 Everyone, welcome. Thanks for stopping by. So today we got a lot of things to go over. So let's just jump right in. So the first thing is that this is our second in a series of the watch alongs. And the watch alongs is when I put out different videos that were important and people had a lot of questions about what I want to do is just to go over those and they are prerecorded videos. And this is a video that I did over a year ago, which I talked about when I'm going to be selling up to 80% of my Bitcoin and altcoins. Why I'm going to do that? The different indicators that I'm looking at and everything in between. So you can maybe incorporate that into your strategy if that's what you plan to do. And I must stress that for this strategy, this is not financial advice. I can't give you any of that advice. I don't know who you are, what you're doing or your particular circumstances. And of course I'm not your dad. So it's up to you to figure out what is the best reason for you, but hopefully you can incorporate some of that into your planning moving forward. So before we get going, I just want to ask a question. Is the audio okay? I'm using a new microphone. This was recommended to me by Guy from Coin Bureau. He said this is one of the best ones that he uses. So let me know if there's any kind of reverberation or any kind of problems as we get going. And looks like it's going pretty good. All right, so the first thing is first. And that is, I want to say thanks everybody to people who have reached out. I have a herniated disc because I'm an idiot and I try to rip out a stump and out of my backyard, over 10 years that's been there and of course I broke things. So thanks everybody for putting, chiming in and telling me what would be pretty good to do. Also me and Guy did our NFA live video today. Ben is sick yet again, because of his four kids that keep infecting him with either kind of some kind of virus or bacteria, which is normal if you've got four kids running around if your parent knows what I'm talking about. And then also, before we move on and we get into the video, we do the watch along. Again, I will just be playing it. I will monitor the comment section. So if you have questions for every little segment, I will stop it, answer those questions and we'll go from there. But before we get into it, I thought this was very relevant to what we're going to talk about. This is Graham Steven and I actually interviewed the Dogecoin millionaire. And this is why it's so important to at some point think about taking profits because how many of you wrote everything all the way up and then all the way back down. Don't worry, you're not the first and you're definitely not going to be the last. So what I want to do is have you listen to this. This is about a minute or so long. Let me bring up the actual tabs so you can actually hear it perfectly and go from there. Dogecoin millionaire, we did a one-hour podcast and the second half of that podcast was just trying to convince him to sell. This is someone who's making 50 grand a year and he sold everything he had, maxed out his credit cards and put 150 or 200 grand at Dogecoin. And at the peak, it was worth $3 million. And we broke it down and like, dude, you will never have to work a day in your life. After tax, invest it in here, you could pull 3% of it out every single year. That's your salary. You've made your salary for life if you just sell right now, why take the risk? And so he did sell. What's the worst financial decision you see 20, 30 year olds make? Not setting up a Roth IRA, you could be a millionaire from this and it's incredibly easy. It's a retirement account. And by the time you're 65, all that profit you make within the account is tax-free. But the goal is that when you're young and doing that, you have 40 years of compound interest for all of a sudden that $800 you invest could be worth 8,000 and it's tax-free. And the limit is $6,500 a year. I don't have ways to get over it. More than that or if you're above the income limit. But for most people, it takes 10 minutes to set up an account. Dogecoin millionaire, we did a... Yeah, so that's, I think, pretty relevant to what we're gonna talk about today, especially the Dogecoin millionaire as we get into it. And that's the very first part actually. And then of course with the IRA, that's what Peter Thiel did. If you don't know Peter Thiel, one of the big investors, he put his PayPal stock into his IRA when it was worth absolutely nothing. And that was, he turned that into billions and billions of dollars, actually $5 billion. And of course that'll be tax-free to him when he turns 59 and a half years old, I think he might already be. So congratulations to Peter Thiel for doing a pretty great job of using that IRA. And then also if you are looking to find an IRA, obviously we use iTrust, which is in the upper left-hand corner. They are a sponsor of the show. So just so you know, there's a link in the description to say affiliate link. You don't have to use the affiliate link, but you get discounts for using it. So you can either go to iTrust IRA and check it out. Again, link in the description, you scroll down right around there and that is it. Now, if you're worried about taxes right now, just so you know, if you have a Roth IRA, you can actually trade within your Roth IRA account and