 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network After a weekend of pure chaos from start to finish We get to close things up with two teams that have definitely never frustrated us in the past It is a cowboys at the buccaneers to round out wild card weekend ready to break down our thoughts on that game Get you said for the contest wrap-up wild card weekend to let you know where we're seeing value right now Over at Fandall sportsbook. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sadas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here once again by Ryan Williams Check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan. We're getting pumped for tonight's game But that's late a game this weekend was bananas. How are you doing today? Oh? I'm doing well. I mean, you know, they don't call it super wild card weekend for nothing Jim So we'll just let that be what it is Definitely, I mean an incredible slate of games, you know, you love to see when they When they get it right, I guess quote-unquote We're you know, I think we were we were a little bit worried there that the Chargers Jaguars game was going to be So lopsided that I was just you know gonna gonna mute Trevor Lawrence on Twitter Because I didn't want to see people dragging him through the mud But yeah, what an incredible game from Jacksonville. I mean, you know shout out to the Miami Dolphins yesterday Scholar Thompson the receivers let him down 100% But you you know, you you just love to see when you know those high totals or high spreads I should say Can you know be alleviated by some some good play and any any given Sunday any given Saturday Thursday? Whenever they're gonna play the games Jim This is why they play the game because you never know what can happen. Just ask the Vikings I was very much with you on the Trevor Lawrence thing on Saturday Because I had the Jags money line and so like I'm just like okay Mark, this is a loss. It's whatever and it was like I tweeted one point after he threw his fourth thick I was like, you know, he's just trying to drag down their wind telephone next year And it was like kind of like copium for me And it was like that that meme where it's like the person like pulling the happy face away And you can see that they're like stewing underneath the the happy face That was me tweeting that out and then all of a sudden it's like oh They do it they doing some stuff here and I was positive they were going to miss that field goal like I was like I know how That's right, like I I was like, okay, I took the money line if I had taken two and a half I wouldn't have to worry about this I just worry about a block kick which I was like, you know, also kind of because I had them in a teaser as well And I was like, okay, if it if it settles on eight, you know, that's that's not that's not ideal It's not the end of the world ideal but like I Feel like this is gonna be a mess and I was just like it was Doomsday, but like, you know, I was like, okay, they gave me a fun ride at least it was a good game I got to enjoy that the kick went through and I was like, okay This is this was a great day and like that's not the first time that's happened with them I had their money line the Ravens game where they had that comeback the the Cowboys game. So Luckily, I ran by numbers for next weekend. No value in the Jags against the cheese So I don't have to worry about that because they're just an absolute buzz saw that I don't want to deal with So I think that that's a relief to me. But honestly That game despite being like very clearly the best game like all the other ones were great, too And it's not just because you know having like money on the Jags and stuff like that But that was just a fun weekend overall And I hope to get to run it back and next week and honestly Ryan like looking at the quarterbacks and play next week We might get to run it back again with more fun there, too Yeah, I mean just looking ahead, you know, you look at headlines here Jags plus eight and a half 93% of the money coming in on the Jags 73% of the bets Bengals plus four and a half on the road against Buffalo. We know what that game is going to mean in general 85% of the bets coming in 68% of the money and then Giants in the Eagles, you know We get a we get a divisional matchup in the divisional round of the playoffs Giants plus seven on the road They're getting a bulk of the money to 69% So, you know the early the early shot bets are coming in on these teams all on the road actually Where people are loving loving getting action there. So that'll be a phone one to discuss next week Yeah, I've got the Jags chiefs game at seven and a half right now in one model and the other model It is at seven point eight. So not enough value to eight and a half meter to bet and I am delighted about that I don't want to worry about that, you know No action is good action as evidenced by that that Vikings Giants game for me on Sunday as well. So No, I mean like hey, you got the you're the over in that game I did but yeah, the three. Yeah, but you know, you had the over that's you know, one for one or one for one for two You know still counts for sure We'll see we'll talk more about that on Thursday show to get you set for those But today we're gonna break down cowboys versus bucking ears and let you know how you can finish off your weekend Hopefully on a high note But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast big week ahead We've got our work our Divisional round first look is coming up tomorrow. We'll have that and also we'll talk some PGA batting with Brandi Gaduola NBA and NHL on Wednesday with Tom Vecchio We'll have Ryan back on Thursday to break down the divisional round and then on Friday. We will be talking player