 Hi everyone, it is June 13th. I am Miss Schneider, Chief Strategist of MarketGauge.com. Doing a follow-up video with you today, really we're going to focus on currency and currency pairs. But I wanted to begin with a couple of comments on, first of all, the CPI in the U.S. that came in a bit softer this morning. But it depends on where you look, of course. And that means that food, for example, which after a couple of months had been flat, rose a bit, shelter rose a bit. And I'd say the biggest decline really that we saw was in the overall energy. And we'll take a quick look actually at the oil and the natural gas because we covered it yesterday, not natural gas, but oil, and said that it would potentially rally. But first, what you're seeing here is my concern about inflation. I do not think that we've broken the back of inflation. And what you can see here is even though it slowed down from about 8% in the U.S., we are still over the 2021 high of 5%. So we're still over a 5% inflation rate. And now with the Fed tomorrow, the FMOC, we really believe, or at least I really believe, that they're not going to raise. I've been saying that actually for a while. They could skip the meeting altogether or at least pause. But there will be some talk on blah, blah, blah, if, if, if, then, then, then, which means that another quarter percent is probably back on the table for July. And certainly we're seeing that today in terms of the yields that have gone up a little bit higher in spite of this inflation. So it is possible that the Fed is getting a little bit smart about that remains to be seen. Let's take a look at the currencies now, particularly how the dollar is pairing to the euro, to the Australian dollar, to the yen, and to the British pound. So what you're seeing here is the euro versus the dollar. And of course, remember the instrument that we start with in the ratio is the instrument that we're tracking. So this would be how the euro is performing against the dollar. And so looking at that right now, since the dollar has weakened, and remember we talked about that 103 being so super important. That whole video I did for you coming into today was sell the dollar, it's below 103.60 ish or under 104 and look to buy it back at around 103 for a quick scalp. And that is exactly kind of what happened so far. And you can see where it had that first blip of where the euro was stronger and now has come down back again. So this 108 level just seems to be extremely important. Now with FOMC, they could very well be a factor in terms of the dollar, but maybe not. But nonetheless, it does seem like the dollar's direction has been down. So I would say, looking at this, 108 of course would be the area for the euro to clear against the dollar. And then I would not be surprised to see 108.50 as the nearest resistance. And then of course, if the dollar really starts to break down, we'd be looking at a move closer to 108.75 or 108.90 kind of area. Now of course, we always have to be prepared for the other scenario, and I want you to take a look down here. This is our real motion indicator. So this is actually measuring this ratio in terms of momentum. And what we're seeing right now is this Bollinger ban. Now the last time we got a mean reversion, it didn't really go anywhere. And a mean reversion, of course, is when it breaks down below the Bollinger ban and then closes above it the next day. But at that point, if you look at the price, it was already breaking down under the 50-day moving average. So it didn't really do much. But now it's much more interesting to me because we are hitting right at the Bollinger ban after being underneath it with this basing pattern for all these days. So it could be that that 108 level we just talked about corresponds with another mean reversion. And this time we get going. Where would I change my mind? I would say right now, probably most realistically, would be if the dollar gets back through not only 103.80, 103.70, but also over 104, then I would expect to see the euro down here at around 107.30ish, in which case we could be taking another tumble. And this momentum indicator will get indeed weaker. Now moving on to the dollar versus the end. Now remember, we're looking at the dollar relationship to the end as opposed to what we just showed you with the euro dollar. And right now the dollar looks like it could have a breakout over this 140 level. That has been so persistent. We can see that over the course of the last several days. And of course, in this very tight range, the closest we could look at is if it cannot get through and breaks down under 139.50, then I would say that means probably more positive for the end and more negative for the dollar. But what's also interesting here is the real motion indicator. This is again momentum. This is the 50-day moving average. This is the 200-day moving average in green, just like this is the 200 and this is the 50. We're very consistent with the colors. And what's happening? Look at this. The momentum is pushing up right at the 200-day moving average, just as that 140 level is being tested. And if we go back in time a little bit, the last time this was above the 200 was in November 2022. So we're talking about not quite a year ago, but definitely lots and lots of months ago, and certainly hasn't been above it in all of 2023. So that's another really good factor to look at as we're heading into a cooling of inflation and be the FOMC with a little bit of a higher yield going on and the dollar very mixed. The next pairing with the dollar is the British pound. And that too, remember now we're starting with the British pound. And so the British pound is looking pretty awesome right here. Again, major breakout level, right at these levels here, maybe a little bit higher. Let's call it 126.30, 126.25. Breaks out through there. I think you're going to get some follow-through. And we have to go back a little bit in history here to see even the