guess what, there's no capital gains tax. Just think about that moving forward. All right, so here's what we get into. Now let's talk about selling. So I know some of this isn't very popular opinion. Some people say you should never sell and that's fine. But for some of you who think to yourself, maybe I should sell just a little bit. Well, let's take a peek at that. So I'm gonna pull this video from Dante Des Crypto. That is my website that is 100% free. It will always be free. You can sign up, all I require is an email. I don't even spam you. I just tell you when I'm gonna upload or when I upload something of interest. So this particular video is in module three investing. And again, the reason why we're doing this today is because I thought it would be prudent, especially as we start to get into these bull markets and things are really ripping off. The question then is, when do I sell? What's happening? Should I ever sell? And then what are some indicators to look at? So I'm gonna come down here. Here's a couple of good videos to check out. Here's the actual indicators we're gonna take a look at. And here's the video itself. So let me bring this in. And let me present this so you can actually hear it the right way. So it's perfect audio and go from there. Well, without further ado, let's do a quick watch along and go from there. One visual asset news. It's the Dogecoin millionaire. And this was a great video from Graham Steven. And he went and just talked to this gentleman, Dogecoin millionaire, who invested roughly $180,000 of his money into Dogecoin. And that wasn't really even a penny for quite a long time ago. And it went from less than a penny, there's $180,000 turned into $1.2 million in roughly 69 days. Unfortunately, as time went on, he did the same mistake I think we all do, which is believing that it's going to go to the moon. And it's gonna go to a dollar or $2 or whatever it was supposed to be. And unfortunately, as time went on, his portfolio took a look and in not too much time, it was down to $323,000. And that is, this was shot about three months ago or so. And I'm sure it's down even more so. Today, it is September 21st, Bitcoin's around $19,000, the thing is around $1,200 and so on and so forth. So I want you to have this ingrained into your memory because Graham's gonna ask him a very simple question and he's gonna answer it. And I want you to remember exactly what he says. Just take a listen. Now, do you regret holding so long? Ooh. Yeah, yeah. You know, I'm human. Yeah, I should have sold some. So yeah, that's another statement. And actually that 1.2 million actually ballooned up to 3 million before it crashed down to probably now around $200,000. So remember, you can write it all the way up and you can write it all the way down. The choice is up to you. Which leads me to my next point, which is there's a phrase I use a lot, which is time in the market is more important than timing the market. And it's very true. I mean, the longer that you're staying in, usually the better is. That's for a very broad time horizon. I will just remind you that today it's 2020 September. And we are looking at a Bitcoin price of $18,846. And as a reminder, if you would have bought in December, 2017, the 16th of December, you would have been up $19,040. You would be down $1,000 right now on your Bitcoin. Again, it's all about your time horizon and how long you want to expand yourself out. But along the way, there may be opportunities to take some profits. Nobody ever went broke taking profits. And again, I can not stress this enough. I'm not a financial advisor. I cannot give you financial advice. You have to do your own research. These are just the things that I am actually doing. So we take a look here. The thing that we really should be talking about is what everybody should know first, which is before selling or anything. You have to define your trader type and you need to know your exit before your entry. What I'm talking about is this. There are many various types of traders out there and investors. There are scalpers. Those just take seconds and they move very quickly. Day traders, minutes to hours. You have swing traders, which they could open up position, wait days. Position traders could wait weeks or months. So then you got somebody like myself is like a cycle trader, which takes years to play out. Now, I kind of go between position trader and a cycle trader because I wait for quite a long time to unpack my bags as they were. And then also, if you want to just do a quick down and dirty example of profit, this is the most basic one you could probably think of. So let's just say you want to, and you want to know your exit before you get into it, this would be an example. You say, okay, I'm going to buy Bitcoin at whatever it is, $10,000, Bitcoin doubles its price to 20. I'm going to sell about 11K, which is my initial position, plus a little bit of profit. And I'm going to let the $9,000 that I have into Bitcoin just ride. Maybe it goes up to a million dollars and becomes the reserve world currency and I am loaded for the rest of my life. Maybe, but that is just one example. And I will tell you this, for the examples that I've used, the things that I've done, this was my exit strategy last cycle. And it was just taking fractals, just taking a look at where things had