your earnings beats Google share prices drifted down 5.8 percent post its last earnings announcement using the last 12 quarters of data the average drift between earnings is about 3.7 percent okay so let's take a look at the charts now and see if we can identify any near-term trading opportunities after the after the earnings announcement and we're looking here at the weekly and the daily chart you can see on the weekly time frame we're in this bearish channel and we can identify potential five-wave sequence here to the downside with a wave four high at the 120 level that gives us a minimum downside of a five equals one objective at $93.86 moving to the daily time frame we can see consolidating here bearish flag pattern and so what I will be looking for now is whilst we hold that 114.50 as resistance on the upside I'll be looking for a break now through the 106 level to engage on the short side looking to take out the year-to-date lows at 102.50 targeting that 93.94 level now from there I will be certainly paying attention to the price action if we get a decent bullish reversal there on the daily or the weekly time frame that could suggest we have a nice tradable local low in place and then we could be thinking about a move back up into the high volume area at $1.14 any loss at this stage of that 93.94 handle would have us trading down to the the weekly high volume low down at $87.91 as that next downside inflection point so set up this stage is bearish and really can't get constructive on the google stock unless we take out this weekly descending trend line on a closing basis as always trade us plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage all this until next time thanks very much