props. So That is the week ahead here on covering the spread a lot of good stuff As always to get it as it is posted make sure you subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And also check us out over on the fan duel YouTube page also for tonight If you want some DFS action the NFL Monday million is live on fandal for the cowboys versus bucks Just pick five players stay under the salary cap and compete for your share of one million dollars in total prizes including 200 thousand dollars to first place all of that We're just a nine a dollar entry fee to get yourself entered download the fandal app or go to fandal.com Eligibility restrictions apply now Let's dig in here the cowboys at the Buccaneers We'll talk about the markets in a second right now Do the cowboys as two and a half point favorites the total of this game is still hanging at 45 and a half right before talk But those specifically what is your top-down view of cowboys versus bucks? My top-down view well we talked about this earlier, and I just don't know at me I do know but it's Brady at home in the playoffs You know the number at two and a half there then the bucks getting two and a half points Sure, I mean I guess that probably feels appropriate when you look at how the season's been going But I mean when you look at how Dallas has been playing down the stretch and like you know What McCarthy showed us with this team in the playoffs this far? I just don't know how you can think that they should be Necessarily favored like it should be more of a pick them to me in this matchup Maybe you know what one and a half is where I'd feel comfortable about it But if this is gonna be a one possession game let alone just needing a field goal like at home Brady gets the ball last minute like I You know there's just so many different scenarios where I could talk that in also just in general with the way that this offense has been playing You know the past couple times they're hitting their stride at the right time And this is the reason why Todd bowls probably let the starters play a little bit in week 18 Just to make sure that they were fresh here to be able to handle business the Dallas Cowboys on the other hand They've been dealing with some injuries and woes the past couple the past couple weeks And so we'll see you know how healthy they are the front seven for Dallas is really gonna you know They're gonna have to make They're gonna have to make their presence known especially with the injuries that are up front for Tampa Bay But even then I mean this is something that they've been dealing with for a while Tampa Bay That is and I expect them to get Leonard before net involved I expect the receivers to be involved heavily Brady's probably gonna pass 40 plus times in this game And they're they're just gonna you know try and Have their way and make another run here is what could be Tom Glass here with Tampa So for me yes, the overall lean in this game is that it's playoff Tom Time and I cannot put hard on dollars on the Cowboys until they show me that they can prove it Especially not having a home game here. Is that enough where you want to take the bucks plus two and a half or is that more just a lean for you? I've taken the bucks plus two and a half. I've taken the bucks money line. I know it's changed a little bit But I did what is it currently at here? It's loading 120 Yeah, that's probably is where I got it at Thursday, I think like right after we talked Yeah, and yeah, I feel I feel good about that, especially knowing like what it's going to mean, you know for the bucks to Win here and a lot's been made about you know, Tom Brady's record against the Dallas Cowboys and and things that nature seven to know So I know that's gonna be talked about a lot of the money And a lot of the bets have come on the Tampa Bay side of things which you know Usually I'm seeing fade the public, but this is just kind of one of those spots that feels like We know the outcome before the outcomes been played out, right? For me and we talked about this game on Monday last week And I took the bucks plus three when it was still there with it being a two and a half I've got the cowboy sphere by one point six two and one model and by point two three and another so The other model shows a bit more value in the box here Which is surprising to me because that model is love the Cowboys all year It's I think it's an indication of what you were talking about where the Cowboys Really did struggle down the stretch and that does matter To an extent for sure now the one thing that's positive for them is they get Tyler Beattish back this week Beattish has a high ankle sprain he's her center and He's not gonna be a hundred percent because it's a high ankle sprain Those can take a long time to recover but having his brain out there I think is more valuable than having you know, fully healthy Tyler Beattish like having it just has his brain At center I think is pretty valuable to the Cowboys So I do think that helps a lot. I also did take the under in this game It is not moved at all. So that took it 45 and a half. It was minus one 15 when I took it It's minus one 14 right now. So it is stayed almost exactly the same the entire way and I still feel okay about that my slight concerns are the same ones We discussed on Monday where a the Cowboys secondary is so beat up right now where you could see the bucks Kind of going similar to what they did against Panthers So also the super bang of secondary in that game where they kind of you know flame throw down field and also both these teams Operated at a very fast pace. So those are the two things that concern me in terms of the total We did see a lot of points this weekend. I don't think that was Super surprising honestly, I