gone in the past. And extrapolated those numbers to see where they could potentially go. And some were wrong and some were pretty solid on. Now Ethereum was wrong. I thought I was going to $10,000. And I would dollar cost average in and dollar cost average out. And unfortunately, I was only able to pick up the very first point and sold along the way, but not too much. Chainlink, it was actually right. I thought it would go to $35, and it actually went to $51. And the problem with this one, I think everybody knows is that, unfortunately, I had a plan in place, but I didn't stick to my plan. And if I would have stuck to my plan, I would have made a lot more money on selling off Chainlink, because right now it's worth way less than $26. Bitcoin, again, I thought I'd go to $150,000. That didn't happen. Also EOS, that did not happen. I thought I'd go to $30,000. That was a bad one. Cardano, I thought I'd go to $30. It did, roughly, I think it was, the all-time high was $297,000 there. Number third, superior. And then Theta, I actually got that one right. I thought I'd go to $10,000. I went to $14, but these are just the examples I used before, but I think there's a better way. And I put that video out not too long ago, and you can find this on the website at Dante Descripto, which I took a look at CycleTop callers, the PyCycleTop, NUP, All Time and Risk, and also the Cycle Bottom, MBRVZ, to your MA, Pwell Multiple and Reserve Risk, to just get a better assessment of what could be considered the actual CycleTop. But there's one more thing we really need to answer ourselves, and that is that what kind of investor are you? Because you have to understand that the more conservative you are, the safer you are, but maybe not as great as returns. And this is the thing that I always struggle with. So as an ultra-conservative type of investor, that could be you, this is how I started out, 100% of everything I bought was in Bitcoin. And that was it. I didn't do any altcoins, nothing like that. As time went on, I got a little less ultra-conservative, just a conservative, and I have Bitcoin, about 90% of my portfolio, then 10% was Ethereum. And then you could go down that rabbit hole and go, well, I'm gonna be a risk taker, and I'm gonna go 50% of Bitcoin, and maybe 40% of the top 20, and then 10% could be 30 to number 1000 of the cryptos and get really down there, or you could be just a total degenerate, and just go, okay, Bitcoin, I know is the safest one, but I just want a sliver, and everything else will be in like the number 200 to 3000 S coins and things like that. So when you look at these, remember, that if you're getting into these investments, the risk versus reward, it is a lot of these are very risky, but the reward are high, but then in currency you have the chance of losing everything. And before you knock any of the degenerate moves, I will just say this, we have two channels, this is digital asset news, the other one is Dan D. Gen, and so far they've done so well. So Gensokishi, Everdome, Fame, and Sweatcoin. When you look, when we got into these prices, Gensokishi was 0.01, about a penny and a half, all the time I was $1.62, not too bad, Everdome, Fame, Sweatcoin, so on and so forth. So the thing that you have to remember is, when I'm getting into these cryptos, what is my risk versus reward? So the best way to take a look at that is to show you through a website called dcabtc.com, and also dcadashcc.com. dcabtc, it only shows you Bitcoin. I'm just gonna show you a quick example here. So let's just say, oh, for example, that you have $100, and you wanna purchase $100 worth of Bitcoin every week. And if you do that for the last six months, you would be down almost a percentage, just buying things because the market's awful. But let's just back this up for a second. Let's just go over the last, I don't know, five years. Five years, and we go five years, and we accumulate it. And in actuality, if you would have done that $100 every week, you would get $26,100. Your total value for Bitcoin would be $105,000, and which is not too bad. However, at the top, it would have been $162,000, depending on when you actually sold. So that's just Bitcoin itself. What I wanna show you, of course, is that's pretty good. It's a very safe, safer play in the most volatile market. But what if you do that with Ethereum? That's why I like this website, DCA-CC. I'm gonna do this. Let's do $100 again. And we do that on a weekly basis. And I picked January 12th, 2018, which was one of its highs back in the last cycle, to today. And I'm gonna click on Calculate. And you can just see right here that, yeah, it was a little bit riskier, Ethereum being what it is. But actually, if you take a look at it, at the peak, you would have invested $20,000, just like we did with Bitcoin, but the balance in fiat or cash would be $339,000. Let's take it one step further. Let's go to Cardano, the same thing. Let's change this up. Let's put $100 every week from the same time, from January 12th, 2018, because of 10 by 19th, 2022. And if we do that, and then, of course, we calculate, we're gonna see that in all honesty, we could have done pretty well. And if we go up here to the very tippy top, we would have invested $19,100, somewhere around there. And we would have had $706,480, which is not bad for five years of work at the very