 let's jump over to our man teddy kegs that folks you can talk you can reach teddy service every day when you want to sign up right under the newsletter tab folks the tiger for support check it out comes with thirty-day money back guarantee teddy puts an outstanding weekly report on mondays updates that follow throughout the week when warranted and is a great time to keep track of the forex market now that's enough said folks teddy kegs that good morning good morning tell me what a crazy at twenty four hours it's been home we live in interesting times teddy man we say all the time but uh... yeah not often do you see what was it i mean she's talking about fifteen hundred points in the doubt uh... the nasdaq one hundred given up almost a thousand points just just crazy numbers let alone in currencies man dollar index uh... where do you want to start things off today as you go around uh... well i think the reaction to cp i number something we should talk about you know i've been talked to saying how the economic numbers are going to be such a important thing as far as direction making you know decisions in the market place in you know we've been talking about inflation now obviously for months and i think this number is very important you know it's showing that you know when the cp i came out last month everyone's saying hey you know inflation is cooling down and blah blah blah it's like no it's just laying off the gas a little bit you know and even now we're looking at it well maybe it has been certain sectors but we see in other sectors it really hasn't you know i mean we have i mean i think a lot of it's also price gouging you know i mean companies need to make their margins or make up their but their losses from what they've gone through over the past couple of years and it's really hitting the economy you know i think that's why when the cp i came out the way it did the stock market really got hit the way it did because earnings are becoming an issue you know so i think that that's something that's going to affect all the markets and we're really going to see a lot more volatility based off of these things coming moving forward yeah it's amazing trying to just figure out where we go when so much of the analysis has been so wrong i mean what was it was in march when they said we probably peaked in and maybe that was the super headline number on with some crazy things going on with crew during those months of course which push those headline numbers to some pretty stratospheric levels uh... but yeah here we are in september right and we're getting numbers that are actually accelerating and on the course side they really are men and a lot of conversations i was talking about earlier we got mortgage rates above six percent has anybody got to buy a house right now at six percent and then are they going to be in rent the rent is going to lag and that's going to have a dramatic effect for years to come very difficult in my head to wrap my head around and i'm just throwing in my analysis that agrees with a lot of what you're saying but it's just something i've been thinking about a lot because if that's such a big factor let alone everything else and that's your own can of worms right isn't i don't even know what happens there for food and everything you're saying man because this info c e o is okay it's not their responsibility to tame inflation right they have a business they have employees you have to uh... do what you have to do in that business now there is gouging going on in certain areas i'm sure but to some degree they're dealing with rising whether it's human capital costs right whether it's cost of goods whatever they're doing uh... they have to survive and and uh... the problems they're dealing with the force of them to raise prices and if people are gonna pay it and that's gonna allow them to succeed as a business that's how things work man so that's its own can of worms but then you add in the mortgage rate and how rent is just gonna factor i don't see how numbers come down to two percent the next couple years man maybe we get close that's almost the best case scenario but it's a tough one right now uh... and we're seeing it in those in those numbers right you jump from that teddy and then you jump obviously huge moves in the dollar index right huge moves in yields uh... we had some action in crude as well still holding up pretty well this morning for crude uh... maybe we start with the dollar index would it would you take on the dollar index as we're pushing almost one ten again on that dollar index uh... well you know what i'm bullish the dollar index overall you know i mean the number of numbers out of europe in the u k are looking really big up mean abysmal if you will at best you know or so i mean as far as a dollar index i can't see how it's not gonna remain strong especially with the fed coming up next week you know so i mean we know that that the fed is aggressively using this direction right now as far as raising rates are very hawkish and i think with this number is this gives them more fuel to the fire to support their narrative you know whether it's right or wrong well that's a whole nother issue so that's something you have to follow and that as long as they are relentless in that on that path then the dollar index is going to continue to rise is going to put a lot of pressure on the euro and also the pound and also on the end you know i mean there's just no there's nothing that would counterbalance that you know that right now you know i mean especially oil it may be even if that sells off a lot you're looking at these energy prices now in the in the other europe in europe throughout the e you and even in the u k that's pretty much energy efficient are independent you know that are just insane you know i mean that the level of decline in if americans firewood would be paying what they're paying right now in germany and other countries in the u for their uh... electricity in their gas we would have riots in the street we would yeah i mean seriously who's gonna spend a thousand dollars a month for their electricity for a one-bedroom apartment you know i mean this is ridiculous even the conversation around price of the gas pumps and and you know we get it but it's it's staggering sometimes what other countries are paying right and then for us it's just