think that you know a lot of it made a lot of sense where we saw the points come so I'm I still feel okay about the under my conviction It is a little bit lower because there's been no movement in my favor since then but any read for you on 45 and a half Ryan Yeah, I actually kind of like the the over here Yeah, and the reason being is just because like the I mean either one of these teams can force the others hand right and I think that's either gonna lead to just kind of Maybe stop your play which then will lead to shorter fields Which could lead to more scoring so, you know that that's kind of what I like because We know everything's been talked about with this Tampa defense Which has kind of changed over the course of this season as compared to last season But I still feel like the best path for the Cowboys success is through the air not the other run So we'll see if they're able to get CD and Michael and Dalton going here But also, you know, just the opportunistic defense and the way that they play You know if they are able to get sack fumble interception there give them some short fields lead to more points And then we know that Tampa like I said, I just I just have a feeling that Tom's gonna be out there Just kind of slinging it all over so I end the pace for both of these teams is is pretty high from the regular season So I do think that this kind of leans to and over here You know, it wouldn't it wouldn't be surprising as everybody's kind of talked about this You know game going over of the total that we get us kind of sloppy match up and it just ends up being like a 2017 type of finish, but I would lean over for me 2017 with me having three of you fine by me. I think that's that's a great score I guess that's push like, you know, I 2018 maybe, you know, we'll workshop the final score exactly here Let's go 21 20. I don't care which direction 21 20. I'll take that Okay, let's talk about some props in this game starting off in the Cowboys side the Talk of the town always has been the Cowboys backfield. We've seen a big split here between Tony powered and Zeke Elliott's I'm kind of Operating under the assumption that power gets a bump given it's a high leverage game But it is a tough match up here, you know, they do like Zeke justifiably. He's played well down the stretch What do you see on the Cowboys side in terms of props for tonight? Yeah, I mean, I love Tony Pollard in this matchup I was just gonna look here just to make sure I had the number correct So, yeah, 71 and a half on his rushing and receiving prop, you know, that feels kind of hefty But when you think about like the best path for success with the Cowboys like I think that his you know prop there On the receiving yards, which I believe is that 20 and a half, you know That feels great to get that number if you don't want to take the rushing and receiving But he's at you know, he's had the chance to break off some some runs here I'm you know kind of struggled in the first matchup that they played in earlier this year But I do think this kind of favors him over Zeke Zeke at 50 and a half for just his rushing guards that that feels Kind of high. I'm just knowing how it's been for him in this matchup before knowing what the time sure is gonna be like It's just it's I mean, I probably won't bet it But you know if I was you know guns in my head if somebody said, you know Pick one on Zeke, I'd probably lean the under there But yeah, I think this is a phenomenal matchup for Tony Pollard And I think he's you know, probably the second best weapon that they have on this team outside of CD land. Yeah, they've had What is it? Seven games since Zeke came back and here are Pollards rushing plus receiving totals in those seven games 189 61 so that's a miss. So 106 that's a hit. So two and one 62 that's an under 106 over 80 over and then 20 But that was in that that commander's game where he played just 44.6 percent of the snaps So got pulled early So he's four and three to the over in those games if we assume he doesn't get a bump like if he we assume he keeps the same role and I Think I'm not saying it's like a 90% chance he gets a roll bump But I'm saying I think it is more likely than not that his role increases tonight where it has been so Pollard to me is the guy I'm turning to in terms of not only just that market the rushing plus receiving I you mentioned the receiving as well at 20 and a half I think that makes a lot of sense, but also I don't mind aggressive markets with him Like I wish we had alt rushing plus receiving markets. That would be really tempting for him Yeah, I'd be into that but also we'll talk about touchdown bets later. He's plus 190 I think that is a very good number for Tony Pollard So to me, I kind of think it's across the board digging to power props. You highlighted the rushing plus receiving I think that branding a doula on We talked to him on Thursday or Friday. He did not talk about that That's I was looking at that because it's logged in my bets because I have that one personally So Brandon has the power in time touchdown. I have the power rushing plus receiving So we're kind of checking all the boxes here. We're all on board with Pollard. What could go wrong with that? Yeah, one more thing on Pollard Jim receptions for him is at two and a half or at least earlier this week and that was at Plus 116 now again, that was earlier this week I believe it was on Friday when I got at that number It could have changed just a little bit slightly because the any time touchdown prop I got him at 185 and he's up at 190 So I mean things are changing all across the board for it's only probably there but over over two and a half Receptions I just had to had to get action on that his target totals and those games