top. Now, it's worth much less. And the problem that we have is people always talk about diamond hands and never selling, and they're just going to give this all to their grandkids at its generational wealth. Look, if you wanna do that, that's fine. I'm not here to judge you or tell you what to do. Again, I'm not a financial advisor. However, when I think about these things, I think that's not what I'm going to do, and these are not my goals. The things that I do are what I do. And of course, you can take this information and roll it into your research to do your best thing for whatever best suits you as far as investments. So I also, when I take a look at this, when everything goes up, you start to think, oh, I just need to keep going up and going up because that's what happens in markets, right? Well, no. However, there is an opposite thought process, which is this is from CNBC, and it talks about how the chart below shows how if you invested $10,000 into the S&P 500 index for a 20-year period between 1999 and 2018, this is how it would have performed. If you had just left it there and never touched it, your $10,000 would be a whopping $30,000, which is pretty good for doing absolutely nothing. I'll be honest with you. And the average annual return is 5.6%. But if you would have just missed 10 of the best days, 10 of the best rallies that were out there, your value would be less than half of what it is. So your average annual return, it's about 2%. Missed 20 best days, negative 0.3. Missed 30 best days, and so on and so forth. So again, when we talk about time in the market is more important than timing, that is true. The thing that we have to remember is that at some point, we're going to need to sell, at least for me. That's not for you. And I will just finish up with this. Those example I gave you with Cardano, an Ethereum, a Bitcoin, and even this one with S&P, things look pretty rosy. But remember, it's still a risky market, no matter what you get into. Here's two examples, a dash of salt. So these are two crypto projects that were pretty prevalent in the last 2017 bull run. You can see Dash did an amazing job of going from 11, gosh, $3, $4, all the way to 1,000, almost $1,500. And then of course, what did it do after that? Not much at all. And then off we go, and that's absolutely nothing. And there's a worse example here, which is salt. Salt was a lending platform, did very well. SEC got involved and there was a lawsuit and it was almost at $15. And what has it done after that? Not too much. So remember, things that you do could be extremely risky, depending on what you get into. So having said all that and the warnings and things like that, let's talk about how everything starts with Bitcoin, the pie cycle top. So, okay. So before we go on, can everybody hear me? Just wanna make sure. Because there's a point that I need to make here, which I think is pretty important moving forward. Now when we talked about it, we talked about that dash of salt, and we said, you know, hey, some of these things are not going to make it. And it's very true and we gave you a couple of examples. But on top of that, let me pull up this screen right here. We did, we took a look at, it's called did it all time high. And there's a link in the description, like everything else that you can find this actual chart. And let me blow this up so you can see what I'm talking about. So when we took a look at it, I took a look at the 2017, 2018 highs. And I took a look at December 2017, the top 53 cryptos that were out there. Bitcoin's always been number one. I think it'll always be number one. I could be wrong, sound off in the comment section. But I took a look at all these coins over the top of the three as far as December 17, 2017. And I took a look at 2021 high, highs of 2021 for the next cycle. How many of these actually hit just their all-time highs? You would think it'd be very easy, right? Because I mean, there was more liquidity. We went from just over a trillion to 3.2, 3.3 trillion, correct, in the comment section. So you'd think that most of these that were in the top of the three on 2017 would definitely hit their all-time highs from 2017. Well, guess what? Only 11, 11 out of 53, that's 20%, one out of five hit their all-time highs moving forward. So again, when you think about this play, this cycle, and you're in love with an altcoin, that's fine. And I'm not here to dissuade you from that because you've done your own research and you're on top of things. And I don't know anything better than you know. But I'm just telling you that as far as like last time, when 2017, 2021, 2021, there's only 20% in the top 53, moving forward into the next bullhorn, which could be who knows, 2024, 2026. You have to understand that some of these will not hit their all-time highs. And it's gonna hurt because you're like, what the heck, I did my research, I looked at it and it just didn't get adopted for whatever reason. So just, I wanna make this extremely clear so you're protected and maybe you think about diversifying a little bit more and doing what you think is best for you. Okay, so let me get off my soap box and then let me bring this up so you can hear the rest of this. Okay, if you're not familiar, we did a pretty in-depth video about the PyCycle Top. Again, find that it's Dan DeGis Crypto. And when we took