 We have to start watching these two levels here to the upside. The five-day moving average, you can see here, the last three times it got to the five-day moving average. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys, good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaccentrader.com. Nightly update, hope everybody's doing well. I usually have Thursday nights off to kind of just clear the head. My daughter had back-to-back basketball games yesterday, so I couldn't record the video, so I'm basically recording the video now, and oh, yada, yada, yada, yada, I have a basketball game literally after I'm done doing this. So remember when you were younger, right? Remember when, well, some of you guys are younger, you remember that crush you had, right? You loved that crush, that crush in your eyes could do no wrong, the way this person laughed, the way the person flung their hair, the way they dressed, their sense of humor, right? You know, that crush, you just couldn't stop thinking about that crush. And then one night you saw that person in a bar, and it was like two o'clock in the morning, and that person was slurring their words and talking a bunch of nonsense, and ultimately like threw up on you, right? How would you feel about that person, right? How would the appearance of that person in your eyes has it changed, right? They have a different opinion of that person, as the perception of that person a little bit different than you were before somebody threw up on you. So that's kind of where we are right now. We're in a market, and I said this today, pre-market during the morning strategy, that I feel like this week was probably the sloppiest, right? You know that crush, right? The crush that the market is good, and it'll give you organic opportunities, and everything will be good, because again, you believe in technical analysis. You have that technical analysis in such high regard, and usually things are going to follow through in that matter, right? That's your crush, okay? That is your fantasy spouse, whatever you want to call it. And this week we started seeing so many images of that crush, right? Of that can't do wrong image on mine, completely gone to hell in a hand basket, right? We saw this week, for the exception of today, I thought it was very, very aggressive, we'll get to that in a second. But I thought we saw for the first three days of the week the absolute sloppiest three o'clock in the morning market literally barfing on your new shirt feeling. And when you see what happened the last few days, we lost 364 only to reclaim it on the clothes. The next day we lost 364 again to lose the previous days low to reclaim 364 on the clothes. The following day, all these things reclaiming, and again, reclaiming usually a bullish thing, then you saw the market gap lower, right? And gap down very, very aggressively, only to recover, only to close below that 364 level, only to gap down today, which is again, it's supposed to do that, only to rally to green and reclaim the moving average. Again, sloppy, incoherent, all over the place, right? But the good news is today was actually the first day of the whole week, right? That we literally had a lot of value. Names like Netflix exploded. We'll get the Netflix in a second. NVIDIA had a great wash off the open going green to red into a really good wash that we caught in the morning. Microsoft's still incredibly strong, right? But the problem is the market is sloppy right now. The market is in a way that you're trying to have a reasonable conversation with a person who's been taking shots of Patron for the last two hours. It's sloppy. You can't understand them. They don't make sense. But you know what? It's okay. You wait to have an intelligent argument or intelligent discussion with that person when they become sober. I believe at least for today, the majority of the day, this is the first time that we saw the market kind of coherent, kind of looking at channels. They went through the channels. They followed through to the channels and everything was good. Now, before you turn around and say, well, today was a really productive day for the bulls. I wanna illustrate exhibit it, right? Even though the market was bought on a gap down. Again, if you've been watching this broadcast for years and years and years, I always say the biggest value on any gap down, especially in this really long, exaggerated range that we have is always to the upside. So that's not really surprising. The initial channels are always gonna be to the upside. What they did was, they did a great job. They did reclaim pretty decent levels and they reclaimed at 1.364. And when you kind of take a step back and like look at the tape today, you'll see a little bit of a concerning picture. Now again, this might not be something or they might turn into, there might be something that might turn into nothing, but the one thing that's really bothering me about what we did today and just over the last three, four days of the week is, number one, we have four consecutive days, right? Take a look. Here's a high, lower high, lower high, lower high and we keep on getting rejected off the five day moving average. The five day moving average for me, again, if this is the first time you're watching this broadcast, it means represent short term sentiment, right? That's a very, very big deal. So