last time we were up at these levels. And we're really going back now to April of 2022. So this has been a year since we've broken out all these levels. So I would call that a pretty significant breakout. Obviously, you can use a 50-day moving average as a point where you know you're wrong, which right now is coming in at around $1.2473. Let's round off. So that makes it pretty simple. You're going to get through 126.30, let's say 1.2630. And you know you're wrong if it breaks down just under 124.60. And so that's about as tight a squeeze of a couple of cents you can get. And I would think that if it does actually break out, again, let's go back to some history here. We're looking at the last time this really had major resistance was up here at around 126.70. So it would have to clear there, too. And then we're talking about, if I move this down, really when this first broke down in April of 2022, look at that when the dollar started getting stronger, we're really going back into that territory with, I would say, nothing, because this was like a boom, boom, till around 1.30. Now let's take a look here at the real motion indicator. And again, here's that example of a mean reversion that actually worked, but we still have to get through these Bollinger bands. Also interesting, because the last time we've been above this Bollinger band was here right around where we're saying it needs to clear in terms of price. So two things you're going to want to see. You're going to want to see the price above these levels, number one. And number two is you're going to want to see some volume to push the momentum higher as well. And we have a very similar situation. Now the Australian dollar is interesting against the US dollar because we know that the Aussies actually just raised their interest rates. And so it looks like the market is anticipating that that could be favorable for the Australian dollar. It looks kind of similar to what we just saw with the British pound. But once again, if we just go back a little bit, the actual stick of the candle today, we've been there in terms of the intraday price. But really what we need now is a move over 0.68. And a move over 0.68 will take us to, and again we have to go back in history a little bit here, back to levels that we haven't seen. In this case it would be February of 2023, but really then we're looking at a move to maybe 0.6875 or 0.69. I mean none of these are big movers. But look at the momentum. Here's another classic case of mean reversion and look at that momentum just increasing. This momentum up here by the way, if you just look to the left of my line, you can see that we have not been this high in momentum since here back in of February when we were at those levels. So that tells me that the momentum is in the favor and the technical breakout will be a good breakout that we haven't seen since February. And again, so you can look for that in terms of a little follow through. In terms of where you're wrong on this one, I would say pretty simply, if you look at the bars of the candles here or the bodies of the candles of these last three times we win this level. And the body of the candle of actually the day I'm talking to you. And you kind of put them all together. You can see you don't have to even know or take very long to find out if the dollar is going to gain strength against the Australian dollar. All you have to see right now is that if it breaks down under 0.6750 or 52, that would be what we would consider to be a failure and maybe a little bit of an overboard condition because you can see this has had a nice move up over the last several days. All right, quick glance here at the crude oil and natural gas. So when we talked about crude oil yesterday, we were looking at bar charts. We're back at trading view because I really wanted you to see my real motion indicator here. But what we're having right now is after it looked like everybody was getting bearish. And there was a big article by Goldman Sachs that they were so negative on oil. Of course, that's why we're very skeptical on analysts who crunch numbers where we like to look at charts. Right now what we're seeing is not only did that level hold, but we're getting what we call an inside day, which means today's trading range is inside the big bar or the big candle that we had yesterday. So that means indecisive. So before we start cheering, we will look at the momentum here. Now, momentum is showing a real divergence. And this is what I find to be the most interesting. Whereas the 200 day moving average is up here in price and the 50 is here, the 50 is above the 200 here in terms of the crude oil futures. Number one, and we're looking at light crude oil right here. And number two is we actually had a mean reversion above not only the Bollinger ban, but also the 200 day moving average. So if I had to place a bet, it would probably be more in the camp of this gets back over $70 a barrel. In which case, I think that that would mean for whatever fundamental reasons come out, a bigger rally is coming maybe up closer. At least we could take another look if it gets near 74. Obviously, if we break down under this 67 or 66, 74 level, again, we'll see the momentum go back down and all bets are off. And now if we go back to our bar chart and look at natural guest futures here, this is the July contract. Remember, we talked about that 50 and it failed. Now here we are back under. We did have a little bit of a reversal followed by one of those inside days. So really, when this cleared over 227, that was really your signal to go long. And now would be your actual good signal to actually have not only a risk, but maybe to see if this rally fails. If it holds, we want to see this go back up over that 50 day moving average at $2.47. In which case, maybe, maybe, especially with some news out about explosions, we could see a move back up to 280. Okay, that's it for now. Thanks so much for watching and bye for now.