are six Way over. I mean like it. This is target. It's not catches, but six two three five five eight and one like They're getting work in the past. They're giving them work in the passing game I think that that's a very plus one sixteen over two and a half I'm gonna actually check to see if I can get that right now, too Okay, let's let things over actually doing talking to you the past catchers in the Cowboys You want to talk about the bucks? Over two and a half is minus 128 right now. So Wow, okay. Well, yeah, I'm not gonna get a better price at Rhode Island Sport Guarantee that I'm gonna check anyway just to be safe But any more past catching props for you on the Cowboys side, you know flip over the box on the Cowboys side I mean, it's interesting when you see CD lambs over a reception prop currently as it stands right now at plus one sixteen at six and a half so you know Dallas is gonna need to get him involved I mean, he's the most consistent weapon that they have on this team and I get it That might feel like a lofty number, but we've seen time and time again You know these guys that especially like, you know, you have an alpha receiver this he could just be a magnet you know for catches and Listen, I think it's a it's a pretty hefty number But one that I'm willing to get on knowing How how I'm projecting this game to go if it if I'm expecting, you know over points and I'm expecting You know shoot out type of Capabilities here. I'm willing to get on that number there for CD lamb on his on his yardage prop at 75 and a half I mean, that's one that I'd be I'd be willing to take some action to probably not a full unit Maybe a half a unit there. It's minus one 13 I do think Gallops over receiving prop at 35 and a half is interesting too because just from the The big playability for him like he could easily, you know get a 25 yard catch or something like that If he gets two or three catches, he could see himself over that prop as well So so that's kind of where I'm at on the cowboy side right now I did look the powered thing at good old Rhode Island sports book love a good monopoly minus 174 over two and a half. So good The app has been closed. All right, let's move over to the buck side here So we can find something else I can find instead. We saw that offense perk back up in week 17 Looked okay in the limited action in week 18 with no Mike Mike Evans before the starters got pulled any value for you on their side So for Tampa Bay There's well, I should say there's there. I mean, I love all the Tampa Bay players. Let's be honest Let's start off. Let's start it off with Leonard for net because I'm Lenny playoff Lenny Like this is where I think we can get a lot of action over the field on Lenny or I guess over the book I'm Lenny because the field we're all in it together You're looking at his rushing prop at 35 and a half I'm just gonna take that. I just expect him to be on the field. I know we're trying whites there You know, even if it's a 65 35 split like I still feel like he can get there Especially if they're in a position where they're able to kind of control this game Like I think they just gonna churn Lenny and let it let him kind of get going if they are You know kind of just taking them to the woodshed then maybe we see a little bit more Rashad white But this is this is kind of one of those instances, especially with the you know Rashad whites probably and I love him But he's one mistake away from like Leonard for net just being in there the full time Like Brady's not playing around like this is the playoffs now He's got you know, Lenny's earned his stripes with Brady. So I feel like that number is just Just too low. I have to get action on him when we talk about the receiving props Mike Evans and I just want to make sure I have this correct here as we pull up the touchdown scoring pop So Mike Evans at plus 200, which is what I got it at earlier this week like that's just I feel like a slam dunk for me Again, we're talking about the favorite target, which Chris Godwin, you know He's also plus 200 and he's you know got consistent numbers all across this year But just the way that they got him going in the Carolina game Mike Evans That is I would be shocked if they don't try and help have them help find Peter also with Russell gauge Russell gauge has been the red zone leader for this team all year This is where he's made his bread and brother bread and butter in grok's absence Russell gauge anytime touchdown this plus 550 Like we've seen him we've seen Brady look for him time and time again in the red zone It's not you know a K dot and it's and and that right we know what Dallas is gonna do They're gonna make sure that Mike Evans in the red zone is covered. They're gonna make sure that Chris Godwin is covered So Russell cage should probably be able to sneak past somebody In in find a score if we're especially if I'm expecting points to be scored. Absolutely love that. I think that The Lenny one makes a ton of sense again talking about Brandon here on Friday He also had Lenny over 38 and a half rushing yards So you and Brandon very much in the same page and Brandon is I think five and oh so far on the Friday prop So if you're on the same page is him probably a good thing So that's got to feel good about letty and the reason that I like that is Not only the trust factor you mentioned But also it seems like Leonard Fournette's role increased a bit as he got further removed from his injury And honestly, I don't blame them like he played okay in those games They played Rashad white deeper into the week 18 game Fournette played a couple snaps in the first series Then sat the rest of the way and then he tweeted playoff Lenny after the game So, you know the tweet narrative around Leonard