for me to get bullish, like really, really bullish on the tape, I would love to see the cues kind of reclaim 367 on a close. We basically would take out three straight days of lower highs and reclaim a pretty big level to go back to the highs. And for every name that does look good and Microsoft has been an absolute monster, right? I think we could all agree with, right? Absolute beast. Netflix for the last three days has woke up very, very strong, took out a major level. Congratulations for you guys who traded today off that 531 remount supply, just absolutely exploded. And the one thing that I started thinking about Netflix, I really couldn't find a catalyst and somebody turned around and said, well, a fund took a stake at it. Yeah, funds takes stakes in companies all the time. And somebody turned around, Alison said, well, maybe it's going higher because of the whole Delta, Delta is getting the Delta strain is getting strong. And I said, well, you could be right. But if Delta was a big deal and a catalyst for Netflix, well, wouldn't Delta also be a catalyst for Peloton that looks like garbage, like Zoom that looks like garbage, like Dock U, right? That looks like garbage. So I don't think for a second, the strength in Netflix is due to some, you know, stay at home theme stock, right? At first I did, but I didn't because if that was the case, Zoom would be strong, Dock U would be strong, Peloton would be strong, all these names would be strong and they're not. So look, without speculating, right? And I think we all love speculating. I think it's one of the things that we do great as human beings. We speculate, we dream, right? This does look like a feel like, you know when somebody turns around and says, somebody knows something, somebody might know something, right? Like somebody really might know something. This is the biggest volume we've seen in a long, long time, okay? This move was exaggerated to beyond all points, right? Incredibly bullish. And the question remains, and again, we're fully speculating, but there's the question remain, Amazon's in streaming, right? Amazon Prime is okay, right? They got some things on there, right? It looks some pretty decent. They're not Netflix, right? Disney, right? Disney has Disney Plus. Does Disney and Netflix make a good fit? Probably not. You're not gonna have Disney, right? Bambi next to After Porn ends four. It doesn't kind of mesh well, right? So you probably take Disney out of the picture. Then you look at names like, for example, like MGM and Apple, they're all into streaming. A candle like this, well it makes a person start to speculate. Obviously it's all speculation, but we have to really watch this thing for the next couple of days. Not really aggressive option flow. We saw some 550s, but this is definitely something we definitely wanna pay attention to for the next couple of days. Especially going into tomorrow's session, any dip into rising 60 minute support we have to keep an eye on. And if you look at the 60 minute channel, right? If you look at the 60 minute, obviously this is the dip I'd like to look at, but it does have, I still have room, right? It still has room to all the way to this top of this channel here in the 556 area. Maybe it takes a day of rest, maybe whatever the case may be, but this is something we really need to kind of pay attention to for the next couple of days just because it's so unusual and moving completely opposite of its own peers in the whole quote unquote COVID stay and move in place. But here's where things get really ugly. And if you look at the market today, you'll clearly see as great as that reversal was, you still have a lot of weakness, right? Amazon cannot get out of its own way. Again, bad earnings is just gonna drift. Facebook, again, continue to go lower. Again, it held the bottom range here for now. You have names like Apple that reversed couple of days ago and really, really, this was kind of like the telltale sign of what potentially was gonna happen today at the open because this is the leader that kind of ran it up. And this was kind of the first thing that took it down. So you still have a lot of spots here. Tesla, right? Tesla had this big, big monster move here out of the range and then it failed the range and then tonight it starts this whole AI presentation, right? Look, I don't know what's gonna happen to AI right now. It's what, five o'clock Eastern time. I believe that it's gonna start screaming shortly. Okay, so a lot of you guys are going to see this video after what Tesla's gonna do. I don't know what's gonna do tonight. But the one thing that we will talk about on Tesla is what happened last time it had a big event. If you guys remember the last really big event was battery day, right? If you guys remember battery day, battery day, battery day they got to introduce a whole big battery, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, battery, right? And what happened was they gap the stock up on battery and then they sold off the stock like 37 points in the next 24 hours. I'm not saying it will, I'm not saying it won't but we have to be at least conscious for that in the morning. And the one thing that we wanna know more than anything more than any type of speculating of what potentially could happen with Tesla tomorrow is looking at levels that we could at least technically