a look at it, PyCycle Top was created in 2019. Retroactively or retrospectively, it could call the top almost to a T. And then it almost called the top in 2021, a little bit off, but that's just how it is. So what I wanna take a look at was, well, how accurate was it? And of course, if you're not familiar, PyCycle Top used the 111-day moving average and it newly created multiple of the 350-day moving average, which is 350 times two. When the 111-day moving average moves up and crosses the 350-day, we see that it coincides with the price of Bitcoin peaking. And I just thought about that. I go, maybe let's see how accurate it actually was. So here's the PyCycle Top and how it's called the top in every one of the cycles. And just for reference, I wanna talk about cycles. I mean, the four-year cycles for Bitcoin, everything starts with a halving. The first one was that in 2012, you have a halving and you get an all-time high and there's a dip and there's a reset. And the same thing happened again in 2016. There was a halving, 270 all-time high, a dip and a reset. And then coincidentally, the same thing happened in 2020. We had a halving all-time high and we're seeing a major dip and probably on the reset in 2023, but I think we'll be back on track in 2024, 25, 26, 27. This thing's gonna work themselves out. So when we take a look at, again, PyCycle Top, the first one, the first cycle, it actually was very close, not perfect, but pretty close. So you can see here that this point, lower part here where it has the price of $141, that's what it retroactively, retrospectively took a look and I go, that was the top, but actually it wasn't. It was $214. So that was the first one. The second one is even more strange. You had, it called it out at 1,090, when in actuality, it was 1,084, so pretty darn close. And this was the only time you had a double top in roughly the same time period, the same cycle in 2013. So it did in April and it did in December, which is actually, let me rephrase that. It said in November, 29, 2013 was the PyCycle Top. And then in April, 2013 was the PyCycle Top, which is very interesting because in 2021, the PyCycle Top was in April 11th, 2021, but the actual top was in November, 2021. Just something to think about. So second one, now here comes the third one. In 2017, it nailed it, absolutely nailed it. And there is no higher, it's hit it at 19,326, or roughly around there. So I think no one could fault you for selling a little $100 off here and there. And that's a good one. And then the fourth one, of course, like we just talked about, April 11th, 2021, the PyCycle Top called the top at $60,148 when the actual top was November 8th, 2021 at $67,492. So again, these are still good numbers, but you have to remember this. Everything starts with the Bitcoin pump and then Alt's pump. So I took a look at the historical snapshot of 11th of April, 2021 and Bitcoin, the price was 60,000, Ethereum was 2,100, Finance Coin was 525, XRP $36, and so on and so forth. And what I did was I took a look at the top ones and just compared what the PyCycle Top top price points were compared to what they actually were on different dates. So Bitcoin, of course, April 11th was 60,000, the real one was on November 8th and it was at 67,000, so 11% different from the top. So even if you would have sold here, you'd only be 11% away from the top, not too bad. Ethereum, you were off quite a bit actually. April 11th, it was 2,157, November 8th, 2020, that was 55%. Finance Coin was only 22% off, not too bad. XRP, 24%, Cardano was way off. April 11th was 127, and actually P to 296, that's a 60% difference. However, Polkadot, Litecoin, and Uniswap were pretty darn close, 23, 34, 30, and the biggest one that was the biggest outlier was Solana, it was 2,793 of the PyCycle price, the real all-time high price, 259 on November 6th. So that would have been an issue, however, this is what I always think about, or I'm starting to think about a lot more now, which is DCA in and DCA out. I'm on a dollar-cost average in, like we all know everybody talks about on YouTube just about ad nauseam, but I think that's just half of the equation, you have to dollar-cost average out. And what I'm going to do, and I hit that PyCycle top on the next one, because we had a long way to go, we have a very, very long way to go when that 111-day moving average crosses over, I will be selling 50% of all of my crypto, and I'll tell you exactly why later. I'll be selling 50% of all my crypto. Does that mean that I will miss out on some tops, some various ones? Yes, like maybe a theorem, or something that's even in the top 100, I could definitely be missing out, but that's okay because it's all about averages. So I'll be selling 50% of my crypto, and then I'll be waiting for some different signs, and I'll sell on a 20%, and then 10% later down the road. I will not hit all the tops, and my goal is to hit 60% to 80% of the tops. I will not hit 100%, I will not buy at the absolute bottom, just doesn't work like that, and it's going to take a lot of pressure off me. Last time, I think it was just dumb luck of what I got to. And I think this time, I'm gonna take a little bit more look at some indicators, but remember this, everything starts after the Bitcoin PyCycle Top, which we're gonna play into right now. Okay, so I hope that, hold