not the norm so i get it because it impacts your bottom line man uh... you're paying those weeklies but yeah they have some serious issues in crude i mean crude is helped the c the inflation narrative tremendously i mean there's a sub you know extreme risk and i know i'm speaking to the choir here man but there's an extreme risk when you chop in at eighty to ninety we have inflation running super hot that what happens if we chop back around between one hundred and one ten which is not out of the realm or even you know wherever it ends up right i mean that's been very helpful over this period of time and still we have such a big problem going on now there's two factors this the slow downs you know all that stuff that affects the effects screwed uh... but yeah interesting where we go how about how about the end if we could jump around so i know even today sure you got the end moving with some action uh... even or so then then the euro the dollar you're backing off you were almost it like one forty five i was looking at yeah and now you're pushing one forty two eighty seven still pretty lofty levels but what's your take on the end well i think that these you know as we buffer these new highs you know you're going to see them that the nice corrective sell-offs you know i mean i think what they're doing is they're squeezing out the week long as people who are trying to jump in a trend that's been going on for over a year you know so as we're buck bucking up against the highs on the top you know or a what seems to be topping i think that's why you're getting these little reason all these little rich got corrections to the downside uh... but i'm bullish overall i mean you have oil that is stabilized uh... but then you know we had a by-signal in oil that we put out in the report for this week you know i think that the low that was set last week in oil maybe the low for the next couple of weeks it's very likely that that's gonna hold there's nothing that really i mean it we got numbers oil numbers coming out today maybe that changes everything you know so but i right now i think that overall that is still bullish you know the dollar index for sure because of the fundamentals of the interest rates is very bullish you know and that's going to drive these currencies in the in the u.s dollar yen you know even the bank of japan came out again they're staying dovish they're not going to be hawkish so there member their narrative was they were to defend their currency three months ago they never did anything and is and now it's a narrative is we're staying dovish so whatever that was just an idle threat you know which back then when they came out a member having the conversation with you being like i think you can count on them doing something because the japanese usually don't play games like this you know so what's going on over there is a whole new dimension but it's definitely by the action speak louder than words doing nothing is exactly what their action is you know doing nothing is still doing something you know especially when it comes to the markets and with that being said we're gonna be bullish to u.s dollar yen i like it can you hang with us for the final three minutes so i'm going to be in thing about what i'd love to just chat about is you know i don't think the horizon is near but what are you looking for maybe if there is a change alright we'll just chat about that we'll get back stay tuned folks we'll be right back in one more segment too perfect welcome back folks we get the s&p right now up above fifteen points now up about ninety two markets holding up relatively well for the first twenty five minutes of trading with talking or man teddy keg stat folks check out his newsletter under the newsletter tab the tiger forex report uh... out every monday with a new issue and updates to follow so teddy i agree man that the trends are pretty well intact it's tough to argue against that uh... for those looking for potential change of shift shift of change uh... in terms of when that comes when maybe you know you maybe see maybe for those in fixed income right you're talking about the yield you're talking about the dollar we might not be there now but where does your mind go as you look for that you looking for multiple cp i prints are you looking for a fed indication how how are you thinking about if that change comes about whether it's you know three six nine twelve eighteen months down the road whatever it is uh... i would say that the only thing that's gonna really change things right now would be a fed change where their stance has to really reverse gears the only problem is if they start to lay off their what they're doing it totally just tears apart their whole narrative of what they're doing is what's going to help cut inflation so i think i think what you're gonna see is we're gonna continue to see cpi and ppi rise and continue to trend in this direction for the next six to twelve months easily you know so i mean there is no reason to think that anything's gonna turn this around right now there's just not i mean too many people are scrambling too many businesses are collapsing you know and now you have issues where and this is something i've talked to a lot of people who deal with logistics and supply chains before you couldn't get anything because you couldn't get stuff wasn't being delivered it was either stuck on one part of the world or whatever well what people started to do you know just like in the beginning of the pandemic when people started hoarding toilet paper people have been hoarding other things in the supply chain so now when you have producers the for instance for food and other and also in many manufactured products things they use for production they've ordered more than they normally need because they couldn't get any so they started to think well we need to order ahead because we have this business plan that we need to produce this amount of x whatever widget good it is okay now you have too many people sitting on stuff they can't sell that's another issue lots of issues man teddy i appreciate you taking the time with us every week man uh... appreciate the insight we'll find out where we are next wednesday and that's fed day right the right the inflation way baby it ain't going away awesome and have a great day folks thanks for tuning in stay tuned