realize, right? Today it washed, held the 200 day moving average. Obviously the 200 day moving average we're gonna keep an eye on tomorrow because if it starts losing the 200 day moving average obviously it's not a good thing. And if history repeats itself based on the whole battery day, right? Well there's gonna be a lot of value to the downside. On the flip side, right? Tesla had a big run up two days ago and it stopped at the five day moving average. Just in case it's good, right? Cause we don't know what they're gonna say on battery day or AI whether hell it is anymore, right? We have to start watching these two levels here to the upside. The five day moving average you can see here the last three times it got to the five day moving average it got rejected, got rejected, got rejected. So I wanna keep an eye to the 200 day to the downside tomorrow. I wanna keep an eye on the upside if it starts taking out the five day moving average. So basically be prepared, right? Basically be prepared from both sides of the aisle. Just the way we were kind of prepared today from the video, right? We talked about in the morning about, you know it held to 1.9740 twice, right? Once it got right through that 1.90 and a half let it level twice it got through there and it washed all the way to 87 really, really good move there in the morning. So we have to be prepared. I have no bias into Tesla for tomorrow. I do know that it's gonna put in a pretty good range tomorrow just because there's a catalyst, right? There's a catalyst and people are very, very aggressive with their opinions. So one side of the market is gonna get caught tomorrow being upside down. As long as we are conscious of the levels to the upside of the levels to the downside I do think we could go into tomorrow's session after this whole AI event with no prejudice, no bias just watching those levels and those levels are obviously gonna be on tomorrow's prime target at morning strategy. What I don't like again about going into tomorrow's session is I started seeing a lot of names kind of fizzle out despite all this and all that and the bulls did a great job. There's a lot of names that look like they're about to have some really big technical damage. Before I go to my daughter's basketball game let me give you guys some names, right? Look at mRNA, mRNA it pretty much ping pong now through every single supply and demand zones, right? So you had this big rally a couple of days ago got rejected on the 10 and it got sold off today back to back days and it held the 20. So this 20, right? And again it's the same exact same scenario as Tesla. I have no bias on this thing. We know the upside channel here. We know the downside channel here. Something's gonna give you, right? Something's gonna give and because of its average to range and because the market is so sloppy and it's not gonna give you 900 different setups we have to be conscious of names that could potentially do very, very well to the upside and do very, very well to the downside. So you have this 10 day moving average here around the 413 area, you have this area here below this 375 level, something here is gonna give. And our job right now because the market is so drunk, I think that's the best way of saying it, it's so drunk, it's so out of control. And by the way, trying to throw up on all of us just the way you're a dream girl or dream boy did in the bar and we wanna avoid the throw up, right? I don't want the throw up on me. I don't want the stankle. You can't get that stankle if you want somebody throws up on you, you can't get that stank. So the most important part is we wanna kind of get it out of the way of the sloppy this. We wanna kind of get out of the way of the noise and all that good stuff and concentrate on the valid pivots. And there's a lot of names that are not tradable for tomorrow just because they're in congested channels but there are names in the ranges like an mRNA and a name like a Tesla that could be very good. Again, a name like Peloton, right? Look at Peloton. Peloton's held this whole bottom range here twice. If Peloton starts losing this bottom channel, this thing could get hit as well. So again, there's definitely a name that I'm watching. There's some shorts, there's some longs. I wanna make sure we are covered from both sides and things are starting to look good. By the way, for all you guys who like these little plays, keep an eye on this stock Grom. I kind of like this thing. Had a big, big move, initial IPO, kind of going sideways. A little bit of a sloppy of trade but for all you guys who trade these little ones, keep an eye on this thing. Any clothes above this like 30, 30 level could be pretty good. Again, stop today at the linear regression line. So any clothes over 30, 30 could be good as well. So again, going into tomorrow, do I love some things? I kind of like some things, right? But again, it's not the nature of the business that we're in that we're comfortable with, with very predictable moves. The market is sloppy, the market is drunk. Again, say what you will, people are on vacation. This is the last day of summer. Nobody's there to defend prices. But again, sometimes the reality is this. Sometimes the market just wants to throw up on you. Your job is to get out of the way. Guys, have a great night everybody. God bless and I'll see you all tomorrow.