on, first of all, I hope that section made a lot of sense because it all really comes down to is like, people say, well, I'm gonna hit this, I'm gonna sell everything, and if you do that, I think you're gonna hit off, you're gonna miss out on some massive gains, but I just showed you, especially Solana. I mean, April 11th, it was whatever, the same price it is right now, actually, and then I went up to $250 or whatever it was. So it's important, if you're gonna dollar-cost average in, I think it's important for me to dollar-cost average out, of course, you do whatever you do. And then of course, you don't feel like, ah, crap, I missed it, because there's nothing worse, and I saw this in the chats right now, there's nothing worse than when you sell, and all of a sudden it takes off, which is another meme that you can play into. It's more important, I feel, like if you're gonna take some profits and take it along the way, that you just kind of ladder out, and then you don't feel so bad, and of course, there's some indicators, and one of those, and this is just the first one, is the PyCycle Top. Now we're gonna get into some other things, which I think will help you to gauge it a little bit better, moving forward. So let's go into that. So once again, when the PyCycle Top hits, I'm gonna take a look at, not just the PyCycle Top indicator, because that is the first one I'm gonna look at, but there's various ones I'm definitely gonna look at, and that is the net unrealized profit and loss. I'm gonna also take a look at historic risk levels, MBRVZ score, and the, well, multiple, just to get a bearing. Now I don't wanna do too much analysis and get paralysis by analysis. I just wanna look at these and go from there to see if I'm in the right ranges. Again, I'm not here to time the absolute top at 100%, or time the absolute bottoms. I'm just trying to get close as I possibly can. So retrospectively, if we look back at, we know the PyCycle Top, the top was April 11th, 2021. So if I was to, on that day, take a look at the NUPL, let me just blow this up here. And what I like about these, these are, this is from looking at Bitcoin, and these charts are available for free, they're high quality, I love to use them, first of all, because they're free and they're great, and it makes things very simple, right? When you're in the pink range, it's probably a good idea to, because this is when everybody's greedy, probably a good idea to take a little bit of profits, maybe, and also in the orange part as well, that's the most anxiety. When it gets down to the green area, probably a decent time to think about accumulating. We'll talk about this at length on the channel, but if we take a look here, we can see this expanded view, and we can take a look all the way back to 2010 and go forward. So what I'm gonna do here is of course, we know that the PyCycle Top was April 11th, so I will zoom back in so you can see it in all its glory and just take a look at where we're at. So again, if I was looking at the PyCycle Top, and I think, okay, April 11th, the 111-day moving average crossed over, so this could be the time to sell, maybe I'll take a look at the NUPL just to make sure, and just so everybody's on the same page. And again, we covered this at length on the last video, have a plan, but just to make sure everybody's here. When we take a look at the NUPL, the indicator is derived from market value and realized value. Market value is the current price of Bitcoin, multiplied by the number of coins in circulation. Realized value takes the price of each Bitcoin when it was last moved. So you've got some whales that haven't moved them for quite some time when Bitcoin was 100 bucks. So by subtracting realized value from market value, we calculate unrealized profit and losses. Unrealized profit loss estimates the total profit loss, paper losses in Bitcoin held by investors or profits. So again, as time goes on and prices fluctuate, you can see this is a pretty good one to take a look at. So again, if I'm taking a look at April 11th, I'm in the orange zone, which so I could say, okay, well, it's not down here and it's not in this freebie zone or point of no return, capitulation, hope, optimization. And yeah, this could be one. Now I'm all the way not into the red zone, but we haven't seen that for quite some time. So if I was looking at this, I'm like, okay, that's the second indicator that looks like it might be a good chance for me to start to take profits. Also, if we take a look at the historic risk levels, now this is from Ben's website into the Cryptiverse. And it's a great website, links in the description. It is a paid website, but it's worth it. I'm gonna tell you why. Because we take a look at these risk levels, it's another indicator which could say, okay, this looks quite interesting. So let me reset the zoom again. Again, the risk levels, as they go up, the higher they go, the more risky it is. So it's a good idea to think about taking profits when we start to peak, especially above the 0.9 reference range. I think we can all agree there. There's only been one, two, three, four, five points in history in roughly 12 years. So again, if I wanna take a look at, I wanna zoom in to this area around the April, 2021. Where are we here? So February, January, March, April 11th. I'm actually at, the Bitcoin risk