 Everybody, welcome to the New Year's Christmas Eve edition. Thanks for stopping by and Merry Christmas and happy New Year's everybody. We will not be having doing any videos tomorrow since it's Christmas, but today we're gonna go over a couple of things. First, we're gonna talk about is the market overheated? And second, we have to do a giveaway, which I promise everybody, so I better make sure I actually follow through with my promises. So if you stay to the end, we're gonna be giving away a couple of different passes for Benji Bananas. It's the web three game that we talked about, a couple of times over the last week or so. So we'll do that at the very end and I'll draw and give away those passes so you can earn some free tokens. But this is probably why you're here. And you're here because you're taking a look at the market and you're thinking to yourself, wow, things are really going up pretty high and that's true. So are we overheated? Well, we'll take a look at some indicators. So the first thing, of course, our market cap is still, if we take a look at the market, it's still 1.76 trillion. It hasn't really buoyed up that much. I mean, over the last month, yes, obviously it has, but over the last week, it's probably been around that 1.65, 1.7, somewhere around there, so pretty good. The big news, of course, everybody talking about is Solana has flipped over BNB. And yesterday it was tight. They were going back and forth. But as of today, you're looking at, I mean, Solana pulls ahead with over six or $7 billion more than what Binance Chain is. So I don't think there's gonna be two minutes flipping back and forth unless something catastrophic happens to Solana and we'll see if I can actually catch up with Tether. But to catch up with Tether, it's gotta do essentially a two X from right now because it's at 47 billion and Tether's at 91 billion. Magic, internet money, but are we overheated? And if we take a look, as far as like the market itself, are we overheated? We have to take a look at the four year cycles. Now on this channel, you guys know I'm a big believer in it because it still holds to be true. And we can just see as a quick refresher for people who are new or maybe are just kind of like basical and maybe not thinking about it. In 2012, now of course, Bitcoin coming into existence in 2009, right? Genesis Block, White Paper 2008, that was all because of the financial disaster that was the Great Recession back in those in that day and timeframe. But in 2012, we had our first halving with the amount that it's actually being mined by Bitcoin miners is actually halved. And of course it's caused a little bit of stress in the system, but it is great because it is deflationary. And then of course on the next year after every single time we've had a halving, we had an all-time high, that happened in 2013. And after we have an all-time high, what happens? Things get overheated because the technology has not caught up and there is not massive, massive adoption. I know people will say, hey, Rob, Bitcoin is really popping off and people are using all of the place. Sure, but not like what you would think. People are owning it and they are treating it as whatever they believe it is today. Is it a hedge against inflation? Is it a peer-to-peer transaction? Is the White Paper supposed to be? Is it gold 2.0? Whatever you believe it is, that's what it is. But as far as like mass adoption, I don't think we're at the billion mark yet as people are using it every single day. So we get a dip because of the reason we just talked about. Then of course in 2015 there's a reset and then we go back into a halving, not up in 2016, 2017 when I first got in, we had an all-time high. What happened after that? Technology didn't catch up. 2018 we have a dip. Then we have a reset. 2020 we had a halving, all-time high, which is where a lot I think of people who are watching this video are. This is when you guys came in at an all-time high in 2021. Don't worry, we'll have another one of those. Because in 2022 we had a massive dip and it's amazing between the top was roughly November 9th, 2021 for Bitcoin. Not for all, it's for Bitcoin itself. In 2022, the low was roughly November 9th, 2022. It took roughly exactly a year and it was the same thing in 2017. So we get a big dip in 2023. We get a reset year where things are kind of jumbled apart. And in 2024 we'll go into another halving. So if we took a look at that, I just wanted to reference that for what we're gonna go over. But every Sunday, well usually, not every single Sunday, I try to take a look at what has been going on with just dollar cost averaging. And I just want to show people how it worked. We've talked about dollar cost averaging, we call it value cost averaging at lump sum. And a couple of weeks ago we took a look at lump sum and of course it beat out dollar cost averaging if you would do it at specific times. Obviously in November 2021, if you lump sum, not a great time. But of course, if you would've lump sum November 2022, congratulations, you're up massively. Good luck timing that. Anyhow, so if we take a look at this, if we take a look at this, and we're gonna see here that yeah, we've got what I want to do was do on September 1st, 2023 and just dollar cost average multiple different altcoins. And what we did is we did Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, Cardano, Avalanche, that's my grandson right there. Hello Gabe. Avalanche, Doge, Polkadot, Tron, and Chainlink. And we took a look at Bitcoin as well. And what we wanted to do was we wanted to see how we would do. And why did I pick September 1st? Well, it was because I actually thought of this idea around May or June, I kind of got around to it in September. But when we did this, if we take a look at it historically, what's been happening, we can see that September is the worst month and not just for