Fournette is in line there his rushing plus receiving a 70 and a half I also think that one is interesting too because he does get a ton of work in the passing game I thought a bit about Rashad white under 14 and a half receiving yards, but I wound up talking myself out of it just because You know, there are pretty obvious paths to an over there But I do think that the the four net props in general very enticing I'd probably lean towards the rushing plus receiving just because of how much work he gets But I think regardless buying into an expanded role for Leonard Fournette similar to what we're doing at 20 Pollard I do think that makes a lot of sense Now you talked about uh, my Gavin's two to one. You've got a Russell gauge plus 550 Who else talked a bit about 20 power to plus 190 Four in any time touchdown There was one more I wanted to ask you about one that I saw that was enticing is Kate Otten He is six to one to score a touchdown I can't touch a Kate Otten yardage prop because he doesn't get yardage I don't know if it's like not if it's like his contract. He's not allowed to get more than like 17 yards in a game um, but from a touchdown perspective, you're getting a guy who In the past two games he played with Cameron Brayte, which was weeks 16 and 17 In those games otten had an 84 87 snap rates So even when Brayte being active both those games Otten basically didn't lead the field. He had seven and six targets in those two games Did literally nothing with it, which is why again, I will not touch yardage props But touchdown props six to one for a guy With an 80 snap rates I feel like that's kind of a turn down. So I think to me In the non power department I would lean towards Kate otten at six to one is being my favorite Any thoughts for you on Kate otten or any other touchdown bets you like? Yeah, Kate. Kate otten is is interesting. Um, I think I think you know any any of these any of these guys It's it's fun to have you know a little bit of action on them Um, because we know what they want to do 20 You know if they're at the 20 yard line even at the 10 yard line, you know, I think that they're going to be willing to pass Um on second and third down. So any of these guys that is is fun to have action on Um, I do think that there is merit to taking Brayte at 15 to one to score a touchdown I mean if they're on the one like we've seen we've seen him do this before just sneak it in like he'll he'll take it himself Uh at 15 to one for a quarterback prop, you know, that's pretty incredible So, uh, just to have action on that. I think it's a fun one too. Yeah, he had a rushing touchdown against Carolina, I think yeah, uh in that game. He had a sneak touchdown in that one. Um, so It probably wouldn't pull a hunt Lee where he You know gets it popped out of his hands Uh, the Trevor Lawrence when I think it was on a two-point conversion where you're just like a boop Like but he's like six foot six So you can kind of like just stretch arms strong, you know yourself across the goal line But I think Brady Jordan and space June. Yeah, that's right. You know You're in loony tune land man do it. You can do whatever you want Kind of dream bigger. Uh, but yeah, I think that the Brady one is interesting too, but It's a fun game. Um, it's it's an interesting game for sure. Kind of like you said, I don't really know what to think overall I'm hoping we get, um A lower scoring game hoping we get the the bucks to at least keep this game closed and keeping it a field goal But we'll see how things play out for it's not any final thoughts for you ride before we close up shop for today No, this is just you know, this is fun fun time guys. We get the island game So make sure you guys are being smart with your action But definitely get a lot of action on that gear up for next weekend divisional round We're gonna have a ton of fun matchups as well then too Can't wait to dissect those games with you Jim. That'll be a fun one. But yeah, just uh, you know Have fun if you guys are betting Dallas because uh, everybody is on Tampa So I know that Vegas is uh rooting hard for you. Dallas betters out there Ah Yeah, just glad I'm like I thought I thought for the longest time because you knew this matchup was coming I thought for the longest time they'd be betting Dallas and just be nervous the whole week Like I could lose tonight. You know the sleepy tom narrative is in effect It's a it's a prime time game for tom brady after his bedtime. So, you know that that's happening But like, you know, I just feel a little bit carefree if I lose I lose I'm much less nervous than I would have been had I bet the one up any of the cowboys So at least we got that going for us regardless. Hopefully we can finish out Well, okay, we can high note because it has been a blast so far That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread I will give my first look into The divisional round tomorrow on the show We'll also talk to you brandy gadoola to get his thoughts on some pga action For this week to get that and the rest of our podcast search for covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast make sure you hit subscribe because markets do move We want to make sure you get these as soon as they're posting also Check us out over on the fan dual youtube page ryan. I appreciate you once again As always swinging by for today. Good luck to you tonight. I'll talk to you once again on thursday Sounds good. Jim looking forward to it. That is ryan williams check him out on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w i am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s looking forward to talking to you all once again tomorrow enjoy monday night Football this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network