level is 0.7, almost 0.8. Again, back here, it looks like it was pretty risky. However, we didn't see the PyCycle top yet, even though it was a risky, but it's high enough for me to say, okay, it's not below five, it's not below four. It's pretty risky. Again, that will be a check for me to move on. Another one would be the MBRBZ score. So I take a look at this and the MBRBZ, it's a Bitcoin chart uses blockchain analysis and by periods when Bitcoin is extremely over or undervalued, it takes the market value, price of Bitcoin, multiply the number of coins to the realized value rather than taking the current price of Bitcoin, it always takes the price of each Bitcoin when it's last moved again. And the Z score is a standard deviation that pulls out all the extremes. So again, if we take a look here, let me just blow this up so we can see it. I'm looking for, again, April, February. Again, February was a good time, but it wasn't too great to that time. I think we're playing around 48, 50,000, so it could have been okay. But down here, March, where are we? March, March, March, April, April 11th. So the Z score again, above five, not in the orange zone. So I'd say, well, that doesn't really tick what I thought I would, but I've got a couple other indicators, that's not bad. And last. Okay, so before we go on about that one, this is what I've been talking about for a while now, is that the last bull runs in a little bit off, especially with the indicators, and this is why you should probably take a look at multiple indicators before you say, you know what, bicycle top nailed it. I'm just gonna use that one and that's it. I think you have to really, it's important that you get a lot of different indicators because of things that happen such as this. And we've taken a look, and I know Dubb put out that Sam Bakeman Freed is on the stand right now in the court case against FTX. And we know that Sam Bakeman Freed and Caroline Ellison for the CEO of FTX and a lot of different people in FTX, they conspired to manipulate the price of Bitcoin to keep it below 20K. That wasn't just me saying it, that wasn't a bunch of trolls saying it, that was her in her testimony before the court. So we know that there was a lot of shenanigans going on behind the scenes. There was a lot of things that happened with not only FTX, which had a massive amount to keep that price low. It also, we had three hours capital screwing things up for us. He also had the voyagers out there loaning to three hours capital and then losing all their money. He had Celsius and also BlockFi. So in all these things that were happening behind the scenes, there was a lot of manipulation, which I always felt that the last bull cycle was just straight up shenanigans. And I just felt like we should have gone a heck of a lot higher. And that's why I think this one is better. I know we don't wanna hear that as far as like with regulation, but regulations coming, this will probably be the last unregulated bull market that we see moving forward. I think it's gonna be phenomenal moving forward. But again, that's why you use a bunch of different indicators because not one will tell you everything. All right, so let's keep going with this. And lastly, I'll take a look at the Puell multiple just to be sure. And the Puell multiple looks at the supply side of Bitcoin as far as miners and the revenue. It's calculated by dividing the daily issuance value of bitcoins by the 360 day moving average. It uses the upper red band of the chart to show when minor revenues and USD terms are significantly higher. Okay, so again, if we take a look at, let's see right around here and we go to the April points, April 11th and almost in that red band right there. So I would say yes. So again, I took the Puell multiple, which is just for proof of work for miners and all that. MBRVC score, not so much. The risk level, I would say yes. NUPL and of course the PyCycle top is the one that was it. So at this point, I would say yes, I would have sold if I would have done it correctly. And this is what I'll be doing moving forward. So that would take care of the part for Bitcoin. Now, the next question that you may have is, well, that's great for all these things. But what about for the alts? Because it's a little bit different as we just saw, maybe the same exact thing. And the way that we can do that is using Ben's website. So did you know that PyCycle top 11 day moving average, cross over 300 today, moving average times two can be done with Ethereum. It can be done with Binance coin, XRP, Cardano, Solana, no, all these things. And it can be done in one place on Ben's website and in the cryptoverse. So again, we want to take a look at all of them. So let's take Ethereum. Yeah, there we go, Ethereum. So the PyCycle top for Ethereum doesn't really work out too hot, honestly, because it's telling you that it crossed over. You're looking at 21st of May, 2017, when the ETH price is 148. But in all honesty, it went to over almost $1,500. And the last one I did, that's too bad, 7th of March again, 17, almost $2,000. So it'd still be 50% off. That's not too great. So again, what I would do is I would say, well, because remember, everything starts with PyCycle top and Bitcoin shooting up to the stratosphere and then come the alt. So what I would do is I would just wait and see, well, maybe