the crypto market, but for the traditional markets as well. So in September, we had, I think it was 10, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10. So out of 13 years, 10 of those years were red years and not just little red years, like big red years, or better, excuse me, big red months for those years. So I thought to myself, well, September would be a good time to start, because I can show people that, hey, it's okay to go down. It's all right to be underwater for a little bit of time if you believe in the project and where things are going. And of course I failed on that because everything started to go up. And it happened in September, October, November, December. So when we took a look over here, if you would have, I don't know, dollar cost average, Bitcoin in September, and also Ethereum, Solana, XRP, Cardano, Avalanche, Dogecoin, Tron and Chainlink, this is what you'd be at today. You would have invested, if you would have spent $10 a day, every single day, you would have invested about 1,000, $1,150. And coincidentally, crazy enough, you'd be at 260% on Avax. Everybody talks about how Sol was doing so great and it did. But Sol is only at 255% as of September, Cardano, 94%, Dot, 82%, Chainlink, 65%, Bitcoin, 35, Dogecoin, 32, Ethan, you can see where I'm at. So just as September, just by doing those things and all coins, you could do pretty well. I gotta love family. So then we have that piece, but are we overheated? Have we gone quite far? We'll take a look at this. If we're taking a look at the four-year cycles, let's go back. Let's go back four years, oops, to 2019. September 1st. There's a reason for why we're gonna do all this. So if we go back, we do the same thing, right? And we're dollar-cost averaging the same stuff. Some hasn't even been created yet, right? Solana isn't even there. Wasn't even created anything until 2020, correct me in the comment section. But if you would have done $10 from September 1st, 2019, and then sold around, let's take the first top, because it was April, then November. That doesn't matter. May, let's go over here. Bop, bop, bop, bop, bop. April 6th, April 10th, $10 a day from 2019, just 2021, not that much difference, right? $10 a day, you would have invested $5,960. And in Dogecoin, you'd have over half a million. In Cardano, 112,000, Solana, 80,000, that's pretty good. Link, 53, 50, 42, 32, 32, doing pretty good. But now let's take a look. And we did all that. Let's back this up a little bit. Let's take it from 2019, September 1st, to the ending date of 2019, December 24th. Let me refresh it so I can view it. So if we took it from here, September 1st, and we went just to December 24th, 2019. Again, remember, these are the reset years, right before the halving. If you would have done this whole thing right here, you'd still be underwater. Look at this. December 24th, 2019. You'd actually, in Bitcoin, you'd be down 13%. Doge 13, Tron 16%, and Ethereum 25%. So if we take a look at, again, comparing things, not that everything's gonna work out, exactly correct, but this time is a little bit different. To break this down again, it's like this. September 1st, 2019, December 24th, 2019, you're down. But if you just stuck around until the blow off top in the big bull run years, this is how much you'd be up. Now take this same timeframe, September 1st, 2019, and take a look at it, what it would look like today. There is a big difference between September 2019 to December 2019, as compared to September 2023 to December 2023. Now we can see that we are up, I mean, massively, massive, not massively, but pretty well up. So the question then becomes, if we're up so much here in this small timeframe, what does that mean when we get to the actual blow off top? Time only tell, but I can tell you right now, it seems to me that we are way ahead of schedule, but the question is, are we overheated? Well, let's take a look at this. Crypto market cap and trend line. We are actually, and we can see that as far as like a fair value, this is the red line, lower band is in the green, and then of course the blow off tops on the upper parts. We can see that, let me blow this up, you can see it, huh? We're not even at fair value. Now that's pretty much par for the course, right? Because that's how things are. As far as the markets, we're never like perfectly on the fair market value. We spend a lot of time below, spend a little bit of time above, but I can just tell you right here, we're below the fair market value. That's just one thing. Let me take a look at the NUPL, the net unrealized profits and loss. So you can find this chart at looking at Bitcoin, links in the description. Everything else we just talked about was on Ben's website, even that dollar cost average tool, which is free to use, links in the description as well. So we're taking a look at the NUPL, it's derived from market value, realized value, current price of Bitcoin, multiple of that number of coins in circulation. So we can see that right now, we're not overvalued. We're getting into that range, right? For his optimism and anxiety, but we just got out of the hope and fear. And I mean, barely, barely. What about the PyCycle Top, which has, of course, retrospectively taken a look at all the different tops from 2013 to 2017 to 2021. And coincidentally enough, it's nailed them all. So over here, here, it did okay over 2021, not too bad, but if we take a look as of right now, those bands are way apart. This is the 350-day moving average times two when it crossed over the 111-day moving average. And you can see the one that happens, which had happened over here, on April 7th, April 15th, 2021, when he had Bitcoin price at 64,000, way apart. So I don't think we're at the blow off top yet. How about the MVRVZ score? Market value is realized value, and then the Z-score kind of takes everything out. How far down are we? We are