we'll take a look at the NUPL. Let me change this to Ethereum. And what I want to do, actually, let me reset the zoom. You'll notice here for the NUPL, over on the look, looking at Bitcoin, it has on the right-hand side, it has the Bitcoin price. On the left-hand side, it has percentages as far as how much it's gone up or down. And this, of course, will be 100% of max range or where we were at the very, very tippy top. And of course, negative almost 50% or 42% down here. However, take a look over here for Ben's. For the NUPL, it's a little bit different. We've got the market cap over here and the NUPL ratio, which goes up to positive 0.5 and down to negative 3. Okay, we can see as we zoom out that the baseline level's around, well, of course we have zero here and it goes down pretty negatively across the board. But if we take a look here, again, what we want to take a look is we want to see around after April of 2021 and what happened after there. So if I was me and I would take a look at this, again, I can't take a look forward because I would be looking at this in real time. So let's just say I'm back in April 11th right here at 0.479. And I think if I look back, I say, well, the top last or beforehand was 0.6. So maybe I want to get a little closer, maybe 0.55 or somewhere around there. Because maybe that's not it because I know that Bitcoin tops and then the alt start the top. So anything after April 11th, I'd probably say it might be a good time. So let's see here, 0.51, maybe not. So right around here, 5152. So right around here, what's this? The third of May, 2021, 0.5. I'd probably want to get rid of 50% of my Ethereum at this point. So 0.56, that was a third of May, 2021. If we take a look here, I don't know, third of May, where would that be? Not bad, 3,500. So we missed it by about 1,000 roughly. And again, I will never hit the top, but I think it's a good way just to take a look at things of where we're at and go from there. Again, once I get 50%, if it goes up some more, let's say it's across another, goes up another 10, 20%. Well, I can sell 20% later because I have things in reserves. I will never sell all my crypto, but I'll probably sell a big chunk. So that is that part. And also if we take a look at MBRVZ score, let's see what that would tell us. Well, again, we're at 2021 and this is Bitcoin, I need to change that to Ethereum. Right here, let's zoom in. So, well, this looks tasty. See this one right here? Again, same thing, 13th of March. I'm looking at these points. If I'm looking at anything above four, this would all be good times to sell. Again, taking a look at different charts and different graphs just to get an idea of where I'm potentially at. Historical risk levels, let's take a look at ETH. And let's blow this up a little better so we can see it. So again, above 0.9 is a good time. When do I get 0? Okay, 10th of May, the same thing. And yeah, 3,400, 3,500. Again, not gonna time the top, but it's okay. And then lastly, well, the Pwell multiple would have worked when it was proof of work, but now it's proof of stake, so that just kind of goes to the wayside. Same thing with Cardano and so on and so forth. So again, you can use anything that you want to, but it's putting together these different charts just to give you an idea of where things are going and just say, okay, okay, that looks like it's a good time to potentially sell. That looks like a good time, sort of time. And over time, and using multiple pieces of data, you can make the best decision for yourself. Again, this is not financial advice, this is the things that I'm gonna be doing very closely as we move forward. And there was one last piece that I forgot to talk about which is this, I believe in the four year cycles like we talked about at length. However, that doesn't mean that this will happen in 2025. It may happen in 2024 or even 2023 or maybe even 2026 or seven, I don't know. But the thing is you have to be aware of is you have to be conscious of the changes that could potentially take form. Don't get married to one idea like I did in the past and say like, it has to happen at this, it has to happen at this way. Just take a look at the data. And when the data changes, you change. But the things that I see right here, these are things that I will still look for. Picycle top, MBRVZ, well multiple, well for Bitcoin. And of course, the risk factors. If we can take a look at all those things, I think we can get a better understanding of when to potentially sell. Now I'll leave me to my last two points which are exchanges and the mentality. So I was muted. So that was it pretty much because we're gonna go over exchanges and I just say that there's only a couple of exchanges that Americans can use, which right now is Coinbase. I don't even think Gemini is being sued right now. So who knows, Kraken and for specific areas, I think crypto.com is also being used. And of course, if you're outside of America, congratulations, you're not oppressed like we are and you can use pretty much whatever you want. But that's it for the video. I hope that helped a little bit. Now I know you might have some questions about that one, a lot of data, a lot of information to go over. So we've been here for 45 minutes. Thanks so much. I appreciate it. Like today's video, thumbs up, subscribe, all that good stuff.