way far down. Now, of course, when you get in the red zone, you're way overheated. That happened in 2017, 2013. Same thing again, 2021 barely made it, but look how far down we are. What about the Poil Multiple? Of course, this is, we're taking a look at Bitcoin minor profitability. Remember I mentioned that in the middle range, we're not where it's heavily undervalued or heavily overvalued. So I don't see as far as Bitcoin goes, and Bitcoin always starts first. This one is a new one. You can check it out, the Bitcoin Cycle Master. It's coin value destroyed by terminal price. And we can see again, where are we? Pretty much right in the center. So most of the things we take a look at, we're not super, super overheated. But does that mean that we can't do a pullback? Of course not. This is crypto. We could have a 40% loss tomorrow, but we take a look at what's overvalued, not so much. However, there is one thing I'd like to caution you with, time-spense and risk bands. This is one of these different indicators that I use. And just so you know, the Bitcoin time-spend or risk band right now is actually all the way over here in the 0.6 to 0.7, and it doesn't spend that much time. And if you've watched the video, which there's a video that I put out, and it talks about when I'm going to sell 80% of all my crypto, there's the video itself, you'll know that the time and risk bands is one of those critical ones that I'm going to use. And when we start to get into this 0.7, 0.8 and 0.9, this is when I'm going to start offloading some of that. So as we're getting into this, it will be something to take a look at that maybe there's a little opportunity to take profits. Now some people say, Rob, why don't you take profits right now? I'm not saying I'm going to. I'm saying when it hits there, I got a plan. And that plan has to stay in place. I will not allow myself to deviate unless something crazy happens. Or like the American government says, hey, we're not going to use the dollar anymore. We're using Bitcoin. And that's going to be the world reserve currency. Then I probably won't sell for a bit. But Bitcoin isn't everything. Everything starts with Bitcoin, then it flows into alts. Usually that's what happens. Usually we see a blow off top for Bitcoin, then it starts to decrease, then the alts have blow off tops and then the reduction is there. So people ask me, Rob, what are you doing for the alts? Here's another thing that I use. The risk dashboard. I want to show you is, see this risk right here in the middle? USD risk as compared to the different cryptos. Again, what we just talked about, the risk level is 0.6 or nine. So not like 0.65 or 0.69, but it's just above that. ETH is pretty high, 0.62, ADA, not that high. So probably has a little bit of room to run. Dot, getting up there. AVAX not too bad, 0.2 and link. And you can take a look at, when you click on these, which is pretty interesting. It'll give you like a price prediction. I know everybody loves these things. I'm not a big fan of price predictions because it beholdens you to you thinking like, oh, it's got a, link has to go to 87 bucks before I start to think about selling. That's not, you can try that. I tried it last time, worked some time, didn't work all the time. And you can kind of see where things are going. But that will be chain link and I'll show you one more Solana at the 1.0 level of $600, which is crazy to think about, but who knows? And these are the things that I take a look at to see if we're overvalued. I think in some points we are, but for me to say, yep, I'm gonna dump everything right now. I don't think it's that time and that's for me, but it's up to you to decide what's the best thing for you. These are the things that I'm doing. I can't tell you what to do. I'm not your dad. I'm definitely not a financial advisor, but that's it for that piece. So let me just think about that in the comment section. And then lastly, the giveaway. So we put out this tweet. This is for Benji Bananas. And the reason I was talking about this one is because this is a Web2 game since 2013, has 50 million downloads. They're coming over to Web3. Super simple game to use. You don't have to do a lot of thinking. You just download it to your phone and start playing. It's one tap hypercasual game, which is where most of the game was actually live. And I wanted to just kind of show people this is another alternative to like getting into like Star Atlas or some other type of like really intense game. You know, it doesn't have to be an intense game. I think Web3 is a narrative. So I picked Benji Bananas to show people how easy it could actually be for Web3. And I said, hey, I just want you to do this. Just watch the videos, share this post, and then also give me your ID, your game ID, which is what you generate within the game. Of course, I can't track that. But what I was trying to do was to be able to use Twitter Picker, but Twitter Picker, there's a problem with the API as far as like with game IDs. So I can't use that. So what I'm gonna do is just do this. As I'm gonna scroll down, and I'm gonna stop and the first three game IDs that I see are the winners. So Burp right here, let's see. Random Duracell, I'm gonna follow you. So I can, so I'm gonna message you so you can give me, actually I'm gonna follow you, but I'm gonna have Benji Bananas reach out to you for the pass. Ah, Elbicho made it. Think I'm Elbicho, I'm already following you. So Elbicho is one. I know actually Elbicho, because it wasn't the last one. And Taylor Washburn, congratulations. So Taylor Washburn, Elbicho, and Random Duracell, congratulations. You just won the passes to play and swing and actually earned the tokens for Benji Bananas. And that's it for today. So look, like today's video, give it a thumbs up, consider subscribing. Everything we talk about is time sensitive, but that is it for today.